Minimum requirements and optimal testing strategies of a diagnostic test for leprosy as a tool towards zero transmission: A modeling study

Potential Impact of a Diagnostic Test for Detecting Prepatent Guinea Worm Infections in Dogs

Chad has seen a considerable reduction in cases of Guinea worm disease (or dracunculiasis) in domestic dogs in recent years. Tethering of dogs and application of Abate® larvicide to water sources appear to have contributed to this progress, but with 767 reported dog cases in 2021, accelerating elimination of the disease in Chad may require additional tools. We investigate the potential benefits of a hypothetical diagnostic test that could be capable of detecting prepatent infections in dogs. We adapt an agent-based simulation model for forecasting the impact of interventions on guinea worm disease in dogs to examine the interaction of multiple test factors including test accuracy, when the test can detect infection, dog selection, and dog-owner compliance with tethering recommendations. We find that a diagnostic test could be successful if used in conjunction with existing interventions, and elimination can be achieved within 2 years with 80% or higher test sensitivity, 90% or higher specificity, systematic testing of each dog twice per year, and more than 90% long-term tethering compliance when a dog tests positive or a worm is emerging. Because of the long incubation period of Guinea worm disease (10-14 months) and the fact that no treatment exists, the benefits of the test rely on the testing rollout and response of dog owners. If the test could estimate the timing of worm emergence, long-term tethering could be eliminated and infected dogs could be tethered only when the worms are expected, minimizing the related resources (human and financial) to support the intervention.

Modelling morbidity for neglected tropical diseases: the long and winding road from cumulative exposure to long-term pathology

Reducing the morbidities caused by neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) is a central aim of ongoing disease control programmes. The broad spectrum of pathogens under the umbrella of NTDs lead to a range of negative health outcomes, from malnutrition and anaemia to organ failure, blindness and carcinogenesis. For some NTDs, the most severe clinical manifestations develop over many years of chronic or repeated infection. For these diseases, the association between infection and risk of long-term pathology is generally complex, and the impact of multiple interacting factors, such as age, co-morbidities and host immune response, is often poorly quantified. Mathematical modelling has been used for many years to gain insights into the complex processes underlying the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases; however, long-term morbidities associated with chronic or cumulative exposure are generally not incorporated into dynamic models for NTDs. Here we consider the complexities and challenges for determining the relationship between cumulative pathogen exposure and morbidity at the individual and population levels, drawing on case studies for trachoma, schistosomiasis and foodborne trematodiasis. We explore potential frameworks for explicitly incorporating long-term morbidity into NTD transmission models, and consider the insights such frameworks may bring in terms of policy-relevant projections for the elimination era. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Detection of anti-M. leprae antibodies in healthy children in China: A systematic review of Chinese literature

Leprosy is an infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae (M. leprae) that mainly involves the skin and peripheral nerves, causing lifelong deformities and social stigma. As evident from the practically stable number of new cases reported worldwide during the past decade, transmission is still ongoing. On route to leprosy elimination, an appropriate tool is needed to monitor M. leprae transmission. M. leprae-specific antibodies indicate infection with M. leprae, but do not differentiate between present and past infection. Nevertheless, detection of M. leprae infection in young children per definition indicates recent infection. Hence, seroprevalence in young children can be used to monitor recent M. leprae transmission. Despite having eliminated leprosy in most parts of the country, studies on transmission conducted in China are not sufficiently reported in the English literature. Therefore, we performed a systematic review of Chinese literature describing serological studies in healthy children in (former) leprosy endemic areas in China, available in the Chinese databases: China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), China Science and Technology Journal Database (VIP), and Wanfang Database. From the 710 articles identified in these three Chinese databases, only four full-text articles fulfilled all inclusion criteria regarding sufficiently detailed descriptions of anti-M. leprae antibodies in healthy children. Two additional papers were identified through snowballing, resulting in a total of six articles considered for this review reporting quantitative serological data from three Chinese provinces between 1987 and 2003. All studies used ELISAs to quantify antibody levels. Seroprevalence in healthy children ranged from 7.93% (Yunnan) to 32.35% (Jiangsu). If the same method was used (in Jiangsu), direct comparison of studies at different time points indicated that decrease in disease prevalence (0.28 to 0.16 per 100,000) or new case detection rate (2.6 to 1.0 per 100,000) from 1987-1991 corresponded to decrease in anti-M. leprae antibody seroprevalence (30.86% to 22.61%) in healthy children. Thus, these findings are consistent with the previous finding that anti-M. leprae antibody seroprevalence in young children represents a surrogate indicator to monitor transmission.

