Predicting cesarean section and uterine rupture among women attempting vaginal birth after prior cesarean section

Continuity obstetric care demonstrates greater vaginal birth after caesarean success

BACKGROUND

Australia's caesarean rate is higher than Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) average, and is rising. Vaginal birth after caesarean (VBAC) is safe for selected women. Midwifery continuity of care (CoC) is associated with higher rates of vaginal birth compared to other models; however, impacts on VBAC attempts and success are unknown.

AIMS

The primary aim was to determine if there is a difference in achieving VBAC between CoC and non-CoC (NCoC) models. The secondary aim was to determine if there is a difference in the proportion of women attempting VBAC between these models.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Retrospective review of antenatal records and birthing data of all women who birthed in 2021 with one or more previous caesareans. Women were included if they had two or fewer caesareans. Women were excluded if contraindications to VBAC existed.

RESULTS

There were 142/1109 (12.8%) women who had previous caesareans and were eligible to attempt VBAC. There were 47/109 (43.1%) women who attempted vaginal birth after one caesarean with 78.7% success. After one caesarean, women in CoC were more likely to achieve VBAC than NCoC (45.2% vs 26.1%; relative risk (RR) 1.76, 95% CI 1.04-3.00), although when stratified by private and midwifery CoC models, women in midwifery CoC models were more likely to be successful (private RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.23-2.07 vs midwifery RR 2.48, 95% CI 1.50-4.11). Women in CoC were more likely to attempt VBAC (54.7% vs 34.8%; RR 1.57, 95% CI 1.02-2.41), and receive counselling about VBAC (92.5% vs 62%; RR 1.48, 95% CI 1.41-3.11).

CONCLUSION

CoC improves the rate of attempted and successful VBAC through several factors, including increased counselling and greater provision of birth choices.

Factors associated with successful balloon catheter labor induction in women with a previous caesarean section: A retrospective single-center evaluation

BACKGROUND

Labor induction of women with a history of uterine scarring is an increasingly frequent situation and one for which there are currently no clear professional recommendations favoring one method over another. The objectives of this study were to determine the success rate of balloon catheter induction in women with a history of caesarean section and to evaluate the main factors associated with vaginal delivery.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This single-center retrospective study was conducted between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2018, in Lille, France, and included all women with one previous caesarean section who were induced by first-line balloon catheter induction. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify the factors associated with the primary outcome (vaginal delivery).

RESULTS

Of the 310 women in the sample, 192 delivered vaginally (62 %). After adjustment, factors associated with successful induction (vaginal delivery) were the number of previous vaginal deliveries (odds ratio [OR] 1.37; 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.81), evolution of the Bishop score after balloon removal (OR 1.24; 95 % CI 1.10-1.41), and the initial Bishop score (OR 1.17; 95 % CI 1.00-1.37). Uterine rupture was observed in three women (1 %).

CONCLUSION

The vaginal delivery rate after balloon catheter induction in women with a previous caesarean section was 62 %. Prognostic factors for vaginal delivery include previous vaginal delivery, the initial Bishop score, and evolution of the Bishop score after balloon catheter induction.

External validation of prediction models for vaginal delivery after the trial of labour among women with previous one caesarean section - A cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To externally validate three predictive models (the Grobman model (2007), the Zhang model (2020), and the Grobman model (2021)) for identifying women with increased chances of a successful trial of labour after caesarean section (TOLAC).

METHODS

This retrospective observational cohort study was conducted in a tertiary teaching hospital from 2018 to 2021. Individual probabilities were calculated for women with previous one caesarean section who underwent TOLAC at term, using the predicted probabilities from the logistic regression models. The primary outcome of this study was vaginal delivery following attempted TOLAC. The predictive ability of the models was assessed using the area under the receiver operative characteristics curves (AUC) and a calibration graph.

RESULTS

Of 1515 eligible women who underwent TOLAC, we found an overall rate of successful TOLAC of 60.3 %. No significant difference was noticed in adverse scar outcome and neonatal morbidity while comparing successful and failed TOLAC. The discriminative ability of Grobman-2007 and Grobman-2021 and the Zhang model were fair to poor with the AUC of 0.54(95 % CI 0.51-0.57), 0.62(95 % CI 0.59-0.65) and 0.66(95 % CI 0.63-0.69) respectively. The agreement between the observed rates of TOLAC success and the predicted probabilities for all three models was poor.

CONCLUSION

The performance of all three models predicting success after TOLAC was poor in the study population. A population-specific model may be needed, with the addition of factors influencing the labour, such as the methods of induction, which may aid in predicting the outcome.

Prediction of vaginal birth after cesarean in China

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop and validate a prediction model of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery (VBAC) in China.

METHODS

A nomogram for effective prediction of VBAC of singleton, cephalic and one previous low-transverse cesarean section deliveries was created by comparing the combinations of ultrasonographic and non-ultrasonographic factors from five hospitals between 2018 and 2019.

RESULTS

A total of 1066 women were included. Of the women who underwent trial of labor after cesarean (TOLAC), 854 (80.1%) had a VBAC. Ultrasound factors included reached a higher area under the curve (AUC) combined with non-ultrasonographic factors. Of the three ultrasonographic factors analyzed, the best predictive factor for successful TOLAC was fetal abdominal circumference. A nomogram was generated with eight validated factors, including maternal age, gestational week, height, previous vaginal delivery, Bishop score, dilatation of the cervix at the time of admission, body mass index at delivery, and fetal abdominal circumference by ultrasound. The trained and validated AUC were 0.719 (95% confident interval 0.674-0.764) and 0.774 (95% confident interval 0.712-0.837), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our VBAC nomogram based on obstetric factors and fetal abdominal circumference obtained by ultrasound could be used to counsel women who are considering TOLAC.

Middle eastern college of obstetricians and gynecologists (MCOG) practice guidelines: Role of prediction models in management of trial of labor after cesarean section. Practice guideline no. 05-O-22✰,✰✰,★,★★

Cesarean delivery rates have been steadily rising since the beginning of the 21st century. The growing incidence is even more prominent in developing countries owing to lack of evidence-based guidance and audit, and the expansion of private practice. The uprise in Cesarean delivery rate has been associated with considerable financial burden and has increased the risk otherwise uncommon serious complications such as placenta accreta disorders and uterine rupture. In addition to primary prevention of Cesarean delivery, trial of labor after cesarean section is one of the most successful strategies to reduce Cesarean deliveries and minimize risks associated with higher order Cesarean deliveries. This guideline appraises patient selection strategies and use of prediction model to promote counseling and enhance safety in women considering vaginal birth after Cesarean.

Can assessing the angle of progression before labor onset assist to predict vaginal birth after cesarean?: A prospective cohort observational study

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether pre-labor measurement of the angle of progression (AOP) can assist in predicting a successful vaginal birth after cesarean in women without a previous vaginal birth.

METHODS

A prospective observational cohort study performed in a single tertiary center including women at term with a single previous cesarean delivery (CD), without prior vaginal births, who desire a trial of labor. Transperineal ultrasound was used to measure the AOP before the onset of labor. The managing staff in the delivery suite was blinded to the ultrasound measurements. Clinical data and delivery outcome were retrieved from medical records. The study was approved by the institutional ethics committee (KMC 0117-10).

RESULTS

Of the 111 women included in the study, 67 (60.4%) had a successful vaginal birth after CD. Women were sonographically assessed at a median of 3 days [interquartile range (IQR) 1-3 days] prior to delivery. The median AOP was significantly narrower in women who eventually underwent a CD than in those who delivered vaginally (88°, IQR 78-96° vs. 99°, IQR 89-107°, respectively; p < .001). An AOP >98° (derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve) was associated with a successful vaginal birth after CD in 87.5% of women. Multivariable regression analysis demonstrated that each additional 1° in the AOP increases the chance for a successful vaginal birth after CD by 6%.

CONCLUSIONS

Pre-labor AOP may be a useful sonographic tool for predicting vaginal birth after CD and can assist in consulting primiparous women with a prior CD opting for a trial of labor.

Determinants of early neonatal outcomes after emergency cesarean delivery at Hawassa University comprehensive specialised hospital, Hawassa, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Neonatal mortality after cesarean delivery is three folds higher than mortality after vaginal births. Post cesarean early neonatal outcomes are associated with preoperative and intraoperative fetomaternal factors which are preventable in the majority of cases.

