Host outdoor exposure variability affects the transmission and spread of Zika virus: Insights for epidemic control

Effects of Hurricane Irma on mosquito abundance and species composition in a metropolitan Gulf coastal city, 2016-2018

Mosquitoes are the most common disease vectors worldwide. In coastal cities, the spread, activity, and longevity of vector mosquitoes are influenced by environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, and rainfall, which affect their geographic distribution, biting rates, and lifespan. We examined mosquito abundance and species composition before and after Hurricane Irma in Miami, Dade County, Florida, and identified which mosquito species predominated post-Hurricane Irma. Our results showed that mosquito populations increased post-Hurricane Irma: 7.3 and 8.0 times more mosquitoes were captured in 2017 than at baseline, 2016 and 2018 respectively. Warmer temperatures accelerated larval development, resulting in faster emergence of adult mosquitoes. In BG-Sentinel traps, primary species like Ae. tortills, Cx. nigripalpus, and Cx. quinquefasciatus dominated the post-Hurricane Irma period. Secondary vectors that dominated post-Hurricane Irma include An. atropos, An. crucians, An. quadrimaculatus, Cx. erraticus, and Ps. columbiae. After Hurricane Irma, the surge in mosquito populations in Miami, Florida heightened disease risk. To mitigate and prevent future risks, we must enhance surveillance, raise public awareness, and implement targeted vector control measures.

Spatiotemporal distribution of vector mosquito species and areas at risk for arbovirus transmission in Maricopa County, Arizona

Mosquito-borne diseases are a major global public health concern and mosquito surveillance systems are essential for the implementation of effective mosquito control strategies. The objective of our study is to determine the spatiotemporal distribution of vector mosquito species in Maricopa County, AZ from 2011 to 2021, and to identify the hotspot areas for West Nile virus (WNV) and St. Louis Encephalitis virus (SLEV) transmission in 2021. The Maricopa County Mosquito Control surveillance system utilizes BG-Sentinel and EVS-CDC traps throughout the entire urban and suburban areas of the county. We estimated specific mosquito species relative abundance per unit area using the Kernel density estimator in ArcGIS 10.2. We calculated the distance between all traps in the surveillance system and created a 4 km buffer radius around each trap to calculate the extent to which each trap deviated from the mean number of Culex quinquefasciatus and Culex tarsalis collected in 2021. Our results show that vector mosquito species are widely distributed and abundant in the urban areas of Maricopa County. A total of 691,170Cx. quinquefasciatus, 542,733 Cx. tarsalis, and 292,305 Aedes aegypti were collected from 2011 to 2022. The relative abundance of Ae. aegypti was highly seasonal peaking in the third and fourth quarters of the year. Culex quinquefasciatus, on the other hand, was abundant throughout the year with several regions consistently yielding high numbers of mosquitoes. Culex tarsalis was abundant but it only reached high numbers in well-defined areas near irrigated landscapes. We also detected high levels of heterogeneity in the risk of WNV and SLEV transmission to humans disregarding traps geographical proximity. The well-defined species-specific spatiotemporal and geographical patterns found in this study can be used to inform vector control operations.

Diel activity patterns of vector mosquito species in the urban environment: Implications for vector control strategies

Mathematical models have been widely used to study the population dynamics of mosquitoes as well as to test and validate the effectiveness of arbovirus outbreak responses and mosquito control strategies. The objective of this study is to assess the diel activity of mosquitoes in Miami-Dade, Florida, and Brownsville, Texas, the most affected areas during the Zika outbreak in 2016-2017, and to evaluate the effectiveness of simulated adulticide treatments on local mosquito populations. To assess variations in the diel activity patterns, mosquitoes were collected hourly for 96 hours once a month from May through November 2019 in Miami-Dade County, Florida, and Brownsville, Texas. We then performed a PERMANOVA followed by a SIMPER analysis to assess whether the abundance and species richness significantly varies at different hours of the day. Finally, we used a mathematical model to simulate the population dynamics of 5 mosquito vector species and evaluate the effectiveness of the simulated adulticide applications. A total of 14,502 mosquitoes comprising 17 species were collected in Brownsville and 10,948 mosquitoes comprising 19 species were collected in Miami-Dade County. Aedes aegypti was the most common mosquito species collected every hour in both cities and peaking in abundance in the morning and the evening. Our modeling results indicate that the effectiveness of adulticide applications varied greatly depending on the hour of the treatment. In both study locations, 9 PM was the best time for adulticide applications targeting all mosquito vector species; mornings/afternoons (9 AM- 5 PM) yielded low effectiveness, especially for Culex species, while at night (12 AM- 6 AM) the effectiveness was particularly low for Aedes species. Our results indicate that the timing of adulticide spraying interventions should be carefully considered by local authorities based on the ecology of the target mosquito species in the focus area.

