Predictions of time to HIV viral rebound following ART suspension that incorporate personal biomarkers

Comparative analysis of within-host dynamics of acute infection and viral rebound dynamics in postnatally SHIV-infected ART-treated infant rhesus macaques

Viral dynamics of acute HIV infection and HIV rebound following suspension of antiretroviral therapy may be qualitatively similar but must differ given, for one, development of adaptive immune responses. Understanding the differences of acute HIV infection and viral rebound dynamics in pediatric populations may provide insights into the mechanisms of viral control with potential implications for vaccine design and the development of effective targeted therapeutics for infants and children. Mathematical models have been a crucial tool to elucidate the complex processes driving viral infections within the host. Traditionally, acute HIV infection has been modeled with a standard model of viral dynamics initially developed to explore viral decay during treatment, while viral rebound has necessitated extensions of that standard model to incorporate explicit immune responses. Previous efforts to fit these models to viral load data have underscored differences between the two infection stages, such as increased viral clearance rate and increased death rate of infected cells during rebound. However, these findings have been predicated on viral load measurements from disparate adult individuals. In this study, we aim to bridge this gap, in infants, by comparing the dynamics of acute infection and viral rebound within the same individuals by leveraging an infant nonhuman primate Simian/Human Immunodeficiency Virus (SHIV) infection model. Ten infant Rhesus macaques (RMs) orally challenged with SHIV.C.CH505 375H dCT and given ART at 8 weeks post-infection. These infants were then monitored for up to 60 months post-infection with serial viral load and immune measurements. We use the HIV standard viral dynamics model fitted to viral load measurements in a nonlinear mixed effects framework. We find that the primary difference between acute infection and rebound is the increased death rate of infected cells during rebound. We use these findings to generate hypotheses on the effects of adaptive immune responses. We leverage these findings to formulate hypotheses to elucidate the observed results and provide arguments to support the notion that delayed viral rebound is characterized by a stronger CD8+ T cell response.

Understanding early HIV-1 rebound dynamics following antiretroviral therapy interruption: The importance of effector cell expansion

Most people living with HIV-1 experience rapid viral rebound once antiretroviral therapy is interrupted; however, a small fraction remain in viral remission for an extended duration. Understanding the factors that determine whether viral rebound is likely after treatment interruption can enable the development of optimal treatment regimens and therapeutic interventions to potentially achieve a functional cure for HIV-1. We built upon the theoretical framework proposed by Conway and Perelson to construct dynamic models of virus-immune interactions to study factors that influence viral rebound dynamics. We evaluated these models using viral load data from 24 individuals following antiretroviral therapy interruption. The best-performing model accurately captures the heterogeneity of viral dynamics and highlights the importance of the effector cell expansion rate. Our results show that post-treatment controllers and non-controllers can be distinguished based on the effector cell expansion rate in our models. Furthermore, these results demonstrate the potential of using dynamic models incorporating an effector cell response to understand early viral rebound dynamics post-antiretroviral therapy interruption.

Viral rebound occurrence immediately after drug discontinuation involving neither drug resistance nor latent reservoir

Some viruses exhibit "rebound" when the administration of antiviral drugs is discontinued. Viral rebound caused by resistance mutations or latent reservoirs has been studied mathematically. In this study, we investigated the viral rebound due to other causes. Since immunity is weaker during antiviral treatment than without the treatment, drug discontinuation may lead to an increase in the viral load. We analyzed the dynamics of the number of virus-infected cells, cytotoxic T lymphocytes, and memory cells and identified the conditions under which the viral load increased upon drug discontinuation. If drug is administered for an extended period, a viral rebound occurs when the ratio of viral growth rate in the absence to that in the presence of the antiviral drug exceeds the "rebound threshold." We analyzed how the rebound threshold depended on the patient's conditions and the type of treatment. Mathematical and numerical analyses revealed that rebound after discontinuation was more likely to occur when the drug effectively reduced viral proliferation, drug discontinuation was delayed, and the processes activating immune responses directly were stronger than those occurring indirectly through immune memory formation. We discussed additional reasons for drugs to cause viral rebound more likely.

