Elicitation of expert prior opinion: application to the MYPAN trial in childhood polyarteritis nodosa

Assurance methods for designing a clinical trial with a delayed treatment effect

An assurance calculation is a Bayesian alternative to a power calculation. One may be performed to aid the planning of a clinical trial, specifically setting the sample size or to support decisions about whether or not to perform a study. Immuno-oncology is a rapidly evolving area in the development of anticancer drugs. A common phenomenon that arises in trials of such drugs is one of delayed treatment effects, that is, there is a delay in the separation of the survival curves. To calculate assurance for a trial in which a delayed treatment effect is likely to be present, uncertainty about key parameters needs to be considered. If uncertainty is not considered, the number of patients recruited may not be enough to ensure we have adequate statistical power to detect a clinically relevant treatment effect and the risk of an unsuccessful trial is increased. We present a new elicitation technique for when a delayed treatment effect is likely and show how to compute assurance using these elicited prior distributions. We provide an example to illustrate how this can be used in practice and develop open-source software to implement our methods. Our methodology has the potential to improve the success rate and efficiency of Phase III trials in immuno-oncology and for other treatments where a delayed treatment effect is expected to occur.

Bayesian sample size determination using commensurate priors to leverage preexperimental data

This paper develops Bayesian sample size formulae for experiments comparing two groups, where relevant preexperimental information from multiple sources can be incorporated in a robust prior to support both the design and analysis. We use commensurate predictive priors for borrowing of information and further place Gamma mixture priors on the precisions to account for preliminary belief about the pairwise (in)commensurability between parameters that underpin the historical and new experiments. Averaged over the probability space of the new experimental data, appropriate sample sizes are found according to criteria that control certain aspects of the posterior distribution, such as the coverage probability or length of a defined density region. Our Bayesian methodology can be applied to circumstances that compare two normal means, proportions, or event times. When nuisance parameters (such as variance) in the new experiment are unknown, a prior distribution can further be specified based on preexperimental data. Exact solutions are available based on most of the criteria considered for Bayesian sample size determination, while a search procedure is described in cases for which there are no closed-form expressions. We illustrate the application of our sample size formulae in the design of clinical trials, where pretrial information is available to be leveraged. Hypothetical data examples, motivated by a rare-disease trial with an elicited expert prior opinion, and a comprehensive performance evaluation of the proposed methodology are presented.

Bayesian adaptive design for pediatric clinical trials incorporating a community of prior beliefs

Background

Pediatric population presents several barriers for clinical trial design and analysis, including ethical constraints on the sample size and slow accrual rate. Bayesian adaptive design methods could be considered to address these challenges in pediatric clinical trials.

Methods

We developed an innovative Bayesian adaptive design method and demonstrated the approach as a re-design of a published phase III pediatric trial. The innovative design used early success criteria based on skeptical prior and early futility criteria based on enthusiastic prior extrapolated from a historical adult trial, and the early and late stopping boundaries were calibrated to ensure a one-sided type I error of 2.5%. We also constructed several alternative designs which incorporated only one type of prior belief and the same stopping boundaries. To identify a preferred design, we compared operating characteristics including power, expected trial size and trial duration for all the candidate adaptive designs via simulation when performing an increasing number of equally spaced interim analyses.

Results

When performing an increasing number of equally spaced interim analyses, the innovative Bayesian adaptive trial design incorporating both skeptical and enthusiastic priors at both interim and final analyses outperforms alternative designs which only consider one type of prior belief, because it allows more reduction in sample size and trial duration while still offering good trial design properties including controlled type I error rate and sufficient power.

Conclusions

Designing a Bayesian adaptive pediatric trial with both skeptical and enthusiastic priors can be an efficient and robust approach for early trial stopping, thus potentially saving time and money for trial conduction.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-022-01569-x.

Remote, real-time expert elicitation to determine the prior probability distribution for Bayesian sample size determination in international randomised controlled trials: Bronchiolitis in Infants Placebo Versus Epinephrine and Dexamethasone (BIPED) study

Background

Bayesian methods are increasing in popularity in clinical research. The design of Bayesian clinical trials requires a prior distribution, which can be elicited from experts. In diseases with international differences in management, the elicitation exercise should recruit internationally, making a face-to-face elicitation session expensive and more logistically challenging. Thus, we used a remote, real-time elicitation exercise to construct prior distributions. These elicited distributions were then used to determine the sample size of the Bronchiolitis in Infants with Placebo Versus Epinephrine and Dexamethasone (BIPED) study, an international randomised controlled trial in the Pediatric Emergency Research Network (PERN). The BIPED study aims to determine whether the combination of epinephrine and dexamethasone, compared to placebo, is effective in reducing hospital admission for infants presenting with bronchiolitis to the emergency department.