Urbanization favors the proliferation of Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus in urban areas of Miami-Dade County, Florida

Urbanization processes are increasing globally. Anthropogenic alterations in the environment have profound effects on biodiversity. Decreased biodiversity due to biotic homogenization processes as a consequence of urbanization often result in increased levels of mosquito vector species and vector-borne pathogen transmission. Understanding how anthropogenic alterations in the environment will affect the abundance, richness, and composition of vector mosquito species is crucial for the implementation of effective and targeted mosquito control strategies. We hypothesized that anthropogenic alterations in the environment are responsible for increasing the abundance of mosquito species that are adapted to urban environments such as Aedesaegypti and Culexquinquefasciatus. Therefore, our objective was to survey mosquito relative abundance, richness, and community composition in Miami-Dade County, Florida, in areas with different levels of urbanization. We selected 24 areas, 16 remote areas comprised of natural and rural areas, and 8 urban areas comprised of residential and touristic areas in Miami-Dade County, Florida. Mosquitoes were collected weekly in each area for 24 h for 5 consecutive weeks from August to October 2020 using BG-Sentinel traps baited with dry ice. A total of 36,645 mosquitoes were collected, from which 34,048 were collected in the remote areas and 2,597 in the urban areas. Our results show a clear and well-defined pattern of abundance, richness, and community composition according to anthropogenic modifications in land use and land cover. The more urbanized a given area the fewer species were found and those were primary vectors of arboviruses, Ae.aegypti and Cx.quinquefasciatus.

A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making

West Nile virus (WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics. However, these modeling efforts have been disjointed with little model comparison and inconsistent validation. In this paper, we describe a framework to unify and standardize WNV modeling efforts nationwide. WNV risk, detection, or warning models for this review were solicited from active research groups working in different regions of the United States. A total of 13 models were selected and described. The spatial and temporal scales of each model were compared to guide the timing and the locations for mosquito and virus surveillance, to support mosquito vector control decisions, and to assist in conducting public health outreach campaigns at multiple scales of decision-making. Our overarching goal is to bridge the existing gap between model development, which is usually conducted as an academic exercise, and practical model applications, which occur at state, tribal, local, or territorial public health and mosquito control agency levels. The proposed model assessment and comparison framework helps clarify the value of individual models for decision-making and identifies the appropriate temporal and spatial scope of each model. This qualitative evaluation clearly identifies gaps in linking models to applied decisions and sets the stage for a quantitative comparison of models. Specifically, whereas many coarse-grained models (county resolution or greater) have been developed, the greatest need is for fine-grained, short-term planning models (m-km, days-weeks) that remain scarce. We further recommend quantifying the value of information for each decision to identify decisions that would benefit most from model input.

