Combining a climatic niche model of an invasive fungus with its host species distributions to identify risks to natural assets: Puccinia psidii Sensu Lato in Australia

Chinee Apple (Ziziphus mauritiana): A Comprehensive Review of Its Weediness, Ecological Impacts and Management Approaches

Ziziphus mauritiana Lam. (Rhamnaceae) (Chinee Apple, Indian Jujube, or Ber) is a significant woody weed in the drier tropics of northern Queensland, Western Australia, and the Northern Territory. Throughout these regions, its densely formed thickets influence the structure, function, and composition of rangeland ecosystems by outcompeting native pasture species. Despite this, the recent literature is heavily focused on the horticultural value of domesticated Ziziphus species in South Asia (China, India, and Pakistan), particularly its potential for poverty alleviation in arid or semi-arid areas. In fact, there has been comparatively little research undertaken on its invasiveness or associated ecological factors in pastoral contexts. Currently, the management of Z. mauritiana is limited to the application of synthetic herbicides or mechanical clearing operations. There is also considerable interest in the exploitation of host-specific, natural enemies (biological control agents, herbivorous insects, fungi, bacteria, or viruses) for limiting the vigour, competitiveness, or reproductive capacity of Z. mauritiana in northern Australia. The development of a "bioherbicide" in lieu of synthetic counterparts may foster a more resilient coexistence between agricultural systems and the natural environment owing to its reduced environmental persistence and increased target specificity. This review summarises the current literature on the weediness, ecological impacts, and current management of this problematic weed, thereby identifying (i) opportunities for further research and (ii) recommendations for improved management within its invasive range.

Diversifying Indigenous Vulnerability and Adaptation: An Intersectional Reading of Māori Women’s Experiences of Health, Wellbeing, and Climate Change

Despite evidence that Indigenous peoples’ multiple subjectivities engender diverse lived experiences both between and within Indigenous groups, the influence of multiple subjectivities on Indigenous peoples’ vulnerability and adaptation to climate change is largely un-explored. Drawing on ethnographic research with Indigenous Māori women in Aotearoa New Zealand, this paper provides empirical evidence that subjectivity-mediated power dynamics operating within Indigenous societies (at the individual and household scale) are important determinants of vulnerability and adaptation which should be considered in both scholarship and policy. Using an intersectional framework, I demonstrate how different Māori women and their whānau (families) live, cope with, and adapt to the embodied physical and emotional health effects of climate change in radically different ways because of their subject positionings, even though they belong to the same community, hapū (sub-tribe), or iwi (tribe). In underlining these heterogenous experiences, I provide an avenue for reconsidering how climate adaptation scholarship, policies, and practices might better engage with the complex, amorphous realities within Māori and other Indigenous communities. I argue it is possible to develop more inclusive, tailored, and sustainable adaptation that considers divergent vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities within Indigenous communities, groups, and societies and supports customised vulnerability-reduction strategies.

The evolution of thermal performance in native and invasive populations of Mimulus guttatus

The rise of globalization has spread organisms beyond their natural range, allowing further opportunity for species to adapt to novel environments and potentially become invaders. Yet, the role of thermal niche evolution in promoting the success of invasive species remains poorly understood. Here, we use thermal performance curves (TPCs) to test hypotheses about thermal adaptation during the invasion process. First, we tested the hypothesis that if species largely conserve their thermal niche in the introduced range, invasive populations may not evolve distinct TPCs relative to native populations, against the alternative hypothesis that thermal niche and therefore TPC evolution has occurred in the invasive range. Second, we tested the hypothesis that clines of TPC parameters are shallower or absent in the invasive range, against the alternative hypothesis that with sufficient time, standing genetic variation, and temperature‐mediated selection, invasive populations would re‐establish clines found in the native range in response to temperature gradients. To test these hypotheses, we built TPCs for 18 native (United States) and 13 invasive (United Kingdom) populations of the yellow monkeyflower, Mimulus guttatus. We grew clones of multiple genotypes per population at six temperature regimes in growth chambers. We found that invasive populations have not evolved different thermal optima or performance breadths, providing evidence for evolutionary stasis of thermal performance between the native and invasive ranges after over 200 years post introduction. Thermal optimum increased with mean annual temperature in the native range, indicating some adaptive differentiation among native populations that was absent in the invasive range. Further, native and invasive populations did not exhibit adaptive clines in thermal performance breadth with latitude or temperature seasonality. These findings suggest that TPCs remained unaltered post invasion, and that invasion may proceed via broad thermal tolerance and establishment in already climatically suitable areas rather than rapid evolution upon introduction.

