Collective animal behavior from Bayesian estimation and probability matching

Probabilistic inference and Bayesian-like estimation in animals: Empirical evidence

Animals often make decisions without perfect knowledge of environmental parameters like the quality of an encountered food patch or a potential mate. Theoreticians often assume animals make such decisions using a Bayesian updating process that combines prior information about the frequency distribution of resources in the environment with sample information from an encountered resource; such a process leads to decisions that maximize fitness, given the available information. I examine three aspects of empirical work that shed light on the idea that animals can make such decisions in a Bayesian-like manner. First, many animals are sensitive to variance differences in behavioral options, one metric used to characterize frequency distributions. Second, several species use information about the relative frequency of preferred versus nonpreferred items in different populations to make probabilistic inferences about samples taken from populations in a manner that results in maximizing the likelihood of obtaining a preferred reward. Third, the predictions of Bayesian models often match the behavior of individuals in two main approaches. One approach compares behavior to models that make different assumptions about how individuals estimate the quality of an environmental parameter. The patch exploitation behavior of nine species of birds and mammals has matched the predictions of Bayesian models. The other approach compares the behavior of individuals who learn, through experience, different frequency distributions of resources in their environment. The behavior of three bird species and bumblebees exploiting food patches and fruit flies selecting mates is influenced by their experience learning different frequency distributions of food and mates, respectively, in ways consistent with Bayesian models. These studies lend support to the idea that animals may combine prior and sample information in a Bayesian-like manner to make decisions under uncertainty, but additional work on a greater diversity of species is required to better understand the generality of this ability.

Synergistic olfactory processing for social plasticity in desert locusts

Desert locust plagues threaten the food security of millions. Central to their formation is crowding-induced plasticity, with social phenotypes changing from cryptic (solitarious) to swarming (gregarious). Here, we elucidate the implications of this transition on foraging decisions and corresponding neural circuits. We use behavioral experiments and Bayesian modeling to decompose the multi-modal facets of foraging, revealing olfactory social cues as critical. To this end, we investigate how corresponding odors are encoded in the locust olfactory system using in-vivo calcium imaging. We discover crowding-dependent synergistic interactions between food-related and social odors distributed across stable combinatorial response maps. The observed synergy was specific to the gregarious phase and manifested in distinct odor response motifs. Our results suggest a crowding-induced modulation of the locust olfactory system that enhances food detection in swarms. Overall, we demonstrate how linking sensory adaptations to behaviorally relevant tasks can improve our understanding of social modulation in non-model organisms.

Indirect reciprocity with Bayesian reasoning and biases

Reputations can foster cooperation by indirect reciprocity: if I am good to you then others will be good to me. But this mechanism for cooperation in one-shot interactions only works when people agree on who is good and who is bad. Errors in actions or assessments can produce disagreements about reputations, which can unravel the positive feedback loop between social standing and pro-social behaviour. Cooperators can end up punished and defectors rewarded. Public reputation systems and empathy are two possible mechanisms to promote agreement about reputations. Here we suggest an alternative: Bayesian reasoning by observers. By taking into account the probabilities of errors in action and observation and their prior beliefs about the prevalence of good people in the population, observers can use Bayesian reasoning to determine whether or not someone is good. To study this scenario, we develop an evolutionary game theoretical model in which players use Bayesian reasoning to assess reputations, either publicly or privately. We explore this model analytically and numerically for five social norms (Scoring, Shunning, Simple Standing, Staying, and Stern Judging). We systematically compare results to the case when agents do not use reasoning in determining reputations. We find that Bayesian reasoning reduces cooperation relative to non-reasoning, except in the case of the Scoring norm. Under Scoring, Bayesian reasoning can promote coexistence of three strategic types. Additionally, we study the effects of optimistic or pessimistic biases in individual beliefs about the degree of cooperation in the population. We find that optimism generally undermines cooperation whereas pessimism can, in some cases, promote cooperation.

The functional aspects of selective exposure for collective decision-making under social influence

Opinion diversity is crucial for collective decision-making, but maintaining it becomes challenging in the face of social influence. We propose selective exposure as an endogenous mechanism that preserves opinion diversity by forming exclusive subgroups of like-minded individuals, or echo chambers, which have been often perceived as an obstacle to achieving collective intelligence. We consider situations where a group of agents collectively make decisions about the true state of nature with the assumption that agents update their opinions by adopting the aggregated opinions of their information sources (i.e., naïve learning), or alternatively, replace incongruent sources with more like-minded others without adjusting their opinions (i.e., selective exposure). Individual opinions at steady states reached under these dynamics are then aggregated to form collective decisions, and their quality is assessed. The results suggest that the diversity-reducing effects of social influence are effectively confined within subgroups formed by selective exposure. More importantly, strong propensities for selective exposure maintain the quality of collective decisions at a level as high as that achieved in the absence of social influence. In contrast, naïve learning allows groups to reach consensuses, which are more accurate than initial individual opinions, but significantly undermines the quality of collective decisions.

Low-frequency band noise generated by industrial recirculating aquaculture systems exhibits a greater impact on Micropterus salmoidess

The effect of underwater noise environment generated by equipment in industrial recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS) on fish is evident. However, different equipment generate noise in various frequency ranges. Understanding the effects of different frequency ranges noise on cultured species is important for optimizing the underwater acoustic environment in RAS. Given this, the effects of underwater noise across various frequency bands in RAS on the growth, physiology, and collective behavior of juvenile largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) were comprehensively evaluated here. In this study, three control groups were established: low-frequency noise group (80-1000 Hz, 117 dB re 1μPa RMS), high-frequency noise group (1-19 kHz, 117 dB re 1μPa RMS), and ambient group. During a 30-day experiment, it was found that: 1) industrial RAS noise with different frequency bands all had a certain inhibitory effect on the growth of fish, which the weight gain rate and product of length and depth of caudal peduncle in the ambient group were significantly higher than those of the two noise groups, with the low-frequency noise group showing significantly lower values than the high-frequency noise group; 2) industrial RAS noise had a certain degree of adverse effect on the digestive ability of fish, with the low-frequency noise group being more affected; 3) industrial RAS noise affected the collective feeding behavior of fish, with the collective feeding signal propagation efficiency and feeding intensity of the noise groups being significantly lower than those of the ambient group, and the high-frequency noise group performing better than the low-frequency noise group as a whole therein. From the above, the underwater noise across different frequency bands generated by equipment operation in industrial RAS both had an impact on juvenile largemouth bass, with the low-frequency noise group being more severely affected.

