Spatially explicit modeling of schistosomiasis risk in eastern China based on a synthesis of epidemiological, environmental and intermediate host genetic data

Exploring the interplay between climate change and schistosomiasis transmission dynamics

Schistosomiasis, a neglected tropical disease caused by parasitic worms, poses a major public health challenge in economically disadvantaged regions, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate factors, such as temperature and rainfall patterns, play a crucial role in the transmission dynamics of the disease. This study presents a deterministic model that aims to evaluate the temporal and seasonal transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis by examining the influence of temperature and rainfall over time. Equilibrium states are examined to ascertain their existence and stability employing the center manifold theory, while the basic reproduction number is calculated using the next-generation technique. To validate the model's applicability, demographic and climatological data from Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania, which are endemic East African countries situated in the tropical region, are utilized as a case study region. The findings of this study provide evidence that the transmission of schistosomiasis in human populations is significantly influenced by seasonal and monthly variations, with incidence rates varying across countries depending on the frequency of temperature and rainfall. Consequently, the region is marked by both schistosomiasis emergencies and re-emergences. Specifically, it is observed that monthly mean temperatures within the range of 22-27 °C create favorable conditions for the development of schistosomiasis and have a positive impact on the reproduction numbers. On the other hand, monthly maximum temperatures ranging from 27 to 33 °C have an adverse effect on transmission. Furthermore, through sensitivity analysis, it is projected that by the year 2050, factors such as the recruitment rate of snails, the presence of parasite egg-containing stools, and the rate of miracidia shedding per parasite egg will contribute significantly to the occurrence and control of schistosomiasis infections. This study highlights the significant influence of seasonal and monthly variations, driven by temperature and rainfall patterns, on the transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis. These findings underscore the importance of considering climate factors in the control and prevention strategies of schistosomiasis. Additionally, the projected impact of various factors on schistosomiasis infections by 2050 emphasizes the need for proactive measures to mitigate the disease's impact on vulnerable populations. Overall, this research provides valuable insights to anticipate future challenges and devise adaptive measures to address schistosomiasis transmission patterns.

Environmental factors influencing Prevention and Control of Schistosomiasis Infection in Mwea, Kirinyaga County Kenya: A cross sectional study

Background

Schistosomiasis remains a major public health problem in Kenya. Environmental factors are critical in creating a medium for growth and spread of schistosomiasis vectors. The study investigated the environmental factors influencing prevention and control of schistosomiasis infection in Mwea West Sub County, Kirinyaga County-Kenya.

Methods

A multi stage sampling was used to identify four hundred and sixty-five (465) household. Analytical descriptive cross-sectional design that utilised quantitative data collection method was used. Data was collected using a pretested structured questionnaire and analysed using Chi square tests or Fisher's exact tests where applicable.

Results

Study results indicated a significant association p<.001 between household level of education, members being affected by floods during the rainy season and schistosomiasis infection. The result further indicates level of significance (p<0.047) in the association between sources of water in a household and schistosomiasis infection. No level of significance was posted between having a temporary water body in the area p (=.072) and schistosomiasis infection. In addition, there was no significant association between proximity to the nearest water source, p=.074 and proximity to the nearest health facility p=0.356 with schistosomiasis infection.

Conclusions

The study recommends carefully designing safe water sources in order to match the goal of effectively controlling and reversing the trends of schistosomiasis infections. The community should be made aware of the risk factors of schistosomiasis including water utilised in the household's alongside raising health seeking behaviours for diagnosis and treatment of schistosomiasis as a way of reducing the spread of infection.