The Potential Global Climate Suitability of Kiwifruit Bacterial Canker Disease (Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa)) Using Three Modelling Approaches: CLIMEX, Maxent and Multimodel Framework

In recent years, outbreaks of kiwifruit bacterial canker (Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae Psa) have caused huge economic losses to two major global kiwifruit producers, Italy and New Zealand. To evaluate the potential global risk areas of Psa, three modelling methods (MaxEnt, CLIMEX and a multimodel framework, including support vector machines or SVM) were used. Current global occurrence data for Psa were collected from different sources. The long-term climate data were sourced from WorldClim and CliMond websites. The model results were combined into a consensus model to identify the hotspots. The consensus model highlighted the areas where two or three models agreed on climate suitability for Psa. All three models agreed with respect to the climate suitability of areas where Psa is currently present and identified novel areas where Psa has not established yet. The SVM model predicted large areas in Central Asia, Australia, and Europe as more highly suitable compared to MaxEnt and CLIMEX. Annual mean temperature and annual precipitation contributed most to the MaxEnt prediction. Both MaxEnt and CLIMEX showed the probability of Psa establishment increased above 5 °C and decreased above 20 °C. The annual precipitation response curve showed that excessive rain (>1200 mm/y) constrains Psa establishment. Our modelling results will provide useful information for Psa management by highlighting the climatically susceptible areas where Psa has not established, such as the USA, Iran, Denmark, Belgium and especially South Africa, where kiwifruit has been planted commercially in recent years.

A general trait-based modelling framework for revealing patterns of airborne fungal dispersal threats to agriculture and native flora

Fungal plant pathogens are of economic and ecological importance to global agriculture and natural ecosystems. Long-distance atmospheric dispersal of fungal spores (LAD) can pose threats to agricultural and native vegetation lands. An understanding of such patterns of fungal spore dispersal and invasion pathways can provide valuable insights into plant protection. Spore traits affect their dispersal abilities. We propose a general trait-based framework for modelling LAD to reveal dispersal patterns and pathways, and assess subsequent threats of arrival (TOA) quantitatively in the context of biosecurity. To illustrate the framework, we present a study of Australia and its surrounding land masses. The overall dispersal pattern covered almost the entire continent of Australia. Fungal spores in the size class of 10 and 20 µm (aerodynamic diameter) posed the greatest TOA. Our study shows the effects of morphological traits on these potential TOA, and how they varied between source regions, size classes, and seasons. Our framework revealed spore dispersal patterns and pathways. It also facilitates comparisons of spatio-temporal dispersal dynamics among fungal classes, gaining insights into atmospheric long-distance dispersal of fungi as a whole, and provides a basis for assessing fungal pest threats in potential source regions based on easily measured spore characteristics.

Biology, Ecology and Management of the Invasive Navua Sedge (Cyperus aromaticus)-A Global Review

Navua sedge (Cyperus aromaticus (Ridley) Mattf. & Kukenth) is an invasive perennial sedge, native to tropical Africa, which is threatening many natural ecosystems and agroecosystems, especially in northern Queensland, Australia. Crop and pasture production have been impacted by Navua sedge and it is also directly causing reductions in dairy and beef production in affected regions. This review documents the biology, ecology and potential management options to minimise the spread and impact of Navua sedge. The weed reproduces both sexually (seeds) and vegetatively (via underground rhizomes). Its tiny seeds can be spread easily via wind, water, vehicles, farm machinery and animals, whilst the rhizomes assist with establishment of dense stands. The CLIMEX model (which uses distribution and climate data in native and novel ranges) indicates that in Australia, Navua sedge has the potential to spread further within Queensland and into the Northern Territory, New South Wales and Victoria. Several management strategies, including mechanical, chemical and agronomic methods, and their integration will have to be used to minimise agricultural production losses caused by Navua sedge, but most of these methods are currently either ineffective or uneconomical when used alone. Other management approaches, including biological control and mycoherbicides, are currently being explored. We conclude that a better understanding of the interaction of its physiological processes, ecological patterns and genetic diversity across a range of conditions found in the invaded and native habitats will help to contribute to and provide more effective integrated management approaches for Navua sedge.