DAA-mediated HCV cure reduces HIV DNA levels in HCV/HIV coinfected people

IMPORTANCE

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) can control virus replication and prolong the life of people living with HIV (PLWH). However, the virus remains dormant within immune cells in what is called the HIV reservoir. Furthermore, 2.3 million PLWH are also coinfected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and are at risk of developing chronic liver disease and cancer. HCV treatment with direct acting antivirals (DAA) can completely cure the infection in more than 95% of treated individuals and improve their long-term health outcomes. In this study, we investigated how HCV treatment and cure affect the HIV reservoir. We demonstrate the beneficial impact of DAA treatment as it reduces the HIV reservoirs in particular in people infected with HCV before HIV. These results support the need for early ART and DAA treatment in HIV/HCV coinfections.

Assessing the impact of autologous neutralizing antibodies on viral rebound in postnatally SHIV-infected ART-treated infant rhesus macaques

While the benefits of early antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in perinatally infected infants are well documented, early ART initiation is not always possible in postnatal pediatric HIV infections, which account for the majority of pediatric HIV cases worldwide. The timing of onset of ART initiation is likely to affect the size of the latent viral reservoir established, as well as the development of adaptive immune responses, such as the generation of neutralizing antibody responses against the virus. How these parameters impact the ability of infants to control viremia and the time to viral rebound after ART interruption is unclear. To gain insight into the dynamics, we utilized mathematical models to investigate the effect of time of ART initiation via latent reservoir size and autologous virus neutralizing antibody responses in delaying viral rebound when treatment is interrupted. We used an infant nonhuman primate Simian/Human Immunodeficiency Virus (SHIV) infection model that mimics breast milk HIV transmission in human infants. Infant Rhesus macaques (RMs) were orally challenged with SHIV.C.CH505 375H dCT and either given ART at 4-7 days post-infection (early ART condition), at 2 weeks post-infection (intermediate ART condition), or at 8 weeks post-infection (late ART condition). These infants were then monitored for up to 60 months post-infection with serial viral load and immune measurements. We develop a stochastic mathematical model to investigate the joint effect of latent reservoir size, the autologous neutralizing antibody potency, and CD4+ T cell levels on the time to viral rebound and control of post-rebound viral loads. We find that the latent reservoir size is an important determinant in explaining time to viral rebound by affecting the growth rate of the virus. The presence of neutralizing antibodies also can delay rebound, but we find this effect for high potency antibody responses only.

Plasma proteomic profiling identifies CD33 as a marker of HIV control in natural infection and after therapeutic vaccination

BACKGROUND

Biomarkers predicting the outcome of HIV-1 virus control in natural infection and after therapeutic interventions in HIV-1 cure trials remain poorly defined. The BCN02 trial (NCT02616874), combined a T-cell vaccine with romidepsin (RMD), a cancer-drug that was used to promote HIV-1 latency reversal and which has also been shown to have beneficial effects on neurofunction. We conducted longitudinal plasma proteomics analyses in trial participants to define biomarkers associated with virus control during monitored antiretroviral pause (MAP) and to identify novel therapeutic targets that can improve future cure strategies.

METHODS

BCN02 was a phase I, open-label, single-arm clinical trial in early-treated, HIV infected individuals. Longitudinal plasma proteomes were analyzed in 11 BCN02 participants, including 8 participants that showed a rapid HIV-1 plasma rebound during a monitored antiretroviral pause (MAP-NC, 'non-controllers') and 3 that remained off ART with sustained plasma viremia <2000 copies/ml (MAP-C, 'controllers'). Inflammatory and neurological proteomes in plasma were evaluated and integration data analysis (viral and neurocognitive parameters) was performed. Validation studies were conducted in a cohort of untreated HIV-1+ individuals (n = 96) and in vitro viral replication assays using an anti-CD33 antibody were used for functional validation.

FINDINGS

Inflammatory plasma proteomes in BCN02 participants showed marked longitudinal alterations. Strong proteome differences were also observed between MAP-C and MAP-NC, including in baseline timepoints. CD33/Siglec-3 was the unique plasma marker with the ability to discriminate between MAPC-C and MAP-NC at all study timepoints and showed positive correlations with viral parameters. Analyses in an untreated cohort of PLWH confirmed the positive correlation between viral parameters and CD33 plasma levels, as well as PBMC gene expression. Finally, adding an anti-CD33 antibody to in vitro virus cultures significantly reduced HIV-1 replication and proviral levels in T cells and macrophages.

INTERPRETATION

This study indicates that CD33/Siglec-3 may serve as a predictor of HIV-1 control and as potential therapeutic tool to improve future cure strategies.

FUNDING

Spanish Science and Innovation Ministry (SAF2017-89726-R and PID2020-119710RB-I00), NIH (P01-AI131568), European Commission (GA101057548) and a Grifols research agreement.

