The effect of simulating different intermediate host snail species on the link between water temperature and schistosomiasis risk

Abundance, Distribution, and Diversity of Freshwater Snail and Prevalences of Their Infection by Cercaria of Fasciola gigantica and Schistosoma spp at Mayo-Vreck River, Far North Region of Cameroon

Malacological and parasitological studies were conducted from April 2020 to March 2021 to determine the abundance and distribution of molluscs and cercariae of Schistosoma spp and Fasciola gigantica. Collected molluscs are exposed to strong light to induce cercarial release. Mollusc densities were higher at station 1 (Gamak) than in station 8 (Patakai), with Bellamya unicolor and Biomphalaria pfeifferi more abundant and Bulinus truncatus, B. tropicus, and B. globosus less abundant. The overall prevalence of cercariae (19.87%) is higher in station 3 (Yaye orchard), station 9 (Gougni), station 4 (Madiogo), station 5 (Madiogo pasture), and station 6 (Ziam 3). It varies significantly between 15.76% in station 8 and 25.77% in station 3, between 8.48% in B. truncatus and 25.53% in B. globosus, and between 19.27% for cercariae of Schistosoma spp and 21.60% for those of F. gigantica. Cercarial emissions in L. natalensis and B. pfeifferi were higher in hot and cold dry seasons; on the other hand, cercarial emissions in B. globosus were higher in hot dry seasons (31.48%) and rainy seasons (23.38%). Emissions of cercariae from S. haematobium are related to areas of human activity and defecation, while those of F. gigantica in L. natalensis, Schistosoma haematobium in B. tropicus, and S. mansoni in B. pfeifferi are related to grazing areas. Mayo-Vreck is a site that favors the endemicity of fascioliasis and human schistosomiasis.

Temperature affects predation of schistosome-competent snails by a novel invader, the marbled crayfish Procambarus virginalis

The human burden of environmentally transmitted infectious diseases can depend strongly on ecological factors, including the presence or absence of natural enemies. The marbled crayfish (Procambarus virginalis) is a novel invasive species that can tolerate a wide range of ecological conditions and colonize diverse habitats. Marbled crayfish first appeared in Madagascar in 2005 and quickly spread across the country, overlapping with the distribution of freshwater snails that serve as the intermediate host of schistosomiasis-a parasitic disease of poverty with human prevalence ranging up to 94% in Madagascar. It has been hypothesized that the marbled crayfish may serve as a predator of schistosome-competent snails in areas where native predators cannot and yet no systematic study to date has been conducted to estimate its predation rate on snails. Here, we experimentally assessed marbled crayfish consumption of uninfected and infected schistosome-competent snails (Biomphalaria glabrata and Bulinus truncatus) across a range of temperatures, reflective of the habitat range of the marbled crayfish in Madagascar. We found that the relationship between crayfish consumption and temperature is unimodal with a peak at ~27.5°C. Per-capita consumption increased with body size and was not affected either by snail species or their infectious status. We detected a possible satiation effect, i.e., a small but significant reduction in per-capita consumption rate over the 72-hour duration of the predation experiment. Our results suggest that ecological parameters, such as temperature and crayfish weight, influence rates of consumption and, in turn, the potential impact of the marbled crayfish invasion on snail host populations.

Impact of precipitation on the prevalence of schistosomiasis mekongi in Lao PDR: Structural equation modelling using Earth observation satellite data

