Blood RNA biomarkers for tuberculosis screening in people living with HIV before antiretroviral therapy initiation: a diagnostic accuracy study

BACKGROUND

Undiagnosed tuberculosis remains a major threat for people living with HIV. Multiple blood transcriptomic biomarkers have shown promise for tuberculosis diagnosis. We sought to evaluate their diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility for systematic pre-antiretroviral therapy (ART) tuberculosis screening.

METHODS

We enrolled consecutive adults (age ≥18 years) referred to start ART at a community health centre in Cape Town, South Africa, irrespective of symptoms. Sputa were obtained (using induction if required) for two liquid cultures. Whole-blood RNA samples underwent transcriptional profiling using a custom Nanostring gene panel. We measured the diagnostic accuracy of seven candidate RNA signatures (one single gene biomarker [BATF2] and six multigene biomarkers) for the reference standard of Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture status, using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis, and sensitivity and specificity at prespecified thresholds (two standard scores above the mean of healthy controls; Z2). Clinical utility was assessed by calculating net benefit in decision curve analysis. We compared performance with C-reactive protein (CRP; threshold ≥5 mg/L), WHO four-symptom screen (W4SS), and the WHO target product profile for tuberculosis triage tests.

FINDINGS

A total of 707 people living with HIV (407 [58%] female and 300 [42%] male) were included, with median CD4 count 306 cells per mm3 (IQR 184-486). Of 676 participants with available sputum culture results, 89 (13%) had culture-confirmed tuberculosis. The seven RNA signatures were moderately to highly correlated (Spearman rank coefficients 0·42-0·93) and discriminated tuberculosis culture positivity with similar AUROCs (0·73-0·80), but none statistically better than CRP (AUROC 0·78, 95% CI 0·72-0·83). Diagnostic accuracy was similar across CD4 count strata, but lower among participants with negative W4SS (AUROCs 0·56-0·65) compared with positive (AUROCs 0·75-0·84). The RNA biomarker with the highest AUROC point estimate was a four-gene signature (Suliman4; AUROC 0·80, 95% CI 0·75-0·86), with sensitivity 83% (95% CI 74-90) and specificity 59% (55-63) at the Z2 threshold. In decision curve analysis, Suliman4 and CRP had similar clinical utility to guide confirmatory tuberculosis testing, but both had higher net benefit than W4SS. In exploratory analyses, an approach combining CRP (≥5 mg/L) and Suliman4 (≥Z2) had sensitivity of 80% (70-87), specificity of 70% (66-74), and higher net benefit than either biomarker alone.

INTERPRETATION

RNA biomarkers showed better clinical utility to guide confirmatory tuberculosis testing for people living with HIV before ART initiation than symptom-based screening, but their performance did not exceed that of CRP and fell short of WHO recommended targets. Interferon-independent approaches might be required to improve accuracy of host-response biomarkers to support tuberculosis screening before ART initiation.

FUNDING

South African Medical Research Council, European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership 2, National Institutes of Health National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, The Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health and Care Research, Royal College of Physicians London.

Point-of-care C-reactive protein and Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra for tuberculosis screening and diagnosis in unselected antiretroviral therapy initiators: a prospective, cross-sectional, diagnostic accuracy study

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis, a major cause of death in people living with HIV, remains challenging to diagnose. Diagnostic accuracy data are scarce for promising triage and confirmatory tests such as C-reactive protein (CRP), sputum and urine Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra (Xpert Ultra), and urine Determine TB LAM Ag (a lateral flow lipoarabinomannan [LF-LAM] test), without symptom selection. We evaluated novel triage and confirmatory tests in ambulatory people with HIV initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART).

METHODS

897 ART-initiators were recruited irrespective of symptoms and sputum induction offered. For triage (n=800), we evaluated point-of-care blood-based CRP testing, compared with the WHO-recommended four-symptom screen (W4SS). For sputum-based confirmatory testing (n=787), we evaluated Xpert Ultra versus Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert). For urine-based confirmatory testing (n=732), we evaluated Xpert Ultra and LF-LAM. We used a sputum culture reference standard.

FINDINGS

463 (52%) of 897 participants were female. The areas under the receiver operator characteristic curves for CRP was 0·78 (95% CI 0·73-0·83) and for number of W4SS symptoms was 0·70 (0·64-0·75). CRP (≥10 mg/L) had similar sensitivity to W4SS (77% [95% CI 68-85; 80/104] vs 77% [68-85; 80/104]; p>0·99] but higher specificity (64% [61-68; 445/696] vs 48% [45-52; 334/696]; p<0·0001]; reducing unnecessary confirmatory testing by 138 (95% CI 117-160) per 1000 people and number-needed-to-test from 6·91 (95% CI 6·25-7·81) to 4·87 (4·41-5·51). Sputum samples with Xpert Ultra, which required induction in 49 (31%) of 158 of people (95% CI 24-39), had higher sensitivity than Xpert (71% [95% CI 61-80; 74/104] vs 56% [46-66; 58/104]; p<0·0001). Of the people with one or more confirmatory sputum or urine test results that were positive, the proportion detected by Xpert Ultra increased from 45% (26-64) to 66% (46-82) with induction. Programmatically done haemoglobin, triage test combinations, and urine tests showed comparatively worse results.

INTERPRETATION

CRP is a more specific triage test than W4SS in those initiating ART. Sputum induction improves diagnostic yield. Sputum samples with Xpert Ultra is a more accurate confirmatory test than with Xpert.

FUNDING

South African Medical Research Council, EDCTP2, US National Institutes of Health-National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Persistent symptoms after COVID-19 are not associated with differential SARS-CoV-2 antibody or T cell immunity

Among the unknowns in decoding the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 persistent symptoms in Long Covid is whether there is a contributory role of abnormal immunity during acute infection. It has been proposed that Long Covid is a consequence of either an excessive or inadequate initial immune response. Here, we analyze SARS-CoV-2 humoral and cellular immunity in 86 healthcare workers with laboratory confirmed mild or asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first wave. Symptom questionnaires allow stratification into those with persistent symptoms and those without for comparison. During the period up to 18-weeks post-infection, we observe no difference in antibody responses to spike RBD or nucleoprotein, virus neutralization, or T cell responses. Also, there is no difference in the profile of antibody waning. Analysis at 1-year, after two vaccine doses, comparing those with persistent symptoms to those without, again shows similar SARS-CoV-2 immunity. Thus, quantitative differences in these measured parameters of SARS-CoV-2 adaptive immunity following mild or asymptomatic acute infection are unlikely to have contributed to Long Covid causality. ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04318314).

Clinical utility of WHO-recommended screening tools and development and validation of novel clinical prediction models for pulmonary tuberculosis screening among outpatients living with HIV: an individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that outpatient people living with HIV (PLHIV) undergo tuberculosis screening with the WHO four-symptom screen (W4SS) or C-reactive protein (CRP) (5 mg·L-1 cut-off) followed by confirmatory testing if screen positive. We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis to determine the performance of WHO-recommended screening tools and two newly developed clinical prediction models (CPMs).

METHODS

Following a systematic review, we identified studies that recruited adult outpatient PLHIV irrespective of tuberculosis signs and symptoms or with a positive W4SS, evaluated CRP and collected sputum for culture. We used logistic regression to develop an extended CPM (which included CRP and other predictors) and a CRP-only CPM. We used internal-external cross-validation to evaluate performance.

RESULTS

We pooled data from eight cohorts (n=4315 participants). The extended CPM had excellent discrimination (C-statistic 0.81); the CRP-only CPM had similar discrimination. The C-statistics for WHO-recommended tools were lower. Both CPMs had equivalent or higher net benefit compared with the WHO-recommended tools. Compared with both CPMs, CRP (5 mg·L-1 cut-off) had equivalent net benefit across a clinically useful range of threshold probabilities, while the W4SS had a lower net benefit. The W4SS would capture 91% of tuberculosis cases and require confirmatory testing for 78% of participants. CRP (5 mg·L-1 cut-off), the extended CPM (4.2% threshold) and the CRP-only CPM (3.6% threshold) would capture similar percentages of cases but reduce confirmatory tests required by 24, 27 and 36%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

CRP sets the standard for tuberculosis screening among outpatient PLHIV. The choice between using CRP at 5 mg·L-1 cut-off or in a CPM depends on available resources.

Large clones of pre-existing T cells drive early immunity against SARS-COV-2 and LCMV infection

T cell responses precede antibody and may provide early control of infection. We analyzed the clonal basis of this rapid response following SARS-COV-2 infection. We applied T cell receptor (TCR) sequencing to define the trajectories of individual T cell clones immediately. In SARS-COV-2 PCR+ individuals, a wave of TCRs strongly but transiently expand, frequently peaking the same week as the first positive PCR test. These expanding TCR CDR3s were enriched for sequences functionally annotated as SARS-COV-2 specific. Epitopes recognized by the expanding TCRs were highly conserved between SARS-COV-2 strains but not with circulating human coronaviruses. Many expanding CDR3s were present at high frequency in pre-pandemic repertoires. Early response TCRs specific for lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus epitopes were also found at high frequency in the preinfection naive repertoire. High-frequency naive precursors may allow the T cell response to respond rapidly during the crucial early phases of acute viral infection.

