Risk score for predicting mortality including urine lipoarabinomannan detection in hospital inpatients with HIV-associated tuberculosis in sub-Saharan Africa: Derivation and external validation cohort study

Mortality and associated factors among people living with HIV admitted at a tertiary-care hospital in Uganda: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Hospital admission outcomes for people living with HIV (PLHIV) in resource-limited settings are understudied. We describe in-hospital mortality and associated clinical-demographic factors among PLHIV admitted at a tertiary-level public hospital in Uganda.

METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional analysis of routinely collected data for PLHIV admitted at Kiruddu National Referral Hospital between March 2020 and March 2023. We estimated the proportion of PLHIV who had died during hospitalization and performed logistic regression modelling to identify predictors of mortality.

RESULTS

Of the 5,827 hospitalized PLHIV, the median age was 39 years (interquartile range [IQR] 31-49) and 3,293 (56.51%) were female. The median CD4 + cell count was 109 cells/µL (IQR 25-343). At admission, 3,710 (63.67%) were active on antiretroviral therapy (ART); 1,144 (19.63%) had interrupted ART > 3 months and 973 (16.70%) were ART naïve. In-hospital mortality was 26% (1,524) with a median time-to-death of 3 days (IQR 1-7). Factors associated with mortality (with adjusted odds ratios) included ART interruption, 1.33, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.13-1.57, p 0.001; CD4 + counts ≤ 200 cells/µL 1.59, 95%CI 1.33-1.91, p < 0.001; undocumented CD4 + cell count status 2.08, 95%CI 1.73-2.50, p < 0.001; impaired function status 7.35, 95%CI 6.42-8.41, p < 0.001; COVID-19 1.70, 95%CI 1.22-2.37, p 0.002; liver disease 1.77, 95%CI 1.36-2.30, p < 0.001; co-infections 1.53, 95%CI 1.32-1.78, p < 0.001; home address > 20 km from hospital 1.23, 95%CI 1.04-1.46, p 0.014; hospital readmission 0.7, 95%CI 0.56-0.88, p 0.002; chronic lung disease 0.62, 95%CI 0.41-0.92, p 0.019; and neurologic disease 0.46, 95%CI 0.32-0.68, p < 0.001.

CONCLUSION

One in four admitted PLHIV die during hospitalization. Identification of risk factors (such as ART interruption, function impairment, low/undocumented CD4 + cell count), early diagnosis and treatment of co-infections and liver disease could improve outcomes.

Interventions to reduce deaths in people living with HIV admitted to hospital in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review

People living with HIV (PLHIV) admitted to hospital have a high risk of death. We systematically appraised evidence for interventions to reduce mortality among hospitalised PLHIV in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Using a broad search strategy with terms for HIV, hospitals, and clinical trials, we searched for reports published between 1 Jan 2003 and 23 August 2021. Studies of interventions among adult HIV positive inpatients in LMICs were included if there was a comparator group and death was an outcome. We excluded studies restricted only to inpatients with a specific diagnosis (e.g. cryptococcal meningitis). Of 19,970 unique studies identified in search, ten were eligible for inclusion with 7,531 participants in total: nine randomised trials, and one before-after study. Three trials investigated systematic screening for tuberculosis; two showed survival benefit for urine TB screening vs. no urine screening, and one which compared Xpert MTB/RIF versus smear microscopy showed no difference in survival. One before-after study implemented 2007 WHO guidelines to improve management of smear negative tuberculosis in severely ill PLHIV, and showed survival benefit but with high risk of bias. Two trials evaluated complex interventions aimed at overcoming barriers to ART initiation in newly diagnosed PLHIV, one of which showed survival benefit and the other no difference. Two small trials evaluated early inpatient ART start, with no difference in survival. Two trials investigated protocol-driven fluid resuscitation for emergency-room attendees meeting case-definitions for sepsis, and showed increased mortality with use of a protocol for fluid administration. In conclusion, ten studies published since 2003 investigated interventions that aimed to reduce mortality in hospitalised adults with HIV, and weren't restricted to people with a defined disease diagnosis. Inpatient trials of diagnostics, therapeutics or a package of interventions to reduce mortality should be a research priority. Trial registration: PROSPERO Number: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42019150341.

Diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in adults with HIV

Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the causative agent of tuberculosis (TB), continues to pose a major public health problem and is the leading cause of mortality in people infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). HIV infection greatly increases the risk of developing TB even before CD4+ T-cell counts decrease. Co-infection provides reciprocal advantages to both pathogens and leads to acceleration of both diseases. In HIV-coinfected persons, the diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis are particularly challenging. Intensifying integration of HIV and tuberculosis control programmes has an impact on reducing diagnostic delays, increasing early case detection, providing prompt treatment onset, and ultimately reducing transmission. In this Review, we describe our current understanding of how these two pathogens interact with each other, new sensitive rapid assays for TB, several new prevention methods, new drugs and regimens.

A Recombinase Polymerase Amplification-Coupled Cas12a Mutant-Based Module for Efficient Detection of Streptomycin-Resistant Mutations in Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) is a serious public health problem and threat to global TB prevention and control. Streptomycin (STR) is the earliest and classical anti-TB drug, and it is the earliest drug that generated resistance to anti-TB treatment, which limits its use in treating TB and impedes TB control efforts. The rapid, economical, and highly sensitive detection of STR-resistant TB may help reduce disease transmission and morbimortality. CRISPR/CRISPR-associated protein (Cas) is a new-generation pathogen detection method that can detect single-nucleotide polymorphisms with high sensitivity and good specificity. In this study, a Cas12a RR detection system that can recognize more non-traditional protospacer-adjacent motif-targeting sequences was developed based on Cas12a combined with recombinase polymerase amplification technology. This system detects 0.1% of the target substance, and the entire detection process can be completed within 60 min. Its sensitivity and specificity for detecting clinical STR-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis were both 100%. Overall, the Cas12 RR detection system provides a novel alternative for the rapid, simple, sensitive, and specific detection of STR-resistant TB, which may contribute to the prompt treatment and prevention of disease transmission in STR-resistant TB.

Incidence of HIV-positive admission and inpatient mortality in Malawi (2012-2019)

OBJECTIVE

To investigate trends in population incidence of HIV-positive hospital admission and risk of in-hospital death among adults living with HIV between 2012 and 2019 in Blantyre, Malawi.

DESIGN

Population cohort study using an existing electronic health information system ('SPINE') at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital and Blantyre census data.

METHODS

We used multiple imputation and negative binomial regression to estimate population age-specific and sex-specific admission rates over time. We used a log-binomial model to investigate trends in risk of in-hospital death.

RESULTS

Of 32 814 adult medical admissions during Q4 2012--Q3 2019, HIV status was recorded for 75.6%. HIV-positive admissions decreased substantially between 2012 and 2019. After imputation for missing data, HIV-positive admissions were highest in Q3 2013 (173 per 100 000 adult Blantyre residents) and lowest in Q3 2019 (53 per 100 000 residents). An estimated 10 818 fewer than expected people with HIV (PWH) [95% confidence interval (CI) 10 068-11 568] were admitted during 2012-2019 compared with the counterfactual situation where admission rates stayed the same throughout this period. Absolute reductions were greatest for women aged 25-34 years (2264 fewer HIV-positive admissions, 95% CI 2002-2526). In-hospital mortality for PWH was 23.5%, with no significant change over time in any age-sex group, and no association with antiretroviral therapy (ART) use at admission.

CONCLUSION

Rates of admission for adult PWH decreased substantially, likely because of large increases in community provision of HIV diagnosis, treatment and care. However, HIV-positive in-hospital deaths remain unacceptably high, despite improvements in ART coverage. A concerted research and implementation agenda is urgently needed to reduce inpatient deaths among PWH.

Derivation and external validation of a risk score for predicting HIV-associated tuberculosis to support case finding and preventive therapy scale-up: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

