Losing ground--Swedish life expectancy in a comparative perspective

Fading family lines- women and men without children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren in 19th, 20th and 21st Century Northern Sweden

We studied to what extent family lines die out over the course of 122 years based on Swedish population-level data. Our data included demographic and socioeconomic information for four generations in the Skellefteå region of northern Sweden from 1885 to 2007. The first generation in our sample consisted of men and women born between 1885 and 1899 (N = 5850), and we observed their children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren. We found that 48% of the first generation did not have any living descendants (great-grandchildren) by 2007. The risk of a family line dying out within the four-generational framework was highest among those who had relatively low fertility in the first generation. Mortality during reproductive years was also a leading reason why individuals in the first generation ended up with a greater risk of not leaving descendants. We identified socioeconomic differences: both the highest-status and the lowest-status occupational groups saw an increased risk of not leaving any descendants. Almost all lineages that made it to the third generation also made it to the fourth generation.

Immigration, mortality, and national life expectancy in the Nordic region, 1990–2019

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Immigrants have higher life expectancy at age 1 than the native-born in Denmark, Finland and Norway do from 1990 to 2019.

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Immigrants in Denmark, Finland and Norway increasingly enhance national life expectancy at age 1 over time.

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Immigrants in Sweden have lower life expectancy at age 1 than native-born in Sweden do in 1990, but similar levels by 2019.

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The effect of immigrants on national life expectancy at age 1 in Sweden transforms from negative to positive over time.

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The unique mortality of immigrants affects rankings of life expectancy at age 1 in the Nordic region in recent years.

Changes in socioeconomic differentials in old age life expectancy in four Nordic countries: the impact of educational expansion and education-specific mortality

Overall progress in life expectancy (LE) depends increasingly on survival in older ages. The birth cohorts now reaching old age have experienced considerable educational expansion, which is a driving force for the social change and social inequality. Thus, this study examines changes in old age LE by educational attainment in the Nordic countries and aims to find out to what extent the change in national LEs is attributable to education-specific mortality and the shifting educational composition. We used national register data comprising total 65 + populations in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden to create period life tables stratified by five-year age groups (65-90 +), sex and educational attainment. Difference in LE between 2001 and 2015 was decomposed into the contributions of mortality changes within each educational group and changes in educational composition. Increasing LE at all ages and in all educational groups coincided with persistent and growing educational inequalities in all countries. Most of the gains in LE at age 65 could be attributed to decreased mortality (63-90%), especially among those with low education, the largest educational group in most countries. The proportion of the increase in LE attributable to improved education was 10-37%, with the highest contributions recorded for women in Norway and Sweden. The rising educational levels in the Nordic countries still carry potential for further gains in national LEs. However, the educational expansion has contributed to uneven gains in LE between education groups, which poses a risk for the future increase of inequalities in LE.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10433-022-00698-y.

Causes-of-Death Specific Estimates from Synthetic Health Measure: A Methodological Framework

Life expectancy at birth has attracted interest in various fields, as a health indicator that measures the quality of life. Its appeal relies on the ability to enclose and summarize all the factors affecting longevity. However, more granular information, provided by social indicators such as cause-of-death mortality rates, plays a crucial role in defining appropriate policies for governments to achieve well-being and sustainability goals. Unfortunately, their availability is not always guaranteed. Exploiting the relationship between life expectancy at birth and cause-of-death mortality rates, in this paper we propose an indirect model to produce estimates of death rates due to specific causes using the summary indicator of life expectancy at birth, thus the general levels of the observed mortality. By leveraging on a constrained optimization procedure, we ensure a robust framework where the cause-specific mortality rates are coherent to the aggregate mortality. The main advantage is that indirect estimations allow us to overcome the data availability problem: very often the cause-specific mortality data are incomplete, whereas data on the aggregate mortality are not. Using data from the Human Cause-of-Death Database, we show a numerical application of our model to two different countries, Russia and Spain, which have experienced a different evolution of life expectancy and different leading causes of death. In Spain, we detected the impact of several public health policies on the lowered levels of cancer deaths and related life expectancy increases. As regards the Russia, our results catch the effects of the anti-alcohol campaign of 1985-1988 on longevity changes.