Serum IL-6 level and nutrition status as potential predictors of clinical leprosy development among household contacts in the endemic areas

Background

Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease that can lead to severe life-long disabilities. Close contacts of leprosy patients have a higher risk of acquiring the disease. Nevertheless, there is a lack of reliable markers to predict Mycobacterium leprae infection. We aim to identify new potential markers for developing clinical leprosy among contacts.

Methods

Serum levels of IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, hemoglobin, ferritin and transferrin saturation were measured in 67 multibacillary leprosy (MB) patients, 65 household contacts (HC) of MB patients, and 127 endemic controls (EC). By means of multivariate logistic regression and ROC analyses, we analyze baseline variables and laboratory parameters that showed significant differences between MB with HC and EC groups and obtained the respective areas under the curve (AUC). Optimal cut-off value of the associated cytokines was also determined.

Results

Elevated IL-6 level was observed in MB compared to HC and EC (p=0.022 and 0.0041, respectively). Anemia and iron deficiency were also higher in MB group compared to HC or EC (p<0.001). Likewise, we observed an increased risk of having MB leprosy in underweight HC [OR 2.599 (0.991; 6.820)] and underweight EC [2.176 (1.010; 4.692)]. Further analysis with ROC showed that high serum IL-6 level, underweight, anemia, and iron deficiency can discriminate leprosy from their household contacts [AUC 0.843 (95% CI 0.771-0.914); p=0.000; optimal cut-off value of IL-6 = 9.14 pg/ml].

Conclusions

Our results suggest that serum IL-6 and nutrition status could serve as potential prognostic markers for the development of clinical leprosy in infected individuals.

Measuring endemicity and burden of leprosy across countries and regions: A systematic review and Delphi survey

BACKGROUND

Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae, the annual new case detection in 2019 was 202,189 globally. Measuring endemicity levels and burden in leprosy lacks a uniform approach. As a result, the assessment of leprosy endemicity or burden are not comparable over time and across countries and regions. This can make program planning and evaluation difficult. This study aims to identify relevant metrics and methods for measuring and classifying leprosy endemicity and burden at (sub)national level.

METHODS

We used a mixed-method approach combining findings from a systematic literature review and a Delphi survey. The literature search was conducted in seven databases, searching for endemicity, burden and leprosy. We reviewed the available evidence on the usage of indicators, classification levels, and scoring methods to measure and classify endemicity and burden. A two round Delphi survey was conducted to ask experts to rank and weigh indicators, classification levels, and scoring methods.

RESULTS

The literature review showed variation of indicators, levels, and cut-off values to measure leprosy endemicity and/or burden. The most used indicators for endemicity include new case detection rate (NCDR), new cases among children and new cases with grade 2 disability. For burden these include NCDR, MB cases, and prevalence. The classification levels 'high' and 'low' were most important. It was considered most relevant to use separate scoring methods for endemicity and burden. The scores would be derived by use of multiple indicators.

CONCLUSION

There is great variation in the existing method for measuring endemicity and burden across countries and regions. Our findings contribute to establishing a standardized uniform approach to measure and classify leprosy endemicity and burden at (sub)national level, which would allow effective communication and planning of intervention strategies.

