Predicting the spatio-temporal spread of West Nile virus in Europe

The historical ecological background of West Nile virus in Portugal indicates One Health opportunities

West Nile (WNV) is a zoonotic arbovirus with an expanding geographical range and epidemic activity in Europe. Not having yet experienced a human-associated epidemic, Portugal remains an outlier in the Mediterranean basin. In this study, we apply ecological niche modelling informed by WNV historical evidence and a multitude of environmental variables from across Portugal. We identify that ecological backgrounds compatible with WNV historical circulation are mostly restricted to the south, characterized by a warmer and drier climate, high avian diversity, specific avian species and land types. We estimate WNV ecological suitability across the country, identifying overlaps with the distributions of the three relevant hosts (humans, birds, equines) for public and animal health. From this, we propose a category-based spatial framework providing first of a kind valuable insights for WNV surveillance in Portugal under the One Health nexus. We forecast that near future climate trends alone will contribute to pushing adequate WNV ecological suitability northwards, towards regions with higher human density. This unique perspective on the past, present and future ecology of WNV addresses existing national knowledge gaps, enhances our understanding of the evolving emergence of WNV, and offers opportunities to prepare and respond to the first human-associated epidemic in Portugal.

Climate change and disorders of the nervous system

Anthropogenic climate change is affecting people's health, including those with neurological and psychiatric diseases. Currently, making inferences about the effect of climate change on neurological and psychiatric diseases is challenging because of an overall sparsity of data, differing study methods, paucity of detail regarding disease subtypes, little consideration of the effect of individual and population genetics, and widely differing geographical locations with the potential for regional influences. However, evidence suggests that the incidence, prevalence, and severity of many nervous system conditions (eg, stroke, neurological infections, and some mental health disorders) can be affected by climate change. The data show broad and complex adverse effects, especially of temperature extremes to which people are unaccustomed and wide diurnal temperature fluctuations. Protective measures might be possible through local forecasting. Few studies project the future effects of climate change on brain health, hindering policy developments. Robust studies on the threats from changing climate for people who have, or are at risk of developing, disorders of the nervous system are urgently needed.

West Nile virus spread in Europe: Phylogeographic pattern analysis and key drivers

BACKGROUND

West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks in birds, humans, and livestock have occurred in multiple areas in Europe and have had a significant impact on animal and human health. The patterns of emergence and spread of WNV in Europe are very different from those in the US and understanding these are important for guiding preparedness activities.

METHODS

We mapped the evolution and spread history of WNV in Europe by incorporating viral genome sequences and epidemiological data into phylodynamic models. Spatially explicit phylogeographic models were developed to explore the possible contribution of different drivers to viral dispersal direction and velocity. A "skygrid-GLM" approach was used to identify how changes in environments would predict viral genetic diversity variations over time.

FINDINGS

Among the six lineages found in Europe, WNV-2a (a sub-lineage of WNV-2) has been predominant (accounting for 73% of all sequences obtained in Europe that have been shared in the public domain) and has spread to at least 14 countries. In the past two decades, WNV-2a has evolved into two major co-circulating clusters, both originating from Central Europe, but with distinct dynamic history and transmission patterns. WNV-2a spreads at a high dispersal velocity (88km/yr-215 km/yr) which is correlated to bird movements. Notably, amongst multiple drivers that could affect the spread of WNV, factors related to land use were found to strongly influence the spread of WNV. Specifically, the intensity of agricultural activities (defined by factors related to crops and livestock production, such as coverage of cropland, pasture, cultivated and managed vegetation, livestock density) were positively associated with both spread direction and velocity. In addition, WNV spread direction was associated with high coverage of wetlands and migratory bird flyways.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that-in addition to ecological conditions favouring bird- and mosquito- presence-agricultural land use may be a significant driver of WNV emergence and spread. Our study also identified significant gaps in data and the need to strengthen virological surveillance in countries of Central Europe from where WNV outbreaks are likely seeded. Enhanced monitoring for early detection of further dispersal could be targeted to areas with high agricultural activities and habitats of migratory birds.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of West Nile virus between Africa and Europe

It is unclear whether West Nile virus (WNV) circulates between Africa and Europe, despite numerous studies supporting an African origin and high transmission in Europe. We integrated genomic data with geographic observations and phylogenetic and phylogeographic inferences to uncover the spatial and temporal viral dynamics of WNV between these two continents. We focused our analysis towards WNV lineages 1 (L1) and 2 (L2), the most spatially widespread and pathogenic WNV lineages. Our study shows a Northern-Western African origin of L1, with back-and-forth exchanges between West Africa and Southern-Western Europe; and a Southern African origin of L2, with one main introduction from South Africa to Europe, and no back introductions observed. We also noticed a potential overlap between L1 and L2 Eastern and Western phylogeography and two Afro-Palearctic bird migratory flyways. Future studies linking avian and mosquito species susceptibility, migratory connectivity patterns, and phylogeographic inference are suggested to elucidate the dynamics of emerging viruses.

