Predictors of change in CD4 lymphocyte count and weight among HIV infected patients on anti-retroviral treatment in Ethiopia: a retrospective longitudinal study

Clinical Implications of Anemia Among Eastern Sudanese HIV Survivors

Background In HIV patients, anemia is the most common hematopoietic consequence, and it has a major influence on life satisfaction, morbidity, and survival. The epidemiology of anemia in this cohort in Sudan, however, is poorly characterized. Aim This study aims to assess the prevalence of anemia and its implications among HIV-positive patients. Methods An observational case-control study was administered in 44 clinical HIV-positive cases at the Sudan National AIDS Program (SNAP), Red Sea State, Sudan, between January 2018 and December 2019. A total of 44 HIV-negative subjects as controls were enrolled. HIV-infected patients' demographic and clinical data, involving anemia and its outcome, were examined. WHO threshold was used to rank the clinical course of anemia in these patients. Results Of the 44 HIV patients examined, the mean age was 33.0 ± 11.2 years. Thirty (68.1%) were males, and 14 (29.8%) were females. The overall prevalence of anemia was 63.6% (95% CI 57.8-69.94%): mild grades of anemia at 25% (95% CI 14.4-34.4%), moderate grades of anemia at 36.4% (95% CI 28.7-43.2%), and severe anemia at 2.3% (95% CI 1.3-3.3%). In this study, 18 (64.3%) anemic patients showed normocytic thin smear pictures, among whom 44.3% were males and 20.5% were females. Microcytic anemia was seen in 17.8% of patients, while autoimmune hemolytic anemia was also detected in 17.8% of patients. The prevalence of anemia increased significantly with decreasing total lymphocyte count (TLC): 6.8% and 13.6% among patients with TLCs <1,000 and 1,000-4,800 cells/mm3, respectively (P = 0.016). Male sex was significantly associated with increased odds of anemia (OR 1.90, P = 0.049). Conclusion Anemia is a public comorbidity among HIV patients in the east of Sudan. Normocytosis is the most prominent form of anemia related to hypoproliferation in eastern Sudan, an event that can be triggered either by HIV chronicity or its combination with nutritional inadequacies. To prevent anemia progression and promote quality lifestyles, timely screening and appropriate therapy for anemia are critical, particularly for those with a low TLC.

Blood pressure changes during tenofovir-based antiretroviral therapy among people living with HIV in Lilongwe, Malawi: results from the prospective LighTen Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the regions in the world with the highest numbers of uncontrolled hypertension as well as people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV). However, the association between hypertension and antiretroviral therapy is controversial.

METHODS

Participant demographics, medical history, laboratory values, WHO clinical stage, current medication, and anthropometric data were recorded at study entry and during study visits at 1, 3, 6 months, and every 6 months thereafter until month 36. Patients who stopped or changed their antiretroviral therapy (tenofovir, lamivudine, efavirenz) were censored on that day. Office blood pressure (BP) was categorized using ≥ 2 measurements on ≥ 2 occasions during the first three visits. Factors associated with systolic and mean BP were analyzed using bivariable and multivariable multilevel linear regression.

RESULTS

1,288 PLHIV (751 females, 58.3%) could be included and 832 completed the 36 months of observation. Weight gain and a higher BP level at study entry were associated with an increase in BP (p < 0.001), while female sex (p < 0.001), lower body weight at study entry (p < 0.001), and high glomerular filtration rate (p = 0.009) protected against a rise in BP. The rate of uncontrolled BP remained high (73.9% vs. 72.1%) and despite indication treatment, adjustments were realized in a minority of cases (13%).

CONCLUSION

Adherence to antihypertensive treatment and weight control should be addressed in patient education programs at centers caring for PLHIV in low-resources settings like Malawi. Together with intensified training of medical staff to overcome provider inertia, improved control rates of hypertension might eventually be achieved.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT02381275.

Predictors of underweight among adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in Bishoftu general hospital, central Ethiopia: Case-control study

BACKGROUND

Underweight affects the overall clinical outcome and quality of life and increases the risk of mortalities in Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) patients. Though studies have examined the various determinants of being underweight in people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV), scanty evidence exists about the influence of dietary diversity scores and dietary counseling on underweight HIV patients in Ethiopia. This study aimed to identify the determinants of being underweight among adult patients receiving antiretroviral therapy at Bishoftu General Hospital, central Ethiopia.

