Development of standard clinical endpoints for use in dengue interventional trials

Dengue viremia kinetics and effects on platelet count and clinical outcomes: An analysis of 2340 patients from Vietnam

Background

Viremia is a critical factor in understanding the pathogenesis of dengue infection, but limited data exist on viremia kinetics. This study aimed to investigate the kinetics of viremia and its effects on subsequent platelet count, severe dengue, and plasma leakage.

Methods

We pooled data from three studies conducted in Vietnam between 2000 and 2016, involving 2340 dengue patients with daily viremia measurements and platelet counts after symptom onset. Viremia kinetics were assessed using a random effects model that accounted for left-censored data. The effects of viremia on subsequent platelet count and clinical outcomes were examined using a landmark approach with a random effects model and logistic regression model with generalized estimating equations, respectively. The rate of viremia decline was derived from the model of viremia kinetics. Its effect on the clinical outcomes was assessed by logistic regression models.

Results

Viremia levels rapidly decreased following symptom onset, with variations observed depending on the infecting serotype. DENV-1 exhibited the highest mean viremia levels during the first 5-6 days, while DENV-4 demonstrated the shortest clearance time. Higher viremia levels were associated with decreased subsequent platelet counts from day 6 onwards. Elevated viremia levels on each illness day increased the risk of developing severe dengue and plasma leakage. However, the effect size decreased with later illness days. A more rapid decline in viremia is associated with a reduced risk of the clinical outcomes.

Conclusions

This study provides comprehensive insights into viremia kinetics and its effect on subsequent platelet count and clinical outcomes in dengue patients. Our findings underscore the importance of measuring viremia levels during the early febrile phase for dengue studies and support the use of viremia kinetics as outcome for phase-2 dengue therapeutic trials.

Funding

Wellcome Trust and European Union Seventh Framework Programme.

Dengue

Dengue, caused by four closely related viruses, is a growing global public health concern, with outbreaks capable of overwhelming health-care systems and disrupting economies. Dengue is endemic in more than 100 countries across tropical and subtropical regions worldwide, and the expanding range of the mosquito vector, affected in part by climate change, increases risk in new areas such as Spain, Portugal, and the southern USA, while emerging evidence points to silent epidemics in Africa. Substantial advances in our understanding of the virus, immune responses, and disease progression have been made within the past decade. Novel interventions have emerged, including partially effective vaccines and innovative mosquito control strategies, although a reliable immune correlate of protection remains a challenge for the assessment of vaccines. These developments mark the beginning of a new era in dengue prevention and control, offering promise in addressing this pressing global health issue.

Global and cell type-specific immunological hallmarks of severe dengue progression identified via a systems immunology approach

Severe dengue (SD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. To define dengue virus (DENV) target cells and immunological hallmarks of SD progression in children's blood, we integrated two single-cell approaches capturing cellular and viral elements: virus-inclusive single-cell RNA sequencing (viscRNA-Seq 2) and targeted proteomics with secretome analysis and functional assays. Beyond myeloid cells, in natural infection, B cells harbor replicating DENV capable of infecting permissive cells. Alterations in cell type abundance, gene and protein expression and secretion as well as cell-cell communications point towards increased immune cell migration and inflammation in SD progressors. Concurrently, antigen-presenting cells from SD progressors demonstrate intact uptake yet impaired interferon response and antigen processing and presentation signatures, which are partly modulated by DENV. Increased activation, regulation and exhaustion of effector responses and expansion of HLA-DR-expressing adaptive-like NK cells also characterize SD progressors. These findings reveal DENV target cells in human blood and provide insight into SD pathogenesis beyond antibody-mediated enhancement.

A predictive score for severity in patients with confirmed dengue fever in a tertiary care hospital in Kerala, India

BACKGROUND

The study aimed to identify predictors of severe dengue during the 2017 epidemic and to develop and validate a simple predictive score for severity.

METHODS

A retrospective analytical study was conducted using clinical and laboratory data from adult dengue patients with a confirmed microbiological diagnosis. The study included patients who presented to a tertiary care centre in Kerala, India, during the febrile phase (≤4 d) between June 2017 and February 2019. Using appropriate statistical tests, we derived predictors of severe disease and computed a risk score model.

RESULTS

Of the 153 patients (mean age 50±17 y; 64% males), 31 (20%) had severe dengue and 4 (3%) died. Petechial lesions, hypoalbuminemia (<3.5 g/dl), elevated alanine aminotransferase (>40 IU/l) and urea >40 IU/l were significant predictors. Our scoring system (cut-off: 2) showed excellent performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.9741, sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 96% and accuracy of 98%. The risk score was secondarily validated on 48 patients hospitalized from March 2019 to June 2019.