West Nile virus in the Iberian Peninsula: using equine cases to identify high-risk areas for humans

BackgroundWest Nile virus (WNV) is a flavivirus with an enzootic cycle between birds and mosquitoes; humans and horses are incidental dead-end hosts. In 2020, the largest outbreak of West Nile virus infection in the Iberian Peninsula occurred, with 141 clusters in horses and 77 human cases.AimWe analysed which drivers influence spillover from the cycle to humans and equines and identified areas at risk for WNV transmission.MethodsBased on data on WNV cases in horses and humans in 2020 in Portugal and Spain, we developed logistic regression models using environmental and anthropic variables to highlight risk areas. Models were adapted to a high-resolution risk map.ResultsCases of WNV in horses could be used as indicators of viral activity and thus predict cases in humans. The risk map of horses was able to define high-risk areas for previous cases in humans and equines in Portugal and Spain, as well as predict human and horse cases in the transmission seasons of 2021 and 2022. We found that the spatial patterns of the favourable areas for outbreaks correspond to the main hydrographic basins of the Iberian Peninsula, jointly affecting Portugal and Spain.ConclusionA risk map highlighting the risk areas for potential future cases could be cost-effective as a means of promoting preventive measures to decrease incidence of WNV infection in Europe, based on a One Health surveillance approach.

The utility of a Bayesian predictive model to forecast neuroinvasive West Nile virus disease in the United States of America, 2022

Arboviruses (arthropod-borne-viruses) are an emerging global health threat that are rapidly spreading as climate change, international business transport, and landscape fragmentation impact local ecologies. Since its initial detection in 1999, West Nile virus has shifted from being a novel to an established arbovirus in the United States of America. Subsequently, more than 25,000 cases of West Nile neuro-invasive disease have been diagnosed, cementing West Nile virus as an arbovirus of public health importance. Given its novelty in the United States of America, high-risk ecologies are largely underdefined making targeted population-level public health interventions challenging. Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ArboNET neuroinvasive West Nile virus data from 2000-2021, this study aimed to predict neuroinvasive West Nile virus human cases at the county level for the contiguous USA using a spatio-temporal Bayesian negative binomial regression model. The model includes environmental, climatic, and demographic factors, as well as the distribution of host species. An integrated nested Laplace approximation approach was used to fit our model. To assess model prediction accuracy, annual counts were withheld, forecasted, and compared to observed values. The validated models were then fit to the entire dataset for 2022 predictions. This proof-of-concept mathematical, geospatial modelling approach has proven utility for national health agencies seeking to allocate funding and other resources for local vector control agencies tackling West Nile virus and other notifiable arboviral agents.

Comparison of West Nile Virus Disease in Humans and Horses: Exploiting Similarities for Enhancing Syndromic Surveillance

West Nile virus (WNV) neuroinvasive disease threatens the health and well-being of horses and humans worldwide. Disease in horses and humans is remarkably similar. The occurrence of WNV disease in these mammalian hosts has geographic overlap with shared macroscale and microscale drivers of risk. Importantly, intrahost virus dynamics, the evolution of the antibody response, and clinicopathology are similar. The goal of this review is to provide a comparison of WNV infection in humans and horses and to identify similarities that can be exploited to enhance surveillance methods for the early detection of WNV neuroinvasive disease.

