Range-wide latitudinal and elevational temperature gradients for the world's terrestrial birds: implications under global climate change

Topography-driven microclimate gradients shape forest structure, diversity, and composition in a temperate refugial forest

Macroclimate drives vegetation distributions, but fine-scale topographic variation can generate microclimate refugia for plant persistence in unsuitable areas. However, we lack quantitative descriptions of topography-driven microclimatic variation and how it shapes forest structure, diversity, and composition. We hypothesized that topographic variation and the presence of the forest overstory cause spatiotemporal microclimate variation affecting tree performance, causing forest structure, diversity, and composition to vary with topography and microclimate, and topography and the overstory to buffer microclimate. In a 20.2-ha inventory plot in the North American Great Plains, we censused woody stems ≥1 cm in diameter and collected detailed topographic and microclimatic data. Across 59-m of elevation, microclimate covaried with topography to create a sharp desiccation gradient, and topography and the overstory buffered understory microclimate. The magnitude of microclimatic variation mirrored that of regional-scale variation: with increasing elevation, there was a decrease in soil moisture corresponding to the difference across ~2.1° of longitude along the east-to-west aridity gradient and an increase in air temperature corresponding to the difference across ~2.7° of latitude along the north-to-south gradient. More complex forest structure and higher diversity occurred in moister, less-exposed habitats, and species occupied distinct topographic niches. Our study demonstrates how topographic and microclimatic gradients structure forests in putative climate-change refugia, by revealing ecological processes enabling populations to be maintained during periods of unfavorable macroclimate.

Putative climate adaptation in American pikas (Ochotona princeps) is associated with copy number variation across environmental gradients

Improved understanding of the genetic basis of adaptation to climate change is necessary for maintaining global biodiversity moving forward. Studies to date have largely focused on sequence variation, yet there is growing evidence that suggests that changes in genome structure may be an even more significant source of adaptive potential. The American pika (Ochotona princeps) is an alpine specialist that shows some evidence of adaptation to climate along elevational gradients, but previous work has been limited to single nucleotide polymorphism based analyses within a fraction of the species range. Here, we investigated the role of copy number variation underlying patterns of local adaptation in the American pika using genome-wide data previously collected across the entire species range. We identified 37-193 putative copy number variants (CNVs) associated with environmental variation (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation) within each of the six major American pika lineages, with patterns of divergence largely following elevational and latitudinal gradients. Genes associated (n = 158) with independent annotations across lineages, variables, and/or CNVs had functions related to mitochondrial structure/function, immune response, hypoxia, olfaction, and DNA repair. Some of these genes have been previously linked to putative high elevation and/or climate adaptation in other species, suggesting they may serve as important targets in future studies.

Significant shifts in latitudinal optima of North American birds

Changes in climate can alter environmental conditions faster than most species can adapt. A prediction under a warming climate is that species will shift their distributions poleward through time. While many studies focus on range shifts, latitudinal shifts in species' optima can occur without detectable changes in their range. We quantified shifts in latitudinal optima for 209 North American bird species over the last 55 y. The latitudinal optimum (m) for each species in each year was estimated using a bespoke flexible non-linear zero-inflated model of abundance vs. latitude, and the annual shift in m through time was quantified. One-third (70) of the bird species showed a significant shift in their optimum. Overall, mean peak abundances of North American birds have shifted northward, on average, at a rate of 1.5 km per year (±0.58 SE), corresponding to a total distance moved of 82.5 km (±31.9 SE) over the last 55 y. Stronger poleward shifts at the continental scale were linked to key species' traits, including thermal optimum, habitat specialization, and territoriality. Shifts in the western region were larger and less variable than in the eastern region, and they were linked to species' thermal optimum, habitat density preference, and habitat specialization. Individual species' latitudinal shifts were most strongly linked to their estimated thermal optimum, clearly indicating a climate-driven response. Displacement of species from their historically optimal realized niches can have dramatic ecological consequences. Effective conservation must consider within-range abundance shifts. Areas currently deemed "optimal" are unlikely to remain so.