Among people living with HIV (PLHIV), more flexible and sensitive tuberculosis (TB) screening tools capable of detecting both symptomatic and subclinical active TB are needed to (1) reduce morbidity and mortality from undiagnosed TB; (2) facilitate scale-up of tuberculosis preventive therapy (TPT) while reducing inappropriate prescription of TPT to PLHIV with subclinical active TB; and (3) allow for differentiated HIV-TB care.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used Botswana XPRES trial data for adult HIV clinic enrollees collected during 2012 to 2015 to develop a parsimonious multivariable prognostic model for active prevalent TB using both logistic regression and random forest machine learning approaches. A clinical score was derived by rescaling final model coefficients. The clinical score was developed using southern Botswana XPRES data and its accuracy validated internally, using northern Botswana data, and externally using 3 diverse cohorts of antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive and ART-experienced PLHIV enrolled in XPHACTOR, TB Fast Track (TBFT), and Gugulethu studies from South Africa (SA). Predictive accuracy of the clinical score was compared with the World Health Organization (WHO) 4-symptom TB screen. Among 5,418 XPRES enrollees, 2,771 were included in the derivation dataset; 67% were female, median age was 34 years, median CD4 was 240 cells/μL, 189 (7%) had undiagnosed prevalent TB, and characteristics were similar between internal derivation and validation datasets. Among XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, median CD4 was 400, 73, and 167 cells/μL, and prevalence of TB was 5%, 10%, and 18%, respectively. Factors predictive of TB in the derivation dataset and selected for the clinical score included male sex (1 point), ≥1 WHO TB symptom (7 points), smoking history (1 point), temperature >37.5°C (6 points), body mass index (BMI) <18.5kg/m2 (2 points), and severe anemia (hemoglobin <8g/dL) (3 points). Sensitivity using WHO 4-symptom TB screen was 73%, 80%, 94%, and 94% in XPRES, XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, respectively, but increased to 88%, 87%, 97%, and 97%, when a clinical score of ≥2 was used. Negative predictive value (NPV) also increased 1%, 0.3%, 1.6%, and 1.7% in XPRES, XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, respectively, when the clinical score of ≥2 replaced WHO 4-symptom TB screen. Categorizing risk scores into low (<2), moderate (2 to 10), and high-risk categories (>10) yielded TB prevalence of 1%, 1%, 2%, and 6% in the lowest risk group and 33%, 22%, 26%, and 32% in the highest risk group for XPRES, XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, respectively. At clinical score ≥2, the number needed to screen (NNS) ranged from 5.0 in Gugulethu to 11.0 in XPHACTOR. Limitations include that the risk score has not been validated in resource-rich settings and needs further evaluation and validation in contemporary cohorts in Africa and other resource-constrained settings.

CONCLUSIONS

The simple and feasible clinical score allowed for prioritization of sensitivity and NPV, which could facilitate reductions in mortality from undiagnosed TB and safer administration of TPT during proposed global scale-up efforts. Differentiation of risk by clinical score cutoff allows flexibility in designing differentiated HIV-TB care to maximize impact of available resources.

Impact of diagnostic strategies for tuberculosis using lateral flow urine lipoarabinomannan assay in people living with HIV

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is the primary cause of hospital admission in people living with HIV, and the likelihood of death in the hospital is unacceptably high. The Alere Determine TB LAM Ag test (AlereLAM) is a point-of-care test and the only lateral flow lipoarabinomannan assay (LF-LAM) assay currently commercially available and recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). A 2019 Cochrane Review summarised the diagnostic accuracy of LF-LAM for tuberculosis in people living with HIV. This systematic review assesses the impact of the use of LF-LAM (AlereLAM) on mortality and other patient-important outcomes.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the impact of the use of LF-LAM (AlereLAM) on mortality in adults living with HIV in inpatient and outpatient settings. To assess the impact of the use of LF-LAM (AlereLAM) on other patient-important outcomes in adults living with HIV, including time to diagnosis of tuberculosis, and time to initiation of tuberculosis treatment.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register; the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL); MEDLINE (PubMed); Embase (Ovid); Science Citation Index Expanded (Web of Science), BIOSIS Previews, Scopus, LILACS; ProQuest Dissertations and Theses; ClinicalTrials.gov; and the WHO ICTRP up to 12 March 2021.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomized controlled trials that compared a diagnostic intervention including LF-LAM with diagnostic strategies that used smear microscopy, mycobacterial culture, a nucleic acid amplification test such as Xpert MTB/RIF, or a combination of these tests. We included adults (≥ 15 years) living with HIV.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently assessed trials for eligibility, extracted data, and analysed risk of bias using the Cochrane tool for assessing risk of bias in randomized studies. We contacted study authors for clarification as needed. We used risk ratio (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). We used a fixed-effect model except in the presence of clinical or statistical heterogeneity, in which case we used a random-effects model. We assessed the certainty of the evidence using GRADE.

