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Schwantes AM, Parolari AJ, Swenson JJ, Johnson DM, Domec JC, Jackson RB, Pelak N, Porporato A. Accounting for landscape heterogeneity improves spatial predictions of tree vulnerability to drought. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2018; 220:132-146. [PMID: 29974958 DOI: 10.1111/nph.15274] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2018] [Accepted: 05/14/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
As climate change continues, forest vulnerability to droughts and heatwaves is increasing, but vulnerability varies regionally and locally through landscape position. Also, most models used in forecasting forest responses to heat and drought do not incorporate relevant spatial processes. In order to improve spatial predictions of tree vulnerability, we employed a nonlinear stochastic model of soil moisture dynamics accounting for landscape differences in aspect, topography and soils. Across a watershed in central Texas we modeled dynamic water stress for a dominant tree species, Juniperus ashei, and projected future dynamic water stress through the 21st century. Modeled dynamic water stress tracked spatial patterns of remotely sensed drought-induced canopy loss. Accuracy in predicting drought-impacted stands increased from 60%, accounting for spatially variable soil conditions, to 72% when also including lateral redistribution of water and radiation/temperature effects attributable to aspect. Our analysis also suggests that dynamic water stress will increase through the 21st century, with trees persisting at only selected microsites. Favorable microsites/refugia may exist across a landscape where trees can persist; however, if future droughts are too severe, the buffering capacity of an heterogeneous landscape could be overwhelmed. Incorporating spatial data will improve projections of future tree water stress and identification of potential resilient refugia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amanda M Schwantes
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Box 90328, Durham, NC, 27708, USA
| | - Anthony J Parolari
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University, Box 90287, Durham, NC, 27708, USA
- Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, Marquette University, Milwaukee, WI, 53233, USA
| | - Jennifer J Swenson
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Box 90328, Durham, NC, 27708, USA
| | - Daniel M Johnson
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Box 90328, Durham, NC, 27708, USA
- Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30602, USA
| | - Jean-Christophe Domec
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Box 90328, Durham, NC, 27708, USA
- Bordeaux Sciences Agro, UMR INRA-ISPA 1391, 33195, Gradignan, France
| | - Robert B Jackson
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Box 90328, Durham, NC, 27708, USA
- Department of Earth System Science, Woods Institute for the Environment and Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Y2E2 Building, 379B, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA
| | - Norman Pelak
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University, Box 90287, Durham, NC, 27708, USA
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08544, USA
| | - Amilcare Porporato
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University, Box 90287, Durham, NC, 27708, USA
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08544, USA
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Krapek J, Hennon PE, D'Amore DV, Buma B. Despite available habitat at range edge, yellow‐cedar migration is punctuated with a past pulse tied to colder conditions. DIVERS DISTRIB 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12630] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- John Krapek
- School of Natural Resources and Extension University of Alaska Fairbanks Fairbanks AK USA
| | | | | | - Brian Buma
- Department of Natural Sciences University of Alaska Southeast Juneau AK USA
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