Methods

We developed a Web-based tool to support the elicitation of the probability of hospitalisation for infants with bronchiolitis. Experts participated in online workshops to specify their individual prior distributions, which were aggregated using the equal-weighted linear pooling method. Experts were then invited to provide their comments on the aggregated distribution. The average length criterion determined the BIPED sample size.

Results

Fifteen paediatric emergency medicine clinicians from Canada, the USA, Australia and New Zealand participated in three workshops to provide their elicited prior distributions. The mean elicited probability of admission for infants with bronchiolitis was slightly lower for those receiving epinephrine and dexamethasone compared to supportive care in the aggregate distribution. There were substantial differences in the individual beliefs but limited differences between North America and Australasia. From this aggregate distribution, a sample size of 410 patients per arm results in an average 95% credible interval length of less than 9% and a relative predictive power of 90%.

Conclusion

Remote, real-time expert elicitation is a feasible, useful and practical tool to determine a prior distribution for international randomised controlled trials. Bayesian methods can then determine the trial sample size using these elicited prior distributions. The ease and low cost of remote expert elicitation mean that this approach is suitable for future international randomised controlled trials.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.govNCT03567473

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13063-022-06240-w.

Bayesian sample size determination using commensurate priors to leverage pre-experimental data

This paper develops Bayesian sample size formulae for experiments comparing two groups, where relevant pre-experimental information from multiple sources can be incorporated in a robust prior to support both the design and analysis. We use commensurate predictive priors for borrowing of information, and further place Gamma mixture priors on the precisions to account for preliminary belief about the pairwise (in)commensurability between parameters that underpin the historical and new experiments. Averaged over the probability space of the new experimental data, appropriate sample sizes are found according to criteria that control certain aspects of the posterior distribution, such as the coverage probability or length of a defined density region. Our Bayesian methodology can be applied to circumstances that compare two normal means, proportions or event times. When nuisance parameters (such as variance) in the new experiment are unknown, a prior distribution can further be specified based on pre-experimental data. Exact solutions are available based on most of the criteria considered for Bayesian sample size determination, while a search procedure is described in cases for which there are no closed-form expressions. We illustrate the application of our sample size formulae in the design of clinical trials, where pre-trial information is available to be leveraged. Hypothetical data examples, motivated by a rare-disease trial with elicited expert prior opinion, and a comprehensive performance evaluation of the proposed methodology are presented.

Design and analysis features used in small population and rare disease trials: A targeted review

OBJECTIVE

Frequentist trials in Rare disease/small population trials often require unfeasibly large sample size to detect minimum clinically important differences. A targeted review was performed investigating what design and analysis methods these trials use when facing restricted recruitment.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Targeted Review searching EMBASE and MEDLINE for Phase II-IV RCTs reporting 'rare' disease or 'small population' within title or abstract, since 2009.

RESULTS

A total of 6,128 articles were screened with 64 trials eligible (4 Bayesian, 60 frequentist trials). Frequentists trials had planned power ranging 72-90% (median: 80%) but reported recruiting a mean of 6.6% below the planned sample size (n=38) [median 0%, IQR (-5%, 5%)], most used standard type 1 error (52 used 5% and 1 used 1%), and the average standardised effect was high (0.7) with 50% missing their assumed level. Of the 4 Bayesian trials, 3 used informed priors, 2 and 1 trials performed sensitivity analysis for the impact of priors on design and analysis respectively. Historical data, expert consensus, or both were used to construct informative priors. Bayesian trials required 30%-2400% less participants than using frequentist frameworks.

CONCLUSION

Bayesian trials required lower sample size through use of informative priors. Most frequentists didn't achieve their target sample size. Bayesian methods offer promising solutions for such trials but are underutilised.

