A comprehensive breath plume model for disease transmission via expiratory aerosols

Exposure-response relationship between temperature, relative humidity, and varicella: a multicity study in South China

Varicella is a rising public health issue. Several studies have tried to quantify the relationships between meteorological factors and varicella incidence but with inconsistent results. We aim to investigate the impact of temperature and relative humidity on varicella, and to further explore the effect modification of these relationships. In this study, the data of varicella and meteorological factors from 2011 to 2019 in 21 cities of Guangdong Province, China were collected. Distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) were constructed to explore the relationship between meteorological factors (temperature and relative humidity) and varicella in each city, controlling in school terms, holidays, seasonality, long-term trends, and day of week. Multivariate meta-analysis was applied to pool the city-specific estimations. And the meta-regression was used to explore the effect modification for the spatial heterogeneity of city-specific meteorological factors and social factors (such as disposable income per capita, vaccination coverage, and so on) on varicella. The results indicated that the relationship between temperature and varicella in 21 cities appeared nonlinear with an inverted S-shaped. The relative risk peaked at 20.8 ℃ (RR = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.22, 1.65). The relative humidity-varicella relationship was approximately L-shaped, with a peaking risk at 69.5% relative humidity (RR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.50). The spatial heterogeneity of temperature-varicella relationships may be caused by income or varicella vaccination coverage. And varicella vaccination coverage may contribute to the spatial heterogeneity of the relative humidity-varicella relationship. The findings can help us deepen the understanding of the meteorological factors-varicella association and provide evidence for developing prevention strategy for varicella epidemic.

The impact of heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) design features on the transmission of viruses, including the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19): A systematic review of humidity

The aerosol route has been a pathway for transmission of many viruses. Similarly, recent evidence has determined aerosol transmission for SARS-CoV-2 to be significant. Consequently, public health officials and professionals have sought data regarding the role of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) features as a means to mitigate transmission of viruses, particularly coronaviruses. Using international standards, a systematic review was conducted to comprehensively identify and synthesize research examining the effect of humidity on transmission of coronaviruses and influenza. The results from 24 relevant studies showed that: increasing from mid (40–60%) to high (>60%) relative humidity (RH) for SARS-CoV-2 was associated with decreased virus survival; although SARS-CoV-2 results appear consistent, coronaviruses do not all behave the same; increasing from low (<40%) to mid RH for influenza was associated with decreased persistence, infectivity, viability, and survival, however effects of increased humidity from mid to high for influenza were not consistent; and medium, temperature, and exposure time were associated with inconsistency in results for both coronaviruses and influenza. Adapting humidity to mitigate virus transmission is complex. When controlling humidity as an HVAC feature, practitioners should take into account virus type and temperature. Future research should also consider the impact of exposure time, temperature, and medium when designing experiments, while also working towards more standardized testing procedures.

Clinical trial registration: PROSPERO 2020 CRD42020193968.

Transmission characteristics of respiratory droplets aerosol in indoor environment: an experimental study

Transmission of droplets has been recognized as an important form of infection for the respiratory diseases. This study investigated the distribution of human respiratory droplets and assessed the effects of air change rate and generated velocity on droplet transmission using an active agent in an enclosed chamber (46 m³). Results revealed that the higher the air change rate was, the fewer viable droplets were detected in the range of <3.3 μm with ventilation; an increased air change rate can increase the attenuation of droplet aerosol. Without ventilation, the viable droplet size was observed to mainly distribute greater than 3.3 μm, which occupied up 87.5% of the total number. When the generated velocity was increased to 20 m/s, 29.38% of the viable droplets were detected at the position of 2.0 m. The findings are excepted to be useful for developing the technology of reducing droplet propagation and providing data verification for simulation research.