MAIN RESULTS

We included three trials, two in inpatient settings and one in outpatient settings. All trials were conducted in sub-Saharan Africa and assessed the impact of diagnostic strategies that included LF-LAM on mortality when the test was used in conjunction with other tuberculosis diagnostic tests or clinical assessment for clinical decision-making in adults living with HIV. Inpatient settings  In inpatient settings, the use of LF-LAM testing as part of a tuberculosis diagnostic strategy likely reduces mortality in people living with HIV at eight weeks compared to routine tuberculosis diagnostic testing without LF-LAM (pooled RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.94; 5102 participants, 2 trials; moderate-certainty evidence). That is, people living with HIV who received LF-LAM had 15% lower risk of mortality. The absolute effect was 34 fewer deaths per 1000 (from 14 fewer to 55 fewer). In inpatient settings, the use of LF-LAM testing as part of a tuberculosis diagnostic strategy probably results in a slight increase in the proportion of people living with HIV who were started on tuberculosis treatment compared to routine tuberculosis diagnostic testing without LF-LAM (pooled RR 1.26, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.69; 5102 participants, 2 trials; moderate-certainty evidence).  Outpatient settings In outpatient settings, the use of LF-LAM testing as part of a tuberculosis diagnostic strategy may reduce mortality in people living with HIV at six months compared to routine tuberculosis diagnostic testing without LF-LAM (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.11; 2972 participants, 1 trial; low-certainty evidence). Although this trial did not detect a difference in mortality, the direction of effect was towards a mortality reduction, and the effect size was similar to that in inpatient settings.  In outpatient settings, the use of LF-LAM testing as part of a tuberculosis diagnostic strategy may result in a large increase in the proportion of people living with HIV who were started on tuberculosis treatment compared to routine tuberculosis diagnostic testing without LF-LAM (RR 5.44, 95% CI 4.70 to 6.29, 3022 participants, 1 trial; low-certainty evidence). Other patient-important outcomes Assessment of other patient-important and implementation outcomes in the trials varied. The included trials demonstrated that a higher proportion of people living with HIV were able to produce urine compared to sputum for tuberculosis diagnostic testing; a higher proportion of people living with HIV were diagnosed with tuberculosis in the group that received LF-LAM; and the incremental diagnostic yield was higher for LF-LAM than for urine or sputum Xpert MTB/RIF.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

In inpatient settings, the use of LF-LAM as part of a tuberculosis diagnostic testing strategy likely reduces mortality and probably results in a slight increase in tuberculosis treatment initiation in people living with HIV. The reduction in mortality may be due to earlier diagnosis, which facilitates prompt treatment initiation. In outpatient settings, the use of LF-LAM testing as part of a tuberculosis diagnostic strategy may reduce mortality and may result in a large increase in tuberculosis treatment initiation in people living with HIV. Our results support the implementation of LF-LAM to be used in conjunction with other WHO-recommended tuberculosis diagnostic tests to assist in the rapid diagnosis of tuberculosis in people living with HIV.

Improved detection and management of advanced HIV disease through a community adult TB-contact tracing intervention with same-day provision of the WHO-recommended package of care including ART initiation in a rural district of Mozambique

INTRODUCTION

AIDS-mortality remains unacceptably high in sub-Saharan Africa, largely driven by advanced HIV disease (AHD). We nested a study in an existing tuberculosis (TB) contact-tracing intervention (Xpatial-TB). The aim was to assess the burden of AHD among high-risk people living with HIV (PLHIV) identified and to evaluate the provision of the WHO-recommended package of care to this population.

METHODS

All PLHIV ≥14 years old identified between June and December 2018 in Manhiça District by Xpatial-TB were offered to participate in the study if ART naïve or had suboptimal ART adherence. Consenting individuals were screened for AHD. Patients with AHD (CD4 < 200 cells/μL or WHO stage 3 or 4) were offered a package of interventions in a single visit, including testing for cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) and TB-lipoarabinomannan (TB-LAM), prophylaxis and treatment for opportunistic infections, adherence support or accelerated ART initiation. We collected information on follow-up visits carried out under routine programmatic conditions for six months.

RESULTS

A total of 2881 adults were identified in the Xpatial TB-contact intervention. Overall, 23% (673/2881) were HIV positive, including 351 TB index (64.2%) and 322 TB contacts (13.8%). Overall, 159/673 PLHIV (24%) were ART naïve or had suboptimal ART adherence, of whom 155 (97%, 124 TB index and 31 TB-contacts) consented to the study and were screened for AHD. Seventy percent of TB index-patients (87/124) and 16% of TB contacts (5/31) had CD4 < 200 cells/µL. Four (13%) of the TB contacts had TB, giving an overall AHD prevalence among TB contacts of 29% (9/31). Serum-CrAg was positive in 4.6% (4/87) of TB-index patients and in zero TB contacts. All ART naïve TB contacts without TB initiated ART within 48 hours of HIV diagnosis. Among TB cases, ART timing was tailored to the presence of TB and cryptococcosis. Six-month mortality was 21% among TB-index cases and zero in TB contacts.