Evaluating the Sublethal Effects of Origanum vulgare Essential Oil and Carvacrol on the Biological Characteristics of Culex pipiens biotype molestus (Diptera: Culicidae)

Culex pipiens is a mosquito species complex spread worldwide that poses a serious threat to human health as the primary vector of West Nile virus. Its control is mainly based on larvicidal applications with synthetic insecticides on mosquito breeding sites. However, the excessive use of synthetic larvicides may provoke mosquito resistance issues and negative side effects to the aquatic environment and human health. Plant-derived essential oils, including those from the Lamiaceae family, can be eco-friendly alternative larvicidal agents causing acute larval toxicity and/or growth inhibitory effects on the developmental stages of mosquitoes through different modes of action. In the current laboratory study, we evaluated the sublethal effects of carvacrol-rich oregano essential oil and pure carvacrol on Cx. pipiens biotype molestus, the autogenous member of the Cx. pipiens species complex, after the exposure of 3rd-4th instar larvae to LC₅₀ concentrations. The short-term (24 h) larvicidal treatment with the sublethal concentrations of both tested materials exhibited an acute lethal effect on the exposed larvae as well as significant delayed mortality for surviving larvae and pupae. Larvicidal treatment with carvacrol reduced the longevity of the emerged males. In addition, the morphological abnormalities that were observed at the larval and pupal stage along with failed adult emergence indicate the potential growth inhibitory properties of the tested bioinsecticides. Our findings suggest that carvacrol and carvacrol-rich oregano oil are effective plant-based larvicides at doses lower than the acute lethal ones, thus promoting an environmentally friendly and more affordable perspective for their use against the WNV vector Cx. pipiens biotype molestus.

Applications and advances in acoustic monitoring for infectious disease epidemiology

Emerging infectious diseases continue to pose a significant burden on global public health, and there is a critical need to better understand transmission dynamics arising at the interface of human activity and wildlife habitats. Passive acoustic monitoring (PAM), more typically applied to questions of biodiversity and conservation, provides an opportunity to collect and analyse audio data in relative real time and at low cost. Acoustic methods are increasingly accessible, with the expansion of cloud-based computing, low-cost hardware, and machine learning approaches. Paired with purposeful experimental design, acoustic data can complement existing surveillance methods and provide a novel toolkit to investigate the key biological parameters and ecological interactions that underpin infectious disease epidemiology.

Investigating the impact of environmental factors on West Nile virus human case prediction in Ontario, Canada

West Nile virus is the most common mosquito borne disease in North America and the leading cause of viral encephalitis. West Nile virus is primarily transmitted between birds and mosquitoes while humans are incidental, dead-end hosts. Climate change may increase the risk of human infections as climatic variables have been shown to affect the mosquito life cycle, biting rate, incubation period of the disease in mosquitoes, and bird migration patterns. We develop a zero-inflated Poisson model to investigate how human West Nile virus case counts vary with respect to mosquito abundance and infection rates, bird abundance, and other environmental covariates. We use a Bayesian paradigm to fit our model to data from 2010-2019 in Ontario, Canada. Our results show mosquito infection rate, temperature, precipitation, and crow abundance are positively correlated with human cases while NDVI and robin abundance are negatively correlated with human cases. We find the inclusion of spatial random effects allows for more accurate predictions, particularly in years where cases are higher. Our model is able to accurately predict the magnitude and timing of yearly West Nile virus outbreaks and could be a valuable tool for public health officials to implement prevention strategies to mitigate these outbreaks.

Epidemiological and Evolutionary Analysis of West Nile Virus Lineage 2 in Italy

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne virus potentially causing serious illness in humans and other animals. Since 2004, several studies have highlighted the progressive spread of WNV Lineage 2 (L2) in Europe, with Italy being one of the countries with the highest number of cases of West Nile disease reported. In this paper, we give an overview of the epidemiological and genetic features characterising the spread and evolution of WNV L2 in Italy, leveraging data obtained from national surveillance activities between 2011 and 2021, including 46 newly assembled genomes that were analysed under both phylogeographic and phylodynamic frameworks. In addition, to better understand the seasonal patterns of the virus, we used a machine learning model predicting areas at high-risk of WNV spread. Our results show a progressive increase in WNV L2 in Italy, clarifying the dynamics of interregional circulation, with no significant introductions from other countries in recent years. Moreover, the predicting model identified the presence of suitable conditions for the 2022 earlier and wider spread of WNV in Italy, underlining the importance of using quantitative models for early warning detection of WNV outbreaks. Taken together, these findings can be used as a reference to develop new strategies to mitigate the impact of the pathogen on human and other animal health in endemic areas and new regions.

West Nile virus IgG antibodies among blood donors in Sudan: a cross-sectional study

while the world is concentrated on fighting SARS-CoV-2, other viruses such as West Nile virus (WNV) attack the communities silently. West Nile Virus (WNV) is established as one of the infectious agents that transmissible blood transfusion. The present study is cross-sectional, conducted in the central blood bank, Khartoum state, Sudan, and aimed to determine WNV IgG antibodies among blood donors.