End-to-end design of wearable sensors

Wearable devices provide an alternative pathway to clinical diagnostics by exploiting various physical, chemical and biological sensors to mine physiological (biophysical and/or biochemical) information in real time (preferably, continuously) and in a non-invasive or minimally invasive manner. These sensors can be worn in the form of glasses, jewellery, face masks, wristwatches, fitness bands, tattoo-like devices, bandages or other patches, and textiles. Wearables such as smartwatches have already proved their capability for the early detection and monitoring of the progression and treatment of various diseases, such as COVID-19 and Parkinson disease, through biophysical signals. Next-generation wearable sensors that enable the multimodal and/or multiplexed measurement of physical parameters and biochemical markers in real time and continuously could be a transformative technology for diagnostics, allowing for high-resolution and time-resolved historical recording of the health status of an individual. In this Review, we examine the building blocks of such wearable sensors, including the substrate materials, sensing mechanisms, power modules and decision-making units, by reflecting on the recent developments in the materials, engineering and data science of these components. Finally, we synthesize current trends in the field to provide predictions for the future trajectory of wearable sensors.

An Assessment of Airborne Bacteria and Fungi in the Female Dormitory Environment: Level, Impact Factors and Dose Rate

In this study, the levels of airborne bacteria and fungi were tested in a female dormitory room; the effects of heating, relative humidity and number of occupants on indoor microorganisms were analyzed and the dose rate of exposure to microbes was assessed. The bacterial and fungal concentrations in the room ranged from 100 to several thousand CFU/m³, and the highest counts were observed in the morning (930 ± 1681 CFU/m³). Staphylococcus spp. and Micrococcus spp. were found in the dormitory. When the heating was on, the total bacterial and fungal counts were lower than when there was no heating. Moreover, statistically significant differences were observed for bacterial concentrations during the morning periods between the times when there was no heating and the times when there was heating. The number of occupants had an obvious positive effect on the total bacterial counts. Moreover, RH had no correlation with the airborne fungi in the dormitory, statistically. Furthermore, the highest dose rate from exposure to bacteria and fungi was observed during sleeping hours. The dose rate from exposure to airborne microorganisms in the dormitory was associated with the activity level in the room. These results helped to elucidate the threat of bioaerosols to the health of female occupants and provide guidance for protective measures.

Efficacy of Ventilation, HEPA Air Cleaners, Universal Masking, and Physical Distancing for Reducing Exposure to Simulated Exhaled Aerosols in a Meeting Room

There is strong evidence associating the indoor environment with transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 can spread by exposure to droplets and very fine aerosol particles from respiratory fluids that are released by infected persons. Layered mitigation strategies, including but not limited to maintaining physical distancing, adequate ventilation, universal masking, avoiding overcrowding, and vaccination, have shown to be effective in reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 within the indoor environment. Here, we examine the effect of mitigation strategies on reducing the risk of exposure to simulated respiratory aerosol particles within a classroom-style meeting room. To quantify exposure of uninfected individuals (Recipients), surrogate respiratory aerosol particles were generated by a breathing simulator with a headform (Source) that mimicked breath exhalations. Recipients, represented by three breathing simulators with manikin headforms, were placed in a meeting room and affixed with optical particle counters to measure 0.3-3 µm aerosol particles. Universal masking of all breathing simulators with a 3-ply cotton mask reduced aerosol exposure by 50% or more compared to scenarios with simulators unmasked. While evaluating the effect of Source placement, Recipients had the highest exposure at 0.9 m in a face-to-face orientation. Ventilation reduced exposure by approximately 5% per unit increase in air change per hour (ACH), irrespective of whether increases in ACH were by the HVAC system or portable HEPA air cleaners. The results demonstrate that mitigation strategies, such as universal masking and increasing ventilation, reduce personal exposure to respiratory aerosols within a meeting room. While universal masking remains a key component of a layered mitigation strategy of exposure reduction, increasing ventilation via system HVAC or portable HEPA air cleaners further reduces exposure.