Federated inference and belief sharing

This paper concerns the distributed intelligence or federated inference that emerges under belief-sharing among agents who share a common world-and world model. Imagine, for example, several animals keeping a lookout for predators. Their collective surveillance rests upon being able to communicate their beliefs-about what they see-among themselves. But, how is this possible? Here, we show how all the necessary components arise from minimising free energy. We use numerical studies to simulate the generation, acquisition and emergence of language in synthetic agents. Specifically, we consider inference, learning and selection as minimising the variational free energy of posterior (i.e., Bayesian) beliefs about the states, parameters and structure of generative models, respectively. The common theme-that attends these optimisation processes-is the selection of actions that minimise expected free energy, leading to active inference, learning and model selection (a.k.a., structure learning). We first illustrate the role of communication in resolving uncertainty about the latent states of a partially observed world, on which agents have complementary perspectives. We then consider the acquisition of the requisite language-entailed by a likelihood mapping from an agent's beliefs to their overt expression (e.g., speech)-showing that language can be transmitted across generations by active learning. Finally, we show that language is an emergent property of free energy minimisation, when agents operate within the same econiche. We conclude with a discussion of various perspectives on these phenomena; ranging from cultural niche construction, through federated learning, to the emergence of complexity in ensembles of self-organising systems.

Flexible social inference facilitates targeted social learning when rewards are not observable

Groups coordinate more effectively when individuals are able to learn from others' successes. But acquiring such knowledge is not always easy, especially in real-world environments where success is hidden from public view. We suggest that social inference capacities may help bridge this gap, allowing individuals to update their beliefs about others' underlying knowledge and success from observable trajectories of behaviour. We compared our social inference model against simpler heuristics in three studies of human behaviour in a collective-sensing task. Experiment 1 demonstrated that average performance improved as a function of group size at a rate greater than predicted by heuristic models. Experiment 2 introduced artificial agents to evaluate how individuals selectively rely on social information. Experiment 3 generalized these findings to a more complex reward landscape. Taken together, our findings provide insight into the relationship between individual social cognition and the flexibility of collective behaviour.

A study of transfer of information in animal collectives using deep learning tools

We studied how the interactions among animals in a collective allow for the transfer of information. We performed laboratory experiments to study how zebrafish in a collective follow a subset of trained animals that move towards a light when it turns on because they expect food at that location. We built some deep learning tools to distinguish from video which are the trained and the naïve animals and to detect when each animal reacts to the light turning on. These tools gave us the data to build a model of interactions that we designed to have a balance between transparency and accuracy. The model finds a low-dimensional function that describes how a naïve animal weights neighbours depending on focal and neighbour variables. According to this low-dimensional function, neighbour speed plays an important role in the interactions. Specifically, a naïve animal weights more a neighbour in front than to the sides or behind, and more so the faster the neighbour is moving; and if the neighbour moves fast enough, the differences coming from the neighbour's relative position largely disappear. From the lens of decision-making, neighbour speed acts as confidence measure about where to go. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Collective behaviour through time'.

Inferring social influence in animal groups across multiple timescales

Many animal behaviours exhibit complex temporal dynamics, suggesting there are multiple timescales at which they should be studied. However, researchers often focus on behaviours that occur over relatively restricted temporal scales, typically ones that are more accessible to human observation. The situation becomes even more complex when considering multiple animals interacting, where behavioural coupling can introduce new timescales of importance. Here, we present a technique to study the time-varying nature of social influence in mobile animal groups across multiple temporal scales. As case studies, we analyse golden shiner fish and homing pigeons, which move in different media. By analysing pairwise interactions among individuals, we show that predictive power of the factors affecting social influence depends on the timescale of analysis. Over short timescales the relative position of a neighbour best predicts its influence and the distribution of influence across group members is relatively linear, with a small slope. At longer timescales, however, both relative position and kinematics are found to predict influence, and nonlinearity in the influence distribution increases, with a small number of individuals being disproportionately influential. Our results demonstrate that different interpretations of social influence arise from analysing behaviour at different timescales, highlighting the importance of considering its multiscale nature. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Collective behaviour through time'.

Casting votes of antecedents play a key role in successful sequential decision-making

Aggregation of opinions often results in high decision-making accuracy, owing to the collective intelligence effect. Studies on group decisions have examined the optimum weights for opinion aggregation to maximise accuracy. In addition to the optimum weights of opinions, the impact of the correlation among opinions on collective intelligence is a major issue in collective decision-making. We investigated how individuals should weigh the opinions of others and their own to maximise their accuracy in sequential decision-making. In our sequential decision-making model, each person makes a primary choice, observes his/her predecessors' opinions, and makes a final choice, which results in the person's answer correlating with those of others. We developed an algorithm to find casting voters whose primary choices are determinative of their answers and revealed that decision accuracy is maximised by considering only the abilities of the preceding casting voters. We also found that for individuals with heterogeneous abilities, the order of decision-making has a significant impact on the correlation between their answers and their accuracies. This could lead to a counter-intuitive phenomenon whereby, in sequential decision-making, respondents are, on average, more accurate when less reliable individuals answer earlier and more reliable individuals answer later.

Stochastic dynamics of social patch foraging decisions

Animals typically forage in groups. Social foraging can help animals avoid predation and decrease their uncertainty about the richness of food resources. Despite this, theoretical mechanistic models of patch foraging have overwhelmingly focused on the behavior of single foragers. In this study, we develop a mechanistic model that accounts for the behavior of individuals foraging together and departing food patches following an evidence accumulation process. Each individual's belief about patch quality is represented by a stochastically accumulating variable, which is coupled to another's belief to represent the transfer of information. We consider a cohesive group, and model information sharing by considering both intermittent pulsatile coupling (only communicate decision to leave) and continuous diffusive coupling (communicate throughout the deliberation process). Groups employing pulsatile coupling can obtain higher foraging efficiency, which depends more strongly on the coupling parameter compared to those using diffusive coupling. Conversely, groups using diffusive coupling are more robust to changes and heterogeneities in belief weighting and departure criteria. Efficiency is measured by a reward rate function that balances the amount of energy accumulated against the time spent in a patch, computed by solving an ordered first passage time problem for the patch departures of each individual. Using synthetic departure time data, we can distinguish between the two modes of communication and identify the model parameters. Our model establishes a social patch foraging framework to identify deliberative decision strategies and forms of social communication, and to allow model fitting to field data from foraging animal groups.