CONCLUSION

Our scoring system is easy to implement and will help primary healthcare practitioners in promptly identifying severe dengue cases upon hospital presentation.

Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes Among Travelers With Severe Dengue : A GeoSentinel Analysis

BACKGROUND

Dengue virus is a flavivirus transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes and is an important cause of illness worldwide. Data on the severity of travel-associated dengue illness are limited.

OBJECTIVE

To describe the epidemiology, clinical characteristics, and outcomes among international travelers with severe dengue or dengue with warning signs as defined by the 2009 World Health Organization classification (that is, complicated dengue).

DESIGN

Retrospective chart review and analysis of travelers with complicated dengue reported to GeoSentinel from January 2007 through July 2022.

SETTING

20 of 71 international GeoSentinel sites.

PATIENTS

Returning travelers with complicated dengue.

MEASUREMENTS

Routinely collected surveillance data plus chart review with abstraction of clinical information using predefined grading criteria to characterize the manifestations of complicated dengue.

RESULTS

Of 5958 patients with dengue, 95 (2%) had complicated dengue. Eighty-six (91%) patients had a supplemental questionnaire completed. Eighty-five of 86 (99%) patients had warning signs, and 27 (31%) were classified as severe. Median age was 34 years (range, 8 to 91 years); 48 (56%) were female. Patients acquired dengue most frequently in the Caribbean (n = 27 [31%]) and Southeast Asia (n = 21 [24%]). Frequent reasons for travel were tourism (46%) and visiting friends and relatives (32%). Twenty-one of 84 (25%) patients had comorbidities. Seventy-eight (91%) patients were hospitalized. One patient died of nondengue-related illnesses. Common laboratory findings and signs were thrombocytopenia (78%), elevated aminotransferase (62%), bleeding (52%), and plasma leakage (20%). Among severe cases, ophthalmologic pathology (n = 3), severe liver disease (n = 3), myocarditis (n = 2), and neurologic symptoms (n = 2) were reported. Of 44 patients with serologic data, 32 confirmed cases were classified as primary dengue (IgM+/IgG-) and 12 as secondary (IgM-/IgG+) dengue.

LIMITATIONS

Data for some variables could not be retrieved by chart review for some patients. The generalizability of our observations may be limited.

CONCLUSION

Complicated dengue is relatively rare in travelers. Clinicians should monitor patients with dengue closely for warning signs that may indicate progression to severe disease. Risk factors for developing complications of dengue in travelers need further prospective study.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, International Society of Travel Medicine, Public Health Agency of Canada, and GeoSentinel Foundation.

Is new dengue vaccine efficacy data a relief or cause for concern?

Dengue is a major global public health problem requiring a safe and efficacious vaccine as the foundation of a comprehensive countermeasure strategy. Despite decades of attempts, the world has a single dengue vaccine licensed in numerous countries, but restrictions and conditions of its use have deterred uptake. Recently, clinical efficacy data has been revealed for two additional dengue vaccine candidates and the data appears encouraging. In this perspective I discuss dengue, the complexities of dengue vaccine development, early development setbacks, and how the latest data from the field may be cause for measured optimism. Finally, I provide some perspectives on evaluating dengue vaccine performance and how the pursuit of the perfect dengue vaccine may prevent advancement of vaccines which are good enough.

Comprehensive analysis of multivariable models for predicting severe dengue prognosis: systematic review and meta-analysis

Dengue fever has often been confused with other febrile diseases, with deterioration occurring in the later state. Many predictive models for disease progression have been developed, but there is no definite statistical model for clinical use yet. We retrieved relevant articles through Global Health, EMBASE, MEDLINE and CINAHL Plus. The Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool was adopted to assess potential bias and applicability. Statistical analysis was performed using Meta-DiSc software (version 1.4). Of 3184 research studies, 22 were included for the systematic review, of which 17 were selected for further meta-analysis. The pooled data of predictive accuracy was as follows: the sensitivity was 0.88 (95% CI 0.86 to 0.89), the specificity was 0.60 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.60), the positive likelihood ratio was 2.83 (95% CI 2.38 to 3.37), the negative likelihood ratio was 0.20 (95% CI 0.14 to 0.0.29) and the diagnostic OR was 16.31 (95% CI 10.25 to 25.94). The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve value was 0.86 (SE=0.02) with 0.79 (SE=0.02) of the Cochran Q test value. The overall predictive power of models in this study was relatively high. With careful adaption and standardization, the implementation of predictive models for severe dengue could be practical in actual clinical settings.

A modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score for dengue: development, evaluation and proposal for use in clinical trials

Background

Dengue is a neglected tropical disease, for which no therapeutic agents have shown clinical efficacy to date. Clinical trials have used strikingly variable clinical endpoints, which hampers reproducibility and comparability of findings. We investigated a delta modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (delta mSOFA) score as a uniform composite clinical endpoint for use in clinical trials investigating therapeutics for moderate and severe dengue.