METHODS

An institution-based unmatched case-control study was conducted among 279 participants (93 cases and 186 controls) from April to May 2022. Cases were selected consecutively as they occur, and then two subsequent controls that visited the antiretroviral therapy(ART) clinic were interviewed until the sample size was attained. Data were collected using a pretested structured questionnaire and involved patient interviews and chart review. Bivariate and Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify determinants of underweight. The presence of statistically significant association was declared with p-value <0.05, and a 95% confidence interval was used to show the precision in the measure of the strength of association.

RESULTS

The response rate of participants was 91.2% for each of the cases and controls. Monthly income of patients ≤2000 birr (AOR = 6.63, 95% CI: 2.96-14.85), absence of support giver (AOR = 3.22, 95% CI: 1.38-7.50), being having an eating problem (AOR = 14.48, 95% CI: 5.06-41.40), dietary diversity score of four to five (AOR = 2.36, 95% CI: 1.92, 6.08), not getting dietary counseling support and advice (AOR = 2.53, 95% CI: 1.11, 5.72) and chewing khat (AOR = 3.36, 95% CI: 1.99,11.33) were determinants of underweight in adult HIV patients.

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed that household dietary diversity, counseling and education on nutrition, monthly income, eating problems, support giver, and khat chewing were predictors of being underweight in HIV patients. This inquires an integrated nutritional intervention including income-generating activities, counseling and education on nutrition and bad habits, and regular monitoring of the nutritional status during clinic visits.

Modeling Survival Time to Death Among TB and HIV Co-infected Adult Patients: an Institution-Based Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is a serious health threat, particularly for people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and HIV-positive people are more likely than others to contract the disease. Globally, tuberculosis (TB) is one of the leading causes of death among people living with HIV. The purpose of the current study was to identify factors associated with survival rates of TB/HIV co-infected patients using survival models.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted on TB/HIV co-infected adult patients registered and under follow-up at Tepi General Hospital (TGH) and Mizan-Tepi University Teaching Hospital (MTUTH), southwest Ethiopia. All TB/HIV co-infection patients who were registered and under follow-up from 1st January 2015 through 1st January 2020 were considered. The global Schoenfeld test was used to test the proportional hazard (PH) assumption. Various accelerated failure time (AFT) models were compared to determine the best model for the time to death of TB/HIV co-infected patients' data set. Among the most commonly used accelerated failure time models (AFT models), the study used exponential, Weibull, log-logistic, and log-lognormal AFT models. AIC and BIC were used to compare the performance of fitted models. The data were analyzed with the statistical software R.

RESULTS

Of 363 TB/HIV co-infected patients followed for 60 months, 79 (21.8%) died, while the remaining 284 (78.2%) were censored. The overall median survival time was 15.6 months. The proportional hazard assumption was checked and it was violated. In comparison to other models, the lognormal AFT model performed better. The results of the multivariable lognormal AFT model showed that age, residence, substance use, educational status, clinical stages of the disease, cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4 count/mm³), functional status, cotrimoxazole prophylactic therapy use (CPT use), and INH were all found to be significant factors, while gender, illness other than TB, and disclosure of status were insignificant variables at 5% level of significance.

CONCLUSION

Current study results revealed that older age, substance use, advanced WHO clinical stages of the disease (stage IV), bedridden functional status, and CD4 less than 200 count/mm³ were significantly associated with shorter survival time to death of HIV/TB co-infected patients while having advanced educational status, being from urban residence, CPT use, and INH significantly increase the survival time to death of TB/HIV co-infected patients. Patients with TB/HIV co-infection should be given special attention based on these important factors to improve their health and prolong their lives. HIV-positive patients are more likely than others to contract the TB disease. The risk of death among TB/HIV co-infected patients was found to be high. Out of all patients, 79 (21.8%) died. Accelerated failure time models are good alternatives for scenario Cox proportional hazard assumptions not met.

Body mass index, proteinuria and total lymphocyte counts in predicting treatment responses among ART naïve individuals with HIV initiated on antiretroviral treatment in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, 2019: a cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To explore the potential use of body mass index (BMI), proteinuria and total lymphocyte count changes in predicting immunological and virological response in individuals with HIV initiated on antiretroviral treatment (ART).

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Three urban HIV care and treatment centres in Dar es Salaam.

PARTICIPANTS

Individuals with HIV initiating ART.

OUTCOME MEASURES

HIV viral load ≥1000 copies/mL (viral non-suppression) at 6 months after ART initiation.