Increasing attention is being given to the effect of climate change on schistosomiasis, but the impact is currently unknown. As the intermediate snail host (Neotricula aperta) of Schistosoma mekongi inhabits the Mekong River, it is thought that environmental factors affecting the area of water will have an impact on the occurrence of schistosomiasis mekongi. The aim of the present study was to assess the impact of precipitation on the prevalence of human schistosomiasis mekongi using epidemiological data and Earth observation satellite data in Khong district, Champasak province, Lao PDR. Structural equation modelling (SEM) using epidemiological data and Earth observation satellite data was conducted to determine the factors associated with the number of schistosomiasis mekongi patients. As a result, SEM identified 3 significant factors independently associated with schistosomiasis mekongi: (1) a negative association with mass drug administration (MDA); (2) negative association with total precipitation per year; and (3) positive association with precipitation during the dry season. Precisely, regardless of MDA, the increase in total yearly precipitation was suggested to decrease the number of schistosomiasis patients, whereas an increase in precipitation in the dry season increased the number of schistosomiasis patients. This is probably because when total precipitation increases, the water level of the Mekong River rises, thus decreasing the density of infected larvae, cercaria, in the water, and the frequency of humans entering the river would also decrease. In contrast, when precipitation in the dry season is higher, the water level of the Mekong River also rises, which expands the snail habitant, and thus water contact between humans and the snails would also increase. The present study results suggest that increasing precipitation would impact the prevalence of schistosomiasis both positively and negatively, and precipitation should also be considered in the policy to eliminate schistosomiasis mekongi in Lao PDR.

Potential risk of colonization of Bulinus globosus in the mainland of China under climate change

Background

Bulinus globosus, the main intermediate snail host of Schistosoma haematobium. The increased contacts between Africa and China could even lead to large-scale dissemination of B. globosus in China. Temperature is the key factor affecting fresh-water snail transmission. This study predicted potential risk of colonization of B. globosus in the mainland of China under climate change.

Methods

We investigated minimum and maximum temperatures for B. globosus eggs, juveniles and adult snails kept under laboratory conditions to find the most suitable range by pinpointing the median effective temperatures (ET50). We also assessed the influence of temperature on spawning and estimated the accumulated temperature (AT). The average air temperatures between 1955 and 2019 in January and July, the coldest and hottest months in China, respectively, were collected from national meteorological monitoring stations and investigated in a geographic information system (GIS) using empirical Bayesian Kriging to evaluate the theoretical possibility for distribution of B. globosus in southern China based on temperature.

Results

The effective minimum temperature (ET50_min) for eggs, juveniles, adult snails and spawning were 8.5, 7.0, 7.0, 14.9 °C, respectively, with the corresponding maximum values (ET50_max) of 36.6, 40.5, 40.2 and 38.1 °C. The AT was calculated at 712.1 ± 64.9 °C·d. In 1955, the potential B. globosus distribution would have had a northern boundary stretching from the coastal areas of Guangdong Province and Guangxi Autonomous Region to southern Yunnan Province. Since then, this line has gradually moved northward.

Conclusions

Annual regeneration of B. globosus can be supported by the current climate conditions in the mainland of China, and a gradual expansion trend from south to north is shown in the study from 2015 to 2019. Thus, there is a potential risk of colonization of B. globosus in the mainland of China under climate change.

Graphical Abstract

Opportunity or catastrophe? effect of sea salt on host-parasite survival and reproduction

Seawater intrusion associated with decreasing groundwater levels and rising seawater levels may affect freshwater species and their parasites. While brackish water certainly impacts freshwater systems globally, its impact on disease transmission is largely unknown. This study examined the effect of artificial seawater on host-parasite interactions using a freshwater snail host, Biomphalaria alexandrina, and the human trematode parasite Schistosoma mansoni. To evaluate the impact of increasing salinity on disease transmission four variables were analyzed: snail survival, snail reproduction, infection prevalence, and the survival of the parasite infective stage (cercariae). We found a decrease in snail survival, snail egg mass production, and snail infection prevalence as salinity increases. However, cercarial survival peaked at an intermediate salinity value. Our results suggest that seawater intrusion into freshwaters has the potential to decrease schistosome transmission to humans.

Schistosomiasis with a Focus on Africa

Schistosomiasis is a common neglected tropical disease of impoverished people and livestock in many developing countries in tropical Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and Latin America. Substantial progress has been made in controlling schistosomiasis in some African countries, but the disease still prevails in most parts of sub-Saharan Africa with an estimated 800 million people at risk of infection. Current control strategies rely primarily on treatment with praziquantel, as no vaccine is available; however, treatment alone does not prevent reinfection. There has been emphasis on the use of integrated approaches in the control and elimination of the disease in recent years with the development of health infrastructure and health education. However, there is a need to evaluate the present status of African schistosomiasis, primarily caused by Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium, and the factors affecting the disease as the basis for developing more effective control and elimination strategies in the future. This review provides an historical perspective of schistosomiasis in Africa and discusses the current status of control efforts in those countries where the disease is endemic.