Invasion, establishment, and spread of invasive mosquitoes from the Culex coronator complex in urban areas of Miami-Dade County, Florida

Species from the Culex coronator complex are Neotropical species and potential vectors of Saint Louis and West Nile viruses. Culex coronator was first described in Trinidad and Tobago in the early twentieth century and since then it has invaded and has been reported established in most countries of the Americas. Species from the Culex coronator complex were first detected in the United States in the state of Louisiana in 2004 and were subsequently detected in Florida in 2005, reaching Miami-Dade County in 2008. We hypothesize that species from the Cx. coronator complex are adapting to urban environments in Miami-Dade County, Florida, and are becoming more present and abundant in these areas. Therefore, our objective was to investigate the patterns of the presence and abundance of species from the Cx. coronator complex in the urban areas of Miami-Dade County. Here we used weekly data comprised of 32 CDC traps from 2012 to 2020 and 150 BG-Sentinel traps from 2016 to 2020. A total of 34,146 female mosquitoes from the Cx. coronator complex were collected, 26,138 by CDC traps and 8008 by BG-Sentinel traps. While the number of CDC traps that were positive was relatively constant at 26–30 positive traps per year, the number of positive BG-Sentinel traps varied substantially from 50 to 87 positive traps per year. Furthermore, the heat map and logistic general linear model for repeated measures analyses showed a significant increase in both the distribution and abundance of mosquitoes from the Cx. coronator complex, indicating that these species are becoming more common in anthropized habitats being able to thrive in highly urbanized areas. The increase in the distribution and abundance of species from the Cx. coronator complex is a major public health concern. The ability of species from the Cx. coronator complex to benefit from urbanization highlights the need to better understand the mechanisms of how invasive vector mosquito species are adapting and exploiting urban habitats.

Fighting mosquito bite during a crisis: capabilities of Florida mosquito control districts during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

The stay-at-home orders imposed in early April 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic in various states complicated mosquito control activities across the United States (US), and Florida was no exception. Mosquito control programs are the first line of defense against mosquito-borne pathogens. The purpose of this study was to examine the capabilities of Florida mosquito programs to implement key mosquito measures during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown.

METHODS

Using a self-administered online survey, we examined the capabilities of all Florida mosquito control programs (both state-approved mosquito districts, N = 63; and open programs, N = 27) at a time when the state of Florida was still under heightened awareness of, stay-at-home orders and planning a phase 1 reopening over the COVID-19 pandemic (June to July 2020). The final sample included mosquito control programs structured as the Board of County Commissioners (BOCC) (n = 42), independent tax district (n = 16), municipal (n = 10), and health or emergency department (n = 5). We used descriptive statistics to summarize information about the characteristics of responding programs, their implemented mosquito control and surveillance activities.  wWe used bivariate analysis to compare the characteristics of responding programs and the self-reported mosquito measures.

RESULTS

Of the recruited mosquito control programs, 73 completed the survey (81.1% response rate; 73/90). Of these, 57.5% (n = 42) were Board of County Commissioners (BOCC) mosquito control programs, 21.9% (n = 16) were independent tax district programs, 13.7% (n = 10) were municipal mosquito control programs, and only 6.8% (n = 5) were either health or emergency department mosquito control programs. Except for arbovirus surveillance, most programs either fully or partially performed larval (61.8%) and adult (78.9%) surveillance; most programs conducted species-specific control for Aedes aegypti (85.2%, n = 54), Aedes albopictus (87.3%, n = 55), Culex quinquefasciatus (92.1%, n = 58), and Culex nigripalpus (91.9%, n = 57).

CONCLUSIONS

Findings underscore the importance of ongoing mosquito control activities, and suggest that Florida mosquito control programs are vigilant and have significant capability to handle potential mosquito-borne disease threats, but arbovirus surveillance systems (laboratory testing of mosquito pools and testing of human and nonhuman specimens for arboviruses) are needed during pandemics as well.

Effectiveness of adulticide and larvicide in controlling high densities of Aedes aegypti in urban environments