Point-of-care C-reactive protein and Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra for tuberculosis screening and diagnosis in unselected antiretroviral therapy initiators: a prospective diagnostic accuracy study

Background

Tuberculosis (TB), a major cause of death in people living with HIV (PLHIV), remains challenging to diagnose. Diagnostic accuracy data are lacking for promising triage tests, such as C-reactive protein (CRP), and confirmatory tests, such as sputum and urine Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra (Ultra), and urine LAM, without prior symptom selection.

Methods

897 PLHIV initiating antiretroviral therapy were consecutively recruited in settings with high TB incidence, irrespective of symptoms. Participants were offered sputum induction, with a liquid culture reference standard. First, we evaluated point-of-care CRP testing on blood, compared to the World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended four-symptom screen (W4SS) for triage (n=800). Second, we evaluated Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra (Ultra) versus Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) for sputum-based confirmatory testing (n=787), with or without sputum induction. Third, we evaluated Ultra and Determine LF-LAM for urine-based confirmatory testing (n=732).

Findings

CRP and number of W4SS symptoms had areas under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.73, 0.83) and 0.70 (0.64, 0.75), respectively. For triage, CRP (≥10 mg/l) has similar sensitivity to W4SS [77% (68, 85) vs. 77% (68, 85); p>0.999] but higher specificity [64% (61, 68) vs. 48% (45, 52); p<0.001]; reducing unnecessary confirmatory testing by 138 per 1000 people and the number-needed-to-test from 6.91 (6.25, 7.81) to 4.87 (4.41, 5.51). Using sputum, which required induction in 31% (24, 39) of people, Ultra had higher sensitivity than Xpert [71% (61, 80) vs. 56% (46, 66); p<0.001] but lower specificity [98% (96, 100) vs. 99% (98, 100); p<0.001]. The proportion of people with ≥1 positive confirmatory result detected by Ultra increased from 45% (26, 64) to 66% (46, 82) when induction was done. Programmatically-done haemoglobin, triage test combinations, and urine tests showed comparatively worse performance.

Interpretation

Among ART-initiators in a high burden setting, CRP is a more specific triage test than W4SS. Sputum induction improves yield. Sputum Ultra is a more accurate confirmatory test than Xpert.

Funding

SAMRC (MRC-RFA-IFSP-01-2013), EDCTP2 (SF1401, OPTIMAL DIAGNOSIS), NIH/NIAD (U01AI152087).

Research in context

Evidence before this study: Novel triage and confirmatory tests are urgently needed for TB, especially in key risk groups like PLHIV. Many TB cases do not meet World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended four-symptom screen (W4SS) criteria despite accounting for significant transmission and morbidity. W4SS also lacks specificity, which makes onward referral of triage-positive people for expensive confirmatory testing inefficient and hampers diagnostic scale-up. Alternative triage approaches like CRP have promise, but have comparatively little data in ART-initiators, especially when done without syndromic preselection and using point-of-care (POC) tools. After triage, confirmatory testing can be challenging due to sputum scarcity and paucibacillary early-stage disease. Next generation WHO-endorsed rapid molecular tests (including Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra; Ultra) are a standard-of-care for confirmatory testing. However, there are no supporting data in ART-initiators, among whom Ultra may offer large sensitivity gains over predecessors like Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert). The added value of sputum induction to augment diagnostic sampling for confirmatory testing is also unclear. Lastly, the performance of urine tests (Ultra, Determine LF-LAM) in this population requires more data.Added value of this study: We evaluated repurposed and new tests for triage and confirmatory testing using a rigorous microbiological reference standard in a highly vulnerable high-priority patient population (ART-initiators) regardless of symptoms and ability to naturally expectorate sputum. We showed POC CRP triage is feasible, performs better than W4SS, and that combinations of different triage approaches offer no advantages over CRP alone. Sputum Ultra has superior sensitivity to Xpert; often detecting W4SS-negative TB. Furthermore, without induction, confirmatory sputum-based testing would not be possible in a third of people. Urine tests had poor performance. This study contributed unpublished data to systematic reviews and meta-analyses used by the WHO to inform global policy supporting use of CRP triage and Ultra in PLHIV.Implication of all the available evidence: POC CRP triage testing is feasible and superior to W4SS and, together with sputum induction in people who triage CRP-positive should, after appropriate cost and implementation research, be considered for roll-out in ART-initiators in high burden settings. Such people should be offered Ultra, which outperforms Xpert.

Blood RNA biomarkers for tuberculosis screening in people living with HIV prior to anti-retroviral therapy initiation: A diagnostic accuracy study

Background

Undiagnosed tuberculosis (TB) remains a major threat for people living with HIV (PLHIV). Multiple blood transcriptomic biomarkers have shown promise for TB diagnosis. We sought to evaluate their diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility for systematic pre-antiretroviral therapy (ART) TB screening.

Methods

We enrolled consecutive adults referred to start ART at a community health centre in Cape Town, South Africa, irrespective of symptoms. Sputa were obtained (using induction if required) for two liquid cultures. Whole-blood RNA samples underwent transcriptional profiling using a custom Nanostring gene-panel. We measured the diagnostic accuracy of seven candidate RNA biomarkers for the reference standard of Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture status, using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis, and sensitivity/specificity at pre-specified thresholds (two standard scores above the mean of healthy controls; Z2). Clinical utility was assessed using decision curve analysis. We compared performance to CRP (threshold ≥5mg/L), World Health Organisation (WHO) four-symptom screen (W4SS) and the WHO target product profile for TB triage tests.

Results

A total of 707 PLHIV were included, with median CD4 count 306 cells/mm3. Of 676 with available sputum culture results, 89 (13%) had culture-confirmed TB. The seven RNA biomarkers were moderately to highly correlated (Spearman rank coefficients 0.42-0.93) and discriminated TB culture-positivity with similar AUROCs (0.73-0.80), but none statistically better than CRP (AUROC 0.78; 95% CI 0.72-0.83). Diagnostic accuracy was similar across CD4 count strata, but lower among W4SS-negative (AUROCs 0.56-0.65) compared to W4SS-positive participants (AUROCs 0.75-0.84). The RNA biomarker with highest AUROC point estimate was a 4-gene signature (Suliman4; AUROC 0.80; 95% CI 0.75-0.86), with sensitivity 0.83 (0.74-0.90) and specificity 0.59 (0.55-0.63) at Z2 threshold. In decision curve analysis, Suliman4 and CRP had similar clinical utility to guide confirmatory TB testing, but both had higher net benefit than W4SS. In exploratory analyses, an approach combining CRP (≥5mg/L) and Suliman4 (≥Z2) had sensitivity of 0.80 (0.70-0.87), specificity of 0.70 (0.66-0.74) and higher net benefit than either biomarker alone.

Interpretation

RNA biomarkers showed better clinical utility to guide confirmatory TB testing for PLHIV prior to ART initiation than symptom-based screening, but their performance did not exceed that of CRP, and fell short of WHO recommended targets. Interferon-independent approaches may be required to improve accuracy of host-response biomarkers to support TB screening pre-ART initiation.

Funding

South African MRC, EDCTP2, NIH/NIAID, Wellcome Trust, NIHR, Royal College of Physicians London.

Genomic investigations of unexplained acute hepatitis in children

Since its first identification in Scotland, over 1,000 cases of unexplained paediatric hepatitis in children have been reported worldwide, including 278 cases in the UK1. Here we report an investigation of 38 cases, 66 age-matched immunocompetent controls and 21 immunocompromised comparator participants, using a combination of genomic, transcriptomic, proteomic and immunohistochemical methods. We detected high levels of adeno-associated virus 2 (AAV2) DNA in the liver, blood, plasma or stool from 27 of 28 cases. We found low levels of adenovirus (HAdV) and human herpesvirus 6B (HHV-6B) in 23 of 31 and 16 of 23, respectively, of the cases tested. By contrast, AAV2 was infrequently detected and at low titre in the blood or the liver from control children with HAdV, even when profoundly immunosuppressed. AAV2, HAdV and HHV-6 phylogeny excluded the emergence of novel strains in cases. Histological analyses of explanted livers showed enrichment for T cells and B lineage cells. Proteomic comparison of liver tissue from cases and healthy controls identified increased expression of HLA class 2, immunoglobulin variable regions and complement proteins. HAdV and AAV2 proteins were not detected in the livers. Instead, we identified AAV2 DNA complexes reflecting both HAdV-mediated and HHV-6B-mediated replication. We hypothesize that high levels of abnormal AAV2 replication products aided by HAdV and, in severe cases, HHV-6B may have triggered immune-mediated hepatic disease in genetically and immunologically predisposed children.