Making waves: Integrating wastewater surveillance with dynamic modeling to track and predict viral outbreaks

Wastewater surveillance has proved to be a valuable tool to track the COVID-19 pandemic. However, most studies using wastewater surveillance data revolve around establishing correlations and lead time relative to reported case data. In this perspective, we advocate for the integration of wastewater surveillance data with dynamic within-host and between-host models to better understand, monitor, and predict viral disease outbreaks. Dynamic models overcome emblematic difficulties of using wastewater surveillance data such as establishing the temporal viral shedding profile. Complementarily, wastewater surveillance data bypasses the issues of time lag and underreporting in clinical case report data, thus enhancing the utility and applicability of dynamic models. The integration of wastewater surveillance data with dynamic models can enhance real-time tracking and prevalence estimation, forecast viral transmission and intervention effectiveness, and most importantly, provide a mechanistic understanding of infectious disease dynamics and the driving factors. Dynamic modeling of wastewater surveillance data will advance the development of a predictive and responsive monitoring system to improve pandemic preparedness and population health.

The Essential Need for Trust When Transmission Risk Cannot Be Eliminated in HIV-Remission Trials

Analytic treatment interruption (ATI) is scientifically necessary in HIV-remission ("cure") studies to test the effects of new interventions. However, stopping antiretroviral treatment poses risks to research participants and their sexual partners. Ethical debate about whether and how to conduct such studies has largely centered on designing risk-mitigation strategies and identifying the responsibilities of research stakeholders. In this paper, we argue that because the possibility of HIV transmission from research participants to partners during ATI cannot practicably be eliminated-that is, it is ineliminable-the successful conduct of such trials ultimately depends on relationships of trust and trustworthiness. We describe our experiences with conducting and studying HIV-remission trials with ATI in Thailand to examine the strengths, complexities, and limitations of the risk-mitigation and responsibility approaches and to explore ways in which the building of trust-and trustworthiness-may help enhance the scientific, practical, and ethical dimensions of these trials.

Substantial uneven proliferation of CD4+ T cells during recovery from acute HIV infection is sufficient to explain the observed expanded clones in the HIV reservoir

The HIV reservoir is a population of 1-10 million anatomically dispersed, latently infected memory CD4+ T cells in which HIV DNA is quiescently integrated into human chromosomal DNA. When antiretroviral therapy (ART) is stopped and HIV replication initiates in one of these cells, systemic viral spread resumes, rekindling progression to AIDS. Therefore, HIV latency prevents cure. The detection of many populations of identical HIV sequences at unique integration sites implicates CD4+ T cell proliferation as the critical driver of reservoir sustainment after a prolonged period of effective ART. Initial reservoir formation occurs during the first week of primary infection usually before ART is started. While empirical data indicates that both de novo infection and cellular proliferation generate latently infected cells during early untreated infection, it is not known which of these mechanisms is predominant. We developed a mathematical model that recapitulates the profound depletion and brisk recovery of CD4+ T cells, reservoir creation, and viral load trajectory during primary HIV infection. We extended the model to stochastically simulate individual HIV reservoir clones. This model predicts the first detection of HIV infected clones approximately 5 weeks after infection as has recently been shown in vivo and suggests that substantial, uneven proliferation among clones during the recovery from CD4+ lymphopenia is the most plausible explanation for the observed clonal reservoir distribution during the first year of infection.

Discordance between HIV-1 Population in Plasma at Rebound after Structured Treatment Interruption and Archived Provirus Population in Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) can sustain the suppression of plasma viremia to below detection levels. Infected individuals undergoing a treatment interruption exhibit rapid viral rebound in plasma viremia which is fueled by cellular reservoirs such as CD4+ T cells, myeloid cells, and potentially uncharacterized cellular sources. Interrogating the populations of viruses found during analytical treatment interruption (ATI) can give insights into the biologically competent reservoirs that persist under effective ART as well as the nature of the cellular reservoirs that enable viral persistence under ART. We interrogated plasma viremia from four rare cases of individuals undergoing sequential ATIs. We performed next-generation sequencing (NGS) on cell-associated viral DNA and cell-free virus to understand the interrelationship between sequential ATIs as well as the relationship between viral genomes in circulating peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and RNA from rebound plasma. We observed population differences between viral populations recrudescing at sequential ATIs as well as divergence between viral sequences in plasma and those in PBMCs. This indicated that viruses in PBMCs were not a major source of post-ATI viremia and highlights the role of anatomic reservoirs in post-ATI viremia and viral persistence. IMPORTANCE Even with effective ART, HIV-1 persists at undetectable levels and rebounds in individuals who stop treatment. Cellular and anatomical reservoirs ignite viral rebound upon treatment interruption, remaining one of the key obstacles for HIV-1 cure. To further examine HIV-1 persistence, a better understanding of the distinct populations that fuel viral rebound is necessary to identify and target reservoirs and the eradication of HIV-1. This study investigates the populations of viruses found from proviral genomes from PBMCs and plasma at rebound from a unique cohort of individuals who underwent multiple rounds of treatment interruption. Using NGS, we characterized the subtypes of viral sequences and found divergence in viral populations between plasma and PBMCs at each rebound, suggesting that distinct viral populations appear at each treatment interruption.