Current management and control of Aedes aegypti populations in urban areas are based on the spraying of insecticides. Here, we evaluated the effectiveness of spraying larvicide (Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis) using a truck-mounted Buffalo Turbine and adulticide (Deltamethrin) using a Grizzly ULV Sprayer in an urban area with high densities of Ae. aegypti and many cryptic and difficult to reach aquatic breeding habitats. Experiments were conducted in a tire shop located in Miami-Dade County, Florida with approximately 100,000 used airplane tires. Insecticide interventions were performed after a baseline survey consisting of 3 weeks of collections, followed by two insecticide interventions: (i) application of the adulticide followed by the application of larvicide on the subsequent week; and (ii) application of both adulticide and larvicide on two consecutive weeks. The first insecticide intervention resulted in a non-significant decrease in the relative abundance of Ae. aegypti. On the other hand, the second insecticide intervention significantly reduced the Ae. aegypti relative abundance (P < 0.002). Our results demonstrated that the combined insecticide interventions on two consecutive weeks significantly reduced the relative abundance of Ae. aegypti. This result indicated that the larvicide was successfully propelled reaching cryptical and difficult to reach aquatic habitats. However, even though the number of mosquitoes was greatly reduced, it was still greatly above the 10-mosquito threshold by trap night used by the Miami-Dade Mosquito Control Division to deploy an inspector to survey the area. Considering the lack of new and effective mosquito control tools, efficient and mobile insecticide propellers such as Buffalo Turbine can be of great help to manage mosquito populations in urban areas.

Proliferation of Aedes aegypti in urban environments mediated by the availability of key aquatic habitats

Aedes aegypti is the main vector of dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever viruses. Controlling populations of vector mosquito species in urban environments is a major challenge and being able to determine what aquatic habitats should be prioritized for controlling Ae. aegypti populations is key to the development of more effective mosquito control strategies. Therefore, our objective was to leverage on the Miami-Dade County, Florida immature mosquito surveillance system based on requested by citizen complaints through 311 calls to determine what are the most important aquatic habitats in the proliferation of Ae. aegypti in Miami. We used a tobit model for Ae. aegypti larvae and pupae count data, type and count of aquatic habitats, and daily rainfall. Our results revealed that storm drains had 45% lower percentage of Ae. aegypti larvae over the total of larvae and pupae adjusted for daily rainfall when compared to tires, followed by bromeliads with 33% and garbage cans with 17%. These results are indicating that storm drains, bromeliads and garbage cans had significantly more pupae in relation to larvae when compared to tires, traditionally know as productive aquatic habitats for Ae. aegypti. Ultimately, the methodology and results from this study can be used by mosquito control agencies to identify habitats that should be prioritized in mosquito management and control actions, as well as to guide and improve policies and increase community awareness and engagement. Moreover, by targeting the most productive aquatic habitats this approach will allow the development of critical emergency outbreak responses by directing the control response efforts to the most productive aquatic habitats.

A Survey of Program Capacity and Skills of Florida Mosquito Control Districts to Conduct Arbovirus Surveillance and Control

Effective and efficient surveillance systems are key for preventing arthropod-borne diseases. We examined the capacity of Florida mosquito control districts (both state-approved and open programs, n = 90; 48.9% response rate). Questions centered on budgets, staffing levels, equipment, vector control measures, and staff perceptions of own agency's capacity to implement routine surveillance and vector control activities. Bivariate analyses indicate that districts with relatively large budgets have advanced capacities regarding staffing levels, employee specialties, mosquito control equipment, conduct routine surveillance and vector control yet they serve only a small proportion of the population. Independent tax districts' average annual budgets were 9 times higher than Board of County Commissioners programs in fiscal year 2017-18. Most respondents indicated that staff is appropriately trained, and has timely access to information and needed equipment for mosquito surveillance and control. Slightly more than half of respondents feel they are understaffed. Perceived understaffing may compromise mosquito surveillance and control efforts in some districts.

Urban farms in Miami-Dade county, Florida have favorable environments for vector mosquitoes

The creation of urban farms in complex urban built environments may create suitable local conditions for vector mosquitoes. Urban farms have been implicated in the proliferation of mosquitoes in Africa, but there is a dearth in the knowledge of their role in the proliferation of mosquitoes elsewhere. In this study, we surveyed two urban farms in Miami-Dade County, Florida. Our results show that urban farms provide favorable conditions for populations of vector mosquito species by providing a wide range of essential resources such as larval habitats, suitable outdoor resting sites, sugar-feeding centers, and available hosts for blood-feeding. A total of 2,185 specimens comprising 12 species of mosquitoes were collected over 7 weeks. The results varied greatly according to the urban farm. At the Wynwood urban farm, 1,016 specimens were collected but were distributed only between 3 species; while the total number of specimens collected at the Golden Glades urban farm was 1,168 specimens comprising 12 species. The presence of vector mosquitoes in urban farms may represent a new challenge for the development of effective strategies to control populations of vector mosquito species in urban areas.