Tissue CD14+CD8+ T cells reprogrammed by myeloid cells and modulated by LPS

The liver is bathed in bacterial products, including lipopolysaccharide transported from the intestinal portal vasculature, but maintains a state of tolerance that is exploited by persistent pathogens and tumours1-4. The cellular basis mediating this tolerance, yet allowing a switch to immunity or immunopathology, needs to be better understood for successful immunotherapy of liver diseases. Here we show that a variable proportion of CD8+ T cells compartmentalized in the human liver co-stain for CD14 and other prototypic myeloid membrane proteins and are enriched in close proximity to CD14high myeloid cells in hepatic zone 2. CD14+CD8+ T cells preferentially accumulate within the donor pool in liver allografts, among hepatic virus-specific and tumour-infiltrating responses, and in cirrhotic ascites. CD14+CD8+ T cells exhibit increased turnover, activation and constitutive immunomodulatory features with high homeostatic IL-10 and IL-2 production ex vivo, and enhanced antiviral/anti-tumour effector function after TCR engagement. This CD14+CD8+ T cell profile can be recapitulated by the acquisition of membrane proteins-including the lipopolysaccharide receptor complex-from mononuclear phagocytes, resulting in augmented tumour killing by TCR-redirected T cells in vitro. CD14+CD8+ T cells express integrins and chemokine receptors that favour interactions with the local stroma, which can promote their induction through CXCL12. Lipopolysaccharide can also increase the frequency of CD14+CD8+ T cells in vitro and in vivo, and skew their function towards the production of chemotactic and regenerative cytokines. Thus, bacterial products in the gut-liver axis and tissue stromal factors can tune liver immunity by driving myeloid instruction of CD8+ T cells with immunomodulatory ability.

Streptococcus pneumoniae meningitis and the CNS barriers

Streptococcus pneumoniae (SPN) is a globally significant cause of meningitis, the pathophysiology of which involves damage to the brain by both bacterial virulence factors and the host inflammatory response. In most cases of SPN meningitis bacteria translocate from the blood into the central nervous system (CNS). The principal site of SPN translocation into the CNS is not known, with possible portals of entry proposed to be the cerebral or meningeal blood vessels or the choroid plexus. All require SPN to bind to and translocate across the vascular endothelial barrier, and subsequently the basement membrane and perivascular structures, including an additional epithelial barrier in the case of the blood-CSF barrier. The presence of SPN in the CNS is highly inflammatory resulting in marked neutrophilic infiltration. The secretion of toxic inflammatory mediators by activated neutrophils within the CNS damages pathogen and host alike, including the non-replicative neurons which drives morbidity and mortality. As with the translocation of SPN, the recruitment of neutrophils into the CNS in SPN meningitis necessitates the translocation of neutrophils from the circulation across the vascular barrier, a process that is tightly regulated under basal conditions - a feature of the 'immune specialization' of the CNS. The brain barriers are therefore central to SPN meningitis, both through a failure to exclude bacteria and maintain CNS sterility, and subsequently through the active recruitment and/or failure to exclude circulating leukocytes. The interactions of SPN with these barriers, barrier inflammatory responses, along with their therapeutic implications, are explored in this review.

Clinical utility of C-reactive protein-based triage for presumptive pulmonary tuberculosis in South African adults

BACKGROUND

Identification of an accurate, low-cost triage test for pulmonary TB among people presenting to healthcare facilities is an urgent global research priority. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility of C-reactive protein (CRP) for TB triage among symptomatic adult outpatients, irrespective of HIV status.

METHODS

We prospectively enrolled adults reporting at least one (for people with HIV) or two (for people without HIV) symptoms of cough, fever, night sweats, or weight loss at two TB clinics in Cape Town, South Africa. Participants provided sputum for culture and Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of CRP (measured using a laboratory-based assay) against a TB-culture reference standard as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and sensitivity and specificity at pre-specified thresholds. We assessed clinical utility using decision curve analysis and benchmarked against WHO recommendations.

RESULTS

Of 932 included individuals, 255 (27%) had culture-confirmed pulmonary TB and 389 (42%) were living with HIV. CRP demonstrated an AUROC of 0·80 (95% confidence interval 0·77-0·83), with sensitivity 93% (89-95%) and specificity 54% (50-58%) using a primary cut-off of ≥10 mg/L. Performance was similar among people with HIV to those without. In decision curve analysis, CRP-based triage offered greater clinical utility than confirmatory testing for all up to a number willing to test threshold of 20 confirmatory tests per true positive pulmonary TB case diagnosed (threshold probability 5%). If it is possible to perform more confirmatory tests than this, a 'confirmatory test for all' strategy performed better.

CONCLUSIONS

CRP achieved the WHO-defined sensitivity, but not specificity, targets for a triage test for pulmonary TB and showed evidence of clinical utility among symptomatic outpatients, irrespective of HIV status.

FUNDING

South African Medical Research Council, EDCTP2, Royal Society Newton Advanced Fellowship, Wellcome Trust, National Institute of Health Research, Royal College of Physicians.

Toward a more generalizable blood RNA signature for bacterial and viral infections

Host-response profiles can discriminate different infections. A new 8-gene blood RNA signature to discriminate bacterial and viral infections extends our focus hitherto on the case mix from the US and Europe to include that of low- and middle-income countries.¹ Challenges remain.

Pneumolysin suppresses the initial macrophage pro-inflammatory response to Streptococcus pneumoniae

Published data for the Streptococcus pneumoniae virulence factor Pneumolysin (Ply) show contradictory effects on the host inflammatory response to infection. Ply has been shown to activate the inflammasome, but also can bind to MRC-1 resulting in suppression of dendritic cell inflammatory responses. We have used an in vitro infection model of human monocyte-derived macrophages (MDM), and a mouse model of pneumonia to clarify whether pro- or anti-inflammatory effects dominate the effects of Ply on the initial macrophage inflammatory response to S. pneumoniae, and the consequences during early lung infection. We found that infection with S. pneumoniae expressing Ply suppressed tumour necrosis factor (TNF) and interleukin-6 production by MDMs compared to cells infected with ply-deficient S. pneumoniae. This effect was independent of bacterial effects on cell death. Transcriptional analysis demonstrated S. pneumoniae expressing Ply caused a qualitatively similar but quantitatively lower MDM transcriptional response to S. pneumoniae compared to ply-deficient S. pneumoniae, with reduced expression of TNF and type I IFN inducible genes. Reduction of the MDM inflammatory response was prevented by inhibition of SOCS1. In the early lung infection mouse model, the TNF response to ply-deficient S. pneumoniae was enhanced and bacterial clearance increased compared to infection with wild-type S. pneumoniae. Overall, these data show Ply inhibits the initial macrophage inflammatory response to S. pneumoniae, probably mediated through SOCS1, and this was associated with improved immune evasion during early lung infection.

Plasma proteomic signature predicts who will get persistent symptoms following SARS-CoV-2 infection

BACKGROUND

The majority of those infected by ancestral Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during the UK first wave (starting March 2020) did not require hospitalisation. Most had a short-lived mild or asymptomatic infection, while others had symptoms that persisted for weeks or months. We hypothesized that the plasma proteome at the time of first infection would reflect differences in the inflammatory response that linked to symptom severity and duration.

METHODS

We performed a nested longitudinal case-control study and targeted analysis of the plasma proteome of 156 healthcare workers (HCW) with and without lab confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Targeted proteomic multiple-reaction monitoring analysis of 91 pre-selected proteins was undertaken in uninfected healthcare workers at baseline, and in infected healthcare workers serially, from 1 week prior to 6 weeks after their first confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Symptom severity and antibody responses were also tracked. Questionnaires at 6 and 12 months collected data on persistent symptoms.

FINDINGS

Within this cohort (median age 39 years, interquartile range 30-47 years), 54 healthcare workers (44% male) had PCR or antibody confirmed infection, with the remaining 102 (38% male) serving as uninfected controls. Following the first confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, perturbation of the plasma proteome persisted for up to 6 weeks, tracking symptom severity and antibody responses. Differentially abundant proteins were mostly coordinated around lipid, atherosclerosis and cholesterol metabolism pathways, complement and coagulation cascades, autophagy, and lysosomal function. The proteomic profile at the time of seroconversion associated with persistent symptoms out to 12 months. Data are available via ProteomeXchange with identifier PXD036590.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings show that non-severe SARS-CoV-2 infection perturbs the plasma proteome for at least 6 weeks. The plasma proteomic signature at the time of seroconversion has the potential to identify which individuals are more likely to suffer from persistent symptoms related to SARS-CoV-2 infection.

FUNDING INFORMATION

The COVIDsortium is supported by funding donated by individuals, charitable Trusts, and corporations including Goldman Sachs, Citadel and Citadel Securities, The Guy Foundation, GW Pharmaceuticals, Kusuma Trust, and Jagclif Charitable Trust, and enabled by Barts Charity with support from University College London Hospitals (UCLH) Charity. This work was additionally supported by the Translational Mass Spectrometry Research Group and the Biomedical Research Center (BRC) at Great Ormond Street Hospital.

Quantitative, multiplexed, targeted proteomics for ascertaining variant specific SARS-CoV-2 antibody response

Determining the protection an individual has to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VoCs) is crucial for future immune surveillance, vaccine development, and understanding of the changing immune response. We devised an informative assay to current ELISA-based serology using multiplexed, baited, targeted proteomics for direct detection of multiple proteins in the SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike antibody immunocomplex. Serum from individuals collected after infection or first- and second-dose vaccination demonstrates this approach and shows concordance with existing serology and neutralization. Our assays show altered responses of both immunoglobulins and complement to the Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351), and Delta (B.1.617.1) VoCs and a reduced response to Omicron (B1.1.1529). We were able to identify individuals who had prior infection, and observed that C1q is closely associated with IgG1 (r > 0.82) and may better reflect neutralization to VoCs. Analyzing additional immunoproteins beyond immunoglobulin (Ig) G, provides important information about our understanding of the response to infection and vaccination.

