Could a rabies incursion spread in the northern Australian dingo population? Development of a spatial stochastic simulation model

What would be the impact on the rabies risk of reducing the waiting period before dogs are imported? A modelling study based on the European Union legislation

AIMS

Lyssavirus rabies (RABV) is responsible for a major zoonotic infection that is almost always lethal once clinical signs appear. Rabies can be (re)introduced into rabies-free areas through transboundary dog movements, thus compromising animal and human health. A number of measures have been implemented to prevent this happening, one of which is the waiting period (WP) after anti-rabies vaccination and serological testing. This WP ensures that antibodies assessed through the serological test are due to the vaccine, not to infection. Indeed, if antibodies are due to RABV infection, the dog should display clinical signs within this WP and would not therefore be imported.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Within a framework of quantitative risk assessment, we used modelling approaches to evaluate the impact of this WP and its duration on the risk of introducing rabies via the importation of dogs into the European Union. Two types of models were used, a classical stochastic scenario tree model and an individual-based model, both parameterised using scientific literature or data specifically applicable to the EU. Results showed that, assuming perfect compliance, the current 3-month waiting period was associated with a median annual number of 0.04 infected dogs imported into the EU. When the WP was reduced, the risk increased. For example, for a 1-month WP, the median annual number of infected dogs imported was 0.17 or 0.15 depending on the model, which corresponds to a four-fold increase.

CONCLUSION

This in silico study, particularly suitable for evaluating rare events such as rabies infections in rabies-free areas, provided results that can directly inform policymakers in order to adapt regulations linked to rabies and animal movements.

Spatial and temporal dynamic analysis of rabies: A review of current methodologies

Rabies continues to be one of the deadliest, high risk diseases worldwide, posing a severe threat to public health. The lack of human-to-human transmission means that the spread of rabies is not significantly affected by the distribution of humans or migra- tion. Thus, the spatiotemporal dynamic of cases in both wild and domestic animals is an important issue that can result in human cases. This paper gives an overview of the methodologies for the spatial and temporal dynamic analysis of this disease. It introduces the most representative research progress of spatial aggregation, dynamic transmission, spatiotemporal distribution, epidemiologi- cal analysis and application of modelling in the study of rabies transmission in recent years. This overview should be useful for investigating the spatial and temporal dynamics of rabies, as it could help understanding the spread of cases as well as contribute to the development of better prevention and control strategies in ecology and epidemiology.

Rabies in the Tropics

Purpose of Review

Rabies is an ancient yet still neglected tropical disease (NTD). This review focuses upon highlights of recent research and peer-reviewed communications on the underestimated tropical burden of disease and its management due to the complicated dynamics of virulent viral species, diverse mammalian reservoirs, and tens of millions of exposed humans and animals - and how laboratory-based surveillance at each level informs upon pathogen spread and risks of transmission, for targeted prevention and control.

Recent Findings

While both human and rabies animal cases in enzootic areas over the past 5 years were reported to PAHO/WHO and OIE by member countries, still there is a huge gap between these "official" data and the need for enhanced surveillance efforts to meet global program goals.

Summary

A review of the complex aspects of rabies perpetuation in human, domestic animal, and wildlife communities, coupled with a high fatality rate despite the existence of efficacious biologics (but no therapeutics), warrants the need for a One Health approach toward detection via improved laboratory-based surveillance, with focal management at the viral source. More effective methods to prevent the spread of rabies from enzootic to free zones are needed.

Rabies in Our Neighbourhood: Preparedness for an Emerging Infectious Disease

Emerging infectious disease (EID) events have the potential to cause devastating impacts on human, animal and environmental health. A range of tools exist which can be applied to address EID event detection, preparedness and response. Here we use a case study of rabies in Southeast Asia and Oceania to illustrate, via nearly a decade of research activities, how such tools can be systematically integrated into a framework for EID preparedness. During the past three decades, canine rabies has spread to previously free areas of Southeast Asia, threatening the rabies-free status of countries such as Timor Leste, Papua New Guinea and Australia. The program of research to address rabies preparedness in the Oceanic region has included scanning and surveillance to define the emerging nature of canine rabies within the Southeast Asia region; field studies to collect information on potential reservoir species, their distribution and behaviour; participatory and sociological studies to identify priorities for disease response; and targeted risk assessment and disease modelling studies. Lessons learnt include the need to develop methods to collect data in remote regions, and the need to continuously evaluate and update requirements for preparedness in response to evolving drivers of emerging infectious disease.