The Effect of Climate Change and the Snail-Schistosome Cycle in Transmission and Bio-Control of Schistosomiasis in Sub-Saharan Africa

In the next century, global warming, due to changes in climatic factors, is expected to have an enormous influence on the interactions between pathogens and their hosts. Over the years, the rate at which vector-borne diseases and their transmission dynamics modify and develop has been shown to be highly dependent to a certain extent on changes in temperature and geographical distribution. Schistosomiasis has been recognized as a tropical and neglected vector-borne disease whose rate of infection has been predicted to be elevated worldwide, especially in sub-Saharan Africa; the region currently with the highest proportion of people at risk, due to changes in climate. This review not only suggests the need to develop an efficient and effective model that will predict Schistosoma spp. population dynamics but seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of several current control strategies. The design of a framework model to predict and accommodate the future incidence of schistosomiasis in human population dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa is proposed. The impact of climate change on schistosomiasis transmission as well as the distribution of several freshwater snails responsible for the transmission of Schistosoma parasites in the region is also reviewed. Lastly, this article advocates for modelling several control mechanisms for schistosomiasis in sub-Saharan Africa so as to tackle the re-infection of the disease, even after treating infected people with praziquantel, the first-line treatment drug for schistosomiasis.

Persistent establishment of a tropical disease in Europe: the preadaptation of schistosomes to overwinter

Background

Global changes promote the spread of infectious diseases worldwide. In this context, tropical urogenital schistosomiasis is now permanently established in Corsica since its first emergence in 2013. The local persistence of the tropical pathogens (schistosomes) responsible for urogenital schistosomiasis at such latitudes might be explained by (i) the presence of its intermediate host, the snail Bulinus truncatus, (ii) the recurrent local reseeding of schistosomes by their vertebrate hosts (either human or animal) every summer, and/or (iii) the maintenance and survival of schistosomes within their snail hosts over winter.

Methods

In this study we conducted an ecological experiment to assess the ability of temperate and tropical schistosome strains to survive in classical winter temperatures in Corsican rivers when infecting temperate (local) snail strains. We also quantified the ability of the schistosomes to complete their life-cycle post-overwintering when returned to classical summer water temperatures.

Results

Our results show that Mediterranean molluscs are locally adapted to winter conditions compared to tropical molluscs. Moreover, temperate and tropical schistosome strains equally survived the cold and produced viable offspring when returned to optimal temperatures. These results indicate that schistosomes can overwinter under temperate climates when infecting locally adapted snails and might partly explain the establishment and maintenance of schistosomes in Corsica from year to year.

Conclusions

The observed broader thermal range of schistosomes compared to that of their snail hosts was unexpected and clearly indicates that the spread and establishment of schistosomiasis in temperate countries relies primarily on the presence of the locally adapted snail host lineages, currently known to be present in France, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Greece.

Schistosomes, snails and climate change: Current trends and future expectations

The exact impact of climate change on schistosomiasis, a disease caused by a blood fluke that affects more than 250 million people mainly in tropical and subtropical countries, is currently unknown, but likely to vary with the snail-parasite species' specific ecologies and the spatio-temporal scale of investigation. Here, by means of a systematic review to identify studies reporting on impacts of climate change on the agents of schistosomiasis, we provide an updated synthesis of the current knowledge about the climate change-schistosomiasis relation. We found that, despite a recent increase in scientific studies that discuss the potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis, only a handful of reports have applied modelling and predictive forecasting that provide a quantitative estimate of potential outcomes. The volume and type of evidence associated with climate change responses were found to be variable across geographical regions and snail-parasite taxonomic groups. Indeed, the strongest evidence stems from the People's Republic of China pertaining to Schistosoma japonicum. Some evidence is also available from eastern Africa, mainly for Schistosoma mansoni. While studies focused on the northern and southern range margins for schistosomiasis indicate an increase in transmission range as the most likely outcome, there was less agreement about the direction of outcomes from the central and eastern parts of Africa. The current lack of consensus suggests that climate change is more likely to shift than to expand the geographic ranges of schistosomiasis. A comparison between the current geographical distributions and the thermo-physiological limitations of the two main African schistosome species (Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni) offered additional insights, and showed that both species already exist near their thermo-physiological niche boundaries. The African species both stand to move considerably out of their "thermal comfort zone" in a future, warmer Africa, but S. haematobium in particular is likely to experience less favourable climatic temperatures. The consequences for schistosomiasis transmission will, to a large extent, depend on the parasites and snails ability to adapt or move. Based on the identified geographical trends and knowledge gaps about the climate change-schistosomiasis relation, we propose to align efforts to close the current knowledge gaps and focus on areas considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change.