RESULTS

Of 215 (out of 220 enrolled) participants who returned for evaluation at 6 months, 147 (66.8%) were women. At 6 months of follow-up, 89.4% (76/85) of participants with sustained weight gain were virally suppressed compared with 31.8% (7/22) with sustained loss, p<0.001. In participants who were lymphopaenic at baseline, an increase to normal total lymphocyte counts at 6 months was associated with an increase in CD4 count compared with participants who remained lymphopaenic, 96.2% (50/52) versus 54.8% (17/31), p<0.001. At baseline, 50.0% (110/220) had proteinuria. In participants without proteinuria from baseline to 6 months, 89.8% (79/88) were virally suppressed compared with participants with proteinuria at baseline and/or 3 months, 85.6% (77/90), those with persistent proteinuria, 30.8% (8/26), and proteinuria at 6 months only, 45.5% (5/11), p<0.001. In modified Poisson regression, the independent predictors other than CD4 cell counts for viral non-suppression at 6 months among individuals with HIV initiating on ART were BMI loss >5% from baseline to 6 months (adjusted RR 2.73, 95% CI (1.36 to 5.47)), lymphopaenia at 6 months (adjusted RR=4.54, 95% CI (2.19 to 9.39)) and proteinuria at 6 months (adjusted RR=2.63, 95% CI (1.25 to 5.54)).

CONCLUSIONS

Change in BMI, total lymphocyte count and presence of proteinuria can monitor and predict ART response and may be particularly helpful in settings when CD4 counts and viral load monitoring are unavailable.

Weight change after antiretroviral therapy initiation among adults living with HIV in Northwest Ethiopia: a longitudinal data analysis

OBJECTIVES

The first objective was to explore weight change in the first 2 years after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in adults living with HIV. The second objective was to identify the predictors of weight change over time among adults living with HIV on ART.

DESIGN

An institution-based retrospective longitudinal study was conducted.

SETTING

The study was conducted at Debre Markos Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia.

PARTICIPANTS

The study included 848 randomly selected medical charts of adults living with HIV receiving ART between June 2014 and June 2020.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES

The primary outcome was weight change in the first 2 years after ART initiation. The secondary outcome was to identify predictors of weight change. Association between predictor variables and weight change was assessed using an LMM. Variables with p values <0.05 in the final model were considered as statistically significant predictors of weight change.

RESULTS

Of 844 study participants, more than half (n=499; 58.8%) were female. Participants' mean weight increased from 54.2 kg (SD ±9.6 kg) at baseline to 59.5 kg (SD ±10.7 kg) at the end of follow-up. Duration of time on ART, sex, WHO clinical disease staging, functional status, nutritional status and presence of opportunistic infections were significant predictors of weight change at ART initiation. Significant interaction effects were observed between time and sex, WHO clinical disease staging, functional status, isoniazid preventive therapy and nutritional status.

CONCLUSION

We found a linear increment of weight over 24 months of follow-up. Rate of weight gain over time was lower in patients with advanced disease stage and working functional status, whereas weight gain rate was higher in male and underweight patients.

Statistical Analysis on Determinant Factors Associated with Time to Death of HIV/TB Co-Infected Patients Under HAART at Debre Tabor Referral Hospital: An Application of Accelerated Failure Time-Shared Frailty Models

Background

Human immune virus/tuberculosis co-infection in one's immune system potentiates each other and hastening the weakening of the host's immunological capabilities while growing active TB, which will increase susceptibility to primary contamination, re-contamination, and/or reactivation for sufferers with latent TB. The goal of this study was to identify determinant factors associated with the survival time to death of HIV/TB co-infected adult patients under HAART at Debre Tabor referral hospital.

Methods

A retrospective follow-up analysis was undertaken for 243 HIV/TB co-infected patients who were receiving ART treatment and had follow-ups between January 2014 and December 2019. To compare the survival experiences of different patient groups, the Log rank test was performed. The Weibull accelerated failure time gamma shared frailty model was used to find determinants of HIV/TB co-infected patients' survival time.

Results

Among HIV/TB co-infected patients, 87 (35.39%) died of whom 77 (88.5%) patients were females. The Weibull AFT gamma shared frailty model showed that sex, baseline age, adherence status, educational status of respondents, functional status, WHO clinical stage, baseline hemoglobin and type of TB were among the potential determinants of survival time of HIV/TB co-infected patients. Furthermore, the findings of this study demonstrated that there is a clustering impact on patient time to death that results from the residency of HIV/TB co-infected patients' survival time.