The long-term impact of the Leprosy Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (LPEP) program on leprosy incidence: A modelling study

Background

The Leprosy Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (LPEP) program explored the feasibility and impact of contact tracing and the provision of single dose rifampicin (SDR) to eligible contacts of newly diagnosed leprosy patients in Brazil, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Tanzania. As the impact of the programme is difficult to establish in the short term, we apply mathematical modelling to predict its long-term impact on the leprosy incidence.

Methodology

The individual-based model SIMCOLEP was calibrated and validated to the historic leprosy incidence data in the study areas. For each area, we assessed two scenarios: 1) continuation of existing routine activities as in 2014; and 2) routine activities combined with LPEP starting in 2015. The number of contacts per index patient screened varied from 1 to 36 between areas. Projections were made until 2040.

Principal findings

In all areas, the LPEP program increased the number of detected cases in the first year(s) of the programme as compared to the routine programme, followed by a faster reduction afterwards with increasing benefit over time. LPEP could accelerate the reduction of the leprosy incidence by up to six years as compared to the routine programme. The impact of LPEP varied by area due to differences in the number of contacts per index patient included and differences in leprosy epidemiology and routine control programme.

Conclusions

The LPEP program contributes significantly to the reduction of the leprosy incidence and could potentially accelerate the interruption of transmission. It would be advisable to include contact tracing/screening and SDR in routine leprosy programmes.

The Leprosy Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (LPEP) program explored the feasibility and impact of contact tracing and the provision of SDR to eligible contacts of newly diagnosed leprosy patients in states or districts of Brazil, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Tanzania. This study investigated the long-term impact of the LPEP program on the leprosy new case detection rate (NCDR). Our results show that LPEP could reduce the NCDR beyond the impact of the routine leprosy control programme and that many new cases could be prevented. The benefit of LPEP increases gradually over time. LPEP could accelerate the time of reaching predicted NCDR levels of 2040 under routine program by up to six years. Furthermore, we highlighted how the impact varies between countries due to differences in the number of contacts per index patient screened and differences in leprosy epidemiology and national control programme. Generally, including both household contacts and neighbours (> 20 contacts per index patient) would yield the highest impact.

Prototype multi-biomarker test for point-of-care leprosy diagnostics

To end the decade-long, obstinately stagnant number of new leprosy cases, there is an urgent need for field-applicable diagnostic tools that detect infection with Mycobacterium leprae, leprosy's etiologic agent. Since immunity against M. leprae is characterized by humoral and cellular markers, we developed a lateral flow test measuring multiple host proteins based on six previously identified biomarkers for various leprosy phenotypes. This multi-biomarker test (MBT) demonstrated feasibility of quantitative detection of six host serum proteins simultaneously, jointly allowing discrimination of patients with multibacillary and paucibacillary leprosy from control individuals in high and low leprosy endemic areas. Pilot testing of fingerstick blood showed similar MBT performance in point-of-care (POC) settings as observed for plasma and serum. Thus, this newly developed prototype MBT measures six biomarkers covering immunity against M. leprae across the leprosy spectrum. The MBT thereby provides the basis for immunodiagnostic POC tests for leprosy with potential for other (infectious) diseases as well.

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Prototype MBT that quantitatively detects six host-derived biomarkers is developed

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The immunopathological spectrum of leprosy is ideally suited to evaluate the MBT

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MBT discriminated patients with leprosy from controls in a high and non-endemic area

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Application of the MBT using low invasive fingerstick blood is technically feasible

Functional biomarker signatures of circulating T-cells and its association with distinct clinical status of leprosy patients and their respective household contacts

BACKGROUND

Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease classified into two subgroups for therapeutic purposes: paucibacillary (PB) and multibacillary (MB), closely related to the host immune responses. In this context it is noteworthy looking for immunological biomarkers applicable as complementary diagnostic tools as well as a laboratorial strategy to follow-up leprosy household contacts.