Clinical effectiveness and safety of baricitinib for the treatment of juvenile idiopathic arthritis-associated uveitis or chronic anterior antinuclear antibody-positive uveitis: study protocol for an open-label, adalimumab active-controlled phase 3 clinical trial (JUVE-BRIGHT)

Background

Juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) is the most common pediatric rheumatic disease and the most common systemic disorder associated with uveitis in childhood. Uveitis is more common in JIA patients who are antinuclear antibody (ANA)-positive, have an early-onset disease, and have oligoarticular arthritis. JIA-associated uveitis (JIA-uveitis) is typically anterior, chronic, bilateral, nongranulomatous, and asymptomatic. Visual outcomes in JIA-uveitis have improved with current screening and treatment options; however, many patients fail to respond or do not achieve long-lasting remission. Baricitinib, an oral selective Janus kinase (JAK)1 and 2 inhibitor, may impact key cytokines implicated in the pathogenesis of JIA-uveitis or ANA-positive uveitis, representing a potential novel treatment option for disease management.

Methods

The multicenter, phase 3 trial will be conducted using an open-label Bayesian design. The study will enroll at least 20 and up to 40 patients aged 2 to <18 years with active JIA-uveitis or chronic ANA-positive uveitis without systemic features. At least 20 patients who have had an inadequate response or intolerance to methotrexate (MTX-IR), but not biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs), will be randomized (1:1) to open-label baricitinib or adalimumab. Approximately 20 additional patients who are MTX-IR or bDMARD inadequate responders will receive baricitinib treatment. Patients will be treated with once daily oral baricitinib at a fixed dose by age group (4 mg for patients aged ≥6 to <18 years and 2 mg for patients <6 years) or adalimumab (20 mg for patients weighing <30 kg and 40 mg for patients ≥30 kg) as a subcutaneous injection every 2 weeks. Treatment with stable background conventional synthetic DMARDs, low-dose corticosteroids, and/or nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs is allowed. The primary endpoint is the proportion of patients with response at week 24. Patients may continue treatment for up to 5 years.

Discussion

This is the first pediatric clinical trial to assess the clinical effectiveness and safety of a JAK inhibitor in JIA-uveitis or chronic ANA-positive uveitis. A novel Bayesian design is used to assess the efficacy of baricitinib, including an adalimumab reference arm, in this small patient population with unmet medical need.

Trial registration

EudraCT 2019-000119-10. Registered on January 4, 2019; NCT04088409. Registered on September 12, 2019

Prior elicitation of the efficacy and tolerability of Methotrexate and Mycophenolate Mofetil in Juvenile Localised Scleroderma

Background

Evidence is lacking for safe and effective treatments for juvenile localised scleroderma (JLS). Methotrexate (MTX) is commonly used first line and mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) second line, despite a limited evidence base. A head to head trial of these two medications would provide data on relative efficacy and tolerability. However, a frequentist approach is difficult to deliver in JLS, because of the numbers needed to sufficiently power a trial. A Bayesian approach could be considered.

Methods

An international consensus meeting was convened including an elicitation exercise where opinion was sought on the relative efficacy and tolerability of MTX compared to MMF to produce prior distributions for a future Bayesian trial. Secondary aims were to achieve consensus agreement on critical aspects of a future trial.

Results

An international group of 12 clinical experts participated. Opinion suggested superior efficacy and tolerability of MMF compared to MTX; where most likely value of efficacy of MMF was 0.70 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.34-0.90) and of MTX was 0.68 (95% CI 0.41-0.8). The most likely value of tolerability of MMF was 0.77 (95% CI 0.3-0.94) and of MTX was 0.62 (95% CI 0.32-0.84). The wider CI for MMF highlights that experts were less sure about relative efficacy and tolerability of MMF compared to MTX. Despite using a Bayesian approach, power calculations still produced a total sample size of 240 participants, reflecting the uncertainty amongst experts about the performance of MMF.

Conclusions

Key factors have been defined regarding the design of a future Bayesian approach clinical trial including elicitation of prior opinion of the efficacy and tolerability of MTX and MMF in JLS. Combining further efficacy data on MTX and MMF with prior opinion could potentially reduce the pre-trial uncertainty so that, when combined with smaller trial sample sizes a compelling evidence base is available.

Mycophenolate Mofetil Versus Cyclophosphamide for Remission Induction in Childhood Polyarteritis Nodosa: An Open-Label, Randomized, Bayesian Noninferiority Trial

OBJECTIVE

Cyclophosphamide (CYC) is used in clinical practice off-label for the induction of remission in childhood polyarteritis nodosa (PAN). Mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) might offer a less toxic alternative. This study was undertaken to explore the relative effectiveness of CYC and MMF treatment in a randomized controlled trial (RCT).

