Four-week inhibition of the renin-angiotensin system in spontaneously hypertensive rats results in persistently lower blood pressure with reduced kidney renin and changes in expression of relevant gene networks

AIMS

Prevention of human hypertension is an important challenge and has been achieved in experimental models. Brief treatment with renin-angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitors permanently reduces the genetic hypertension of the spontaneously hypertensive rat (SHR). The kidney is involved in this fascinating phenomenon, but relevant changes in gene expression are unknown.

METHODS

In SHR, we studied the effect of treatment between 10 and 14 weeks of age with the angiotensin receptor blocker, losartan, or the angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor, perindopril (with controls for non-specific effects of lowering BP) on differential RNA expression, DNA methylation and renin immunolabelling in the kidney at 20 weeks of age.

RESULTS

RNA sequencing revealed a 6-fold increase in renin gene (Ren) expression during losartan treatment (P < 0.0001). Six weeks after losartan, arterial pressure remained lower (P = 0.006), yet kidney Ren showed reduced expression by 23% after losartan (P = 0.03) and by 43% after perindopril (P = 1.4 x 10-6) associated with increased DNA methylation (P = 0.04). Immunolabelling confirmed reduced cortical renin after earlier RAS blockade (P = 0.002). RNA sequencing identified differential expression of mRNAs, miRNAs and lncRNAs with evidence of networking and co-regulation. These included 13 candidate genes (Grhl1, Ammecr1l, Hs6st1, Nfil3, Fam221a, Lmo4, Adamts1, Cish, Hif3a, Bcl6, Rad54l2, Adap1, Dok4), the miRNA miR-145-3p and the lncRNA AC115371. Gene ontogeny analyses revealed that these networks were enriched with genes relevant to BP, RAS and the kidneys.

CONCLUSIONS

Early RAS inhibition in SHR resets genetic pathways and networks resulting in a legacy of reduced Ren expression and BP persisting for a minimum of 6 weeks.

Fast and accurate joint inference of coancestry parameters for populations and/or individuals

We introduce a fast, new algorithm for inferring from allele count data the FST parameters describing genetic distances among a set of populations and/or unrelated diploid individuals, and a tree with branch lengths corresponding to FST values. The tree can reflect historical processes of splitting and divergence, but seeks to represent the actual genetic variance as accurately as possible with a tree structure. We generalise two major approaches to defining FST, via correlations and mismatch probabilities of sampled allele pairs, which measure shared and non-shared components of genetic variance. A diploid individual can be treated as a population of two gametes, which allows inference of coancestry coefficients for individuals as well as for populations, or a combination of the two. A simulation study illustrates that our fast method-of-moments estimation of FST values, simultaneously for multiple populations/individuals, gains statistical efficiency over pairwise approaches when the population structure is close to tree-like. We apply our approach to genome-wide genotypes from the 26 worldwide human populations of the 1000 Genomes Project. We first analyse at the population level, then a subset of individuals and in a final analysis we pool individuals from the more homogeneous populations. This flexible analysis approach gives advantages over traditional approaches to population structure/coancestry, including visual and quantitative assessments of long-standing questions about the relative magnitudes of within- and between-population genetic differences.

LDAK-GBAT: Fast and powerful gene-based association testing using summary statistics

We present LDAK-GBAT, a tool for gene-based association testing using summary statistics from genome-wide association studies that is computationally efficient, produces well-calibrated p values, and is significantly more powerful than existing tools. LDAK-GBAT takes approximately 30 min to analyze imputed data (2.9M common, genic SNPs), requiring less than 10 Gb memory. It shows good control of type 1 error given an appropriate reference panel. Across 109 phenotypes (82 from the UK Biobank, 18 from the Million Veteran Program, and nine from the Psychiatric Genetics Consortium), LDAK-GBAT finds on average 19% (SE: 1%) more significant genes than the existing tool sumFREGAT-ACAT, with even greater gains in comparison with MAGMA, GCTA-fastBAT, sumFREGAT-SKAT-O, and sumFREGAT-PCA.

Genome-wide association mapping of Hagberg falling number, protein content, test weight, and grain yield in U.K. wheat

Association mapping using crop cultivars allows identification of genetic loci of direct relevance to breeding. Here, 150 U.K. wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars genotyped with 23,288 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were used for genome-wide association studies (GWAS) using historical phenotypic data for grain protein content, Hagberg falling number (HFN), test weight, and grain yield. Power calculations indicated experimental design would enable detection of quantitative trait loci (QTL) explaining ≥20% of the variation (PVE) at a relatively high power of >80%, falling to 40% for detection of a SNP with an R² ≥ .5 with the same QTL. Genome-wide association studies identified marker-trait associations for all four traits. For HFN (h ² = .89), six QTL were identified, including a major locus on chromosome 7B explaining 49% PVE and reducing HFN by 44 s. For protein content (h ² = 0.86), 10 QTL were found on chromosomes 1A, 2A, 2B, 3A, 3B, and 6B, together explaining 48.9% PVE. For test weight, five QTL were identified (one on 1B and four on 3B; 26.3% PVE). Finally, 14 loci were identified for grain yield (h ² = 0.95) on eight chromosomes (1A, 2A, 2B, 2D, 3A, 5B, 6A, 6B; 68.1% PVE), of which five were located within 16 Mbp of genetic regions previously identified as under breeder selection in European wheat. Our study demonstrates the utility of exploiting historical crop datasets, identifying genomic targets for independent validation, and ultimately for wheat genetic improvement.