METHODS

The cross-sectional study enrolled 49 participants, including 19 patients and 30 healthy controls. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) were isolated and incubated in the presence of Mycobacterium leprae bacilli. The cells were prepared for surface (CD4+ and CD8+) and intracytoplasmic cytokine staining (IFN-γ, IL-4 and IL-10). Multiple comparisons amongst groups were carried out by ANOVA, Kruskal-Wallis, Student T or Mann-Whitney test. Comparative analysis of categorical variables was performed by Chi-square. Functional biomarker signature analysis was conducted using the global median values for each biomarker index as the cut-off edge to identify the proportion of subjects with high biomarker levels.

RESULTS

The cytokine signature analysis demonstrated that leprosy patients presented a polyfunctional profile of T-cells subsets, with increased frequency of IFN-γ+ T-cell subsets along with IL-10+ and IL-4+ from CD4+ T-cells, as compared to health Controls (Venn diagram report). Moreover, statistical analysis was carried out using parametric or non-parametric variance analysis followed by pairwise multiple comparisons, according to the data normality distribution. L(PB) displayed a polyfunctional profile characterized by enhanced percentage of IFN-γ+, IL-10+ and IL-4+ produced by most T-cell subsets, as compared to L(MB) that presented a more restricted cytokine functional profile mediated by IL-10+ and IL-4+ T-cells with minor contribution of IFN-γ produced by CD4+ T-cells. Noteworthy was that HHC(MB) exhibited enhanced frequency of IFN-γ+ T-cells, contrasting with HHC(PB) that presented a cytokine profile limited to IL-10 and IL-4.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data demonstrated that L(PB) displayed enhanced percentage of IFN-γ+, IL-10+ and IL-4+ as compared to L(MB) that presented functional profile mediated by IL-10+ and IL-4+ T-cells and HHC(MB) exhibited enhanced frequency of IFN-γ+ T-cells, contrasting with HHC(PB). Together, our findings provide additional immunological features associated with leprosy and household contacts. These data provide evidence that biomarkers of immune response can be useful complementary diagnostic/prognostic tools as well as insights that household contacts should be monitored to access putative subclinical infection.

A comprehensive research agenda for zero leprosy

BACKGROUND

Leprosy control achieved dramatic success in the 1980s-1990s with the implementation of short course multidrug therapy, which reduced the global prevalence of leprosy to less than 1 in 10 000 population. However, a period of relative stagnation in leprosy control followed this achievement, and only limited further declines in the global number of new cases reported have been achieved over the past decade.

MAIN TEXT

In 2016, major stakeholders called for the development of an innovative and comprehensive leprosy strategy aimed at reducing the incidence of leprosy, lowering the burden of disability and discrimination, and interrupting transmission. This led to the establishment of the Global Partnership for Zero Leprosy (GPZL) in 2018, with partners aligned around a shared Action Framework committed to achieving the WHO targets by 2030 through national leprosy program capacity-building, resource mobilisation and an enabling research agenda. GPZL convened over 140 experts from more than 20 countries to develop a research agenda to achieve zero leprosy. The result is a detailed research agenda focusing on diagnostics, mapping, digital technology and innovation, disability, epidemiological modelling and investment case, implementation research, stigma, post exposure prophylaxis and transmission, and vaccines. This research agenda is aligned with the research priorities identified by other stakeholders.

CONCLUSIONS

Developing and achieving consensus on the research agenda for zero leprosy is a significant step forward for the leprosy community. In a next step, research programmes must be developed, with individual components of the research agenda requiring distinct expertise, varying in resource needs, and operating over different timescales. Moving toward zero leprosy now requires partner alignment and new investments at all stages of the research process, from discovery to implementation.