Methods

We developed a modified SOFA score for dengue, measured and evaluated its performance at baseline and 48 h after enrolment in a prospective observational cohort of 124 adults admitted to a tertiary referral hospital in Vietnam with dengue shock. The modified SOFA score included pulse pressure in the cardiovascular component. Binary logistic regression, cox proportional hazard and linear regression models were used to estimate association between mSOFA, delta mSOFA and clinical outcomes.

Results

The analysis included 124 adults with dengue shock. 29 (23.4%) patients required ICU admission for organ support or due to persistent haemodynamic instability: 9/124 (7.3%) required mechanical ventilation, 8/124 (6.5%) required vasopressors, 6/124 (4.8%) required haemofiltration and 5/124 (4.0%) patients died. In univariate analyses, higher baseline and delta (48 h) mSOFA score for dengue were associated with admission to ICU, requirement for organ support and mortality, duration of ICU and hospital admission and IV fluid use.

Conclusions

The baseline and delta mSOFA scores for dengue performed well to discriminate patients with dengue shock by clinical outcomes, including duration of ICU and hospital admission, requirement for organ support and death. We plan to use delta mSOFA as the primary endpoint in an upcoming host-directed therapeutic trial and investigate the performance of this score in other phenotypes of severe dengue in adults and children.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07705-8.

Expert perspectives on the introduction of Triple Artemisinin-based Combination Therapies (TACTs) in Southeast Asia: a Delphi study

BACKGROUND

Triple Artemisinin-based Combination Therapies (TACTs) are being developed as a response to artemisinin and partner drug resistance in Southeast Asia. However, the desirability, timing and practical feasibility of introducing TACTs in Southeast Asia is subject to debate. This study systematically assesses perspectives of malaria experts towards the introduction of TACTs as first-line treatment for uncomplicated falciparum malaria in Southeast Asia.

METHODS

A two-round Delphi study was conducted. In the first round, 53 malaria experts answered open-ended questions on what they consider the most important advantages, disadvantages, and implementation barriers for introducing TACTs in Southeast Asia. In the second round, the expert panel rated the relevance of each statement on a 5-point Likert scale.

RESULTS

Malaria experts identified 15 advantages, 15 disadvantages and 13 implementation barriers for introducing TACTs in Southeast Asia in the first round of data collection. In the second round, consensus was reached on 13 advantages (8 perceived as relevant, 5 as not-relevant), 12 disadvantages (10 relevant, 2 not-relevant), and 13 implementation barriers (all relevant). Advantages attributed highest relevance related to the clinical and epidemiological rationale of introducing TACTs. Disadvantages attributed highest relevance related to increased side-effects, unavailability of fixed-dose TACTs, and potential cost increases. Implementation barriers attributed highest relevance related to obtaining timely regulatory approval, timely availability of fixed-dose TACTs, and generating global policy support for introducing TACTs.

CONCLUSIONS

The study provides a structured oversight of malaria experts' perceptions on the major advantages, disadvantages and implementation challenges for introducing TACTs in Southeast Asia, over current practices of rotating ACTs when treatment failure is observed. The findings can benefit strategic decision making in the battle against drug-resistant malaria.

Rotational thromboelastometry in critical phase of dengue infection: Association with bleeding

Background

The critical phase of dengue carries a high risk of bleeding. Associations of coagulation test parameters and the risk of bleeding in the critical phase is unclear. This study examines the association of rotational thromboelastometry (ROTEM delta and ROTEM platelet) with bleeding risk of patients with dengue in the critical phase.

Methods

A total of 105 patients with confirmed dengue in the critical phase were recruited, with two subsequent prospective time point analyses of ROTEM parameters and platelet count within 24 and 48 hours from the onset of the critical phase. Conventional coagulation tests were performed only at the initial time point.

Results

Twenty of 105 patients developed bleeding after onset of the critical phase. Within the first 24 hours of critical‐phase onset, platelet count, coagulation tests, and ROTEM delta were unable to differentiate patients with bleeding manifestations from those without (P < .05). Area under the curve of thrombin receptor activating peptide‐6 assay of ROTEM platelet (TRAPTEM) discriminated patients with bleeding manifestations from those without, at a cutoff value of <12.5 Ω*min at a sensitivity and specificity of 73.7%, and 60.2%. In patients who developed bleeding, the maximum lysis of extrinsic pathway of ROTEM was significantly lower in patients with severe bleeding compared to those with mild to moderate bleeding. (4.3 ± 3.4% vs 9.4 ± 7.5%; P = .01).

