Keeping phase III tuberculosis trials relevant: Adapting to a rapidly changing landscape

Drug-resistant tuberculosis treatments, the case for a phase III platform trial

Most phase III trials in drug-resistant tuberculosis have either been underpowered to quantify differences in microbiological endpoints or have taken up to a decade to complete. Composite primary endpoints, dominated by differences in treatment discontinuation and regimen changes, may mask important differences in treatment failure and relapse. Although new regimens for drug-resistant tuberculosis appear very effective, resistance to new drugs is emerging rapidly. There is a need for shorter, safer and more tolerable regimens, including those active against bedaquiline-resistant tuberculosis. Transitioning from multiple regimen A versus regimen B trials to a single large phase III platform trial would accelerate the acquisition of robust estimates of relative efficacy and safety. Further efficiencies could be achieved by adopting modern adaptive platform designs. Collaboration among trialists, affected community representatives, funders and regulators is essential for developing such a phase III platform trial for drug-resistant tuberculosis treatment regimens.

What do we talk about when we talk about "equipoise"? Stakeholder interviews assessing the use of equipoise in clinical research ethics

INTRODUCTION

Equipoise, generally defined as uncertainty about the relative effects of the treatments being compared in a trial, is frequently referenced as an ethical standard for the conduct of randomized clinical trials. However, it seems to be defined in several different ways and may be used differently by different individuals. We explored how clinical researchers, chairs of research ethics boards, and philosophers of science define and reason with this term.

METHODS

We completed semi-structured interviews about clinical trial ethics with 15 clinical researchers, 15 research ethics board chairs, and 15 philosophers of science/bioethicists. Each participant was asked a standardized set of 10 questions, 4 of which were specifically about equipoise. All interviews were conducted telephonically and transcribed. Responses were grouped and analysed via a modified grounded theory method.

RESULTS

Forty-three respondents defined equipoise in 7 logically distinct ways, and 2 respondents could not explicitly define it. The most common definition, offered by 14 respondents (31%), defined "equipoise" as a disagreement at the level of a community of physicians. There was significant variability in definitions offered between and within groups. When asked how they would "operationalize" equipoise - i.e. check or test for its presence - respondents provided 7 alternatives, the most common being in relation to a literature review (15/45, 33%). The vast majority of respondents (35/45, 78%) felt the concept was helpful, though many acknowledged that the lack of a clear definition or operationalization was problematic.

CONCLUSION

There is significant variation in definitions of equipoise offered by respondents, suggesting that parties within groups and between groups may be referring to different concepts when they reference "equipoise". This non-uniformity may impact fairness and transparency and opens the door to potential ethical problems in the evaluation of clinical trials - for instance, a patient may understand equipoise very differently than the researchers enrolling her in a trial, which could cause her agreement to participate to be based upon false premises.

Safety, effectiveness, and adherence of a short and all-oral treatment regimen for the treatment of rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis in Niger: a study protocol of a pragmatic randomised clinical trial with stratified block randomisation

BACKGROUND

Rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (RR-TB) treatment requires combination treatment, which frequently causes serious adverse events and globally results in not much more than 60% treatment success. In Niger, a high cure rate was obtained with a RR-TB treatment strategy based on a second-line injectable drug (SLID)-containing Short Treatment Regimen (STR), with linezolid replacing the SLID in patients with ototoxicity. Given the availability of novel anti-tuberculosis drugs, WHO recommends all-oral RR-TB treatment. Considering the high level of success with the Niger treatment strategy, it would only be justified to replace it in case robust evidence shows that the WHO all-oral bedaquiline/linezolid (BDQ/LZD)-containing STR (experimental arm) performs better than the Niger RR-TB treatment strategy, (control arm) in terms of safety, effectiveness and adherence.

METHODS

A pragmatic randomised clinical trial (RCT) using stratified block randomisation, conducted between April 2021 and March 2024, prospectively enrols participants diagnosed with RR-TB in one of the four RR-TB units of the nation. Depending of the month in which patients are diagnosed with RR-TB, patients with FQ-susceptible RR-TB are enrolled in either the experimental arm or control arm.