Variability in expiratory trajectory angles during consonant production by one human subject and from a physical mouth model: Application to respiratory droplet emission

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to improve understanding of droplet transport during expiratory emissions. While historical emphasis has been placed on violent events such as coughing and sneezing, the recognition of asymptomatic and presymptomatic spread has identified the need to consider other modalities, such as speaking. Accurate prediction of infection risk produced by speaking requires knowledge of both the droplet size distributions that are produced, as well as the expiratory flow fields that transport the droplets into the surroundings. This work demonstrates that the expiratory flow field produced by consonant productions is highly unsteady, exhibiting extremely broad inter- and intra-consonant variability, with mean ejection angles varying from ≈+30° to -30°. Furthermore, implementation of a physical mouth model to quantify the expiratory flow fields for fricative pronunciation of [f] and [θ] demonstrates that flow velocities at the lips are higher than previously predicted, reaching 20-30 m/s, and that the resultant trajectories are unstable. Because both large and small droplet transport are directly influenced by the magnitude and trajectory of the expirated air stream, these findings indicate that prior investigations of the flow dynamics during speech have largely underestimated the fluid penetration distances that can be achieved for particular consonant utterances.

Non-respiratory particles emitted by guinea pigs in airborne disease transmission experiments

Animal models are often used to assess the airborne transmissibility of various pathogens, which are typically assumed to be carried by expiratory droplets emitted directly from the respiratory tract of the infected animal. We recently established that influenza virus is also transmissible via "aerosolized fomites," micron-scale dust particulates released from virus-contaminated surfaces (Asadi et al. in Nat Commun 11(1):4062, 2020). Here we expand on this observation, by counting and characterizing the particles emitted from guinea pig cages using an Aerodynamic Particle Sizer (APS) and an Interferometric Mie Imaging (IMI) system. Of over 9000 airborne particles emitted from guinea pig cages and directly imaged with IMI, none had an interference pattern indicative of a liquid droplet. Separate measurements of the particle count using the APS indicate that particle concentrations spike upwards immediately following animal motion, then decay exponentially with a time constant commensurate with the air exchange rate in the cage. Taken together, the results presented here raise the possibility that a non-negligible fraction of airborne influenza transmission events between guinea pigs occurs via aerosolized fomites rather than respiratory droplets, though the relative frequencies of these two routes have yet to be definitively determined.

Effect of Train-Induced Wind on the Transmission of COVID-19: A New Insight into Potential Infectious Risks

The unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic has caused a traffic tie-up across the world. In addition to home quarantine orders and travel bans, the social distance guideline of about six feet was enacted to reduce the risk of contagion. However, with recent life gradually returning to normal, the crisis is not over. In this research, a moving train test and a Gaussian puff model were employed to investigate the impact of wind raised by a train running on the transmission and dispersion of SARS-CoV-2 from infected individuals. Our findings suggest that the 2 m social distance guideline may not be enough; under train-induced wind action, human respiratory disease-carrier droplets may travel to unexpected places. However, there are deficiencies in passenger safety guidelines and it is necessary to improve the quantitative research in the relationship between train-induced wind and virus transmission. All these findings could provide a fresh insight to contain the spread of COVID-19 and provide a basis for preventing and controlling the pandemic virus, and probe into strategies for control of the disease in the future.

Revisiting physical distancing threshold in indoor environment using infection-risk-based modeling

Physical distancing has been an important policy to mitigate the spread of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in public settings. However, the current 1-2 m physical distancing rule is based on the physics of droplet transport and could not directly translate into infection risk. We therefore revisit the 2-m physical distancing rule by developing an infection-risk-based model for human speaking. The key modeling framework components include viral load, droplets dispersion and evaporation, deposition efficiency, viral dose-response rate and infection risk. The results suggest that the one-size-fits-all 2-m physical distancing rule derived from the pure droplet-physics-based model is not applicable under some realistic indoor settings, and may rather increase transmission probability of diseases. Especially, in thermally stratified environments, the infection risk could exhibit multiple peaks for a long distance beyond 2 m. With Sobol's sensitivity analysis, most variance of the risk is found to be significantly attributable to the variability in temperature gradient, exposure time and breathing height difference. Our study suggests there is no such magic 2 m physical distancing rule for all environments, but it needs to be used alongside other strategies, such as using face cover, reducing exposure time, and controlling the thermal stratification of indoor environment.