Conclusion

An association with bleeding manifestations and TRAPTEM suggest a potential role for defective platelet aggregation in the pathogenesis of bleeding in the critical phase of dengue.

An 8-gene machine learning model improves clinical prediction of severe dengue progression

BACKGROUND

Each year 3-6 million people develop life-threatening severe dengue (SD). Clinical warning signs for SD manifest late in the disease course and are nonspecific, leading to missed cases and excess hospital burden. Better SD prognostics are urgently needed.

METHODS

We integrated 11 public datasets profiling the blood transcriptome of 365 dengue patients of all ages and from seven countries, encompassing biological, clinical, and technical heterogeneity. We performed an iterative multi-cohort analysis to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between non-severe patients and SD progressors. Using only these DEGs, we trained an XGBoost machine learning model on public data to predict progression to SD. All model parameters were "locked" prior to validation in an independent, prospectively enrolled cohort of 377 dengue patients in Colombia. We measured expression of the DEGs in whole blood samples collected upon presentation, prior to SD progression. We then compared the accuracy of the locked XGBoost model and clinical warning signs in predicting SD.

RESULTS

We identified eight SD-associated DEGs in the public datasets and built an 8-gene XGBoost model that accurately predicted SD progression in the independent validation cohort with 86.4% (95% CI 68.2-100) sensitivity and 79.7% (95% CI 75.5-83.9) specificity. Given the 5.8% proportion of SD cases in this cohort, the 8-gene model had a positive and negative predictive value (PPV and NPV) of 20.9% (95% CI 16.7-25.6) and 99.0% (95% CI 97.7-100.0), respectively. Compared to clinical warning signs at presentation, which had 77.3% (95% CI 58.3-94.1) sensitivity and 39.7% (95% CI 34.7-44.9) specificity, the 8-gene model led to an 80% reduction in the number needed to predict (NNP) from 25.4 to 5.0. Importantly, the 8-gene model accurately predicted subsequent SD in the first three days post-fever onset and up to three days prior to SD progression.

CONCLUSIONS

The 8-gene XGBoost model, trained on heterogeneous public datasets, accurately predicted progression to SD in a large, independent, prospective cohort, including during the early febrile stage when SD prediction remains clinically difficult. The model has potential to be translated to a point-of-care prognostic assay to reduce dengue morbidity and mortality without overwhelming limited healthcare resources.

Plasma leakage in dengue: a systematic review of prospective observational studies

Plasma leakage is a precursor to life-threatening complications of dengue, but this group is poorly defined and not often reported in literature. Patients with Dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) as defined in the 1997 World Health Organization classification are often reported, and they all have plasma leakage, but some patients with plasma leakage do not meet the definition of DHF. The study aims to estimate the frequency of plasma leakage and DHF (as a surrogate of plasma leakage) in dengue and its variations based on virus serotype, geography, patient gender and pre-existing immunity to dengue. PUBMED, Scopus, EMBASE, CINAHL and Web of Science were searched for prospective observational studies reporting on plasma leakage or DHF. Quality of data was assessed using the NIH quality assessment tool for cohort studies. Forty-three studies that recruited 15,794 confirmed dengue patients were eligible. Cumulative frequency of plasma leakage was 36.8% (15 studies, 1642/4462, 95% CI 35.4-38.2%), but surprisingly the estimated cumulative frequency of DHF was higher (45.7%, 32 studies, 4758/10417, 95% CI 44.7-46.6%), indicating that current medical literature over-reports DHF or under-reports plasma leakage. Therefore, a reliable estimate for the proportion of dengue patients developing plasma leakage cannot be derived from existing medical literature even after applying rigorous inclusion criteria to select homogenous studies. Plasma leakage is an important marker of "at-risk" dengue patients and standardizing its definition, diagnosis and reporting should be a priority in research and global policy.

Evaluation of immature platelet fraction as a marker of dengue fever progression

OBJECTIVES

Progression of dengue is often associated with thrombocytopenia resulting from viral-induced bone marrow suppression and immune-mediated peripheral platelet consumption. Immature platelet fraction (IPF), which can be measured using a haematology analyser, is a precursor indicating platelet formation in the bone marrow. This study evaluated the trend of IPF as an early recovery indicator of platelets in dengue patients with thrombocytopenia, and its relationship with severe dengue in conjunction with reticulocyte count.

METHODS

Hospitalized patients with dengue were enrolled and followed-up daily until discharge. Blood investigations included daily full blood counts and IPF measured using a haematology analyser.

RESULTS

In total, 287 patients with confirmed dengue were enrolled in this study, 25 of whom had severe dengue. All patients had a decreasing trend in platelet count in the first week of illness, concomitant with an increasing trend in the percentage of immature platelets to total platelets (IPF%) for more than 3 days prior to platelet recovery. IPF% was significantly increased in patients with severe dengue compared with patients with non-severe dengue on days 3-5 after the onset of fever. Reticulocyte count increased significantly in patients with severe dengue on day 5.