Cemeteries in Miami-Dade County, Florida are important areas to be targeted in mosquito management and control efforts

Definable habitats at the neighborhood level provide a wide range of favorable habitats with optimal conditions and environmental resources for mosquito survival. Problematic habitats for controlling mosquitoes in urban environments such as tire shops, bromeliad patches, and construction sites must be taken into consideration in the development of effective mosquito management and control in urban areas. Cemeteries are often located in highly urbanized areas serving as a haven for populations of vector mosquito species due to the availability of natural resources present in most cemeteries. Even though Miami-Dade County, Florida was the most affected area in the United States during the Zika virus outbreak in 2016 and is currently under a mosquito-borne illness alert after 14 confirmed locally transmitted dengue cases, the role of cemeteries in the proliferation of vector mosquitoes is unknown. Therefore, our objective was to use a cross-sectional experimental design to survey twelve cemeteries across Miami-Dade County to assess if vector mosquitoes in Miami can be found in these areas. Our results are indicating that vector mosquitoes are able to successfully exploit the resources available in the cemeteries. Culex quinquefasciatus was the most abundant species but it was neither as frequent nor present in its immature form as Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. This study revealed that vector mosquitoes, such as Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus, and Cx. quinquefasciatus are successfully exploiting the resources available in these areas being able to thrive and reach high numbers. Mosquito control strategies should consider both long-term strategies, based on changing human behavior to reduce the availability of aquatic habitats for vector mosquitoes; as well as short-term strategies such as drilling holes or adding larvicide to the flower vases. Simple practices would greatly help improve the effectiveness of mosquito management and control in these problematic urban habitats.

A systematic review and evaluation of Zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern

INTRODUCTION

Epidemic forecasting and prediction tools have the potential to provide actionable information in the midst of emerging epidemics. While numerous predictive studies were published during the 2016-2017 Zika Virus (ZIKV) pandemic, it remains unknown how timely, reproducible, and actionable the information produced by these studies was.

METHODS

To improve the functional use of mathematical modeling in support of future infectious disease outbreaks, we conducted a systematic review of all ZIKV prediction studies published during the recent ZIKV pandemic using the PRISMA guidelines. Using MEDLINE, EMBASE, and grey literature review, we identified studies that forecasted, predicted, or simulated ecological or epidemiological phenomena related to the Zika pandemic that were published as of March 01, 2017. Eligible studies underwent evaluation of objectives, data sources, methods, timeliness, reproducibility, accessibility, and clarity by independent reviewers.

RESULTS

2034 studies were identified, of which n = 73 met the eligibility criteria. Spatial spread, R0 (basic reproductive number), and epidemic dynamics were most commonly predicted, with few studies predicting Guillain-Barré Syndrome burden (4%), sexual transmission risk (4%), and intervention impact (4%). Most studies specifically examined populations in the Americas (52%), with few African-specific studies (4%). Case count (67%), vector (41%), and demographic data (37%) were the most common data sources. Real-time internet data and pathogen genomic information were used in 7% and 0% of studies, respectively, and social science and behavioral data were typically absent in modeling efforts. Deterministic models were favored over stochastic approaches. Forty percent of studies made model data entirely available, 29% provided all relevant model code, 43% presented uncertainty in all predictions, and 54% provided sufficient methodological detail to allow complete reproducibility. Fifty-one percent of predictions were published after the epidemic peak in the Americas. While the use of preprints improved the accessibility of ZIKV predictions by a median of 119 days sooner than journal publication dates, they were used in only 30% of studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Many ZIKV predictions were published during the 2016-2017 pandemic. The accessibility, reproducibility, timeliness, and incorporation of uncertainty in these published predictions varied and indicates there is substantial room for improvement. To enhance the utility of analytical tools for outbreak response it is essential to improve the sharing of model data, code, and preprints for future outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics.

