Modelling the arrival of invasive organisms via the international marine shipping network: a Khapra beetle study

Assessing and managing the risk of Aedes mosquito introductions via the global maritime trade network

The global shipping network (GSN) has been suggested as a pathway for the establishment and reintroduction of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus primarily via the tire trade. We used historical maritime movement data in combination with an agent-based model to understand invasion risk in the United States Gulf Coast and how the risk of these invasions could be reduced. We found a strong correlation between the total number of cargo ship arrivals at each port and likelihood of arrival by both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Additionally, in 2012, 99.2% of the arrivals into target ports had most recently visited ports likely occupied by both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, increasing risk of Aedes invasion. Our model results indicated that detection and removal of mosquitoes from containers when they are unloaded effectively reduced the probability of mosquito populations establishment even when the connectivity of ports increased. To reduce the risk of invasion and reintroduction of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, surveillance and control efforts should be employed when containers leave high risk locations and when they arrive in ports at high risk of establishment.

Direct competition and potential displacement involving managed Trogoderma stored product pests

The establishment of an exotic pest may require displacing local species with a similar niche. The potential of Trogoderma granarium to displace Trogoderma inclusum was explored in a stored product setting. We performed direct competition experiments varying commodity and temperature over different durations. At nine weeks T. inclusum outproduced T. granarium on all commodities at any temperature. However the proportion of T. granarium versus T. inclusum was greater at 32 °C compared to 25 °C. The nine-week production of T. granarium was best on wheat, while rice was optimal for T. inclusum. After 25 weeks, when adults were used at the start of competition, T. inclusum maintained an advantage in the direct competition. If larvae were used to initiate the competition for 25 weeks, the two species coexisted well at 25 °C, but T. granarium nearly excluded T. inclusum at 32 °C. Thus T. inclusum performs better in competition over shorter intervals when resources are plentiful, but T. granarium can be more successful over longer time periods, particularly when late instar larvae are involved. The finding suggests a real threat of introductions of T. granarium larvae to establish populations within grain storage infrastructure where T. inclusum is common.

Cytotoxicity and Genotoxicity Evaluation of Some Stored Grain Insects and Their Infested Flour Using the BHK-21 Cell Line in an In Vitro Experimental Model

Globally, stored grain is vulnerable to pest infestation, resulting in significant economic losses for some crops. Wheat is one of the most important crops in the world. Many sucking, piercing insects infect wheat in the form of grains or flour and may produce toxic residues that are harmful to human health. The current study aimed to estimate the safe use of four stored grain insects by evaluating the potential genotoxic effects and cytotoxicity of crushed insects (T. granarium, S. oryzae, R. dominica, and T. castaneum) and their flour residues. MTT and comet assays were conducted to assess the effects of six concentrations of insect flour residues (0, 6.5, 12.5, 25, 50, and 100%) on the baby hamster kidney cell line (BHK-21). The lowest BHK-21 cell viability was noted against T. granarium (LC50% 36.42 μg/ml) followed by T. castaneum flour (LC50% 46.73 μg/ml) compared to the control (LC50% 808.2 μg/ml). Significantly high DNA comet (%) was observed in the treatments of T. castaneum flour (18.8%), S. oryzae wheat (15.6%), T. granarium (15.4%), T. castaneum (13.6%), and T. granarium wheat (13.1%). FTIR spectra of stored grain insects and their flour residues identified various functional metabolite groups, including alkynes and phenols, which could enhance cell apoptosis and genotoxicity. T. granarium, T. castaneum, and their flour residues had the highest cytotoxic and genotoxic effects on the BHK-21 cell line. The current study concludes that insect residues in flour may have cytotoxic and genotoxic effects on living cells, potentially affecting public health, particularly after consuming T. granarium and T. castaneum-infested flour. Therefore, good storage of stored grains and their products is recommended.

Modelling the likelihood of entry of marine non-indigenous species from internationally arriving vessels to maritime ports: a case study using New Zealand data