CONCLUSIONS

IPF can be utilized as an early recovery indicator of platelets in patients with dengue and thrombocytopenia.

Knowledge gaps in the epidemiology of severe dengue impede vaccine evaluation

The most severe consequences of dengue virus infection include shock, haemorrhage, and major organ failure; however, the frequency of these manifestations varies, and the relative contribution of pre-existing anti-dengue virus antibodies, virus characteristics, and host factors (including age and comorbidities) are not well understood. Reliable characterisation of the epidemiology of severe dengue first depends on the use of consistent definitions of disease severity. As vaccine trials have shown, severe dengue is a crucial interventional endpoint, yet the infrequency of its occurrence necessitates the inclusion of thousands of study participants to appropriately compare its frequency among participants who have and have not been vaccinated. Hospital admission is frequently used as a proxy for severe dengue; however, lack of specificity and variability in clinical practices limit the reliability of this approach. Although previous infection with a dengue virus is the best characterised risk factor for developing severe dengue, the influence of the timing between dengue virus infections and the sequence of dengue virus infections on disease severity is only beginning to be elucidated. To improve our understanding of the diverse factors that shape the clinical spectrum of disease resulting from dengue virus infection, prospective, community-based and clinic-based immunological, virological, genetic, and clinical studies across a range of ages and geographical regions are needed.

Fatal outcomes of imported dengue fever in adult travelers from non-endemic areas are associated with primary infections

BACKGROUND

The case-fatality rate of dengue in travelers is low. Secondary dengue virus (DENV) infections are considered a risk factor for fatal outcome in endemic populations; however, the impact of secondary infections on mortality in travelers has not been studied systematically. We performed a descriptive analysis of case reports of dengue fatalities in travelers.

METHODS

We searched Medline for clinical case reports, using the free terms and MeSH headings: 'Dengue' OR 'Severe Dengue' AND 'Travel-Related Illness' OR 'travel' AND 'Mortality' OR 'Fatal Outcome'. We analyzed case reports of fatal dengue in returning travelers published from 1995 to 2020, with the objective to detail risk factors for dengue mortality in this population. We verified the authors' classifications of primary or secondary dengue infections; infections were considered as primary by absence of anti-DENV immunoglobulin (Ig)G or by IgM-to-IgG ratios greater than or equal to 1.8 in the first 7 days post symptom onset.

RESULTS

We identified nine detailed reports of dengue with fatal outcome among travelers from non-endemic countries. Eight fatalities were female. The median age was 32 years (range 21-63). Out of nine fatal cases, seven travelers had a primary DENV infection, one had a secondary infection and, in one, these data were not reported. The infecting DENV serotypes were DENV-1 (n = 2), DENV-2 (n = 2) and DENV-3 (n = 3); DENV-1 or 2 (n = 1) and in one case, the serotype could not be determined.

CONCLUSIONS

Dengue-related deaths in travelers are rare. Most dengue cases in travelers are primary infections. Contrary to prevailing conceptions, we found that fatal outcomes of dengue in travelers from non-endemic countries were reported mainly with primary DENV infections. We alert health care providers that primary DENV infections are not always harmless and that in adult travelers from non-endemic countries, primary infections may contribute more to dengue-related mortality than secondary infections.

Combination of inflammatory and vascular markers in the febrile phase of dengue is associated with more severe outcomes

Background

Early identification of severe dengue patients is important regarding patient management and resource allocation. We investigated the association of 10 biomarkers (VCAM-1, SDC-1, Ang-2, IL-8, IP-10, IL-1RA, sCD163, sTREM-1, ferritin, CRP) with the development of severe/moderate dengue (S/MD).

Methods

We performed a nested case-control study from a multi-country study. A total of 281 S/MD and 556 uncomplicated dengue cases were included.

Results

On days 1-3 from symptom onset, higher levels of any biomarker increased the risk of developing S/MD. When assessing together, SDC-1 and IL-1RA were stable, while IP-10 changed the association from positive to negative; others showed weaker associations. The best combinations associated with S/MD comprised IL-1RA, Ang-2, IL-8, ferritin, IP-10, and SDC-1 for children, and SDC-1, IL-8, ferritin, sTREM-1, IL-1RA, IP-10, and sCD163 for adults.

Conclusions

Our findings assist the development of biomarker panels for clinical use and could improve triage and risk prediction in dengue patients.