Unsupervised Bayesian Ising Approximation for decoding neural activity and other biological dictionaries

The problem of deciphering how low-level patterns (action potentials in the brain, amino acids in a protein, etc.) drive high-level biological features (sensorimotor behavior, enzymatic function) represents the central challenge of quantitative biology. The lack of general methods for doing so from the size of datasets that can be collected experimentally severely limits our understanding of the biological world. For example, in neuroscience, some sensory and motor codes have been shown to consist of precisely timed multi-spike patterns. However, the combinatorial complexity of such pattern codes have precluded development of methods for their comprehensive analysis. Thus, just as it is hard to predict a protein's function based on its sequence, we still do not understand how to accurately predict an organism's behavior based on neural activity. Here we introduce the unsupervised Bayesian Ising Approximation (uBIA) for solving this class of problems. We demonstrate its utility in an application to neural data, detecting precisely timed spike patterns that code for specific motor behaviors in a songbird vocal system. In data recorded during singing from neurons in a vocal control region, our method detects such codewords with an arbitrary number of spikes, does so from small data sets, and accounts for dependencies in occurrences of codewords. Detecting such comprehensive motor control dictionaries can improve our understanding of skilled motor control and the neural bases of sensorimotor learning in animals. To further illustrate the utility of uBIA, used it to identify the distinct sets of activity patterns that encode vocal motor exploration versus typical song production. Crucially, our method can be used not only for analysis of neural systems, but also for understanding the structure of correlations in other biological and nonbiological datasets.

Modelling collective navigation via non-local communication

Collective migration occurs throughout the animal kingdom, and demands both the interpretation of navigational cues and the perception of other individuals within the group. Navigational cues orient individuals towards a destination, while it has been demonstrated that communication between individuals enhances navigation through a reduction in orientation error. We develop a mathematical model of collective navigation that synthesizes navigational cues and perception of other individuals. Crucially, this approach incorporates uncertainty inherent to cue interpretation and perception in the decision making process, which can arise due to noisy environments. We demonstrate that collective navigation is more efficient than individual navigation, provided a threshold number of other individuals are perceptible. This benefit is even more pronounced in low navigation information environments. In navigation ‘blindspots’, where no information is available, navigation is enhanced through a relay that connects individuals in information-poor regions to individuals in information-rich regions. As an expository case study, we apply our framework to minke whale migration in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, and quantify the decrease in navigation ability due to anthropogenic noise pollution.

Uncertainty drives deviations in normative foraging decision strategies

Nearly all animals forage to acquire energy for survival through efficient search and resource harvesting. Patch exploitation is a canonical foraging behaviour, but there is a need for more tractable and understandable mathematical models describing how foragers deal with uncertainty. To provide such a treatment, we develop a normative theory of patch foraging decisions, proposing mechanisms by which foraging behaviours emerge in the face of uncertainty. Our model foragers statistically and sequentially infer patch resource yields using Bayesian updating based on their resource encounter history. A decision to leave a patch is triggered when the certainty of the patch type or the estimated yield of the patch falls below a threshold. The time scale over which uncertainty in resource availability persists strongly impacts behavioural variables like patch residence times and decision rules determining patch departures. When patch depletion is slow, as in habitat selection, departures are characterized by a reduction of uncertainty, suggesting that the forager resides in a low-yielding patch. Uncertainty leads patch-exploiting foragers to overharvest (underharvest) patches with initially low (high) resource yields in comparison with predictions of the marginal value theorem. These results extend optimal foraging theory and motivate a variety of behavioural experiments investigating patch foraging behaviour.

Optimal use of simplified social information in sequential decision-making

Social animals can improve their decisions by attending to those made by others. The benefit of this social information must be balanced against the costs of obtaining and processing it. Previous work has focused on rational agents that respond optimally to a sequence of prior decisions. However, full decision sequences are potentially costly to perceive and process. As such, animals may rely on simpler social information, which will affect the social behaviour they exhibit. Here, I derive the optimal policy for agents responding to simplified forms of social information. I show how the behaviour of agents attending to the aggregate number of previous choices differs from those attending to just the most recent prior decision, and I propose a hybrid strategy that provides a highly accurate approximation to the optimal policy with the full sequence. Finally, I analyse the evolutionary stability of each strategy, showing that the hybrid strategy dominates when cognitive costs are low but non-zero, while attending to the most recent decision is dominant when costs are high. These results show that agents can employ highly effective social decision-making rules without requiring unrealistic cognitive capacities, and indicate likely ecological variation in the social information different animals attend to.

Bayesian collective learning emerges from heuristic social learning

Researchers across cognitive science, economics, and evolutionary biology have studied the ubiquitous phenomenon of social learning-the use of information about other people's decisions to make your own. Decision-making with the benefit of the accumulated knowledge of a community can result in superior decisions compared to what people can achieve alone. However, groups of people face two coupled challenges in accumulating knowledge to make good decisions: (1) aggregating information and (2) addressing an informational public goods problem known as the exploration-exploitation dilemma. Here, we show how a Bayesian social sampling model can in principle simultaneously optimally aggregate information and nearly optimally solve the exploration-exploitation dilemma. The key idea we explore is that Bayesian rationality at the level of a population can be implemented through a more simplistic heuristic social learning mechanism at the individual level. This simple individual-level behavioral rule in the context of a group of decision-makers functions as a distributed algorithm that tracks a Bayesian posterior in population-level statistics. We test this model using a large-scale dataset from an online financial trading platform.

TRex, a fast multi-animal tracking system with markerless identification, and 2D estimation of posture and visual fields

Automated visual tracking of animals is rapidly becoming an indispensable tool for the study of behavior. It offers a quantitative methodology by which organisms’ sensing and decision-making can be studied in a wide range of ecological contexts. Despite this, existing solutions tend to be challenging to deploy in practice, especially when considering long and/or high-resolution video-streams. Here, we present TRex, a fast and easy-to-use solution for tracking a large number of individuals simultaneously using background-subtraction with real-time (60 Hz) tracking performance for up to approximately 256 individuals and estimates 2D visual-fields, outlines, and head/rear of bilateral animals, both in open and closed-loop contexts. Additionally, TRex offers highly accurate, deep-learning-based visual identification of up to approximately 100 unmarked individuals, where it is between 2.5 and 46.7 times faster, and requires 2–10 times less memory, than comparable software (with relative performance increasing for more organisms/longer videos) and provides interactive data-exploration within an intuitive, platform-independent graphical user-interface.