The establishment of marine non-indigenous species (NIS) in new locations can degrade environmental, socio-cultural, and economic values. Vessels arriving from international waters are the main pathway for the entry of marine NIS, via exposure due to ballast water discharge (hereafter, ballast discharge) and biofouling. We developed a systematic statistical likelihood-based methodology to investigate port-level marine NIS propagule pressure from ballast discharge and biofouling exposure using a combination of techniques, namely k-Nearest-Neighbour and random forest algorithms. Vessel characteristics and travel patterns were assessed as candidate predictors. For the ballast discharge analysis, the predictors used for model building were vessel type, dead weight tonnage, and the port of first arrival; the predictors used for the biofouling analysis were days since last antifouling paint, mean vessel speed, dead weight tonnage, and hull niche area. Propagule pressure for both pathways was calculated at a voyage, port and annual level, which were used to establish the relative entry score for each port. The model was applied to a case study for New Zealand. Biosecurity New Zealand has commissioned targeted marine surveillance at selected ports since 2002 to enable early detection of newly arrived marine NIS (Marine High-Risk Site Surveillance, MHRSS). The reported methodology was used to compare contemporary entry likelihoods between New Zealand ports. The results suggested that Tauranga now receives the highest volume of discharged ballast water and has the second most biofouling exposure compared to all other New Zealand ports. Auckland was predicted to receive the highest biofouling mass and was ranked tenth for ballast discharge exposure. Lyttelton, Napier, and New Plymouth also had a high relative ranking for these two pathways. The outputs from this study will inform the refinement of the MHRSS programme, facilitating continued early detection and cost-effective management to support New Zealand’s wider marine biosecurity system. More generally, this paper develops an approach for using statistical models to estimate relative likelihoods of entry of marine NIS.

Comparative Population Growth of the Khapra Beetle (Coleoptera: Dermestidae) and the Warehouse Beetle (Coleoptera: Dermestidae) on Wheat and Rice

We evaluated the relative population growth of two stored-product insect species in the genus Trogoderma, the khapra beetle, Trogoderma granarium Everts (Coleoptera: Dermestidae), and the warehouse beetle, Trogoderma variabile Ballion (Coleoptera: Dermestidae). Ten adults of each species were placed in vials containing wheat or paddy rice. These tests were performed at 27 and 32°C and the number of adults in the vials were counted after 35 and 70 days. For all the time intervals and temperatures of both species on wheat, the resulting larval abundances were similar, with the exception of 27°C at 70 days where more T. variabile larvae developed. At the higher temperature, both species had similar population growth on rice. However, the success was mixed at 27°C with T. granarium having a greater abundance after 35 days, while T. variabile dominated after 70 days. Frass production in both commodities was usually similar for the two species, but greater frass production occurred by T. variabile on wheat after 70 days at 27°C, while T. granarium produced more frass on rice after 35 days at 32°C. Both species nearly always caused equivalent commodity damage. Our research suggests that under ideal conditions these two closely, but very differently treated species in commerce from the genus Trogoderma have comparable population growth, and cause similar damage on wheat and rice.

Mathematical Modeling of Population Dynamics of Trogoderma granarium (Coleoptera: Dermistidae)

Khapra beetle, Trogoderma granarium Everts, is one of the economically important quarantine pests that mainly feeds on food grain and proteinaceous materials. Its total development time lasts approximately 40-45 d under favorable environmental conditions. Extreme temperatures, high relative humidity (RH), high larval densities, or low food quality can induce a larval diapause, where the insect can survive for up to a few years, occasionally feeding and molting. Ecological modeling is a helpful tool to study the population dynamics of biological systems. Physi-Biological age method is based on temperature-driven development rate, and factors such as RH and food quality were considered as multipliers. The objective of this study was to develop mathematical models to calculate the survival and development of adults, eggs, larvae, pupae, and oviposition and diapause under different environmental conditions such as temperature, RH, and food quality. Algorithms were developed to simulate the population dynamics for each day and coded in C++. The developed models were validated against the literature data and evaluated using linear regression, R2, and MSE. Population dynamics were simulated under Canadian grain storage conditions, and the developed models predicted that the diapausing larvae survived the extremely cold conditions found in Canadian grain. In contrast, other stages did not survive. The surviving larvae developed to pupae and adults, and females began laying eggs once the temperature became warmer in the grain bins.

A LAMP (loop-mediated isothermal amplification) test for rapid identification of Khapra beetle (Trogoderma granarium)

BACKGROUND

Khapra beetle (Trogoderma granarium Everts) is a significant pest of food products around the world, causing great losses of stored grain and produce, with export restrictions imposed on countries with established beetle populations. Khapra beetle is a high-priority exotic invertebrate pest in many countries requiring a rapid quarantine/biosecurity response when incursions occur. To address this, we developed a novel Khapra LAMP (loop-mediated isothermal amplification) assay using a portable real-time fluorometer and an additional 18S ribosomal DNA (18S) insect control LAMP assay for confirmation of the presence of insect DNA. Both LAMP tests can be performed either in a portable real-time fluorometer or using simple, visual colorimetric technique.