Analysis of risk factors and changing trends the infection rate of intestinal schistosomiasis caused by S. japonicum from 2005 to 2014 in Lushan city

Intestinal schistosomiasis caused by S. japonicum has long been a threat to the health of residents within endemic areas, especially along the mid-tier of the Yangtze River basin as well as the Dongting and Poyang lakes. Therefore, we collected monitoring data from 2005 to 2014 in Lushan City, Jiujiang City, Jiangxi Province, which is located downstream of Poyang Lake. We conducted a logistic regression analysis in 2005 and in 2008 and then conducted a time series analysis from 2005 to 2014 in Lushan city. The results of the logistic regression analysis showed that after integrated measures were implemented in Lushan city in 2004, the infection rate of intestinal schistosomiasis decreased sharply in different populations, but fishermen had a greater risk of contracting intestinal schistosomiasis in both 2005 and 2008. From the time series analysis, we found that the infection rate decreased sharply from 2005 to 2009 and then increased slowly from 2009 to 2011 before finally becoming relatively stable and the predicated infection rates in HES, SM2, and SM3 are -1.14%, 0.35%, 0.29%, respectively, compared with 0.41% of schistosomiasis infection in 2014, showing a downward trend. Our study indicated that the integrated measures initiated in 2004 in Lushan city had a positive effect on controlling intestinal schistosomiasis, but we should still emphasize special treatment of particular populations, such as fishermen, and should consider environmental changes, such as changes in the water level of Poyang Lake, in the future.

The Three Gorges Dam: Does the Flooding Time Determine the Distribution of Schistosome-Transmitting Snails in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River, China?

BACKGROUND

Schistosomiasis is one of the most devastating tropical diseases in the world. Oncomelania hupensis is the only intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum, and its growth and development are sensitive to environmental factors. The Three Gorges Dam has substantially altered the water level in the Yangtze River. This study focused on the impact of the flooding time on the occurrence of Oncomelania snails in Hunan Province, China.

METHODS

The data regarding Oncomelania snails were collected from the Schistosomiasis Atlas of the People's Republic of China. Air temperature, hours of daylight and relative humidity from 1995 to 2002 were collected from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System. The data for rainfall and days inundated with water were collected from the Hunan flood control information system and hydrological stations in Hunan Province. A generalized additive model was used to estimate the impact of these factors on the presence or absence of snails.

RESULTS

The number of days inundated with water in the areas with snails ranged from 56 to 212 days. However, 82 percent of the areas without snails were inundated with water less than 60 days. The lowest air temperature in a year in the areas without snails ranges from -2.88 °C to -2.10 °C, and the range was from -2.88 °C to -2.34 °C for areas with snails. Annual rainfall in the areas with snails ranged from 989 to 1565 mm, and the range was from 1230 mm to 1647 mm for the areas without snails. The results from the generalized additive model showed that the number of days inundated with water, lowest air temperature in a year, annual rainfall, days of daily rainfall greater than 0.1 mm, and hours of daylight were the factors that significantly affect the occurrence of snails in Hunan Province, China.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of days inundated with water may be a key factor determining the geographical distribution of Oncomelania snails in Hunan Province and the favorable number of days inundated with water for the survival of snails ranges from about 2 to 7 months.

Genetic Evidence of Contemporary Dispersal of the Intermediate Snail Host of Schistosoma japonicum: Movement of an NTD Host Is Facilitated by Land Use and Landscape Connectivity

