Estimation of vaccine efficacy and critical vaccination coverage in partially observed outbreaks

Estimation of the infection attack rate of mumps in an outbreak among college students using paired serology

Mumps virus is a highly transmissible pathogen that is effectively controlled in countries with high vaccination coverage. Nevertheless, outbreaks have occurred worldwide over the past decades in vaccinated populations. Here we analyse an outbreak of mumps virus genotype G among college students in the Netherlands over the period 2009-2012 using paired serological data. To identify infections in the presence of preexisting antibodies we compared mumps specific serum IgG concentrations in two consecutive samples (n=746), whereby the first sample was taken when students started their study prior to the outbreaks, and the second sample was taken 2-5 years later. We fit a binary mixture model to the data. The two mixing distributions represent uninfected and infected classes. Throughout we assume that the infection probability increases with the ratio of antibody concentrations of the second to first sample. The estimated infection attack rate in this study is higher than reported earlier (0.095 versus 0.042). The analyses yield probabilistic classifications of participants, which are mostly quite precise owing to the high intraclass correlation of samples in uninfected participants (0.85, 95%CrI: 0.82-0.87). The estimated probability of infection increases with decreasing antibody concentration in the pre-outbreak sample, such that the probability of infection is 0.12 (95%CrI: 0.10-0.13) for the lowest quartile of the pre-outbreak samples and 0.056 (95%CrI: 0.044-0.068) for the highest quartile. We discuss the implications of these insights for the design of booster vaccination strategies.

Disentangling the causes of mumps reemergence in the United States

Over the past two decades, multiple countries with high vaccine coverage have experienced resurgent outbreaks of mumps. Worryingly, in these countries, a high proportion of cases have been among those who have completed the recommended vaccination schedule, raising alarm about the effectiveness of existing vaccines. Two putative mechanisms of vaccine failure have been proposed as driving observed trends: 1) gradual waning of vaccine-derived immunity (necessitating additional booster doses) and 2) the introduction of novel viral genotypes capable of evading vaccinal immunity. Focusing on the United States, we conduct statistical likelihood-based hypothesis testing using a mechanistic transmission model on age-structured epidemiological, demographic, and vaccine uptake time series data. We find that the data are most consistent with the waning hypothesis and estimate that 32.8% (32%, 33.5%) of individuals lose vaccine-derived immunity by age 18 y. Furthermore, we show using our transmission model how waning vaccine immunity reproduces qualitative and quantitatively consistent features of epidemiological data, namely 1) the shift in mumps incidence toward older individuals, 2) the recent recurrence of mumps outbreaks, and 3) the high proportion of mumps cases among previously vaccinated individuals.

Randomization for the susceptibility effect of an infectious disease intervention

Randomized trials of infectious disease interventions, such as vaccines, often focus on groups of connected or potentially interacting individuals. When the pathogen of interest is transmissible between study subjects, interference may occur: individual infection outcomes may depend on treatments received by others. Epidemiologists have defined the primary parameter of interest-called the "susceptibility effect"-as a contrast in infection risk under treatment versus no treatment, while holding exposure to infectiousness constant. A related quantity-the "direct effect"-is defined as an unconditional contrast between the infection risk under treatment versus no treatment. The purpose of this paper is to show that under a widely recommended randomization design, the direct effect may fail to recover the sign of the true susceptibility effect of the intervention in a randomized trial when outcomes are contagious. The analytical approach uses structural features of infectious disease transmission to define the susceptibility effect. A new probabilistic coupling argument reveals stochastic dominance relations between potential infection outcomes under different treatment allocations. The results suggest that estimating the direct effect under randomization may provide misleading conclusions about the effect of an intervention-such as a vaccine-when outcomes are contagious. Investigators who estimate the direct effect may wrongly conclude an intervention that protects treated individuals from infection is harmful, or that a harmful treatment is beneficial.