CONCLUSIONS

A TB contact-tracing outreach intervention identified undiagnosed HIV and AHD in TB patients and their contacts, undiagnosed cryptococcosis among TB patients, and resulted in an adequate provision of the WHO-recommended package of care in this rural Mozambican population. Same-day and accelerated ART initiation was feasible and safe in this population including among those with AHD.

Plasma hemoglobin and the risk of death in HIV/AIDS patients treated with antiretroviral therapy

Background: Previous studies concerning the effect of plasma hemoglobin (HB) and other factors that may modify the risk of death in people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) treated with antiretroviral therapy (ART) are limited.

Results: Higher HB was independently linked to a lower death risk in PLHIV, with a decrease of 29% (13%, 43%) per standard deviation (SD) increment after adjusting for CD4, VL and other potential factors [hazard ratio (HR): 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.57-0.87, P<0.001]. In addition, the addition of HB to the predictive model containing VL and CD4 significantly improved the C-index, by 0.69% (95% CI: 0.68%-0.71%), and net discrimination, by 0.5% (95% CI: 0.0%-1.6%, P=0.040), when predicting the death risk of PLHIV.

Conclusions: A lower level of HB was an independent risk factor for HIV/AIDS-associated death in PLHIV. HB combined with VL and CD4 may be an appropriate predictive model of the death risk of PLHIV.

Materials and methods: A propensity-score matching (PSM) approach was applied to select a total of 750 PLHIV (150 deceased and 600 living) from the AIDS prevention and control information system in the Wenzhou area from 2006 to 2018. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were formulated to estimate the effect of HB. The predictive performance improvement contributed by HB was evaluated using the C-index and net reclassification improvement.

"SILVAMP TB LAM" Rapid Urine Tuberculosis Test Predicts Mortality in Patients Hospitalized With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in South Africa

Reducing diagnostic delay is key toward decreasing tuberculosis-associated deaths in people living with human immunodeficiency virus. In tuberculosis patients with retrospective urine testing, the point-of-care Fujifilm SILVAMP TB LAM (FujiLAM) could have rapidly diagnosed tuberculosis in up to 89% who died. In FujiLAM negative patients, the probability of 12-week survival was 86–97%.

Benchmarking Machine Learning Models to Assist in the Prognosis of Tuberculosis

Tuberculosis (TB) is an airborne infectious disease caused by organisms in the Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) complex. In many low and middle-income countries, TB remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Once a patient has been diagnosed with TB, it is critical that healthcare workers make the most appropriate treatment decision given the individual conditions of the patient and the likely course of the disease based on medical experience. Depending on the prognosis, delayed or inappropriate treatment can result in unsatisfactory results including the exacerbation of clinical symptoms, poor quality of life, and increased risk of death. This work benchmarks machine learning models to aid TB prognosis using a Brazilian health database of confirmed cases and deaths related to TB in the State of Amazonas. The goal is to predict the probability of death by TB thus aiding the prognosis of TB and associated treatment decision making process. In its original form, the data set comprised 36,228 records and 130 fields but suffered from missing, incomplete, or incorrect data. Following data cleaning and preprocessing, a revised data set was generated comprising 24,015 records and 38 fields, including 22,876 reported cured TB patients and 1139 deaths by TB. To explore how the data imbalance impacts model performance, two controlled experiments were designed using (1) imbalanced and (2) balanced data sets. The best result is achieved by the Gradient Boosting (GB) model using the balanced data set to predict TB-mortality, and the ensemble model composed by the Random Forest (RF), GB and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) models is the best model to predict the cure class.

Systematic review of prediction models for pulmonary tuberculosis treatment outcomes in adults

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review and critically evaluate prediction models developed to predict tuberculosis (TB) treatment outcomes among adults with pulmonary TB.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Google Scholar were searched for studies published from 1 January 1995 to 9 January 2020.

STUDY SELECTION AND DATA EXTRACTION

Studies that developed a model to predict pulmonary TB treatment outcomes were included. Study screening, data extraction and quality assessment were conducted independently by two reviewers. Study quality was evaluated using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool. Data were synthesised with narrative review and in tables and figures.