Vesicular MicroRNA as Potential Biomarkers of Viral Rebound

Changes in the cellular microRNA (miRNA) expression profile in response to HIV infection, replication or latency have been reported. Nevertheless, little is known concerning the abundance of miRNA in extracellular vesicles (EVs). In the search for a reliable predictor of viral rebound, we quantified the amount of miR-29a, miR-146a, and miR-155 in two types of plasma extracellular vesicles. Venous blood was collected from 235 ART-treated and ART-naive persons living with HIV (85 with ongoing viral replication, ≥20 copies/mL) and 60 HIV-negative participants at five HIV testing or treatment centers in Burkina Faso. Large and small plasma EVs were purified and counted, and mature miRNA miR-29a, miR-146a, and miR-155 were measured by RT-qPCR. Diagnostic performance of miRNA levels in large and small EVs was evaluated by a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The median duration of HIV infection was 36 months (IQR 14-117). The median duration of ART was 34 months (IQR 13-85). The virus was undetectable in 63.8% of these persons. In the others, viral load ranged from 108 to 33,978 copies/mL (median = 30,032). Large EVs were more abundant in viremic participants than aviremic. All three miRNAs were significantly more abundant in small EVs in persons with detectable HIV RNA, and their expression levels in copies per vesicle were a more reliable indicator of viral replication in ART-treated patients with low viremia (20-1000 copies/mL). HIV replication increased the production of large EVs more than small EVs. Combined with viral load measurement, quantifying EV-associated miRNA abundance relative to the number of vesicles provides a more reliable marker of the viral status. The expression level as copies per small vesicle could predict the viral rebound in ART-treated patients with undetectable viral loads.

Expression of type I interferon-associated genes at antiretroviral therapy interruption predicts HIV virological rebound

Although certain individuals with HIV infection can stop antiretroviral therapy (ART) without viral load rebound, the mechanisms under-pinning 'post-treatment control' remain unclear. Using RNA-Seq we explored CD4 T cell gene expression to identify evidence of a mechanism that might underpin virological rebound and lead to discovery of associated biomarkers. Fourteen female participants who received 12 months of ART starting from primary HIV infection were sampled at the time of stopping therapy. Two analysis methods (Differential Gene Expression with Gene Set Enrichment Analysis, and Weighted Gene Co-expression Network Analysis) were employed to interrogate CD4+ T cell gene expression data and study pathways enriched in post-treatment controllers versus early rebounders. Using independent analysis tools, expression of genes associated with type I interferon responses were associated with a delayed time to viral rebound following treatment interruption (TI). Expression of four genes identified by Cox-Lasso (ISG15, XAF1, TRIM25 and USP18) was converted to a Risk Score, which associated with rebound (p < 0.01). These data link transcriptomic signatures associated with innate immunity with control following stopping ART. The results from this small sample need to be confirmed in larger trials, but could help define strategies for new therapies and identify new biomarkers for remission.

Mesenchymal Stromal Cells: a Possible Reservoir for HIV-1?

The introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has transformed human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 into a chronic, well-managed disease. However, these therapies do not eliminate all infected cells from the body despite suppressing viral load. Viral rebound is largely due to the presence of cellular reservoirs which support long-term persistence of HIV-1. A thorough understanding of the HIV-1 reservoir will facilitate the development of new strategies leading to its detection, reduction, and elimination, ultimately leading to curative therapies for HIV-1. Although immune cells derived from lymphoid and myeloid progenitors have been thoroughly studied as HIV-1 reservoirs, few studies have examined whether mesenchymal stromal/stem cells (MSCs) can assume this function. In this review, we evaluate published studies which have assessed whether MSCs contribute to the HIV-1 reservoir. MSCs have been found to express the receptors and co-receptors required for HIV-1 entry, albeit at levels of expression and receptor localisation that vary considerably between studies. Exposure to HIV-1 and HIV-1 proteins alters MSC properties in vitro, including their proliferation capacity and differentiation potential. However, in vitro and in vivo experiments investigating whether MSCs can become infected with and harbour latent integrated proviral DNA are lacking. In conclusion, MSCs appear to have the potential to contribute to the HIV-1 reservoir. However, further studies are needed using techniques such as those used to prove that cluster of differentiation (CD)4⁺ T cells constitute an HIV-1 reservoir before a reservoir function can definitively be ascribed to MSCs.

Nonlinear mixed-effects models for HIV viral load trajectories before and after antiretroviral therapy interruption, incorporating left censoring

OBJECTIVES

Characterizing features of the viral rebound trajectories and identifying host, virological, and immunological factors that are predictive of the viral rebound trajectories are central to HIV cure research. We investigate if key features of HIV viral decay and CD4 trajectories during antiretroviral therapy (ART) are associated with characteristics of HIV viral rebound following ART interruption.

METHODS

Nonlinear mixed effect (NLME) models are used to model viral load trajectories before and following ART interruption, incorporating left censoring due to lower detection limits of viral load assays. A stochastic approximation EM (SAEM) algorithm is used for parameter estimation and inference. To circumvent the computational intensity associated with maximizing the joint likelihood, we propose an easy-to-implement three-step method.

RESULTS

We evaluate the performance of the proposed method through simulation studies and apply it to data from the Zurich Primary HIV Infection Study. We find that some key features of viral load during ART (e.g., viral decay rate) are significantly associated with important characteristics of viral rebound following ART interruption (e.g., viral set point).

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed three-step method works well. We have shown that key features of viral decay during ART may be associated with important features of viral rebound following ART interruption.

OUP accepted manuscript

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

PD-1 blockade and vaccination provide therapeutic benefit against SIV by inducing broad and functional CD8+ T cells in lymphoid tissue

[Figure: see text].

CCR5-edited CD4+ T cells augment HIV-specific immunity to enable post-rebound control of HIV replication

BackgroundWe conducted a phase I clinical trial that infused CCR5 gene-edited CD4+ T cells to determine how these T cells can better enable HIV cure strategies.MethodsThe aim of trial was to develop RNA-based approaches to deliver zinc finger nuclease (ZFN), evaluate the effect of CCR5 gene-edited CD4+ T cells on the HIV-specific T cell response, test the ability of infused CCR5 gene-edited T cells to delay viral rebound during analytical treatment interruption, and determine whether individuals heterozygous for CCR5 Δ32 preferentially benefit. We enrolled 14 individuals living with HIV whose viral load was well controlled by antiretroviral therapy (ART). We measured the time to viral rebound after ART withdrawal, the persistence of CCR5-edited CD4+ T cells, and whether infusion of 10 billion CCR5-edited CD4+ T cells augmented the HIV-specific immune response.ResultsInfusion of the CD4+ T cells was well tolerated, with no serious adverse events. We observed a modest delay in the time to viral rebound relative to historical controls; however, 3 of the 14 individuals, 2 of whom were heterozygous for CCR5 Δ32, showed post-viral rebound control of viremia, before ultimately losing control of viral replication. Interestingly, only these individuals had substantial restoration of HIV-specific CD8+ T cell responses. We observed immune escape for 1 of these reinvigorated responses at viral recrudescence, illustrating a direct link between viral control and enhanced CD8+ T cell responses.ConclusionThese findings demonstrate how CCR5 gene-edited CD4+ T cell infusion could aid HIV cure strategies by augmenting preexisting HIV-specific immune responses.REGISTRATIONClinicalTrials.gov NCT02388594.FundingNIH funding (R01AI104400, UM1AI126620, U19AI149680, T32AI007632) was provided by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA), the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH), and the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS). Sangamo Therapeutics also provided funding for these studies.