Vaccine Coverage and Effectiveness in a School-Based Varicella Outbreak in Jinan Prefecture, Shandong Province

Background: Licheng District of Jinan Prefecture reported a school-based varicella outbreak. We conducted an investigation to analyze the epidemiology and scope of the outbreak, determine varicella vaccine coverage on the school campus, and estimate varicella vaccine effectiveness (VE). Methods: In the epidemiological investigation, we determined the attack rate, the clinical manifestations of varicella cases, and histories of prior varicella disease and varicella vaccination. We tested students for presence of serum IgM antibodies, and we attempted to isolate the varicella virus from vesicular fluid samples. We used chi-square to compare incidences between classes and floors. VE was estimated using a retrospective cohort study. Results: There were 13 varicella cases in the outbreak. All were among fourth grade students - twelve in Class 7 and one in Class 6. The attack rate in the two classrooms was 14.3% (13/91). Clinical symptoms were rash (100%) and fever (46.15%). All cases were reported within one average incubation period, and the epidemic curve suggested common exposure. Six of the 13 cases previously received one dose of varicella vaccine with a median time between vaccination and infection of 9 years; the other seven cases had not been vaccinated. Varicella vaccine coverage with one or more doses was 81.31%; 2-dose coverage was 38.15%. The median age of receipt of dose 1 was 1.18 years, and median age for receiving dose 2 was 5.12 years. One-dose varicella VE was 73.2% (95% confidence interval: 37.0%, 88.6%), and two-dose VE was 100%. Conclusions: Varicella vaccine coverage has been gradually increasing in recent years, as ≥1-dose and 2-dose coverage rates are higher in younger children than older children. High one-dose vaccination coverage limited the outbreak scope and led to the breakthrough cases being mild. Mild cases were difficult to detect in a timely manner. Varicella vaccine was highly effective, with 1-dose VE of 73% nine years after vaccination and 2-dose VE of 100%. We strongly recommended that all school students receive two doses of varicella vaccine.

Migration and outbreaks of vaccine-preventable disease in Europe: a systematic review

Migrant populations are one of several underimmunised groups in the EU or European Economic Area (EU/EEA), yet little is known about their involvement in outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases. This information is vital to develop targeted strategies to improve the health of diverse migrant communities. We did a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42019157473; Jan 1, 2000, to May 22, 2020) adhering to PRISMA guidelines, to identify studies on vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks (measles, mumps, rubella, diphtheria, pertussis, polio, hepatitis A, varicella, Neisseria meningitidis, and Haemophilus influenzae) involving migrants residing in the EU/EEA and Switzerland. We identified 45 studies, reporting on 47 distinct vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks across 13 countries. Most reported outbreaks involving migrants were of measles (n=24; 6496 cases), followed by varicella (n=11; 505 cases), hepatitis A (n=7; 1356 cases), rubella (n=3; 487 cases), and mumps (n=2; 293 cases). 19 (40%) outbreaks, predominantly varicella and measles, were reported in temporary refugee camps or shelters. Of 11 varicella outbreaks, nine (82%) were associated with adult migrants. Half of measles outbreaks (n=11) were associated with migrants from eastern European countries. In conclusion, migrants are involved in vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks in Europe, with adult and child refugees residing in shelters or temporary camps at particular risk, alongside specific nationality groups. Vulnerability varies by disease, setting, and demographics, highlighting the importance of tailoring catch-up vaccination interventions to specific groups in order to meet regional and global vaccination targets as recommended by the new Immunisation Agenda 2030 framework for action. A better understanding of vaccine access and intent in migrant groups and a greater focus on co-designing interventions is urgently needed, with direct implications for COVID-19 vaccine delivery.