Disentangling Signatures of Selection Before and After European Colonization in Latin Americans

Throughout human evolutionary history, large-scale migrations have led to intermixing (i.e., admixture) between previously separated human groups. Although classical and recent work have shown that studying admixture can yield novel historical insights, the extent to which this process contributed to adaptation remains underexplored. Here, we introduce a novel statistical model, specific to admixed populations, that identifies loci under selection while determining whether the selection likely occurred post-admixture or prior to admixture in one of the ancestral source populations. Through extensive simulations, we show that this method is able to detect selection, even in recently formed admixed populations, and to accurately differentiate between selection occurring in the ancestral or admixed population. We apply this method to genome-wide SNP data of ∼4,000 individuals in five admixed Latin American cohorts from Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. Our approach replicates previous reports of selection in the human leukocyte antigen region that are consistent with selection post-admixture. We also report novel signals of selection in genomic regions spanning 47 genes, reinforcing many of these signals with an alternative, commonly used local-ancestry-inference approach. These signals include several genes involved in immunity, which may reflect responses to endemic pathogens of the Americas and to the challenge of infectious disease brought by European contact. In addition, some of the strongest signals inferred to be under selection in the Native American ancestral groups of modern Latin Americans overlap with genes implicated in energy metabolism phenotypes, plausibly reflecting adaptations to novel dietary sources available in the Americas.

Bayesian inference of ancestral recombination graphs

We present a novel algorithm, implemented in the software ARGinfer, for probabilistic inference of the Ancestral Recombination Graph under the Coalescent with Recombination. Our Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm takes advantage of the Succinct Tree Sequence data structure that has allowed great advances in simulation and point estimation, but not yet probabilistic inference. Unlike previous methods, which employ the Sequentially Markov Coalescent approximation, ARGinfer uses the Coalescent with Recombination, allowing more accurate inference of key evolutionary parameters. We show using simulations that ARGinfer can accurately estimate many properties of the evolutionary history of the sample, including the topology and branch lengths of the genealogical tree at each sequence site, and the times and locations of mutation and recombination events. ARGinfer approximates posterior probability distributions for these and other quantities, providing interpretable assessments of uncertainty that we show to be well calibrated. ARGinfer is currently limited to tens of DNA sequences of several hundreds of kilobases, but has scope for further computational improvements to increase its applicability.

Genome-wide association, prediction and heritability in bacteria with application to Streptococcus pneumoniae

Whole-genome sequencing has facilitated genome-wide analyses of association, prediction and heritability in many organisms. However, such analyses in bacteria are still in their infancy, being limited by difficulties including genome plasticity and strong population structure. Here we propose a suite of methods including linear mixed models, elastic net and LD-score regression, adapted to bacterial traits using innovations such as frequency-based allele coding, both insertion/deletion and nucleotide testing and heritability partitioning. We compare and validate our methods against the current state-of-art using simulations, and analyse three phenotypes of the major human pathogen Streptococcus pneumoniae, including the first analyses of minimum inhibitory concentrations (MIC) for penicillin and ceftriaxone. We show that the MIC traits are highly heritable with high prediction accuracy, explained by many genetic associations under good population structure control. In ceftriaxone MIC, this is surprising because none of the isolates are resistant as per the inhibition zone criteria. We estimate that half of the heritability of penicillin MIC is explained by a known drug-resistance region, which also contributes a quarter of the ceftriaxone MIC heritability. For the within-host carriage duration phenotype, no associations were observed, but the moderate heritability and prediction accuracy indicate a moderately polygenic trait.

Retraction of a peer reviewed article suggests ongoing problems with Australian forensic science

We describe events arising from the case of Joby Rowe, convicted of the homicide of his three month old daughter, and explore what they illustrate about systemic problems in the forensic science community in Australia. A peer reviewed journal article that scrutinized the forensic evidence presented in the Rowe case was retracted by a forensic science journal for reasons unrelated to quality or accuracy, under pressure from forensic medical experts criticized in the article. Details of the retraction obtained through freedom of information mechanisms reveal improper pressure and subversion of publishing processes in order to avoid scrutiny. The retraction was supported by the editorial board and two Australian forensic science societies, which is indicative of serious deficiencies in the leadership of forensic science in Australia. We propose paths forward including blind peer review, publication of expert reports, and a criminal cases review authority, that would help stimulate a culture that encourages scrutiny, and relies on evidence-based rather than eminence-based knowledge.

A genome-wide association study identifies novel gene associations with facial skin wrinkling and mole count in Latin Americans

BACKGROUND

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified genes influencing skin ageing and mole count in Europeans, but little is known about the relevance of these (or other genes) in non-Europeans.

OBJECTIVES

To conduct a GWAS for facial skin ageing and mole count in adults < 40 years old, of mixed European, Native American and African ancestry, recruited in Latin America.

