Defining disease heterogeneity to guide the empirical treatment of febrile illness in resource poor settings

Identification of Pathogens Potentially Associated with Non-Malarial Fever in Children: A Pilot Study in Peri-Urban Dakar, Senegal

Fever is one of the most common reasons for pediatric consultation in Africa. Malaria incidence has now dropped considerably, yet etiologies of non-malarial febrile diseases are poorly documented. This pilot study aimed to 1) identify pathogens potentially associated with non-malarial fever in children younger than 10 years in the suburbs of Dakar and 2) describe the epidemiological characteristics of these patients. During the study period, all eligible children (< 10 years of age, body temperature ≥ 38°C, negative result for the malaria rapid diagnostic test, living in Guediawaye/Pikine for the previous four calendar months, not receiving any anti-infectious treatment since the onset of fever, and with parent's consent to participate) presenting to the health post in Medina Gounass located in Guediawaye on Mondays and Fridays were included. In total, 106 children participated in the study, and PCR from nasopharyngeal swabs, hemoculture, C-reactive protein, blood cell counts, and quantitative buffy coat from blood samples and coproculture from stool samples were performed. In 70 (66%) children, at least one pathogen was isolated. Viruses were identified in 55 children, most commonly enteroviruses, rhinoviruses, and adenoviruses, and dengue virus was identified in three children. Only five children had bacterial infections, and 10 had bacterial and viral coinfections. Ninety-seven children (92%) received prescription for antibiotics. Many strains of bacteria were found to be resistant to several antibiotics. Despite limitations, this pilot study showed that pathogens potentially associated with non-malarial fever in children younger than 10 years near Dakar were predominantly viruses, most commonly upper respiratory infections, although bacteria accounted for a small proportion.

Bacterial versus non-bacterial infections: a methodology to support use-case-driven product development of diagnostics

Acute febrile illness (AFI) is one of the most common reasons for seeking medical care in low-income and middle-income countries. Bacterial infections account for a relatively small proportion of AFIs; however, in the absence of a simple diagnostic test to guide clinical decisions, healthcare professionals often presume that a non-malarial febrile illness is bacterial in origin, potentially resulting in inappropriate antibiotic use. An accurate differential diagnostic tool for AFIs is thus essential, to both limit antibiotic use to bacterial infections and address the antimicrobial resistance crisis that is emerging globally, without resorting to multiple or complex pathogen-specific assays. The Biomarker for Fever-Diagnostic (BFF-Dx) study is one of the largest fever biomarker studies ever undertaken. We collected samples and classified disease aetiology in more than 1900 individuals, distributed among enrolment centres in three countries on two continents. Identical protocols were followed at each study site, and the same analyses were conducted in each setting, enabling like-with-like comparisons to be made among the large sample set generated. The BFF-Dx methodology can act as a model for other researchers, facilitating wider utility of the work in the future. The established sample collection is now accessible to researchers and companies and will facilitate the development of future fever-related diagnostic tests. Here, we outline the methodology used to determine the sample populations and to differentiate bacterial versus non-bacterial AFIs. Future publications will set out in more detail the study’s demographics, the causes of fever identified and the performance of selected biomarkers.

Algorithm in the Diagnosis of Febrile Illness Using Pathogen-specific Rapid Diagnostic Tests

BACKGROUND

In the absence of proper guidelines and algorithms, available rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for common acute undifferentiated febrile illnesses are often used inappropriately.

METHODS

Using prevalence data of 5 common febrile illnesses from India and Cambodia, and performance characteristics (sensitivity and specificity) of relevant pathogen-specific RDTs, we used a mathematical model to predict the probability of correct identification of each disease when diagnostic testing occurs either simultaneously or sequentially in various algorithms. We developed a web-based application of the model so as to visualize and compare output diagnostic algorithms when different disease prevalence and test performance characteristics are introduced.