OBJECTIVE

To identify determinants of early neonatal outcomes after emergency cesarean delivery at Hawassa University Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Hawassa, Southern Ethiopia.

METHOD

Institution based cross sectional study was conducted on 270 emergency cesarean deliveries. Data were collected by using a pretested questionnaire by trained data collectors. Descriptive analysis was used to see the nature of the characteristics of interests. Pearson chi-square-test was used to check presence of association between independent and outcome variables. Bivariate analysis was used to sort out variables at p values less than 0.05 for multivariate logistic regression. Significance level was obtained using odds ratio with 95% CI and p value < 0.05.

RESULTS

The prevalence of adverse early neonatal outcome after emergency cesarean delivery was 26.7%. Around 11% of newborns had low (<7) fifth minute Apgar score and more than one-third (34.8%) of them admitted to neonatal intensive care unit for more than 24 hours. Fifteen (5.6%) newborns died within their first seven days of life. Neonates with a preoperative meconium-stained amniotic fluid and low birth weight (< 2500 grams) had greater odds of having adverse early neonatal outcome with (AOR = 6.37; 95% CI: 2.64, 15.34) and (AOR = 14.00; 95% CI: 3.64, 53.84) respectively.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of adverse early neonatal outcome is high in this study and meconium-stained amniotic fluid during labor as well as low birth weight were the leading predictors of adverse early neonatal outcome during emergency cesarean delivery.

Correlation Between Previous Caesarean Section and Adverse Maternal Outcomes Accordingly With Robson Classification: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: The increasing rates of Caesarean section (CS) beyond the WHO standards (10–15%) pose a significant global health concern.

Objective: Systematic review and meta-analysis to identify an association between CS history and maternal adverse outcomes for the subsequent pregnancy and delivery among women classified in Robson classification (RC).

Search Strategy: PubMed/Medline, EbscoHost, ProQuest, Embase, Web of Science, BIOSIS, MEDLINE, and Russian Science Citation Index databases were searched from 2008 to 2018.

Selection Criteria: Based on Robson classification, studies reporting one or more of the 14 adverse maternal outcomes were considered eligible for this review.

Data Collection: Study design data, interventions used, CS history, and adverse maternal outcomes were extracted.

Main Results: From 4,084 studies, 28 (n = 1,524,695 women) met the inclusion criteria. RC group 5 showed the highest proportion among deliveries followed by RC10, RC7, and RC8 (67.71, 32.27, 0.02, and 0.001%). Among adverse maternal outcomes, hysterectomy had the highest association after preterm delivery OR = 3.39 (95% CI 1.56–7.36), followed by Severe Maternal Outcomes OR = 2.95 (95% CI 1.00–8.67). We identified over one and a half million pregnant women, of whom the majority were found to belong to RC group 5.

Conclusions: Previous CS was observed to be associated with adverse maternal outcomes for the subsequent pregnancies. CS rates need to be monitored given the prospective risks which may occur for maternal and child health in subsequent births.

Pregnancy outcomes and associated factors for uterine rupture: an 8 years population-based retrospective study

Background

Uterine rupture is an obstetrical emergency with serious undesired complications for laboring mothers resulting in fatal maternal and neonatal outcomes. The aim of this study was to assess the incidence of uterine rupture, its association with previous uterine surgery and vaginal birth after caesarean section (VBAC), and the maternal and perinatal implications.

Methods

This is a population-based retrospective study. All pregnant women treated for ruptured uterus in one center between 2013 and 2020 were included. Their information retrieved from the medical records department were reviewed retrospectively.

Results

A total of 209,112 deliveries were included and 41 cases of uterine rupture were identified. The incidence of uterine rupture was 1.96/10000 births. Among the 41 cases, 16 (39.0%) had maternal and fetal complications. There were no maternal deaths secondary to uterine rupture, while perinatal fatality related to uterine rupture was 7.3%. Among all cases, 38 (92.7%) were scarred uterus and 3 (7.3%) were unscarred uterus. The most common cause of uterine rupture was previous cesarean section, while cases with a history of laparoscopic myomectomy were more likely to have serious adverse outcomes, such as fetal death. 24 (59.0%) of the ruptures occurred in anterior lower uterine segment. Changes in Fetal heart rate monitoring were the most reliable signs for rupture.

Conclusions

Incidence of uterine rupture in the study area, Shanghai, China was consistent with developed countries. Further improvements in obstetric care and enhanced collaboration with referring health facilities were needed to ensure maternal and perinatal safety.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12884-022-04415-6.

Nationwide implementation of a decision aid on vaginal birth after cesarean: a before and after cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Woman with a history of a previous cesarean section (CS) can choose between an elective repeat CS (ERCS) and a trial of labor (TOL), which can end in a vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC) or an unplanned CS. Guidelines describe women's rights to make an informed decision between an ERCS or a TOL. However, the rates of TOL and vaginal birth after CS varies greatly between and within countries. The objective of this study is to asses nation-wide implementation of counselling with a decision aid (DA) including a prediction model, on intended delivery compared to care as usual. We hypothesize that this may result in a reduction in practice variation without an increase in cesarean rates or complications.

METHODS

In a multicenter controlled before and after cohort study we evaluate the effect of nation-wide implementation of a DA. Practice variation was defined as the standard deviation (SD) of TOL percentages.

RESULTS

A total of 27 hospitals and 1,364 women were included. A significant decrease was found in practice variation (SD TOL rates: 0.17 control group vs. 0.10 intervention group following decision aid implementation, p=0.011). There was no significant difference in the ERCS rate or overall CS rates. A 21% reduction in the combined maternal and perinatal adverse outcomes was seen.

CONCLUSIONS

Nationwide implementation of the DA showed a significant reduction in practice variation without an increase in the rate of cesarean section or complications, suggesting an improvement in equality of care.

External validation of a prediction model on vaginal birth after caesarean in a The Netherlands: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Discussing the individual probability of a successful vaginal birth after caesarean (VBAC) can support decision making. The aim of this study is to externally validate a prediction model for the probability of a VBAC in a Dutch population.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study in 12 Dutch hospitals, 586 women intending VBAC were included. Inclusion criteria were singleton pregnancies with a cephalic foetal presentation, delivery after 37 weeks and one previous caesarean section (CS) and preference for intending VBAC. The studied prediction model included six predictors: pre-pregnancy body mass index, previous vaginal delivery, previous CS because of non-progressive labour, Caucasian ethnicity, induction of current labour, and estimated foetal weight ≥90th percentile. The discriminative and predictive performance of the model was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and calibration plots.

RESULTS

The area under the curve was 0.73 (CI 0.69-0.78). The average predicted probability of a VBAC according to the prediction model was 70.3% (range 33-92%). The actual VBAC rate was 71.7%. The calibration plot shows some overestimation for low probabilities of VBAC and an underestimation of high probabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

The prediction model showed good performance and was externally validated in a Dutch population. Hence it can be implemented as part of counselling for mode of delivery in women choosing between intended VBAC or planned CS after previous CS.

Vaginal prostaglandin E2 versus double-balloon catheter for induction of labour for vaginal birth after caesarean section: A retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To compare the success of the double-balloon catheter (DBC) versus prostaglandin gel (PGE2) for induction of labour in women with one previous caesarean section.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study using routinely collected maternity data in a Tertiary NHS hospital, North West England, UK. Women with a live singleton cephalic pregnancy induced using DBC or PGE2 after one previous birth by caesarean section from 1st April 2017 to 1st July 2019 were included. The core outcomes assessed were the inability to perform artificial rupture of membranes, requirement of oxytocin, vaginal birth and uterine rupture.

RESULTS

208 women met the inclusion criteria, 127 were induced using the DBC and 81 using PGE2. The two groups were well matched for demographics and characteristics. Women induced for prolonged ruptured membranes with PGE2 were excluded from the study leaving 127 managed with DBC and 69 with PGE2. There were no significant differences observed between the two groups. Vaginal birth rates were 52.7% for the DBC and 66.6% for the PGE2 (relative risk 0.79 (confidence interval 0.63-1.00); P = 0.05). A single uterine rupture was reported following DBC usage.

CONCLUSIONS

The DBC and PGE2 appear to be equally effective for induction of labour in women with one previous caesarean section.