METHODS

Skin ageing and mole count scores were obtained from facial photographs of over 6000 individuals. After quality control checks, three wrinkling traits and mole count were retained for genetic analyses. DNA samples were genotyped with Illumina's HumanOmniExpress chip. Association testing was performed on around 8 703 729 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) across the autosomal genome.

RESULTS

Genome-wide significant association was observed at four genome regions: two were associated with wrinkling (in 1p13·3 and 21q21·2), one with mole count (in 1q32·3) and one with both wrinkling and mole count (in 5p13·2). Associated SNPs in 5p13·2 and in 1p13·3 are intronic within SLC45A2 and VAV3, respectively, while SNPs in 1q32·3 are near the SLC30A1 gene, and those in 21q21·2 occur in a gene desert. Analyses of SNPs in IRF4 and MC1R are consistent with a role of these genes in skin ageing.

CONCLUSIONS

We replicate the association of wrinkling with variants in SLC45A2, IRF4 and MC1R reported in Europeans. We identify VAV3 and SLC30A1 as two novel candidate genes impacting on wrinkling and mole count, respectively. We provide the first evidence that SLC45A2 influences mole count, in addition to variants in this gene affecting melanoma risk in Europeans.

Prediction of eye, hair and skin colour in Latin Americans

Here we evaluate the accuracy of prediction for eye, hair and skin pigmentation in a dataset of > 6500 individuals from Mexico, Colombia, Peru, Chile and Brazil (including genome-wide SNP data and quantitative/categorical pigmentation phenotypes - the CANDELA dataset CAN). We evaluated accuracy in relation to different analytical methods and various phenotypic predictors. As expected from statistical principles, we observe that quantitative traits are more sensitive to changes in the prediction models than categorical traits. We find that Random Forest or Linear Regression are generally the best performing methods. We also compare the prediction accuracy of SNP sets defined in the CAN dataset (including 56, 101 and 120 SNPs for eye, hair and skin colour prediction, respectively) to the well-established HIrisPlex-S SNP set (including 6, 22 and 36 SNPs for eye, hair and skin colour prediction respectively). When training prediction models on the CAN data, we observe remarkably similar performances for HIrisPlex-S and the larger CAN SNP sets for the prediction of hair (categorical) and eye (both categorical and quantitative), while the CAN sets outperform HIrisPlex-S for quantitative, but not for categorical skin pigmentation prediction. The performance of HIrisPlex-S, when models are trained in a world-wide sample (although consisting of 80% Europeans, https://hirisplex.erasmusmc.nl), is lower relative to training in the CAN data (particularly for hair and skin colour). Altogether, our observations are consistent with common variation of eye and hair colour having a relatively simple genetic architecture, which is well captured by HIrisPlex-S, even in admixed Latin Americans (with partial European ancestry). By contrast, since skin pigmentation is a more polygenic trait, accuracy is more sensitive to prediction SNP set size, although here this effect was only apparent for a quantitative measure of skin pigmentation. Our results support the use of HIrisPlex-S in the prediction of categorical pigmentation traits for forensic purposes in Latin America, while illustrating the impact of training datasets on its accuracy.

A GWAS in Latin Americans identifies novel face shape loci, implicating VPS13B and a Denisovan introgressed region in facial variation

To characterize the genetic basis of facial features in Latin Americans, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of more than 6000 individuals using 59 landmark-based measurements from two-dimensional profile photographs and ~9,000,000 genotyped or imputed single-nucleotide polymorphisms. We detected significant association of 32 traits with at least 1 (and up to 6) of 32 different genomic regions, more than doubling the number of robustly associated face morphology loci reported until now (from 11 to 23). These GWAS hits are strongly enriched in regulatory sequences active specifically during craniofacial development. The associated region in 1p12 includes a tract of archaic adaptive introgression, with a Denisovan haplotype common in Native Americans affecting particularly lip thickness. Among the nine previously unidentified face morphology loci we identified is the VPS13B gene region, and we show that variants in this region also affect midfacial morphology in mice.

How can courts take into account the uncertainty in a likelihood ratio?

As legal practitioners and courts become more aware of scientific methods and evidence evaluation, they are demanding measures of the reliability of expert opinion. In particular, there are calls for error rates to accompany opinion evidence in comparative forensic sciences. While error rates or confidence intervals can be useful for those disciplines that claim to identify the source of a trace, the call for these statistical tools has extended to sciences that present opinions in the form of a likelihood ratio. In this article we argue against presenting both a likelihood ratio and numerical measures of its uncertainty. We explain how the LR already encapsulates uncertainty. Instead we consider how sensitivity analyses can be used to guide the presentation of LRs that are informative to the court and not unfair to defendants.

A GWAS in Latin Americans highlights the convergent evolution of lighter skin pigmentation in Eurasia

We report a genome-wide association scan in >6,000 Latin Americans for pigmentation of skin and eyes. We found eighteen signals of association at twelve genomic regions. These include one novel locus for skin pigmentation (in 10q26) and three novel loci for eye pigmentation (in 1q32, 20q13 and 22q12). We demonstrate the presence of multiple independent signals of association in the 11q14 and 15q13 regions (comprising the GRM5/TYR and HERC2/OCA2 genes, respectively) and several epistatic interactions among independently associated alleles. Strongest association with skin pigmentation at 19p13 was observed for an Y182H missense variant (common only in East Asians and Native Americans) in MFSD12, a gene recently associated with skin pigmentation in Africans. We show that the frequency of the derived allele at Y182H is significantly correlated with lower solar radiation intensity in East Asia and infer that MFSD12 was under selection in East Asians, probably after their split from Europeans.