Conclusion and Recommendation

The majority of patients reside in rural area, have poor adherence to treatment, and have low CD4 cell counts. Educational status, WHO clinical stages, adherence status, and hemoglobin levels of patients are all important determinants of HIV/TB co-infected patients' survival. As a result, to improve the survival of HIV/TB co-infected patients at the start of and during some stages of anti-TB treatment, the concerned body, FMOH, in collaboration with Regional Health Bureau, should emphasize the importance of following treatment for HIV/TB co-infected patients with poor adherence status, advanced WHO clinical stages, and a low CD4+ count.

Predictors of Change in Weight Among People Living with HIV on Antiretroviral Treatment in West Hararghe Zone, Ethiopia: A Retrospective Longitudinal Study

Background

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a major global public health issue, particularly in Africa. In resource-limited settings like Ethiopia, regular weight measurement and monitoring is useful in the examination of patient response to antiretroviral therapy and in clinical decision-making. However, there is a paucity of evidence on factors that affect longitudinal weight change. Therefore, the present study was intended to identify predictors of weight change among people living with HIV (PLWH) in West Hararghe, Ethiopia.

Methods

An institutional-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 558 PLWH aged 18 years and above from September 2013 to January 2019 at Chiro Zonal Hospital and Gelemso General Hospital in West Hararghe zone, Ethiopia. Data were entered in Epi info 7 and analyzed in R software. The linear mixed effect regression model was used to identify predictors of longitudinal change in weight. Regression coefficients with their 95% confidence intervals were used to indicate the strength and significance of the association.

Results

Weight showed improvement in follow-up periods. In this study, age of respondent (beta=0.136, 95% CI, 0.044:0.227), time since the initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) (beta=0.089, 95% CI, 0.075:0.104), primary educational status (beta=2.403, 95% CI, 0.540:4.266), secondary educational status (beta=4.035, 95% CI, 1.666:6.404), tertiary and above educational status (beta=3.444, 95% CI, 0.330:6.558), sex (beta= −5.514, 95% CI, -7.260:-3.768), ambulatory functional status (beta= −3.419, 95% CI, −6.169:-0.668) and baseline CD4 count (≤200) (beta=2.205, 95% CI, 0.593, 3.817) were significant predictors of longitudinal weight change.

Conclusion

We observed an increment in weight among PLWH who were on ART in Ethiopia. Educational status, time since the beginning of ART, age and having CD4 count above 200 have contributed positively to the change in weight, while ambulatory functional status and being female are negatively associated with longitudinal change in weight. Close monitoring is recommended for patients with ambulatory baseline functional status and for patients with baseline CD4 count ≤200.

Assessment of Pattern of CD4+ T-Cell Recovery Among Human Immunodeficiency Virus Patients After Initiation of Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy at Arsi Negelle Health Center, Ethiopia: A Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Antiretroviral therapy has resulted in significant reductions in HIV-associated complications by recovering the CD4+ T cell count. Some patients may not be successful in attaining this result, and some may achieve it only after many years of treatment.

Objective

This study aimed to assess CD4+ T cell recovery and non-response patterns among HAART experienced HIV-positive patients at the Arsi Negelle health center.

Methods

This was a retrospective cross-sectional study conducted among HAART experienced HIV/AIDS patients at Arsi Negelle Health Center from January 01, 2014 to January 06, 2019. Data were documented to a data retrieval form and analyzed with SPSS version 20. Linear regression analysis was used to identify predictors of CD4 count change. A P-value of <0.05 was considered significant.

Results

The total median of CD4+ T cells increased from 257 cells/uL at the baseline to 382 cells/uL after 6 months, then to 591 cells/uL after 60 months of treatment. The non-response rate was 22.1% and 23.8% among the total study participants and children of less than 15 years, respectively. Only baseline CD4+ T cell was associated with a change in CD4+ T cell count.

Conclusion

From our study, we can conclude that CD4+ T cell count has recovered in most of the study participants after HAART initiation. The immunological non-response rate of study participants was 22.1% after 12 months on HAART and 7.2% at the end of the study.

Burden of anemia and its association with HAART in HIV infected children in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Anemia is a common problem in HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) infected patients, and is associated with decreased functional capacity and quality of life. Ethiopia is one of the countries which has expanded highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) over the past years. The effect of HAART on anemia among HIV remains inconsistent and inconclusive, particularly in children. This study thus aimed to synthesize the prevalence of anemia among HIV infected Ethiopian children and its association with HAART initiation.