Funding

This study was supported by the EU's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-281803 IDAMS), the WHO, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Development of a bedside score to predict dengue severity

Background

In 2017, New Caledonia experienced an outbreak of severe dengue causing high hospital burden (4379 cases, 416 hospital admissions, 15 deaths). We decided to build a local operational model predictive of dengue severity, which was needed to ease the healthcare circuit.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed clinical and biological parameters associated with severe dengue in the cohort of patients hospitalized at the Territorial Hospital between January and July 2017 with confirmed dengue, in order to elaborate a comprehensive patient’s score. Patients were compared in univariate and multivariate analyses. Predictive models for severity were built using a descending step-wise method.

Results

Out of 383 included patients, 130 (34%) developed severe dengue and 13 (3.4%) died. Major risk factors identified in univariate analysis were: age, comorbidities, presence of at least one alert sign, platelets count < 30 × 10⁹/L, prothrombin time < 60%, AST and/or ALT > 10 N, and previous dengue infection. Severity was not influenced by the infecting dengue serotype nor by previous Zika infection.

Two models to predict dengue severity were built according to sex. Best models for females and males had respectively a median Area Under the Curve = 0.80 and 0.88, a sensitivity = 84.5 and 84.5%, a specificity = 78.6 and 95.5%, a positive predictive value = 63.3 and 92.9%, a negative predictive value = 92.8 and 91.3%. Models were secondarily validated on 130 patients hospitalized for dengue in 2018.

Conclusion

We built robust and efficient models to calculate a bedside score able to predict dengue severity in our setting. We propose the spreadsheet for dengue severity score calculations to health practitioners facing dengue outbreaks of enhanced severity in order to improve patients’ medical management and hospitalization flow.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06146-z.

Higher Plasma Viremia in the Febrile Phase Is Associated With Adverse Dengue Outcomes Irrespective of Infecting Serotype or Host Immune Status: An Analysis of 5642 Vietnamese Cases

BACKGROUND

One of the generally accepted constructs of dengue pathogenesis is that clinical disease severity is at least partially dependent upon plasma viremia, yet data on plasma viremia in primary versus secondary infections and in relation to clinically relevant endpoints remain limited and contradictory.

METHODS

Using a large database comprising detailed clinical and laboratory characterization of Vietnamese participants enrolled in a series of research studies executed over a 15-year period, we explored relationships between plasma viremia measured by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and 3 clinically relevant endpoints-severe dengue, plasma leakage, and hospitalization-in the dengue-confirmed cases. All 4 dengue serotypes and both primary and secondary infections were well represented. In our logistic regression models we allowed for a nonlinear effect of viremia and for associations between viremia and outcome to differ by age, serotype, host immune status, and illness day at study enrollment.

RESULTS

Among 5642 dengue-confirmed cases we identified 259 (4.6%) severe dengue cases, 701 (12.4%) patients with plasma leakage, and 1441 of 4008 (40.0%) patients recruited in outpatient settings who were subsequently hospitalized. From the early febrile phase onwards, higher viremia increased the risk of developing all 3 endpoints, but effect sizes were modest (ORs ranging from 1.12-1.27 per 1-log increase) compared with the effects of a secondary immune response (ORs, 1.67-7.76). The associations were consistent across age, serotype, and immune status groups, and in the various sensitivity and subgroup analyses we undertook.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher plasma viremia is associated with increased dengue severity, regardless of serotype or immune status.

Severe dengue categories as research endpoints-Results from a prospective observational study in hospitalised dengue patients

Severe dengue was perceived as one clinical disease entity until the WHO 2009 classification stratified it into severe vascular leakage, severe bleeding, and severe organ dysfunction. The objectives of this study were to investigate the potential use of severe dengue categories as endpoints for intervention research. 271 patients with severe dengue among 1734 confirmed dengue patients were followed prospectively in this hospital-based observational study in Latin America and Asia. We compared the distribution of severe dengue categories according to gender and age (below/above 15y), and determined the relative frequency and the overlap of severe dengue categories in the same patients. In a next step, we extended the analysis to candidate moderate severity categories, based on recently suggested definitions which were adapted for our purposes. Severe vascular leakage occurred in 244 (90%), severe bleeding in 39 (14%), and severe organ dysfunction in 28 (10%) of 271 severe dengue patients. A higher frequency of severe leakage was seen in children or adolescents (<15y) compared to adults. More than 80% of the severe leakage cases, and 30-50% of the cases with severe bleeding or severe organ dysfunction, were defined as severe on the basis of that feature alone. In 136 out of 213 patients with severe leakage alone, neither moderate bleeding manifestation nor hepatic involvement was recorded. On the other hand, moderate leakage manifestations were detected in 4 out of 12 cases that were classified as severe based on bleeding alone. A major proportion of severe dengue patients exhibited clinical manifestations of severe vascular leakage only, which may constitute a useful endpoint for intervention research or pathophysiology studies. Severe bleeding and severe organ manifestation were recorded less frequently and exhibited a higher degree of overlap with severe leakage. Severe bleeding without leakage may be associated with individual predisposition or the presence of comorbidities. More detailed assessments are needed to explore this hypothesis. Candidate moderate disease endpoints were investigated and need to be further validated.

