Identity-by-descent with uncertainty characterises connectivity of Plasmodium falciparum populations on the Colombian-Pacific coast

Temporal and spatial dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum clonal lineages in Guyana

Plasmodium parasites, the causal agents of malaria, are eukaryotic organisms that obligately undergo sexual recombination within mosquitoes. In low transmission settings, parasites recombine with themselves, and the clonal lineage is propagated rather than broken up by outcrossing. We investigated whether stochastic/neutral factors drive the persistence and abundance of Plasmodium falciparum clonal lineages in Guyana, a country with relatively low malaria transmission, but the only setting in the Americas in which an important artemisinin resistance mutation (pfk13 C580Y) has been observed. We performed whole genome sequencing on 1,727 Plasmodium falciparum samples collected from infected patients across a five-year period (2016-2021). We characterized the relatedness between each pair of monoclonal infections (n = 1,409) through estimation of identity-by-descent (IBD) and also typed each sample for known or candidate drug resistance mutations. A total of 160 multi-isolate clones (mean IBD ≥ 0.90) were circulating in Guyana during the study period, comprising 13 highly related clusters (mean IBD ≥ 0.40). In the five-year study period, we observed a decrease in frequency of a mutation associated with artemisinin partner drug (piperaquine) resistance (pfcrt C350R) and limited co-occurence of pfcrt C350R with duplications of plasmepsin 2/3, an epistatic interaction associated with piperaquine resistance. We additionally observed 61 nonsynonymous substitutions that increased markedly in frequency over the study period as well as a novel pfk13 mutation (G718S). However, P. falciparum clonal dynamics in Guyana appear to be largely driven by stochastic factors, in contrast to other geographic regions, given that clones carrying drug resistance polymorphisms do not demonstrate enhanced persistence or higher abundance than clones carrying polymorphisms of comparable frequency that are unrelated to resistance. The use of multiple artemisinin combination therapies in Guyana may have contributed to the disappearance of the pfk13 C580Y mutation.

Strong positive selection biases identity-by-descent-based inferences of recent demography and population structure in Plasmodium falciparum

Malaria genomic surveillance often estimates parasite genetic relatedness using metrics such as Identity-By-Decent (IBD), yet strong positive selection stemming from antimalarial drug resistance or other interventions may bias IBD-based estimates. In this study, we use simulations, a true IBD inference algorithm, and empirical data sets from different malaria transmission settings to investigate the extent of this bias and explore potential correction strategies. We analyze whole genome sequence data generated from 640 new and 3089 publicly available Plasmodium falciparum clinical isolates. We demonstrate that positive selection distorts IBD distributions, leading to underestimated effective population size and blurred population structure. Additionally, we discover that the removal of IBD peak regions partially restores the accuracy of IBD-based inferences, with this effect contingent on the population's background genetic relatedness and extent of inbreeding. Consequently, we advocate for selection correction for parasite populations undergoing strong, recent positive selection, particularly in high malaria transmission settings.

Temporal and spatial dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum clonal lineages in Guyana

Plasmodium parasites, the causal agents of malaria, are eukaryotic organisms that obligately undergo sexual recombination within mosquitoes. However, in low transmission settings where most mosquitoes become infected with only a single parasite clone, parasites recombine with themselves, and the clonal lineage is propagated rather than broken up by outcrossing. We investigated whether stochastic/neutral factors drive the persistence and abundance of Plasmodium falciparum clonal lineages in Guyana, a country with relatively low malaria transmission, but the only setting in the Americas in which an important artemisinin resistance mutation (pfk13 C580Y) has been observed. To investigate whether this clonality was potentially associated with the persistence and spatial spread of the mutation, we performed whole genome sequencing on 1,727 Plasmodium falciparum samples collected from infected patients across a five-year period (2016-2021). We characterized the relatedness between each pair of monoclonal infections (n=1,409) through estimation of identity by descent (IBD) and also typed each sample for known or candidate drug resistance mutations. A total of 160 clones (mean IBD ≥ 0.90) were circulating in Guyana during the study period, comprising 13 highly related clusters (mean IBD ≥ 0.40). In the five-year study period, we observed a decrease in frequency of a mutation associated with artemisinin partner drug (piperaquine) resistance (pfcrt C350R) and limited co-occurence of pfcrt C350R with duplications of plasmepsin 2/3, an epistatic interaction associated with piperaquine resistance. We additionally report polymorphisms exhibiting evidence of selection for drug resistance or other phenotypes and reported a novel pfk13 mutation (G718S) as well as 61 nonsynonymous substitutions that increased markedly in frequency. However, P. falciparum clonal dynamics in Guyana appear to be largely driven by stochastic factors, in contrast to other geographic regions. The use of multiple artemisinin combination therapies in Guyana may have contributed to the disappearance of the pfk13 C580Y mutation.