Spatio-Environmental Analysis of Vespula germanica Nest Records Explains Slow Invasion in South Africa

Simple Summary

Social wasp invasions can spread quickly and have serious impacts if they reach new regions with favourable climatic conditions. However, in areas less suitable to them, invasion patterns can show factors that may prevent their spread. We use nest records of the German wasp from the southern tip of South Africa, to map and analyse what habitats they seem to prefer. Factors investigated included temperature, rainfall, and moisture availability. We find that this invasive wasp prefers moister and cooler conditions, and because these habitats are patchy in the region they have invaded in South Africa, they can only spread slowly unassisted, and utmost between 50 and 200 km with the assistance of humans. This is the likely reason for the very slow invasion seen in South Africa. The spatial patterns we quantify here make it possible to use a remote-sensing approach to determine the suitability of an area for future invasions. Predicting the likelihood of invasions will greatly aid management actions. Public awareness around the potential accidental transport of the German wasp and similar species should also be undertaken.

Abstract

Investigating the distributions of invasive species in marginal habitats can give clues to the factors constraining invasive spread. Vespula germanica is the most widely distributed of all the invasive Vespids, which in the Southern Hemisphere typically have large extensive invasive populations. In contrast, the invasion into South Africa has been slow and is still confined to a small geographic area. Here we analyse the distribution of all recent nest records in South Africa (n = 405). The distance to main rivers, mean annual rainfall, summer normalised difference moisture index (NDMI) values, and mean annual temperatures (average, minimum, maximum, and summer maximum temperature) was measured for every nest. We find that value ranges of these variables are different between the value ranges recorded for nests, the general distribution area of the wasp, and the area of absence. Optimised Hot Spot Analysis was used to quantify spatial structure in the measured climatic variables. Generally, factors related to moisture stress set the environmental limits of V. germanica’s landscape distribution. Due to the strong preference of nesting sites close to river courses, for higher rainfall conditions, medium to medium-high NDMI values, and lower mean annual temperatures, it is unlikely that V. germanica will be able to spread uniformly where it is currently found in South Africa.

Pathogen Incursions - Integrating Technical Expertise in a Socio-Political Context

The incursion of a plant pathogen into a new geographic area initiates a series of decisions about appropriate control or eradication efforts. Incomplete, erroneous, and/or selective information may be used by diverse stakeholders to support individual goals and positions on how an incursion should be managed. We discuss the complex social, political, and technical factors that shape a biosecurity response prior to reviewing information needs and common stakeholder misunderstandings. Selected examples focus on the rust fungi (order Pucciniales). We then explore how plant pathologists, as technical experts, can interact with biosecurity stakeholders to build empathy and understanding that in turn allows a shift from being a distant subject matter expert to an active participant helping to structure problems and shape knowledge flows for better outcomes.

Priority setting for invasive species management by the water industry

The expansion of Invasive Alien Species (IAS) is a growing concern to the UK water industry because of their diverse impacts on water quality, infrastructure and eradication costs. New regulations reinforcing the industry's responsibilities beyond operational costs, coupled with continued range expansion and establishment of new IAS will increase damages. To tackle IAS effectively, the water industry requires reliable information about which species pose the greatest risk to operations and which areas are most vulnerable to invasion. Here we assess potential biosecurity threats for the 24 water companies in the UK using well-established modelling research techniques such as risk assessment and distribution modelling. Using a consensus approach with environmental managers and water companies, we identified 11 IAS of concern for the UK water industry, including five plants, three crustaceans, two molluscs and one fish. These invaders pose important hazards in terms of water quality, flood protection, human health, integrity of infrastructures, recreational and aesthetic values, amongst others. We used distribution models to predict their potential expansion under current and future 2050 climate scenarios within each of the 24 water companies in the UK. Water companies in the South East of England (Cambridge Water, Anglian Water, Affinity Water and Thames Water) are under the highest risk of invasional meltdown from multiple IAS, both now and under future scenarios. The quagga mussel poses the most serious risk of immediate spread and may exacerbate the impacts of the widespread zebra mussel for the water industry. The information generated in this study can support the prioritization of species and regions at risk, so that funds for prevention and eradication of invasions are well allocated. Ultimately, this study demonstrates that scientific risk assessments, usually restricted to the academic and public sectors, can be extremely useful to guide decision-making by the private sector.