Follow the straggler: zebrafish use a simple heuristic for collective decision-making

Animal groups often make decisions sequentially, from the front to the back of the group. In such cases, individuals can use the choices made by earlier ranks, a form of social information, to inform their own choice. The optimal strategy for such decisions has been explored in models which differ on, for example, whether or not agents take into account the sequence of observed choices. The models demonstrate that choices made later in a sequence are more informative, but it is not clear if animals use this information or rely instead on simpler heuristics, such as quorum rules. We show that a simple rule 'copy the last observed choice', gives similar predictions to those of optimal models for most likely sequences. We trained groups of zebrafish to choose one arm of a Y-maze and used them to demonstrate various sequences to naive fish. We show that the naive fish appear to use a simple rule, most often copying the choice of the last demonstrator, which results in near-optimal choices at a fraction of the computational cost.

Lévy Walk in Swarm Models Based on Bayesian and Inverse Bayesian Inference

While swarming behavior is regarded as a critical phenomenon in phase transition and frequently shows the properties of a critical state such as Lévy walk, a general mechanism to explain the critical property in swarming behavior has not yet been found. Here, we address this problem with a simple swarm model, the Self-Propelled Particle (SPP) model, and propose a way to explain this critical behavior by introducing agents making decisions via the data-hypothesis interaction in Bayesian inference, namely, Bayesian and inverse Bayesian inference (BIB). We compare three SPP models, namely, the simple SPP, the SPP with Bayesian-only inference (BO) and the SPP with BIB models. We show that only the BIB model entails coexisting tornado, splash and translation behaviors, and the Lévy walk pattern.

Heterogeneity Improves Speed and Accuracy in Social Networks

How does temporally structured private and social information shape collective decisions? To address this question we consider a network of rational agents who independently accumulate private evidence that triggers a decision upon reaching a threshold. When seen by the whole network, the first agent's choice initiates a wave of new decisions; later decisions have less impact. In heterogeneous networks, first decisions are made quickly by impulsive individuals who need little evidence to make a choice but, even when wrong, can reveal the correct options to nearly everyone else. We conclude that groups comprised of diverse individuals can make more efficient decisions than homogenous ones.

Unpacking chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes) patch use: Do individuals respond to food patches as predicted by the marginal value theorem?

The marginal value theorem is an optimal foraging model that predicts how efficient foragers should respond to both their ecological and social environments when foraging in food patches, and it has strongly influenced hypotheses for primate behavior. Nevertheless, experimental tests of the marginal value theorem have been rare in primates and observational studies have provided conflicting support. As a step towards filling this gap, we test whether the foraging decisions of captive chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) adhere to the assumptions and qualitative predictions of the marginal value theorem. We presented 12 adult chimpanzees with a two-patch foraging environment consisting of both low-quality (i.e., low-food density) and high-quality (i.e., high-food density) patches and examined the effect of patch quality on their search behavior, foraging duration, marginal capture rate, and its proxy measures: giving-up density and giving-up time. Chimpanzees foraged longer in high-quality patches, as predicted. In contrast to predictions, they did not depress high-quality patches as thoroughly as low-quality patches. Furthermore, since chimpanzees searched in a manner that fell between systematic and random, their intake rates did not decline at a steady rate over time, especially in high-quality patches, violating an assumption of the marginal value theorem. Our study provides evidence that chimpanzees are sensitive to their rate of energy intake and that their foraging durations correlate with patch quality, supporting many assumptions underlying primate foraging and social behavior. However, our results question whether the marginal value theorem is a constructive model of chimpanzee foraging behavior, and we suggest a Bayesian foraging framework (i.e., combining past foraging experiences with current patch sampling information) as a potential alternative. More work is needed to build an understanding of the proximate mechanisms underlying primate foraging decisions, especially in more complex socioecological environments.

Collective decision-making by rational agents with differing preferences

Collective decisions can emerge from individual-level interactions between members of a group. These interactions are often seen as social feedback rules, whereby individuals copy the decisions they observe others making, creating a coherent group decision. The benefit of these behavioral rules to the individual agent can be understood as a transfer of information, whereby a focal individual learns about the world by gaining access to the information possessed by others. Previous studies have analyzed this exchange of information by assuming that all agents share common goals. While differences in information and differences in preferences have often been conflated, little is known about how differences between agents' underlying preferences affect the use and efficacy of social information. In this paper, I develop a model of social information use by rational agents with differing preferences, and demonstrate that the resulting collective behavior is strongly dependent on the structure of preference sharing within the group, as well as the quality of information in the environment. In particular, I show that strong social responses are expected by individuals that are habituated to noisy, uncertain environments where private information about the world is relatively weak. Furthermore, by investigating heterogeneous group structures, I demonstrate a potential influence of cryptic minority subgroups that may illuminate the empirical link between personality and leadership.

Modular structure within groups causes information loss but can improve decision accuracy

Many animal groups exhibit signatures of persistent internal modular structure, whereby individuals consistently interact with certain groupmates more than others. In such groups, information relevant to a collective decision may spread unevenly through the group, but how this impacts the quality of the resulting decision is not well understood. Here, we explicitly model modularity within animal groups and examine how it affects the amount of information represented in collective decisions, as well as the accuracy of those decisions. We find that modular structure necessarily causes a loss of information, effectively silencing the input from a fraction of the group. However, the effect of this information loss on collective accuracy depends on the informational environment in which the decision is made. In simple environments, the information loss is detrimental to collective accuracy. By contrast, in complex environments, modularity tends to improve accuracy. This is because small group sizes typically maximize collective accuracy in such environments, and modular structure allows a large group to behave like a smaller group (in terms of its decision-making). These results suggest that in naturalistic environments containing correlated information, large animal groups may be able to exploit modular structure to improve decision accuracy while retaining other benefits of large group size.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Liquid brains, solid brains: How distributed cognitive architectures process information’.