Genomic analysis of Plasmodium vivax describes patterns of connectivity and putative drivers of adaptation in Ethiopia

Ethiopia has the greatest burden of Plasmodium vivax in Africa, but little is known about the epidemiological landscape of parasites across the country. We analysed the genomic diversity of 137 P. vivax isolates collected nine Ethiopian districts from 2012 to 2016. Signatures of selection were detected by cross-country comparisons with isolates from Thailand (n = 104) and Indonesia (n = 111), representing regions with low and high chloroquine resistance respectively. 26% (35/137) of Ethiopian infections were polyclonal, and 48.5% (17/35) of these comprised highly related clones (within-host identity-by-descent > 25%), indicating frequent co-transmission and superinfection. Parasite gene flow between districts could not be explained entirely by geographic distance, with economic and cultural factors hypothesised to have an impact on connectivity. Amplification of the duffy binding protein gene (pvdbp1) was prevalent across all districts (16-75%). Cross-population haplotype homozygosity revealed positive selection in a region proximal to the putative chloroquine resistance transporter gene (pvcrt-o). An S25P variant in amino acid transporter 1 (pvaat1), whose homologue has recently been implicated in P. falciparum chloroquine resistance evolution, was prevalent in Ethiopia (96%) but not Thailand or Indonesia (35-53%). The genomic architecture in Ethiopia highlights circulating variants of potential public health concern in an endemic setting with evidence of stable transmission.

Genomics of Plasmodium vivax in Colombia reveals evidence of local bottle-necking and inter-country connectivity in the Americas

Colombia aims to eliminate malaria by 2030 but remains one of the highest burden countries in the Americas. Plasmodium vivax contributes half of all malaria cases, with its control challenged by relapsing parasitaemia, drug resistance and cross-border spread. Using 64 Colombian P. vivax genomes collected between 2013 and 2017, we explored diversity and selection in two major foci of transmission: Chocó and Córdoba. Open-access data from other countries were used for comparative assessment of drug resistance candidates and to assess cross-border spread. Across Colombia, polyclonal infections were infrequent (12%), and infection connectivity was relatively high (median IBD = 5%), consistent with low endemicity. Chocó exhibited a higher frequency of polyclonal infections (23%) than Córdoba (7%), although the difference was not significant (P = 0.300). Most Colombian infections carried double pvdhfr (95%) and single pvdhps (71%) mutants, but other drug resistance mutations were less prevalent (< 10%). There was no evidence of selection at the pvaat1 gene, whose P. falciparum orthologue has recently been implicated in chloroquine resistance. Global population comparisons identified other putative adaptations. Within the Americas, low-level connectivity was observed between Colombia and Peru, highlighting potential for cross-border spread. Our findings demonstrate the potential of molecular data to inform on infection spread and adaptation.

Whole-genome surveillance identifies markers of Plasmodium falciparum drug resistance and novel genomic regions under selection in Mozambique

IMPORTANCE

Malaria is a devastating disease caused by Plasmodium parasites. The evolution of parasite drug resistance continues to hamper progress toward malaria elimination, and despite extensive efforts to control malaria, it remains a leading cause of death in Mozambique and other countries in the region. The development of successful vaccines and identification of molecular markers to track drug efficacy are essential for managing the disease burden. We present an analysis of the parasite genome in Mozambique, a country with one of the highest malaria burdens globally and limited available genomic data, revealing current selection pressure. We contribute additional evidence to limited prior studies supporting the effectiveness of SWGA in producing reliable genomic data from complex clinical samples. Our results provide the identity of genomic loci that may be associated with current antimalarial drug use, including artemisinin and lumefantrine, and reveal selection pressure predicted to compromise the efficacy of current vaccine candidates.