Quantitative PCR for leprosy diagnosis and monitoring in household contacts: A follow-up study, 2011-2018

Household contacts (HHC) of leprosy patients exhibit high-risk of developing leprosy and contact tracing is helpful for early diagnosis. From 2011 to 2018,2,437 HHC were examined in a clinic in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and 16S qPCR was used for diagnosis and monitoring of contacts. Fifty-four HHCs were clinically diagnosed with leprosy at intake. Another 25 exhibited leprosy-like skin lesions at intake, 8 of which were confirmed as having leprosy (50% of which were qPCR positive) and 17 of which were diagnosed with other skin diseases (6% qPCR positive). In skin biopsies, qPCR presented a sensitivity of 0.50 and specificity of 0.94. Furthermore, 955 healthy HHCs were followed-up for at least 3 years and skin scrapings were collected from earlobes for qPCR detection. Positive qPCR indicated a non-significant relative risk of 2.52 of developing the disease. During follow-up, those who progressed towards leprosy exhibited 20% qPCR positivity, compared to 9% of those who remained healthy. Disease-free survival rates indicated that age had a significant impact on disease progression, where patients over 60 had a greater chance of developing leprosy [HR = 32.4 (3.6-290.3)]. Contact tracing combined with qPCR may assist in early diagnosis and age is a risk factor for leprosy progression.

Detection of Mycobacterium leprae DNA in soil: multiple needles in the haystack

Leprosy is an infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae affecting the skin and nerves. Despite decades of availability of adequate treatment, transmission is unabated and transmission routes are not completely understood. Despite the general assumption that untreated M. leprae infected humans represent the major source of transmission, scarce reports indicate that environmental sources could also play a role as a reservoir. We investigated whether M. leprae DNA is present in soil of regions where leprosy is endemic or areas with possible animal reservoirs (armadillos and red squirrels). Soil samples (n = 73) were collected in Bangladesh, Suriname and the British Isles. Presence of M. leprae DNA was determined by RLEP PCR and genotypes were further identified by Sanger sequencing. M. leprae DNA was identified in 16.0% of soil from houses of leprosy patients (Bangladesh), in 10.7% from armadillos’ holes (Suriname) and in 5% from the habitat of lepromatous red squirrels (British Isles). Genotype 1 was found in Bangladesh whilst in Suriname the genotype was 1 or 2. M. leprae DNA can be detected in soil near human and animal sources, suggesting that environmental sources represent (temporary) reservoirs for M. leprae.

Fingerstick test quantifying humoral and cellular biomarkers indicative for M. leprae infection

OBJECTIVES

New user-friendly diagnostic tests for detection of individuals infected by Mycobacterium leprae (M. leprae), the causative pathogen of leprosy, can help guide therapeutic and prophylactic treatment, thus positively contributing to clinical outcome and reduction of transmission. To facilitate point-of-care testing without the presence of phlebotomists, the use of fingerstick blood (FSB) rather than whole blood-derived serum is preferred. This study is a first proof-of-principle validating that previously described rapid serum tests detecting antibodies and cytokines can also be used with FSB.

METHODS

Quantitative detection of previously identified biomarkers for leprosy and M. leprae infection, anti-M. leprae PGL-I IgM antibodies (αPGL-I), IP-10 and CRP, was performed with lateral flow (LF) strips utilizing luminescent up-converting reporter particles (UCP) and a portable reader generating unbiased read-outs. Precise amounts of FSB samples were collected using disposable heparinized capillaries. Biomarker levels in paired FSB and serum samples were determined using UCP-LF test strips for leprosy patients and controls in Bangladesh, Brazil, South-Africa and the Netherlands.

RESULTS

Correlations between serum and FSB from the same individuals for αPGL-I, CRP and IP-10 were highly significant (p < .0001) even after FSB samples had been frozen. The αPGL-I FSB test was able to correctly identify all multibacillary leprosy patients presenting a good quantitative correlation with the bacterial index.

CONCLUSIONS

Reader-assisted, quantitative UCP-LF tests for the detection of humoral and cellular biomarkers for M. leprae infection, are compatible with FSB. This allows near-patient testing for M. leprae infection and immunomonitoring of treatment without highly trained staff. On site availability of test-result concedes immediate initiation of appropriate counselling and treatment. Alternatively, the UCP-LF format allows frozen storage of FSB samples compatible with deferred testing in central laboratories.