The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is likely comodulated by temperature and by relative humidity

Inferring the impact of climate upon the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has been confounded by variability in testing, unknown disease introduction rates, and changing weather. Here we present a data model that accounts for dynamic testing rates and variations in disease introduction rates. We apply this model to data from Colombia, whose varied and seasonless climate, central port of entry, and swift, centralized response to the COVID-19 pandemic present an opportune environment for assessing the impact of climate factors on the spread of COVID-19. We observe strong attenuation of transmission in climates with sustained daily temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius and simultaneous mean relative humidity below 78%, with outbreaks occurring at high humidity even where the temperature is high. We hypothesize that temperature and relative humidity comodulate the infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 within respiratory droplets.

Effect of relative humidity on hydrogen peroxide production in water droplets

Mist is generated by ultrasonic cavitation of water (Fisher Biograde, pH 5.5–6.5) at room temperature (20–25 °C) in open air with nearly constant temperature (22–25 °C) but varying relative humidity (RH; 24–52%) over the course of many months. Water droplets in the mist are initially about 7 μm in diameter at about 50% RH. They are collected, and the concentration of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) is measured using commercial peroxide test strips and by bromothymol blue oxidation. The quantification method is based on the Fenton chemistry of dye degradation to determine the oxidation capacity of water samples that have been treated by ultrasonication. It is found that the hydrogen peroxide concentration varies nearly linearly with RH over the range studied, reaching a low of 2 parts per million (ppm) at 24% RH and a high of 6 ppm at 52% RH. Some possible public health implications concerning the transmission of respiratory viral infections are suggested for this threefold change in H2O2 concentration with RH.

High-Fidelity Simulation of Pathogen Propagation, Transmission and Mitigation in the Built Environment

An overview of high-fidelity modeling of pathogen propagation, transmission and mitigation in the built environment is given. In order to derive the required physical and numerical models, the current understanding of pathogen, and in particular virus transmission and mitigation is summarized. The ordinary and partial differential equations that describe the flow, the particles and possibly the UV radiation loads in rooms or HVAC ducts are presented, as well as proper numerical methods to solve them in an expedient way. Thereafter, the motion of pedestrians, as well as proper ways to couple computational fluid dynamics and computational crowd dynamics to enable high-fidelity pathogen transmission and infection simulations is treated. The present review shows that high-fidelity simulations of pathogen propagation, transmission and mitigation in the built environment have reached a high degree of sophistication, offering a quantum leap in accuracy from simpler probabilistic models. This is particularly the case when considering the propagation of pathogens via aerosols in the presence of moving pedestrians.

Correlation between Children Respiratory Virus Infections and Climate Factors

Objective Respiratory viruses are the most important cause of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) in children. Meteorological factors can influence viral outbreaks. The objective of this study was to determine the association between climate variables and respiratory virus detection.

Methods Multicenter prospective 1-year surveillance was conducted among children hospitalized for LRTI in Tunisia. Nasopharyngeal aspirates were tested by direct immunofluorescence assay (DIFA) for the detection of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV); adenovirus (AdV); influenza virus (IFV) A and B; and parainfluenza virus 1, 2, and 3 (PIV1/2/3). Samples were further analyzed by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction for the detection of human metapneumovirus (hMPV). Monthly meteorological data were determined by consulting the National Institute of Meteorology and the World Weather Online Meteorological Company websites. Pearson's correlation tests were used to determine the statistical association between the detection of respiratory viruses and climatic characteristics.

Results Among 572 patients, 243 (42.5%) were positive for at least one virus. The most frequently detected viruses by DIFA were RSV (30.0%), followed by IFVA (3.8%), IFVB (3.5%), PIV (0.9%), and AdV (0.9%). HMPV was detected in 13 RSV-negative samples (3.3%). Dual infections were detected in seven cases (1.2%). Monthly global respiratory viruses and RSV detections correlated significantly with temperature, rainfall, cloud cover, wind speed, wind temperature, and duration of sunshine. Monthly IFV detection significantly correlated with rainfall, wind speed, wind temperature, and duration of sunshine. HMPV detection significantly correlated with temperature and wind temperature.