Vaginal birth after cesarean in women with pre-labor rupture of membranes at term

INTRODUCTION

Women with a successful vaginal birth after cesarean delivery (VBAC) have less morbidity than women undergoing repeat cesarean delivery. Although several scores and models predict VBAC success, none focus on pregnant women with pre-labor rupture of membranes (PROM). We evaluated different clinical variables that might predict the likelihood of VBAC success in women with PROM.

STUDY DESIGN

A retrospective, 5-year study in a large referral center from December 2013 to December 2018. Inclusion criteria were women with singleton pregnancy, at or beyond 37 weeks' gestation, admitted with spontaneous PROM, with one previous cesarean delivery that consented trial of labor. Exclusion criteria were history of two cesarean deliveries, multiple gestations or obstetrical contraindications for TOLAC, including maternal request for repeat cesarean delivery. Variables associated with successful VBA C were identified using multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

Of 302 women in the cohort, 74.8% (226/302) delivered vaginally (successful VBAC) and 25.2% (76/302) by repeat CD (failed TOLAC). Multiple logistic regression showed that duration of PROM-to-delivery time was the only significant factor associated with successful TOLAC (78% delivered vaginally within 24 h and 93.3% within 36 h), while none of the other variables (maternal age, gravidity, BMI, gestational and birthweight at delivery, effacement or station at admission, previous indication for cesarean delivery, time interval between previous and current delivery, presence of meconium-stained liquor, and documented temperature >38 °C) were associated with the prediction of successful VBAC.

CONCLUSION

Women with spontaneous pre-labor PROM and previous cesarean delivery have high success rates of VBAC. The only significant variable associated with successful TOLAC in women with spontaneous PROM at term was the duration of PROM-to-delivery time. Our findings suggest that the success rate of VBAC is likely multifactorial, not-necessarily related to a specific underlying factor, and in the absence of contraindications, a fair trial of labor after cesarean delivery is justified.

Implementation of machine learning models for the prediction of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery

OBJECTIVE

Accurate prediction of vaginal birth after cesarean is crucial for selecting women suitable for a trial of labor after cesarean (TOLAC). We sought to develop a machine learning (ML) model for prediction of TOLAC success and to compare its accuracy with that of the MFMU model.

METHODS

All consecutive singleton TOLAC deliveries from a tertiary academic medical center between February 2017 and December 2018 were included. We developed models using the following ML algorithms: random forest (RF), regularized regression (GLM), and eXtreme gradient-boosted decision trees (XGBoost). For developing the ML models, we disaggregated BMI into height and weight. Similarly, we disaggregated prior arrest of progression into prior arrest of dilatation and prior arrest of descent. We applied a nested cross-validation approach, using 100 random splits of the data to training (80%, 792 samples) and testing sets (20%, 197 samples). We used the area under the precision-recall curve (AUC-PR) as a measure of accuracy.

RESULTS

Nine hundred and eighty-nine TOLAC deliveries were included in the analysis with an observed TOLAC success rate of 85.6%. The AUC-PR in the RF, XGBoost and GLM models were 0.351±0.028, 0.350±0.028 and 0.336±0.024, respectively, compared to 0.325±0.067 for the MFMU-C. The algorithms performed significantly better than the MFMU-C (p-values = .0002, .0004, .0393 for RF, XGBoost, GLM respectively). In the XGBoost model, eight variables were sufficient for accurate prediction. In all ML models, previous vaginal delivery and height were among the three most important predictors of TOLAC success. Prior arrest of descent contributed to prediction more than prior arrest of dilatation, maternal height contributed more than weight.

CONCLUSION

All ML models performed significantly better than the MFMU-C. In the XGBoost model, eight variables were sufficient for accurate prediction. Prior arrest of descent and maternal height contribute to prediction more than prior arrest of dilation and maternal weight.

Establishment of an antepartum predictive scoring model to identify candidates for vaginal birth after cesarean

Background

Evidence-based medicine has shown that successful vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC) is associated with fewer complications than an elective repeat cesarean. Although spontaneous vaginal births and reductions in cesarean delivery (CD) rates have been advocated, the risk factors for VBAC complications remain unclear and failed trials of labor (TOL) can lead to adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Methods

To construct an antepartum predictive scoring model for VBAC. Retrospective analysis of charts from 1062 women who underwent TOL at no less than 28 gestational weeks with vertex singletons and no more than one prior CD.

Results

We constructed our scoring model based on the following variables: maternal age, previous vaginal delivery, interdelivery interval (time between prior cesarean and the following delivery), presence of prior cesarean TOL, dystocia as prior CD indication, intertuberous diameter, maternal predelivery body mass index, gestational age at delivery, estimated fetal weight, and hypertensive disorders. Previous vaginal delivery was the most influential variable. The nomogram showed an area under the curve of 77.7% (95% confidence interval, 73.8–81.5%; sensitivity, 78%; specificity, 70%; cut-off, 13 points). The Kappa value to judge the consistency of the results between the predictive model and the actual results was 0.71(95% confidence interval 0.65–0.77) indicating strong consistency. We used the cut-off to divide the VBAC women into two groups according to the success of the TOL. The maternal and neonatal outcomes such as labor time, number of deliveries by midwives, postpartum hemorrhage, uterine rupture, neonatal asphyxia, puerperal infection were significantly different between the two groups.

Conclusions

Our predictive scoring model incorporates easily ascertainable variables and can be used to personalize antepartum counselling for successful TOLs after cesareans.

Prediction of vaginal birth after cesarean deliveries using machine learning

BACKGROUND

Efforts to reduce cesarean delivery rates to 12-15% have been undertaken worldwide. Special focus has been directed towards parturients who undergo a trial of labor after cesarean delivery to reduce the burden of repeated cesarean deliveries. Complication rates are lowest when a vaginal birth is achieved and highest when an unplanned cesarean delivery is performed, which emphasizes the need to assess, in advance, the likelihood of a successful vaginal birth after cesarean delivery. Vaginal birth after cesarean delivery calculators have been developed in different populations; however, some limitations to their implementation into clinical practice have been described. Machine-learning methods enable investigation of large-scale datasets with input combinations that traditional statistical analysis tools have difficulty processing.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of using machine-learning methods to predict a successful vaginal birth after cesarean delivery.

STUDY DESIGN

The electronic medical records of singleton, term labors during a 12-year period in a tertiary referral center were analyzed. With the use of gradient boosting, models that incorporated multiple maternal and fetal features were created to predict successful vaginal birth in parturients who undergo a trial of labor after cesarean delivery. One model was created to provide a personalized risk score for vaginal birth after cesarean delivery with the use of features that are available as early as the first antenatal visit; a second model was created that reassesses this score after features are added that are available only in proximity to delivery.

RESULTS

A cohort of 9888 parturients with 1 previous cesarean delivery was identified, of which 75.6% of parturients (n=7473) attempted a trial of labor, with a success rate of 88%. A machine-learning-based model to predict when vaginal delivery would be successful was developed. When features that are available at the first antenatal visit are used, the model showed a receiver operating characteristic curve with area under the curve of 0.745 (95% confidence interval, 0.728-0.762) that increased to 0.793 (95% confidence interval, 0.778-0.808) when features that are available in proximity to the delivery process were added. Additionally, for the later model, a risk stratification tool was built to allocate parturients into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups for failed trial of labor after cesarean delivery. The low- and medium-risk groups (42.4% and 25.6% of parturients, respectively) showed a success rate of 97.3% and 90.9%, respectively. The high-risk group (32.1%) had a vaginal delivery success rate of 73.3%. Application of the model to a cohort of parturients who elected a repeat cesarean delivery (n=2145) demonstrated that 31% of these parturients would have been allocated to the low- and medium-risk groups had a trial of labor been attempted.

CONCLUSION

Trial of labor after cesarean delivery is safe for most parturients. Success rates are high, even in a population with high rates of trial of labor after cesarean delivery. Application of a machine-learning algorithm to assign a personalized risk score for a successful vaginal birth after cesarean delivery may help in decision-making and contribute to a reduction in cesarean delivery rates. Parturient allocation to risk groups may help delivery process management.

Caesarean section in women following an abdominal myomectomy: a choice or a need?