Pigmentation variation in humans is influenced by complex genetic architecture in different populations. Here, the authors perform a genome-wide association analysis involving > 6,000 Latin Americans for pigmentation of skin and eyes, and identify known and novel genetic associations.

Latin Americans show wide-spread Converso ancestry and imprint of local Native ancestry on physical appearance

Historical records and genetic analyses indicate that Latin Americans trace their ancestry mainly to the intermixing (admixture) of Native Americans, Europeans and Sub-Saharan Africans. Using novel haplotype-based methods, here we infer sub-continental ancestry in over 6,500 Latin Americans and evaluate the impact of regional ancestry variation on physical appearance. We find that Native American ancestry components in Latin Americans correspond geographically to the present-day genetic structure of Native groups, and that sources of non-Native ancestry, and admixture timings, match documented migratory flows. We also detect South/East Mediterranean ancestry across Latin America, probably stemming mostly from the clandestine colonial migration of Christian converts of non-European origin (Conversos). Furthermore, we find that ancestry related to highland (Central Andean) versus lowland (Mapuche) Natives is associated with variation in facial features, particularly nose morphology, and detect significant differences in allele frequencies between these groups at loci previously associated with nose morphology in this sample.

Bridging trees for posterior inference on ancestral recombination graphs

We present a new Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, implemented in the software Arbores, for inferring the history of a sample of DNA sequences. Our principal innovation is a bridging procedure, previously applied only for simple stochastic processes, in which the local computations within a bridge can proceed independently of the rest of the DNA sequence, facilitating large-scale parallelization.

In-frame seven amino-acid duplication in AIP arose over the last 3000 years, disrupts protein interaction and stability and is associated with gigantism

OBJECTIVE

Mutations in the aryl hydrocarbon receptor-interacting protein (AIP) gene are associated with pituitary adenoma, acromegaly and gigantism. Identical alleles in unrelated pedigrees could be inherited from a common ancestor or result from recurrent mutation events.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Observational, inferential and experimental study, including: AIP mutation testing; reconstruction of 14 AIP-region (8.3 Mbp) haplotypes; coalescent-based approximate Bayesian estimation of the time to most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of the derived allele; forward population simulations to estimate current number of allele carriers; proposal of mutation mechanism; protein structure predictions; co-immunoprecipitation and cycloheximide chase experiments.

RESULTS

Nine European-origin, unrelated c.805_825dup-positive pedigrees (four familial, five sporadic from the UK, USA and France) included 16 affected (nine gigantism/four acromegaly/two non-functioning pituitary adenoma patients and one prospectively diagnosed acromegaly patient) and nine unaffected carriers. All pedigrees shared a 2.79 Mbp haploblock around AIP with additional haploblocks privately shared between subsets of the pedigrees, indicating the existence of an evolutionarily recent common ancestor, the 'English founder', with an estimated median tMRCA of 47 generations (corresponding to 1175 years) with a confidence interval (9-113 generations, equivalent to 225-2825 years). The mutation occurred in a small tandem repeat region predisposed to slipped strand mispairing. The resulting seven amino-acid duplication disrupts interaction with HSP90 and leads to a marked reduction in protein stability.

CONCLUSIONS

The c.805_825dup allele, originating from a common ancestor, associates with a severe clinical phenotype and a high frequency of gigantism. The mutation is likely to be the result of slipped strand mispairing and affects protein-protein interactions and AIP protein stability.

Diffusion-reaction in one dimension

One-dimensional, periodic and annihilating systems of Brownian motions and random walks are defined and interpreted in terms of sizeless particles which vanish on contact. The generating function and moments of the number pairs of particles which have vanished, given an arbitrary initial arrangement, are derived in terms of known two-particle survival probabilities. Three important special cases are considered: Brownian motion with the particles initially (i) uniformly distributed and (ii) equally spaced on a circle and (iii) random walk on a lattice with initially each site occupied. Results are also given for the infinite annihilating particle systems obtained in the limit as the number of particles and the size of the circle or lattice increase. Application of the results to the theory of diffusion-limited reactions is discussed.

A genome-wide association scan implicates DCHS2, RUNX2, GLI3, PAX1 and EDAR in human facial variation

We report a genome-wide association scan for facial features in ∼6,000 Latin Americans. We evaluated 14 traits on an ordinal scale and found significant association (P values<5 × 10⁻⁸) at single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in four genomic regions for three nose-related traits: columella inclination (4q31), nose bridge breadth (6p21) and nose wing breadth (7p13 and 20p11). In a subsample of ∼3,000 individuals we obtained quantitative traits related to 9 of the ordinal phenotypes and, also, a measure of nasion position. Quantitative analyses confirmed the ordinal-based associations, identified SNPs in 2q12 associated to chin protrusion, and replicated the reported association of nasion position with SNPs in PAX3. Strongest association in 2q12, 4q31, 6p21 and 7p13 was observed for SNPs in the EDAR, DCHS2, RUNX2 and GLI3 genes, respectively. Associated SNPs in 20p11 extend to PAX1. Consistent with the effect of EDAR on chin protrusion, we documented alterations of mandible length in mice with modified Edar funtion.