Prediction of current and future potential distributions of the Eucalyptus pest Leptocybe invasa (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) in China using the CLIMEX model

BACKGROUND

The wasp Leptocybe invasa Fisher & LaSalle (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), a Eucalyptus (Myrtaceae) pest native to Australia, has caused economic and ecologic losses in China. It is a serious pest in southern provinces. Because climate is a limiting factor in insect distribution, we used the model CLIMEX to predict the effect of climate change on potential current and future distributions of L. invasa in China. Data were collected on the current locations of this wasp, along with the damage incurred to Eucalyptus. These data were used to create a forecast model to predict potential current and future distribution maps of L. invasa in China.

RESULTS

The verification results showed that 99.5% of the distribution samples formulated by the model are highly reliable and accurate. The result predicted that the potential current distribution of L. invasa will concentrate south of the Yellow River basin. The future distribution maps predicted a small-scale potential expansion north-northwest of Guangxi and more areas within China will provide increasingly suitable habitats for colonization by L. invasa.

CONCLUSION

These distribution predications will be useful in determining where preventive and control measures should be implemented against this pest wasp in Eucalyptus throughout China. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry.

Black Sigatoka in bananas: Ecoclimatic suitability and disease pressure assessments

Black leaf streak disease, or black Sigatoka, is caused by the fungus Pseudocercospora fijiensis, and has been identified as a major constraint to global production of banana and plantain. We fitted a climatic niche model (CLIMEX) for P. fijiensis to gain an understanding of the patterns of climate suitability, and hence hazard from this disease. We then calibrated the climate suitability patterns against the results of an expert elicitation of disease pressure patterns. We found a moderately strong non-linear relationship between modelled climate suitability for P.°fijiensis and the expert ratings for disease pressure. The strength of the relationship provides a cross-validation between the CLIMEX model and the expert elicitation process. The bulk of global banana production experiences high potential threat from P. fijiensis, and the higher yielding areas for banana and plantain production are at greatest threat. By explicitly considering the role of irrigation we have been able to identify how strategic irrigation could be used to support banana production in areas that are at low risk from P. fijiensis.

Many unreported crop pests and pathogens are probably already present

Invasive species threaten global biodiversity, food security and ecosystem function. Such incursions present challenges to agriculture where invasive species cause significant crop damage and require major economic investment to control production losses. Pest risk analysis (PRA) is key to prioritize agricultural biosecurity efforts, but is hampered by incomplete knowledge of current crop pest and pathogen distributions. Here, we develop predictive models of current pest distributions and test these models using new observations at subnational resolution. We apply generalized linear models (GLM) to estimate presence probabilities for 1,739 crop pests in the CABI pest distribution database. We test model predictions for 100 unobserved pest occurrences in the People's Republic of China (PRC), against observations of these pests abstracted from the Chinese literature. This resource has hitherto been omitted from databases on global pest distributions. Finally, we predict occurrences of all unobserved pests globally. Presence probability increases with host presence, presence in neighbouring regions, per capita GDP and global prevalence. Presence probability decreases with mean distance from coast and known host number per pest. The models are good predictors of pest presence in provinces of the PRC, with area under the ROC curve (AUC) values of 0.75-0.76. Large numbers of currently unobserved, but probably present pests (defined here as unreported pests with a predicted presence probability >0.75), are predicted in China, India, southern Brazil and some countries of the former USSR. We show that GLMs can predict presences of pseudoabsent pests at subnational resolution. The Chinese literature has been largely inaccessible to Western academia but contains important information that can support PRA. Prior studies have often assumed that unreported pests in a global distribution database represent a true absence. Our analysis provides a method for quantifying pseudoabsences to enable improved PRA and species distribution modelling.