Delivery options following both open and laparoscopic myomectomy remains a controversial topic and opinions vary between obstetricians and gynaecologists. The historical advice of planned caesarean section before 39-weeks persists despite the movement towards the minimal access approach for myomectomy. The main concern remains the small, but potentially catastrophic risk of uterine rupture. Unfortunately, there remains a paucity of data assessing factors that can affect the uterine integrity following laparoscopic myomectomy, such as number, size and type of fibroids, uterine cavity breach and electro-cautery usage. Despite this, the cited 1% overall risk of rupture following myomectomy is similar to the quoted risk following trial of labour after caesarean section, and a successful and safe vaginal delivery can be achieved in as high as 90%. Patient choice and informed consent are essential in the holistic approach to managing these women and safely supporting their delivery choices.

Trial of labor after cesarean in older women who never delivered vaginally

OBJECTIVE

Maternal age is an established determinant of successful trial of labor after cesarean (TOLAC). While an increasing proportion of parturients are aged 40 years and older, and previously underwent a cesarean section, little data regarding TOLAC success for this age group is available. This study assessed TOLAC success, and its associated characteristics, among women >40 years who never delivered vaginally.

STUDY DESIGN

A retrospective case-control study of all women who never delivered vaginally aged ≥40 years with a history of previous cesarean delivery, who delivered at our hospital during 2006-2017. Maternal, neonatal, and delivery characteristics were compared between women with successful and unsuccessful TOLAC.

RESULTS

Of 335 older women who never delivered vaginally with a history of one cesarean delivery, 61 (18.2 %) elected TOLAC (18.2 %); the median age was 41[40-42] years and the inter-delivery interval 34 [25-50] months. Overall, 38/61 (62.3 %) had a successful TOLAC. Women with successful TOLAC had a higher rate of a non-recurrent indication for cesarean delivery in their previous cesarean delivery (42.1 % vs. 13.0 %, P = 0.01), whereas dysfunctional labor at previous delivery was more common in the failed TOLAC group (47.8 % vs. 15.8 %, P = 0.007). Failed TOLAC was associated with the presence of gestational diabetes (13.0 % vs. 0 %, P = 0.02) and having a comorbidity (47.8 % vs. 21.0 %, P = 0.02). Induction of labor at TOLAC was more common in the failed TOLAC group (34.8 % vs. 2.6 %, P < 0.001). Birthweight was higher in the failed TOLAC group (3330 vs. 3107 g, P = 0.04), as well as the birthweight difference between deliveries (212 g vs. 82 g, P = 0.03). Neonatal and maternal outcomes were comparable between groups, except for longer length of stay (5 vs. 4 days, P = 0.04) in the failed TOLAC group. In a multivariable logistic regression analysis, only two factors were independently associated with TOLAC failure: previous cesarean delivery due to dysfunctional labor (OR [95 % CI]: 13.40 (1.29, 138.71), P = 0.03) and higher inter-delivery birthweight difference (OR [95 % CI]: 1.18 (1.11, 1.39), P = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

TOLAC in older women who never delivered vaginally is associated with a moderate success rate. The indication for cesarean delivery at the first delivery and inter-delivery birthweight difference were identified as having strong predictive value for TOLAC outcome.

Effect of epidural analgesia in trial of labor after cesarean on maternal and neonatal outcomes in China: a multicenter, prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The trial of labor after cesarean section (TOLAC) is a relatively new technique in mainland of China, and epidural analgesia is one of the risk factors for uterine rupture. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of epidural analgesia on primary labor outcome [success rate of vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC)], parturient complications and neonatal outcomes after TOLAC in Chinese multiparas based on a strictly uniform TOLAC indication, management and epidural protocol.

METHODS

A total of 423 multiparas undergoing TOLAC were enrolled in this study from January 2017 to February 2018. Multiparas were divided into two groups according to whether they received epidural analgesia (study group, N = 263) or not (control group, N = 160) during labor. Maternal delivery outcomes and neonatal characteristics were recorded and evaluated using univariate analysis, multivariable logistic regression and propensity score matching (PSM).

RESULTS

The success rate of VBAC was remarkably higher (85.55% vs. 69.38%, p < 0.01) in study group. Epidural analgesia significantly shortened initiating lactation period and declined Visual Analogue Score (VAS). It also showed more superiority in neonatal umbilical arterial blood pH value. After matching by PSM, multivariable logistic regression revealed that the correction of confounding factors including epidural analgesia, cervical Bishop score at admission and spontaneous onset of labor were still shown as promotion probability in study group (OR = 4.480, 1.360, and 10.188, respectively; 95%CI = 2.025-10.660, 1.113-1.673, and 2.875-48.418, respectively; p < 0.001, p = 0.003, and p < 0.001, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Epidural analgesia could reduce labor pain, and no increased risk of postpartum bleeding or uterine rupture, as well as adverse effects in newborns were observed. The labor duration of multiparas was increased, but within acceptable range. In summary, epidural analgesia may be safe for both mother and neonate in the three studied hospitals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Chineses Clinical Trial Register, ChiCTR-ONC-17010654. Registered February 16th, 2017.

Development of caesarean section prediction models: secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study in two sub-Saharan African countries

Background

Caesarean section is recommended in situations in which vaginal birth presents a greater likelihood of adverse maternal or perinatal outcomes than normal. However, it is associated with a higher risk of complications, especially when performed without a clear medical indication. Since labour attendants have no standardised clinical method to assist in this decision, statistical tools developed based on multiple labour variables may be an alternative. The objective of this paper was to develop and evaluate the accuracy of models for caesarean section prediction using maternal and foetal characteristics collected at admission and through labour.

Method

This is a secondary analysis of the World Health Organization’s Better Outcomes in Labour Difficulty prospective cohort study in two sub-Saharan African countries. Data were collected from women admitted for labour and childbirth in 13 hospitals in Nigeria as well as Uganda between 2014 and 2015. We applied logistic regression to develop different models to predict caesarean section, based on the time when intrapartum assessment was made. To evaluate discriminatory capacity of the various models, we calculated: area under the curve, diagnostic accuracy, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, sensitivity and specificity.

Results

A total of 8957 pregnant women with 12.67% of caesarean births were used for model development. The model based on labour admission characteristics showed an area under the curve of 78.70%, sensitivity of 63.20%, specificity of 78.68% and accuracy of 76.62%. On the other hand, the models that applied intrapartum assessments performed better, with an area under the curve of 93.66%, sensitivity of 80.12%, specificity of 89.26% and accuracy of 88.03%.

Conclusion

It is possible to predict the likelihood of intrapartum caesarean section with high accuracy based on labour characteristics and events. However, the accuracy of this prediction is considerably higher when based on information obtained throughout the course of labour.

Using healthcare failure mode and effect analysis as a method of vaginal birth after caesarean section management

Aims and objectives

This research was conducted to explore the effectiveness of employing the healthcare failure mode and effect analysis method in the management of trial of labour after caesarean, with the aims of increasing vaginal birth after caesarean section rate and reducing potential risks that might cause severe complications.

Background

Previously high caesarean section rate in China and the “two children” policy leads to the situation where multiparas are faced with the choice of another caesarean or trial of labour after caesarean. Despite evidences showing the benefits of vaginal birth after caesarean, obstetricians and midwives in China tend to be conservative due to limited experience and insufficient clinical routines. Thus, its management needs further optimisation in order to make the practice safe and sound.

Design

A prospective quality improvement programme using the healthcare failure mode and effect analysis.

Methods

With the structured methodology of healthcare failure mode and effect analysis, we determined core processes of antepartum and intrapartum management, conducted risk priority numbers and devised remedial protocols for failure modes with high risks. The programme was then implemented as a clinical routine under the agreement of the institutional review board and vaginal birth after caesarean success rates were compared before and after the quality improvement programme, both descriptively and statistically. Standards for Quality Improvement Reporting Excellence 2.0 checklist was chosen on reporting the study process.

Results

Seventy failure modes in seven core processes were identified in the management process, with 14 redressed for actions. The 1‐year follow‐up trial of labour after caesarean and vaginal birth after caesarean rate was increased compared with the previous 3 years, with a vaginal birth after caesarean rate of 86.36%, whereas the incidence of uterine rupture was not compromised.

Conclusions

The application of healthcare failure mode and effect analysis can not only promote trial of labour after caesarean and vaginal birth after caesarean rate, but also maintaining a low risk of uterine rupture.

Relevance to clinical practice

This modified vaginal birth after caesarean management protocol has been shown effective in increasing its successful rate, which can be continued for further comparison of severe complications to the previous practice.

