Mechanistic framework predicts drug-class specific utility of antiretrovirals for HIV prophylaxis

Model-based predictions of protective HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis adherence levels in cisgender women

Most human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections occur in cisgender women in resource-limited settings. In women, self-protection with emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate pre-exposure prophylaxis (FTC/TDF-PrEP) constitutes a major pillar of HIV prevention. However, clinical trials in women had inconsistent outcomes, sparking uncertainty about adherence requirements and reluctance in evaluating on-demand regimens. We analyzed data from published FTC/TDF-PrEP trials to establish efficacy ranges in cisgender women. In a 'bottom-up' approach, we modeled hypotheses in the context of risk-group-specific, adherence-efficacy profiles and challenged those hypotheses with clinical data. We found that different clinical outcomes were related to the proportion of women taking the product, allowing coherent interpretation of the data. Our analysis showed that 90% protection was achieved when women took some product. We found that hypotheses of putative male/female differences were either not impactful or statistically inconsistent with clinical data. We propose that differing clinical outcomes could arise from pill-taking behavior rather than biological factors driving specific adherence requirements in cisgender women.

Modeling Antiretrovial Treatment to Mitigate HIV in the Brain: Impact of the Blood-Brain Barrier

Current research in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) focuses on eradicating virus reservoirs that prevent or dampen the effectiveness of antiretroviral treatment (ART). One such reservoir, the brain, reduces treatment efficacy via the blood-brain barrier (BBB), causing an obstacle to drug penetration into the brain. In this study, we develop a mathematical model to examine the impact of the BBB on ART effectiveness for mitigating brain HIV. A thorough analysis of the model allowed us to fully characterize the global threshold dynamics with the viral clearance and persistence in the brain for the basic reproduction number less than unity and greater than unity, respectively. Our model showed that the BBB has a significant role in inhibiting the effect of ART within the brain despite the effective viral load suppression in the plasma. The level of impact, however, depends on factors such as the CNS Penetration Effectiveness (CPE) score, the slope of the drug dose-response curves, the ART initiation timing, and the number of drugs in the ART protocol. These results suggest that reducing the plasma viral load to undetectable levels due to some drug regimen may not necessarily indicate undetectable levels of HIV in the brain. Thus, the effect of the BBB on viral suppression in the brain must be considered for developing proper treatment protocols against HIV infection.

Synthesis of protective oral PrEP adherence levels in cisgender women using convergent clinical- and bottom-up modeling

Globally, most HIV infections occur in heterosexual women in resource-limited settings. In these settings, female self-protection with generic emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate pre-exposure prophylaxis (FTC/TDF-PrEP) may constitute a major pillar of the HIV prevention portfolio. However, clinical trials in women had inconsistent outcomes, sparking uncertainty regarding risk-group specific adherence requirements and causing reluctance in testing and recommending on-demand regimen in women. We analyzed all FTC/TDF-PrEP trials to establish PrEP efficacy ranges in women. In a 'bottom-up' approach, we modeled hypotheses corroborating risk-group specific adherence-efficacy profiles. Finally, we used the clinical efficacy ranges to (in-)validate hypotheses. We found that different clinical outcomes could solely be explained by the proportion of enrolled participants not taking the product, allowing, for the first time, to unify clinical observations. This analysis showed that 90% protection was achieved, when women took some of the product. Using 'bottom-up' modelling, we found that hypotheses of putative male/female differences were either irrelevant, or statistically inconsistent with clinical data. Furthermore, our multiscale modelling indicated that 90% protection was achieved if oral FTC/TDF was taken at least twice weekly.

Validation and clinical application of a method to quantify efavirenz in cervicovaginal secretions from flocked swabs using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry

Background : A liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry method to quantify drugs in dried cervicovaginal secretions from flocked swabs was developed and validated using the antiretroviral efavirenz as an example. Methods: Cervicovaginal swabs (CVS) were prepared by submerging flocked swabs in efavirenz-spiked plasma matrix. Time to full saturation, weight uniformity, recovery and room temperature stability were evaluated. Chromatographic separation was on a reverse-phase C18 column by gradient elution using 1mM ammonium acetate in water/acetonitrile at 400 µL/min. Detection and quantification were on a TSQ Quantum Access triple quadrupole mass spectrometer operated in negative ionisation mode. The method was used to quantify efavirenz in CVS samples from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive women in the VADICT study (NCT03284645). A total of 98 samples (35 paired intensive CVS and DBS pharmacokinetic samples, 14 paired sparse CVS and DBS samples) from 19 participants were available for this analysis. Results: Swabs were fully saturated within 15 seconds, absorbing 128 µL of plasma matrix with coefficient of variation (%CV) below 1.3%. The method was linear with a weighting factor (1/X) in the range of 25-10000 ng/mL with inter- and intra-day precision (% CV) of 7.69-14.9%, and accuracy (% bias) of 99.1-105.3%. Mean recovery of efavirenz from CVS was 83.8% (%CV, 11.2) with no significant matrix effect. Efavirenz remained stable in swabs for at least 35 days after drying and storage at room temperature. Median (range) CVS efavirenz AUC 0-24h was 16370 ng*h/mL (5803-22088), C max was 1618 ng/mL (610-2438) at a T max of 8.0 h (8.0-12), and C min was 399 ng/mL (110-981). Efavirenz CVS:plasma AUC 0-24h ratio was 0.41 (0.20-0.59). Conclusions: Further application of this method will improve our understanding of the pharmacology of other therapeutics in the female genital tract, including in low- and middle-income countries.

Validation and clinical application of a method to quantify efavirenz in cervicovaginal secretions from flocked swabs using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry

Background : A liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry method to quantify drugs in dried cervicovaginal secretions from flocked swabs was developed and validated using the antiretroviral efavirenz as an example. Methods: Cervicovaginal swabs (CVS) were prepared by submerging flocked swabs in efavirenz-spiked plasma matrix. Time to full saturation, weight uniformity, recovery and room temperature stability were evaluated. Chromatographic separation was on a reverse-phase C18 column by gradient elution using 1mM ammonium acetate in water/acetonitrile at 400 µL/min. Detection and quantification were on a TSQ Quantum Access triple quadrupole mass spectrometer operated in negative ionisation mode. The method was used to quantify efavirenz in CVS samples from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive women in the VADICT study (NCT03284645). A total of 98 samples (35 paired intensive CVS and DBS pharmacokinetic samples, 14 paired sparse CVS and DBS samples) from 19 participants were available for this analysis. Results: Swabs were fully saturated within 15 seconds, absorbing 128 µL of plasma matrix with coefficient of variation (%CV) below 1.3%. The method was linear with a weighting factor (1/X) in the range of 25-10000 ng/mL with inter- and intra-day precision (% CV) of 7.69-14.9%, and accuracy (% bias) of 99.1-105.3%. Mean recovery of efavirenz from CVS was 83.8% (%CV, 11.2) with no significant matrix effect. Efavirenz remained stable in swabs for at least 35 days after drying and storage at room temperature. Median (range) CVS efavirenz AUC 0-24h was 16370 ng*h/mL (5803-22088), C max was 1618 ng/mL (610-2438) at a T max of 8.0 h (8.0-12), and C min was 399 ng/mL (110-981). Efavirenz CVS:plasma AUC 0-24h ratio was 0.41 (0.20-0.59). Conclusions: Further application of this method will improve our understanding of the pharmacology of other therapeutics in the female genital tract, including in low- and middle-income countries.

Numerical approaches for the rapid analysis of prophylactic efficacy against HIV with arbitrary drug-dosing schemes

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an important pillar to prevent HIV transmission. Because of experimental and clinical shortcomings, mathematical models that integrate pharmacological, viral- and host factors are frequently used to quantify clinical efficacy of PrEP. Stochastic simulations of these models provides sample statistics from which the clinical efficacy is approximated. However, many stochastic simulations are needed to reduce the associated sampling error. To remedy the shortcomings of stochastic simulation, we developed a numerical method that allows predicting the efficacy of arbitrary prophylactic regimen directly from a viral dynamics model, without sampling. We apply the method to various hypothetical dolutegravir (DTG) prophylaxis scenarios. The approach is verified against state-of-the-art stochastic simulation. While the method is more accurate than stochastic simulation, it is superior in terms of computational performance. For example, a continuous 6-month prophylactic profile is computed within a few seconds on a laptop computer. The method’s computational performance, therefore, substantially expands the horizon of feasible analysis in the context of PrEP, and possibly other applications.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an important tool to prevent HIV transmission. However, experimental identification of parameters that determine prophylactic efficacy is extremely difficult. Clues about these parameters could prove essential for the design of next-generation PrEP compounds. Integrative mathematical models can fill this void: Based on stochastic simulation, a sample statistic can be generated, from which the prophylactic efficacy is estimated. However, for this sample statistic to be accurate, many simulations need to be performed.