Many unreported crop pests and pathogens are probably already present

Invasive species threaten global biodiversity, food security and ecosystem function. Such incursions present challenges to agriculture where invasive species cause significant crop damage and require major economic investment to control production losses. Pest risk analysis (PRA) is key to prioritize agricultural biosecurity efforts, but is hampered by incomplete knowledge of current crop pest and pathogen distributions. Here, we develop predictive models of current pest distributions and test these models using new observations at subnational resolution. We apply generalized linear models (GLM) to estimate presence probabilities for 1,739 crop pests in the CABI pest distribution database. We test model predictions for 100 unobserved pest occurrences in the People's Republic of China (PRC), against observations of these pests abstracted from the Chinese literature. This resource has hitherto been omitted from databases on global pest distributions. Finally, we predict occurrences of all unobserved pests globally. Presence probability increases with host presence, presence in neighbouring regions, per capita GDP and global prevalence. Presence probability decreases with mean distance from coast and known host number per pest. The models are good predictors of pest presence in provinces of the PRC, with area under the ROC curve (AUC) values of 0.75-0.76. Large numbers of currently unobserved, but probably present pests (defined here as unreported pests with a predicted presence probability >0.75), are predicted in China, India, southern Brazil and some countries of the former USSR. We show that GLMs can predict presences of pseudoabsent pests at subnational resolution. The Chinese literature has been largely inaccessible to Western academia but contains important information that can support PRA. Prior studies have often assumed that unreported pests in a global distribution database represent a true absence. Our analysis provides a method for quantifying pseudoabsences to enable improved PRA and species distribution modelling.

Comparison of host susceptibilities to native and exotic pathogens provides evidence for pathogen-imposed selection in forest trees

The extent to which spatial structuring of host resistance in wild plant populations reflects direct pathogen-imposed selection is a subject of debate. To examine this issue, genetic susceptibilities to an exotic and a coevolved native fungal pathogen were compared using two Australian host tree species. Damage to common host germplasm of Corymbia citriodora ssp. variegata (CCV) and Eucalyptus globulus, caused by recently introduced (Austropuccinia psidii) and native (Quambalaria pitereka and Teratosphaeria sp.) pathogens was evaluated in common-garden experiments. There was significant additive genetic variation within host species for susceptibility to both the exotic and native pathogens. However, susceptibility to A. psidii was not genetically correlated with susceptibility to either native pathogen, providing support for pathogen-specific rather than general mechanisms of resistance. Population differentiation (Q_ST ) for susceptibility to the native pathogens was greater than neutral expectations (molecular F_ST ), arguing for divergent selection. Coupled with lower native, but not exotic, pathogen susceptibility in host populations from areas climatically more prone to fungal proliferation, these findings suggest that pathogen-imposed selection has contributed directly to a geographic mosaic of host resistance to native pathogens.

Lessons from the Incursion of Myrtle Rust in Australia

Austropuccinia psidii (myrtle rust) is a globally invasive neotropical rust of the Myrtaceae that came into international prominence following extensive damage to exotic Eucalyptus plantations in Brazil in the 1970s and 1980s. In 2005, myrtle rust established in Hawaii (USA), and over the past 12 years has spread from the Americas into Asia, the Pacific, and South Africa. Myrtle rust was detected in Australia in 2010, and the response and ultimately unsuccessful eradication attempt was a lesson to those concerned about the threat of exotic pests and diseases to Australia's environment. Seven years following establishment, we are already observing the decline of many myrtaceous species and severe impacts to native plant communities. However, the recently developed Myrtle rust in Australia draft action plan identified that there is no nationally coordinated response strategy for the environmental dimensions of this threat. Recent reviews have identified a greater need for involvement from environmental agencies in biosecurity preparedness, response, and resourcing, and we believe this approach needs to extend to the management of invasive environmental pathogens once they establish.