RESULTS

Both the Khapra and 18S LAMP tests amplify positive samples within ≤ 25 min, with an anneal derivative temperature of 77.7 ± 0.7 °C for Khapra LAMP test and 88.0 ± 1.0 °C for 18S. The new Khapra LAMP assay is sensitive to very low levels of DNA (1.02 × 10^-6  ng μL^-1 ). Additionally, we developed a gBlock double stranded DNA fragment for use as positive Khapra control with a different anneal derivative of 80 °C. Both assays are simple to use in the field and are capable of amplifying DNA from target beetles, even when samples are partially degraded which is typically found during surveillance activities. By screening a broad panel of Dermestidae species we demonstrate that our new assay is species-specific, with no detections of false positives. Also, we evaluated multiple DNA extraction methods, with both QuickExtract and HotSHOT extraction methods proving suitable for in-field use.

CONCLUSION

The novel Khapra and 18S LAMP assays should improve speed, accuracy and confidence of detection of Khapra beetle at incursion points and aid rapid biosecurity responses in any country affected, especially as the assays described here are portable and easy to implement in the field conditions where resources are limited. © 2021 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Bioassays and Methodologies for Insecticide Tests with Larvae of Trogoderma granarium (Everts), the Khapra Beetle

New insecticide treatment options would be beneficial for control programs for Trogoderma granarium Everts, the khapra beetle, in the United States. Two insecticides were evaluated, the Polyzone® formulation of deltamethrin and a formulation of the insect growth regulator methoprene combined with deltamethrin and the synergist piperonyl butoxide. In the test with Polyzone® deltamethrin, concrete arenas were treated with a low and high rate, and held outside, inside a shed, or inside a lab. Compared to storage in the lab, residue degradation increased slightly in the shed, and then further outside, as evidenced by greater larval survival and adult emergence. Across all environmental treatments, the high rate was more effective than the lower rate. For the combination methoprene product, the effect of food contact with treated surfaces was examined. When treating arenas with food and transferring the food to clean dishes, there was no immediate effect on larval survival, but there was a reduction in survival and emergence to the adult stage after one month. For both tests, larvae apparently often went into diapause after they were introduced onto the treatment arenas. Both treatments could be utilized in management programs if T. granarium infestations are detected.

Modeling the potential range expansion of larger grain borer, Prostephanus truncatus (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae)

Prostephanus truncatus (Horn) (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae), is a beetle that is a member of a family that is primarily comprised of wood-boring insects, including forest insect pests. It is native to Mexico and Central America, where it has adapted to become a pest of stored maize. It was accidentally introduced into Africa in late 1970s, where it quickly spread throughout the sub-Saharan region, perhaps aided by adaptation to alternate hosts and the ability to persist in non-agricultural habitats. We used the correlative modelling algorithm, MaxEnt, to identify global areas of potential high suitability based on the climate locations with documented populations. Predictions using a model trained in Mexico + Central America showed potential high climatic suitability extending north into the southern United States and southward into South America, including parts of Argentina, but predictions using a model built from African occurrences did not include those areas as highly suitable. However, there was general agreement in both models that large areas of the tropics in the Western Hemisphere and in Asia have climatic conditions that could support P. truncatus if it were to become established. The models also showed consistency in capturing potential suitability at sites not used to build a given model. Results can be used as an initial guide to establish surveillance programs to monitor for this insect in high risk areas where it is not currently found, and to proactively mitigate the biosecurity risk from P. truncatus.

Non-native species spread in a complex network: the interaction of global transport and local population dynamics determines invasion success

The number of released individuals, which is a component of propagule pressure, is considered to be a major driver for the establishment success of non-native species. However, propagule pressure is often assumed to result from single or few release events, which does not necessarily apply to the frequent releases of invertebrates or other taxa through global transport. For instance, the high intensity of global shipping may result in frequent releases of large numbers of individuals, and the complexity of shipping dynamics impedes predictions of invasion dynamics. Here, we present a mathematical model for the spread of planktonic organisms by global shipping, using the history of movements by 33 566 ships among 1477 ports to simulate population dynamics for the comb jelly Mnemiopsis leidyi as a case study. The degree of propagule pressure at one site resulted from the coincident arrival of individuals from other sites with native or non-native populations. Key to sequential spread in European waters was a readily available source of propagules and a suitable recipient environment. These propagules were derived from previously introduced 'bridgehead' populations supplemented with those from native sources. Invasion success is therefore determined by the complex interaction of global shipping and local population dynamics. The general findings probably hold true for the spread of species in other complex systems, such as insects or plant seeds exchanged via commercial trade or transport.