Streptococcus pneumoniae interactions with the complement system

Host innate and adaptive immunity to infection with Streptococcus pneumoniae is critically dependent on the complement system, demonstrated by the high incidence of invasive S. pneumoniae infection in people with inherited deficiency of complement components. The complement system is activated by S. pneumoniae through multiple mechanisms. The classical complement pathway is activated by recognition of S. pneumoniae by C-reactive protein, serum amyloid P, C1q, SIGN-R1, or natural or acquired antibody. Some S. pneumoniae strains are also recognised by ficolins to activate the mannose binding lectin (MBL) activation pathway. Complement activation is then amplified by the alternative complement pathway, which can also be activated by S. pneumoniae directly. Complement activation results in covalent linkage of the opsonic complement factors C3b and iC3b to the S. pneumoniae surface which promote phagocytic clearance, along with complement-mediated immune adherence to erythrocytes, thereby protecting against septicaemia. The role of complement for mucosal immunity to S. pneumoniae is less clear. Given the major role of complement in controlling infection with S. pneumoniae, it is perhaps unsurprising that S. pneumoniae has evolved multiple mechanisms of complement evasion, including the capsule, multiple surface proteins, and the toxin pneumolysin. There is considerable variation between S. pneumoniae capsular serotypes and genotypes with regards to sensitivity to complement which correlates with ability to cause invasive infections. However, at present we only have a limited understanding of the main mechanisms causing variations in complement sensitivity between S. pneumoniae strains and to non-pathogenic streptococci.

Pericyte derived chemokines amplify neutrophil recruitment across the cerebrovascular endothelial barrier

Excessive neutrophil extravasation can drive immunopathology, exemplified in pyogenic meningitis caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae infection. Insufficient knowledge of the mechanisms that amplify neutrophil extravasation has limited innovation in therapeutic targeting of neutrophil mediated pathology. Attention has focussed on neutrophil interactions with endothelia, but data from mouse models also point to a role for the underlying pericyte layer, as well as perivascular macrophages, the only other cell type found within the perivascular space in the cerebral microvasculature. We tested the hypothesis that human brain vascular pericytes (HBVP) contribute to neutrophil extravasation in a transwell model of the cerebral post-capillary venule. We show that pericytes augment endothelial barrier formation. In response to inflammatory cues, they significantly enhance neutrophil transmigration across the endothelial barrier, without increasing the permeability to small molecules. In our model, neither pericytes nor endothelia responded directly to bacterial stimulation. Instead, we show that paracrine signalling by multiple cytokines from monocyte derived macrophages drives transcriptional upregulation of multiple neutrophil chemokines by pericytes. Pericyte mediated amplification of neutrophil transmigration was independent of transcriptional responses by endothelia, but could be mediated by direct chemokine translocation across the endothelial barrier. Our data support a model in which microbial sensing by perivascular macrophages generates an inflammatory cascade where pericytes serve to amplify production of neutrophil chemokines that are translocated across the endothelial barrier to act directly on circulating neutrophils. In view of the striking redundancy in inflammatory cytokines that stimulate pericytes and in the neutrophil chemokines they produce, we propose that the mechanism of chemokine translocation may offer the most effective therapeutic target to reduce neutrophil mediated pathology in pyogenic meningitis.

Immune boosting by B.1.1.529 Omicron) depends on previous SARS-CoV-2 exposure

The Omicron, or Pango lineage B.1.1.529, variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) carries multiple spike mutations with high transmissibility and partial neutralizing antibody (nAb) escape. Vaccinated individuals show protection against severe disease, often attributed to primed cellular immunity. We investigated T and B cell immunity against B.1.1.529 in triple BioNTech BNT162b2 messenger RNA-vaccinated health care workers (HCWs) with different SARS-CoV-2 infection histories. B and T cell immunity against previous variants of concern was enhanced in triple-vaccinated individuals, but the magnitude of T and B cell responses against B.1.1.529 spike protein was reduced. Immune imprinting by infection with the earlier B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant resulted in less durable binding antibody against B.1.1.529. Previously infection-naïve HCWs who became infected during the B.1.1.529 wave showed enhanced immunity against earlier variants but reduced nAb potency and T cell responses against B.1.1.529 itself. Previous Wuhan Hu-1 infection abrogated T cell recognition and any enhanced cross-reactive neutralizing immunity on infection with B.1.1.529.

Clinical prediction models for mortality in patients with covid-19: external validation and individual participant data meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To externally validate various prognostic models and scoring rules for predicting short term mortality in patients admitted to hospital for covid-19.

DESIGN

Two stage individual participant data meta-analysis.

SETTING

Secondary and tertiary care.

PARTICIPANTS

46 914 patients across 18 countries, admitted to a hospital with polymerase chain reaction confirmed covid-19 from November 2019 to April 2021.

DATA SOURCES

Multiple (clustered) cohorts in Brazil, Belgium, China, Czech Republic, Egypt, France, Iran, Israel, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Portugal, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, and United States previously identified by a living systematic review of covid-19 prediction models published in The BMJ, and through PROSPERO, reference checking, and expert knowledge.

MODEL SELECTION AND ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Prognostic models identified by the living systematic review and through contacting experts. A priori models were excluded that had a high risk of bias in the participant domain of PROBAST (prediction model study risk of bias assessment tool) or for which the applicability was deemed poor.

METHODS

Eight prognostic models with diverse predictors were identified and validated. A two stage individual participant data meta-analysis was performed of the estimated model concordance (C) statistic, calibration slope, calibration-in-the-large, and observed to expected ratio (O:E) across the included clusters.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

30 day mortality or in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

Datasets included 27 clusters from 18 different countries and contained data on 46 914patients. The pooled estimates ranged from 0.67 to 0.80 (C statistic), 0.22 to 1.22 (calibration slope), and 0.18 to 2.59 (O:E ratio) and were prone to substantial between study heterogeneity. The 4C Mortality Score by Knight et al (pooled C statistic 0.80, 95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.84, 95% prediction interval 0.72 to 0.86) and clinical model by Wang et al (0.77, 0.73 to 0.80, 0.63 to 0.87) had the highest discriminative ability. On average, 29% fewer deaths were observed than predicted by the 4C Mortality Score (pooled O:E 0.71, 95% confidence interval 0.45 to 1.11, 95% prediction interval 0.21 to 2.39), 35% fewer than predicted by the Wang clinical model (0.65, 0.52 to 0.82, 0.23 to 1.89), and 4% fewer than predicted by Xie et al's model (0.96, 0.59 to 1.55, 0.21 to 4.28).

CONCLUSION

The prognostic value of the included models varied greatly between the data sources. Although the Knight 4C Mortality Score and Wang clinical model appeared most promising, recalibration (intercept and slope updates) is needed before implementation in routine care.

Prospective validation of the 4C prognostic models for adults hospitalised with COVID-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol

PURPOSE

To prospectively validate two risk scores to predict mortality (4C Mortality) and in-hospital deterioration (4C Deterioration) among adults hospitalised with COVID-19.

METHODS

Prospective observational cohort study of adults (age ≥18 years) with confirmed or highly suspected COVID-19 recruited into the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study in 306 hospitals across England, Scotland and Wales. Patients were recruited between 27 August 2020 and 17 February 2021, with at least 4 weeks follow-up before final data extraction. The main outcome measures were discrimination and calibration of models for in-hospital deterioration (defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) and mortality, incorporating predefined subgroups.

RESULTS

76 588 participants were included, of whom 27 352 (37.4%) deteriorated and 12 581 (17.4%) died. Both the 4C Mortality (0.78 (0.77 to 0.78)) and 4C Deterioration scores (pooled C-statistic 0.76 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.77)) demonstrated consistent discrimination across all nine National Health Service regions, with similar performance metrics to the original validation cohorts. Calibration remained stable (4C Mortality: pooled slope 1.09, pooled calibration-in-the-large 0.12; 4C Deterioration: 1.00, -0.04), with no need for temporal recalibration during the second UK pandemic wave of hospital admissions.

CONCLUSION

Both 4C risk stratification models demonstrate consistent performance to predict clinical deterioration and mortality in a large prospective second wave validation cohort of UK patients. Despite recent advances in the treatment and management of adults hospitalised with COVID-19, both scores can continue to inform clinical decision making.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN66726260.

HLA-DR polymorphism in SARS-CoV-2 infection and susceptibility to symptomatic COVID-19

SARS-CoV-2 infection results in different outcomes ranging from asymptomatic infection to mild or severe disease and death. Reasons for this diversity of outcome include differences in challenge dose, age, gender, comorbidity and host genomic variation. Human leukocyte antigen (HLA) polymorphisms may influence immune response and disease outcome. We investigated the association of HLAII alleles with case definition symptomatic COVID-19, virus-specific antibody and T-cell immunity. A total of 1364 UK healthcare workers (HCWs) were recruited during the first UK SARS-CoV-2 wave and analysed longitudinally, encompassing regular PCR screening for infection, symptom reporting, imputation of HLAII genotype and analysis for antibody and T-cell responses to nucleoprotein (N) and spike (S). Of 272 (20%) HCW who seroconverted, the presence of HLA-DRB1*13:02 was associated with a 6·7-fold increased risk of case definition symptomatic COVID-19. In terms of immune responsiveness, HLA-DRB1*15:02 was associated with lower nucleocapsid T-cell responses. There was no association between DRB1 alleles and anti-spike antibody titres after two COVID vaccine doses. However, HLA DRB1*15:01 was associated with increased spike T-cell responses following both first and second dose vaccination. Trial registration: NCT04318314 and ISRCTN15677965.