De Novo Transcriptome Study Identifies Candidate Genes Involved in Resistance to Austropuccinia psidii (Myrtle Rust) in Syzygium luehmannii (Riberry)

Austropuccinia psidii, causal agent of myrtle rust, was discovered in Australia in 2010 and has since become established on a wide range of species within the family Myrtaceae. Syzygium luehmannii, endemic to Australia, is an increasingly valuable berry crop. Plants were screened for responses to A. psidii inoculation, and specific resistance, in the form of localized necrosis, was determined in 29% of individuals. To understand the molecular basis underlying this response, mRNA was sequenced from leaf samples taken preinoculation, and at 24 and 48 h postinoculation, from four resistant and four susceptible plants. Analyses, based on de novo transcriptome assemblies for all plants, identified significant expression changes in resistant plants (438 transcripts) 48 h after pathogen exposure compared with susceptible plants (three transcripts). Most significantly up-regulated in resistant plants were gene homologs for transcription factors, receptor-like kinases, and enzymes involved in secondary metabolite pathways. A putative G-type lectin receptor-like kinase was exclusively expressed in resistant individuals and two transcripts incorporating toll/interleukin-1, nucleotide binding site, and leucine-rich repeat domains were up-regulated in resistant plants. The results of this study provide the first early gene expression profiles for a plant of the family Myrtaceae in response to the myrtle rust pathogen.

Impact of Austropuccinia psidii (myrtle rust) on Myrtaceae-rich wet sclerophyll forests in south east Queensland

In April 2010, Austropuccinia psidii (formerly Puccinia psidii) was detected for the first time in Australia on the central coast of New South Wales. The fungus spread rapidly along the east coast and can now be found infecting vegetation in a range of native forest ecosystems with disease impacts ranging from minor leaf spots to severe shoot and stem blight and tree dieback. Localised extinction of some plant species has been recorded. In 2014, the impact of A. psidii was observed for the first time in a wet sclerophyll site with a rainforest understory, dominated by species of Myrtaceae, in Tallebudgera Valley, south east Queensland, Australia. This study aimed to determine the impact of A. psidii on individual species and species composition. Here we provide quantitative and qualitative evidence on the significant impact A. psidii has in native ecosystems, on a broader range of species than previously reported. Archirhodomyrtus beckleri, Decaspermum humile, Gossia hillii and Rhodamnia maideniana are in serious decline, with significant increases in tree mortality over the period of our study. This research further highlights the potential of this invasive pathogen to negatively impact native ecosystems and biodiversity.

Current and projected global distribution of Phytophthora cinnamomi, one of the world's worst plant pathogens

Globally, Phytophthora cinnamomi is listed as one of the 100 worst invasive alien species and active management is required to reduce impact and prevent spread in both horticulture and natural ecosystems. Conversely, there are regions thought to be suitable for the pathogen where no disease is observed. We developed a climex model for the global distribution of P. cinnamomi based on the pathogen's response to temperature and moisture and by incorporating extensive empirical evidence on the presence and absence of the pathogen. The climex model captured areas of climatic suitability where P. cinnamomi occurs that is congruent with all available records. The model was validated by the collection of soil samples from asymptomatic vegetation in areas projected to be suitable by the model for which there were few records. DNA was extracted, and the presence or absence of P. cinnamomi was determined by high-throughput sequencing (HTS). While not detected using traditional isolation methods, HTS detected P. cinnamomi at higher elevations in eastern Australia and central Tasmania as projected by the climex model. Further support for the climex model was obtained using the large data set from south-west Australia where the proportion of positive records in an area is related to the Ecoclimatic Index value for the same area. We provide for the first time a comprehensive global map of the current P. cinnamomi distribution, an improved climex model of the distribution, and a projection to 2080 of the distribution with predicted climate change. This information provides the basis for more detailed regional-scale modelling and supports risk assessment for governments to plan management of this important soil-borne plant pathogen.

Label-Free Quantitative Proteomic Analysis of Puccinia psidii Uredospores Reveals Differences of Fungal Populations Infecting Eucalyptus and Guava

Puccinia psidii sensu lato (s.l.) is the causal agent of eucalyptus and guava rust, but it also attacks a wide range of plant species from the myrtle family, resulting in a significant genetic and physiological variability among populations accessed from different hosts. The uredospores are crucial to P. psidii dissemination in the field. Although they are important for the fungal pathogenesis, their molecular characterization has been poorly studied. In this work, we report the first in-depth proteomic analysis of P. psidii s.l. uredospores from two contrasting populations: guava fruits (PpGuava) and eucalyptus leaves (PpEucalyptus). NanoUPLC-MSE was used to generate peptide spectra that were matched to the UniProt Puccinia genera sequences (UniProt database) resulting in the first proteomic analysis of the phytopathogenic fungus P. psidii. Three hundred and fourty proteins were detected and quantified using Label free proteomics. A significant number of unique proteins were found for each sample, others were significantly more or less abundant, according to the fungal populations. In PpGuava population, many proteins correlated with fungal virulence, such as malate dehydrogenase, proteossomes subunits, enolases and others were increased. On the other hand, PpEucalyptus proteins involved in biogenesis, protein folding and translocation were increased, supporting the physiological variability of the fungal populations according to their protein reservoirs and specific host interaction strategies.