RESULTS

Diagnostic algorithms with appropriate sequential testing predicted correct identification of etiology in 74% and 89% of patients in India and Cambodia, respectively, compared with 46% and 49% with simultaneous testing. The optimally performing sequential diagnostic algorithms differed in India and Cambodia due to varying disease prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

Simultaneous testing is not appropriate for the diagnosis of acute undifferentiated febrile illnesses with presently available tests, which should deter the unsupervised use of multiplex diagnostic tests. The implementation of adaptive algorithms can predict better diagnosis and add value to the available RDTs. The web application of the model can serve as a tool to identify the optimal diagnostic algorithm in different epidemiological settings, while taking into account the local epidemiological variables and accuracy of available tests.

Outbreak of acute undifferentiated febrile illness in Kathmandu, Nepal: clinical and epidemiological investigation

Background

Outbreaks of acute undifferentiated febrile illness (AUFI) are common in Nepal, but the exact etiology or risk factors for them often go unrecognized. Diseases like influenza, enteric fever and rickettsial fevers account for majority of such outbreaks. Optimal diagnostic tests to inform treatment decisions are not available at the point-of-care. A proper epidemiological and clinical characterization of such outbreaks is important for appropriate treatment and control efforts.

Methods

An investigation was initiated as a response to increased presentation of patients at Patan Hospital from Chalnakhel locality in Dakchinkali municipality, Kathmandu with AUFI from June 10 to July 1, 2016. Focused group discussion with local inhabitants and the epidemiological curve of febrile patients at local primary health care centre confirmed the outbreak. The household-survey was conducted in the area with questionnaire administered on patients to characterize their illnesses and their medical records were reviewed. A different set of questionnaire was administered on the patients and controls to investigate the association with common risk factors. Water samples were collected and analyzed microbiologically.

Results

Eighty one patients from 137 households suffered from febrile illness within 6 weeks window before the investigation. All the 67 sampled patients with acute fever had a generalized illness without a discernible focus of infection. Only 38% of the patients had received a clinical diagnosis while the rest were treated empirically without a diagnosis. Three patients had blood culture confirmed enteric fever. Forty-two (63%) patients had been administered antibiotics, most commonly, ofloxacin, cefixime or azithromycin with a mean fever clearance time of 4 days. There was no definite association between several risk factors and fever. Fecal contamination was noted in tap water samples.

Conclusion

Based on the pattern of illness, this outbreak was most likely a mixture of self-limiting viral infections and enteric fever. This study shows that even in the absence of a confirmed diagnosis, a detailed characterization of the illness at presentation and the recovery course can suggest the diagnosis and help in formulating appropriate recommendation for treatment and control.

Accounting for aetiology: can regional surveillance data alongside host biomarker-guided antibiotic therapy improve treatment of febrile illness in remote settings?

Background: Across Southeast Asia, declining malaria incidence poses a challenge for healthcare providers, in how best to manage the vast majority of patients with febrile illnesses who have a negative malaria test. In rural regions, where the majority of the population reside, empirical treatment guidelines derived from central urban hospitals are often of limited relevance. In these settings, health workers with limited training deliver care, often without any laboratory diagnostic support. In this paper, we model the impact of point-of-care C-reactive protein testing to inform the decision to prescribe antibiotics and regional surveillance data to inform antibiotic selection, and then simulate the subsequent impact on mortality from febrile illnesses, rooted in the real-world context of rural Savannakhet province, southern Laos. Methods: Our model simulates 100 scenarios with varying quarterly incidence of six key pathogens known to be prevalent in rural Laos. In the simulations, community health workers either prescribe antibiotics in-line with current practice as documented in health facilities in rural Laos, or with the aid of the two interventions. We provide cost-effectiveness estimates for each strategy alone and then for an integrated approach using both interventions. Results: We find that each strategy is predicted to be highly cost-effective, and that the combined approach is predicted to result in the biggest reduction in mortality (averting a predicted 510 deaths per year in rural Savannakhet, a 28% reduction compared to standard practice) and is highly cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of just $66 per disability-adjusted life year averted. Conclusions: Substantial seasonal variation in the predicted optimal empirical antibiotic treatment for febrile illness highlights the benefits of up-to-date information on regional causes of fever. In this modelling analysis, an integrated system incorporating point-of-care host biomarker testing and regional surveillance data appears highly cost-effective, and may warrant piloting in a real-life setting.