BACKGROUND

While the dispersal of hosts and vectors-through active or passive movement-is known to facilitate the spread and re-emergence of certain infectious diseases, little is known about the movement ecology of Oncomelania spp., intermediate snail host of the parasite Schistosoma japonicum, and its consequences for the spread of schistosomiasis in East and Southeast Asia. In China, despite intense control programs aimed at preventing schistosomiasis transmission, there is evidence in recent years of re-emergence and persistence of infection in some areas, as well as an increase in the spatial extent of the snail host. A quantitative understanding of the dispersal characteristics of the intermediate host can provide new insights into the spatial dynamics of transmission, and can assist public health officials in limiting the geographic spread of infection.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Oncomelania hupensis robertsoni snails (n = 833) were sampled from 29 sites in Sichuan, China, genotyped, and analyzed using Bayesian assignment to estimate the rate of recent snail migration across sites. Landscape connectivity between each site pair was estimated using the geographic distance distributions derived from nine environmental models: Euclidean, topography, incline, wetness, land use, watershed, stream use, streams and channels, and stream velocity. Among sites, 14.4% to 32.8% of sampled snails were identified as recent migrants, with 20 sites comprising >20% migrants. Migration rates were generally low between sites, but at 8 sites, over 10% of the overall host population originated from one proximal site. Greater landscape connectivity was significantly associated with increased odds of migration, with the minimum path distance (as opposed to median or first quartile) emerging as the strongest predictor across all environmental models. Models accounting for land use explained the largest proportion of the variance in migration rates between sites. A greater number of irrigation channels leading into a site was associated with an increase in the site's propensity to both attract and retain snails.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our findings have important implications for controlling the geographic spread of schistosomiasis in China, through improved understanding of the dispersal capacity of the parasite's intermediate host.

Spatial measurement errors in the field of spatial epidemiology

Background

Spatial epidemiology has been aided by advances in geographic information systems, remote sensing, global positioning systems and the development of new statistical methodologies specifically designed for such data. Given the growing popularity of these studies, we sought to review and analyze the types of spatial measurement errors commonly encountered during spatial epidemiological analysis of spatial data.

Methods

Google Scholar, Medline, and Scopus databases were searched using a broad set of terms for papers indexed by a term indicating location (space or geography or location or position) and measurement error (measurement error or measurement inaccuracy or misclassification or uncertainty): we reviewed all papers appearing before December 20, 2014. These papers and their citations were reviewed to identify the relevance to our review.

Results

We were able to define and classify spatial measurement errors into four groups: (1) pure spatial location measurement errors, including both non-instrumental errors (multiple addresses, geocoding errors, outcome aggregations, and covariate aggregation) and instrumental errors; (2) location-based outcome measurement error (purely outcome measurement errors and missing outcome measurements); (3) location-based covariate measurement errors (address proxies); and (4) Covariate-Outcome spatial misaligned measurement errors. We propose how these four classes of errors can be unified within an integrated theoretical model and possible solutions were discussed.

Conclusion

Spatial measurement errors are ubiquitous threat to the validity of spatial epidemiological studies. We propose a systematic framework for understanding the various mechanisms which generate spatial measurement errors and present practical examples of such errors.

Phenotypic diversity, population structure and stress protein-based capacitoring in populations of Xeropicta derbentina, a heat-tolerant land snail species

The shell colour of many pulmonate land snail species is highly diverse. Besides a genetic basis, environmentally triggered epigenetic mechanisms including stress proteins as evolutionary capacitors are thought to influence such phenotypic diversity. In this study, we investigated the relationship of stress protein (Hsp70) levels with temperature stress tolerance, population structure and phenotypic diversity within and among different populations of a xerophilic Mediterranean snail species (Xeropicta derbentina). Hsp70 levels varied considerably among populations, and were significantly associated with shell colour diversity: individuals in populations exhibiting low diversity expressed higher Hsp70 levels both constitutively and under heat stress than those of phenotypically diverse populations. In contrast, population structure (cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene) did not correlate with phenotypic diversity. However, genetic parameters (both within and among population differences) were able to explain variation in Hsp70 induction at elevated but non-pathologic temperatures. Our observation that (1) population structure had a high explanatory potential for Hsp70 induction and that (2) Hsp70 levels, in turn, correlated with phenotypic diversity while (3) population structure and phenotypic diversity failed to correlate provides empirical evidence for Hsp70 to act as a mediator between genotypic variation and phenotype and thus for chaperone-driven evolutionary capacitance in natural populations.