Here, we introduce a numerical method to directly compute the prophylactic efficacy from a viral dynamics model, without the need for sampling. Based on several examples with dolutegravir (DTG) -based short- and long-term PrEP, as well as post-exposure prophylaxis we demonstrate the correctness of the new method and its outstanding computational performance. Due to the method’s computational performance, a number of analyses, including formal sensitivity analysis, are becoming feasible with the proposed method.

Validation and clinical application of a method to quantify efavirenz in cervicovaginal secretions from flocked swabs using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry

Background: A liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry method to quantify drugs in dried cervicovaginal secretions from flocked swabs was developed and validated using the antiretroviral efavirenz as an example. Methods: Cervicovaginal swabs (CVS) were prepared by submerging flocked swabs in efavirenz-spiked matrix. Time to full saturation, weight uniformity, recovery and room temperature stability were evaluated. Chromatographic separation was on a reverse-phase C18 column by gradient elution using 1mM ammonium acetate in water/acetonitrile at 400 µL/min. Detection and quantification were on a TSQ Quantum Access triple quadrupole mass spectrometer operated in negative ionisation mode. The method was used to quantify efavirenz in CVS samples from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive women in the VADICT study (NCT03284645). A total of 98 samples (35 paired intensive CVS and DBS samples, 14 paired sparse CVS and DBS samples) from 19 participants were available for this analysis. Results: Swabs were fully saturated within 15 seconds, absorbing 128 µL of matrix with coefficient of variation (%CV) below 1.3%. The method was linear with a weighting factor (1/X) in the range of 25-10000 ng/mL with inter- and intra-day precision (% CV) of 7.69-14.9%, and accuracy (% bias) of 99.1-105.3%. Mean recovery of efavirenz from CVS was 83.8% (%CV, 11.2) with no significant matrix effect. Efavirenz remained stable in swabs for at least 35 days after drying and storage at room temperature. Median (range) CVS efavirenz AUC0-24h was 16370 ng*h/mL (5803-22088), Cmax was 1618 ng/mL (610-2438) at a Tmax of 8.0 h (8.0-12), and Cmin was 399 ng/mL (110-981). Efavirenz CVS:plasma AUC0-24 ratio was 0.41 (0.20-0.59). Conclusions: Further application of this method will improve our understanding of the pharmacology of other therapeutics in the female genital tract, including in low- and middle-income countries.

Success of prophylactic antiviral therapy for SARS-CoV-2: Predicted critical efficacies and impact of different drug-specific mechanisms of action

Repurposed drugs that are safe and immediately available constitute a first line of defense against new viral infections. Despite limited antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2, several drugs are being tested as medication or as prophylaxis to prevent infection. Using a stochastic model of early phase infection, we evaluate the success of prophylactic treatment with different drug types to prevent viral infection. We find that there exists a critical efficacy that a treatment must reach in order to block viral establishment. Treatment by a combination of drugs reduces the critical efficacy, most effectively by the combination of a drug blocking viral entry into cells and a drug increasing viral clearance. Below the critical efficacy, the risk of infection can nonetheless be reduced. Drugs blocking viral entry into cells or enhancing viral clearance reduce the risk of infection more than drugs that reduce viral production in infected cells. The larger the initial inoculum of infectious virus, the less likely is prevention of an infection. In our model, we find that as long as the viral inoculum is smaller than 10 infectious virus particles, viral infection can be prevented almost certainly with drugs of 90% efficacy (or more). Even when a viral infection cannot be prevented, antivirals delay the time to detectable viral loads. The largest delay of viral infection is achieved by drugs reducing viral production in infected cells. A delay of virus infection flattens the within-host viral dynamic curve, possibly reducing transmission and symptom severity. Thus, antiviral prophylaxis, even with reduced efficacy, could be efficiently used to prevent or alleviate infection in people at high risk.