Factors associated with successful vaginal birth after a cesarean section: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Evidence for the relationship between maternal and perinatal factors and the success of vaginal birth after cesarean section (VBAC) is conflicting. We aimed to systematically analyze published data on maternal and fetal factors for successful VBAC.

METHODS

A comprehensive search of Medline, Embase, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, from each database's inception to March 16, 2018. Observational studies, identifying women with a trial of labor after one previous low-transverse cesarean section were included. Two reviewers independently abstracted the data. Meta-analysis was performed using the random-effects model. Risk of bias was assessed by the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale.

RESULTS

We included 94 eligible observational studies (239,006 pregnant women with 163,502 VBAC). Factors were associated with successful VBAC with the following odds ratios (OR;95%CI): age (0.92;0.86-0.98), obesity (0.50;0.39-0.64), diabetes (0.50;0.42-0.60), hypertensive disorders complicating pregnancy (HDCP) (0.54;0.44-0.67), Bishop score (3.77;2.17-6.53), labor induction (0.58;0.50-0.67), macrosomia (0.56;0.50-0.64), white race (1.39;1.26-1.54), previous vaginal birth before cesarean section (3.14;2.62-3.77), previous VBAC (4.71;4.33-5.12), the indications for the previous cesarean section (cephalopelvic disproportion (0.54;0.36-0.80), dystocia or failure to progress (0.54;0.41-0.70), failed induction (0.56;0.37-0.85), and fetal malpresentation (1.66;1.38-2.01)). Adjusted ORs were similar.

CONCLUSIONS

Diabetes, HDCP, Bishop score, labor induction, macrosomia, age, obesity, previous vaginal birth, and the indications for the previous CS should be considered as the factors affecting the success of VBAC.

The effect of the use of a decision aid with individual risk estimation on the mode of delivery after a caesarean section: A prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

After one previous caesarean section (CS), pregnant women can deliver by elective repeat CS or have a trial of labor which can end in a vaginal birth after caesarean (VBAC) or an unplanned CS. Despite guidelines describing women's rights to make an informed choice, trial of labor and VBAC rates vary greatly worldwide. Many women are inadequately informed due to caregivers' fear of an increase in CS rates in a high VBAC rate setting. We compared counseling with a decision aid (DA) including a prediction model on VBAC to care as usual. We hypothesize that counselling with the DA does not decrease VBAC rates. In addition, we aimed to study the effects on unplanned CS rate, patient involvement in decision-making and elective repeat CS rates.

METHODS

We performed a prospective cohort study. From 2012 to 2014, 483 women in six hospitals, where the DA was used (intervention group), were compared with 441 women in six matched hospitals (control group). Women with one previous CS, pregnant of a singleton in cephalic presentation, delivering after 37 weeks 0 days were eligible for inclusion.

RESULTS

There was no significant difference in VBAC rates between the intervention (45%) and control group (46%) (adjusted odds ratio 0,92 (95% Confidence interval 0.69-1.23)). In the intervention group more women (42%) chose an elective repeat CS compared to the control group (31%) (adjusted odds ratio 1.6 (95% Confidence interval 1.18-2.17)). Of women choosing trial of labor, in the intervention group 77% delivered vaginally compared to 67% in the control group, resulting in an unplanned CS adjusted odds ratio of 0,57 (0.40-0.82) in the intervention group. In the intervention group, more women reported to be involved in decision-making (98% vs. 68%, P< 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Implementing a decision aid with a prediction model for risk selection suggests unchanged VBAC rates, but 40% reduction in unplanned CS rates, increase in elective repeat CS and improved patient involvement in decision-making.

Establishment and validation of a prediction model for vaginal delivery after cesarean and its pregnancy outcomes-Based on a prospective study

OBJECTIVE

To explore factors that can be used to predict successful vaginal births after cesarean (VBAC) and its outcome.

METHODS

This is a prospective study involving women with a previous low-segment cesarean section, singleton pregnancy and cephalic presentation who desire for vaginal trial delivery. Delivery modes were observed and the pregnancy outcomes were followed up. The data were analyzed to identify the factors associated with the success of vaginal births after cesarean (VBAC). Then, there were elaborated the models, and their predictive capacity was determined by receiver-operator curve (ROC).

RESULTS

The multivariate logistic regression showed Bishop's score and spontaneous labour independently influenced vaginal births after cesarean (VBAC) success. The prediction model is established and validated. The fitting degree and prediction accuracy of the model is good. The vaginal births after cesarean (VBAC) group had less postpartum hemorrhage (Median 270 ml vs. 300 ml, P < 0.05), a lower puerperal infection rate (1.62% vs 5.88%, P < 0.01), and shorter postpartum hospitalization (Median 2 days vs. 3 days, P < 0.01) than the trial of labor after cesarean (TOLAC)-failure groups. It also had less postpartum hemorrhage (Median 270 ml vs. 320 ml, P < 0.01), a lower puerperal infection rate (1.62% vs 6.23%, P < 0.05), and shorter postpartum hospitalization (Median 2 days vs. 3 days, P < 0.01) than the elective repeat cesarean section (ERCS) groups. The use of labor analgesia in the vaginal births after cesarean (VBAC) group had no effect on pregnancy outcomes.

CONCLUSION

The predictive factors are conducive to making rational choices about delivery mode and should improve pregnancy outcomes.

Trial of labor after cesarean (TOLAC) in women with premature rupture of membranes. J Matern Fetal Neonatal Med 2019;33:2976-2982. [PMID: 30652525 DOI: 10.1080/14767058.2019.1566312]

Introduction: The aim of this study was to assess the success rate of a trial of labor after a previous cesarean section (TOLAC) in the settings of premature rupture of membranes (PROM) and to compare conservative management with spontaneous labor and induction of labor.Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study conducted in a single tertiary care center between January 2011 and March 2017. Women with singleton pregnancy and a previous cesarean section (CS) who presented with PROM and underwent TOLAC were included. Outcomes and rate of successful vaginal delivery after induction of labor were compared to conservative treatment and spontaneous labor.Results: Among 830 women who met the inclusion criteria, 723 (87.1%) had a spontaneous onset of labor following PROM and 107 (12.9%) had an induction of labor. The rate of successful TOLAC was similar between the groups (75.7 vs. 81.6%, respectively, p = .22). However, induction of labor was associated with an increased risk for uterine rupture (1.87 vs. 0.96%, p < .001), operative complications (6.7 vs. 2.3%, p < .001), and composite maternal postpartum complications (21.4 vs. 10.7%, respectively, p = .014) compared to conservative management with spontaneous initiation of labor. There was no difference in neonatal outcome between the groups.Conclusion: Induction of labor following PROM in women with a previous CS is associated with high successful vaginal delivery rate. However, the risk for uterine rupture and operative and maternal complications is significantly increased compared to spontaneous initiation of labor.

Development of a Modified Score System as Prediction Model for Successful Vaginal Birth After Cesarean Delivery

This study was designed to establish a modified prediction score system to improve the safety and success rate of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery (VBAC). We recruited 406 patients (between January 2012 and December 2016) and generated a modified score system in predicting the success rate of VBAC. All patients were required to sign informed consent forms. There were 87.2% of patients who had successful VBAC deliveries and 12.8% patients who had repeated cesarean sections. We conducted multivariable logistic regression and found seven variables that were associated with VBAC success, including previous primary indication of cesarean delivery (odds ratio (OR), 2.1; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.4-3.0), previous vaginal birth history (OR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.8-3.8), < 40 years of age (OR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.2-3.3), < 20 kg weight gain (OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.2-2.3), no labor induction (OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.5-2.9), high score of pelvic/birth weight (OR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-2.1), and Bishop score (OR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.2-1.4). After adjustment for optimism, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) was 0.849 (95% CI, 0.78-0.89), and the modified VBAC score was positively correlated with the success rate of trial of labor after cesarean delivery (TOLAC). A valid and useful score system was established to predict VBAC success rate.

Vaginal Birth After Previous Cesarean Birth: A Comparison of 3 National Guidelines

Importance

Vaginal birth after previous cesarean birth (VBAC) is a reasonable option for many women with previous cesarean delivery.

Objective

The aim of this study was to summarize evidence and compare recommendations from national guidelines regarding VBAC.