Host population dynamics in the face of an evolving pathogen

Interactions between hosts and pathogens are dynamic at both ecological and evolutionary levels. In the resultant 'eco-evolutionary dynamics' ecological and evolutionary processes affect each other. For example, the house finch Haemorhous mexicanus and its recently emerged pathogen, the bacterium Mycoplasma gallisepticum, form a system in which evidence suggests that changes in bacterial virulence through time enhance levels of host immunity in ways that drive the evolution of virulence in an arms race. We use data from two associated citizen science projects in order to determine whether this arms race has had any detectable effect at the population level in the north-eastern United States. We used data from two citizen science projects, based on observations of birds at bird feeders, which provide information on the long-term changes in sizes of aggregations of house finches (host population density), and the probabilities that these house finches have observable disease (disease prevalence). The initial emergence of M. gallisepticum caused a rapid halving of house finch densities; this was then followed by house finch populations remaining stable or slowly declining. Disease prevalence also decreased sharply after the initial emergence and has remained low, although with fluctuations through time. Surprisingly, while initially higher local disease prevalence was found at sites with higher local densities of finches, this relationship has reversed over time. The ability of a vertebrate host species, with a generation time of at least 1 year, to maintain stable populations in the face of evolved higher virulence of a bacterium, with generation times measurable in minutes, suggests that genetic changes in the host are insufficient to explain the observed population-level patterns. We suggest that acquired immunity plays an important role in the observed interaction between house finches and M. gallisepticum.

Pertussis among patients with clinically compatible illness in the Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Pertussis is an acute respiratory tract disease caused by Bordetella pertussis. In 2014, 24.1 million pertussis cases, resulting in 160,700 deaths, were estimated to have occurred worldwide. This study aimed to determine the epidemiology of pertussis among patients with clinically compatible illness who visited selected hospitals in the Amhara Regional State of Ethiopia.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study design was used to review pertussis patients with clinically compatible illness. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from 515 patients from July 2018 through February 2019. DNA was extracted from all nasopharyngeal swabs and samples were analyzed using real-time (RT-) PCR. Crude and adjusted odds ratios with corresponding 95% confidence intervals were estimated using bivariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis, respectively.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of Bordetella species among the study participants was 156 of 515 (30.3%) [95% CI = 26.4-34.6] as determined by Bordetella RT-PCR, including: 65 (41.7%) B. pertussis, 89 (57.1%) indeterminate B. pertussis, one (0.6%) Bordetella holmesii and one (0.6%) Bordetella parapertussis.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found that pertussis is potentially endemic and a common health problem among patients visiting health institutions in the Amhara Regional State of Ethiopia. More data regarding pertussis in Ethiopia could inform development of effective prevention strategies.

Assessment of Pertussis Vaccine Protective Effectiveness in Children in the Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia

Background

Bordetella pertussis is a human pathogen which causes pertussis, or whooping cough. The diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis immunization has significantly reduced the morbidity and mortality of pertussis globally. However, higher prevalence and resurgence of pertussis cases among both vaccinated and unvaccinated people has raised questions on the effectiveness of pertussis vaccine over time. Therefore, the objective of this study was to assess the protective effectiveness of pertussis vaccine in the Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia.

Methods

A nested matched case-control study design approach was used with vaccinated individuals as cases and unvaccinated individuals as controls. The study was conducted from July 2018 to February 2019. Real-time (RT-) PCR assay was done to ascertain the presence of pertussis among clinically suspected patients. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were computed to estimate the crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs), respectively. Vaccine effectiveness was calculated as (1 − OR) × 100. Adjusted OR with 95% CI and a P value <0.05 were used to assess statistical significance.

Results

A total of 112 vaccinated and 223 unvaccinated controls were enrolled for the study. Of the total participants, 173/335 (51.6%) were males. The prevalence of pertussis among vaccinated was 35/112 (31.3%), whereas it was 84/223 (37.7%) among the control group. The adjusted matched vaccine protective effectiveness against B. pertussis infection following three doses of whole-cell vaccine was 25% among children aged between 6 and 9 years. Adjusted estimates of vaccine protective effectiveness for participants who had complete vaccination, stratified by time since last vaccination, were 50% at 6 years, 34% at 7 years, and 2% at 8–9 years since last vaccination.