Efavirenz nanomicelles loaded vaginal film (EZ film) for preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) of HIV

Preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) using oral or vaginal microbicide is an emerging and effective strategy to prevent HIV transmission. Vaginal film is becoming more acceptable and a convenient dosage form compared to cream, gel and suppository. Extremely poor aqueous solubility of efavirenz (EFV) limits its use as vaginal microbicide. The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a monomeric surfactant free, rapidly soluble vaginal film of EFV (EZ film). EZ film was prepared using a tetrafunctional block polymer (Tetronic 1107), carrageenan and polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) by solvent evaporation method. First, different solubilizers were screened for EFV solubility, in vitro cytotoxicity and cell membrane integrity assay on HeLa cells. Optimized film was characterized for solid state, mechanical strength, epithelial integrity, in vitro drug release in simulated vaginal fluid (SVF), simulated seminal fluid (SSF) and in vitro anti-HIV activity. Optimized EZ film showed a particle size of 48 ± 3.8 nm with PDI of 0.299. Differential scanning colorimetry (DSC) thermogram suggested the complete amorphization of EFV within the film. EZ film rapidly disintegrated (30 s) with complete release of EFV in SVF and SSF. The film was found to be non-toxic to HeLa cells and showed similar anti-HIV-1 activity as that of EFV in DMSO. EZ film did not show any significant change in the TEER value in HEC 1A cell line. Hence, the findings from the current study strongly suggest that the EZ film could be a cost-effective and convenient dosage form for PrEP of HIV.

Mathematical modeling to reveal breakthrough mechanisms in the HIV Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials

The ongoing Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials will uncover whether passive infusion of the broadly neutralizing antibody (bNAb) VRC01 can protect against HIV acquisition. Previous statistical simulations indicate these trials may be partially protective. In that case, it will be crucial to identify the mechanism of breakthrough infections. To that end, we developed a mathematical modeling framework to simulate the AMP trials and infer the breakthrough mechanisms using measurable trial outcomes. This framework combines viral dynamics with antibody pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, and will be generally applicable to forthcoming bNAb prevention trials. We fit our model to human viral load data (RV217). Then, we incorporated VRC01 neutralization using serum pharmacokinetics (HVTN 104) and in vitro pharmacodynamics (LANL CATNAP database). We systematically explored trial outcomes by reducing in vivo potency and varying the distribution of sensitivity to VRC01 in circulating strains. We found trial outcomes could be used in a clinical trial regression model (CTRM) to reveal whether partially protective trials were caused by large fractions of VRC01-resistant (IC50>50 μg/mL) circulating strains or rather a global reduction in VRC01 potency against all strains. The former mechanism suggests the need to enhance neutralizing antibody breadth; the latter suggests the need to enhance VRC01 delivery and/or in vivo binding. We will apply the clinical trial regression model to data from the completed trials to help optimize future approaches for passive delivery of anti-HIV neutralizing antibodies.

Infusions of broadly neutralizing antibodies are currently being tested as a novel HIV prevention modality. To help interpret the results of these antibody mediated prevention (AMP) studies we developed a mathematical modeling framework. The approach combines antibody potency and drug levels with models of HIV viral dynamics, which will be generally applicable to future studies. Through simulating these clinical trials, we found trial outcomes can be used in combination to infer whether breakthrough infections are caused by large fractions of antibody-resistant circulating strains or some reduction in potency against all strains. This distinction helps to focus future trials on enhancing neutralizing antibody breadth or antibody delivery and/or in vivo binding.