RESULTS

14 739 articles were identified, 536 underwent full-text review and 33 studies presenting 37 prediction models were included. Model outcomes included death (n=16, 43%), treatment failure (n=6, 16%), default (n=6, 16%) or a composite outcome (n=9, 25%). Most models (n=30, 81%) measured discrimination (median c-statistic=0.75; IQR: 0.68-0.84), and 17 (46%) reported calibration, often the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (n=13). Nineteen (51%) models were internally validated, and six (16%) were externally validated. Eighteen (54%) studies mentioned missing data, and of those, half (n=9) used complete case analysis. The most common predictors included age, sex, extrapulmonary TB, body mass index, chest X-ray results, previous TB and HIV. Risk of bias varied across studies, but all studies had high risk of bias in their analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

TB outcome prediction models are heterogeneous with disparate outcome definitions, predictors and methodology. We do not recommend applying any in clinical settings without external validation, and encourage future researchers adhere to guidelines for developing and reporting of prediction models.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study was registered on the international prospective register of systematic reviews PROSPERO (CRD42020155782).

Risk scores for predicting early antiretroviral therapy mortality in sub-Saharan Africa to inform who needs intensification of care: a derivation and external validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

Clinical scores to determine early (6-month) antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality risk have not been developed for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), home to 70% of people living with HIV. In the absence of validated scores, WHO eligibility criteria (EC) for ART care intensification are CD4 < 200/μL or WHO stage III/IV.

METHODS

We used Botswana XPRES trial data for adult ART enrollees to develop CD4-independent and CD4-dependent multivariable prognostic models for 6-month mortality. Scores were derived by rescaling coefficients. Scores were developed using the first 50% of XPRES ART enrollees, and their accuracy validated internally and externally using South African TB Fast Track (TBFT) trial data. Predictive accuracy was compared between scores and WHO EC.

RESULTS

Among 5553 XPRES enrollees, 2838 were included in the derivation dataset; 68% were female and 83 (3%) died by 6 months. Among 1077 TBFT ART enrollees, 55% were female and 6% died by 6 months. Factors predictive of 6-month mortality in the derivation dataset at p < 0.01 and selected for the CD4-independent score included male gender (2 points), ≥ 1 WHO tuberculosis symptom (2 points), WHO stage III/IV (2 points), severe anemia (hemoglobin < 8 g/dL) (3 points), and temperature > 37.5 °C (2 points). The same variables plus CD4 < 200/μL (1 point) were included in the CD4-dependent score. Among XPRES enrollees, a CD4-independent score of ≥ 4 would provide 86% sensitivity and 66% specificity, whereas WHO EC would provide 83% sensitivity and 58% specificity. If WHO stage alone was used, sensitivity was 48% and specificity 89%. Among TBFT enrollees, the CD4-independent score of ≥ 4 would provide 95% sensitivity and 27% specificity, whereas WHO EC would provide 100% sensitivity but 0% specificity. Accuracy was similar between CD4-independent and CD4-dependent scores. Categorizing CD4-independent scores into low (< 4), moderate (4-6), and high risk (≥ 7) gave 6-month mortality of 1%, 4%, and 17% for XPRES and 1%, 5%, and 30% for TBFT enrollees.

CONCLUSIONS

Sensitivity of the CD4-independent score was nearly twice that of WHO stage in predicting 6-month mortality and could be used in settings lacking CD4 testing to inform ART care intensification. The CD4-dependent score improved specificity versus WHO EC. Both scores should be considered for scale-up in SSA.

Accuracy of the tuberculosis point-of-care Alere determine lipoarabinomannan antigen diagnostic test using α-mannosidase treated and untreated urine in a cohort of people living with HIV in Guatemala

BACKGROUND

Improved point-of-care diagnostic tests for tuberculosis (TB) in severe immune suppressed people living with HIV (PLWH) are needed to decrease morbidity and mortality outcomes. The aim of the study is to evaluate the performance of the lipoarabinomannan antigen test (LAM-test) with and without α-mannosidase pre-treated urine in a cohort of PLWH in primary care clinics in Guatemala. We further determined TB incidence, and mortality rates and its risk factors in PLWH with TB symptoms.

METHODS

Prospective longitudinal study of PLWH with TB symptoms. Urine samples were collected at 2 HIV sites to test the sensitivity of the LAM-test in urine with and without α-mannosidase pre-treatment. A composite reference standard of either a positive Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex culture and/or GeneXpert^® MTB/RIF (Xpert, Cepheid, Sunnyvale, CA, USA) results was used in the LAM-test diagnostic accuracy studies. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to study mortality predictors.