Conclusion Respiratory viral outbreaks are clearly related to meteorological factors in Tunisia.

The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is likely comodulated by temperature and by relative humidity

Inferring the impact of climate upon the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has been confounded by variability in testing, unknown disease introduction rates, and changing weather. Here we present a data model that accounts for dynamic testing rates and variations in disease introduction rates. We apply this model to data from Colombia, whose varied and seasonless climate, central port of entry, and swift, centralized response to the COVID-19 pandemic present an opportune environment for assessing the impact of climate factors on the spread of COVID-19. We observe strong attenuation of transmission in climates with sustained daily temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius and simultaneous mean relative humidity below 78%, with outbreaks occurring at high humidity even where the temperature is high. We hypothesize that temperature and relative humidity comodulate the infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 within respiratory droplets.

Aerosol Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: Physical Principles and Implications

Evidence has emerged that SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, can be transmitted airborne in aerosol particles as well as in larger droplets or by surface deposits. This minireview outlines the underlying aerosol science, making links to aerosol research in other disciplines. SARS-CoV-2 is emitted in aerosol form during normal breathing by both asymptomatic and symptomatic people, remaining viable with a half-life of up to about an hour during which air movement can carry it considerable distances, although it simultaneously disperses. The proportion of the droplet size distribution within the aerosol range depends on the sites of origin within the respiratory tract and on whether the distribution is presented on a number or volume basis. Evaporation and fragmentation reduce the size of the droplets, whereas coalescence increases the mean droplet size. Aerosol particles containing SARS-CoV-2 can also coalesce with pollution particulates, and infection rates correlate with pollution. The operation of ventilation systems in public buildings and transportation can create infection hazards via aerosols, but provides opportunities for reducing the risk of transmission in ways as simple as switching from recirculated to outside air. There are also opportunities to inactivate SARS-CoV-2 in aerosol form with sunlight or UV lamps. The efficiency of masks for blocking aerosol transmission depends strongly on how well they fit. Research areas that urgently need further experimentation include the basis for variation in droplet size distribution and viral load, including droplets emitted by "superspreader" individuals; the evolution of droplet sizes after emission, their interaction with pollutant aerosols and their dispersal by turbulence, which gives a different basis for social distancing.

Detailed simulation of viral propagation in the built environment

A summary is given of the mechanical characteristics of virus contaminants and the transmission via droplets and aerosols. The ordinary and partial differential equations describing the physics of these processes with high fidelity are presented, as well as appropriate numerical schemes to solve them. Several examples taken from recent evaluations of the built environment are shown, as well as the optimal placement of sensors.

Influenza Virus Infectivity Is Retained in Aerosols and Droplets Independent of Relative Humidity

Pandemic and seasonal influenza viruses can be transmitted through aerosols and droplets, in which viruses must remain stable and infectious across a wide range of environmental conditions. Using humidity-controlled chambers, we studied the impact of relative humidity on the stability of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus in suspended aerosols and stationary droplets. Contrary to the prevailing paradigm that humidity modulates the stability of respiratory viruses in aerosols, we found that viruses supplemented with material from the apical surface of differentiated primary human airway epithelial cells remained equally infectious for 1 hour at all relative humidities tested. This sustained infectivity was observed in both fine aerosols and stationary droplets. Our data suggest, for the first time, that influenza viruses remain highly stable and infectious in aerosols across a wide range of relative humidities. These results have significant implications for understanding the mechanisms of transmission of influenza and its seasonality.

Mechanistic insights into the effect of humidity on airborne influenza virus survival, transmission and incidence

Influenza incidence and seasonality, along with virus survival and transmission, appear to depend at least partly on humidity, and recent studies have suggested that absolute humidity (AH) is more important than relative humidity (RH) in modulating observed patterns. In this perspective article, we re-evaluate studies of influenza virus survival in aerosols, transmission in animal models and influenza incidence to show that the combination of temperature and RH is equally valid as AH as a predictor. Collinearity must be considered, as higher levels of AH are only possible at higher temperatures, where it is well established that virus decay is more rapid. In studies of incidence that employ meteorological data, outdoor AH may be serving as a proxy for indoor RH in temperate regions during the wintertime heating season. Finally, we present a mechanistic explanation based on droplet evaporation and its impact on droplet physics and chemistry for why RH is more likely than AH to modulate virus survival and transmission.