Humans show great diversity in facial appearance and this variation is highly heritable. Here, Andres Ruiz-Linares and colleagues examined facial features in admixed Latin Americans and identify genome-wide associations for 14 facial traits, including four gene loci (RUNX2, GLI3, DCHS2 and PAX1) influencing nose morphology.

A genome-wide association scan in admixed Latin Americans identifies loci influencing facial and scalp hair features

We report a genome-wide association scan in over 6,000 Latin Americans for features of scalp hair (shape, colour, greying, balding) and facial hair (beard thickness, monobrow, eyebrow thickness). We found 18 signals of association reaching genome-wide significance (P values 5 × 10(-8) to 3 × 10(-119)), including 10 novel associations. These include novel loci for scalp hair shape and balding, and the first reported loci for hair greying, monobrow, eyebrow and beard thickness. A newly identified locus influencing hair shape includes a Q30R substitution in the Protease Serine S1 family member 53 (PRSS53). We demonstrate that this enzyme is highly expressed in the hair follicle, especially the inner root sheath, and that the Q30R substitution affects enzyme processing and secretion. The genome regions associated with hair features are enriched for signals of selection, consistent with proposals regarding the evolution of human hair.

Evidence for a Common Origin of Blacksmiths and Cultivators in the Ethiopian Ari within the Last 4500 Years: Lessons for Clustering-Based Inference

The Ari peoples of Ethiopia are comprised of different occupational groups that can be distinguished genetically, with Ari Cultivators and the socially marginalised Ari Blacksmiths recently shown to have a similar level of genetic differentiation between them (F_ST ≈ 0.023 − 0.04) as that observed among multiple ethnic groups sampled throughout Ethiopia. Anthropologists have proposed two competing theories to explain the origins of the Ari Blacksmiths as (i) remnants of a population that inhabited Ethiopia prior to the arrival of agriculturists (e.g. Cultivators), or (ii) relatively recently related to the Cultivators but presently marginalized in the community due to their trade. Two recent studies by different groups analysed genome-wide DNA from samples of Ari Blacksmiths and Cultivators and suggested that genetic patterns between the two groups were more consistent with model (i) and subsequent assimilation of the indigenous peoples into the expanding agriculturalist community. We analysed the same samples using approaches designed to attenuate signals of genetic differentiation that are attributable to allelic drift within a population. By doing so, we provide evidence that the genetic differences between Ari Blacksmiths and Cultivators can be entirely explained by bottleneck effects consistent with hypothesis (ii). This finding serves as both a cautionary tale about interpreting results from unsupervised clustering algorithms, and suggests that social constructions are contributing directly to genetic differentiation over a relatively short time period among previously genetically similar groups.

While it is widely recognized that DNA patterns vary across world-wide human populations, the primary features that drive these differences are less well understood. As an example, the Ari peoples of Ethiopia are presently socially divided according to occupation, with Ari Blacksmiths marginalised relative to Ari Cultivators. Two competing theories proposed by anthropologists to explain the existence of these occupational groupings suggest very different histories: (i) the Cultivators reflect migrants who moved into the region occupied by ancestors of the Blacksmiths perhaps many thousands of years ago, versus (ii) the Blacksmiths and Cultivators comprised the same ancestral group before the former was marginalised due solely to their trade. Recent genetic studies showed that Blacksmiths and Cultivators are distinguishable by their DNA, and suggested that overall DNA patterns among the two groups were consistent with (i). However, we demonstrate here that interpreting the results of currently popular algorithms that compare DNA is not always straight-forward. Instead we use a variety of analyses to show that (ii) seems a more likely explanation, perhaps illustrating how social marginalisation can lead to groups becoming genetically distinguishable over a relatively short time period.

A genome-wide association study identifies multiple loci for variation in human ear morphology

Here we report a genome-wide association study for non-pathological pinna morphology in over 5,000 Latin Americans. We find genome-wide significant association at seven genomic regions affecting: lobe size and attachment, folding of antihelix, helix rolling, ear protrusion and antitragus size (linear regression P values 2 × 10(-8) to 3 × 10(-14)). Four traits are associated with a functional variant in the Ectodysplasin A receptor (EDAR) gene, a key regulator of embryonic skin appendage development. We confirm expression of Edar in the developing mouse ear and that Edar-deficient mice have an abnormally shaped pinna. Two traits are associated with SNPs in a region overlapping the T-Box Protein 15 (TBX15) gene, a major determinant of mouse skeletal development. Strongest association in this region is observed for SNP rs17023457 located in an evolutionarily conserved binding site for the transcription factor Cartilage paired-class homeoprotein 1 (CART1), and we confirm that rs17023457 alters in vitro binding of CART1.