Unified model of short- and long-term HIV viral rebound for clinical trial planning

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectively controls HIV infection, suppressing HIV viral loads. Typically suspension of therapy is rapidly followed by rebound of viral loads to high, pre-therapy levels. Indeed, a recent study showed that approximately 90% of treatment interruption study participants show viral rebound within at most a few months of therapy suspension, but the remaining 10%, showed viral rebound some months, or years, after ART suspension. Some may even never rebound. We investigate and compare branching process models aimed at gaining insight into these viral dynamics. Specifically, we provide a theory that explains both short- and long-term viral rebounds, and post-treatment control, via a multitype branching process with time-inhomogeneous rates, validated with data from Li et al. (Li et al. 2016 AIDS30, 343-353. (doi:10.1097/QAD.0000000000000953)). We discuss the associated biological interpretation and implications of our best-fit model. To test the effectiveness of an experimental intervention in delaying or preventing rebound, the standard practice is to suspend therapy and monitor the study participants for rebound. We close with a discussion of an important application of our modelling in the design of such clinical trials.

Extracellular Vesicles from Infected Cells Are Released Prior to Virion Release

Here, we have attempted to address the timing of EV and virion release from virally infected cells. Uninfected (CEM), HIV-1-infected (J1.1), and human T cell leukemia virus-1 (HTLV-1)-infected (HUT102) cells were synchronized in G₀. Viral latency was reversed by increasing gene expression with the addition of serum-rich media and inducers. Supernatants and cell pellets were collected post-induction at different timepoints and assayed for extracellular vesicle (EV) and autophagy markers; and for viral proteins and RNAs. Tetraspanins and autophagy-related proteins were found to be differentially secreted in HIV-1- and HTLV-1-infected cells when compared with uninfected controls. HIV-1 proteins were present at 6 h and their production increased up to 24 h. HTLV-1 proteins peaked at 6 h and plateaued. HIV-1 and HTLV-1 RNA production correlated with viral protein expression. Nanoparticle tracking analysis (NTA) showed increase of EV concentration over time in both uninfected and infected samples. Finally, the HIV-1 supernatant from the 6-h samples was found not to be infectious; however, the virus from the 24-h samples was successfully rescued and infectious. Overall, our data indicate that EV release may occur prior to viral release from infected cells, thereby implicating a potentially significant effect of EVs on uninfected recipient cells prior to subsequent viral infection and spread.

Thresholds for post-rebound SHIV control after CCR5 gene-edited autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation

Autologous, CCR5 gene-edited hematopoietic stem and progenitor cell (HSPC) transplantation is a promising strategy for achieving HIV remission. However, only a fraction of HSPCs can be edited ex vivo to provide protection against infection. To project the thresholds of CCR5-edition necessary for HIV remission, we developed a mathematical model that recapitulates blood T cell reconstitution and plasma simian-HIV (SHIV) dynamics from SHIV-1157ipd3N4-infected pig-tailed macaques that underwent autologous transplantation with CCR5 gene editing. The model predicts that viral control can be obtained following analytical treatment interruption (ATI) when: (1) transplanted HSPCs are at least fivefold higher than residual endogenous HSPCs after total body irradiation and (2) the fraction of protected HSPCs in the transplant achieves a threshold (76–94%) sufficient to overcome transplantation-dependent loss of SHIV immunity. Under these conditions, if ATI is withheld until transplanted gene-modified cells engraft and reconstitute to a steady state, spontaneous viral control is projected to occur.

Pre-existing resistance in the latent reservoir can compromise VRC01 therapy during chronic HIV-1 infection

Passive immunization with broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) of HIV-1 appears a promising strategy for eliciting long-term HIV-1 remission. When administered concomitantly with the cessation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) to patients with established viremic control, bNAb therapy is expected to prolong remission. Surprisingly, in clinical trials on chronic HIV-1 patients, the bNAb VRC01 failed to prolong remission substantially. Identifying the cause of this failure is important for improving VRC01-based therapies and unraveling potential vulnerabilities of other bNAbs. In the trials, viremia resurged rapidly in most patients despite suppressive VRC01 concentrations in circulation, suggesting that VRC01 resistance was the likely cause of failure. ART swiftly halts viral replication, precluding the development of resistance during ART. If resistance were to emerge post ART, virological breakthrough would have taken longer than without VRC01 therapy. We hypothesized therefore that VRC01-resistant strains must have been formed before ART initiation, survived ART in latently infected cells, and been activated during VRC01 therapy, causing treatment failure. Current assays preclude testing this hypothesis experimentally. We developed a mathematical model based on the hypothesis and challenged it with available clinical data. The model integrated within-host HIV-1 evolution, stochastic latency reactivation, and viral dynamics with multiple-dose VRC01 pharmacokinetics. The model predicted that single but not higher VRC01-resistant mutants would pre-exist in the latent reservoir. We constructed a virtual patient population that parsimoniously recapitulated inter-patient variations. Model predictions with this population quantitatively captured data of VRC01 failure from clinical trials, presenting strong evidence supporting the hypothesis. We attributed VRC01 failure to single-mutant VRC01-resistant proviruses in the latent reservoir triggering viral recrudescence, particularly when VRC01 was at trough levels. Pre-existing resistant proviruses in the latent reservoir may similarly compromise other bNAbs. Our study provides a framework for designing bNAb-based therapeutic protocols that would avert such failure and maximize HIV-1 remission.