DISCUSSION

To increase the feasibility of conducting a RCT, embedded in routine activities of all Niger's RR-TB Units, we used a creative trial design. We randomised by monthly blocks, whereby the regimen used changes every month, using the month of RR-TB diagnosis as stratifying variable. This approach was deemed feasible for Niger's national tuberculosis programme, as it simplifies the work of the clinicians running the RR-TB units. Our creative design may serve as an example for other national programs. Findings will inform national and international RR-TB treatment guidelines, and will also strengthen the evidence-base on how to develop robust RR-TB treatment regimens.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Pan African Clinical Trial Register PACTR202203645724919 . Registered on 15 March 2022.

A comparison of clinical development pathways to advance tuberculosis regimen development

BACKGROUND

Current tuberculosis (TB) regimen development pathways are slow and in urgent need of innovation. We investigated novel phase IIc and seamless phase II/III trials utilizing multi-arm multi-stage and Bayesian response adaptive randomization trial designs to select promising combination regimens in a platform adaptive trial.

METHODS

Clinical trial simulation tools were built using predictive and validated parametric survival models of time to culture conversion (intermediate endpoint) and time to TB-related unfavorable outcome (final endpoint). This integrative clinical trial simulation tool was used to explore and optimize design parameters for aforementioned trial designs.

RESULTS

Both multi-arm multi-stage and Bayesian response adaptive randomization designs were able to reliably graduate desirable regimens in ≥ 95% of trial simulations and reliably stop suboptimal regimens in ≥ 90% of trial simulations. Overall, adaptive phase IIc designs reduced patient enrollment by 17% and 25% with multi-arm multi-stage and Bayesian response adaptive randomization designs respectively compared to the conventional sequential approach, while seamless designs reduced study duration by 2.6 and 3.5 years respectively (typically ≥ 8.5 years for standard sequential approach).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we demonstrate that adaptive trial designs are suitable for TB regimen development, and we provide plausible design parameters for a platform adaptive trial. Ultimately trial design and specification of design parameters will depend on clinical trial objectives. To support decision-making for clinical trial designs in contemporary TB regimen development, we provide a flexible clinical trial simulation tool that can be used to explore and optimize design features and parameters.

Rethinking intercurrent events in defining estimands for tuberculosis trials

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Tuberculosis remains one of the leading causes of death from an infectious disease globally. Both choices of outcome definitions and approaches to handling events happening post-randomisation can change the treatment effect being estimated, but these are often inconsistently described, thus inhibiting clear interpretation and comparison across trials.

METHODS

Starting from the ICH E9(R1) addendum's definition of an estimand, we use our experience of conducting large Phase III tuberculosis treatment trials and our understanding of the estimand framework to identify the key decisions regarding how different event types are handled in the primary outcome definition, and the important points that should be considered in making such decisions. A key issue is the handling of intercurrent (i.e. post-randomisation) events (ICEs) which affect interpretation of or preclude measurement of the intended final outcome. We consider common ICEs including treatment changes and treatment extension, poor adherence to randomised treatment, re-infection with a new strain of tuberculosis which is different from the original infection, and death. We use two completed tuberculosis trials (REMoxTB and STREAM Stage 1) as illustrative examples. These trials tested non-inferiority of new tuberculosis treatment regimens versus a control regimen. The primary outcome was a binary composite endpoint, 'favourable' or 'unfavourable', which was constructed from several components.