Impacts of anthropogenic climate change on tropical montane forests: an appraisal of the evidence

In spite of their small global area and restricted distributions, tropical montane forests (TMFs) are biodiversity hotspots and important ecosystem services providers, but are also highly vulnerable to climate change. To protect and preserve these ecosystems better, it is crucial to inform the design and implementation of conservation policies with the best available scientific evidence, and to identify knowledge gaps and future research needs. We conducted a systematic review and an appraisal of evidence quality to assess the impacts of climate change on TMFs. We identified several skews and shortcomings. Experimental study designs with controls and long-term (≥10 years) data sets provide the most reliable evidence, but were rare and gave an incomplete understanding of climate change impacts on TMFs. Most studies were based on predictive modelling approaches, short-term (<10 years) and cross-sectional study designs. Although these methods provide moderate to circumstantial evidence, they can advance our understanding on climate change effects. Current evidence suggests that increasing temperatures and rising cloud levels have caused distributional shifts (mainly upslope) of montane biota, leading to alterations in biodiversity and ecological functions. Neotropical TMFs were the best studied, thus the knowledge derived there can serve as a proxy for climate change responses in under-studied regions elsewhere. Most studies focused on vascular plants, birds, amphibians and insects, with other taxonomic groups poorly represented. Most ecological studies were conducted at species or community levels, with a marked paucity of genetic studies, limiting understanding of the adaptive capacity of TMF biota. We thus highlight the long-term need to widen the methodological, thematic and geographical scope of studies on TMFs under climate change to address these uncertainties. In the short term, however, in-depth research in well-studied regions and advances in computer modelling approaches offer the most reliable sources of information for expeditious conservation action for these threatened forests.

A biome-dependent distribution gradient of tree species range edges is strongly dictated by climate spatial heterogeneity

Understanding the causes of the arrest of species distributions has been a fundamental question in ecology and evolution. These questions are of particular interest for trees owing to their long lifespan and sessile nature. A surge in data availability evokes a macro-ecological analysis to determine the underlying forces limiting distributions. Here we analyse the spatial distribution of >3,600 major tree species to determine geographical areas of range-edge hotspots and find drivers for their arrest. We confirmed biome edges to be strong delineators of distributions. Importantly, we identified a stronger contribution of temperate than tropical biomes to range edges, adding strength to the notion that tropical areas are centres of radiation. We subsequently identified a strong association of range-edge hotspots with steep spatial climatic gradients. We linked spatial and temporal homogeneity and high potential evapotranspiration in the tropics as the strongest predictors of this phenomenon. We propose that the poleward migration of species in light of climate change might be hindered because of steep climatic gradients.

How much calcium to shell out? Eggshell calcium carbonate content is greater in birds with thinner shells, larger clutches and longer lifespans

The avian eggshell is a bio-ceramic structure that protects the embryo. It is composed almost entirely of calcium carbonate and a small amount of organic material. An optimal amount of calcium carbonate in the eggshell is essential for the embryo's development, yet how the ratio of calcium carbonate to organic matter varies between species has not been investigated. Calcium is a limiting resource for most birds, so its investment in their eggs should be optimized for a bird's life history. We measured the relative calcium carbonate content of eggshells in 222 bird species and tested hypotheses for how this trait has evolved with the life-history strategies of these species and other traits of their respective egg physiologies. We found that (i) eggshell calcium carbonate content was positively correlated with species having thinner eggshells and smaller than expected eggs relative to incubating parental mass, (ii) species with small mean clutch sizes had lower calcium carbonate content in their eggshells, and (iii) for species with larger clutch sizes, eggshell calcium carbonate content was negatively correlated with their mean lifespan. The pattern of lower eggshell calcium carbonate in longer lived, larger clutched birds suggests that calcium provision to the eggshell has long-term costs for the individual.

Afrotropical montane birds experience upslope shifts and range contractions along a fragmented elevational gradient in response to global warming

Global warming is predicted to result in upslope shifts in the elevational ranges of bird species in montane habitats. Yet few studies have examined changes over time in the elevational distribution of species along fragmented gradients in response to global warming. Here, we report on a resurvey of an understory bird community in the Usambara Mountains in Tanzania, along a forested elevational gradient that has been fragmented over the last 200 years. In 2019, we resurveyed seven sites, ranging in elevation from 360 m to 2110 m, that were originally surveyed between 1979 and 1981. We calculated differences in mean elevation and lower and upper range limits for 29 species between the two time periods and corrected for possible differences in elevation due to chance. Over four decades, we documented a significant mean upslope shift across species of 93 m. This shift was smaller than the 125 m expected shift due to local climate warming. Of the 29 focal species, 19 shifted upslope, eight downslope, and two remained unchanged. Mean upslope shifts in species were driven largely by contracting lower range limits which moved significantly upslope on average across species by 183 m, while upper range limits shifted non-significantly upslope by 72 m, leading to a mean range contraction of 114 m across species. Community composition of understory bird species also shifted over time, with current communities resembling communities found historically at lower elevations. Past forest fragmentation in combination with the limited gap-crossing ability of many tropical understory bird species are very likely important contributory factors to the observed asymmetrical shifts in lower and upper elevational range limits. Re-establishing forested linkages among the largest and closest forest fragments in the Eastern Arc Mountains are critical to permitting species to shift upslope and to reduce further elevational range contractions over time.