Accounting for aetiology: can regional surveillance data alongside host biomarker-guided antibiotic therapy improve treatment of febrile illness in remote settings?

Background: Across Southeast Asia, declining malaria incidence poses a challenge for healthcare providers, in how best to manage the vast majority of patients with febrile illnesses who have a negative malaria test. In rural regions, where the majority of the population reside, empirical treatment guidelines derived from central urban hospitals are often of limited relevance. In these settings, relatively untrained health workers deliver care, often without any laboratory diagnostic support. In this paper, our aim was to model the impact on mortality from febrile illness of using point-of-care C-reactive protein testing to inform the decision to prescribe antibiotics and regional surveillance data to inform antibiotic selection, rooted in the real-world context of rural Savannakhet province, southern Laos. Methods: Our model simulates 100 scenarios with varying quarterly incidence of six key pathogens known to be prevalent in rural Laos. In the simulations, community health workers either prescribe antibiotics in-line with current practice as documented in health facilities in rural Laos, or with the aid of the two interventions. We provide cost-effectiveness estimates for each strategy alone and then for an integrated approach using both interventions. Results: We find that each strategy alone is predicted to be highly cost-effective, and that the combined approach is predicted to result in the biggest reduction in mortality (averting a predicted 510 deaths per year in rural Savannakhet, a 28% reduction compared to standard practice) and is highly cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of just $66 per disability-adjusted life year averted. Conclusions: Substantial seasonal variation in the predicted optimal empirical antibiotic treatment for febrile illness highlights the benefits of up-to-date information on regional causes of fever. In this modelling analysis, an integrated system incorporating point-of-care host biomarker testing and regional surveillance data appears highly cost-effective, and may warrant piloting in a real-life setting.

Febrile illness in Asia: gaps in epidemiology, diagnosis and management for informing health policy

BACKGROUND

Increasing evidence is becoming available on the aetiology and management of fevers in Asia; the importance of these fevers has increased with the decline in the incidence of malaria.

AIMS

To conduct a narrative review of the epidemiology and management of fevers in South and South-East Asia and to highlight gaps in our knowledge that impair evidence-based health policy decisions.

SOURCES

A narrative review of papers published since 2012 on developments in fever epidemiology, diagnosis and treatment in South and South-East Asia. The papers that the authors felt were pivotal, from their personal perspectives, are discussed.

CONTENT

We identified 100 studies. Among the 30 studies (30%)-including both children and adults-that investigated three or more pathogens, the most frequently reported fever aetiology was dengue (reported by 15, 50%), followed by leptospirosis (eight, 27%), scrub typhus (seven, 23%) and Salmonella serovar Typhi (six, 20%). Among four studies investigating three or more pathogens in children, dengue and Staphylococcus aureus were the most frequent, followed by non-typhoidal Salmonella spp, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Salmonella serovar Typhi, and Orientia tsutsugamushi. Increased awareness is needed that rickettsial pathogens are common but do not respond to cephalosporins, and that alternative therapies, such as tetracyclines, are required.

IMPLICATIONS

Many key gaps remain, and consensus guidelines for study design are needed to aid comparative understanding of the epidemiology of fevers. More investment in developing accurate and affordable diagnostic tests for rural Asia and independent evaluation of those already on the market are needed. Treatment algorithms, including simple biomarker assays, appropriate for empirical therapy of fevers in different areas of rural Asia should be a major aim of fever research. Enhanced antimicrobial resistance (AMR) surveillance and openly accessible databases of geography-specific AMR data would inform policy on empirical and specific therapy. More investment in innovative strategies facilitating infectious disease surveillance in remote rural communities would be an important component of poverty reduction and improving public health.