HIV-1 Vpr drives a tissue residency-like phenotype during selective infection of resting memory T cells

HIV-1 replicates in CD4+ T cells, leading to AIDS. Determining how HIV-1 shapes its niche to create a permissive environment is central to informing efforts to limit pathogenesis, disturb reservoirs, and achieve a cure. A key roadblock in understanding HIV-T cell interactions is the requirement to activate T cells in vitro to make them permissive to infection. This dramatically alters T cell biology and virus-host interactions. Here we show that HIV-1 cell-to-cell spread permits efficient, productive infection of resting memory T cells without prior activation. Strikingly, we find that HIV-1 infection primes resting T cells to gain characteristics of tissue-resident memory T cells (TRM), including upregulating key surface markers and the transcription factor Blimp-1 and inducing a transcriptional program overlapping the core TRM transcriptional signature. This reprogramming is driven by Vpr and requires Vpr packaging into virions and manipulation of STAT5. Thus, HIV-1 reprograms resting T cells, with implications for viral replication and persistence.

Rapid synchronous type 1 IFN and virus-specific T cell responses characterize first wave non-severe SARS-CoV-2 infections

Effective control of SARS-CoV-2 infection on primary exposure may reveal correlates of protective immunity to future variants, but we lack insights into immune responses before or at the time virus is first detected. We use blood transcriptomics, multiparameter flow cytometry, and T cell receptor (TCR) sequencing spanning the time of incident non-severe infection in unvaccinated virus-naive individuals to identify rapid type 1 interferon (IFN) responses common to other acute respiratory viruses and cell proliferation responses that discriminate SARS-CoV-2 from other viruses. These peak by the time the virus is first detected and sometimes precede virus detection. Cell proliferation is most evident in CD8 T cells and associated with specific expansion of SARS-CoV-2-reactive TCRs, in contrast to virus-specific antibodies, which lag by 1-2 weeks. Our data support a protective role for early type 1 IFN and CD8 T cell responses, with implications for development of universal T cell vaccines.

Antiviral metabolite 3'-deoxy-3',4'-didehydro-cytidine is detectable in serum and identifies acute viral infections including COVID-19

BACKGROUND

There is a critical need for rapid viral infection diagnostics to enable prompt case identification in pandemic settings and support targeted antimicrobial prescribing.

METHODS

Using untargeted high-resolution liquid chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry, we compared the admission serum metabolome of emergency department patients with viral infections (including COVID-19), bacterial infections, inflammatory conditions, and healthy controls. Sera from an independent cohort of emergency department patients admitted with viral or bacterial infections underwent profiling to validate findings. Associations between whole-blood gene expression and the identified metabolite of interest were examined.

FINDINGS

3'-Deoxy-3',4'-didehydro-cytidine (ddhC), a free base of the only known human antiviral small molecule ddhC-triphosphate (ddhCTP), was detected for the first time in serum. When comparing 60 viral with 101 non-viral cases in the discovery cohort, ddhC was the most significantly differentially abundant metabolite, generating an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.954 (95% CI: 0.923-0.986). In the validation cohort, ddhC was again the most significantly differentially abundant metabolite when comparing 40 viral with 40 bacterial cases, generating an AUC of 0.81 (95% CI 0.708-0.915). Transcripts of viperin and CMPK2, enzymes responsible for ddhCTP synthesis, were among the five genes most highly correlated with ddhC abundance.

CONCLUSIONS

The antiviral precursor molecule ddhC is detectable in serum and an accurate marker for acute viral infection. Interferon-inducible genes viperin and CMPK2 are implicated in ddhC production in vivo. These findings highlight a future diagnostic role for ddhC in viral diagnosis, pandemic preparedness, and acute infection management.

FUNDING

NIHR Imperial BRC; UKRI.

Evolution of enhanced innate immune evasion by SARS-CoV-2

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern suggests viral adaptation to enhance human-to-human transmission1,2. Although much effort has focused on the characterization of changes in the spike protein in variants of concern, mutations outside of spike are likely to contribute to adaptation. Here, using unbiased abundance proteomics, phosphoproteomics, RNA sequencing and viral replication assays, we show that isolates of the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant3 suppress innate immune responses in airway epithelial cells more effectively than first-wave isolates. We found that the Alpha variant has markedly increased subgenomic RNA and protein levels of the nucleocapsid protein (N), Orf9b and Orf6-all known innate immune antagonists. Expression of Orf9b alone suppressed the innate immune response through interaction with TOM70, a mitochondrial protein that is required for activation of the RNA-sensing adaptor MAVS. Moreover, the activity of Orf9b and its association with TOM70 was regulated by phosphorylation. We propose that more effective innate immune suppression, through enhanced expression of specific viral antagonist proteins, increases the likelihood of successful transmission of the Alpha variant, and may increase in vivo replication and duration of infection4. The importance of mutations outside the spike coding region in the adaptation of SARS-CoV-2 to humans is underscored by the observation that similar mutations exist in the N and Orf9b regulatory regions of the Delta and Omicron variants.

Heterologous infection and vaccination shapes immunity against SARS-CoV-2 variants

The impact of the initial severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infecting strain on downstream immunity to heterologous variants of concern (VOCs) is unknown. Studying a longitudinal healthcare worker cohort, we found that after three antigen exposures (infection plus two vaccine doses), S1 antibody, memory B cells, and heterologous neutralization of B.1.351, P.1, and B.1.617.2 plateaued, whereas B.1.1.7 neutralization and spike T cell responses increased. Serology using the Wuhan Hu-1 spike receptor binding domain poorly predicted neutralizing immunity against VOCs. Neutralization potency against VOCs changed with heterologous virus encounter and number of antigen exposures. Neutralization potency fell differentially depending on targeted VOCs over the 5 months from the second vaccine dose. Heterologous combinations of spike encountered during infection and vaccination shape subsequent cross-protection against VOC, with implications for future-proof next-generation vaccines.

Pre-existing polymerase-specific T cells expand in abortive seronegative SARS-CoV-2

Individuals with potential exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) do not necessarily develop PCR or antibody positivity, suggesting that some individuals may clear subclinical infection before seroconversion. T cells can contribute to the rapid clearance of SARS-CoV-2 and other coronavirus infections1-3. Here we hypothesize that pre-existing memory T cell responses, with cross-protective potential against SARS-CoV-2 (refs. 4-11), would expand in vivo to support rapid viral control, aborting infection. We measured SARS-CoV-2-reactive T cells, including those against the early transcribed replication-transcription complex (RTC)12,13, in intensively monitored healthcare workers (HCWs) who tested repeatedly negative according to PCR, antibody binding and neutralization assays (seronegative HCWs (SN-HCWs)). SN-HCWs had stronger, more multispecific memory T cells compared with a cohort of unexposed individuals from before the pandemic (prepandemic cohort), and these cells were more frequently directed against the RTC than the structural-protein-dominated responses observed after detectable infection (matched concurrent cohort). SN-HCWs with the strongest RTC-specific T cells had an increase in IFI27, a robust early innate signature of SARS-CoV-2 (ref. 14), suggesting abortive infection. RNA polymerase within RTC was the largest region of high sequence conservation across human seasonal coronaviruses (HCoV) and SARS-CoV-2 clades. RNA polymerase was preferentially targeted (among the regions tested) by T cells from prepandemic cohorts and SN-HCWs. RTC-epitope-specific T cells that cross-recognized HCoV variants were identified in SN-HCWs. Enriched pre-existing RNA-polymerase-specific T cells expanded in vivo to preferentially accumulate in the memory response after putative abortive compared to overt SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our data highlight RTC-specific T cells as targets for vaccines against endemic and emerging Coronaviridae.

Aggregated Mycobacterium tuberculosis Enhances the Inflammatory Response

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) bacilli readily aggregate. We previously reported that Mtb aggregates lead to phagocyte death and subsequent efficient replication in the dead infected cells. Here, we examined the transcriptional response of human monocyte derived macrophages to phagocytosis of aggregated Mtb relative to phagocytosis of non-aggregated single or multiple bacilli. Infection with aggregated Mtb led to an early upregulation of pro-inflammatory associated genes and enhanced TNFα signaling via the NFκB pathway. These pathways were significantly more upregulated relative to infection with single or multiple non-aggregated bacilli per cell. Phagocytosis of aggregates led to a decreased phagosome acidification on a per bacillus basis and increased phagocyte cell death, which was not observed when Mtb aggregates were heat killed prior to phagocytosis. Mtb aggregates, observed in a granuloma from a patient, were found surrounding a lesion cavity. These observations suggest that TB aggregation may be a mechanism for pathogenesis. They raise the possibility that aggregated Mtb, if spread from individual to individual, could facilitate increased inflammation, Mtb growth, and macrophage cell death, potentially leading to active disease, cell necrosis, and additional cycles of transmission.