METHODS

the antibodies of the IgG class against West Nile virus in the serum were determined using the ELISA technique. Ninety blood donors participated in this study.

RESULTS

the results showed that 67(74.4%) of participants had positive IgG for WNV. The majority of positive participants 28/67(41.8%) had an age between 28-37 years followed by an age group 18-27 years 24/67(35.8), the dominant blood group of the positive WNV IgG participants was A+ 26/67 (38.8%) followed by O+ 19/67(28.4%). The result displayed that 40(59.7%) of the positive IgG had donated blood several times and 58 (86.6%) had a blood transfusion. Statistical analysis showed an insignificant association between age group, blood group, blood donation, blood transfusion, and West Nile Virus.

CONCLUSIONS

the high IgG seroprevalence (which indicated previous infection) in the present study suggests high virus circulation in Sudan. This situation proposed that WNF screening test should be part of blood transfusion screening tests in Sudan.

West Nile Virus Infection: A Cross-Sectional Study on Italian Medical Professionals during Summer Season 2022

West Nile virus (WNV) has progressively endemized in large areas of continental Europe, and particularly in Northern Italy, in the Po River Valley. During summer season 2022, Italy experienced an unprecedented surge in incidence cases of WNV infections, including its main complications (West Nile fever (WNF) and West Nile neuroinvasive disease (WNND)). As knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) of medical professionals may be instrumental in guaranteeing a prompt diagnosis and an accurate management of incident cases, we performed a cross-sectional study specifically on a sample of Italian medical professionals (1 August 2022-10 September 2022; around 8800 potential recipients). From a total of 332 questionnaires (response rate of 3.8%), 254 participating medical professionals were eventually included in the analyses. Knowledge status of participants was unsatisfying, as most of them exhibited knowledge gaps on the actual epidemiology of WNV, with similar uncertainties on the clinical features of WNF and WNND. Moreover, most of participants substantially overlooked WNV as a human pathogen when compared to SARS-CoV-2, TB, and even HIV. Interestingly, only 65.4% of respondents were either favorable or highly favorable towards a hypothetical WNV vaccine. Overall, acknowledging a higher risk perception on WNV was associated with individual factors such as reporting a seniority ≥ 10 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.39, 95% Confidence interval [95%CI] 1.34 to 4.28), reporting a better knowledge score (aOR 2.92, 95%CI 1.60 to 5.30), having previously managed cases of WNV infections (aOR 3.65, 95%CI 1.14 to 14.20), being favorable towards a hypothetic vaccine (aOR 2.16, 95%CI 1.15 to 4.04), and perceiving WNV infections as potentially affecting daily activities (aOR 2.57, 95%CI 1.22 to 5.42). In summary, substantial knowledge gaps and the erratic risk perception collectively enlighten the importance and the urgency for appropriate information campaigns among medical professionals, and particularly among frontline personnel.

Efficacy Evaluation of Oregano Essential Oil Mixed with Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis and Diflubenzuron against Culex pipiens and Aedes albopictus in Road Drains of Italy

Mosquito management programs in the urban environment of Italian cities mainly rely on larval control with conventional insecticides, primarily targeting the road drains that constitute the principal mosquito breeding sites encountered in public. The repeated utilization of synthetic insecticides may have adverse effects on non-targets and lead to resistance development issues, while the performance of biopesticides encounters limitations in field use. Botanical insecticides as single larval control agents or in binary mixtures with conventional insecticides have been extensively studied in the laboratory as an effective and eco-friendly alternative mosquito control method with promising results. The study herein concerns the investigation, for the first time under realistic conditions in the field, of the joint action of a carvacrol-rich oregano Essential Oil (EO) with two conventional insecticides, namely, the insect growth regulator diflubenzuron and the bio-insecticide Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis (B.t.i.), in road drains in Crevalcore city, Italy, against Culex pipiens and Aedes albopictus. According to the obtained results, the application of both plain EO and its mixtures with diflubenzuron and B.t.i. exerted very high efficacy in terms of immature mosquito population reduction over a two-week period. Three weeks after treatment, the performance of the oil and its mixtures diminished but remained high, while the addition of diflubenzuron potentiated the persistent action of the oil against Cx. pipiens. These findings are indicative of the potential of mixing carvacrol-rich EO with diflubenzuron and B.t.i. as an efficient eco-friendly alternative to mono-insecticide applications in road drains against Cx. pipiens and Ae. albopictus larvae.