Prevalence and intensity of Schistosoma haematobium infection among schoolchildren in central Zambia before and after mass treatment with a single dose of praziquantel

Introduction

Urinary schistosomiasis caused by Schistosoma haematobium is common in some parts of Lusaka Province, Zambia, where water contact activity is high and sanitation is poor. We conducted a longitudinal study in Ng'ombe Compound of Lusaka, between 2007 and 2015, to observe the prevalence and intensity of S. haematobium infection among community primary school children, before and after receiving a single dose of praziquantel.

Materials and Methods

A total of 975 (445 females and 530 males) pupils, aged 9-16 years, were tested for S. haematobium at baseline. After mass treatment with praziquantel in 2010, 1570 pupils (785 females and 785 males), aged 9-15 years, were examined for S. haematobium eggs, from 2011 to 2015.

Results

At baseline, 279 out of 975 of the children were infected, with light infections constituting 84.9% and 15.1% classified as heavy infection. After mass treatment with praziquantel, the prevalence rate dropped, slightly, to 20.3% (63 out of 310) in 2011. However, it increased the following years up to 38% (133 out of 350) in 2015, with prevalence rates higher in males than females. The average number of heavy infection cases increased to 24.3% (120 out of 494) after treatment, reducing cases of light infections to 75.7% (374 out of 494).

Conclusion

This study revealed that mass treatment with a single dose of praziquantel was not sufficient to significantly reduce the transmission of schistosomiasis. Further studies will need to evaluate whether multiple praziquantel treatments will be more therapeutically effective in limiting future incidences.

Snail-borne parasitic diseases: an update on global epidemiological distribution, transmission interruption and control methods

Background

Snail-borne parasitic diseases, such as angiostrongyliasis, clonorchiasis, fascioliasis, fasciolopsiasis, opisthorchiasis, paragonimiasis and schistosomiasis, pose risks to human health and cause major socioeconomic problems in many tropical and sub-tropical countries. In this review we summarize the core roles of snails in the life cycles of the parasites they host, their clinical manifestations and disease distributions, as well as snail control methods.

Main body

Snails have four roles in the life cycles of the parasites they host: as an intermediate host infected by the first-stage larvae, as the only intermediate host infected by miracidia, as the first intermediate host that ingests the parasite eggs are ingested, and as the first intermediate host penetrated by miracidia with or without the second intermediate host being an aquatic animal. Snail-borne parasitic diseases target many organs, such as the lungs, liver, biliary tract, intestines, brain and kidneys, leading to overactive immune responses, cancers, organ failure, infertility and even death. Developing countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America have the highest incidences of these diseases, while some endemic parasites have developed into worldwide epidemics through the global spread of snails. Physical, chemical and biological methods have been introduced to control the host snail populations to prevent disease.