Methods

MEDLINE/PubMed, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Web of Science and Google scholar were used to identify 12 eligible studies reporting an association between anemia and HIV using a priori set criteria. PRISMA guideline was used to systematically review and meta-analysis these studies. Details of sample size, magnitude of effect sizes, including odds ratio (OR) and standard errors were extracted. Random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled estimates using STATA/SE version-14. I² and meta-bias statistics assessed heterogeneity and publication bias of the included studies. Sub-group analyses, based on study designs, were also carried out.

Results

In Ethiopia, the overall prevalence of anemia in HIV infected children was 22.3% (95% CI: 18.5–26.0%). The OR of anemia-HIV/AIDS comorbidity was 0.4 (95% CI, 0.2–0.5) in HAART initiated children as compared to non-initiated counterparts. Meta-bias and funnel plot detected no publication bias.

Conclusion

On aggregate, anemia is a common comorbidity in pediatric HIV patients. HAART was significantly associated with a reduced anemia-HIV/AIDS comorbidity. Prompt start of HAART might help decreasing the prevalence of anemia and its subsequent complications.

Cumulative viral load as a predictor of CD4+ T-cell response to antiretroviral therapy using Bayesian statistical models

INTRODUCTION

There are Challenges in statistically modelling immune responses to longitudinal HIV viral load exposure as a function of covariates. We define Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo mixed effects models to incorporate priors and examine the effect of different distributional assumptions. We prospectively fit these models to an as-yet-unpublished data from the Tshwane District Hospital HIV treatment clinic in South Africa, to determine if cumulative log viral load, an indicator of long-term viral exposure, is a valid predictor of immune response.

METHODS

Models are defined, to express 'slope', i.e. mean annual increase in CD4 counts, and 'asymptote', i.e. the odds of having a CD4 count ≥500 cells/μL during antiretroviral treatment, as a function of covariates and random-effects. We compare the effect of using informative versus non-informative prior distributions on model parameters. Models with cubic splines or Skew-normal distributions are also compared using the conditional Deviance Information Criterion.

RESULTS

The data of 750 patients are analyzed. Overall, models adjusting for cumulative log viral load provide a significantly better fit than those that do not. An increase in cumulative log viral load is associated with a decrease in CD4 count slope (19.6 cells/μL (95% credible interval: 28.26, 10.93)) and a reduction in the odds of achieving a CD4 counts ≥500 cells/μL (0.42 (95% CI: 0.236, 0.730)) during 5 years of therapy. Using informative priors improves the cumulative log viral load estimate, and a skew-normal distribution for the random-intercept and measurement error results is a better fit compared to using classical Gaussian distributions.

DISCUSSION

We demonstrate in an unpublished South African cohort that cumulative log viral load is a strong and significant predictor of both CD4 count slope and asymptote. We argue that Bayesian methods should be used more frequently for such data, given their flexibility to incorporate prior information and non-Gaussian distributions.

Model-based prediction of CD4 cells counts in HIV-infected adults on antiretroviral therapy in Northwest Ethiopia: A flexible mixed effects approach

Background

CD4 cell counts is widely used as a biomarker for treatment progression when studying the efficacy of drugs to treat HIV-infected patients. In the past, it had been also used in determining eligibility to initiate antiretroviral therapy. The main aim of this was to model the evolution of CD4 counts over time and use this model for an early prediction of subject-specific time to cross a pre-specified CD4 threshold.

Methods

Hospital based retrospective cohort study of HIV-infected patients was conducted from January 2009 to December 2014 at University of Gondar hospital, Northwest Ethiopia. Fractional polynomial random effect model is used to model the evolution of CD4 counts over time in response to treatment and to estimate the individual probability to be above a pre-selected CD4 threshold. Human subject research approval for this study was received from University of Gondar Research Ethics Committee and the medical director of the hospital.

Results

A total of 1347 patients were included in the analysis presented in this paper. The cohort contributed a total of 236.58 per 100 person-years of follow-up. Later the data were divided into two periods: the first is the estimation period in which the parameters of the model are estimated and the second is the prediction period. Based on the parameters from the estimation period, model based prediction for the time to cross a threshold was estimated. The correlations between observed and predicted values of CD4 levels in the estimation period were 0.977 and 0.982 for Neverapine and Efavirenz containing regimens, respectively; while the correlation between the observed and predicted CD4 counts in the prediction period are 0.742 and 0.805 for NVP and EFV, respectively.