Impact of population displacement and forced movements on the transmission and outbreaks of Aedes-borne viral diseases: Dengue as a model

Population displacement and other forced movement patterns following natural disasters, armed conflicts or due to socioeconomic reasons contribute to the global emergence of Aedes-borne viral disease epidemics. In particular, dengue epidemiology is critically affected by situations of displacement and forced movement patterns, particularly within and across borders. In this respect, waves of human movements have been a major driver for the changing epidemiology and outbreaks of the disease on local, regional and global scales. Both emerging dengue autochthonous transmission and outbreaks in countries known to be non-endemic and co-circulation and hyperendemicity with multiple dengue virus serotypes have led to the emergence of severe disease forms such as dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome. This paper reviews the emergence of dengue outbreaks driven by population displacement and forced movements following natural disasters and conflicts within the context of regional and sub-regional groupings.

Estimating Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Aedes Albopictus Dispersal to Guide Control Interventions in Case of Exotic Arboviruses in Temperate Regions

The increasing number of exotic arbovirus cases imported in Europe and the 2017 chikungunya outbreak in central/southern Italy highlight the urgency of evidence-based outbreak management plans to predict, prevent or interrupt spreading of these arboviruses to non-endemic countries in temperate regions. We here present the results of three mark-release-recapture experiments conducted in a peri-urban area of North-East Italy to estimate the spatio-temporal dynamics of the dispersal of Aedes albopictus females looking for oviposition sites. The Flight Range of 90% of the mosquito population (FR₉₀) was found to exceed 200 m, consistently with data obtained from a previous study conducted in a highly urbanised area in Rome (Central Italy). Modelling results showed that dispersal can be so rapid that insecticide spraying within a 200m-radius around a potential infected case leaves >10% probability that a potentially infected mosquito escapes the treatment, even if this is carried out after only 2–3 days since the importation of a viremic case. These data provide evidence in favour of an update of guidelines for the control of exotic autochthonous arbovirus transmission in temperate areas and highlight the need of effective surveillance approaches and rapid response to contain the risks associated to imported viremic cases.

Mosquito Adaptation to the Extreme Habitats of Urban Construction Sites

The construction industry employs millions of workers in the USA. However, little is known about how environmental disturbances caused by the construction industry impacts vector mosquito ecology and behavior, and whether it is responsible for increasing the abundance of mosquitoes. There is a major scientific gap on how to assess the occupational exposure risk of mosquito biting and arbovirus transmission among outdoor worker populations who spend a disproportionate amount of time working outdoors. In our opinion, it is critical to address how construction workers and the surrounding communities may be geographically and seasonally exposed to vector mosquitoes. Research should identify modifiable worker- and organizational-level factors that improve worksite mosquito-control practices to give insights into future vector-control strategies in urban environments.

Diel activity patterns of adult female mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) determined by a novel rotated trap in northeastern Florida, U.S.A

A novel rotator trap was evaluated to determine the diel activity patterns and physiological state of adult female mosquitoes in St. Augustine, FL, U.S.A. Culex nigripalpus were most active from 19:00-21:00, followed by 1:00-3:00, based on collections from the novel rotator trap. Furthermore, analysis of the physiological state of female mosquitoes collected by the novel rotator trap suggested that non-parous (nulliparous) host-seeking mosquitoes were more frequently active in the 21:00-23:00 and 09:00-19:00 time frames. Parous host-seeking mosquitoes were more frequently collected from 19:00-21:00 and 1:00-3:00. A low abundance of gravid females was collected by the rotator trap, so analysis of their activity periods was inconclusive. These results indicate that the novel rotated trap could be used to detect the diel activity patterns of adult mosquitoes in mosquito control programs and more testing should be conducted in the future.