C-reactive protein as a potential biomarker for disease progression in dengue: a multi-country observational study

BACKGROUND

Dengue infection can cause a wide spectrum of clinical outcomes. The severe clinical manifestations occur sufficiently late in the disease course, during day 4-6 of illness, to allow a window of opportunity for risk stratification. Markers of inflammation may be useful biomarkers. We investigated the value of C-reactive protein (CRP) measured early on illness days 1-3 to predict dengue disease outcome and the difference in CRP levels between dengue and other febrile illnesses (OFI).

METHOD

We performed a nested case-control study using the clinical data and samples collected from the IDAMS-consortium multi-country study. This was a prospective multi-center observational study that enrolled almost 8000 participants presenting with a dengue-like illness to outpatient facilities in 8 countries across Asia and Latin America. Predefined severity definitions of severe and intermediate dengue were used as the primary outcomes. A total of 281 cases with severe/intermediate dengue were compared to 836 uncomplicated dengue patients as controls (ratio 1:3), and also 394 patients with OFI.

RESULTS

In patients with confirmed dengue, median (interquartile range) of CRP level within the first 3 days was 30.2 mg/L (12.4-61.2 mg/L) (uncomplicated dengue, 28.6 (10.5-58.9); severe or intermediate dengue, 34.0 (17.4-71.8)). Higher CRP levels in the first 3 days of illness were associated with a higher risk of severe or intermediate outcome (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.07-1.29), especially in children. Higher CRP levels, exceeding 30 mg/L, also associated with hospitalization (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.14-1.64) and longer fever clearance time (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.76-0.93), especially in adults. CRP levels in patients with dengue were higher than patients with potential viral infection but lower than patients with potential bacterial infection, resulting in a quadratic association between dengue diagnosis and CRP, with levels of approximately 30 mg/L associated with the highest risk of having dengue. CRP had a positive correlation with total white cell count and neutrophils and negative correlation with lymphocytes, but did not correlate with liver transaminases, albumin, or platelet nadir.

CONCLUSIONS

In summary, CRP measured in the first 3 days of illness could be a useful biomarker for early dengue risk prediction and may assist differentiating dengue from other febrile illnesses.

Severe dengue and liver involvement: an overview and review of the literature

Introduction: Two billion population are at risk of dengue fever and by 2080, over six billion population will be at risk. Hepatitis is common in dengue and the liver is invariably involved in severe cases. We conducted a literature review using the PubMed database on articles covering a broad range of issues related to dengue and hepatitis.Areas covered: This article overviews available literature on changes in the definition of severe dengue, pathogenesis of liver involvement in dengue, clinical manifestations, and predictors of mortality in severe dengue with liver involvement, impact of viral hepatitis co-infections and hepatotoxic drugs, and hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis.Expert commentary: Hepatitis is commonly seen in dengue however the degree of elevation of transaminases did not correlate well with severity of illness in observational studies, except in the elderly. The underlying pathogenesis of liver injury is still being elucidated and further studies are required to fully understand the cellular pathways. Acute or chronic viral hepatitis does not appear to affect dengue outcomes. Commonly used medications such as paracetamol and statins may influence dengue outcomes.

Primary Dengue Infection in Patients Requiring Hospitalization During an Outbreak in a Low Incidence Mexican Region

Background: Dengue manifestations can range from subclinical to fatal. The study of factors that influence dengue's clinical severity can provide information to potentially limit or predict severe cases. Secondary infection (SI) with a different dengue serotype has been recognized as an important determinant of severity. However, severe dengue (SD) manifestations, including shock, can happen during primary infection (PI) too and the mechanisms involved are less understood. To characterize the severe manifestations associated to PI, we distinguished between primary and secondary dengue cases in hospitalized patients from a region of low and recent dengue incidence in central Mexico. This region can serve as a model for dengue's behavior as it spreads to new areas worldwide. Methods: Dengue-specific immunoglobulin M (IgM) and IgG concentrations were measured in the serum of 78 hospitalized patients with dengue hemorrhagic fever, and their ratios were used to discriminate between PI and SI, as recommended by World Health Organization. Clinical and laboratory manifestations were compared between PI and SI. Results and Conclusions: PI was detected in 23% of hospitalized dengue cases, a proportion similar to that reported in high-incidence regions in Mexico. PI was more frequent in 16- to 40-year-olds, and was absent in patients older than 60 years. Only dengue with warning signs and SD were present in the studied population of hospitalized patients, and case frequency decreased with clinical severity both in PI and SI groups. No significant differences in demographics, laboratory tests, or symptoms were found between PI and SI, which illustrates that cases requiring hospitalization during outbreaks can be severe, even if they are PI. This information can help plan for sanitary contingencies in places where dengue is recently emergent and numerous PI cases are expected. The mechanisms involved in PI clinical severity need to be studied further.