RESULTS

We propose the following improvements in handling the above-mentioned ICEs and loss to follow-up (a post-randomisation event that is not in itself an ICE). First, changes to allocated regimens should not necessarily be viewed as an unfavourable outcome; from the patient perspective, the potential harms associated with a change in the regimen should instead be directly quantified. Second, handling poor adherence to randomised treatment using a per-protocol analysis does not necessarily target a clear estimand; instead, it would be desirable to develop ways to estimate the treatment effects more relevant to programmatic settings. Third, re-infection with a new strain of tuberculosis could be handled with different strategies, depending on whether the outcome of interest is the ability to attain culture negativity from infection with any strain of tuberculosis, or specifically the presenting strain of tuberculosis. Fourth, where possible, death could be separated into tuberculosis-related and non-tuberculosis-related and handled using appropriate strategies. Finally, although some losses to follow-up would result in early treatment discontinuation, patients lost to follow-up before the end of the trial should not always be classified as having an unfavourable outcome. Instead, loss to follow-up should be separated from not completing the treatment, which is an ICE and may be considered as an unfavourable outcome.

CONCLUSION

The estimand framework clarifies many issues in tuberculosis trials but also challenges trialists to justify and improve their outcome definitions. Future trialists should consider all the above points in defining their outcomes.

Comparing timelines and evidence available to support new TB, HIV, and HCV drug approvals: The same, only different

Background

Tuberculosis (TB), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and hepatitis C virus (HCV) share a global presence and propensity to disproportionately affect marginalized populations. However, over recent decades, many fewer drugs have been brought to market for TB than for the others. Although three new anti-TB drugs have been approved in the US or Europe in the last 10 years, uptake of these drugs has been limited. Using case examples of drugs developed recently for TB, HIV, and HCV, we explore possible reasons. We examine the use and effect of regulatory pathways intended to address weak economic incentives in the face of urgent, unmet needs; evaluate the extent of data underpinning authorizations for these indications; document development timelines and evidence available at the time of each approval; consider explanations for observed differences; and discuss the implications for clinical guidelines and use.

Methods and findings

For each indication, we selected two drugs: one recently approved and one approved between 2012 and 2014, when the first new anti-TB drug from a novel class in more than 40 years received marketing authorization. We calculated time from first published peer-reviewed evidence of activity to date of approval; the number of phase 1, 2, and 3 trials; the number of trial participants randomized to treatment arms containing the drug; and the total number of participants in each trial from the individual drug approval packages. We found that the two TB drugs took longer to gain approval (8.0 and 19.2 years for bedaquiline and pretomanid, respectively) despite availing of special regulatory pathways meant to expedite approval, when compared to the HIV (2.6 years for dolutegravir and 4.7 years for doravirine) and HCV drugs (3.2 and 1.6 years for sofosbuvir and glecaprevir/pibrentasvir, respectively). Moreover, fewer participants were studied prior to TB drug approvals (380 and 879) than prior to approvals for HIV (1598 and 979) and for HCV (2291 and 2448) drugs.

Conclusions

The dramatic disparities observed in TB drug development reaffirm the importance of several actions. Increased investment in TB research and development is necessary to rapidly advance drugs through the pipeline. Development plans and partnerships must provide safety and efficacy evidence on combinations and durations that are relevant to real-world use in heterogeneous populations. Reliable, validated surrogate markers of relapse-free cure are essential to decrease the duration and cost of TB treatment trials and increase the confidence and speed with which new regimens can advance. Lastly, regulators and normative bodies must maintain high evidentiary standards for authorization while ensuring timely and broad approval for TB drugs and regimens.

Sputum lipoarabinomannan (LAM) as a biomarker to determine sputum mycobacterial load: exploratory and model-based analyses of integrated data from four cohorts

Background

Despite the high global disease burden of tuberculosis (TB), the disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection, novel treatments remain an urgent medical need. Development efforts continue to be hampered by the reliance on culture-based methods, which often take weeks to obtain due to the slow growth rate of Mtb. The availability of a “real-time” measure of treatment efficacy could accelerate TB drug development. Sputum lipoarabinomannan (LAM; an Mtb cell wall glycolipid) has promise as a pharmacodynamic biomarker of mycobacterial sputum load.

Methods

The present analysis evaluates LAM as a surrogate for Mtb burden in the sputum samples from 4 cohorts of a total of 776 participants. These include those from 2 cohorts of 558 non-TB and TB participants prior to the initiation of treatment (558 sputum samples), 1 cohort of 178 TB patients under a 14-day bactericidal activity trial with various mono- or multi-TB drug therapies, and 1 cohort of 40 TB patients with data from the first 56-day treatment of a standard 4-drug regimen.