Deep attention networks reveal the rules of collective motion in zebrafish

A variety of simple models has been proposed to understand the collective motion of animals. These models can be insightful but may lack important elements necessary to predict the motion of each individual in the collective. Adding more detail increases predictability but can make models too complex to be insightful. Here we report that deep attention networks can obtain a model of collective behavior that is simultaneously predictive and insightful thanks to an organization in modules. When using simulated trajectories, the model recovers the ground-truth interaction rule used to generate them, as well as the number of interacting neighbours. For experimental trajectories of large groups of 60-100 zebrafish, Danio rerio, the model obtains that interactions between pairs can approximately be described as repulsive, attractive or as alignment, but only when moving slowly. At high velocities, interactions correspond only to alignment or alignment mixed with repulsion at close distances. The model also shows that each zebrafish decides where to move by aggregating information from the group as a weighted average over neighbours. Weights are higher for neighbours that are close, in a collision path or moving faster in frontal and lateral locations. The network also extracts that the number of interacting individuals is dynamical and typically in the range 8–22, with 1–10 more important ones. Our results suggest that each animal decides by dynamically selecting information from the collective.

Simple models have traditionally been very successful, because they usually provide more insight than complicated models. This is particularly true in physics, where simple models can often give highly precise quantitative predictions. However, biology is fundamentally complex and thus it is difficult to find simple models that give precise predictions. To create models that are both precise and insightful, we propose to harness the power of deep neural networks but to confine them into modules with a low number of inputs and outputs. We trained one such model to predict the future turning side of a fish in a collective. By plotting the different modules we obtain insight about how fish interact and how they aggregate information from different neighbours. This aggregation is dynamical and shows that fish can interact with approximately 20 neighbours but can also focus on fewer neighbours, down to 1-2, when some move at higher speed in front or to the sides, are very close or are in a collision path.

Quorums enable optimal pooling of independent judgements in biological systems

Collective decision-making is ubiquitous, and majority-voting and the Condorcet Jury Theorem pervade thinking about collective decision-making. Thus, it is typically assumed that majority-voting is the best possible decision mechanism, and that scenarios exist where individually-weak decision-makers should not pool information. Condorcet and its applications implicitly assume that only one kind of error can be made, yet signal detection theory shows two kinds of errors exist, 'false positives' and 'false negatives'. We apply signal detection theory to collective decision-making to show that majority voting is frequently sub-optimal, and can be optimally replaced by quorum decision-making. While quorums have been proposed to resolve within-group conflicts, or manage speed-accuracy trade-offs, our analysis applies to groups with aligned interests undertaking single-shot decisions. Our results help explain the ubiquity of quorum decision-making in nature, relate the use of sub- and super-majority quorums to decision ecology, and may inform the design of artificial decision-making systems.

Editorial note

This article has been through an editorial process in which the authors decide how to respond to the issues raised during peer review. The Reviewing Editor's assessment is that all the issues have been addressed (see decision letter).

Inverse Bayesian inference in swarming behaviour of soldier crabs

Animals making a group sometimes approach and sometimes avoid a dense area of group mates, and that reveals the ambiguity of density preference. Although the ambiguity is not expressed by a simple deterministic local rule, it seems to be implemented by probabilistic inference that is based on Bayesian and inverse Bayesian inference. In particular, the inverse Bayesian process refers to perpetual changing of hypotheses. We here analyse a time series of swarming soldier crabs and show that they are employed to Bayesian and inverse Bayesian inference. Comparing simulation results with data of the real swarm, we show that the interpretation of the movement of soldier crabs which can be based on the inference can lead to the identification of a drastic phase shift-like transition of gathering and dispersing.This article is part of the theme issue 'Dissipative structures in matter out of equilibrium: from chemistry, photonics and biology (part 2)'.

Choice modelling with Gaussian processes in the social sciences: A case study of neighbourhood choice in Stockholm

We present a non-parametric extension of the conditional logit model, using Gaussian process priors. The conditional logit model is used in quantitative social science for inferring interaction effects between personal features and choice characteristics from observations of individual multinomial decisions, such as where to live, which car to buy or which school to choose. The classic, parametric model presupposes a latent utility function that is a linear combination of choice characteristics and their interactions with personal features. This imposes strong and unrealistic constraints on the form of individuals' preferences. Extensions using non-linear basis functions derived from the original features can ameliorate this problem but at the cost of high model complexity and increased reliance on the user in model specification. In this paper we develop a non-parametric conditional logit model based on Gaussian process logit models. We demonstrate its application on housing choice data from over 50,000 moving households from the Stockholm area over a two year period to reveal complex homophilic patterns in income, ethnicity and parental status.

Collective decision making by rational individuals

The patterns and mechanisms of collective decision making in humans and animals have attracted both empirical and theoretical attention. Of particular interest has been the variety of social feedback rules and the extent to which these behavioral rules can be explained and predicted from theories of rational estimation and decision making. However, models that aim to model the full range of social information use have incorporated ad hoc departures from rational decision-making theory to explain the apparent stochasticity and variability of behavior. In this paper I develop a model of social information use and collective decision making by fully rational agents that reveals how a wide range of apparently stochastic social decision rules emerge from fundamental information asymmetries both between individuals and between the decision makers and the observer of those decisions. As well as showing that rational decision making is consistent with empirical observations of collective behavior, this model makes several testable predictions about how individuals make decisions in groups and offers a valuable perspective on how we view sources of variability in animal, and human, behavior.

Born to Run? Quantifying the Balance of Prior Bias and New Information in Prey Escape Decisions

Animal behaviors can often be challenging to model and predict, though optimality theory has improved our ability to do so. While many qualitative predictions of behavior exist, accurate quantitative models, tested by empirical data, are often lacking. This is likely due to variation in biases across individuals and variation in the way new information is gathered and used. We propose a modeling framework based on a novel interpretation of Bayes's theorem to integrate optimization of energetic constraints with both prior biases and specific sources of new information gathered by individuals. We present methods for inferring distributions of prior biases within populations rather than assuming known priors, as is common in Bayesian approaches to modeling behavior, and for evaluating the goodness of fit of overall model descriptions. We apply this framework to predict optimal escape during predator-prey encounters, based on prior biases and variation in what information prey use. Using this approach, we collected and analyzed data characterizing white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) escape behavior in response to human approaches. We found that distance to predator alone was not sufficient to predict deer flight response and show that the inclusion of additional information is necessary. We also compared differences in the inferred distributions of prior biases across different populations and discuss the possible role of human activity in influencing these distributions.