Community science validates climate suitability projections from ecological niche modeling

Climate change poses an intensifying threat to many bird species and projections of future climate suitability provide insight into how species may shift their distributions in response. Climate suitability is characterized using ecological niche models (ENMs), which correlate species occurrence data with current environmental covariates and project future distributions using the modeled relationships together with climate predictions. Despite their widespread adoption, ENMs rely on several assumptions that are rarely validated in situ and can be highly sensitive to modeling decisions, precluding their reliability in conservation decision-making. Using data from a novel, large-scale community science program, we developed dynamic occupancy models to validate near-term climate suitability projections for bluebirds and nuthatches in summer and winter. We estimated occupancy, colonization, and extinction dynamics across species' ranges in the United States in relation to projected climate suitability in the 2020s, and used a Gibbs variable selection approach to quantify evidence of species-climate relationships. We also included a Bird Conservation Region strata-level random effect to examine among-strata variation in occupancy that may be attributable to land-use and ecoregional differences. Across species and seasons, we found strong evidence that initial occupancy and colonization were positively related to 2020 climate suitability, illustrating an independent validation of projections from ENMs across a large geographic area. Random strata effects revealed that occupancy probabilities were generally higher than average in core areas and lower than average in peripheral areas of species' ranges, and served as a first step in identifying spatial patterns of occupancy from these community science data. Our findings lend much-needed support to the use of ENM projections for addressing questions about potential climate-induced changes in species' occupancy dynamics. More broadly, our work highlights the value of community scientist observations for ground-truthing projections from statistical models and for refining our understanding of the processes shaping species' distributions under a changing climate.

Interannual variation in season length is linked to strong co-gradient plasticity of phenology in a montane annual plant

Species are commonly distributed along latitudinal and elevational gradients of growing season length to which they might respond via phenotypic plasticity and/or adaptive genetic differentiation. However, the relative contribution of these processes and whether plasticity, if it occurs, facilitates expansion along season-length gradients remain unclear, but are important for predicting species fates during anthropogenic change. We quantified phenological trait variation in the montane annual Rhinanthus minor for three generations at 12 sites across 900 m of elevation in the Canadian Rocky Mountains and conducted a reciprocal transplant experiment for two generations among nine sites. We compared clines and interannual variation of phenological traits between natural and transplanted individuals. Season length declined by c. 37% along our elevational gradient and, as expected, plants emerged, reached first flower and made their first seed in c. 41% fewer growing degree days under shorter growing seasons. Although reciprocal transplants revealed modest genetic differentiation across elevation, trait clines primarily were due to striking co-gradient plasticity that paralleled genetic differentiation. Co-gradient plasticity likely evolved in response to considerable interannual variation in season length across our elevational transect, and should prepare R. minor to make adaptive changes to phenology in response to ongoing climate change predicted for montane environments.

Global change and the distributional dynamics of migratory bird populations wintering in Central America

Understanding the susceptibility of highly mobile taxa such as migratory birds to global change requires information on geographic patterns of occurrence across the annual cycle. Neotropical migrants that breed in North America and winter in Central America occur in high concentrations on their non-breeding grounds where they spend the majority of the year and where habitat loss has been associated with population declines. Here, we use eBird data to model weekly patterns of abundance and occurrence for 21 forest passerine species that winter in Central America. We estimate species' distributional dynamics across the annual cycle, which we use to determine how species are currently associated with public protected areas and projected changes in climate and land-use. The effects of global change on the non-breeding grounds is characterized by decreasing precipitation, especially during the summer, and the conversion of forest to cropland, grassland, or peri-urban. The effects of global change on the breeding grounds are characterized by increasing winter precipitation, higher temperatures, and the conversion of forest to peri-urban. During spring and autumn migration, species are projected to encounter higher temperatures, forests that have been converted to peri-urban, and increased precipitation during spring migration. Based on current distributional dynamics, susceptibility to global change is characterized by the loss of forested habitats on the non-breeding grounds, warming temperatures during migration and on the breeding grounds, and declining summer rainfall on the non-breeding grounds. Public protected areas with low and medium protection status are more prevalent on the non-breeding grounds, suggesting that management opportunities currently exist to mitigate near-term non-breeding habitat losses. These efforts would affect more individuals of more species during a longer period of the annual cycle, which may create additional opportunities for species to respond to changes in habitat or phenology that are likely to develop under climate change.