Biology and Control of the Khapra Beetle, Trogoderma granarium, a Major Quarantine Threat to Global Food Security

The khapra beetle, Trogoderma granarium, is a voracious feeder of stored products and is considered one of the most important quarantine pests globally. Its ability to survive for long periods under extreme conditions facilitates its spread through international commerce, which has led to invasions of new geographic regions. The khapra beetle is an important quarantine pest for many countries, including the major wheat-producing countries the United States, Canada, Russia, and Australia, and has been classified as one of the 100 worst invasive species worldwide. This species cannot always be controlled by insecticides and other nonchemical methods that are usually effective against other pests of stored products, particularly owing to its diapausing late larval stage. It can rapidly develop at elevated temperatures and under dry conditions, which are not favorable for many major stored-product insects. We synthesize key published work to draw attention to advances in biology, detection and control of the khapra beetle, and directions to consider for future research.

Risk factors for fouling biomass: evidence from small vessels in Australia

Invasive non-indigenous species (NIS) are a threat to marine biodiversity and marine reliant industries. Recreational vessels are recognised as an important vector of NIS translocation, particularly domestically. This paper reports on a novel application of multilevel modelling and multiple imputation in order to quantify the relationship between biofouling biomass (wet weight) and the vessel-level characteristics of recreational and fishing vessels. It was found that the number of days since the vessel was last cleaned strongly related to the biofouling biomass, yet differed dependent on vessel type. Similarly, the median number of trips undertaken was related to the biofouling biomass, and varied according to the type of antifouling paint (AF) used. No relationship was found between vessel size and biofouling biomass per sample unit. To reduce the spread of NIS, vessel owners should use an AF paint suitable to their vessel's operational profile, and follow a maintenance schedule according to the paint manufacturer's specifications.

Development of a pathway model to assess the exposure of European pine trees to pine wood nematode via the trade of wood

Pine wood nematode (PWN), Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, is a threat for pine species (Pinus spp.) throughout the world. The nematode is native to North America, and invaded Japan, China, Korea, and Taiwan, and more recently Portugal and Spain. PWN enters new areas through trade in wood products. Once established, eradication is not practically feasible. Therefore, preventing entry of PWN into new areas is crucial. Entry risk analysis can assist in targeting management to reduce the probability of entry. Assessing the entry of PWN is challenging due to the complexity of the wood trade and the wood processing chain. In this paper, we develop a pathway model that describes the wood trade and wood processing chain to determine the structure of the entry process. We consider entry of PWN through imported coniferous wood from China, a possible origin of Portuguese populations, to Europe. We show that exposure increased over years due to an increase in imports of sawn wood. From 2000 to 2012, Europe received an estimated 84 PWN propagules from China, 88% of which arose from imported sawn wood and 12% from round wood. The region in Portugal where the PWN was first reported is among those with the highest PWN transfer per unit of imported wood due to a high host cover and vector activity. An estimated 62% of PWN is expected to enter in countries where PWN is not expected to cause the wilt of pine trees because of low summer temperatures (e.g., Belgium, Sweden, Norway). In these countries, PWN is not easily detected, and such countries can thus serve as potential reservoirs of PWN. The model identifies ports and regions with high exposure, which helps targeting monitoring and surveillance, even in areas where wilt disease is not expected to occur. In addition, we show that exposure is most efficiently reduced by additional treatments in the country of origin, and/or import wood from PWN-free zones. Pathway modelling assists plant health managers in analyzing risks along the pathway and planning measures for enhancing biosecurity.

Invader Competition with Local Competitors: Displacement or Coexistence among the Invasive Khapra Beetle, Trogoderma granarium Everts (Coleoptera: Dermestidae), and Two Other Major Stored-Grain Beetles?