Growing Income-Based Inequalities in Old-Age Life Expectancy in Sweden, 2006-2015

Sweden is known for high life expectancy and economic egalitarianism, yet in recent decades it has lost ground in both respects. This study tracked income inequality in old-age life expectancy and life span variation in Sweden between 2006 and 2015, and examined whether patterns varied across levels of neighborhood deprivation. Income inequality in remaining life expectancy at ages 65, 75, and 85 increased. The gap in life expectancy at age 65 grew by more than a year between the lowest and the highest income quartiles, for both men (from 3.4 years in 2006 to 4.5 years in 2015) and women (from 2.3 to 3.4 years). This widening income gap in old-age life expectancy was driven by different rates of mortality improvement: individuals with higher incomes increased their life expectancy at a faster rate than did those with lower incomes. Women with the lowest incomes experienced no improvement in old-age life expectancy. Furthermore, life span variation increased in the lowest income quartile, while it decreased slightly among those in the highest quartile. Income was found to be a stronger determinant of old-age life expectancy than neighborhood deprivation.

Age variations and population over-coverage: Is low mortality among migrants merely a data artefact?

The migrant mortality advantage has been observed extensively, but its authenticity is debated. In particular, concerns persist that the advantage is an artefact of the data, generated by the problems of recording mobility among foreign-born populations. Here, we build on the intersection of two recent developments: the first showing substantial age variation in the advantage-a deep U-shaped advantage at peak migration ages-and the second showing high levels of population over-coverage, the principal source of data artefact, at the same ages. We use event history analysis of Sweden's population registers (2010-15) to test whether this over-coverage can explain age variation in the migrant mortality advantage. We document its U-shape in Sweden and, crucially, demonstrate that large mortality differentials persist after adjusting for estimated over-coverage. Our findings contribute to ongoing debate by demonstrating that the migrant mortality advantage is real and by ruling out one of its primary mechanisms.

Life expectancy and disease burden in the Nordic countries: results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Nordic countries have commonalities in gender equality, economy, welfare, and health care, but differ in culture and lifestyle, which might create country-wise health differences. This study compared life expectancy, disease burden, and risk factors in the Nordic region.

METHODS

Life expectancy in years and age-standardised rates of overall, cause-specific, and risk factor-specific estimates of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were analysed in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017. Data were extracted for Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden (ie, the Nordic countries), and Greenland, an autonomous area of Denmark. Estimates were compared with global, high-income region, and Nordic regional estimates, including Greenland.

FINDINGS

All Nordic countries exceeded the global life expectancy; in 2017, the highest life expectancy was in Iceland among females (85·9 years [95% uncertainty interval [UI] 85·5-86·4] vs 75·6 years [75·3-75·9] globally) and Sweden among males (80·8 years [80·2-81·4] vs 70·5 years [70·1-70·8] globally). Females (82·7 years [81·9-83·4]) and males (78·8 years [78·1-79·5]) in Denmark and males in Finland (78·6 years [77·8-79·2]) had lower life expectancy than in the other Nordic countries. The lowest life expectancy in the Nordic region was in Greenland (females 77·2 years [76·2-78·0], males 70·8 years [70·3-71·4]). Overall disease burden was lower in the Nordic countries than globally, with the lowest age-standardised DALY rates among Swedish males (18 555·7 DALYs [95% UI 15 968·6-21 426·8] per 100 000 population vs 35 834·3 DALYs [33 218·2-38 740·7] globally) and Icelandic females (16 074·1 DALYs [13 216·4-19 240·8] vs 29 934·6 DALYs [26 981·9-33 211·2] globally). Greenland had substantially higher DALY rates (26 666·6 DALYs [23 478·4-30 218·8] among females, 33 101·3 DALYs [30 182·3-36 218·6] among males) than the Nordic countries. Country variation was primarily due to differences in causes that largely contributed to DALYs through mortality, such as ischaemic heart disease. These causes dominated male disease burden, whereas non-fatal causes such as low back pain were important for female disease burden. Smoking and metabolic risk factors were high-ranking risk factors across all countries. DALYs attributable to alcohol use and smoking were particularly high among the Danes, as was alcohol use among Finnish males.

INTERPRETATION

Risk factor differences might drive differences in life expectancy and disease burden that merit attention also in high-income settings such as the Nordic countries. Special attention should be given to the high disease burden in Greenland.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The work on this paper was supported by the Research Council of Norway through FRIPRO (project number 262030) and by the Norwegian Institute of Public Health.

Sex differences in mortality in migrants and the Swedish-born population: Is there a double survival advantage for immigrant women?

OBJECTIVES

In the present study, we examine whether the relationships between country of origin or reason for migration and mortality differ between men and women.

METHODS

We apply hazard regression models on high-quality Swedish register data with nationwide coverage.

RESULTS

Relative to their Swedish counterparts, migrants from Nordic and East European (EU) countries and former Yugoslavia have higher mortality. This excess mortality among migrants relative to Swedes is more pronounced in men than in women. Migrants from Western and Southern European countries; Iran, Iraq, and Turkey; Central and South America; and Asia, have lower mortality than Swedes, and the size of the mortality reduction is similar in both sexes. The predictive effects of the reason for migration for mortality are also similar in migrant men and women.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides little support for the hypothesis of a double survival advantage among immigrant women in Sweden. However, it does show that the excess mortality in migrants from Nordic and EU countries and former Yugoslavia relative to the Swedish-born population is more pronounced in men than in women.