Conclusions

The model enables us to estimate a subject-specific expected time to cross a CD4 threshold and to estimate a subject-specific probability to have CD4 count above a pre-specified threshold at each time point. By predicting long-term outcomes of CD4 count of the patients one can advise patient about the potential ART benefits that accrue in the long-term.

Lymphocyte and its CD4+ and CD8+ subgroup changes after paraquat poisoning

OBJECTIVE

Paraquat (PQ) poisoning is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity in developing countries. Poor prognostic outcomes have been attributed to the herbicide's toxicity and the lack of effective treatments. Our study aims to investigate the changes in lymphocyte count in both patients who survived and died from PQ poisoning and explore the prognostic value.

METHOD

This is a retrospective case serials observational study. Adult patients admitted with acute PQ poisoning. The notes of 1000 patients who presented with acute PQ poisoning were reviewed. One hundred thirty patients having the T lymphocyte met the inclusion criteria and were grouped into those that survived the poisoning (95) and non-survivors (35).

RESULTS

On admission, non-survivors had a higher ingestion volume of PQ and urine PQ concentration as well as higher severity indices (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation 2, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, and Poisoning Severity Score). Patients in the survival group had a higher dosage of immunosuppressant and a longer hospital stay. Leukocytes, especially neutrophils, were higher among non-survivors; however, the converse was found with lymphocytes. T lymphocyte (CD3) count was consistently higher among survivors as well as the subgroups CD4+ and CD8+. No differences in the ratio of CD4/CD8 were found between the groups.

CONCLUSION

Our study has shown that changes in lymphocyte count as its subgroups could indicate a host's immune status and lymphocytes play an important role as a surrogate marker of host immunity, which could be a useful prognostic tool in the assessment of this disease.

HIV treatment outcomes following antiretroviral therapy initiation and monitoring: A workplace program in Papua, Indonesia

Background

Papua Province, Indonesia is experiencing an on-going epidemic of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection, with an estimated 9-fold greater prevalence than the overall national rate. This study reviewed the treatment outcomes of an HIV-infected cohort on Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) and the predictors in terms of immunological recovery and virological response.

Methods

ART-naïve individuals in a workplace HIV program in southern Papua were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were assessed at 6, 12 and 36 months after ART initiation for treatment outcomes, and risk factors for virological suppression (viral load (VL) <1,000 copies/ml), poor immune response (CD4 <200 cells/mm³) and immunological failure (CD4 <100 cells/ mm³) after at least 6 months on ART, using a longitudinal Generalized Estimating Equations multivariate model.

Results

Assessment of 105 patients were included in the final analysis with a median age of 34 years, 88% male, median baseline CD4 236 cells/ mm³, and VL 179,000 copies/ml. There were 74, 73, and 39 patients at 6, 12, and 36 months follow-up, respectively, with 5 deaths over the entire period. For the three observation periods, 68, 80, and 75% of patents achieved virological suppression, poor immune responders decreased from 15, 16 to 10%, whilst 15, 16, 10% met the immunological failure criteria, respectively. Using multivariate analysis, the independent predictor for viral suppression at 12 and 36 months was ≥1 log decrease in VL at 6 months (OR 19.25, p<0.001). Higher baseline CD4 was significantly correlated with better immunological outcomes, and lower likelihood of experiencing immunological failure (p <0.001).

Conclusion

Virological response at six months after beginning ART is the strongest predictor of viral suppression at 12 and 36 months, and may help in identifying patients needing additional adherence therapy support. Higher baseline CD4 positively affects the immunological outcomes of patients. The findings indicate HIV control programs should prioritize the availability of VL testing and begin ART regardless of CD4 counts in infected patients.

Time to immunologic recovery and determinant factors among adults who initiated ART in Felege Hiwot Referral Hospital, northwest Ethiopia

Background

CD4 cells are the major targets for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and treatment with Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) influences the CD4 cell count of HIV patients. In addition to ART, the time required to reach normal range of CD4 counts (500 cells/mm³) can be affected by clinical, socio-demographic, and behavioral factors. This retrospective cohort study was conducted to determine the incidence of having the normal range of CD4 cell counts and factors that affect the time required to reach this normal range among adult HIV patients who initiated into ART.

Methods

Data of 4 years were retrospectively retrieved from routinely registered characteristics of 937 ART users enrolled in 2010. Survival time until immunologic recovery and its determinant factors were examined using the frailty model with different parametric distributions alternatively.