Spatial Analysis of Mosquito-Borne Diseases in Europe: A Scoping Review

Mosquito-borne infections are increasing in endemic areas and previously unaffected regions. In 2020, the notification rate for Dengue was 0.5 cases per 100,000 population, and for Chikungunya <0.1/100,000. In 2019, the rate for Malaria was 1.3/100,000, and for West Nile Virus, 0.1/100,000. Spatial analysis is increasingly used in surveillance and epidemiological investigation, but reviews about their use in this research topic are scarce. We identify and describe the methodological approaches used to investigate the distribution and ecological determinants of mosquito-borne infections in Europe. Relevant literature was extracted from PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science from inception until October 2021 and analysed according to PRISMA-ScR protocol. We identified 110 studies. Most used geographical correlation analysis (n = 50), mainly applying generalised linear models, and the remaining used spatial cluster detection (n = 30) and disease mapping (n = 30), mainly conducted using frequentist approaches. The most studied infections were Dengue (n = 32), Malaria (n = 26), Chikungunya (n = 26), and West Nile Virus (n = 24), and the most studied ecological determinants were temperature (n = 39), precipitation (n = 24), water bodies (n = 14), and vegetation (n = 11). Results from this review may support public health programs for mosquito-borne disease prevention and may help guide future research, as we recommended various good practices for spatial epidemiological studies.

Artificial intelligence to predict West Nile virus outbreaks with eco-climatic drivers

Background

In Europe, the frequency, intensity, and geographic range of West Nile virus (WNV)-outbreaks have increased over the past decade, with a 7.2-fold increase in 2018 compared to 2017, and a markedly expanded geographic area compared to 2010. The reasons for this increase and range expansion remain largely unknown due to the complexity of the transmission pathways and underlying disease drivers. In a first, we use advanced artificial intelligence to disentangle the contribution of eco-climatic drivers to WNV-outbreaks across Europe using decade-long (2010-2019) data at high spatial resolution.

Methods

We use a high-performance machine learning classifier, XGBoost (eXtreme gradient boosting) combined with state-of-the-art XAI (eXplainable artificial intelligence) methodology to describe the predictive ability and contribution of different drivers of the emergence and transmission of WNV-outbreaks in Europe, respectively.

Findings

Our model, trained on 2010-2017 data achieved an AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) score of 0.97 and 0.93 when tested with 2018 and 2019 data, respectively, showing a high discriminatory power to classify a WNV-endemic area. Overall, positive summer/spring temperatures anomalies, lower water availability index (NDWI), and drier winter conditions were found to be the main determinants of WNV-outbreaks across Europe. The climate trends of the preceding year in combination with eco-climatic predictors of the first half of the year provided a robust predictive ability of the entire transmission season ahead of time. For the extraordinary 2018 outbreak year, relatively higher spring temperatures and the abundance of Culex mosquitoes were the strongest predictors, in addition to past climatic trends.

Interpretation

Our AI-based framework can be deployed to trigger rapid and timely alerts for active surveillance and vector control measures in order to intercept an imminent WNV-outbreak in Europe.

Funding

The work was partially funded by the Swedish Research Council FORMAS for the project ARBOPREVENT (grant agreement 2018-05973).

Seroprevalence and Risk Factors for Equine West Nile Virus Infections in Eastern Germany, 2020

West Nile virus (WNV) infections were first detected in Germany in 2018, but information about WNV seroprevalence in horses is limited. The study’s overall goal was to gather information that would help veterinarians, horse owners, and veterinary-, and public health- authorities understand the spread of WNV in Germany and direct protective measures. For this purpose, WNV seroprevalence was determined in counties with and without previously registered WNV infections in horses, and risk factors for seropositivity were estimated. The cohort consisted of privately owned horses from nine counties in Eastern Germany. A total of 940 serum samples was tested by competitive panflavivirus ELISA (cELISA), and reactive samples were further tested by WNV IgM capture ELISA and confirmed by virus neutralization test (VNT). Information about potential risk factors was recorded by questionnaire and analyzed by logistic regression. A total of 106 serum samples showed antibodies against flaviviruses by cELISA, of which six tested positive for WNV IgM. The VNT verified a WNV infection for 54 samples (50.9%), while 35 sera neutralized tick-borne encephalitis virus (33.0%), and eight sera neutralized Usutu virus (7.5%). Hence, seroprevalence for WNV infection was 5.8% on average and was significantly higher in counties with previously registered infections (p = 0.005). The risk factor analysis showed breed type (pony), housing in counties with previously registered infections, housing type (24 h turn-out), and presence of outdoor shelter as the main significant risk factors for seropositivity. In conclusion, we estimated the extent of WNV infection in the resident horse population in Eastern Germany and showed that seroprevalence was higher in counties with previously registered equine WNV infections.