Target Product Profile for a Diagnostic Assay to Differentiate between Bacterial and Non-Bacterial Infections and Reduce Antimicrobial Overuse in Resource-Limited Settings: An Expert Consensus

Acute fever is one of the most common presenting symptoms globally. In order to reduce the empiric use of antimicrobial drugs and improve outcomes, it is essential to improve diagnostic capabilities. In the absence of microbiology facilities in low-income settings, an assay to distinguish bacterial from non-bacterial causes would be a critical first step. To ensure that patient and market needs are met, the requirements of such a test should be specified in a target product profile (TPP). To identify minimal/optimal characteristics for a bacterial vs. non-bacterial fever test, experts from academia and international organizations with expertise in infectious diseases, diagnostic test development, laboratory medicine, global health, and health economics were convened. Proposed TPPs were reviewed by this working group, and consensus characteristics were defined. The working group defined non-severely ill, non-malaria infected children as the target population for the desired assay. To provide access to the most patients, the test should be deployable to community health centers and informal health settings, and staff should require <2 days of training to perform the assay. Further, given that the aim is to reduce inappropriate antimicrobial use as well as to deliver appropriate treatment for patients with bacterial infections, the group agreed on minimal diagnostic performance requirements of >90% and >80% for sensitivity and specificity, respectively. Other key characteristics, to account for the challenging environment at which the test is targeted, included: i) time-to-result <10 min (but maximally <2 hrs); ii) storage conditions at 0–40°C, ≤90% non-condensing humidity with a minimal shelf life of 12 months; iii) operational conditions of 5–40°C, ≤90% non-condensing humidity; and iv) minimal sample collection needs (50–100μL, capillary blood). This expert approach to define assay requirements for a bacterial vs. non-bacterial assay should guide product development, and enable targeted and timely efforts by industry partners and academic institutions.

Modelling the Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Biomarker Tests as Compared with Pathogen-Specific Diagnostics in the Management of Undifferentiated Fever in Remote Tropical Settings

Background

Malaria accounts for a small fraction of febrile cases in increasingly large areas of the malaria endemic world. Point-of-care tests to improve the management of non-malarial fevers appropriate for primary care are few, consisting of either diagnostic tests for specific pathogens or testing for biomarkers of host response that indicate whether antibiotics might be required. The impact and cost-effectiveness of these approaches are relatively unexplored and methods to do so are not well-developed.

Methods

We model the ability of dengue and scrub typhus rapid tests to inform antibiotic treatment, as compared with testing for elevated C-Reactive Protein (CRP), a biomarker of host-inflammation. Using data on causes of fever in rural Laos, we estimate the proportion of outpatients that would be correctly classified as requiring an antibiotic and the likely cost-effectiveness of the approaches.

Results

Use of either pathogen-specific test slightly increased the proportion of patients correctly classified as requiring antibiotics. CRP testing was consistently superior to the pathogen-specific tests, despite heterogeneity in causes of fever. All testing strategies are likely to result in higher average costs, but only the scrub typhus and CRP tests are likely to be cost-effective when considering direct health benefits, with median cost per disability adjusted life year averted of approximately $48 USD and $94 USD, respectively.

Conclusions

Testing for viral infections is unlikely to be cost-effective when considering only direct health benefits to patients. Testing for prevalent bacterial pathogens can be cost-effective, having the benefit of informing not only whether treatment is required, but also as to the most appropriate antibiotic; this advantage, however, varies widely in response to heterogeneity in causes of fever. Testing for biomarkers of host inflammation is likely to be consistently cost-effective despite high heterogeneity, and can also offer substantial reductions in over-use of antimicrobials in viral infections.

Causes of Fever in Rural Southern Laos

The etiology of fever in rural Lao People's Democratic Republic (Laos) has remained obscure until recently owing to the lack of laboratory facilities. We conducted a study to determine the causes of fever among 229 patients without malaria in Savannakhet Province, southern Laos; 52% had evidence of at least one diagnosis (45% with single and 7% with apparent multiple infections). Among patients with only one diagnosis, dengue (30.1%) was the most common, followed by leptospirosis (7.0%), Japanese encephalitis virus infection (3.5%), scrub typhus (2.6%), spotted fever group infection (0.9%), unspecified flavivirus infection (0.9%), and murine typhus (0.4%). We discuss the empirical treatment of fever in relation to these findings.