Conclusions

In this review, we summarize the roles of snails in the life cycles of the parasites they host, the worldwide distribution of parasite-transmitting snails, the epidemiology and pathogenesis of snail-transmitted parasitic diseases, and the existing snail control measures, which will contribute to further understanding the snail-parasite relationship and new strategies for controlling snail-borne parasitic diseases.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s40249-018-0414-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Modeling Key Drivers of Cholera Transmission Dynamics Provides New Perspectives for Parasitology

Hydroclimatological and anthropogenic factors are key drivers of waterborne disease transmission. Information on human settlements and host mobility on waterways along which pathogens and hosts disperse, and relevant hydroclimatological processes, can be acquired remotely and included in spatially explicit mathematical models of disease transmission. In the case of epidemic cholera, such models allowed the description of complex disease patterns and provided insight into the course of ongoing epidemics. The inclusion of spatial information in models of disease transmission can aid in emergency management and the assessment of alternative interventions. Here, we review the study of drivers of transmission via spatially explicit approaches and argue that, because many parasitic waterborne diseases share the same drivers as cholera, similar principles may apply.

Experimental and modelling investigations of Opisthorchis viverrini miracidia transmission over time and across temperatures: implications for control

Transmissibility is a significant factor in parasite fitness. The rate and magnitude of parasite transmission affect prevalence and infection intensity in individual hosts and are influenced by environmental factors. In this context, the objectives of this study were: (i) to experimentally assess Opisthorchis viverrini miracidia survival and infectivity over time and across temperatures; and (ii) to combine these experimental results with environmental data to build a key component of a transmission model, identifying seasonal windows of transmission risk in hyper-endemic northeastern Thailand. Five replicates of 50 O. viverrini eggs were randomly distributed and maintained under four temperature conditions (25°C, 30°C, 35°C, 40°C). Microscopic observations were performed on all experimental units over a period of 3months to record miracidia motility and mortality trends. Six infection trials were also conducted to assess infectivity of miracidia over time and across temperatures, using observations of egg hatching success and infection rates. Upon completion of experiments, data were integrated into a transmission model to create a transmission risk index and to simulate seasonal transmission risk. Miracidia survival rate and motility decreased steadily with 50% mortality observed after 2weeks. Hatching and infection success also decreased significantly after 3weeks. Temperatures over 30°C were associated with increased mortality and decreased infectivity. When incorporating local environmental parameters into our model, we observed low transmission risk during the dry season and increasing transmission risk at the onset of the rainy season, culminating with the highest risk in September. We believe that our results provide the first estimates of O. viverrini miracidia survival and transmission potential under variable temperature conditions and suggest that high temperature treatment (>40°C) of fecal waste could be an efficient control strategy.

Intestinal schistosomiasis in Uganda at high altitude (>1400 m): malacological and epidemiological surveys on Mount Elgon and in Fort Portal crater lakes reveal extra preventive chemotherapy needs

Background

Intestinal schistosomiasis is of public health importance in Uganda but communities living above 1400 m are not targeted for control as natural transmission is thought unlikely. To assess altitudinal boundaries and at-risk populations, conjoint malacological and epidemiological surveys were undertaken on Mount Elgon (1139 m–3937 m), in Fort Portal crater lakes and in the Rwenzori Mountains (1123 m–4050 m).

Methods

Seventy freshwater habitats [Mount Elgon (37), Fort Portal crater lakes (23), Rwenzori Mountains (8) and Lake Albert (2)] were inspected for Biomphalaria species. Water temperature, pH and conductivity were recorded. A parasitological examination of 756 schoolchildren [Mount Elgon (300), Fort Portal crater lakes (456)] by faecal microscopy of duplicate Kato-Katz smears from two consecutive stool samples was bolstered by antigen (urine-CCA dipstick) and antibody (SEA-ELISA) diagnostic assays.

Results

Biomphalaria spp. was found up to 1951 m on Mount Elgon and 1567 m in the Fort Portal crater lakes. Although no snail from Mount Elgon shed cercariae, molecular analysis judged 7.1% of snails sampled at altitudes above 1400 m as having DNA of Schistosoma mansoni; in Fort Portal crater lakes three snails shed schistosome cercariae. Prevalence of intestinal schistosomiasis as measured in schoolchildren by Kato-Katz (Mount Elgon = 5.3% v. Fort Portal crater lakes = 10.7%), CCA urine-dipsticks (18.3% v. 34.4%) and SEA-ELISA (42.3% v. 63.7%) showed negative associations with increasing altitude with some evidence of infection up to 2000 m.