Identification and Risk Assessment for Worldwide Invasion and Spread of Tuta absoluta with a Focus on Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Phytosanitary Measures and Management

To support management decisions, molecular characterization of data and geo-reference of incidence records of Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) were combined with data on the biology and ecology of the pest to estimate its climatic suitability and potential spread at regional and global scale. A CLIMEX model was developed and used for the global prediction of current and future climate-induced changes in the distributional shifts of T. absoluta. Results revealed that temperature and moisture characterized T. absoluta population growth while the pest ability to survive the cold, hot, wet and dry stress conditions are the primary characteristics defining its range frontiers. Simulated irrigation also played an important role in the model optimization. Model predictions suggest that T. absoluta represents an important threat to Africa, Asia, Australia, Northern Europe, New Zealand, Russian Federation and the United States of America (USA). Under climate change context, future predictions on distribution of T. absoluta indicated that the invasive nature of this pest will result in significant crop losses in certain locations whereas some parts of Africa may witness diminution in ranges. The following scenarios may occur: 1) T. absoluta damage potential may upsurge moderately in areas of Africa where the pest currently exists; 2) a range diminution in temperate to Sahel region with moderate upsurge in damage potential; 3) a range expansion in tropical Africa with reasonable upsurge of damage potential. These possible outcomes could be explained by the fact that the continent is already warm, with the average temperature in majority of localities near the threshold temperatures for optimal development and survival of T. absoluta. Outputs from this study should be useful in helping decision-makers in their assessment of site-specific risks of invasion and spread of T. absoluta with a view to developing appropriate surveillance, phytosanitary measures and management strategies.

Planting sentinel European trees in eastern Asia as a novel method to identify potential insect pest invaders

Quarantine measures to prevent insect invasions tend to focus on well-known pests but a large proportion of the recent invaders were not known to cause significant damage in their native range, or were not even known to science before their introduction. A novel method is proposed to detect new potential pests of woody plants in their region of origin before they are introduced to a new continent. Since Asia is currently considered to be the main supplier of insect invaders to Europe, sentinel trees were planted in China during 2007-2011 as an early warning tool to identify the potential for additional Asian insect species to colonize European trees. Seedlings (1-1.5 m tall) of five broadleaved (Quercus petraea, Q. suber, Q. ilex, Fagus sylvatica, and Carpinus betulus) and two conifer species (Abies alba and Cupressus sempervirens) were planted in blocks of 100 seedlings at two widely separated sites (one in a nursery near Beijing and the other in a forest environment near Fuyang in eastern China), and then regularly surveyed for colonization by insects. A total of 104 insect species, mostly defoliators, were observed on these new hosts, and at least six species were capable of larval development. Although a number of the insects observed were probably incidental feeders, 38 species had more than five colonization events, mostly infesting Q. petraea, and could be considered as being capable of switching to European trees if introduced to Europe. Three years was shown to be an appropriate duration for the experiment, since the rate of colonization then tended to plateau. A majority of the identified species appeared to have switched from agricultural crops and fruit trees rather than from forest trees. Although these results are promising, the method is not appropriate for xylophagous pests and other groups developing on larger trees. Apart from the logistical problems, the identification to species level of the specimens collected was a major difficulty. This situation could be improved by the development of molecular databases.