Local potential competitor species are important determinants of the invasibility of an environment even when widely recognized invasive species are concerned since it may compromise its establishment. Thus, the outcome of the direct competition among the invasive khapra beetle, Trogoderma granarium, and the cosmopolitan species lesser grain borer, Rhyzopertha dominica and rice weevil, Sitophilus oryzae, and thus the likelihood of establishment of T. granarium under their co-occurrence, was here explored in paddy rice and wheat, at temperatures between 25 and 35°C and through 200 days of storage. Insect infestations were higher in wheat rather than in paddy rice. Trogoderma granarium was unable to displace any of the competing species under two and three-species competition experiments retaining lower adult population than both local competitors at the lowest temperature level. Rhyzopertha dominica prevailed in paddy rice, while S. oryzae prevailed in wheat. Paradoxically, T. granarium adults retained low population growth but contributed more for the total frass production and grain loss, much more than that recorded for R. dominica. Nonetheless, T. granarium larvae exhibited high population numbers 130 days after the introduction of the parental individuals. At higher temperature levels (30 and 35°C) the numbers of T. granarium larvae were extremely high even after 65 days, while the numbers of the other two species rapidly declined. Interestingly, the simultaneous presence of R. dominica and S. oryzae was beneficial for the population growth of T. granarium. Consequently, T. granarium has the ability to outperform other primary stored-product insects at high temperatures, while its presence at low temperatures remains for long periods apparently unaffected by other co-occurring species. Hence, T. granarium, in wheat, is able to outcompete other major species of stored-product insects at elevated temperatures, while at 25°C this species can maintain low numbers of individuals for long periods, which can rapidly produce population outbursts when the prevailing conditions are suitable for its development.

Predicting the spread of marine species introduced by global shipping

The human-mediated translocation of species poses a distinct threat to nature, human health, and economy. Although existing models calculate the invasion probability of any species, frameworks for species-specific forecasts are still missing. Here, we developed a model approach using global ship movements and environmental conditions to simulate the successive global spread of marine alien species that allows predicting the identity of those species likely to arrive next in a given habitat. In a first step, we simulated the historical stepping-stone spreading dynamics of 40 marine alien species and compared predicted and observed alien species ranges. With an accuracy of 77%, the model correctly predicted the presence/absence of an alien species in an ecoregion. Spreading dynamics followed a common pattern with an initial invasion of most suitable habitats worldwide and a subsequent spread into neighboring habitats. In a second step, we used the reported distribution of 97 marine algal species with a known invasion history, and six species causing harmful algal blooms, to determine the ecoregions most likely to be invaded next under climate warming. Cluster analysis revealed that species can be classified according to three characteristic spreading profiles: emerging species, high-risk species, and widespread species. For the North Sea, the model predictions could be confirmed because two of the predicted high-risk species have recently invaded the North Sea. This study highlights that even simple models considering only shipping intensities and habitat matches are able to correctly predict the identity of the next invading marine species.

The role of global trade and transport network topology in the human-mediated dispersal of alien species

More people and goods are moving further and more frequently via many different trade and transport networks under current trends of globalisation. These networks can play a major role in the unintended introduction of exotic species to new locations. With the continuing rise in global trade, more research attention is being focused on the role of networks in the spread of invasive species. This represents an emerging field of research in invasion science and the substantial knowledge being generated within other disciplines can provide ecologists with new tools with which to study invasions. For the first time, we synthesise studies from several perspectives, approaches and disciplines to derive the fundamental characteristics of network topology determining the likelihood of spread of organisms via trade and transport networks. These characteristics can be used to identify critical points of vulnerability within these networks and enable the development of more effective strategies to prevent invasions.

Using a network model to assess risk of forest pest spread via recreational travel

Long-distance dispersal pathways, which frequently relate to human activities, facilitate the spread of alien species. One pathway of concern in North America is the possible spread of forest pests in firewood carried by visitors to campgrounds or recreational facilities. We present a network model depicting the movement of campers and, by extension, potentially infested firewood. We constructed the model from US National Recreation Reservation Service data documenting more than seven million visitor reservations (including visitors from Canada) at campgrounds nationwide. This bi-directional model can be used to identify likely origin and destination locations for a camper-transported pest. To support broad-scale decision making, we used the model to generate summary maps for 48 US states and seven Canadian provinces that depict the most likely origins of campers traveling from outside the target state or province. The maps generally showed one of two basic spatial patterns of out-of-state (or out-of-province) origin risk. In the eastern United States, the riskiest out-of-state origin locations were usually found in a localized region restricted to portions of adjacent states. In the western United States, the riskiest out-of-state origin locations were typically associated with major urban areas located far from the state of interest. A few states and the Canadian provinces showed characteristics of both patterns. These model outputs can guide deployment of resources for surveillance, firewood inspections, or other activities. Significantly, the contrasting map patterns indicate that no single response strategy is appropriate for all states and provinces. If most out-of-state campers are traveling from distant areas, it may be effective to deploy resources at key points along major roads (e.g., interstate highways), since these locations could effectively represent bottlenecks of camper movement. If most campers are from nearby areas, they may have many feasible travel routes, so a more widely distributed deployment may be necessary.