Evidence Acquisition

A descriptive review of 3 national guidelines on VBAC was conducted: Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists on "Birth After Previous Caesarean Birth," American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists on "Vaginal Birth After Cesarean Delivery," and Society of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists of Canada on "Guidelines for Vaginal Birth After Previous Caesarean Birth." These guidelines were summarized and compared in terms of the recommended antenatal and intrapartum care of women. Recommendations and strength of evidence were also reviewed based on method of reporting.

Results

The variations mentioned on the different guidelines reflect the heterogeneity of the published data on the management of VBAC during the antenatal and intrapartum care.

Conclusions

Evidence-based medicine could support the conception of international recommendations for VBAC, which may improve both safety and efficacy of this procedure.

Simulation model of the relationship between cesarean section rates and labor duration

Cesarean delivery is the most common major abdominal surgery in many parts of the world, and it accounts for nearly one-third of births in the United States. For a patient who requires a C-section, allowing prolonged labor is not recommended because of the increased risk of infection. However, for a patient who is capable of a successful vaginal delivery, performing an unnecessary C-section can have a substantial adverse impact on the patient's future health. We develop two stochastic simulation models of the delivery process for women in labor; and our objectives are (i) to represent the natural progression of labor and thereby gain insights concerning the duration of labor as it depends on the dilation state for induced, augmented, and spontaneous labors; and (ii) to evaluate the Friedman curve and other labor-progression rules, including their impact on the C-section rate and on the rates of maternal and fetal complications. To use a shifted lognormal distribution for modeling the duration of labor in each dilation state and for each type of labor, we formulate a percentile-matching procedure that requires three estimated quantiles of each distribution as reported in the literature. Based on results generated by both simulation models, we concluded that for singleton births by nulliparous women with no prior complications, labor duration longer than two hours (i.e., the time limit for labor arrest based on the Friedman curve) should be allowed in each dilation state; furthermore, the allowed labor duration should be a function of dilation state.

An integrated model with classification criteria to predict vaginal delivery success after cesarean section

Background: Cesarean delivery (CD) is the most frequently performed surgical procedure worldwide. Trial of labor after cesarean (TOLAC) is associated with an increase in perinatal complications related to uterine rupture. However, in general, vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC) is considered safe and women have less morbidity than those who undergo an elective repeat CD.Objective: To develop an integrated model with the best performance criteria for predicting vaginal delivery success after CD.Study design: Retrospective observational study including 2367 women who underwent a TOLAC. A predictive model using classification and regression tree modeling was constructed to predict vaginal delivery using maternal demographic, medical history, and labor predictors.Results: Vaginal delivery was best predicted by spontaneous onset of labor, estimated fetal weight <3775 g, maternal body mass index <25, previous CD as an elective or for fetal distress reasons, and interdelivery interval <2290 days. The algorithm showed a sensitivity of 75%, a specificity of 53%, and the area under the curve was 0.69.Conclusions: The classification and regression tree algorithm can be used to develop a predictive model for the success of TOLAC.

Blinded ultrasound fetal biometry at 36 weeks and risk of emergency Cesarean delivery in a prospective cohort study of low-risk nulliparous women

OBJECTIVES

To compare the association between risk of emergency Cesarean delivery (CD) and non-customized vs customized ultrasound estimated fetal weight (EFW) at 36 weeks' gestation, determine whether addition of ultrasound EFW to a model based on maternal characteristics alone improved prediction of emergency CD, assess the screening performance of a multivariable model using both EFW and maternal characteristics to predict emergency CD, and determine whether women at high predicted risk of emergency CD based on this model had higher risk of maternal and perinatal morbidity compared with screen-negative women.

METHODS

We studied 3047 low-risk (no pre-existing medical conditions or acquired complications of pregnancy) nulliparous women from the prospective Pregnancy Outcome Prediction study (Cambridge, UK) cohort, who underwent ultrasound EFW at ∼36 weeks' gestation. Both the women and their clinicians were blinded to fetal biometry results. Emergency CD was defined as delivery by Cesarean section in pregnancies in which the date of delivery had not been prearranged. Additional candidate predictors of emergency CD evaluated were maternal age, height, body mass index (BMI), weight gain, fetal abdominal circumference growth velocity and fetal sex. External validation of the predictive model was performed using routinely collected data from 55 337 births in Scotland between 2003 and 2008. Women with an estimated risk of emergency CD ≥ 40% were defined as screen positive.

RESULTS

Blinded EFW was associated strongly with the risk of emergency CD (coefficient for increase of 1 SD in EFW, 0.39 (95% CI, 0.30-0.48); odds ratio (OR), 1.48 (95% CI, 1.35-1.62)). The coefficient for customized EFW was similar (0.42 (95% CI, 0.33-0.51); OR, 1.53 (95% CI, 1.39-1.67)); hence, for simplicity, non-customized EFW was employed subsequently. A multivariable logistic regression model combining maternal characteristics (age, height, BMI and weight gain between 12 and 36 weeks) was moderately predictive of emergency CD (area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC) = 0.68). Addition of blinded EFW to the model increased the AUC to 0.71 and improved prediction (likelihood-ratio test P < 0.0001). Based on this model, 189 (6.2%) women were screen positive and 48% of these delivered by CD. Screen-positive women had elevated risks of severe postpartum hemorrhage (relative risk (RR), 2.49; 95% CI, 1.83-3.38), any adverse neonatal outcome (RR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.22-2.82) and severe adverse neonatal outcome (RR, 4.03; 95% CI, 1.35-12.03) compared with screen-negative women. The risks of these events were also higher compared with women who had a term CD for breech presentation. The model was similarly predictive of the risk of emergency CD and perinatal morbidity when evaluated using the dataset from Scotland.

CONCLUSIONS

Ultrasound EFW at 36 weeks, combined with maternal characteristics, can identify women who are at increased risk of subsequent emergency CD. These women are at increased risk of maternal and perinatal morbidity compared with women at low risk of emergency CD and those having CD for breech presentation at term. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Adolescent Undernutrition: Global Burden, Physiology, and Nutritional Risks

BACKGROUND

Adolescents, comprised of 10-19 year olds, form the largest generation of young people in our history. There are an estimated 1.8 billion adolescents in the world, with 90% residing in low- and middle-income countries. The burden of disease among adolescents has its origins in infectious and injury-related causes, but nutritional deficiencies, suboptimal linear growth, and undernutrition are major public health problems, even as overweight may be on the rise in many contexts. Summary and Key Messages: Girls are most vulnerable to the influences of cultural and gender norms, which often discriminate against them. Dietary patterns and physical activity, in addition to schooling and countervailing social norms for early marriage, influence health and nutritional well-being of adolescents. Nutrient requirements - -including those for energy, protein, iron, calcium, and -others - increase in adolescence to support adequate growth and development. In settings where dietary intakes are suboptimal, anemia and micronutrient deficiencies are high. Endocrine factors are essential for promoting normal adolescent growth and are sensitive to undernutrition. Growth velocity increases during puberty when peak height velocity occurs and catch-up is possible; in girls, about 15-25% of adult height is attained. A premature pregnancy can halt linear growth and increase the risk of adverse birth outcomes. Research is needed to fill the huge data gaps related to nutrition and growth during adolescence, in addition to testing interventions during this second window of opportunity to enhance growth and development, improve human capital, and to end the intergenerational cycle of growth failure.

Validation of prediction model for successful vaginal birth after Cesarean delivery based on sonographic assessment of hysterotomy scar

OBJECTIVE

To validate a prediction model for successful vaginal birth after Cesarean delivery (VBAC) based on sonographic assessment of the hysterotomy scar, in a Swedish population.

METHODS

Data were collected from a prospective cohort study. We recruited non-pregnant women aged 18-35 years who had undergone one previous low-transverse Cesarean delivery at ≥ 37 gestational weeks and had had no other uterine surgery. Participants who subsequently became pregnant underwent transvaginal ultrasound examination of the Cesarean hysterotomy scar at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 and at 19 + 0 to 21 + 6 gestational weeks. Thickness of the myometrium at the thinnest part of the scar area was measured. After delivery, information on pregnancy outcome was retrieved from hospital records. Individual probabilities of successful VBAC were calculated using a previously published model. Predicted individual probabilities were divided into deciles. For each decile, observed VBAC rates were calculated. To assess the accuracy of the prediction model, receiver-operating characteristics curves were constructed and the areas under the curves (AUC) were calculated.