Conclusions

Contrary to expectations, these surveys clearly show that natural transmission of intestinal schistosomiasis occurs above 1400 m, possibly extending up to 2000 m. Using spatial epidemiological predictions, this now places some extra six million people at-risk, denoting an expansion of preventive chemotherapy needs in Uganda.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40249-017-0248-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Implications of Changing Temperatures on the Growth, Fecundity and Survival of Intermediate Host Snails of Schistosomiasis: A Systematic Review

Climate change has been predicted to increase the global mean temperature and to alter the ecological interactions among organisms. These changes may play critical roles in influencing the life history traits of the intermediate hosts (IHs). This review focused on studies and disease models that evaluate the potential effect of temperature rise on the ecology of IH snails and the development of parasites within them. The main focus was on IH snails of schistosome parasites that cause schistosomiasis in humans. A literature search was conducted on Google Scholar, EBSCOhost and PubMed databases using predefined medical subject heading terms, Boolean operators and truncation symbols in combinations with direct key words. The final synthesis included nineteen published articles. The studies reviewed indicated that temperature rise may alter the distribution, optimal conditions for breeding, growth and survival of IH snails which may eventually increase the spread and/or transmission of schistosomiasis. The literature also confirmed that the life history traits of IH snails and their interaction with the schistosome parasites are affected by temperature and hence a change in climate may have profound outcomes on the population size of snails, parasite density and disease epidemiology. We concluded that understanding the impact of temperature on the growth, fecundity and survival of IH snails may broaden the knowledge on the possible effects of climate change and hence inform schistosomiasis control programmes.

Natural and human induced factors influencing the abundance of Schistosoma host snails in Zambia

Schistosomiasis remains a global public health problem affecting about 240 million people. In Zambia, 2 million are infected while 3 million live with the risk of getting infected. Research and interventions relating to schistosomiasis are mainly linked to disease epidemiology. Malacological and ecological aspects of the disease are superficially understood. Developing effective control measures requires an understanding of interacting environmental and socioeconomic factors of host snails vis-a-vis schistosomiasis. Therefore, the present work involved collecting social and environmental data in a large field study in two zones in Zambia that are different in terms of temperature and rainfall amounts. Social data collected through questionnaires included demographic, educational and knowledge of schistosomiasis disease dynamics. Environmental data included physicochemical factors, aquatic plants and snails. Gender (P < 0.001) significantly influences livelihood strategies, while age (P = 0.069) and level of education (P = 0.086) have a moderate influence in zone I. In zone III, none of these factors (age, P = 0.378; gender, P = 0.311; education, P = 0.553) play a significant role. Environmental parameters explained 43 and 41 % variation in species composition for zones I and III, respectively. Most respondents' (52 %, 87 %) perception is that there are more cases of bilharzia in hot season than in other seasons (rainy season 23 %, 7 %; cold season 8 %, 0 % and year round 17 %, 6 %) for zone I and zone III, respectively.

Predicting the effects of climate change on Schistosoma mansoni transmission in eastern Africa

BACKGROUND

Survival and fitness attributes of free-living and sporocyst schistosome life-stages and their intermediate host snails are sensitive to water temperature. Climate change may alter the geographical distribution of schistosomiasis by affecting the suitability of freshwater bodies for hosting parasite and snail populations.

METHODS

We have developed an agent-based model of the temperature-sensitive stages of the Schistosoma mansoni and intermediate host snail lifecycles. The model was run using low, moderate and high warming climate projections over eastern Africa. For each climate projection, eight model scenarios were used to determine the sensitivity of predictions to different relationships between air and water temperature, and different snail mortality rates. Maps were produced showing predicted changes in risk as a result of increasing temperatures over the next 20 and 50 years.

RESULTS

Baseline model output compared to prevalence data indicates suitable temperatures are necessary but not sufficient for both S. mansoni transmission and high infection prevalences. All else being equal, infection risk may increase by up to 20% over most of eastern Africa over the next 20 and 50 years. Increases may be higher in Rwanda, Burundi, south-west Kenya and eastern Zambia, and S. mansoni may become newly endemic in some areas. Results for 20-year projections are robust to changes in simulated intermediate host snail habitat conditions. There is greater uncertainty about the effects of different habitats on changes in risk in 50 years' time.