A simulation approach for change-points on phylogenetic trees

We observe n sequences at each of m sites and assume that they have evolved from an ancestral sequence that forms the root of a binary tree of known topology and branch lengths, but the sequence states at internal nodes are unknown. The topology of the tree and branch lengths are the same for all sites, but the parameters of the evolutionary model can vary over sites. We assume a piecewise constant model for these parameters, with an unknown number of change-points and hence a transdimensional parameter space over which we seek to perform Bayesian inference. We propose two novel ideas to deal with the computational challenges of such inference. Firstly, we approximate the model based on the time machine principle: the top nodes of the binary tree (near the root) are replaced by an approximation of the true distribution; as more nodes are removed from the top of the tree, the cost of computing the likelihood is reduced linearly in n. The approach introduces a bias, which we investigate empirically. Secondly, we develop a particle marginal Metropolis-Hastings (PMMH) algorithm, that employs a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler and can use the first idea. Our time-machine PMMH algorithm copes well with one of the bottle-necks of standard computational algorithms: the transdimensional nature of the posterior distribution. The algorithm is implemented on simulated and real data examples, and we empirically demonstrate its potential to outperform competing methods based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) techniques.

Identification of the remains of King Richard III

In 2012, a skeleton was excavated at the presumed site of the Grey Friars friary in Leicester, the last-known resting place of King Richard III. Archaeological, osteological and radiocarbon dating data were consistent with these being his remains. Here we report DNA analyses of both the skeletal remains and living relatives of Richard III. We find a perfect mitochondrial DNA match between the sequence obtained from the remains and one living relative, and a single-base substitution when compared with a second relative. Y-chromosome haplotypes from male-line relatives and the remains do not match, which could be attributed to a false-paternity event occurring in any of the intervening generations. DNA-predicted hair and eye colour are consistent with Richard's appearance in an early portrait. We calculate likelihood ratios for the non-genetic and genetic data separately, and combined, and conclude that the evidence for the remains being those of Richard III is overwhelming.

Applying association mapping and genomic selection to the dissection of key traits in elite European wheat

We show the application of association mapping and genomic selection for key breeding targets using a large panel of elite winter wheat varieties and a large volume of agronomic data. The heightening urgency to increase wheat production in line with the needs of a growing population, and in the face of climatic uncertainty, mean new approaches, including association mapping (AM) and genomic selection (GS) need to be validated and applied in wheat breeding. Key adaptive responses are the cornerstone of regional breeding. There is evidence that new ideotypes for long-standing traits such as flowering time may be required. In order to detect targets for future marker-assisted improvement and validate the practical application of GS for wheat breeding we genotyped 376 elite wheat varieties with 3,046 DArT, single nucleotide polymorphism and gene markers and measured seven traits in replicated yield trials over 2 years in France, Germany and the UK. The scale of the phenotyping exceeds the breadth of previous AM and GS studies in these key economic wheat production regions of Northern Europe. Mixed-linear modelling (MLM) detected significant marker-trait associations across and within regions. Genomic prediction using elastic net gave low to high prediction accuracies depending on the trait, and could be experimentally increased by modifying the constituents of the training population (TP). We also tested the use of differentially penalised regression to integrate candidate gene and genome-wide markers to predict traits, demonstrating the validity and simplicity of this approach. Overall, our results suggest that whilst AM offers potential for application in both research and breeding, GS represents an exciting opportunity to select key traits, and that optimisation of the TP is crucial to its successful implementation.

Improving the efficiency of genomic selection

We investigate two approaches to increase the efficiency of phenotypic prediction from genome-wide markers, which is a key step for genomic selection (GS) in plant and animal breeding. The first approach is feature selection based on Markov blankets, which provide a theoretically-sound framework for identifying non-informative markers. Fitting GS models using only the informative markers results in simpler models, which may allow cost savings from reduced genotyping. We show that this is accompanied by no loss, and possibly a small gain, in predictive power for four GS models: partial least squares (PLS), ridge regression, LASSO and elastic net. The second approach is the choice of kinship coefficients for genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP). We compare kinships based on different combinations of centring and scaling of marker genotypes, and a newly proposed kinship measure that adjusts for linkage disequilibrium (LD). We illustrate the use of both approaches and examine their performances using three real-world data sets with continuous phenotypic traits from plant and animal genetics. We find that elastic net with feature selection and GBLUP using LD-adjusted kinships performed similarly well, and were the best-performing methods in our study.

A genome-wide association study and biological pathway analysis of epilepsy prognosis in a prospective cohort of newly treated epilepsy

We present the analysis of a prospective multicentre study to investigate genetic effects on the prognosis of newly treated epilepsy. Patients with a new clinical diagnosis of epilepsy requiring medication were recruited and followed up prospectively. The clinical outcome was defined as freedom from seizures for a minimum of 12 months in accordance with the consensus statement from the International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE). Genetic effects on remission of seizures after starting treatment were analysed with and without adjustment for significant clinical prognostic factors, and the results from each cohort were combined using a fixed-effects meta-analysis. After quality control (QC), we analysed 889 newly treated epilepsy patients using 472 450 genotyped and 6.9 × 10(6) imputed single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Suggestive evidence for association (defined as Pmeta < 5.0 × 10(-7)) with remission of seizures after starting treatment was observed at three loci: 6p12.2 (rs492146, Pmeta = 2.1 × 10(-7), OR[G] = 0.57), 9p23 (rs72700966, Pmeta = 3.1 × 10(-7), OR[C] = 2.70) and 15q13.2 (rs143536437, Pmeta = 3.2 × 10(-7), OR[C] = 1.92). Genes of biological interest at these loci include PTPRD and ARHGAP11B (encoding functions implicated in neuronal development) and GSTA4 (a phase II biotransformation enzyme). Pathway analysis using two independent methods implicated a number of pathways in the prognosis of epilepsy, including KEGG categories 'calcium signaling pathway' and 'phosphatidylinositol signaling pathway'. Through a series of power curves, we conclude that it is unlikely any single common variant explains >4.4% of the variation in the outcome of newly treated epilepsy.