Strong Positive Selection Biases Identity-By-Descent-Based Inferences of Recent Demography and Population Structure in Plasmodium falciparum

Malaria genomic surveillance often estimates parasite genetic relatedness using metrics such as Identity-By-Decent (IBD). Yet, strong positive selection stemming from antimalarial drug resistance or other interventions may bias IBD-based estimates. In this study, we utilized simulations, a true IBD inference algorithm, and empirical datasets from different malaria transmission settings to investigate the extent of such bias and explore potential correction strategies. We analyzed whole genome sequence data generated from 640 new and 4,026 publicly available Plasmodium falciparum clinical isolates. Our findings demonstrated that positive selection distorts IBD distributions, leading to underestimated effective population size and blurred population structure. Additionally, we discovered that the removal of IBD peak regions partially restored the accuracy of IBD-based inferences, with this effect contingent on the population's background genetic relatedness. Consequently, we advocate for selection correction for parasite populations undergoing strong, recent positive selection, particularly in high malaria transmission settings.

Measurably recombining malaria parasites

Genomic epidemiology has guided research and policy for various viral pathogens and there has been a parallel effort towards using genomic epidemiology to combat diseases that are caused by eukaryotic pathogens, such as the malaria parasite. However, the central concept of viral genomic epidemiology, namely that of measurably mutating pathogens, does not apply easily to sexually recombining parasites. Here we introduce the related but different concept of measurably recombining malaria parasites to promote convergence around a unifying theoretical framework for malaria genomic epidemiology. Akin to viral phylodynamics, we anticipate that an inferential framework developed around recombination will help guide practical research and thus realize the full public health potential of genomic epidemiology for malaria parasites and other sexually recombining pathogens.

Resolving drug selection and migration in an inbred South American Plasmodium falciparum population with identity-by-descent analysis

The human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum is globally widespread, but its prevalence varies significantly between and even within countries. Most population genetic studies in P. falciparum focus on regions of high transmission where parasite populations are large and genetically diverse, such as sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding population dynamics in low transmission settings, however, is of particular importance as these are often where drug resistance first evolves. Here, we use the Pacific Coast of Colombia and Ecuador as a model for understanding the population structure and evolution of Plasmodium parasites in small populations harboring less genetic diversity. The combination of low transmission and a high proportion of monoclonal infections means there are few outcrossing events and clonal lineages persist for long periods of time. Yet despite this, the population is evolutionarily labile and has successfully adapted to changes in drug regime. Using newly sequenced whole genomes, we measure relatedness between 166 parasites, calculated as identity by descent (IBD), and find 17 distinct but highly related clonal lineages, six of which have persisted in the region for at least a decade. This inbred population structure is captured in more detail with IBD than with other common population structure analyses like PCA, ADMIXTURE, and distance-based trees. We additionally use patterns of intra-chromosomal IBD and an analysis of haplotypic variation to explore past selection events in the region. Two genes associated with chloroquine resistance, crt and aat1, show evidence of hard selective sweeps, while selection appears soft and/or incomplete at three other key resistance loci (dhps, mdr1, and dhfr). Overall, this work highlights the strength of IBD analyses for studying parasite population structure and resistance evolution in regions of low transmission, and emphasizes that drug resistance can evolve and spread in small populations, as will occur in any region nearing malaria elimination.

Fitness Costs of pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 Deletions Underlying Diagnostic Evasion in Malaria Parasites

BACKGROUND

Rapid diagnostic tests based on detection of histidine-rich proteins (HRPs) are widely used for malaria diagnosis, but parasites carrying pfhrp deletions can evade detection and are increasing in frequency in some countries. Models aim to predict conditions under which pfhrp2 and/or pfhrp3 deletions will increase, but a key parameter-the fitness cost of deletions-is unknown.

METHODS

We removed pfhrp2 and/or pfhrp3 from a Malawian parasite clone using gene editing approaches) and measured fitness costs by conducting pairwise competition experiments.

RESULTS

We observed significant fitness costs of 0.087 ± 0.008 (1 standard error) per asexual cycle for pfhrp2 deletion and 0.113 ± 0.008 for the pfhrp2/3 double deletion, relative to the unedited progenitor parasite. Selection against deletions is strong and comparable to that resulting from drug resistance mutations.

CONCLUSIONS

Prior modeling suggested that diagnostic selection may drive increased frequency of pfhrp deletions only when fitness costs are mild. Our experiments show that costs of pfhrp deletions are higher than these thresholds, but modeling and empirical results can be reconciled if the duration of infection is short. These results may inform future modeling to understand why pfhrp2/3 deletions are increasing in some locations (Ethiopia and Eritrea) but not in others (Mekong region).