Potential gains in life expectancy by reducing inequality of lifespans in Denmark: an international comparison and cause-of-death analysis

BACKGROUND

Reducing lifespan inequality is increasingly recognized as a health policy objective. Whereas lifespan inequality declined with rising longevity in most developed countries, Danish life expectancy stagnated between 1975 and 1995 for females and progressed slowly for males. It is unknown how Danish lifespan inequality changed, which causes of death drove these developments, and where the opportunities for further improvements lie now.

METHODS

We present an analytical strategy based on cause-by-age decompositions to simultaneously analyze changes in Danish life expectancy and lifespan inequality from 1960 to 2014, as well as current Swedish-Danish differences.

RESULTS

Stagnation in Danish life expectancy coincided with a shorter period of stagnation in lifespan inequality (1975-1990). The stagnation in life expectancy was mainly driven by increases in cancer and non-infectious respiratory mortality at higher ages (-.63 years) offsetting a reduction in cardiovascular and infant mortality (+ 1.52 years). Lifespan inequality stagnated because most causes of death did not show compression over the time period. Both these observations were consistent with higher smoking-related mortality in Danes born in 1919-1939. After 1995, life expectancy and lifespan equality increased in lockstep, but still lag behind Sweden, mainly due to infant mortality and cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Since 1960, Danish improvements in life expectancy and lifespan equality were halted by smoking-related mortality in those born 1919-1939, while also reductions in old-age cardiovascular mortality held back lifespan equality. The comparison with Sweden suggests that Denmark can reduce inequality in lifespans and increase life expectancy through a consistent policy target: reducing cancer and infant mortality.

Do Death Certificates Underestimate the Burden of Rare Diseases? The Example of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Mortality, Sweden, 2001-2013

OBJECTIVES

Mortality due to rare diseases, which are substantial sources of premature mortality, is underreported in mortality studies. The objective of this study was to determine the completeness of reporting systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) as a cause of death.

METHODS

In 2017, we linked data on a Swedish population-based cohort (the Swedish Lupus Linkage, 2001-2013) comprising people with SLE (n = 8560) and their matched general population comparators (n = 37 717) to data from the Cause of Death Register. We reviewed death records of deceased people from the cohort (n = 5110) and extracted data on patient demographic characteristics and causes of death. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for not reporting SLE as a cause of death by using multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Of 1802 deaths among SLE patients in the study, 1071 (59%) did not have SLE reported on their death records. Most SLE decedents were aged 75-84 at death (n = 584, 32%), female (n = 1462, 81%), and born in Nordic countries (n = 1730, 96%). Decedents aged ≥85 at death were more likely to have SLE not reported on their death records than were decedents aged <50 (OR = 2.34; 95% CI, 1.48-3.68). Having renal failure listed as a cause of death decreased the likelihood of SLE not being reported on the death record (OR = 0.54; 95% CI, 0.40-0.73), whereas having cancer listed as a cause of death increased this likelihood (OR = 2.39; 95% CI, 1.85-3.07).

CONCLUSIONS

SLE was greatly underreported as a cause of mortality on death records of SLE patients, particularly in older decedents and those with cancer, thereby underestimating the true burden of this disease. Public health resources need to focus on improving the recording of rare diseases in order to enhance the epidemiological utility of mortality data.

Do Death Certificates Underestimate the Burden of Rare Diseases? The Example of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Mortality, Sweden, 2001-2013

OBJECTIVES

Mortality due to rare diseases, which are substantial sources of premature mortality, is underreported in mortality studies. The objective of this study was to determine the completeness of reporting systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) as a cause of death.

METHODS

In 2017, we linked data on a Swedish population-based cohort (the Swedish Lupus Linkage, 2001-2013) comprising people with SLE (n = 8560) and their matched general population comparators (n = 37 717) to data from the Cause of Death Register. We reviewed death records of deceased people from the cohort (n = 5110) and extracted data on patient demographic characteristics and causes of death. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for not reporting SLE as a cause of death by using multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Of 1802 deaths among SLE patients in the study, 1071 (59%) did not have SLE reported on their death records. Most SLE decedents were aged 75-84 at death (n = 584, 32%), female (n = 1462, 81%), and born in Nordic countries (n = 1730, 96%). Decedents aged ≥85 at death were more likely to have SLE not reported on their death records than were decedents aged <50 (OR = 2.34; 95% CI, 1.48-3.68). Having renal failure listed as a cause of death decreased the likelihood of SLE not being reported on the death record (OR = 0.54; 95% CI, 0.40-0.73), whereas having cancer listed as a cause of death increased this likelihood (OR = 2.39; 95% CI, 1.85-3.07).