Mechanistic insights into the effect of humidity on airborne influenza virus survival, transmission and incidence

Influenza incidence and seasonality, along with virus survival and transmission, appear to depend at least partly on humidity, and recent studies have suggested that absolute humidity (AH) is more important than relative humidity (RH) in modulating observed patterns. In this perspective article, we re-evaluate studies of influenza virus survival in aerosols, transmission in animal models and influenza incidence to show that the combination of temperature and RH is equally valid as AH as a predictor. Collinearity must be considered, as higher levels of AH are only possible at higher temperatures, where it is well established that virus decay is more rapid. In studies of incidence that employ meteorological data, outdoor AH may be serving as a proxy for indoor RH in temperate regions during the wintertime heating season. Finally, we present a mechanistic explanation based on droplet evaporation and its impact on droplet physics and chemistry for why RH is more likely than AH to modulate virus survival and transmission.

Influenza Virus Infection Model With Density Dependence Supports Biphasic Viral Decay

Mathematical models that describe infection kinetics help elucidate the time scales, effectiveness, and mechanisms underlying viral growth and infection resolution. For influenza A virus (IAV) infections, the standard viral kinetic model has been used to investigate the effect of different IAV proteins, immune mechanisms, antiviral actions, and bacterial coinfection, among others. We sought to further define the kinetics of IAV infections by infecting mice with influenza A/PR8 and measuring viral loads with high frequency and precision over the course of infection. The data highlighted dynamics that were not previously noted, including viral titers that remain elevated for several days during mid-infection and a sharp 4–5 log₁₀ decline in virus within 1 day as the infection resolves. The standard viral kinetic model, which has been widely used within the field, could not capture these dynamics. Thus, we developed a new model that could simultaneously quantify the different phases of viral growth and decay with high accuracy. The model suggests that the slow and fast phases of virus decay are due to the infected cell clearance rate changing as the density of infected cells changes. To characterize this model, we fit the model to the viral load data, examined the parameter behavior, and connected the results and parameters to linear regression estimates. The resulting parameters and model dynamics revealed that the rate of viral clearance during resolution occurs 25 times faster than the clearance during mid-infection and that small decreases to this rate can significantly prolong the infection. This likely reflects the high efficiency of the adaptive immune response. The new model provides a well-characterized representation of IAV infection dynamics, is useful for analyzing and interpreting viral load dynamics in the absence of immunological data, and gives further insight into the regulation of viral control.

Crossing the scale from within-host infection dynamics to between-host transmission fitness: a discussion of current assumptions and knowledge

The progression of an infection within a host determines the ability of a pathogen to transmit to new hosts and to maintain itself in the population. While the general connection between the infection dynamics within a host and the population-level transmission dynamics of pathogens is widely acknowledged, a comprehensive and quantitative understanding that would allow full integration of the two scales is still lacking. Here, we provide a brief discussion of both models and data that have attempted to provide quantitative mappings from within-host infection dynamics to transmission fitness. We present a conceptual framework and provide examples of studies that have taken first steps towards development of a quantitative framework that scales from within-host infections to population-level fitness of different pathogens. We hope to illustrate some general themes, summarize some of the recent advances and-maybe most importantly-discuss gaps in our ability to bridge these scales, and to stimulate future research on this important topic.

Turbulent dispersion via fan-generated flows

Turbulent dispersion of passive scalar quantities has been extensively studied in wind tunnel settings, where the flow is carefully conditioned using flow straighteners and grids. Much less is known about turbulent dispersion in the "unconditioned" flows generated by fans that are ubiquitous in indoor environments, despite the importance of these flows to pathogen and contaminant transport. Here, we demonstrate that a point source of scalars released into an airflow generated by an axial fan yields a plume whose width is invariant with respect to the fan speed. The results point toward a useful simplification in modeling of disease and pollution spread via fan-generated flows.