Results

Most (80.8%) of the ART attendants had CD4 cell count of 200 cells/mm³ or less at initiation. The overall incidence rate of immunologic recovery was 12.67 persons per 1000 person-months (95% CI 11.30, 14.20). The dependency of frailties of immunologic recovery by residence was statistically significant (Theta = 0.05, p value = 0.006). Baseline age (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) = 0.98, 95% CI 0.97, 0.99), baseline CD4 count (AHR = 1.006, 95% CI 1.005, 1.008), and female sex (AHR = 1.34, 95% CI 1.03, 1.73) were significantly associated with shorter survival time for immunologic recovery.

Conclusion

Higher baseline CD4 count, lower baseline age, and female sex were positively associated with the time to immunologic recovery, which also dependent on proximity/residence of ART users. Therefore, further scale up of ART services with due emphasis to patients with low CD4 count at baseline particularly for male and older ART users are recommended to reach the normal range of CD4 count in a shorter time of treatment.

Systematic review of statistically-derived models of immunological response in HIV-infected adults on antiretroviral therapy in Sub-Saharan Africa

Introduction

In Sub-Saharan African (SSA) resource limited settings, Cluster of Differentiation 4 (CD4) counts continue to be used for clinical decision making in antiretroviral therapy (ART). Here, HIV-infected people often remain with CD4 counts <350 cells/μL even after 5 years of viral load suppression. Ongoing immunological monitoring is necessary. Due to varying statistical modeling methods comparing immune response to ART across different cohorts is difficult. We systematically review such models and detail the similarities, differences and problems.

Methods

‘Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses’ guidelines were used. Only studies of immune-response after ART initiation from SSA in adults were included. Data was extracted from each study and tabulated. Outcomes were categorized into 3 groups: ‘slope’, ‘survival’, and ‘asymptote’ models. Wordclouds were drawn wherein the frequency of variables occurring in the reviewed models is indicated by their size and color.

Results

69 covariates were identified in the final models of 35 studies. Effect sizes of covariates were not directly quantitatively comparable in view of the combination of differing variables and scale transformation methods across models. Wordclouds enabled the identification of qualitative and semi-quantitative covariate sets for each outcome category. Comparison across categories identified sex, baseline age, baseline log viral load, baseline CD4, ART initiation regimen and ART duration as a minimal consensus set.

Conclusion

Most models were different with respect to covariates included, variable transformations and scales, model assumptions, modelling strategies and reporting methods, even for the same outcomes. To enable comparison across cohorts, statistical models would benefit from the application of more uniform modelling techniques. Historic efforts have produced results that are anecdotal to individual cohorts only. This study was able to define ‘prior’ knowledge in the Bayesian sense. Such information has value for prospective modelling efforts.

Predictors of CD4 count over time among HIV patients initiated ART in Felege Hiwot Referral Hospital, northwest Ethiopia: multilevel analysis

Background

The response of HIV patients to antiretroviral therapy could be measured by its strong predictor, the CD4+ T cell (CD4) count for the initiation of antiretroviral therapy and proper management of disease progress. However, in addition to HIV, there are other factors which can influence the CD4 cell count. Patient’s socio-economic, demographic, and behavioral variables, accessibility, duration of treatment etc., can be used to predict CD4 count.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted to examine the predictors of CD4 count among ART users enrolled in the first 6 months of 2010 and followed upto mid 2014. The covariance components model was employed to determine the predictors of CD4 count over time.

Results

A total of 1196 ART attendants were used to analyze their data descriptively. Eight hundred sixty-one of the attendants had two or more CD4 count measurements and were used in modeling their data using the linear mixed method. Thus, the mean rates of incensement of CD4 counts for patients with ambulatory/bedridden and working baseline functional status were 17.4 and 30.6 cells/mm³ per year, respectively. After adjusting for other variables, for each additional baseline CD4 count, the gain in CD4 count during treatment was 0.818 cells/mm³ (p value <0.001). Patient’s age and baseline functional status were also statistically significantly associated with CD4 count.

Conclusion

In this study, higher baseline CD4 count, younger age, working functional status, and time in treatment contributed positively to the increment of the CD4 count. However, the observed increment at 4 year was unsatisfactory as the proportion of ART users who reached the normal range of CD4 count was very low. To see their long term treatment outcome, it requires further research with a sufficiently longer follow up data. In line with this, the local CD4 count for HIV negative persons should also be investigated for better comparison and proper disease management.