Modeling HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has emerged as a promising strategy for preventing the transmission of HIV. Although only one formulation is currently approved for PrEP, research into both new compounds and new delivery systems for PrEP regimens offer intriguing challenges from the perspective of pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic modeling. This review aims to provide an overview the current modeling landscape for HIV PrEP, focused on PK/PD and QSP models relating to antiretroviral agents. Both current PrEP treatments and new compounds that show promise as PrEP agents are highlighted, as well as models of uncommon administration routes, predictions based on models of mechanism of action and viral dynamics, and issues related to adherence to therapy. The spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains one of the foremost global health concerns. In the absence of a vaccine, other prophylactic strategies have been developed to prevent HIV transmission. One approach, known as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), allows HIV-negative individuals who are at high risk of exposure to the virus, be it through an HIV-positive sexual partner or through the shared use of drug injection equipment, to substantially reduce the risk of developing an HIV infection. PrEP is a relatively recent approach to combating the HIV epidemic, with the only currently approved treatment being Truvada, a daily oral antiretroviral (ARV) therapy initially indicated in the treatment of active HIV-1 infections, but approved for HIV PrEP in 2012. Although PrEP therapy has consistently demonstrated high efficacy in preventing HIV infection, this efficacy is dependent on patient adherence to the prescribed treatment regimen. This can present a significant problem in low- and middle-income countries, which may lack the infrastructure to provide sufficient access to PrEP medication to maintain daily dosing regimens. Furthermore, while the conventional approach has generally been to advocate for continuous administration akin to regimens used for viral suppression in infected patients, there has been some discussion of whether a better treatment paradigm might be to push for PrEP therapy primarily during those known periods of heightened exposure risk, while relying on post-exposure prophylaxis regimens to prevent infection after unanticipated exposures during low-risk periods. These considerations have led to a push for the development of long-duration and on-demand PrEP formulations, including subdermal and subcutaneous implants, slow-release intramuscular depot injections, vaginal and rectal antimicrobial gels, and intravaginal rings and dissolving films. PrEP therapy is a quickly evolving field, with a variety of antiretroviral compounds and formulations under investigation. This review aims to report on notable drugs and formulations from a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modeling perspective. Given the nature of PrEP as a preventive therapy designed for long-term use, clinical trials for PrEP therapies can last for months or even years, particularly in the case of long-duration formulations. Furthermore, in contrast to antiretroviral trials in infected patients, pharmacodynamic endpoints in PrEP therapies are difficult to quantify, as the primary endpoint for efficacy is generally the rate of seroconversion. Computational modeling approaches offer flexible and powerful tools to provide insight into drug behavior in clinical settings, and can ultimately reduce the time, expense, and patient burden incurred in the development of PrEP therapies.

The Utility of Efavirenz-based Prophylaxis Against HIV Infection. A Systems Pharmacological Analysis

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is considered one of the five “pillars” by UNAIDS to reduce HIV transmission. Moreover, it is a tool for female self-protection against HIV, making it highly relevant to sub-Saharan regions, where women have the highest infection burden. To date, Truvada is the only medication for PrEP. However, the cost of Truvada limits its uptake in resource-constrained countries. Similarly, several currently investigated, patent-protected compounds may be unaffordable in these regions. We set out to explore the potential of the patent-expired antiviral efavirenz (EFV) as a cost-efficient PrEP alternative. A population pharmacokinetic model utilizing data from the ENCORE1 study was developed. The model was refined for metabolic autoinduction. We then explored EFV cellular uptake mechanisms, finding that it is largely determined by plasma protein binding. Next, we predicted the prophylactic efficacy of various EFV dosing schemes after exposure to HIV using a stochastic simulation framework. We predicted that plasma concentrations of 11, 36, 1287 and 1486ng/mL prevent 90% sexual transmissions with wild type and Y181C, K103N and G190S mutants, respectively. Trough concentrations achieved after 600 mg once daily dosing (median: 2017 ng/mL, 95% CI:445–9830) and after reduced dose (400 mg) efavirenz (median: 1349ng/mL, 95% CI: 297–6553) provided complete protection against wild-type virus and the Y181C mutant, and median trough concentrations provided about 90% protection against the K103N and G190S mutants. As reduced dose EFV has a lower toxicity profile, we predicted the reduction in HIV infection when 400 mg EFV-PrEP was poorly adhered to, when it was taken “on demand” and as post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP). Once daily EFV-PrEP provided 99% protection against wild-type virus, if ≥50% of doses were taken. PrEP “on demand” provided complete protection against wild-type virus and prevented ≥81% infections in the mutants. PEP could prevent >98% infection with susceptible virus when initiated within 24 h after virus exposure and continued for at least 9 days. We predict that 400 mg oral EFV may provide superior protection against wild-type HIV. However, further studies are warranted to evaluate EFV as a cost-efficient alternative to Truvada. Predicted prophylactic concentrations may guide release kinetics of EFV long-acting formulations for clinical trial design.