Assessment of the Costs Related to West Nile Virus Monitoring in Lombardy Region (Italy) between 2014 and 2018

In Italy, the West Nile Virus surveillance plan considers a multidisciplinary approach to identify the presence of the virus in the environment (entomological, ornithological, and equine surveillance) and to determine the risk of infections through potentially infected donors (blood and organ donors). The costs associated with the surveillance program for the Lombardy Region between 2014 and 2018 were estimated. The costs of the program were compared with a scenario in which the program was not implemented, requiring individual blood donation nucleic acid amplification tests (NAT) to detect the presence of WNV in human samples throughout the seasonal period of vector presence. Considering the five-year period, the application of the environmental/veterinary surveillance program allowed a reduction in costs incurred in the Lombardy Region of 7.7 million EUR. An integrated surveillance system, including birds, mosquito vectors, and dead-end hosts such as horses and humans, can prevent viral transmission to the human population, as well as anticipate the detection of WNV using NAT in blood and organ donors. The surveillance program within a One Health context has given the possibility to both document the expansion of the endemic area of WNV in northern Italy and avoid most of the NAT-related costs.

Insecticidal Effect of Wild-Grown Mentha pulegium and Rosmarinus officinalis Essential Oils and Their Main Monoterpenes against Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae)

The present study investigates the insecticidal effect of plant extract such as Mentha pulegium and Rosmarinus officinalis essential oils and some of their major compounds; these plants are well known for their many biological activities. The fumigant toxicity was evaluated, using glass jars, against female adults of Culex pipiens that constitute a mosquito vector of important diseases such as the West Nile virus. The adulticidal test showed that both essential oils and monoterpenes presented an insecticidal effect better than the chemical insecticide (Deltamethrin). The highest mortality percentages for the two essential oils have occurred at 312.5 µL/L air (between 56.14 ± 1.7% and 97.71 ± 3.03% after 24 h and 48 h of treatment). Moreover, all tested monoterpenes (carvone, R(+)-pulegone, 1,8-cineole, camphor and α-pinene) have produced high mortalities that varied depending on the time of the treatment and the concentrations used. Lethal concentrations (LC50) obtained for the essential oils and the main compounds have also varied according to the exposure time. M. pulegium and R. officinalis essential oil exhibited the lowest LC50 values after 24 h (72.94 and 222.82 µL/L air, respectively) and after 48 h (25.43 and 55.79 µL/L air, respectively) while the pure molecules revealed the lowest LC50 values after 48 h (between 84.96 and 578.84 µL/L air). This finding proves that the two essential oils and their main compounds have an insecticidal potential, which could help to develop natural toxic fumigants that may be used as an eco-friendly alternative in integrated and sustainable vector management.

Mapping the Risk for West Nile Virus Transmission, Africa

West Nile virus (WNV) is an emergent arthropodborne virus that is transmitted from bird to bird by mosquitoes. Spillover events occur when infected mosquitoes bite mammals. We created a geopositioned database of WNV presence in Africa and considered reports of the virus in all animal components: reservoirs, vectors, and nonhuman dead-end hosts. We built various biogeographic models to determine which drivers explain the distribution of WNV throughout Africa. Wetlands of international importance for birds accounted for the detection of WNV in all animal components, whereas human-related drivers played a key role in the epizootic cases. We combined these models to obtain an integrative and large-scale perspective of the areas at risk for WNV spillover. Understanding which areas pose the highest risk would enable us to address the management of this spreading disease and to comprehend the translocation of WNV outside Africa through avian migration routes.

Circulation of zoonotic flaviviruses in wild passerine birds in Western Spain

We explore the presence of zoonotic flaviviruses (West Nile virus (WNV) and Usutu virus (USUV)) neutralizing antibodies in rarely studied passerine bird species. We report, for the first time in Europe, WNV-specific antibodies in red avadavat and cetti's warbler, and USUV in yellow-crowned bishop. The evidence of WNV and USUV circulating in resident and migratory species has implications for both animal and public health. Future outbreaks in avian reservoir hosts may occur and passerines should be considered as priority target species in flavivirus surveillance programmes.