Perceptions of Zika Virus Risk during 2016 Outbreak, Miami-Dade County, Florida, USA

We conducted a survey on Zika virus perceptions and behaviors during the 2016 outbreak in Miami-Dade County, Florida, USA. Among women, Zika knowledge was associated with having a bachelor’s degree. Among men, knowledge was associated with knowing someone at risk. Interventions during future outbreaks could be targeted by sex and education level.

Quantifying the risk of local Zika virus transmission in the contiguous US during the 2015-2016 ZIKV epidemic

BACKGROUND

Local mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission has been reported in two counties in the contiguous United States (US), prompting the issuance of travel, prevention, and testing guidance across the contiguous US. Large uncertainty, however, surrounds the quantification of the actual risk of ZIKV introduction and autochthonous transmission across different areas of the US.

METHODS

We present a framework for the projection of ZIKV autochthonous transmission in the contiguous US during the 2015-2016 epidemic using a data-driven stochastic and spatial epidemic model accounting for seasonal, environmental, and detailed population data. The model generates an ensemble of travel-related case counts and simulates their potential to have triggered local transmission at the individual level in the 2015-2016 ZIKV epidemic.

RESULTS

We estimate the risk of ZIKV introduction and local transmission at the county level and at the 0.025° × 0.025° cell level across the contiguous US. We provide a risk measure based on the probability of observing local transmission in a specific location during a ZIKV epidemic modeled after the epidemic observed during the years 2015-2016. The high spatial and temporal resolution of the model allows us to generate statistical estimates of the number of ZIKV introductions leading to local transmission in each location. We find that the risk was spatially heterogeneously distributed and concentrated in a few specific areas that account for less than 1% of the contiguous US population. Locations in Texas and Florida that have actually experienced local ZIKV transmission were among the places at highest risk according to our results. We also provide an analysis of the key determinants for local transmission and identify the key introduction routes and their contributions to ZIKV transmission in the contiguous US.

CONCLUSIONS

This framework provides quantitative risk estimates, fully captures the stochasticity of ZIKV introduction events, and is not biased by the under-ascertainment of cases due to asymptomatic cases. It provides general information on key risk determinants and data with potential uses in defining public health recommendations and guidance about ZIKV risk in the US.

Ornamental bromeliads of Miami-Dade County, Florida are important breeding sites for Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae)

BACKGROUND

A major public health concern is the emergence and geographical spread of vector-borne diseases such as Zika and yellow fever. Ornamental bromeliads retaining water in their leaf axils represent potential breeding sites for mosquitoes. As the role of ornamental bromeliads in breeding Aedes aegypti in Miami-Dade County, Florida is unknown, we hypothesize that ornamental bromeliads are important breeding sites for Ae. aegypti. Our objective was to survey bromeliads in areas with high densities of adult Ae. aegypti, including those with 2016 local transmission of Zika virus.

METHODS

Ornamental bromeliads were surveyed for the presence of immature mosquitoes at 51 locations of Miami-Dade County, Florida. Bromeliads were sampled for the presence of immature stages of mosquitoes, their reservoirs were drained and screened for the presence of immature mosquitoes. Immature mosquitoes were stored in plastic containers and preserved in 70% ethanol until morphological identification. Biodiversity of species assemblages was assessed by Shannon's and Simpson's indices, and individual rarefaction curves and plots of cumulative abundance, Shannon's index and evenness profiles.

RESULTS

Ornamental bromeliads were present in all surveyed areas, yielding a total of 765 immature mosquitoes, comprising five taxonomic units: Ae. aegypti, Wyeomyia mitchellii, Wyeomyia vanduzeei, Culex quinquefasciatus and Culex biscaynensis. The biodiversity indices point to a low diversity scenario with a highly dominant species, Ae. aegypti.

DISCUSSION

Our findings suggest that ornamental bromeliads are contributing for the proliferation of Ae. aegypti in the County of Miami-Dade, which may indicate a shift in the paradigm of usage of bromeliads as breeding sites, highlighting that ornamental phytotelmata bromeliads are to be considered in future vector-control strategies to control Zika and other arboviruses.