Excess deaths in people with cardiovascular diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic

AIMS

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) increase mortality risk from coronavirus infection (COVID-19). There are also concerns that the pandemic has affected supply and demand of acute cardiovascular care. We estimated excess mortality in specific CVDs, both 'direct', through infection, and 'indirect', through changes in healthcare.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used (i) national mortality data for England and Wales to investigate trends in non-COVID-19 and CVD excess deaths; (ii) routine data from hospitals in England (n = 2), Italy (n = 1), and China (n = 5) to assess indirect pandemic effects on referral, diagnosis, and treatment services for CVD; and (iii) population-based electronic health records from 3 862 012 individuals in England to investigate pre- and post-COVID-19 mortality for people with incident and prevalent CVD. We incorporated pre-COVID-19 risk (by age, sex, and comorbidities), estimated population COVID-19 prevalence, and estimated relative risk (RR) of mortality in those with CVD and COVID-19 compared with CVD and non-infected (RR: 1.2, 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0).Mortality data suggest indirect effects on CVD will be delayed rather than contemporaneous (peak RR 1.14). CVD service activity decreased by 60-100% compared with pre-pandemic levels in eight hospitals across China, Italy, and England. In China, activity remained below pre-COVID-19 levels for 2-3 months even after easing lockdown and is still reduced in Italy and England. For total CVD (incident and prevalent), at 10% COVID-19 prevalence, we estimated direct impact of 31 205 and 62 410 excess deaths in England (RR 1.5 and 2.0, respectively), and indirect effect of 49 932 to 99 865 deaths.

CONCLUSION

Supply and demand for CVD services have dramatically reduced across countries with potential for substantial, but avoidable, excess mortality during and after the pandemic.

Prior infection with SARS-CoV-2 boosts and broadens Ad26.COV2.S immunogenicity in a variant-dependent manner

The Johnson and Johnson Ad26.COV2.S single-dose vaccine represents an attractive option for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination in countries with limited resources. We examined the effect of prior infection with different SARS-CoV-2 variants on Ad26.COV2.S immunogenicity. We compared participants who were SARS-CoV-2 naive with those either infected with the ancestral D614G virus or infected in the second wave when Beta predominated. Prior infection significantly boosts spike-binding antibodies, antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity, and neutralizing antibodies against D614G, Beta, and Delta; however, neutralization cross-reactivity varied by wave. Robust CD4 and CD8 T cell responses are induced after vaccination, regardless of prior infection. T cell recognition of variants is largely preserved, apart from some reduction in CD8 recognition of Delta. Thus, Ad26.COV2.S vaccination after infection could result in enhanced protection against COVID-19. The impact of the infecting variant on neutralization breadth after vaccination has implications for the design of second-generation vaccines based on variants of concern.

Prospective Case-Control Study of Cardiovascular Abnormalities 6 Months Following Mild COVID-19 in Healthcare Workers

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to detect cardiovascular changes after mild severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 infection.

BACKGROUND

Concern exists that mild coronavirus disease 2019 may cause myocardial and vascular disease.

METHODS

Participants were recruited from COVIDsortium, a 3-hospital prospective study of 731 health care workers who underwent first-wave weekly symptom, polymerase chain reaction, and serology assessment over 4 months, with seroconversion in 21.5% (n = 157). At 6 months post-infection, 74 seropositive and 75 age-, sex-, and ethnicity-matched seronegative control subjects were recruited for cardiovascular phenotyping (comprehensive phantom-calibrated cardiovascular magnetic resonance and blood biomarkers). Analysis was blinded, using objective artificial intelligence analytics where available.

RESULTS

A total of 149 subjects (mean age 37 years, range 18 to 63 years, 58% women) were recruited. Seropositive infections had been mild with case definition, noncase definition, and asymptomatic disease in 45 (61%), 18 (24%), and 11 (15%), respectively, with 1 person hospitalized (for 2 days). Between seropositive and seronegative groups, there were no differences in cardiac structure (left ventricular volumes, mass, atrial area), function (ejection fraction, global longitudinal shortening, aortic distensibility), tissue characterization (T1, T2, extracellular volume fraction mapping, late gadolinium enhancement) or biomarkers (troponin, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide). With abnormal defined by the 75 seronegatives (2 SDs from mean, e.g., ejection fraction <54%, septal T1 >1,072 ms, septal T2 >52.4 ms), individuals had abnormalities including reduced ejection fraction (n = 2, minimum 50%), T1 elevation (n = 6), T2 elevation (n = 9), late gadolinium enhancement (n = 13, median 1%, max 5% of myocardium), biomarker elevation (borderline troponin elevation in 4; all N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide normal). These were distributed equally between seropositive and seronegative individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiovascular abnormalities are no more common in seropositive versus seronegative otherwise healthy, workforce representative individuals 6 months post-mild severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 infection.

Blood transcriptional biomarkers of acute viral infection for detection of pre-symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection: a nested, case-control diagnostic accuracy study

BACKGROUND

We hypothesised that host-response biomarkers of viral infections might contribute to early identification of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2, which is critical to breaking the chains of transmission. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of existing candidate whole-blood transcriptomic signatures for viral infection to predict positivity of nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing.

METHODS

We did a nested case-control diagnostic accuracy study among a prospective cohort of health-care workers (aged ≥18 years) at St Bartholomew's Hospital (London, UK) undergoing weekly blood and nasopharyngeal swab sampling for whole-blood RNA sequencing and SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing, when fit to attend work. We identified candidate blood transcriptomic signatures for viral infection through a systematic literature search. We searched MEDLINE for articles published between database inception and Oct 12, 2020, using comprehensive MeSH and keyword terms for "viral infection", "transcriptome", "biomarker", and "blood". We reconstructed signature scores in blood RNA sequencing data and evaluated their diagnostic accuracy for contemporaneous SARS-CoV-2 infection, compared with the gold standard of SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing, by quantifying the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), sensitivities, and specificities at a standardised Z score of at least 2 based on the distribution of signature scores in test-negative controls. We used pairwise DeLong tests compared with the most discriminating signature to identify the subset of best performing biomarkers. We evaluated associations between signature expression, viral load (using PCR cycle thresholds), and symptom status visually and using Spearman rank correlation. The primary outcome was the AUROC for discriminating between samples from participants who tested negative throughout the study (test-negative controls) and samples from participants with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (test-positive participants) during their first week of PCR positivity.

FINDINGS

We identified 20 candidate blood transcriptomic signatures of viral infection from 18 studies and evaluated their accuracy among 169 blood RNA samples from 96 participants over 24 weeks. Participants were recruited between March 23 and March 31, 2020. 114 samples were from 41 participants with SARS-CoV-2 infection, and 55 samples were from 55 test-negative controls. The median age of participants was 36 years (IQR 27-47) and 69 (72%) of 96 were women. Signatures had little overlap of component genes, but were mostly correlated as components of type I interferon responses. A single blood transcript for IFI27 provided the highest accuracy for discriminating between test-negative controls and test-positive individuals at the time of their first positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR result, with AUROC of 0·95 (95% CI 0·91-0·99), sensitivity 0·84 (0·70-0·93), and specificity 0·95 (0·85-0·98) at a predefined threshold (Z score >2). The transcript performed equally well in individuals with and without symptoms. Three other candidate signatures (including two to 48 transcripts) had statistically equivalent discrimination to IFI27 (AUROCs 0·91-0·95).

INTERPRETATION

Our findings support further urgent evaluation and development of blood IFI27 transcripts as a biomarker for early phase SARS-CoV-2 infection for screening individuals at high risk of infection, such as contacts of index cases, to facilitate early case isolation and early use of antiviral treatments as they emerge.

FUNDING

Barts Charity, Wellcome Trust, and National Institute of Health Research.

Discovery and validation of a three-gene signature to distinguish COVID-19 and other viral infections in emergency infectious disease presentations: a case-control and observational cohort study

Background

Emergency admissions for infection often lack initial diagnostic certainty. COVID-19 has highlighted a need for novel diagnostic approaches to indicate likelihood of viral infection in a pandemic setting. We aimed to derive and validate a blood transcriptional signature to detect viral infections, including COVID-19, among adults with suspected infection who presented to the emergency department.

Methods

Individuals (aged ≥18 years) presenting with suspected infection to an emergency department at a major teaching hospital in the UK were prospectively recruited as part of the Bioresource in Adult Infectious Diseases (BioAID) discovery cohort. Whole-blood RNA sequencing was done on samples from participants with subsequently confirmed viral, bacterial, or no infection diagnoses. Differentially expressed host genes that met additional filtering criteria were subjected to feature selection to derive the most parsimonious discriminating signature. We validated the signature via RT-qPCR in a prospective validation cohort of participants who presented to an emergency department with undifferentiated fever, and a second case-control validation cohort of emergency department participants with PCR-positive COVID-19 or bacterial infection. We assessed signature performance by calculating the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs), sensitivities, and specificities.

Findings

A three-gene transcript signature, comprising HERC6, IGF1R, and NAGK, was derived from the discovery cohort of 56 participants with bacterial infections and 27 with viral infections. In the validation cohort of 200 participants, the signature differentiated bacterial from viral infections with an AUROC of 0·976 (95% CI 0·919−1·000), sensitivity of 97·3% (85·8−99·9), and specificity of 100% (63·1−100). The AUROC for C-reactive protein (CRP) was 0·833 (0·694−0·944) and for leukocyte count was 0·938 (0·840−0·986). The signature achieved higher net benefit in decision curve analysis than either CRP or leukocyte count for discriminating viral infections from all other infections. In the second validation analysis, which included SARS-CoV-2-positive participants, the signature discriminated 35 bacterial infections from 34 SARS-CoV-2-positive COVID-19 infections with AUROC of 0·953 (0·893−0·992), sensitivity 88·6%, and specificity of 94·1%.