RESULTS

The overall sensitivity of the LAM-test was of 56.1% with 95% CI of (43.3-68.3). There were no differences in the LAM-test sensitivity neither by hospital nor by CD4 T cell values. LAM-test sensitivity in PLWH with < 200 CD4 T cells/µl was of 62.2% (95% CI 46.5-76.2). There were no significant differences in sensitivity when comparing LAM-test results obtained from untreated vs. α-mannosidase treated urine [55.2% (95% CI 42.6-67.4) vs. 56.9% (95% CI 44-69.2), respectively]. TB incidence in our cohort was of 21.4/100 person years (PYs) (95% CI 16.6-27.6), and mortality rate was of 11.1/100 PYs (95% CI 8.2-15.0). Importantly, PLWH with a positive LAM-test result had an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of death of 1.98 (1.0-3.8) with a significant p value of 0.044 when compared to PLWH with a negative LAM-test result.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, α-mannosidase treatment of urine did not significantly increase the LAM-test performance, however; this needs to be further evaluated in a large-scale study due to our study limitations. Importantly, high rates of TB incidence and mortality were found, and a positive LAM-test result predicted mortality in PLWH with TB clinical symptoms.

Determine TB-LAM point-of-care tuberculosis assay predicts poor outcomes in outpatients during their first year of antiretroviral therapy in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Determine TB-LAM is the first point-of-care test (POC) for HIV-associated tuberculosis (TB) and rapidly identifies TB in those at high-risk for short-term mortality. While the relationship between urine-LAM and mortality has been previously described, the outcomes of those undergoing urine-LAM testing have largely been assessed during short follow-up periods within diagnostic accuracy studies. We therefore sought to assess the relationship between baseline urine-LAM results and subsequent hospitalization and mortality under real-world conditions among outpatients in the first year of ART.

METHODS

Consecutive, HIV-positive adults with a CD4 count < 100 cells/uL presenting for ART initiation were enrolled. TB diagnoses and outcomes (hospitalization, loss-to-follow and mortality) were recorded during the first year following enrolment. Baseline urine samples were retrospectively tested using the urine-LAM POC assay. Kaplan Meier survival curves were used to assess the cumulative probability of hospitalization or mortality in the first year of follow-up, according to urine-LAM status. Cox regression analyses were performed to determine independent predictors of hospitalization and mortality at  three months and one year of follow-up.

RESULTS

468 patients with a median CD4 count of 59 cells/uL were enrolled. There were 140 patients (29.9%) with newly diagnosed TB in the first year of follow-up of which 79 (56.4%) were microbiologically-confirmed. A total of 18% (n = 84) required hospital admission and 12.2% (n = 57) died within a year of study entry. 38 out of 468 (8.1%) patients retrospectively tested urine-LAM positive - including 19.0% of those with microbiologically-proven TB diagnoses (n = 15/79) and 23.0% (n = 14/61) of those with clinical-only TB diagnoses; 9 of 38 (23.7%) of patients retrospectively testing LAM positive were never diagnosed with TB under routine program conditions. Among all patients (n = 468) in the first year of follow-up, a positive urine-LAM result was strongly associated with all-cause hospitalization and mortality with a corresponding adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 3.7 (95%CI, 1.9-7.1) and 2.6 (95%, 1.2-5.7), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Systematic urine-LAM testing among ART-naïve HIV-positive outpatients with CD4 counts < 100 cells/uL detected TB cases that were missed under routine programme conditions and was highly predictive for subsequent hospitalization and mortality in the first year of ART.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for HIV/AIDS patients who underwent antiretroviral therapy: Data from a China population-based cohort

BACKGROUND

Accurate forecast of the death risk is crucial to the administration of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV). We aimed to establish and validate an effective prognosis nomogram in PLHIV receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART).

METHODS

All the data were obtained from 2006 to 2018 in the Wenzhou area from China AIDS prevention and control information system. Factors included in the nomogram were determined by univariate and multiple Cox proportional hazard analysis based on the training set. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration curves were used to assess its predictive accuracy and discriminative ability. Its clinical utility was also evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA), X-tile analysis and Kaplan-Meier curve, respectively in an independent validation set.