Results

Regression analysis demonstrated that LAM was a predictor of colony-forming unit (CFU)/mL values obtained from the 14-day treatment cohort, with well-estimated model parameters (relative standard error ≤ 22.2%). Moreover, no changes in the relationship between LAM and CFU/mL were observed across the different treatments, suggesting that sputum LAM can be used to reasonably estimate the CFU/mL in the presence of treatment. The integrated analysis showed that sputum LAM also appears to be as good a predictor of time to Mycobacteria Growth Incubator Tube (MGIT) positivity as CFU/mL. As a binary readout, sputum LAM positivity is a strong predictor of solid media or MGIT culture positivity with an area-under-the-curve value of 0.979 and 0.976, respectively, from receiver-operator curve analysis.

Conclusions

Our results indicate that sputum LAM performs as a pharmacodynamic biomarker for rapid measurement of Mtb burden in sputum, and thereby may enable more efficient early phase clinical trial designs (e.g., adaptive designs) to compare candidate anti-TB regimens and streamline dose selection for use in pivotal trials.

Trial registration NexGen EBA study (NCT02371681)

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07308-3.

Incorporating estimands into clinical trial statistical analysis plans

BACKGROUND

International Council for Harmonisation (ICH) E9 Statistical Principles for Clinical Trials was developed as a consensus guidance document to encourage worldwide harmonization of the principles of statistical methodology in clinical trials. Addendum E9 (R1) clarified and extended ICH E9 with a focus on estimands and sensitivity analyses. Since the release of E9 (R1), clinical trial protocols have included estimands, but there is variation in how they are presented. Statistical analysis plans (SAPs) are increasingly becoming publicly available (e.g. posting on ClinicalTrials.gov) and present an opportunity to link estimands with planned analyses to present the alignment of trial objectives, design, conduct, and analysis.

METHODS

A table format was used to create a template for inclusion in SAPs that satisfies ICH E9 (R1) guidance to align statistical analysis to the estimand. The template provides a consistent structure for presentation of estimands and the associated analysis, and is applicable to a wide range of trial designs. We illustrate use of the template with a hypothetical clinical trial in HIV-1.

RESULTS

The estimand-to-analysis table template starts with the study objective describing the clinical question of interest as written in the trial protocol. The remainder of the table describes each attribute of the estimand (treatment, target population, variable, intercurrent events, and population-level summary) in the left column (ESTIMAND), while the right column describes how each attribute will be handled using the data collected in the clinical trial (ANALYSIS). The template was applied to a hypothetical, early-phase single-arm trial, modeled after a pediatric trial in HIV, where the objective was to determine the safety of a new antiretroviral drug as part of a combination antiretroviral treatment regimen in the pediatric population. Three intercurrent events were illustrated in the table: death, premature treatment discontinuation before 24 weeks, and pregnancy. An estimand-to-analysis table from a grant application that addresses the primary objective of a placebo-controlled randomized trial is also presented to demonstrate an alternative usage.

CONCLUSION

We found the template to be useful in study design, providing a snapshot of the objective, target population, potential intercurrent events, analysis plan, and considerations for missing data in one place and facilitating discussion among stakeholders. The proposed standardized presentation of estimand attributes and analysis considerations in SAPs will provide guidance to SAP authors and consistency across studies to facilitate reviews.

Evaluating newly approved drugs for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (endTB): study protocol for an adaptive, multi-country randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Treatment of multidrug- and rifampin-resistant tuberculosis (MDR/RR-TB) is expensive, labour-intensive, and associated with substantial adverse events and poor outcomes. While most MDR/RR-TB patients do not receive treatment, many who do are treated for 18 months or more. A shorter all-oral regimen is currently recommended for only a sub-set of MDR/RR-TB. Its use is only conditionally recommended because of very low-quality evidence underpinning the recommendation. Novel combinations of newer and repurposed drugs bring hope in the fight against MDR/RR-TB, but their use has not been optimized in all-oral, shorter regimens. This has greatly limited their impact on the burden of disease. There is, therefore, dire need for high-quality evidence on the performance of new, shortened, injectable-sparing regimens for MDR-TB which can be adapted to individual patients and different settings.