Retention of Adult Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis 2008-2013

BACKGROUND

We previously published systematic reviews of retention in care after antiretroviral therapy initiation among general adult populations in sub-Saharan Africa. We estimated 36-month retention at 73% for publications from 2007 to 2010. This report extends the review to cover 2008-2013 and expands it to all low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Register, and ISI Web of Science from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2013, and abstracts from AIDS and IAS from 2008-2013. We estimated retention across cohorts using simple averages and interpolated missing times through the last time reported. We estimated all-cause attrition (death, loss to follow-up) for patients receiving first-line antiretroviral therapy in routine settings in low- and middle-income countries.

RESULTS

We found 123 articles and abstracts reporting retention for 154 patient cohorts and 1,554,773 patients in 42 countries. Overall, 43% of all patients not retained were known to have died. Unweighted averages of reported retention were 78%, 71%, and 69% at 12, 24, and 36 months, after treatment initiation, respectively. We estimated 36-month retention at 65% in Africa, 80% in Asia, and 64% in Latin America and the Caribbean. From lifetable analysis, we estimated retention at 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months at 83%, 74%, 68%, 64%, and 60%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Retention at 36 months on treatment averages 65%-70%. There are several important gaps in the evidence base, which could be filled by further research, especially in terms of geographic coverage and duration of follow-up.

Prevalence and Predictors of Immunological Failure among HIV Patients on HAART in Southern Ethiopia

Immunological monitoring is part of the standard of care for patients on antiretroviral treatment. Yet, little is known about the routine implementation of immunological laboratory monitoring and utilization in clinical care in Ethiopia. This study assessed the pattern of immunological monitoring, immunological response, level of immunological treatment failure and factors related to it among patients on antiretroviral therapy in selected hospitals in southern Ethiopia. A retrospective longitudinal analytic study was conducted using documents of patients started on antiretroviral therapy. Adequacy of timely immunological monitoring was assessed every six months the first year and every one year thereafter. Immunological response was assessed every six months at cohort level. Immunological failure was based on the criteria: fall of follow-up CD4 cell count to baseline (or below), or CD4 levels persisting below 100 cells/mm3, or 50% fall from on-treatment peak value. A total of 1,321 documents of patients reviewed revealed timely immunological monitoring were inadequate. There was adequate immunological response, with pediatric patients, females, those with less advanced illness (baseline WHO Stage I or II) and those with higher baseline CD4 cell count found to have better immunological recovery. Thirty-nine patients (3%) were not evaluated for immunological failure because they had frequent treatment interruption. Despite overall adequate immunological response at group level, the prevalence of those who ever experienced immunological failure was 17.6% (n=226), while after subsequent re-evaluation it dropped to 11.5% (n=147). Having WHO Stage III/IV of the disease or a higher CD4 cell count at baseline was identified as a risk for immunological failure. Few patients with confirmed failure were switched to second line therapy. These findings highlight the magnitude of the problem of immunological failure and the gap in management. Prioritizing care for high risk patients may help in effective utilization of meager resources.

CD4 cell count trends after commencement of antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected patients in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia: a retrospective cross-sectional study

Background

The rate and extent of CD4 cell recovery varies widely among HIV-infected patients with different baseline CD4 cell count strata. The objective of the study was to assess trends in CD4 cell counts in HIV-infected patients after initiation of antiretroviral therapy in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia.

Methods

A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted by reviewing medical records of HIV patients who received antiretroviral treatment at twenty health centers in Tigray region during 2008–2012. Multi-stage cluster sampling technique was employed to collect data, and the data were analyzed using SPSS version 20.0 software.

Results

The median change from baseline to the most recent CD4 cell count was +292 cells/μl. By 5 years, the overall median (inter-quartile range, IQR) CD4 cell count was 444(263-557) cells/μl while the median (IQR) CD4 cell count was 342(246-580) cells/μl among patients with baseline CD4 cell counts ≤200 cells/μl, 500(241-557) cells/μl among those with baseline CD4 cell counts of 201–350 cells/μl, and 652(537-767) cells/μl among those with baseline CD4 cell counts >350 cells/μl. Higher baseline CD4 cell counts and being male were independently associated with the risk of immunological non-response at 12 months. Furthermore, it was also investigated that these factors were significant predictors of subsequent CD4 cell recovery.

Conclusions

Patients with higher baseline CD4 cell stratum returned to normal CD4 Cell counts though they had an increased risk of immunological non-response at 12 months compared to those with the least baseline CD4 cell stratum. The findings suggest that consideration be given to initiation of HAART at a CD4 cell count >350 cells/μl to achieve better immune recovery, and to HIV-infected male patients to improve their health seeking behavior.