Global establishment risk of economically important fruit fly species (Tephritidae)

The global invasion of Tephritidae (fruit flies) attracts a great deal of attention in the field of plant quarantine and invasion biology because of their economic importance. Predicting which one in hundreds of potential invasive fruit fly species is most likely to establish in a region presents a significant challenge, but can be facilitated using a self organising map (SOM), which is able to analyse species associations to rank large numbers of species simultaneously with an index of establishment. A global presence/absence dataset including 180 economically significant fruit fly species in 118 countries was analysed using a SOM. We compare and contrast ranked lists from six countries selected from each continent, and also show that those countries geographically close were clustered together by the SOM analysis because they have similar fruit fly assemblages. These closely clustered countries therefore represent greater threats to each other as sources of invasive fruit fly species. Finally, we indicate how this SOM method could be utilized as an initial screen to support prioritizing fruit fly species for further research into their potential to invade a region.

Screening Eucalyptus cloeziana and E. argophloia Populations for Resistance to Puccinia psidii

Disease screening to determine the threat Puccinia psidii poses to plantation and native eucalypts in Australia was undertaken in half-sib families of two contrasting eucalypt species, Eucalyptus cloeziana and E. argophloia. Artificial inoculation with a single-lesion isolate of P. psidii was used to screen these species for resistance to the biotype of P. psidii established in Australia. The objective was to characterize resistance to P. psidii within these two distinct species: E. argophloia, a vulnerable species with a narrow distribution, and E. cloeziana, a species with a broad and extensive distribution in Queensland. Results for E. cloeziana indicate that inland provenances are more resistant to P. psidii infection than provenances from coastal regions. Heritability estimates for the two assessment systems used (resistance on a 1-to-5 ordinal scale verses resistance on a 0-to-1 binomial scale) were low to high (0.24 to 0.63) for E. argophloia and moderate to high (0.4 to 0.91) for E. cloeziana, indicating a significant level of additive genetic variance for rust resistance within the populations. This study demonstrates the potential to select resistant families within the tested populations and indicates that P. psidii could detrimentally affect these species in native forests, nurseries, and plantations.

Range-expanding pests and pathogens in a warming world

Crop pests and pathogens (CPPs) present a growing threat to food security and ecosystem management. The interactions between plants and their natural enemies are influenced by environmental conditions and thus global warming and climate change could affect CPP ranges and impact. Observations of changing CPP distributions over the twentieth century suggest that growing agricultural production and trade have been most important in disseminating CPPs, but there is some evidence for a latitudinal bias in range shifts that indicates a global warming signal. Species distribution models using climatic variables as drivers suggest that ranges will shift latitudinally in the future. The rapid spread of the Colorado potato beetle across Eurasia illustrates the importance of evolutionary adaptation, host distribution, and migration patterns in affecting the predictions of climate-based species distribution models. Understanding species range shifts in the framework of ecological niche theory may help to direct future research needs.

Rust fungi and global change

Rust fungi are important components of ecological communities and in ecosystem function. Their unique life strategies as biotrophic pathogens with complicated life cycles could make them vulnerable to global environmental change. While there are gaps in our knowledge, especially in natural plant–rust systems, this review of the exposure of rust fungi to global change parameters revealed that some host–rust relationships would decline under predicted environmental change scenarios, whereas others would either remain unchanged or become more prevalent. Notably, some graminicolous rusts are negatively affected by higher temperatures and increased concentrations of atmospheric CO2. An increase of atmospheric O3 appears to favour rust diseases on trees but not those on grasses. Combined effects of CO2 and O3 are intermediary. The most important global drivers for the geographical and host plant range expansion and prevalence of rusts, however, are global plant trade, host plant genetic homogenization and the regular occurrence of conducive environmental conditions, especially the availability of moisture. However, while rusts thrive in high-humidity environments, they can also survive in desert habitats, and as a group their environmental tolerance is large, with no conclusive change in their overall prevalence predictable to date.

The Myrtle rust pathogen, Puccinia psidii, discovered in Africa

Puccinia psidii, the cause of a disease today commonly referred to as Myrtle rust, is considered a high priority quarantine threat globally. It has a wide host range in the Myrtaceae and it is feared that it may result in significant damage to native ecosystems where these plants occur. The fungus is also of considerable concern to plantation forestry industries that propagate Australian Eucalyptus species. In May 2013, symptoms of a rust disease resembling those of P. psidii were observed on an ornamental Myrtaceous shrub in a garden in South Africa. The fungus was identified based on DNA sequence data of the ITS and 5.8S nrRNA gene regions and here we report, for the first time, the presence of P. psidii in Africa.