CONCLUSIONS

Temperatures are likely to become suitable for increased S. mansoni transmission over much of eastern Africa. This may reduce the impact of control and elimination programmes. S. mansoni may also spread to new areas outside existing control programmes. We call for increased surveillance in areas defined as potentially suitable for emergent transmission.

Effect of water temperature and population density on the population dynamics of Schistosoma mansoni intermediate host snails

Background

Mathematical models can be used to identify areas at risk of increased or new schistosomiasis transmission as a result of climate change. The results of these models can be very different when parameterised to different species of host snail, which have varying temperature preferences. Currently, the experimental data needed by these models are available for only a few species of snail. The choice of density-dependent functions can also affect model results, but the effects of increasing densities on Biomphalaria populations have only previously been investigated in artificial aquariums.

Methods

Laboratory experiments were conducted to estimate Biomphalaria sudanica mortality, fecundity and growth rates at ten different constant water temperatures, ranging from 13-32°C. Snail cages were used to determine the effects of snail densities on B. sudanica and B. stanleyi mortality and fecundity rates in semi-natural conditions in Lake Albert.

Results

B. sudanica survival and fecundity were highest at 20°C and 22°C respectively. Growth in shell diameter was estimated to be highest at 23°C in small and medium sized snails, but the relationship between temperature and growth was not clear. The fecundity of both B. sudanica and B. stanleyi decreased by 72-75% with a four-fold increase in population density. Increasing densities four-fold also doubled B. stanleyi mortality rates, but had no effect on the survival of B. sudanica.

Conclusions

The optimum temperature for fecundity was lower for B. sudanica than for previously studied species of Biomphalaria. In contrast to other Biomphalaria species, B. sudanica have a distinct peak temperature for survival, as opposed to a plateau of highly suitable temperatures. For both B. stanleyi and B. sudanica, fecundity decreased with increasing population densities. This means that snail populations may experience large fluctuations in numbers, even in the absence of any external factors such as seasonal temperature changes. Survival also decreased with increasing density for B. stanleyi, in contrast to B. sudanica and other studied Biomphalaria species where only fecundity has been shown to decrease.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0503-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The effect of increasing water temperatures on Schistosoma mansoni transmission and Biomphalaria pfeifferi population dynamics: an agent-based modelling study

Introduction

There is increasing interest in the control and elimination of schistosomiasis. Little is known, however, about the likely effects of increasing water-body temperatures on transmission.

Methods

We have developed an agent-based model of the temperature-sensitive stages of the Schistosoma and intermediate host snail life-cycles, parameterised using data from S. mansoni and Biomphalaria pfeifferi laboratory and field-based observations. Infection risk is calculated as the number of cercariae in the model, adjusted for their probability of causing infection.

Results

The number of snails in the model is approximately constant between 15–31°C. Outside this range, snail numbers drop sharply, and the snail population cannot survive outside the range 14–32°C. Mean snail generation time decreases with increasing temperature from 176 days at 14°C to 46 days at 26°C. Human infection risk is highest between 16–18°C and 1 pm and 6–10 pm in calm water, and 20–25°C and 12–4 pm in flowing water. Infection risk increases sharply when temperatures increase above the minimum necessary for sustained transmission.

Conclusions

The model suggests that, in areas where S. mansoni is already endemic, warming of the water at transmission sites will have differential effects on both snails and parasites depending on abiotic properties of the water-body. Snail generation times will decrease in most areas, meaning that snail populations will recover faster from natural population reductions and from snail-control efforts. We suggest a link between the ecological properties of transmission sites and infection risk which could significantly affect the outcomes of interventions designed to alter water contact behaviour – proposing that such interventions are more likely to reduce infection levels at river locations than lakes, where infection risk remains high for longer. In cooler areas where snails are currently found, increasing temperatures may significantly increase infection risk, potentially leading to new, high-intensity foci of infection.