Interpretation

This novel three-gene signature discriminates viral infections, including COVID-19, from other emergency infection presentations in adults, outperforming both leukocyte count and CRP, thus potentially providing substantial clinical utility in managing acute presentations with infection.

Funding

National Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, and EU-FP7.

SARS-CoV-2 sensing by RIG-I and MDA5 links epithelial infection to macrophage inflammation

SARS-CoV-2 infection causes broad-spectrum immunopathological disease, exacerbated by inflammatory co-morbidities. A better understanding of mechanisms underpinning virus-associated inflammation is required to develop effective therapeutics. Here, we discover that SARS-CoV-2 replicates rapidly in lung epithelial cells despite triggering a robust innate immune response through the activation of cytoplasmic RNA sensors RIG-I and MDA5. The inflammatory mediators produced during epithelial cell infection can stimulate primary human macrophages to enhance cytokine production and drive cellular activation. Critically, this can be limited by abrogating RNA sensing or by inhibiting downstream signalling pathways. SARS-CoV-2 further exacerbates the local inflammatory environment when macrophages or epithelial cells are primed with exogenous inflammatory stimuli. We propose that RNA sensing of SARS-CoV-2 in lung epithelium is a key driver of inflammation, the extent of which is influenced by the inflammatory state of the local environment, and that specific inhibition of innate immune pathways may beneficially mitigate inflammation-associated COVID-19.

SARS-CoV-2 sensing by RIG-I and MDA5 links epithelial infection to macrophage inflammation

SARS-CoV-2 infection causes broad-spectrum immunopathological disease, exacerbated by inflammatory co-morbidities. A better understanding of mechanisms underpinning virus-associated inflammation is required to develop effective therapeutics. Here, we discover that SARS-CoV-2 replicates rapidly in lung epithelial cells despite triggering a robust innate immune response through the activation of cytoplasmic RNA sensors RIG-I and MDA5. The inflammatory mediators produced during epithelial cell infection can stimulate primary human macrophages to enhance cytokine production and drive cellular activation. Critically, this can be limited by abrogating RNA sensing or by inhibiting downstream signalling pathways. SARS-CoV-2 further exacerbates the local inflammatory environment when macrophages or epithelial cells are primed with exogenous inflammatory stimuli. We propose that RNA sensing of SARS-CoV-2 in lung epithelium is a key driver of inflammation, the extent of which is influenced by the inflammatory state of the local environment, and that specific inhibition of innate immune pathways may beneficially mitigate inflammation-associated COVID-19.

Exaggerated IL-17A activity in human in vivo recall responses discriminates active tuberculosis from latent infection and cured disease

Host immune responses at the site of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection can mediate pathogenesis of tuberculosis (TB) and onward transmission of infection. We hypothesized that pathological immune responses would be enriched at the site of host-pathogen interactions modelled by a standardized tuberculin skin test (TST) challenge in patients with active TB compared to those without disease, and interrogated immune responses by genome-wide transcriptional profiling. We show exaggerated interleukin (IL)-17A and Th17 responses among 48 individuals with active TB compared to 191 with latent TB infection, associated with increased neutrophil recruitment and matrix metalloproteinase-1 expression, both involved in TB pathogenesis. Curative antimicrobial treatment reversed these observed changes. Increased IL-1β and IL-6 responses to mycobacterial stimulation were evident in both circulating monocytes and in molecular changes at the site of TST in individuals with active TB, supporting a model in which monocyte-derived IL-1β and IL-6 promote Th17 differentiation within tissues. Modulation of these cytokine pathways may provide a rational strategy for host-directed therapy in active TB.

Exploring a combined biomarker for tuberculosis treatment response: protocol for a prospective observational cohort study

INTRODUCTION

An improved understanding of factors explaining tuberculosis (TB) treatment response is urgently needed to help clinicians optimise and personalise treatment and assist scientists undertaking novel treatment regimen trials. Promising outcome proxy measures, including sputum bacillary load and host immune response, are widely reported with variable results. However, they have not been studied together in combination with antibiotic exposure. The aim of this observational cohort study is to investigate which antibiotic exposures correlate with sputum bacillary load and which with the host immune response. Subsequently, we will explore if these correlations can be used to inform a candidate combined biomarker predicting cure.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

All patients aged ≥ 18, diagnosed with drug-sensitive pulmonary TB (culture or molecular test), eligible for standard anti-TB treatment, at selected London, UK TB Services, will be invited to participate in this observational cohort study (target sample size=210). Patients will be asked to give blood for host transcriptomics and antibiotic plasma exposure, in addition to standard of care sputum samples for bacillary load. Antibiotic plasma concentrations will be quantified using a validated liquid chromatograph triple quadrupole mass spectrometer (LC-MS/MS) assay and sputum bacillary load by mycobacterial growth incubator tube time to positivity. Expression from a total of 35 prespecified host blood genes will be quantified using NanoString®. Antibiotic exposure, sputum bacillary load and host blood transcriptomic time series data will be analysed using nonlinear mixed-effects models. Correlations between combinations of longitudinal biomarkers and microbiological cure at the end of treatment and remaining relapse free for 1 year thereafter will be analysed using logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The observational cohort study has been approved by the UK's HRA REC (20/SW/0007). Written informed consent will be obtained. Results will be disseminated via publication, presentation and through engagement with institutes/companies developing novel anti-TB treatment combinations.

Evolution of enhanced innate immune evasion by the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 UK variant

Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants, including the globally successful B.1.1.7 lineage, suggests viral adaptations to host selective pressures resulting in more efficient transmission. Although much effort has focused on Spike adaptation for viral entry and adaptive immune escape, B.1.1.7 mutations outside Spike likely contribute to enhance transmission. Here we used unbiased abundance proteomics, phosphoproteomics, mRNA sequencing and viral replication assays to show that B.1.1.7 isolates more effectively suppress host innate immune responses in airway epithelial cells. We found that B.1.1.7 isolates have dramatically increased subgenomic RNA and protein levels of Orf9b and Orf6, both known innate immune antagonists. Expression of Orf9b alone suppressed the innate immune response through interaction with TOM70, a mitochondrial protein required for RNA sensing adaptor MAVS activation, and Orf9b binding and activity was regulated via phosphorylation. We conclude that B.1.1.7 has evolved beyond the Spike coding region to more effectively antagonise host innate immune responses through upregulation of specific subgenomic RNA synthesis and increased protein expression of key innate immune antagonists. We propose that more effective innate immune antagonism increases the likelihood of successful B.1.1.7 transmission, and may increase in vivo replication and duration of infection.

Detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex DNA in CD34-positive peripheral blood mononuclear cells of asymptomatic tuberculosis contacts: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Haematopoietic stem cells expressing the CD34 surface marker have been posited as a niche for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex bacilli during latent tuberculosis infection. Our aim was to determine whether M tuberculosis complex DNA is detectable in CD34-positive peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) isolated from asymptomatic adults living in a setting with a high tuberculosis burden.

METHODS

We did a cross-sectional study in Ethiopia between Nov 22, 2017, and Jan 10, 2019. Digital PCR (dPCR) was used to determine whether M tuberculosis complex DNA was detectable in PBMCs isolated from 100 mL blood taken from asymptomatic adults with HIV infection or a history of recent household or occupational exposure to an index case of human or bovine tuberculosis. Participants were recruited from HIV clinics, tuberculosis clinics, and cattle farms in and around Addis Ababa. A nested prospective study was done in a subset of HIV-infected individuals to evaluate whether administration of isoniazid preventive therapy was effective in clearing M tuberculosis complex DNA from PBMCs. Follow-up was done between July 20, 2018, and Feb 13, 2019. QuantiFERON-TB Gold assays were also done on all baseline and follow-up samples.

FINDINGS

Valid dPCR data (ie, droplet counts >10 000 per well) were available for paired CD34-positive and CD34-negative PBMC fractions from 197 (70%) of 284 participants who contributed data to cross-sectional analyses. M tuberculosis complex DNA was detected in PBMCs of 156 of 197 participants with valid dPCR data (79%, 95% CI 74-85). It was more commonly present in CD34-positive than in CD34-negative fractions (154 [73%] of 197 vs 46 [23%] of 197; p<0·0001). Prevalence of dPCR-detected M tuberculosis complex DNA did not differ between QuantiFERON-negative and QuantiFERON-positive participants (77 [78%] of 99 vs 79 [81%] of 98; p=0·73), but it was higher in HIV-infected than in HIV-uninfected participants (67 [89%] of 75 vs 89 [73%] of 122, p=0·0065). By contrast, the proportion of QuantiFERON-positive participants was lower in HIV-infected than in HIV-uninfected participants (25 [33%] of 75 vs 73 [60%] of 122; p<0·0001). Administration of isoniazid preventive therapy reduced the prevalence of dPCR-detected M tuberculosis complex DNA from 41 (95%) of 43 HIV-infected individuals at baseline to 23 (53%) of 43 after treatment (p<0·0001), but it did not affect the prevalence of QuantiFERON positivity (17 [40%] of 43 at baseline vs 13 [30%] of 43 after treatment; p=0·13).