FINDINGS

Independent prognostic factors including haemoglobin, viral load and CD4+ T-cell count were determined and contained in the nomogram. Good agreement between the prediction by nomogram and actual observation could be detected in the calibration curve for mortality, especially in the first year. In the training cohort, AUC (95% CI) and C-index (95% CI) were 0.93 (0.90, 0.96) and 0.90 (0.85, 0.96), respectively. In the validation set, the nomogram still revealed excellent discriminations [AUC (95% CI): 0.95 (0.91, 1.00)] and good calibration [C-index (95% CI): 0.92 (0.82-1.00)]. Moreover, DCA also demonstrated that the nomogram was clinical beneficial. Additionally, participants could be classified into three distinct (low, middle and high) risk groups by the nomogram.

INTERPRETATION

The nomogram presents accurate and favourable prognostic prediction for PLHIV who underwent ART.

FUNDING

This work was supported by Zhejiang Basic Public Welfare Research Project (LGF19H260011), Wenzhou Basic Public Welfare Research Project (Y20180201), the Initial Scientific Research Fund (KYQD170301), the Major Project of the Eye Hospital Wenzhou the Major Project of the Eye Hospital Wenzhou Medical University (YNZD201602). Part of this work was also funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China (81670777) and Science and Technology Innovation Activity Plan and New Talents Plan for College Students in Zhejiang Province (2019R413073). The funders had no roles in study design, data collection, data analysis, interpretation and writing of the report.

Performance of Lipoarabinomannan Assay using Cerebrospinal fluid for the diagnosis of Tuberculous meningitis among HIV patients

Background: The diagnostic utility of the Mycobacteria tuberculosis lipoarabinomannan (TB-LAM) antigen lateral flow assay on cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) for the diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis (TBM) has not been extensively studied and the few published studies have conflicting results. Methods: Lumbar CSF from 59 HIV-positive patients with suspected TBM was tested with TB-LAM and Xpert MTB/Rif Ultra. The diagnostic performance of CSF TB-LAM was compared to positive CSF Xpert MTB/Rif Ultra (definite TBM) and a composite reference of probable or definite TBM according to the uniform case definition.  Results: Of 59 subjects, 12 (20%) had definite TBM and five (9%) had probable TBM. With reference to definite TBM, CSF TB-LAM assay had a diagnostic sensitivity of 33% and specificity of 96%. When compared to a composite reference of definite or probable TBM, the sensitivity was 24% and specificity was 95%. There were two false positive tests with TB-LAM (3+ grade). In-hospital mortality in CSF TB-LAM positive patients was 17% compared to 0% in those with definite TBM by Xpert MTB/Rif Ultra but negative LAM. Conclusions: Lumbar CSF TB-LAM has a poor performance in diagnosing TBM. Both urine TB-LAM and Xpert Ultra should be further investigated in the diagnosis of TBM.

Performance of Lipoarabinomannan Assay using Cerebrospinal fluid for the diagnosis of Tuberculous meningitis among HIV patients

Background: The diagnostic utility of the Mycobacteria tuberculosis lipoarabinomannan (TB-LAM) antigen lateral flow assay on cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) for the diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis (TBM) has not been extensively studied and the few published studies have conflicting results. Methods: Lumbar CSF from 59 HIV-positive patients with suspected TBM was tested with TB-LAM and Xpert MTB/Rif Ultra. The diagnostic performance of CSF TB-LAM was compared to positive CSF Xpert MTB/Rif Ultra (definite TBM) and a composite reference of probable or definite TBM according to the uniform case definition.  Results: Of 59 subjects, 12 (20%) had definite TBM and five (9%) had probable TBM. With reference to definite TBM, CSF TB-LAM assay had a diagnostic sensitivity of 33% and specificity of 96%. When compared to a composite reference of definite or probable TBM, the sensitivity was 24% and specificity was 95%. There were two false positive tests with TB-LAM (3+ grade). In-hospital mortality in CSF TB-LAM positive patients was 17% compared to 0% in those with definite TBM by Xpert MTB/Rif Ultra but negative LAM. Conclusions: Lumbar CSF TB-LAM has a poor performance in diagnosing TBM. Both urine TB-LAM and Xpert Ultra should be further investigated in the diagnosis of TBM.

Addressing critical needs in the fight to end tuberculosis with innovative tools and strategies

This month in PLOS Medicine we launched a Special Issue on New Tools and Strategies for Tuberculosis Diagnosis, Care, and Elimination. In this issue's Editorial, the Guest Editors Claudia Denkinger, Richard Chaisson, and Mark Hatherill highlight some of the research that will publish and how these studies focusing on discovery, clinical trials and implementation research collectively add to the prospects for reaching the EndTB targets of the WHO by 2035.