CONCLUSIONS

SLE was greatly underreported as a cause of mortality on death records of SLE patients, particularly in older decedents and those with cancer, thereby underestimating the true burden of this disease. Public health resources need to focus on improving the recording of rare diseases in order to enhance the epidemiological utility of mortality data.

Understanding the rapid increase in life expectancy in shanghai, China: a population-based retrospective analysis

Background

Life expectancy at birth (LE) is a comprehensive measure that accounts for age-specific death rates in a population. Shanghai has ranked first in LE in China mainland for decades. Understanding the reasons behind its sustained gain in LE provides a good reflection of many other cities in China. The aim of this study is intended to explore temporal trend in age- and cause-specific gains in LE in Shanghai and the probable reasons lay behind.

Methods

Joinpoint regression was applied to evaluate temporal trend in LE and the long time span was then divided accordingly. Contributions to change in LE (1973–2015) were decomposed by age and cause at corresponding periods.

Results

LE in Shanghai could be divided into four phases ie., descent (1973–1976), recovery (1976–1998), rapid rise (1998–2004) and slow rise (2004–2015). The growing LE was mainly attributed to reductions in mortality from the elderly populations and chronic diseases such as cerebrovascular disease, chronic lower respiratory disease, and gastrointestinal cancers (stomach, liver and esophageal cancer).

Conclusions

The four-decade sustained gain in LE in Shanghai is due to the reductions in mortality from the elderly and chronic diseases such as cerebrovascular disease, chronic lower respiratory disease, and gastrointestinal cancers. Further growth momentum still comes from the elderly population.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-018-5112-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

How long do centenarians survive? Life expectancy and maximum lifespan

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to explore the pattern of mortality above the age of 100 years. In particular, we aimed to examine whether Scandinavian data support the theory that mortality reaches a plateau at particularly old ages. Whether the maximum length of life increases with time was also investigated.

METHODS

The analyses were based on individual level data on all Swedish and Danish centenarians born from 1870 to 1901; in total 3006 men and 10 963 women were included. Birth cohort-specific probabilities of dying were calculated. Exact ages were used for calculations of maximum length of life. Whether maximum age changed over time was analysed taking into account increases in cohort size.

RESULTS

The results confirm that there has not been any improvement in mortality amongst centenarians in the past 30 years and that the current rise in life expectancy is driven by reductions in mortality below the age of 100 years. The death risks seem to reach a plateau of around 50% at the age 103 years for men and 107 years for women. Despite the rising life expectancy, the maximum age does not appear to increase, in particular after accounting for the increasing number of individuals of advanced age.

CONCLUSION

Mortality amongst centenarians is not changing despite improvements at younger ages. An extension of the maximum lifespan and a sizeable extension of life expectancy both require reductions in mortality above the age of 100 years.

A 9-year prospective population-based study on the association between the APOE*E4 allele and late-life depression in Sweden

BACKGROUND

It is well established that there is an association between the apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 allele (APOE*E4) and Alzheimer's disease. It is less clear whether there is also an association with geriatric depression. We examined the relationship between APOE*E4 and 5-year incidence of depression in a Swedish population-based sample of older adults without dementia and excluding older adults who developed dementia within 4 years after the diagnosis of depression.

METHODS

In 2000-2001, 839 women and men (age range, 70-92 years; mean age, 73.8 years) free from dementia and depression underwent neuropsychiatric and neuropsychological examinations and genotyping of the APOE*E4 allele. Follow-up evaluations were conducted in 2005 and 2009.The association between APOE*E4 allele and 5-year incidence of depression was examined, while avoiding possible confounding effects of clinical or preclinical dementia by excluding participants who had dementia at study entry, subsequently developed dementia during the 9-year follow-up period, or had a decline in Mini-Mental State Examination score of ≥5 points.

RESULTS

Among subjects without depression at study entry and without dementia or significant cognitive decline during the subsequent 9 years, APOE*E4 was prospectively associated with more severe depressive symptoms (b = 1.56, p = .007), incident minor depression (odds ratio = 1.99 [confidence interval = 1.11-3.55], p = .020), and any depression (odds ratio = 1.75 [confidence interval = 1.01-3.03], p = .048).

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of the APOE*E4 allele predicted future depression in this Swedish population study, even after excluding depressed individuals who later developed dementia, suggesting that the APOE*E4 allele could potentially identify people at high risk for clinically significant depression.