How sticky should a virus be? The impact of virus binding and release on transmission fitness using influenza as an example

Budding viruses face a trade-off: virions need to efficiently attach to and enter uninfected cells while newly generated virions need to efficiently detach from infected cells. The right balance between attachment and detachment-the right amount of stickiness-is needed for maximum fitness. Here, we design and analyse a mathematical model to study in detail the impact of attachment and detachment rates on virus fitness. We apply our model to influenza, where stickiness is determined by a balance of the haemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) proteins. We investigate how drugs, the adaptive immune response and vaccines impact influenza stickiness and fitness. Our model suggests that the location in the 'stickiness landscape' of the virus determines how well interventions such as drugs or vaccines are expected to work. We discuss why hypothetical NA enhancer drugs might occasionally perform better than the currently available NA inhibitors in reducing virus fitness. We show that an increased antibody or T-cell-mediated immune response leads to maximum fitness at higher stickiness. We further show that antibody-based vaccines targeting mainly HA or NA, which leads to a shift in stickiness, might reduce virus fitness above what can be achieved by the direct immunological action of the vaccine. Overall, our findings provide potentially useful conceptual insights for future vaccine and drug development and can be applied to other budding viruses beyond influenza.

ABSL-4 aerobiology biosafety and technology at the NIH/NIAID integrated research facility at Fort Detrick

The overall threat of a viral pathogen to human populations is largely determined by the modus operandi and velocity of the pathogen that is transmitted among humans. Microorganisms that can spread by aerosol are considered a more challenging enemy than those that require direct body-to-body contact for transmission, due to the potential for infection of numerous people rather than a single individual. Additionally, disease containment is much more difficult to achieve for aerosolized viral pathogens than for pathogens that spread solely via direct person-to-person contact. Thus, aerobiology has become an increasingly necessary component for studying viral pathogens that are naturally or intentionally transmitted by aerosol. The goal of studying aerosol viral pathogens is to improve public health preparedness and medical countermeasure development. Here, we provide a brief overview of the animal biosafety level 4 Aerobiology Core at the NIH/NIAID Integrated Research Facility at Fort Detrick, Maryland, USA.

A multi-scale analysis of influenza A virus fitness trade-offs due to temperature-dependent virus persistence

Successful replication within an infected host and successful transmission between hosts are key to the continued spread of most pathogens. Competing selection pressures exerted at these different scales can lead to evolutionary trade-offs between the determinants of fitness within and between hosts. Here, we examine such a trade-off in the context of influenza A viruses and the differential pressures exerted by temperature-dependent virus persistence. For a panel of avian influenza A virus strains, we find evidence for a trade-off between the persistence at high versus low temperatures. Combining a within-host model of influenza infection dynamics with a between-host transmission model, we study how such a trade-off affects virus fitness on the host population level. We show that conclusions regarding overall fitness are affected by the type of link assumed between the within- and between-host levels and the main route of transmission (direct or environmental). The relative importance of virulence and immune response mediated virus clearance are also found to influence the fitness impacts of virus persistence at low versus high temperatures. Based on our results, we predict that if transmission occurs mainly directly and scales linearly with virus load, and virulence or immune responses are negligible, the evolutionary pressure for influenza viruses to evolve toward good persistence at high within-host temperatures dominates. For all other scenarios, influenza viruses with good environmental persistence at low temperatures seem to be favored.

It has recently been suggested that for avian influenza viruses, prolonged persistence in the environment plays an important role in the transmission between birds. In such situations, influenza virus strains may face a trade-off: they need to persist well in the environment at low temperatures, but they also need to do well inside an infected bird at higher temperatures. Here, we analyze how potential trade-offs on these two scales interact to determine overall fitness of the virus. We find that the link between infection dynamics within a host and virus shedding and transmission is crucial in determining the relative advantage of good low-temperature versus high-temperature persistence. We also find that the role of virus-induced mortality, the immune response and the route of transmission affect the balance between optimal low-temperature and high-temperature persistence.