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) can control but not eradicate HIV-1. Stopping ART leads to rapid viral resurgence and progressive disease. ART is therefore administered lifelong. Tremendous efforts are ongoing to devise strategies that will enable stopping ART and yet prevent viral resurgence. One such strategy involves the administration of broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) of HIV-1 at the time of stopping ART. This strategy is expected to delay if not prevent viral resurgence. Surprisingly, treatment with VRC01, a potent bNAb, resulted in hardly any improvement in viral remission. In this study, we elucidate the cause of this failure. We hypothesized that VRC01-resistant strains may pre-exist in latently infected cells, which are unaffected by ART. They can thus outlast ART and get reactivated, triggering VRC01 failure. We built a detailed mathematical model based on this hypothesis and showed that it quantitatively captured observations of VRC01 failure in clinical trials on chronic HIV-1 patients. Our study thus identifies a potential vulnerability of bNAbs, namely, bNAb-resistant strains pre-existing in latently infected cells. Our model offers a framework for predicting bNAb-based treatment protocols that would preclude failure due to pre-existing resistance and maximally prolong remission.

Models of SIV rebound after treatment interruption that involve multiple reactivation events

In order to assess the efficacy of novel HIV-1 treatments leading to a functional cure, the time to viral rebound is frequently used as a surrogate endpoint. The longer the time to viral rebound, the more efficacious the therapy. In support of such an approach, mathematical models serve as a connection between the size of the latent reservoir and the time to HIV-1 rebound after treatment interruption. The simplest of such models assumes that a single successful latent cell reactivation event leads to observable viremia after a period of exponential viral growth. Here we consider a generalization developed by Pinkevych et al. and Hill et al. of this simple model in which multiple reactivation events can occur, each contributing to the exponential growth of the viral load. We formalize and improve the previous derivation of the dynamics predicted by this model, and use the model to estimate relevant biological parameters from SIV rebound data. We confirm a previously described effect of very early antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation on the rate of recrudescence and the viral load growth rate after treatment interruption. We find that every day ART initiation is delayed results in a 39% increase in the recrudescence rate (95% credible interval: [18%, 62%]), and a 11% decrease of the viral growth rate (95% credible interval: [4%, 20%]). We show that when viral rebound occurs early relative to the viral load doubling time, a model with multiple successful reactivation events fits the data better than a model with only a single successful reactivation event.

Impact of fluctuation in frequency of human immunodeficiency virus/simian immunodeficiency virus reactivation during antiretroviral therapy interruption

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) provides effective control of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) replication and maintains viral loads of HIV at undetectable levels. Interruption of ART causes rapid recrudescence of HIV plasma viremia due to reactivation of latently HIV-infected cells. Here, we characterize the timing of both the initial and subsequent successful viral reactivations following ART interruption in macaques infected with simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV). We compare these to previous results from HIV-infected patients. We find that on average the time until the first successful viral reactivation event is longer than the time between subsequent reactivations. Based on this result, we hypothesize that the reactivation frequency of both HIV and SIV may fluctuate over time, and that this may impact the treatment of HIV. We develop a stochastic model incorporating fluctuations in the frequency of viral reactivation following ART interruption that shows behaviours consistent with the observed data. Furthermore, we show that one of the impacts of a fluctuating reactivation frequency would be to significantly reduce the efficacy of 'anti-latency' interventions for HIV that aim to reduce the frequency of reactivation. It is therefore essential to consider the possibility of a fluctuating reactivation frequency when assessing the impact of such intervention strategies.

Comparison of empirical and dynamic models for HIV viral load rebound after treatment interruption

OBJECTIVE

To compare empirical and mechanistic modeling approaches for describing HIV-1 RNA viral load trajectories after antiretroviral treatment interruption and for identifying factors that predict features of viral rebound process.