Conclusion

Despite the availability and good coverage of childhood vaccination, the effectiveness of pertussis vaccine was found to be low in the Amhara region, Ethiopia. Moreover, we observed declining trends in the protective effectiveness of the vaccine after 6 years of vaccination. Thus, by considering the waning nature of immune response which is induced by whole-cell vaccine during early life, booster dose is highly recommended to optimize pertussis prevention and control strategies.

Case-based surveillance of measles in Sicily during 2012-2017: The changing molecular epidemiology and implications for vaccine strategies

Following the indication of the World Health Organization, a national plan for the elimination of measles was approved in Italy and this included the improvement of the molecular surveillance of measles viruses and the interruption of indigenous transmission of the disease. Nevertheless, large outbreaks continue to occur in almost all regions of the country, including Sicily. Here we describe the epidemiology and molecular dynamics of measles viruses as a result of the measles surveillance activity carried out by the "Reference Laboratory for Measles and Rubella" in Sicily over a 5-year period. Biological samples of 259 suspected measles cases were tested for viral RNA detection and a total of 223 (86.1%) were classified as laboratory confirmed. The median age of confirmed measles cases was 21.0 years and about half of them were adults aged 19 years and older. Overall, one-third of the patients showed clinical complications and these latter were more common among adults than children (44.9% vs. 25.7%). The vast majority of measles cases were unvaccinated (94.2%, n = 210). The phylogenetic analysis of 221 measles virus nucleotide sequences revealed sporadic detections of genotypes D4 and H1, while endemic circulation of genotypes D8 and B3 was documented. Genotype D8 was associated with epidemics occurred between 2013 and 2016, whereas genotype B3 was more recently introduced into Sicily characterizing the current measles outbreak. The results of this study confirm the autochthonous co-circulation of viral variants belonging to different genotypes during the study period, and emphasizes the need of measles surveillance programmes in order to investigate the viral dynamics, the pathways of disease transmission, and to eventually adapt the development of successfull vaccine formulations.

Vaccine Effects on Heterogeneity in Susceptibility and Implications for Population Health Management

Heterogeneity in host susceptibility is a key determinant of infectious disease dynamics but is rarely accounted for in assessment of disease control measures. Understanding how susceptibility is distributed in populations, and how control measures change this distribution, is integral to predicting the course of epidemics with and without interventions. Using multiple experimental and modeling approaches, we show that rainbow trout have relatively homogeneous susceptibility to infection with infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus and that vaccination increases heterogeneity in susceptibility in a nearly all-or-nothing fashion. In a simple transmission model with an R₀ of 2, the highly heterogeneous vaccine protection would cause a 35 percentage-point reduction in outbreak size over an intervention inducing homogenous protection at the same mean level. More broadly, these findings provide validation of methodology that can help to reduce biases in predictions of vaccine impact in natural settings and provide insight into how vaccination shapes population susceptibility.

Differences among individuals influence transmission and spread of infectious diseases as well as the effectiveness of control measures. Control measures, such as vaccines, may provide leaky protection, protecting all hosts to an identical degree, or all-or-nothing protection, protecting some hosts completely while leaving others completely unprotected. This distinction can have a dramatic influence on disease dynamics, yet this distribution of protection is frequently unaccounted for in epidemiological models and estimates of vaccine efficacy. Here, we apply new methodology to experimentally examine host heterogeneity in susceptibility and mode of vaccine action as distinct components influencing disease outcome. Through multiple experiments and new modeling approaches, we show that the distribution of vaccine effects can be robustly estimated. These results offer new experimental and inferential methodology that can improve predictions of vaccine effectiveness and have broad applicability to human, wildlife, and ecosystem health.