Geographical distribution of human Schistosoma japonicum infection in The Philippines: tools to support disease control and further elimination

Schistosoma japonicum infection is believed to be endemic in 28 of the 80 provinces of The Philippines and the most recent data on schistosomiasis prevalence have shown considerable variability between provinces. In order to increase the efficient allocation of parasitic disease control resources in the country, we aimed to describe the small-scale spatial variation in S. japonicum prevalence across The Philippines, quantify the role of the physical environment in driving the spatial variation of S. japonicum, and develop a predictive risk map of S. japonicum infection. Data on S. japonicum infection from 35,754 individuals across the country were geo-located at the barangay level and included in the analysis. The analysis was then stratified geographically for the regions of Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao. Zero-inflated binomial Bayesian geostatistical models of S. japonicum prevalence were developed and diagnostic uncertainty was incorporated. Results of the analysis show that in the three regions, males and individuals aged ⩾20years had significantly higher prevalence of S. japonicum compared with females and children <5years. The role of the environmental variables differed between regions of The Philippines. Schistosoma japonicum infection was widespread in the Visayas whereas it was much more focal in Luzon and Mindanao. This analysis revealed significant spatial variation in the prevalence of S. japonicum infection in The Philippines. This suggests that a spatially targeted approach to schistosomiasis interventions, including mass drug administration, is warranted. When financially possible, additional schistosomiasis surveys should be prioritised for areas identified to be at high risk but which were under-represented in our dataset.

Contamination of water resources by pathogenic bacteria

Water-borne pathogen contamination in water resources and related diseases are a major water quality concern throughout the world. Increasing interest in controlling water-borne pathogens in water resources evidenced by a large number of recent publications clearly attests to the need for studies that synthesize knowledge from multiple fields covering comparative aspects of pathogen contamination, and unify them in a single place in order to present and address the problem as a whole. Providing a broader perceptive of pathogen contamination in freshwater (rivers, lakes, reservoirs, groundwater) and saline water (estuaries and coastal waters) resources, this review paper attempts to develop the first comprehensive single source of existing information on pathogen contamination in multiple types of water resources. In addition, a comprehensive discussion describes the challenges associated with using indicator organisms. Potential impacts of water resources development on pathogen contamination as well as challenges that lie ahead for addressing pathogen contamination are also discussed.

Intraspecific variation in cellular and biochemical heat response strategies of Mediterranean Xeropicta derbentina [Pulmonata, Hygromiidae]

Dry and hot environments challenge the survival of terrestrial snails. To minimize overheating and desiccation, physiological and biochemical adaptations are of high importance for these animals. In the present study, seven populations of the Mediterranean land snail species Xeropicta derbentina were sampled from their natural habitat in order to investigate the intraspecific variation of cellular and biochemical mechanisms, which are assigned to contribute to heat resistance. Furthermore, we tested whether genetic parameters are correlated with these physiological heat stress response patterns. Specimens of each population were individually exposed to elevated temperatures (25 to 52°C) for 8 h in the laboratory. After exposure, the health condition of the snails' hepatopancreas was examined by means of qualitative description and semi-quantitative assessment of histopathological effects. In addition, the heat-shock protein 70 level (Hsp70) was determined. Generally, calcium cells of the hepatopancreas were more heat resistant than digestive cells - this phenomenon was associated with elevated Hsp70 levels at 40°C.We observed considerable variation in the snails' heat response strategy: Individuals from three populations invested much energy in producing a highly elevated Hsp70 level, whereas three other populations invested energy in moderate stress protein levels - both strategies were in association with cellular functionality. Furthermore, one population kept cellular condition stable despite a low Hsp70 level until 40°C exposure, whereas prominent cellular reactions were observed above this thermal limit. Genetic diversity (mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene) within populations was low. Nevertheless, when using genetic indices as explanatory variables in a multivariate regression tree (MRT) analysis, population structure explained mean differences in cellular and biochemical heat stress responses, especially in the group exposed to 40°C. Our study showed that, even in similar habitats within a close range, populations of the same species use different stress response strategies that all rendered survival possible.