Detecting forest response to droughts with global observations of vegetation water content

Droughts in a warming climate have become more common and more extreme, making understanding forest responses to water stress increasingly pressing. Analysis of water stress in trees has long focused on water potential in xylem and leaves, which influences stomatal closure and water flow through the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. At the same time, changes of vegetation water content (VWC) are linked to a range of tree responses, including fluxes of water and carbon, mortality, flammability, and more. Unlike water potential, which requires demanding in situ measurements, VWC can be retrieved from remote sensing measurements, particularly at microwave frequencies using radar and radiometry. Here, we highlight key frontiers through which VWC has the potential to significantly increase our understanding of forest responses to water stress. To validate remote sensing observations of VWC at landscape scale and to better relate them to data assimilation model parameters, we introduce an ecosystem-scale analog of the pressure-volume curve, the non-linear relationship between average leaf or branch water potential and water content commonly used in plant hydraulics. The sources of variability in these ecosystem-scale pressure-volume curves and their relationship to forest response to water stress are discussed. We further show to what extent diel, seasonal, and decadal dynamics of VWC reflect variations in different processes relating the tree response to water stress. VWC can also be used for inferring belowground conditions-which are difficult to impossible to observe directly. Lastly, we discuss how a dedicated geostationary spaceborne observational system for VWC, when combined with existing datasets, can capture diel and seasonal water dynamics to advance the science and applications of global forest vulnerability to future droughts.

Woody tissue photosynthesis delays drought stress in Populus tremula trees and maintains starch reserves in branch xylem tissues

Photosynthesis in woody tissues (P_wt ) is less sensitive to water shortage than in leaves, hence, P_wt might be a crucial carbon source to alleviate drought stress. To evaluate the impact of P_wt on tree drought tolerance, woody tissues of 4-m-tall drought-stressed Populus tremula trees were subjected to a light-exclusion treatment across the entire plant to inhibit P_wt . Xylem water potential (Ψ_xylem ), sap flow ( FH2O ), leaf net photosynthesis (P_n,l ), stem diameter variations (ΔD), in vivo acoustic emissions in stems (AEs) and nonstructural carbohydrate concentrations ([NSC]) were monitored to comprehensively assess water and carbon relations at whole-tree level. Under well-watered conditions, P_wt kept Ψ_xylem at a higher level, lowered FH2O and had no effect on [NSC]. Under drought, Ψ_xylem , FH2O and P_n,l in light-excluded trees rapidly decreased in concert with reductions in branch xylem starch concentration. Moreover, sub-daily patterns of ΔD, FH2O and AEs were strongly related, suggesting that in vivo AEs may inform not only about embolism events, but also about capacitive release and replenishment of stem water pools. Results highlight the importance of P_wt in maintaining xylem hydraulic integrity under drought conditions and in sustaining NSC pools to potentially limit increases in xylem tension.

Prediction of temperate broadleaf tree species mortality in arid limestone habitats with stomatal safety margins

A growing body of evidence highlights the occurrence of increased widespread tree mortality during climate change-associated severe droughts; however, in situ long-term drought experiments with multispecies communities for the prediction of tree mortality and exploration of related mechanisms are rather limited in natural environments. We conducted a 7-year afforestation trial with 20 drought-resistant broadleaf tree species in an arid limestone habitat in northern China, where the species displayed a broad range of survival rates. The stomatal and xylem hydraulic traits of all the species were measured. We found that species' stomatal closure points were strongly related to their xylem embolism resistance and xylem minimum water potential but not to their survival rates. Hydraulic failure of the vascular system appeared to be the main cause of tree mortality, and the stomatal safety margin was a better predictor of tree mortality than the traditionally considered xylem embolism resistance and hydraulic safety margin. We recommend the stomatal safety margin as the indicator for predicting drought-induced tree mortality and for selecting tree species in future forest restorations in arid regions.

Accounting for landscape heterogeneity improves spatial predictions of tree vulnerability to drought

As climate change continues, forest vulnerability to droughts and heatwaves is increasing, but vulnerability varies regionally and locally through landscape position. Also, most models used in forecasting forest responses to heat and drought do not incorporate relevant spatial processes. In order to improve spatial predictions of tree vulnerability, we employed a nonlinear stochastic model of soil moisture dynamics accounting for landscape differences in aspect, topography and soils. Across a watershed in central Texas we modeled dynamic water stress for a dominant tree species, Juniperus ashei, and projected future dynamic water stress through the 21^st century. Modeled dynamic water stress tracked spatial patterns of remotely sensed drought-induced canopy loss. Accuracy in predicting drought-impacted stands increased from 60%, accounting for spatially variable soil conditions, to 72% when also including lateral redistribution of water and radiation/temperature effects attributable to aspect. Our analysis also suggests that dynamic water stress will increase through the 21^st century, with trees persisting at only selected microsites. Favorable microsites/refugia may exist across a landscape where trees can persist; however, if future droughts are too severe, the buffering capacity of an heterogeneous landscape could be overwhelmed. Incorporating spatial data will improve projections of future tree water stress and identification of potential resilient refugia.

Dominant tree species are at risk from exaggerated drought under climate change

Predicting the consequences of climate change on forest systems is difficult because trees may display species-specific responses to exaggerated droughts that may not be reflected by the climatic envelope of their geographic range. Furthermore, few studies have examined the postdrought recovery potential of drought-susceptible tree species. This study develops a robust ranking of the drought susceptibility of 21 tree species based on their mortality after two droughts (1990s and 2000s) in the savanna of north-eastern Australia. Drought-induced mortality was positively related to species dominance, negatively related to the ratio of postdrought seedlings to adults and had no relationship to the magnitude of extreme drought within the species current geographic ranges. These results suggest that predicting the consequences of exaggerated drought on species' geographic ranges is difficult, but that dominant species like Eucalyptus with relatively slow rates of population recovery and dispersal are the most susceptible. The implications for savanna ecosystems are lower tree densities and basal area.

Thirst beats hunger - declining hydration during drought prevents carbon starvation in Norway spruce saplings

Drought-induced tree mortality results from an interaction of several mechanisms. Plant water and carbon relations are interdependent and assessments of their individual contributions are difficult. Because drought always affects both plant hydration and carbon assimilation, it is challenging to disentangle their concomitant effects on carbon balance and carbon translocation. Here, we report results of a manipulation experiment specifically designed to separate drought effects on carbon and water relations from those on carbon translocation. In a glasshouse experiment, we manipulated the carbon balance of Norway spruce saplings exposed to either drought or carbon starvation (CO2 withdrawal), or both treatments, and compared the dynamics of carbon exchange, allocation and storage in different tissues. Drought killed trees much faster than did carbon starvation. Storage C pools were not depleted at death for droughted trees as they were for starved, well-watered trees. Hence drought has a significant detrimental effect on a plant's ability to utilize stored carbon. Unless they can be transported to where they are needed, sufficient carbon reserves alone will not assure survival of a drought except under specific conditions, such as moderate drought, or in species that maintain plant water relations required for carbon re-mobilization.