Prospects for genomic surveillance for selection in schistosome parasites

Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease caused by multiple parasitic Schistosoma species, and which impacts over 200 million people globally, mainly in low- and middle-income countries. Genomic surveillance to detect evidence for natural selection in schistosome populations represents an emerging and promising approach to identify and interpret schistosome responses to ongoing control efforts or other environmental factors. Here we review how genomic variation is used to detect selection, how these approaches have been applied to schistosomes, and how future studies to detect selection may be improved. We discuss the theory of genomic analyses to detect selection, identify experimental designs for such analyses, and review studies that have applied these approaches to schistosomes. We then consider the biological characteristics of schistosomes that are expected to respond to selection, particularly those that may be impacted by control programs. Examples include drug resistance, host specificity, and life history traits, and we review our current understanding of specific genes that underlie them in schistosomes. We also discuss how inherent features of schistosome reproduction and demography pose substantial challenges for effective identification of these traits and their genomic bases. We conclude by discussing how genomic surveillance for selection should be designed to improve understanding of schistosome biology, and how the parasite changes in response to selection.

Primate malarias as a model for cross-species parasite transmission

Parasites regularly switch into new host species, representing a disease burden and conservation risk to the hosts. The distribution of these parasites also gives insight into characteristics of ecological networks and genetic mechanisms of host-parasite interactions. Some parasites are shared across many species, whereas others tend to be restricted to hosts from a single species. Understanding the mechanisms producing this distribution of host specificity can enable more effective interventions and potentially identify genetic targets for vaccines or therapies. As ecological connections between human and local animal populations increase, the risk to human and wildlife health from novel parasites also increases. Which of these parasites will fizzle out and which have the potential to become widespread in humans? We consider the case of primate malarias, caused by Plasmodium parasites, to investigate the interacting ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that put human and nonhuman primates at risk for infection. Plasmodium host switching from nonhuman primates to humans led to ancient introductions of the most common malaria-causing agents in humans today, and new parasite switching is a growing threat, especially in Asia and South America. Based on a wild host-Plasmodium occurrence database, we highlight geographic areas of concern and potential areas to target further sampling. We also discuss methodological developments that will facilitate clinical and field-based interventions to improve human and wildlife health based on this eco-evolutionary perspective.

Genetic surveillance for monitoring the impact of drug use on Plasmodium falciparum populations

The use of antimalarial drugs is an effective strategy in the fight against malaria. However, selection of drug resistant parasites is a constant threat to the continued use of this approach. Antimalarial drugs are used not only to treat infections but also as part of population-level strategies to reduce malaria transmission toward elimination. While there is strong evidence that the ongoing use of antimalarial drugs increases the risk of the emergence and spread of drug-resistant parasites, it is less clear how population-level use of drug-based interventions like seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) or mass drug administration (MDA) may contribute to drug resistance or loss of drug efficacy. Critical to sustained use of drug-based strategies for reducing the burden of malaria is the surveillance of population-level signals related to transmission reduction and resistance selection. Here we focus on Plasmodium falciparum and discuss the genetic signatures of a parasite population that are correlated with changes in transmission and related to drug pressure and resistance as a result of drug use. We review the evidence for MDA and SMC contributing to malaria burden reduction and drug resistance selection and examine the use and impact of these interventions in Senegal. Throughout we consider best strategies for ongoing surveillance of both population and resistance signals in the context of different parasite population parameters. Finally, we propose a roadmap for ongoing surveillance during population-level drug-based interventions to reduce the global malaria burden.

Advances and opportunities in malaria population genomics

Almost 20 years have passed since the first reference genome assemblies were published for Plasmodium falciparum, the deadliest malaria parasite, and Anopheles gambiae, the most important mosquito vector of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa. Reference genomes now exist for all human malaria parasites and nearly half of the ~40 important vectors around the world. As a foundation for genetic diversity studies, these reference genomes have helped advance our understanding of basic disease biology and drug and insecticide resistance, and have informed vaccine development efforts. Population genomic data are increasingly being used to guide our understanding of malaria epidemiology, for example by assessing connectivity between populations and the efficacy of parasite and vector interventions. The potential value of these applications to malaria control strategies, together with the increasing diversity of genomic data types and contexts in which data are being generated, raise both opportunities and challenges in the field. This Review discusses advances in malaria genomics and explores how population genomic data could be harnessed to further support global disease control efforts.

The changing epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax: Insights from conventional and novel surveillance tools

Sarah Auburn and co-authors discuss the unique biology and epidemiology of P. vivax and current evidence on conventional and new approaches to surveillance.