Pre-vaccination screening strategies for the use of the CYD-TDV dengue vaccine: A meeting report

The first licensed dengue vaccine, CYD-TDV (Dengvaxia) is efficacious in seropositive individuals, but increases the risk for severe dengue in seronegative persons about two years after administration of the first dose. For countries considering the introduction of Dengvaxia, WHO recommends a pre-vaccination screening strategy whereby only persons with evidence of a past dengue infection would be vaccinated. Policy-makers need to consider the risk-benefit of vaccination strategies based on such screening tests, the optimal age to introduce the vaccine, communication and implementation strategies. To address these questions, the Global Dengue and Aedes-transmitted diseases Consortium (GDAC) organized a 3-day workshop in January 2019 with country representatives from Asia and Latin America. The meeting discussions highlighted many challenges in introducing Dengvaxia, in terms of screening test characteristics, costs of such tests combined with a 3-dose schedule, logistics, achieving high coverage rates, vaccine confidence and communication; more challenges than for any other vaccine introduction programme. A screening test would require a high specificity to minimize individual risk, and at the same time high sensitivity to maximize individual and population benefit. The underlying seroprevalence dependent positive predictive value is the best indicator for an acceptable safety profile of a pre-vaccination screening strategy. The working groups discussed many possible implementation strategies. Addressing the bottlenecks in school-based vaccine introduction for Dengvaxia will also benefit other vaccines such as HPV and booster doses for tetanus and pertussis. Levels of public trust are highly variable and context specific, and understanding of population perceptions and concerns is essential to tailor interventions, monitor and mitigate risks.

Serologic Tools and Strategies to Support Intervention Trials to Combat Zika Virus Infection and Disease

Zika virus is an emerging mosquito-borne flavivirus that recently caused a large epidemic in Latin America characterized by novel disease phenotypes, including Guillain-Barré syndrome, sexual transmission, and congenital anomalies, such as microcephaly. This epidemic, which was declared an international public health emergency by the World Health Organization, has highlighted shortcomings in our current understanding of, and preparation for, emerging infectious diseases in general, as well as challenges that are specific to Zika virus infection. Vaccine development for Zika virus has been a high priority of the public health response, and several candidates have shown promise in pre-clinical and early phase clinical trials. The optimal selection and implementation of imperfect serologic assays are among the crucial issues that must be addressed in order to advance Zika vaccine development. Here, I review key considerations for how best to incorporate into Zika vaccine trials the existing serologic tools, as well as those on the horizon. Beyond that, this discussion is relevant to other intervention strategies to combat Zika and likely other emerging infectious diseases.

Development of standard clinical endpoints for use in dengue interventional trials: introduction and methodology

Background

As increasing numbers of dengue vaccines and therapeutics are in clinical development, standardized consensus clinical endpoint definitions are urgently needed to assess the efficacy of different interventions with respect to disease severity. We aimed to convene dengue experts representing various sectors and dengue endemic areas to review the literature and propose clinical endpoint definitions for moderate and severe disease based on the framework provided by the WHO 2009 classification.

Methods

The endpoints were first proposed and discussed in a structured expert consultation. After that, the Delphi method was carried out to assess the usefulness, validity and feasibility of the standardized clinical disease endpoints for interventional dengue research.

Results

Most respondents (> 80%) agreed there is a need for both standardized clinical endpoints and operationalization of severe endpoints. Most respondents (67%) felt there is utility for moderate severity endpoints, but cited challenges in their development. Hospitalization as a moderate endpoint of disease severity or measure of public health impact was deemed to be useful by only 47% of respondents, but 89% felt it could bring about supplemental information if carefully contextualized according to data collection setting. Over half of the respondents favored alignment of the standard endpoints with the WHO guidelines (58%), but cautioned that the endpoints could have ramifications for public health practice. In terms of data granularity of the endpoints, there was a slight preference for a categorical vs numeric system (e.g. 1–10) (47% vs 34%), and 74% of respondents suggested validating the endpoints using large prospective data sets.

Conclusion

The structured consensus-building process was successful taking into account the history of the debate around potential endpoints for severe dengue. There is clear support for the development of standardized endpoints for interventional clinical research and the need for subsequent validation with prospective data sets. Challenges include the complexity of developing moderate disease research endpoints for dengue.