METHODS

endTB is a phase III, pragmatic, multi-country, adaptive, randomized, controlled, parallel, open-label clinical trial evaluating the efficacy and safety of shorter treatment regimens containing new drugs for patients with fluoroquinolone-susceptible, rifampin-resistant tuberculosis. Study participants are randomized to either the control arm, based on the current standard of care for MDR/RR-TB, or to one of five 39-week multi-drug regimens containing newly approved and repurposed drugs. Study participation in all arms lasts at least 73 and up to 104 weeks post-randomization. Randomization is response-adapted using interim Bayesian analysis of efficacy endpoints. The primary objective is to assess whether the efficacy of experimental regimens at 73 weeks is non-inferior to that of the control. A sample size of 750 patients across 6 arms affords at least 80% power to detect the non-inferiority of at least 1 (and up to 3) experimental regimens, with a one-sided alpha of 0.025 and a non-inferiority margin of 12%, against the control in both modified intention-to-treat and per protocol populations.

DISCUSSION

The lack of a safe and effective regimen that can be used in all patients is a major obstacle to delivering appropriate treatment to all patients with active MDR/RR-TB. Identifying multiple shorter, safe, and effective regimens has the potential to greatly reduce the burden of this deadly disease worldwide.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT02754765. Registered on 28 April 2016; the record was last updated for study protocol version 3.3, on 27 August 2019.

A framework for considering the risk-benefit trade-off in designing noninferiority trials using composite outcome approaches

When a new treatment regimen is expected to have comparable or slightly worse efficacy to that of the control regimen but has benefits in other domains such as safety and tolerability, a noninferiority (NI) trial may be appropriate but is fraught with difficulty in justifying an acceptable NI margin that is based on both clinical and statistical input. To overcome this, we propose to utilize composite risk-benefit outcomes that combine elements from domains of importance (eg, efficacy, safety, and tolerability). The composite outcome itself may be analyzed using a superiority framework, or it can be used as a tool at the design stage of a NI trial for selecting an NI margin for efficacy that balances changes in risks and benefits. In the latter case, the choice of NI margin may be based on a novel quantity called the maximum allowable decrease in efficacy (MADE), defined as the marginal difference in efficacy between arms that would yield a null treatment effect for the composite outcome given an assumed distribution for the composite outcome. We observe that MADE: (1) is larger when the safety improvement for the experimental arm is larger, (2) depends on the association between the efficacy and safety outcomes, and (3) depends on the control arm efficacy rate. We use a numerical example for power comparisons between a superiority test for the composite outcome vs a noninferiority test for efficacy using the MADE as the NI margin, and apply the methods to a TB treatment trial.

Advances in clinical trial design: Weaving tomorrow's TB treatments

Christian Lienhardt and co-authors discuss the conclusions of the PLOS Medicine Collection on advances in clinical trial design for development of new tuberculosis treatments.

Development of new TB regimens: Harmonizing trial design, product registration requirements, and public health guidance

Christian Lienhardt and colleagues discuss the importance of communication and coordination between regulators, researchers, and policy makers to ensure tuberculosis trials provide high-quality evidence for policy decisions.

Designing noninferiority tuberculosis treatment trials: Identifying practical advantages for drug regimens with acceptable effectiveness

In this Collection Review for the Novel Treatments for Tuberculosis Collection, Piero Olliaro and Michael Vaillant discuss the considerations when choosing a non-inferiority margin that is meaningful from statistical, ethical, clinical, and health standpoint.

Advances in clinical trial design for development of new TB treatments: A call for innovation

Christian Lienhardt and Payam Nahid launch the Collection on Advances in Clinical Trial Design for Development of New Tuberculosis Treatments.