Waning Immunity Is Associated with Periodic Large Outbreaks of Mumps: A Mathematical Modeling Study of Scottish Data

Vaccination programs for childhood diseases, such as measles, mumps and rubella have greatly contributed to decreasing the incidence and impact of those diseases. Nonetheless, despite long vaccination programmes across the world, mumps has not yet been eradicated in those countries: indeed, large outbreaks continue. For example, in Scotland large outbreaks occurred in 2004, 2005, and 2015, despite introducing the MMR (Measles-Mumps-Rubella) vaccine more than 20 years ago. There are indications that this vaccine-preventable disease is re-emerging in highly vaccinated populations. Here we investigate whether the resurgence of mumps is due to waning immunity, and further, could a booster dose be the solution to eradicate mumps or would it just extend the period of waning immunity? Using mathematical modeling we enhance a seasonally-structured disease model with four scenarios: no vaccination, vaccinated individuals protected for life, vaccinated individuals at risk of waning immunity, and introduction of measures to increase immunity (a third dose, or a better vaccine). The model is parameterised from observed clinical data in Scotland 2004–2015 and the literature. The results of the four scenarios are compared with observed clinical data 2004–2016. While the force of infection is relatively sensitive to the duration of immunity and the number of boosters undertaken, we conclude that periodic large outbreaks of mumps will be sustained for all except the second scenario. This suggests that the current protocol of two vaccinations is optimal in the sense that while there are periodic large outbreaks, the severity of cases in vaccinated individuals is less than in unvaccinated individuals, and the size of the outbreaks does not decrease sufficiently with a third booster to make economic sense. This recommendation relies on continuous efforts to maintain high levels of vaccination uptake.

Comparison of neutralizing antibody titers against outbreak-associated measles genotypes (D4, H1 and B3) in Iran

Despite the accessibility of a promising vaccine, outbreaks of the measles virus (MV) take place even in well-vaccinated populations. D4, H1 and B3 genotypes have been detected regularly in different regions of Iran. These observations highlight the necessity of evaluating the protective efficacy of the vaccine against currently circulating MV genotypes during the elimination phase. A focus reduction neutralization test has been developed to measure the neutralizing antibodies against different genotypes of MV, such as H1, D4, B3 and vaccine strain (A), in children after second doses of measles vaccine. The geometric mean titer (GMT) rates of the sera against D4, H1, B3 and A genotypes were 95.9, 90.5, 32.0 and 76.1, respectively. Low GMTs of antibody against the B3 genotype compared with the other genotypes were indicated. Based on the current study results, the MV antibody titers in the sera of vaccinated cases are sufficient to neutralize all circulating genotypes in Iran; however, neutralizing antibody titers were lower for the B3 genotype than for the H1, D4 and A genotypes. The heterogeneous nature of MV, for instance the nucleotide sequence diversity between different strains, necessitates the evaluation of the protective efficacy of the vaccine against measles B3 genotype in countries where this virus has been the most commonly identified circulating genotype.

The etiology of Rubella IgM positivity in patients with rubella-like illness in Iran from 2011 to 2013

Rubella is a mild self-limiting contagious viral disease caused by the rubella virus (RV). Although symptoms are often mild, the concern is centralized around the possible effect on a fetus growth and development in case of primary infection during early months of pregnancy. Recently acquired rubella is commonly confirmed by RV-specific IgM antibody detection in the serum. However, rubella primary infection is not always the only cause of IgM positivity. Other possible causes of rubella IgM positivity may include IgM persistence following vaccination or naturally acquired infection or even re-infection. Moreover, nonspecific IgM reactivity can cause false-positive results. There are few articles to differentiate the aetiology of rash in rubella-like illnesses. However, limited studies have been conducted on clarifying the source of IgM positivity in these cases. This article reports the study of 10,896 clinical cases demonstrating rubella-like illness between 2011 and 2013 in Iran. The rate of IgM positivity among these cases was 0.52% (57 cases). As predicted based on the high coverage of vaccination in Iran fewer than 16% of cases with ELISA IgM positive result, were due to current rubella primary infections. The greater part of the positive IgM reactions occurred in cross reactivity with other viruses (31.6%) or in prolonged IgM response post vaccination (24.6%). This research confirmed that the positive result of rubella IgM assay in vaccinated individuals is mainly caused by prolonged IgM production, rubella re-infection, and false positivity due to infection with other viruses, rather than the rubella primary infection itself.