METHODS

We apply and compare two modeling approaches in analysis of data from 346 participants in six AIDS Clinical Trial Group studies. From each separate analysis, we identify predictors for viral set points and delay in rebound. Our empirical model postulates a parametric functional form whose parameters represent different features of the viral rebound process, such as rate of rise and viral load set point. The viral dynamics model augments standard HIV dynamics models-a class of mathematical models based on differential equations describing biological mechanisms-by including reactivation of latently infected cells and adaptive immune response. We use Monolix, which makes use of a Stochastic Approximation of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm, to fit non-linear mixed effects models incorporating observations that were below the assay limit of quantification.

RESULTS

Among the 346 participants, the median age at treatment interruption was 42. Ninety-three percent of participants were male and sixty-five percent, white non-Hispanic. Both models provided a reasonable fit to the data and can accommodate atypical viral load trajectories. The median set points obtained from two approaches were similar: 4.44 log10 copies/mL from the empirical model and 4.59 log10 copies/mL from the viral dynamics model. Both models revealed that higher nadir CD4 cell counts and ART initiation during acute/recent phase were associated with lower viral set points and identified receiving a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based pre-ATI regimen as a predictor for a delay in rebound.

CONCLUSION

Although based on different sets of assumptions, both models lead to similar conclusions regarding features of viral rebound process.

A flexible nonlinear mixed effects model for HIV viral load rebound after treatment interruption

Characterization of HIV viral rebound after the discontinuation of antiretroviral therapy is central to HIV cure research. We propose a parametric nonlinear mixed effects model for the viral rebound trajectory, which often has a rapid rise to a peak value followed by a decrease to a viral load set point. We choose a flexible functional form that captures the shapes of viral rebound trajectories and can also provide biological insights regarding the rebound process. Each parameter can incorporate a random effect to allow for variation in parameters across individuals. Key features of viral rebound trajectories such as viral set points are represented by the parameters in the model, which facilitates assessment of intervention effects and identification of important pretreatment interruption predictors for these features. We employ a stochastic expectation-maximization (StEM) algorithm to incorporate HIV-1 RNA values that are below the lower limit of assay quantification. We evaluate the performance of our model in simulation studies and apply the proposed model to longitudinal HIV-1 viral load data from five AIDS Clinical Trials Group treatment interruption studies.

Modeling Viral Suppression, Viral Rebound and State-Specific Duration of HIV Patients with CD4 Count Adjustment: Parametric Multistate Frailty Model Approach

INTRODUCTION

Combination antiretroviral therapy has become the standard care of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients and has further led to a dramatically decreased progression probability to acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) for patients under such a therapy. However, responses of the patients to this therapy have recorded heterogeneous complexity and high dynamism. In this paper, we simultaneously model long-term viral suppression, viral rebound, and state-specific duration of HIV-infected patients.

METHODS

Full-parametric and semi-parametric Markov multistate models were applied to assess the effects of covariates namely TB co-infection, educational status, marital status, age, quality of life (QoL) scores, white and red blood cell parameters, and liver enzyme abnormality on long-term viral suppression, viral rebound and state-specific duration for HIV-infected individuals before and after treatment. Furthermore, two models, one including and another excluding the effect of the frailty, were presented and compared in this study.

RESULTS

Results from the diagnostic plots, Akaike information criterion (AIC) and likelihood ratio test showed that the Weibull multistate frailty model fitted significantly better than the exponential and semi-parametric multistate models. Viral rebound was found to be significantly associated with many sex partners, higher eosinophils count, younger age, lower educational level, higher monocyte counts, having abnormal neutrophils count, and higher liver enzyme abnormality. Furthermore, viral suppression was also found to be significantly associated with higher QoL scores, and having a stable sex partner. The analysis result also showed that patients with a stable sex partner, higher educational levels, higher QoL scores, lower eosinophils count, lower monocyte counts, and higher RBC indices were more likely to spend more time in undetectable viral load state.

CONCLUSIONS

To achieve and maintain the UNAIDS 90% suppression targets, additional interventions are required to optimize antiretroviral therapy outcomes, specifically targeting those with poor clinical characteristics, lower education, younger age, and those with many sex partners. From a methodological perspective, the parametric multistate approach with frailty is a flexible approach for modeling time-varying variables, allowing for dealing with heterogeneity between the sequence of transitions, as well as allowing for a reasonable degree of flexibility with a few additional parameters, which then aids in gaining a better insight into how factors change over time.