RESULTS

Complete sonographic data were available for 120 women. Eighty (67%) women underwent trial of labor after Cesarean delivery (TOLAC) with VBAC occurring in 70 (88%) cases. The scar was visible in all 80 women at the first-trimester scan and in 54 (68%) women at the second-trimester scan. AUC was 0.44 (95% CI, 0.28-0.60) among all women who underwent TOLAC and 0.51 (95% CI, 0.32-0.71) among those with the scar visible sonographically at both ultrasound examinations.

CONCLUSION

The prediction model demonstrated poor accuracy for prediction of successful VBAC in our Swedish population. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Outcome of the vaginal birth after cesarean section during the second birth order in West Kazakhstan

Background

Vaginal birth after cesarean section (VBAC) increases the chance of subsequent vaginal deliveries and reduces the repeat cesarean section (CS) rate with subsequent postoperative morbidity.

Objectives

To detect the outcome of VBAC during the second birth order in Aktobe region of West Kazakhstan.

Patients and Methods

A total of 832 women eligible for trial of VBAC were included in this study. Women who signed the consent of VBAC were evaluated thoroughly and data such as maternal age, body mass index, height, gestational age at admission, indication of the previous CS, estimated fetal weight, engagement of the fetal head, condition of the membranes, and cervical dilatation were collected. Data collected after delivery include duration from active phase of labor, mode of delivery, fetal, and neonatal outcomes. The collected data analyzed to detect the outcome of trial of VBAC during the second birth order in Aktobe region of West Kazakhstan.

Results

Logistic analysis and odds ratio (OR) showed that body mass index (BMI) ≤25 kg/m² (OR 1.7; P = 0.0004), height ≥150 cm (OR 1.7; P = 0.002), gestational age ≤40 weeks (OR 2.3; P = 0.0001), and inter-delivery interval ≥2 years (OR 1.6; P = 0.008) were significantly associated with successful VBAC. In addition, <2/5 of the fetal head palpable abdominally, station <-2 (OR 1.7; P = 0.0009), cervical dilatation ≥4 cm (OR 1.7; P = 0.003), and duration of active phase of labor ≤7 h (OR 1.6; P = 0.01) were significantly associated with successful VBAC.

Conclusion

VBAC is safe in properly selected cases. BMI ≤25 kg/m², gestational age ≤40 weeks, inter-delivery interval ≥2 years, and fetal head <-2 station increase the success of VBAC. Prolonged active phase of labor >7 h and the need for labor augmentation decrease the chance of VBAC success.

Caesarean section in a primary health facility in Ghana: Clinical indications and feto-maternal outcomes

There is great concern about the increasing rise in the rate of caesarean section in both developed and developing countries. This study was to ascertain the prevalence and compare outcomes of elective and emergency caesarean sections among women who deliver at the University of Cape Coast Hospital, Ghana. This retrospective study reviewed records of 645 women who delivered through caesarean sections during the period of January 2014 and December 2015. The prevalence of caesarean section was 26.9%. There was a significantly higher rate of adverse fetal outcomes (P=0.016) among babies born through emergency caesarean section. There were 12 (1.9%) women who had caesarean section done based on maternal request. The caesarean section rate found in this study was high. The lack of availability of technology for diagnosing fetal distress found in this study could possibly lead to over diagnosis of fetal distress. Thus availability of such diagnostic technology could reduce the high caesarean section rate. The high numbers of women requesting caesarean section without medical indication should be investigated and the motivation factors identified so as to curb the practice.

Labor after cesarean delivery managed without induction or augmentation of labor

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to describe the perinatal outcomes of women opting for vaginal birth after cesarean delivery (VBAC) managed without induction or augmentation of labor.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of candidates for VBAC at a tertiary center in Japan from April 2003 to March 2012. Women with singleton gestations and one prior low-transverse cesarean delivery who intended VBAC at 36 weeks of gestation were identified as candidates for VBAC and included in the study. Participants were managed without induction or augmentation of labor. Maternal characteristics and perinatal outcomes were obtained from medical records. Factors associated with successful VBAC were analyzed with a multivariable logistic regression model.

RESULTS

Of 333 candidates for VBAC, 242 (72.7%) had vaginal birth, 49 (14.7%) had repeat cesarean delivery with spontaneous labor, and 42 (12.6%) had repeat cesarean delivery without spontaneous labor. The rate of uterine rupture was 0.3% (1/333). Prior vaginal delivery and nonrecurring indications for prior cesarean delivery were associated with successful VBAC.

CONCLUSIONS

Management of candidates for VBAC without induction or augmentation of labor resulted in a high VBAC rate and favorable perinatal outcomes. Such restrictive VBAC policies may be an acceptable alternative to standard management or abandonment of VBAC.

The New "Obstetrical Dilemma": Stunting, Obesity and the Risk of Obstructed Labour

The "obstetrical dilemma" refers to the tight fit between maternal pelvic dimensions and neonatal size at delivery. Most interest traditionally focused on its generic significance for humans, for example our neonatal altriciality and our complex and lengthy birth process. Across contemporary populations, however, the obstetrical dilemma manifests substantial variability, illustrated by differences in the incidence of cephalo-pelvic disproportion, obstructed labour and cesarean section. Beyond accounting for 12% of maternal mortality worldwide, obstructed labour also imposes a huge burden of maternal morbidity, in particular through debilitating birth injuries. This article explores how the double burden of malnutrition and the global obesity epidemic may be reshaping the obstetrical dilemma. First, short maternal stature increases the risk of obstructed labour, while early age at marriage also risks pregnancy before pelvic growth is completed. Second, maternal obesity increases the risk of macrosomic offspring. In some populations, short maternal stature may also promote the risk of gestational diabetes, another risk factor for macrosomic offspring. These nutritional influences are furthermore sensitive to social values relating to issues such as maternal and child nutrition, gender inequality and age at marriage. Secular trends in maternal obesity are substantially greater than those in adult stature, especially in low- and middle-income countries. The association between the dual burden of malnutrition and the obstetrical dilemma is therefore expected to increase, because the obesity epidemic is emerging faster than stunting is being resolved. However, we currently lack objective population-specific data on the association between maternal obesity and birth injuries. Anat Rec, 300:716-731, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

[Labour in women with scarred uterus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: trial of scar and factors influencing the outcome]

OBJECTIVE

Our study aims to identify risks factors associated with failed trial of scar and to set a predictive score of labour in women with scarred uterus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

METHODS

We conducted a multicenter cross-sectional analytic study of patients with scarred uterus in four maternity units in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) from 1 January to 31 December 2013. Logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with failed trial of scar. We set a predictive score based on this model in order to predict trial of scar failure in maternity units in the DRC. ROC curve was used to assess the ability of the set score to identify patients at risk for trial of scar failure. The cut off point for the predictive score was determined on the basis of the Youden-index-based optimal sensitivity and specificity. All the tests in our study were carried out by using a significance threshold of α=0.05.

RESULTS

Two explanatory factors in trial of scar failure were retained. They were the socio-demographic factor (maternal age) and three obstetric factors (fundal height, fetal presentation and premature rupture of membranes). Predictive score was set to predict trial of scar failure. This score was determined based on four elements: maternal age, evaluation of the gestational sac on admission, fundal height and fetal presentation. The minimum score was set at 4 and the maximum score was set at 16. The threshold value was set at 7. A total score greater than or equal to 7 reflects a risk of trial of scar failure.

CONCLUSION

We set a predictive score to predict trial of scar failure. This score was determined based on four elements: maternal age, evaluation of the gestational sac on admission, fundal height and fetal presentation. A total score greater than or equal to 7 reflects a risk of trial of scar failure.

Use of Intracervical Foley Catheter for Induction of Labour in Cases of Previous Caesarean Section: Experience of a single tertiary centre in Oman

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to evaluate rates of success and perinatal complications of labour induction using an intracervical Foley catheter among women with a previous Caesarean delivery at a tertiary centre in Oman.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 68 pregnant women with a history of a previous Caesarean section who were admitted for induction via Foley catheter between January 2011 and December 2013 to the Sultan Qaboos University Hospital, Muscat, Oman. Patient data were collected from electronic and delivery ward records.