Adversity magnifies the importance of social information in decision-making

Decision-making theories explain animal behaviour, including human behaviour, as a response to estimations about the environment. In the case of collective behaviour, they have given quantitative predictions of how animals follow the majority option. However, they have so far failed to explain that in some species and contexts social cohesion increases when conditions become more adverse (i.e. individuals choose the majority option with higher probability when the estimated quality of all available options decreases). We have found that this failure is due to modelling simplifications that aided analysis, like low levels of stochasticity or the assumption that only one choice is the correct one. We provide a more general but simple geometric framework to describe optimal or suboptimal decisions in collectives that gives insight into three different mechanisms behind this effect. The three mechanisms have in common that the private information acts as a gain factor to social information: a decrease in the privately estimated quality of all available options increases the impact of social information, even when social information itself remains unchanged. This increase in the importance of social information makes it more likely that agents will follow the majority option. We show that these results quantitatively explain collective behaviour in fish and experiments of social influence in humans.

Information sharing for a coordination game in fluctuating environments

Collective action dilemmas pervade the social and biological sciences - from human decision-making to bacterial quorum sensing. In these scenarios, individuals sense cues from the environment to adopt a suitable phenotype or change in behavior. However, when cues include signals from other individuals, then the appropriate behavior of each individual is linked. Here, we develop a framework to quantify the influence of information sharing on individual behavior in the context of two player coordination games. In this framework, the environment stochastically switches between two states, and the state determines which one of two actions players must coordinate on. Given a stochastically switching environment, we then consider two versions of the game that differ in the way players acquire information. In the first model, players independently sense private environmental cues, but do not communicate with each other. We find there are two types of strategies that emerge as Nash equilibria and fitness maximizers - players prefer to commit to one particular action when private information is poor, or prefer to employ phenotypic plasticity when it is good. The second model adds an additional layer of communication, where players share social cues as well. When the quality of social information is high, we find the socially optimal strategy is a novel "majority logic" strategy that bases decision-making on social cues. Our game-theoretic approach offers a principled way of investigating the role of communication in group decision-making under uncertain conditions.

Criticality triggers the emergence of collective intelligence in groups

A spinlike model mimicking human behavior in groups is employed to investigate the dynamics of the decision-making process. Within the model, the temporal evolution of the state of systems is governed by a time-continuous Markov chain. The transition rates of the resulting master equation are defined in terms of the change of interaction energy between the neighboring agents (change of the level of conflict) and the change of a locally defined agent fitness. Three control parameters can be identified: (i) the social interaction strength βJ measured in units of social temperature, (ii) the level of confidence β^{'} that each individual has on his own expertise, and (iii) the level of knowledge p that identifies the expertise of each member. Based on these three parameters, the phase diagrams of the system show that a critical transition front exists where a sharp and concurrent change in fitness and consensus takes place. We show that at the critical front, the information leakage from the fitness landscape to the agents is maximized. This event triggers the emergence of the collective intelligence of the group, and in the end it leads to a dramatic improvement in the decision-making performance of the group. The effect of size M of the system is also investigated, showing that, depending on the value of the control parameters, increasing M may be either beneficial or detrimental.

Signatures of optimal control in pairs of schooling zebrafish

Animals moving in groups coordinate their motion to remain cohesive. A large amount of data and analysis of movement coordination has been obtained in several species, but we are lacking theoretical frameworks that can derive the form of coordination rules. Here, we examine whether optimal control theory can predict the rules underlying social interactions from first principles. We find that a control rule which is designed to minimize the time it would take a pair of schooling fish to form a cohesively moving unit correctly predicts the characteristics of social interactions in fish. Our methodology explains why social attraction is negatively modulated by self-motion velocity and positively modulated by partner motion velocity, and how the biomechanics of fish swimming can shape the form of social forces. Crucially, the values of all parameters in our model can be estimated from independent experiments that need not relate to measurement of social interactions. We test our theory by showing a good match with experimentally observed social interaction rules in zebrafish. In addition to providing a theoretical rationale for observed decision rules, we suggest that this framework opens new questions about tuning problems and learnability of collective behaviours.

Ontogeny of collective behavior reveals a simple attraction rule

The striking patterns of collective animal behavior, including ant trails, bird flocks, and fish schools, can result from local interactions among animals without centralized control. Several of these rules of interaction have been proposed, but it has proven difficult to discriminate which ones are implemented in nature. As a method to better discriminate among interaction rules, we propose to follow the slow birth of a rule of interaction during animal development. Specifically, we followed the development of zebrafish, Danio rerio, and found that larvae turn toward each other from 7 days postfertilization and increase the intensity of interactions until 3 weeks. This developmental dataset allows testing the parameter-free predictions of a simple rule in which animals attract each other part of the time, with attraction defined as turning toward another animal chosen at random. This rule makes each individual likely move to a high density of conspecifics, and moving groups naturally emerge. Development of attraction strength corresponds to an increase in the time spent in attraction behavior. Adults were found to follow the same attraction rule, suggesting a potential significance for adults of other species.

Collective Behavior of Market Participants during Abrupt Stock Price Changes

Under uncertainty, human and animal collectives often respond stochastically to events they encounter. Human or animal individuals behave depending on others’ actions, and sometimes follow choices that are sub-optimal for individuals. Such mimetic behaviors are enhanced during emergencies, creating collective behavior of a group. A stock market that is about to crash, as markets did immediately after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, provides illustrative examples of such behaviors. We provide empirical evidence proving the existence of collective behavior among stock market participants in emergent situations. We investigated the resolution of extreme supply-and-demand order imbalances by increased balancing counter orders: buy and sell orders for excess supply and demand respectively, during times of price adjustment, so-called special quotes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Counter orders increase positively depending on the quantity of revealed counter orders: the accumulated orders in the book until then. Statistics of the coming counter order are well described using a logistic regression model with the ratio of revealed orders until then to the finally revealed orders as the explanatory variable. Results given here show that the market participants make Bayesian estimations of optimal choices to ascertain whether to order using information about orders of other participants.