INTERPRETATION

We report a novel molecular microbiological biomarker of latent tuberculosis infection with properties that are distinct from those of a commercial interferon-γ release assay. Our findings implicate the bone marrow as a niche for M tuberculosis in latently infected individuals. Detection of M tuberculosis complex DNA in PBMCs has potential applications in the diagnosis of latent tuberculosis infection, in monitoring response to preventive therapy, and as an outcome measure in clinical trials of interventions to prevent or treat latent tuberculosis infection.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council.

Anaerobe-enriched gut microbiota predicts pro-inflammatory responses in pulmonary tuberculosis

BACKGROUND

The relationship between tuberculosis (TB), one of the leading infectious causes of death worldwide, and the microbiome, which is critical for health, is poorly understood.

METHODS

To identify potential microbiome-host interactions, profiling of the oral, sputum and stool microbiota [n = 58 cases, n = 47 culture-negative symptomatic controls (SCs)] and whole blood transcriptome were done in pre-treatment presumptive pulmonary TB patients. This was a cross-sectional study. Microbiota were also characterised in close contacts of cases (CCCs, n = 73) and close contacts of SCs (CCSCs, n = 82) without active TB.

FINDINGS

Cases and SCs each had similar α- and β-diversities in oral washes and sputum, however, β-diversity differed in stool (PERMANOVA p = 0•035). Cases were enriched with anaerobes in oral washes, sputum (Paludibacter, Lautropia in both) and stool (Erysipelotrichaceae, Blautia, Anaerostipes) and their stools enriched in microbial genes annotated as amino acid and carbohydrate metabolic pathways. In pairwise comparisons with their CCCs, cases had Megasphaera-enriched oral and sputum microbiota and Bifidobacterium-, Roseburia-, and Dorea-depleted stools. Compared to their CCSCs, SCs had reduced α-diversities and many differential taxa per specimen type. Cases differed transcriptionally from SCs in peripheral blood (PERMANOVA p = 0•001). A co-occurrence network analysis showed stool taxa, Erysipelotrichaceae and Blautia, to negatively co-correlate with enriched "death receptor" and "EIF2 signalling" pathways whereas Anaerostipes positively correlated with enriched "interferon signalling", "Nur77 signalling" and "inflammasome" pathways; all of which are host pathways associated with disease severity. In contrast, none of the taxa enriched in SCs correlated with host pathways.

INTERPRETATION

TB-specific microbial relationships were identified in oral washes, induced sputum, and stool from cases before the confounding effects of antibiotics. Specific anaerobes in cases' stool predict upregulation of pro-inflammatory immunological pathways, supporting the gut microbiota's role in TB.

FUNDING

European & Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership, South African-Medical Research Council, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Prior SARS-CoV-2 infection rescues B and T cell responses to variants after first vaccine dose

SARS-CoV-2 vaccine rollout has coincided with the spread of variants of concern. We investigated if single dose vaccination, with or without prior infection, confers cross protective immunity to variants. We analyzed T and B cell responses after first dose vaccination with the Pfizer/BioNTech mRNA vaccine BNT162b2 in healthcare workers (HCW) followed longitudinally, with or without prior Wuhan-Hu-1 SARS-CoV-2 infection. After one dose, individuals with prior infection showed enhanced T cell immunity, antibody secreting memory B cell response to spike and neutralizing antibodies effective against B.1.1.7 and B.1.351. By comparison, HCW receiving one vaccine dose without prior infection showed reduced immunity against variants. B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 spike mutations resulted in increased, abrogated or unchanged T cell responses depending on human leukocyte antigen (HLA) polymorphisms. Single dose vaccination with BNT162b2 in the context of prior infection with a heterologous variant substantially enhances neutralizing antibody responses against variants.

Longitudinal assessment of symptoms and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in healthcare workers across 5 hospitals to understand ethnic differences in infection risk

BACKGROUND

: Healthcare workers (HCWs) have increased rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with the general population. We aimed to understand ethnic differences in SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity among hospital healthcare workers depending on their hospital role, socioeconomic status, Covid-19 symptoms and basic demographics.

METHODS

A prospective longitudinal observational cohort study. 1364 HCWs at five UK hospitals were studied with up to 16 weeks of symptom questionnaires and antibody testing (to both nucleocapsid and spike protein) during the first UK wave in five NHS hospitals between March 20 and July 10 2020. The main outcome measures were SARS-CoV-2 infection (seropositivity at any time-point) and symptoms. Registration number: NCT04318314.

FINDINGS

272 of 1364 HCWs (mean age 40.7 years, 72% female, 74% White, ≥6 samples per participant) seroconverted, reporting predominantly mild or no symptoms. Seropositivity was lower in Intensive Therapy Unit (ITU) workers (OR=0.44 95%CI 0.24, 0.77; p=0.0035). Seropositivity was higher in Black (compared to White) participants, independent of age, sex, role and index of multiple deprivation (OR=2.61 95%CI 1.47-4.62 p=0.0009). No association was seen between White HCWs and other minority ethnic groups.

INTERPRETATION

In the UK first wave, Black ethnicity (but not other ethnicities) more than doubled HCWs likelihood of seropositivity, independent of age, sex, measured socio-economic factors and hospital role.

Development and validation of the ISARIC 4C Deterioration model for adults hospitalised with COVID-19: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Prognostic models to predict the risk of clinical deterioration in acute COVID-19 cases are urgently required to inform clinical management decisions.

METHODS

We developed and validated a multivariable logistic regression model for in-hospital clinical deterioration (defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) among consecutively hospitalised adults with highly suspected or confirmed COVID-19 who were prospectively recruited to the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium (ISARIC4C) study across 260 hospitals in England, Scotland, and Wales. Candidate predictors that were specified a priori were considered for inclusion in the model on the basis of previous prognostic scores and emerging literature describing routinely measured biomarkers associated with COVID-19 prognosis. We used internal-external cross-validation to evaluate discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility across eight National Health Service (NHS) regions in the development cohort. We further validated the final model in held-out data from an additional NHS region (London).

FINDINGS

74 944 participants (recruited between Feb 6 and Aug 26, 2020) were included, of whom 31 924 (43·2%) of 73 948 with available outcomes met the composite clinical deterioration outcome. In internal-external cross-validation in the development cohort of 66 705 participants, the selected model (comprising 11 predictors routinely measured at the point of hospital admission) showed consistent discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility across all eight NHS regions. In held-out data from London (n=8239), the model showed a similarly consistent performance (C-statistic 0·77 [95% CI 0·76 to 0·78]; calibration-in-the-large 0·00 [-0·05 to 0·05]); calibration slope 0·96 [0·91 to 1·01]), and greater net benefit than any other reproducible prognostic model.

INTERPRETATION

The 4C Deterioration model has strong potential for clinical utility and generalisability to predict clinical deterioration and inform decision making among adults hospitalised with COVID-19.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Department for International Development, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, EU Platform for European Preparedness Against (Re-)emerging Epidemics, NIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections at University of Liverpool, NIHR HPRU in Respiratory Infections at Imperial College London.

Time series analysis and mechanistic modelling of heterogeneity and sero-reversion in antibody responses to mild SARS‑CoV-2 infection

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV-2 serology is used to identify prior infection at individual and at population level. Extended longitudinal studies with multi-timepoint sampling to evaluate dynamic changes in antibody levels are required to identify the time horizon in which these applications of serology are valid, and to explore the longevity of protective humoral immunity.

METHODS

Healthcare workers were recruited to a prospective cohort study from the first SARS-CoV-2 epidemic peak in London, undergoing weekly symptom screen, viral PCR and blood sampling over 16-21 weeks. Serological analysis (n =12,990) was performed using semi-quantitative Euroimmun IgG to viral spike S1 domain and Roche total antibody to viral nucleocapsid protein (NP) assays. Comparisons were made to pseudovirus neutralizing antibody measurements.

FINDINGS

A total of 157/729 (21.5%) participants developed positive SARS-CoV-2 serology by one or other assay, of whom 31.0% were asymptomatic and there were no deaths. Peak Euroimmun anti-S1 and Roche anti-NP measurements correlated (r = 0.57, p<0.0001) but only anti-S1 measurements correlated with near-contemporary pseudovirus neutralising antibody titres (measured at 16-18 weeks, r = 0.57, p<0.0001). By 21 weeks' follow-up, 31/143 (21.7%) anti-S1 and 6/150 (4.0%) anti-NP measurements reverted to negative. Mathematical modelling revealed faster clearance of anti-S1 compared to anti-NP (median half-life of 2.5 weeks versus 4.0 weeks), earlier transition to lower levels of antibody production (median of 8 versus 13 weeks), and greater reductions in relative antibody production rate after the transition (median of 35% versus 50%).

INTERPRETATION

Mild SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with heterogeneous serological responses in Euroimmun anti-S1 and Roche anti-NP assays. Anti-S1 responses showed faster rates of clearance, more rapid transition from high to low level production rate and greater reduction in production rate after this transition. In mild infection, anti-S1 serology alone may underestimate incident infections. The mechanisms that underpin faster clearance and lower rates of sustained anti-S1 production may impact on the longevity of humoral immunity.

FUNDING

Charitable donations via Barts Charity, Wellcome Trust, NIHR.