RESULTS

Most women were 25-35 years old (76.5%) and 20 women had had one previous vaginal delivery (29.4%). The most common indication for induction of labour was intrauterine growth restriction with oligohydramnios (27.9%). Most women delivered after 40 gestational weeks (48.5%) and there were no neonatal admissions or complications. The majority experienced no complications during the induction period (85.3%), although a few had vaginal bleeding (5.9%), intrapartum fever (4.4%), rupture of the membranes (2.9%) and cord prolapse shortly after insertion of the Foley catheter (1.5%). However, no cases of uterine rupture or scar dehiscence were noted. Overall, the success rate of vaginal birth after a previous Caesarean delivery was 69.1%, with the remaining patients undergoing an emergency Caesarean section (30.9%).

CONCLUSION

The use of a Foley catheter in the induction of labour in women with a previous Caesarean delivery appears a safe option with a good success rate and few maternal and fetal complications.

Sibling Competition & Growth Tradeoffs. Biological vs. Statistical Significance

Early childhood growth has many downstream effects on future health and reproduction and is an important measure of offspring quality. While a tradeoff between family size and child growth outcomes is theoretically predicted in high-fertility societies, empirical evidence is mixed. This is often attributed to phenotypic variation in parental condition. However, inconsistent study results may also arise because family size confounds the potentially differential effects that older and younger siblings can have on young children's growth. Additionally, inconsistent results might reflect that the biological significance associated with different growth trajectories is poorly understood. This paper addresses these concerns by tracking children's monthly gains in height and weight from weaning to age five in a high fertility Maya community. We predict that: 1) as an aggregate measure family size will not have a major impact on child growth during the post weaning period; 2) competition from young siblings will negatively impact child growth during the post weaning period; 3) however because of their economic value, older siblings will have a negligible effect on young children's growth. Accounting for parental condition, we use linear mixed models to evaluate the effects that family size, younger and older siblings have on children's growth. Congruent with our expectations, it is younger siblings who have the most detrimental effect on children's growth. While we find statistical evidence of a quantity/quality tradeoff effect, the biological significance of these results is negligible in early childhood. Our findings help to resolve why quantity/quality studies have had inconsistent results by showing that sibling competition varies with sibling age composition, not just family size, and that biological significance is distinct from statistical significance.

Prediction of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery

OBJECTIVE

To examine factors associated with successful vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC) and to validate a previously established prediction model.

METHODS

In a retrospective study, data were obtained for women with one prior low-transverse cesarean procedure who underwent a trial of labor with a cephalic singleton pregnancy at term at one UK hospital between January 2000 and August 2013. Univariate analysis and logistic regression analysis were used to identify maternal demographic characteristics significantly associated with successful VBAC and factors independently associated with this outcome, respectively. A prediction model was built, and predicted probabilities were compared with observed frequencies. For validation, probabilities were also calculated by a previous prediction model.

RESULTS

Overall, 1463 women formed the cohort. Successful vaginal delivery was achieved in 1050 (71.8%) women. The only factors significantly associated with unsuccessful VBAC were Asian (odds ratio [OR] 1.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14-2.23) or African (OR 1.80, 95% CI 1.23-2.64) ethnic origin, and previous cesarean for failure to progress (OR 6.39, 95% CI 4.81-8.49). The predicted and observed probability of successful VBAC were well correlated (Spearman ρ, 0.905; P=0.002). The established prediction model was less accurate.

CONCLUSION

Previous cesarean performed for failure to progress and Asian/African ethnic origin were associated with unsuccessful VBAC. The performance of a previous prediction model was inferior.

Prognostic models in obstetrics: available, but far from applicable

Health care provision is increasingly focused on the prediction of patients' individual risk for developing a particular health outcome in planning further tests and treatments. There has been a steady increase in the development and publication of prognostic models for various maternal and fetal outcomes in obstetrics. We undertook a systematic review to give an overview of the current status of available prognostic models in obstetrics in the context of their potential advantages and the process of developing and validating models. Important aspects to consider when assessing a prognostic model are discussed and recommendations on how to proceed on this within the obstetric domain are given. We searched MEDLINE (up to July 2012) for articles developing prognostic models in obstetrics. We identified 177 papers that reported the development of 263 prognostic models for 40 different outcomes. The most frequently predicted outcomes were preeclampsia (n = 69), preterm delivery (n = 63), mode of delivery (n = 22), gestational hypertension (n = 11), and small-for-gestational-age infants (n = 10). The performance of newer models was generally not better than that of older models predicting the same outcome. The most important measures of predictive accuracy (ie, a model's discrimination and calibration) were often (82.9%, 218/263) not both assessed. Very few developed models were validated in data other than the development data (8.7%, 23/263). Only two-thirds of the papers (62.4%, 164/263) presented the model such that validation in other populations was possible, and the clinical applicability was discussed in only 11.0% (29/263). The impact of developed models on clinical practice was unknown. We identified a large number of prognostic models in obstetrics, but there is relatively little evidence about their performance, impact, and usefulness in clinical practice so that at this point, clinical implementation cannot be recommended. New efforts should be directed toward evaluating the performance and impact of the existing models.

Adverse airway events in parturient compared with non-parturient patients. Is there a difference? Results from a quality management project

AIM

The fear of airway problems often leads to prolonged attempts to obtain neuroaxial (spinal anesthesia or epidural anesthesia) anesthesia in obstetric anesthesia. The aim of this institutional quality management study was to revisit existing anesthesia care in the obstetric department, focusing on the frequency of delayed or failed neuroaxial anesthesia as well as the risk of airway problems in parturient and non-obstetric patients.

METHODS

The clinical records from 8 consecutive years (2005-2013) were analyzed retrospectively. Cases of cesarean delivery with general anesthesia were analyzed and compared with an age-matched group of female patients undergoing non-obstetric abdominal or gynecological surgery with rapid sequence induction. Poor laryngeal visualization (Cormack-Lehane grade III or IV) and failed intubation were recorded.

RESULTS

The records of 6393 cesarean deliveries including 851 with general anesthesia were analyzed. In 175 cases insufficient or delayed onset of regional anesthesia led to requirement for general anesthesia. The rate of poor laryngoscopic view in parturient women undergoing cesarean delivery was 14/851, and 4/814 in the reference group (P = 0.023). Failed intubation occurred in three patients undergoing cesarean delivery (0.4%) and in one non-obstetric patient (0.1%; P = 0.339).

CONCLUSION

The rate of failed intubations in patients undergoing cesarean delivery may be equivalent to non-obstetric patients. In time-challenging cesarean deliveries, delay of conversion from non-successful neuroaxial anesthesia to general anesthesia in order to avoid adverse airway events does not appear to be justified.

Maternal and obstetrical factors associated with a successful trial of vaginal birth after cesarean section

OBJECTIVE

To detect the maternal and obstetrical factors associated with successful trial of vaginal birth among women with a previous cesarean delivery.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A total of 122 women who were eligible for a trial of labor after cesarean section (TOLAC) according to departmental protocol were included in this comparative prospective study. After informed consent, the women included in this study were subjected to a thorough history to detect maternal and obstetric characteristics and a standard examination to estimate fetal weight, engagement of the fetal head, intra-partum features of fetal membranes, and cervical dilatation. After delivery, data on duration of labor, labor augmentation, mode of delivery, birth outcome, and neonatal intensive care (NICU) admission were recorded and analyzed.

RESULTS

Trial of labor after cesarean section was successful in 72.13% and was unsuccessful in 27.87%. Body mass index (BMI) was significantly lower in the successful TOLAC group compared to the unsuccessful group (23.8±0.03 versus 26.2±0.02 kg/m(2)), and the number of women with BMI >25 kg/m(2) was significantly high in the unsuccessful group; also, mean gestational age was significantly lower in the successful TOLAC group compared to the unsuccessful group (37.5±0.04 versus 38.5±0.03 weeks), and the number of women admitted in labor with gestation ≥40 weeks was significantly high in the unsuccessful group. The number of women admitted with >2/5 of fetal head palpable abdominally and fetal head station ≥-2 was significantly high in the unsuccessful TOLAC group.

CONCLUSION

In carefully selected cases, TOLAC is safe and often successful. Presence of BMI >25 kg/m(2), gestation ≥40 weeks, and vertex station ≥-2 were risk factors for unsuccessful TOLAC.

Variation in caesarean section rates in the US: outliers, damned outliers, and statistics

Gordon C. Smith discusses the study by Katy Kozhimannil and colleagues that examines variations in cesarean section rates in the US and argues for the need for high-quality routine data collection to better understand the reasons for these variations. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.