Crossing artificial obstacles during migration: The relative global ecological risks and interdependencies illustrated by the migration of common quail Coturnix coturnix

The increase of urban expansion, whereby soils become altered or filled with buildings through human action, presents a global threat to biodiversity and the spread of disease. Many of the factors determining bird migration routes and disease spread are poorly understood. We studied the migration routes of common quail Coturnix coturnix in western Europe. We examined the recoveries of ringed birds to characterize their migration trajectories to understand how this nocturnal migrant crosses artificial areas and predict the risk of migration collapse and disease transmission. We evaluated the possible consequences of quail collisions with human infrastructure elements (i.e., buildings, cranes, overhead cables and wires, and wind farm structures) to assess disease transmission in relation to the amount of urban soil. Our results show that variations in the amount of artificialized soil in central Europe are correlated with the relative absence of quail migratory routes. Conceptual models incorporating environmental ecology showed the relationships between climate warming, agroecosystems, and urban ecosystems as well as human health and economic growth. We predict a drastic loss of biodiversity and spread of disease if we do not curb the spread of land consumption. Taking a broad view of the interrelations discussed here allows predictions of global vulnerability and increased risks to health due to losses of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Lessons drawn from migration route maps of quail in relation to the distribution of urbanized soils provide tools for global conservation political decision making.

West Nile virus transmission potential in Portugal

It is unclear whether West Nile virus (WNV) circulates endemically in Portugal. Despite the country’s adequate climate for transmission, Portugal has only reported four human WNV infections so far. We performed a review of WNV-related data (1966–2020), explored mosquito (2016–2019) and land type distributions (1992–2019), and used climate data (1981–2019) to estimate WNV transmission suitability in Portugal. Serological and molecular evidence of WNV circulation from animals and vectors was largely restricted to the south. Land type and climate-driven transmission suitability distributions, but not the distribution of WNV-capable vectors, were compatible with the North-South divide present in serological and molecular evidence of WNV circulation. Our study offers a comprehensive, data-informed perspective and review on the past epidemiology, surveillance and climate-driven transmission suitability of WNV in Portugal, highlighting the south as a subregion of importance. Given the recent WNV outbreaks across Europe, our results support a timely change towards local, active surveillance.

Lourenço et al. review historical data and quantify the transmission potential of West Nile virus in Portugal. They report a North-South divide in infection patterns, a higher ecological capacity in the south, and an increasing positive effect of climate change over the last 40 years.

Emergence of West Nile Virus Lineage-2 in Resident Corvids in Istanbul, Turkey

West Nile fever is a vector-borne viral disease affecting animals and humans causing significant health and economic problems globally. This study was aimed at investigating circulating West Nile virus (WNV) strains in free-ranging corvids in Istanbul, Turkey. Brain, liver, and kidney were collected from corvids (n = 34) between June 2019 and April 2020 and analyzed for the presence of WNV-specific RNA by quantitative RT-PCR. In addition, histopathologic and immunohistochemical examinations were also performed. Samples found to be positive by qRT-PCR were partially sequenced. WNV-specific RNA was detected in 8 of 34 corvids analyzed, which included 7 hooded crows (Corvus cornix) and 1 Eurasian magpie (Pica pica). Phylogenetic analysis based on partial WNV sequences from the 8 WNV-positive corvids identified in this study revealed that all sequences clustered within the WNV lineage-2; they were at least 97% homologues to WNV lineage-2 sequences from Slovakia, Italy, Czechia, Hungary, Senegal, Austria, Serbia, Greece, Bulgaria, and Germany. WNV sequences showed a divergence (87.94-94.46%) from sequences reported from Romania, Central African Republic, South Africa, Madagascar, Israel, and Cyprus, which clustered into a different clade of WNV lineage-2. Common histopathologic findings of WNV-positive corvids included lymphoplasmacytic hepatitis, myocarditis, and splenitis. The liver and heart were found to be the tissues most consistently positive for WNV-specific antigen by immunohistochemistry, followed by the kidney and brain. This study demonstrates for the first time the existence of WNV virus belonging to the genetic lineage-2 in resident corvids in Istanbul, Turkey. We hypothesize that the WNV strains circulating in Istanbul are possibly the result of a spillover event from Europe. Since WNV is a zoonotic pathogen transmitted by mosquito vectors, the emergence of WNV in Istanbul also poses a risk to humans and other susceptible animals in this densely populated city and needs to be addressed by animal and public health authorities.