The entropic basis of collective behaviour

We identify a unique viewpoint on the collective behaviour of intelligent agents. We first develop a highly general abstract model for the possible future lives these agents may encounter as a result of their decisions. In the context of these possibilities, we show that the causal entropic principle, whereby agents follow behavioural rules that maximize their entropy over all paths through the future, predicts many of the observed features of social interactions among both human and animal groups. Our results indicate that agents are often able to maximize their future path entropy by remaining cohesive as a group and that this cohesion leads to collectively intelligent outcomes that depend strongly on the distribution of the number of possible future paths. We derive social interaction rules that are consistent with maximum entropy group behaviour for both discrete and continuous decision spaces. Our analysis further predicts that social interactions are likely to be fundamentally based on Weber's law of response to proportional stimuli, supporting many studies that find a neurological basis for this stimulus–response mechanism and providing a novel basis for the common assumption of linearly additive ‘social forces’ in simulation studies of collective behaviour.

Combining personal with social information facilitates host defences and explains why cuckoos should be secretive

Individuals often vary defences in response to local predation or parasitism risk. But how should they assess threat levels when it pays their enemies to hide? For common cuckoo hosts, assessing parasitism risk is challenging: cuckoo eggs are mimetic and adult cuckoos are secretive and resemble hawks. Here, we show that egg rejection by reed warblers depends on combining personal and social information of local risk. We presented model cuckoos or controls at a pair's own nest (personal information of an intruder) and/or on a neighbouring territory, to which they were attracted by broadcasts of alarm calls (social information). Rejection of an experimental egg was stimulated only when hosts were alerted by both social and personal information of cuckoos. However, pairs that rejected eggs were not more likely to mob a cuckoo. Therefore, while hosts can assess risk from the sight of a cuckoo, a cuckoo cannot gauge if her egg will be accepted from host mobbing. Our results reveal how hosts respond rapidly to local variation in parasitism, and why it pays cuckoos to be secretive, both to avoid alerting their targets and to limit the spread of social information in the local host neighbourhood.

Improving Collective Estimations Using Resistance to Social Influence

Groups can make precise collective estimations in cases like the weight of an object or the number of items in a volume. However, in others tasks, for example those requiring memory or mental calculation, subjects often give estimations with large deviations from factual values. Allowing members of the group to communicate their estimations has the additional perverse effect of shifting individual estimations even closer to the biased collective estimation. Here we show that this negative effect of social interactions can be turned into a method to improve collective estimations. We first obtained a statistical model of how humans change their estimation when receiving the estimates made by other individuals. We confirmed using existing experimental data its prediction that individuals use the weighted geometric mean of private and social estimations. We then used this result and the fact that each individual uses a different value of the social weight to devise a method that extracts the subgroups resisting social influence. We found that these subgroups of individuals resisting social influence can make very large improvements in group estimations. This is in contrast to methods using the confidence that each individual declares, for which we find no improvement in group estimations. Also, our proposed method does not need to use historical data to weight individuals by performance. These results show the benefits of using the individual characteristics of the members in a group to better extract collective wisdom.

A Bayesian Approach to Social Structure Uncovers Cryptic Regulation of Group Dynamics in Drosophila melanogaster

Understanding the mechanisms that give rise to social structure is central to predicting the evolutionary and ecological outcomes of social interactions. Modeling this process is challenging, because all individuals simultaneously behave in ways that shape their social environments--a process called social niche construction (SNC). In earlier work, we demonstrated that aggression acts as an SNC trait in fruit flies (Drosophila melanogaster), but the mechanisms of that process remained cryptic. Here, we analyze how individual social group preferences generate overall social structure. We use a combination of agent-based simulation and approximate Bayesian computation to fit models to empirical data. We confirm that genetic variation in aggressive behavior influences social group structure. Furthermore, we find that female decamping due to male behavior may play an underappreciated role in structuring social groups. Male-male aggression may sometimes destabilize groups, but it may also be an SNC behavior for shaping desirable groups for females. Density intensifies female social preferences; thus, the role of female behavior in shaping group structure may become more important at high densities. Our ability to model the ontogeny of group structure demonstrates the utility of the Bayesian model-based approach in social behavioral studies.

Individual-level personality influences social foraging and collective behaviour in wild birds

There is increasing evidence that animal groups can maintain coordinated behaviour and make collective decisions based on simple interaction rules. Effective collective action may be further facilitated by individual variation within groups, particularly through leader–follower polymorphisms. Recent studies have suggested that individual-level personality traits influence the degree to which individuals use social information, are attracted to conspecifics, or act as leaders/followers. However, evidence is equivocal and largely limited to laboratory studies. We use an automated data-collection system to conduct an experiment testing the relationship between personality and collective decision-making in the wild. First, we report that foraging flocks of great tits (Parus major) show strikingly synchronous behaviour. A predictive model of collective decision-making replicates patterns well, suggesting simple interaction rules are sufficient to explain the observed social behaviour. Second, within groups, individuals with more reactive personalities behave more collectively, moving to within-flock areas of higher density. By contrast, proactive individuals tend to move to and feed at spatial periphery of flocks. Finally, comparing alternative simulations of flocking with empirical data, we demonstrate that variation in personality promotes within-patch movement while maintaining group cohesion. Our results illustrate the importance of incorporating individual variability in models of social behaviour.

Bayesian decision making in human collectives with binary choices

Here we focus on the description of the mechanisms behind the process of information aggregation and decision making, a basic step to understand emergent phenomena in society, such as trends, information spreading or the wisdom of crowds. In many situations, agents choose between discrete options. We analyze experimental data on binary opinion choices in humans. The data consists of two separate experiments in which humans answer questions with a binary response, where one is correct and the other is incorrect. The questions are answered without and with information on the answers of some previous participants. We find that a Bayesian approach captures the probability of choosing one of the answers. The influence of peers is uncorrelated with the difficulty of the question. The data is inconsistent with Weber’s law, which states that the probability of choosing an option depends on the proportion of previous answers choosing that option and not on the total number of those answers. Last, the present Bayesian model fits reasonably well to the data as compared to some other previously proposed functions although the latter sometime perform slightly better than the Bayesian model. The asset of the present model is the simplicity and mechanistic explanation of the behavior.