Horizontal and vertical species turnover in tropical birds in habitats with differing land use

Large tracts of tropical rainforests are being converted into intensive agricultural lands. Such anthropogenic disturbances are known to reduce species turnover across horizontal distances. But it is not known if they can also reduce species turnover across vertical distances (elevation), which have steeper climatic differences. We measured turnover in birds across horizontal and vertical sampling transects in three land-use types of Sri Lanka: protected forest, reserve buffer and intensive-agriculture, from 90 to 2100 m a.s.l. Bird turnover rates across horizontal distances were similar across all habitats, and much less than vertical turnover rates. Vertical turnover rates were not similar across habitats. Forest had higher turnover rates than the other two habitats for all bird species. Buffer and intensive-agriculture had similar turnover rates, even though buffer habitats were situated at the forest edge. Therefore, our results demonstrate the crucial importance of conserving primary forest across the full elevational range available.

Topographic heterogeneity and temperature amplitude explain species richness patterns of birds in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Large-scale patterns of species richness have gained much attention in recent years; however, the factors that drive high species richness are still controversial in local regions, especially in highly diversified montane regions. The Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and the surrounding mountains are biodiversity hot spots due to a high number of endemic montane species. Here, we explored the factors underlying this high level of diversity by studying the relationship between species richness and environmental variables. The richness patterns of 758 resident bird species were summarized at the scale of 1°×1° grid cell at different taxonomic levels (order, family, genus, and species) and in different taxonomic groups (Passeriformes, Galliformes, Falconiformes, and Columbiformes). These richness patterns were subsequently analyzed against habitat heterogeneity (topographical heterogeneity and land cover), temperature amplitude (annual temperature, annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality, and temperature seasonality) and a vegetation index (net primary productivity). Our results showed that the highest richness was found in the southeastern part of the QTP, the eastern Himalayas. The lowest richness was observed in the central plateau of the QTP. Topographical heterogeneity and temperature amplitude are the primary factors that explain overall patterns of species richness in the QTP, although the specific effect of each environmental variable varies between the different taxonomic groups depending on their own evolutionary histories and ecological requirements. High species richness in the southeastern QTP is mostly due to highly diversified habitat types and temperature zones along elevation gradients, whereas the low species richness in the central plateau of the QTP may be due to environmental and energetic constraints, as the central plateau is harsh environment.

Effect of Climate Change on Mediterranean Winter Ranges of Two Migratory Passerines

We studied the effect of climate change on the distribution of two insectivorous passerines (the meadow pipit Anthus pratensis and the chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita) in wintering grounds of the Western Mediterranean basin. In this region, precipitation and temperature can affect the distribution of these birds through direct (thermoregulation costs) or indirect effects (primary productivity). Thus, it can be postulated that projected climate changes in the region will affect the extent and suitability of their wintering grounds. We studied pipit and chiffchaff abundance in several hundred localities along a belt crossing Spain and Morocco and assessed the effects of climate and other geographical and habitat predictors on bird distribution. Multivariate analyses reported a positive effect of temperature on the present distribution of the two species, with an additional effect of precipitation on the meadow pipit. These climate variables were used with Maxent to model the occurrence probabilities of species using ring recoveries as presence data. Abundance and occupancy of the two species in the study localities adjusted to the distribution models, with more birds in sectors of high climate suitability. After validation, these models were used to forecast the distribution of climate suitability according to climate projections for 2050–2070 (temperature increase and precipitation reduction). Results show an expansion of climatically suitable sectors into the highlands by the effect of warming on the two species, and a retreat of the meadow pipit from southern sectors related to rain reduction. The predicted patterns show a mean increase in climate suitability for the two species due to the warming of the large highland expanses typical of the western Mediterranean.