Anticipating the locations in Europe of high-risk areas for West Nile virus outbreaks in 2021

West Nile virus infections in humans are continuously increasing, and the virus has spread considerably in Europe over the past decade. The incidence of the disease was unusually high between 2018 and 2020. The resulting model identifies the West Nile virus outbreak-prone areas during 2021, even in regions where the virus has not yet been discovered. It is remarkable that in Central Europe, new favourable areas are emerging, where early actions could lessen the impact of the disease.

Public Perceptions on Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions for West Nile Virus Infections: A Survey from an Endemic Area in Northern Italy

During the last decade, cases of West Nile Virus (WNV) have occurred in the Emilia Romagna Region (ERR). Even though the notification rates remain relatively low, ranging from 0.06 to 1.83 cases/100,000 inhabitants, the persistent pathogen's circulation in settings characterized by favorable environmental characteristics suggests that WNV is becoming endemic to the Po River Valley. This study assesses knowledge, attitudes, and preventive practices toward WNV prevention among residents from 10 high-risk municipalities from the provinces of Parma and Reggio Emilia (total population: 82,317 inhabitants, census 2020). A web-based survey, based on the health belief model, was performed during the month of January 2021, with a convenience sampling of 469 participants from a series of closed discussion groups on social media (i.e., 2.1% of the potential responders). A total of 243 participants knew the meaning of WNV: Of them, 61.3% were aware of previous WNV infections in ERR, 76.5% acknowledged WNV infection as a severe one, but only 31.3% expressed any worry about WNV. Our results irregularly report preventive practices, either collective (e.g., draining standing water from items and the environment, 50.7%; spraying pesticides around the home, 33.0%) or individual (e.g., use of skin repellants when going outdoors, 42.6%). In a multivariate analysis, performed through binary logistic regression, participants reporting any worry towards WNV were more likely to characterize WNV as a severe disease (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 20.288, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.083-80.972). On the contrary, respondents supporting community mosquito control programs were more likely among people working with animals/livestock (aOR = 13.948, 95%CI = 2.793-69.653), and supporting tax exemptions for mosquito control programs (aOR = 4.069, 95%CI 2.098-7.893). In conclusion, our results suggest that future interventions promoting WNV prevention among residents in ERR should focus on perceptions of vulnerability to WNV, emphasizing the benefits of personal protective behaviors.

Epidemiology of West Nile Virus Infections in Humans, Italy, 2012-2020: A Summary of Available Evidences

In Italy, human cases of West Nile virus (WNV) infection have been recorded since 2008, and seasonal outbreaks have occurred almost annually. In this study, we summarize available evidences on the epidemiology of WNV and West Nile neuro-invasive disease (WNND) in humans reported between 2012 and 2020. In total, 1145 WNV infection cases were diagnosed; of them 487 (42.5%) had WNND. A significant circulation of the pathogen was suggested by studies on blood donors, with annual incidence rates ranging from 1.353 (95% confidence intervals (95% CI) 0.279-3.953) to 19.069 cases per 100,000 specimens (95% CI 13.494-26.174). The annual incidence rates of WNND increased during the study period from 0.047 cases per 100,000 (95% CI 0.031-0.068) in 2012, to 0.074 cases per 100,000 (95% CI 0.054-0.099) in 2020, peaking to 0.377 cases per 100,000 (95% CI 0.330-0.429) in 2018. There were 60 deaths. Cases of WNND were clustered in Northern Italy, particularly in the Po River Valley, during the months of August (56.7%) and September (27.5%). Higher risk for WNND was reported in subjects of male sex (risk ratio (RR) 1.545, 95% CI 1.392-1.673 compared to females), and in older age groups (RR 24.46, 95% CI 15.61-38.32 for 65-74 y.o.; RR 43.7, 95% CI 28.33-67.41 for subjects older than 75 years), while main effectors were identified in average air temperatures (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.3219, 95% CI 1.0053-1.7383), population density (IRR 1.0004, 95% CI 1.0001-1.0008), and occurrence of cases in the nearby provinces (IRR 1.0442, 95% CI 1.0340-1.0545). In summary, an enhanced surveillance is vital for the early detection of human cases and the prompt implementation of response measures.