Consensus and conflict among ecological forecasts of Zika virus outbreaks in the United States

Ecologists are increasingly involved in the pandemic prediction process. In the course of the Zika outbreak in the Americas, several ecological models were developed to forecast the potential global distribution of the disease. Conflicting results produced by alternative methods are unresolved, hindering the development of appropriate public health forecasts. We compare ecological niche models and experimentally-driven mechanistic forecasts for Zika transmission in the continental United States. We use generic and uninformed stochastic county-level simulations to demonstrate the downstream epidemiological consequences of conflict among ecological models, and show how assumptions and parameterization in the ecological and epidemiological models propagate uncertainty and produce downstream model conflict. We conclude by proposing a basic consensus method that could resolve conflicting models of potential outbreak geography and seasonality. Our results illustrate the usually-undocumented margin of uncertainty that could emerge from using any one of these predictions without reservation or qualification. In the short term, ecologists face the task of developing better post hoc consensus that accurately forecasts spatial patterns of Zika virus outbreaks. Ultimately, methods are needed that bridge the gap between ecological and epidemiological approaches to predicting transmission and realistically capture both outbreak size and geography.

Inferring the risk factors behind the geographical spread and transmission of Zika in the Americas

BACKGROUND

An unprecedented Zika virus epidemic occurred in the Americas during 2015-2016. The size of the epidemic in conjunction with newly recognized health risks associated with the virus attracted significant attention across the research community. Our study complements several recent studies which have mapped epidemiological elements of Zika, by introducing a newly proposed methodology to simultaneously estimate the contribution of various risk factors for geographic spread resulting in local transmission and to compute the risk of spread (or re-introductions) between each pair of regions. The focus of our analysis is on the Americas, where the set of regions includes all countries, overseas territories, and the states of the US.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We present a novel application of the Generalized Inverse Infection Model (GIIM). The GIIM model uses real observations from the outbreak and seeks to estimate the risk factors driving transmission. The observations are derived from the dates of reported local transmission of Zika virus in each region, the network structure is defined by the passenger air travel movements between all pairs of regions, and the risk factors considered include regional socioeconomic factors, vector habitat suitability, travel volumes, and epidemiological data. The GIIM relies on a multi-agent based optimization method to estimate the parameters, and utilizes a data driven stochastic-dynamic epidemic model for evaluation. As expected, we found that mosquito abundance, incidence rate at the origin region, and human population density are risk factors for Zika virus transmission and spread. Surprisingly, air passenger volume was less impactful, and the most significant factor was (a negative relationship with) the regional gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our model generates country level exportation and importation risk profiles over the course of the epidemic and provides quantitative estimates for the likelihood of introduced Zika virus resulting in local transmission, between all origin-destination travel pairs in the Americas. Our findings indicate that local vector control, rather than travel restrictions, will be more effective at reducing the risks of Zika virus transmission and establishment. Moreover, the inverse relationship between Zika virus transmission and GDP suggests that Zika cases are more likely to occur in regions where people cannot afford to protect themselves from mosquitoes. The modeling framework is not specific for Zika virus, and could easily be employed for other vector-borne pathogens with sufficient epidemiological and entomological data.

Post-earthquake Zika virus surge: Disaster and public health threat amid climatic conduciveness

A recent major earthquake (M7.8), coupled with appropriate climatic conditions, led to significant destruction in Ecuador. Temperature variations, which may be induced by anthropogenic climate change, are often associated with changes in rainfall, humidity and pressure. Temperature and humidity are associated with ecological modifications that may favour mosquito breeding. We hypothesized that the disruptive ecological changes triggered by the earthquake, in the context of appropriate climatic conditions, led to an upsurge in Zika virus (ZIKV) infections. Here we show that, after controlling for climatic and socioeconomic conditions, earthquake severity was associated with incident ZIKV cases. Pre-earthquake mean maximum monthly temperature and post-earthquake mean monthly pressure were negatively associated with ZIKV incidence rates. These results demonstrate the dynamics of post-disaster vector-borne disease transmission, in the context of conducive/favourable climatic conditions, which are relevant in a climate change-affected world where disasters may occur in largely populated areas.