Social information use and the evolution of unresponsiveness in collective systems

Animal groups in nature often display an enhanced collective information-processing capacity. It has been speculated that natural selection will tune this response to be optimal, ensuring that the group is reactive while also being robust to noise. Here, we show that this is unlikely to be the case. By using a simple model of decision-making in a dynamic environment, we find that when individuals behave rationally and are subject to selection based on their accuracy, optimality of collective decision-making is not attained. Instead, individuals overly rely on social information and evolve to be too readily influenced by their neighbours. This is due to a classic evolutionary conflict between individual and collective interest. The result is a sub-optimal system that is poised on the cusp of total unresponsiveness. Individuals in the evolved group exhibit delayed reactions to changes in the environment, before responding with rapid, socially reinforced transitions, reminiscent of familiar human and animal social systems (markets, stampedes, fashions, etc.). Our results demonstrate that behaviour of this type may not be pathological, but instead could represent an evolutionary attractor for such collective systems.

A unifying framework for quantifying the nature of animal interactions

Collective phenomena, whereby agent-agent interactions determine spatial patterns, are ubiquitous in the animal kingdom. On the other hand, movement and space use are also greatly influenced by the interactions between animals and their environment. Despite both types of interaction fundamentally influencing animal behaviour, there has hitherto been no unifying framework for the models proposed in both areas. Here, we construct a general method for inferring population-level spatial patterns from underlying individual movement and interaction processes, a key ingredient in building a statistical mechanics for ecological systems. We show that resource selection functions, as well as several examples of collective motion models, arise as special cases of our framework, thus bringing together resource selection analysis and collective animal behaviour into a single theory. In particular, we focus on combining the various mechanistic models of territorial interactions in the literature with step selection functions, by incorporating interactions into the step selection framework and demonstrating how to derive territorial patterns from the resulting models. We demonstrate the efficacy of our model by application to a population of insectivore birds in the Amazon rainforest.

Fluid forces enhance the performance of an aspirant leader in self-organized living groups

In this paper, the performance of an individual aiming at guiding a self-organized group is numerically investigated. A collective behavioural model is adopted, accounting for the mutual repulsion, attraction and orientation experienced by the individuals. Moreover, these represent a set of solid particles which are supposed to be immersed in a fictitious viscous fluid. In particular, the lattice Boltzmann and Immersed boundary methods are used to predict the fluid dynamics, whereas the effect of the hydrodynamic forces on particles is accounted for by solving the equation of the solid motion through the time discontinuous Galerkin scheme. Numerical simulations are carried out by involving the individuals in a dichotomous process. On the one hand, an aspirant leader (AL) additional individual is added to the system. AL is forced to move along a prescribed direction which intersects the group. On the other hand, these tend to depart from an obstacle represented by a rotating lamina which is placed in the fluid domain. A numerical campaign is carried out by varying the fluid viscosity and, as a consequence, the hydrodynamic field. Moreover, scenarios characterized by different values of the size of the group are investigated. In order to estimate the AL's performance, a proper parameter is introduced, depending on the number of individuals following AL. Present findings show that the sole collective behavioural equations are insufficient to predict the AL's performance, since the motion is drastically affected by the presence of the surrounding fluid. With respect to the existing literature, the proposed numerical model is enriched by accounting for the presence of the encompassing fluid, thus computing the hydrodynamic forces arising when the individuals move.

Symmetry restoring bifurcation in collective decision-making

How social groups and organisms decide between alternative feeding sites or shelters has been extensively studied both experimentally and theoretically. One key result is the existence of a symmetry-breaking bifurcation at a critical system size, where there is a switch from evenly distributed exploitation of all options to a focussed exploitation of just one. Here we present a decision-making model in which symmetry-breaking is followed by a symmetry restoring bifurcation, whereby very large systems return to an even distribution of exploitation amongst options. The model assumes local positive feedback, coupled with a negative feedback regulating the flow toward the feeding sites. We show that the model is consistent with three different strains of the slime mold Physarum polycephalum, choosing between two feeding sites. We argue that this combination of feedbacks could allow collective foraging organisms to react flexibly in a dynamic environment.

Collective foraging in heterogeneous landscapes

Animals foraging alone are hypothesized to optimize the encounter rates with resources through Lévy walks. However, the issue of how the interactions between multiple foragers influence their search efficiency is still not completely understood. To address this, we consider a model to study the optimal strategy for a group of foragers searching for targets distributed heterogeneously. In our model, foragers move on a square lattice containing immobile but regenerative targets. At any instant, a forager is able to detect only those targets that happen to be in the same site. However, we allow the foragers to have information about the state of other foragers. A forager who has not detected any target walks towards the nearest location, where another forager has detected a target, with a probability exp(-αd), where d is the distance between the foragers and α is a parameter characterizing the propensity of the foragers to aggregate. The model reveals that neither overcrowding (α → 0) nor independent searching (α → ∞) is beneficial for the foragers. For a patchy distribution of targets, the efficiency is maximum for intermediate values of α. In addition, in the limit α → 0, the length of the walks can become scale-free.

Collective decision making and social interaction rules in mixed-species flocks of songbirds

Associations in mixed-species foraging groups are common in animals, yet have rarely been explored in the context of collective behaviour. Despite many investigations into the social and ecological conditions under which individuals should form groups, we still know little about the specific behavioural rules that individuals adopt in these contexts, or whether these can be generalized to heterospecifics. Here, we studied collective behaviour in flocks in a community of five species of woodland passerine birds. We adopted an automated data collection protocol, involving visits by RFID-tagged birds to feeding stations equipped with antennae, over two winters, recording 91 576 feeding events by 1904 individuals. We demonstrated highly synchronized feeding behaviour within patches, with birds moving towards areas of the patch with the largest proportion of the flock. Using a model of collective decision making, we then explored the underlying decision rule birds may be using when foraging in mixed-species flocks. The model tested whether birds used a different decision rule for conspecifics and heterospecifics, and whether the rules used by individuals of different species varied. We found that species differed in their response to the distribution of conspecifics and heterospecifics across foraging patches. However, simulating decisions using the different rules, which reproduced our data well, suggested that the outcome of using different decision rules by each species resulted in qualitatively similar overall patterns of movement. It is possible that the decision rules each species uses may be adjusted to variation in mean species abundance in order for individuals to maintain the same overall flock-level response. This is likely to be important for maintaining coordinated behaviour across species, and to result in quick and adaptive flock responses to food resources that are patchily distributed in space and time.

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We investigate the movement decisions by PIT-tagged birds in mixed-species flocks.

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Individuals had a strong tendency to move towards others when foraging in patches.

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We fit a model to infer decision-making rules used by birds in foraging flocks.

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Birds used rules adapted to the abundance of conspecifics and heterospecifics.

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A simple rule of attraction may be a flexible response to ecological conditions.