In defence of model-based inference in phylogeography

Recent papers have promoted the view that model-based methods in general, and those based on Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) in particular, are flawed in a number of ways, and are therefore inappropriate for the analysis of phylogeographic data. These papers further argue that Nested Clade Phylogeographic Analysis (NCPA) offers the best approach in statistical phylogeography. In order to remove the confusion and misconceptions introduced by these papers, we justify and explain the reasoning behind model-based inference. We argue that ABC is a statistically valid approach, alongside other computational statistical techniques that have been successfully used to infer parameters and compare models in population genetics. We also examine the NCPA method and highlight numerous deficiencies, either when used with single or multiple loci. We further show that the ages of clades are carelessly used to infer ages of demographic events, that these ages are estimated under a simple model of panmixia and population stationarity but are then used under different and unspecified models to test hypotheses, a usage the invalidates these testing procedures. We conclude by encouraging researchers to study and use model-based inference in population genetics.

Common genetic variation near melatonin receptor MTNR1B contributes to raised plasma glucose and increased risk of type 2 diabetes among Indian Asians and European Caucasians

OBJECTIVE

Fasting plasma glucose and risk of type 2 diabetes are higher among Indian Asians than among European and North American Caucasians. Few studies have investigated genetic factors influencing glucose metabolism among Indian Asians.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We carried out genome-wide association studies for fasting glucose in 5,089 nondiabetic Indian Asians genotyped with the Illumina Hap610 BeadChip and 2,385 Indian Asians (698 with type 2 diabetes) genotyped with the Illumina 300 BeadChip. Results were compared with findings in 4,462 European Caucasians.

RESULTS

We identified three single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with glucose among Indian Asians at P < 5 x 10(-8), all near melatonin receptor MTNR1B. The most closely associated was rs2166706 (combined P = 2.1 x 10(-9)), which is in moderate linkage disequilibrium with rs1387153 (r(2) = 0.60) and rs10830963 (r(2) = 0.45), both previously associated with glucose in European Caucasians. Risk allele frequency and effect sizes for rs2166706 were similar among Indian Asians and European Caucasians: frequency 46.2 versus 45.0%, respectively (P = 0.44); effect 0.05 (95% CI 0.01-0.08) versus 0.05 (0.03-0.07 mmol/l), respectively, higher glucose per allele copy (P = 0.84). SNP rs2166706 was associated with type 2 diabetes in Indian Asians (odds ratio 1.21 [95% CI 1.06-1.38] per copy of risk allele; P = 0.006). SNPs at the GCK, GCKR, and G6PC2 loci were also associated with glucose among Indian Asians. Risk allele frequencies of rs1260326 (GCKR) and rs560887 (G6PC2) were higher among Indian Asians compared with European Caucasians.

CONCLUSIONS

Common genetic variation near MTNR1B influences blood glucose and risk of type 2 diabetes in Indian Asians. Genetic variation at the MTNR1B, GCK, GCKR, and G6PC2 loci may contribute to abnormal glucose metabolism and related metabolic disturbances among Indian Asians.

PopABC: a program to infer historical demographic parameters

PopABC is a computer package for inferring the pattern of demographic divergence of closely related populations and species. The software performs coalescent simulation in the framework of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). PopABC can also be used to perform Bayesian model choice to discriminate between different demographic scenarios. The program can be used either for research or for education and teaching purposes.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

Source code and binaries are freely available at http://www.reading.ac.uk/ approximately sar05sal/software.htm. The program was implemented in C and can run on UNIX, MacOSX and Windows operating systems.

Genome-wide association study for early-onset and morbid adult obesity identifies three new risk loci in European populations

We analyzed genome-wide association data from 1,380 Europeans with early-onset and morbid adult obesity and 1,416 age-matched normal-weight controls. Thirty-eight markers showing strong association were further evaluated in 14,186 European subjects. In addition to FTO and MC4R, we detected significant association of obesity with three new risk loci in NPC1 (endosomal/lysosomal Niemann-Pick C1 gene, P = 2.9 x 10(-7)), near MAF (encoding the transcription factor c-MAF, P = 3.8 x 10(-13)) and near PTER (phosphotriesterase-related gene, P = 2.1 x 10(-7)).

Apolipoprotein E, CI and B gene polymorphisms in a sample of patients with coronary heart disease in the Kuwaiti population

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to investigate the possible association of clinical variables and apolipoprotein (APOE, APOCI and APOB) polymorphisms with the development of myocardial infraction (MI) and coronary heart disease (CHD) in Kuwaitis.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

APOE, APOCI and APOB genotypes were determined by polymerase chain reaction followed by restriction fragment length polymorphism in 143 Kuwaiti CHD patients with (n = 88) and without (n = 55) MI and in 122 controls matched for gender and age. Statistical and genetic analyses of the genotype, allele and haplotype frequencies, as well as regression analyses of genetic and clinical variables were done.