Causes of non-malarial fever in Laos: a prospective study

Background

Because of reductions in the incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Laos, identification of the causes of fever in people without malaria, and discussion of the best empirical treatment options, are urgently needed. We aimed to identify the causes of non-malarial acute fever in patients in rural Laos.

Methods

For this prospective study, we recruited 1938 febrile patients, between May, 2008, and December, 2010, at Luang Namtha provincial hospital in northwest Laos (n=1390), and between September, 2008, and December, 2010, at Salavan provincial hospital in southern Laos (n=548). Eligible participants were aged 5–49 years with fever (≥38°C) lasting 8 days or less and were eligible for malaria testing by national guidelines.

Findings

With conservative definitions of cause, we assigned 799 (41%) patients a diagnosis. With exclusion of influenza, the top five diagnoses when only one aetiological agent per patient was identified were dengue (156 [8%] of 1927 patients), scrub typhus (122 [7%] of 1871), Japanese encephalitis virus (112 [6%] of 1924), leptospirosis (109 [6%] of 1934), and bacteraemia (43 [2%] of 1938). 115 (32%) of 358 patients at Luang Namtha hospital tested influenza PCR-positive between June and December, 2010, of which influenza B was the most frequently detected strain (n=121 [87%]). Disease frequency differed significantly between the two sites: Japanese encephalitis virus infection (p=0·04), typhoid (p=0·006), and leptospirosis (p=0·001) were more common at Luang Namtha, whereas dengue and malaria were more common at Salavan (all p<0·0001). With use of evidence from southeast Asia when possible, we estimated that azithromycin, doxycycline, ceftriaxone, and ofloxacin would have had significant efficacy for 258 (13%), 240 (12%), 154 (8%), and 41 (2%) of patients, respectively.

Interpretation

Our findings suggest that a wide range of treatable or preventable pathogens are implicated in non-malarial febrile illness in Laos. Empirical treatment with doxycycline for patients with undifferentiated fever and negative rapid diagnostic tests for malaria and dengue could be an appropriate strategy for rural health workers in Laos.

Funding

Wellcome Trust, WHO–Western Pacific Region, Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Cultural drivers and health-seeking behaviours that impact on the transmission of pig-associated zoonoses in Lao People's Democratic Republic

Pig rearing is an important income source in the Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR), with many smallholder farmers using traditional free-range pig production systems. Despite the potentially significant health risks posed by pig production regarding pig-associated zoonoses, information on the sociocultural drivers of these zoonoses is significantly lacking. This review summarises the existing sociocultural knowledge on eight pig-associated zoonoses suspected to be endemic in Southeast Asia: brucellosis, Q fever (Coxiella burnetii), trichinellosis, hepatitis E virus, leptospirosis, Japanese encephalitis, Streptococcus suis and Taenia solium taeniasis-cysticercosis. It summarises current knowledge on these diseases grouped according to their clinical manifestations in humans to highlight the propensity for underreporting. A literature search was conducted across multiple databases for publications from 1990 to the present day related to the eight pig-associated zoonoses and the risk and impact connected with them, with Lao PDR as a case study. Many of these pig-associated zoonoses have similar presentations and are often diagnosed as clinical syndromes. Misdiagnosis and underreporting are, therefore, substantial and emphasise the need for more robust diagnostics and appropriate surveillance systems. While some reports exist in other countries in the region, information is significantly lacking in Lao PDR with existing information coming mainly from the capital, Vientiane. The disease burden imposed by these zoonoses is not only characterised by morbidity and mortality, but directly impacts on livelihoods through income reduction and production losses, and indirectly through treatment costs and lost work opportunities. Other factors crucial to understanding and controlling these diseases are the influence of ethnicity and culture on food-consumption practices, pig rearing and slaughter practices, hygiene and sanitation, health-seeking behaviours and, therefore, risk factors for disease transmission. Published information on the knowledge, attitudes and beliefs of people regarding pig zoonoses and their risk factors is also extremely limited in Lao PDR and the broader Southeast Asian region. The need for more transdisciplinary research, using a One Health approach, in order to understand the underlining social determinants of health and their impacts on health-seeking behaviours, disease transmission and, ultimately, disease reporting, cannot be more emphasized.