RESULTS

There was a statistically significant association between CHD and medical history of diabetes mellitus (p < 0.001), hypertension (p < 0.01), high cholesterol (p < 0.05) and family history of CHD (p < 0.001). A highly significant association (p < 0.001) was found, with an adjusted odds ratio of 9.32, for family history and the development of MI. No significant differences were found for allele or genotype frequencies between CHD patients and controls.

CONCLUSION

The strong effect of family history suggests a major genetic component for the development of CHD in Kuwaitis, but this association does not appear to be related to the APO genes studied here. The results in this study encourages future research into these and other polymorphisms and their potential association with MI and CHD in the Kuwaiti population.

Common genetic variation near MC4R is associated with waist circumference and insulin resistance

We carried out a genome-wide association study (318,237 SNPs) for insulin resistance and related phenotypes in 2,684 Indian Asians, with further testing in 11,955 individuals of Indian Asian or European ancestry. We found associations of rs12970134 near MC4R with waist circumference (P = 1.7 x 10(-9)) and, independently, with insulin resistance. Homozygotes for the risk allele of rs12970134 have approximately 2 cm increased waist circumference. Common genetic variation near MC4R is associated with risk of adiposity and insulin resistance.

Gametic phase estimation over large genomic regions using an adaptive window approach

The authors present ELB, an easy to programme and computationally fast algorithm for inferring gametic phase in population samples of multilocus genotypes. Phase updates are made on the basis of a window of neighbouring loci, and the window size varies according to the local level of linkage disequilibrium. Thus, ELB is particularly well suited to problems involving many loci and/or relatively large genomic regions, including those with variable recombination rate. The authors have simulated population samples of single nucleotide polymorphism genotypes with varying levels of recombination and marker density, and find that ELB provides better local estimation of gametic phase than the PHASE or HTYPER programs, while its global accuracy is broadly similar. The relative improvement in local accuracy increases both with increasing recombination and with increasing marker density. Short tandem repeat (STR, or microsatellite) simulation studies demonstrate ELB's superiority over PHASE both globally and locally. Missing data are handled by ELB; simulations show that phase recovery is virtually unaffected by up to 2 per cent of missing data, but that phase estimation is noticeably impaired beyond this amount. The authors also applied ELB to datasets obtained from random pairings of 42 human X chromosomes typed at 97 diallelic markers in a 200 kb low-recombination region. Once again, they found ELB to have consistently better local accuracy than PHASE or HTYPER, while its global accuracy was close to the best.

Patterns of human diversity, within and among continents, inferred from biallelic DNA polymorphisms

Previous studies have reported that about 85% of human diversity at Short Tandem Repeat (STR) and Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (RFLP) autosomal loci is due to differences between individuals of the same population, whereas differences among continental groups account for only 10% of the overall genetic variance. These findings conflict with popular notions of distinct and relatively homogeneous human races, and may also call into question the apparent usefulness of ethnic classification in, for example, medical diagnostics. Here, we present new data on 21 Alu insertions in 32 populations. We analyze these data along with three other large, globally dispersed data sets consisting of apparently neutral biallelic nuclear markers, as well as with a beta-globin data set possibly subject to selection. We confirm the previous results for the autosomal data, and find a higher diversity among continents for Y-chromosome loci. We also extend the analyses to address two questions: (1) whether differences between continental groups, although small, are nevertheless large enough to confidently assign individuals to their continent on the basis of their genotypes; (2) whether the observed genotypes naturally cluster into continental or population groups when the sample source location is ignored. Using a range of statistical methods, we show that classification errors are at best around 30% for autosomal biallelic polymorphisms and 27% for the Y chromosome. Two data sets suggest the existence of three and four major groups of genotypes worldwide, respectively, and the two groupings are inconsistent. These results suggest that, at random biallelic loci, there is little evidence, if any, of a clear subdivision of humans into biologically defined groups.

A mathematical model of tumour-induced capillary growth

The corneal limbal vessels of an animal host respond to the presence of a source of Tumour Angiogenesis Factor (TAF) implanted in the cornea by the formation of new capillaries which grow towards the source. This neovasculature can be easily seen and studied and this paper describes a mathematical model of some of the important features of the growth. The model includes the diffusion of TAF, the formation of sprouts from pre-existing vessels and models the movement of these sprouts to form new capillaries as a chemotactic response to the presence of TAF. Numerical results are produced for various values of the parameters which characterize the model and it is suggested that the model might form the framework for further theoretical work on related phenomena such as wound healing or to develop strategies for the investigation of anti-angiogenesis.

Uricotelism and low evaporative water loss in a South American frog

A South American anuran (Phyllomedusa sauvagii) produced large amounts of semisolid urate when it was maintained on a diet of insects. Rates of evaporative water loss in Phyllomedusa sauvagii were only about 5 to 10 percent of those other anurans tested and were similar to those of lizards of comparable size.