METHODS

This was an international, open-label, Bayesian RCT to investigate the relative effectiveness of CYC and MMF for remission induction in childhood PAN. Eleven patients with newly diagnosed childhood PAN were randomized (1:1) to receive MMF or intravenous CYC; all patients received the same glucocorticoid regimen. The primary end point was remission within 6 months while compliant with glucocorticoid taper. Bayesian distributions for remission rates were established a priori for MMF and CYC by experienced clinicians and updated to posterior distributions on trial completion.

RESULTS

Baseline disease activity and features were similar between the 2 treatment groups. The primary end point was met in 4 of 6 patients (67%) in the MMF group and 4 of 5 patients (80%) in the CYC group. Time to remission was shorter in the MMF group compared to the CYC group (median 7.1 weeks versus 17.6 weeks). No relapses occurred in either group within 18 months. Two serious infections were found to be likely linked to MMF treatment. Physical and psychosocial quality-of-life scores were superior in the MMF group compared to the CYC group at 6 months and 18 months. Combining the prior expert opinion with results from the present study provided posterior estimates of remission of 71% for MMF (90% credibility interval [90% CrI] 51, 83) and 75% for CYC (90% CrI 57, 86).

CONCLUSION

The present results, taken together with prior opinion, indicate that rates of remission induction in childhood PAN are similar with MMF treatment and CYC treatment, and MMF treatment might be associated with better health-related quality of life than CYC treatment.

Prior Elicitation for Use in Clinical Trial Design and Analysis: A Literature Review

Bayesian inference is increasingly popular in clinical trial design and analysis. The subjective knowledge derived from an expert elicitation procedure may be useful to define a prior probability distribution when no or limited data is available. This work aims to investigate the state-of-the-art Bayesian prior elicitation methods with a focus on clinical trial research. A literature search on the Current Index to Statistics (CIS), PubMed, and Web of Science (WOS) databases, considering “prior elicitation” as a search string, was run on 1 November 2020. Summary statistics and trend of publications over time were reported. Finally, a Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model was developed to recognise latent topics in the pertinent papers retrieved. A total of 460 documents pertinent to the Bayesian prior elicitation were identified. Of these, 213 (45.4%) were published in the “Probability and Statistics” area. A total of 42 articles pertain to clinical trial and the majority of them (81%) reports parametric techniques as elicitation method. The last decade has seen an increased interest in prior elicitation and the gap between theory and application getting narrower and narrower. Given the promising flexibility of non-parametric approaches to the experts’ elicitation, more efforts are needed to ensure their diffusion also in applied settings.

Childhood vasculitis

Vasculitis is a challenging disease for paediatricians. Certain vasculitides are quite common in children whereas others are much rarer compared with adults. The most common vasculitides in childhood are IgA-associated vasculitis (Henoch-Schönlein purpura) and Kawasaki disease, which are usually self-limiting vasculitides although children do develop complications as a result. We now have much better knowledge of how to manage these patients and prevent the deleterious complications. This review provides an up-to-date discussion on childhood vasculitides, including diagnosis, treatment and follow-up strategies, together with a comparison with vasculitides in adults. It also discusses the newly defined monogenic vasculitides that often present during early childhood.

Expert Elicitation for Latent Growth Curve Models: The Case of Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms Development in Children With Burn Injuries

Experts provide an alternative source of information to classical data collection methods such as surveys. They can provide additional insight into problems, supplement existing data, or provide insights when classical data collection is troublesome. In this paper, we explore the (dis)similarities between expert judgments and data collected by traditional data collection methods regarding the development of posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSSs) in children with burn injuries. By means of an elicitation procedure, the experts' domain expertise is formalized and represented in the form of probability distributions. The method is used to obtain beliefs from 14 experts, including nurses and psychologists. Those beliefs are contrasted with questionnaire data collected on the same issue. The individual and aggregated expert judgments are contrasted with the questionnaire data by means of Kullback-Leibler divergences. The aggregated judgments of the group that mainly includes psychologists resemble the questionnaire data more than almost all of the individual expert judgments.

Assurance for clinical trial design with normally distributed outcomes: Eliciting uncertainty about variances

The assurance method is growing in popularity in clinical trial planning. The method involves eliciting a prior distribution for the treatment effect, and then calculating the probability that a proposed trial will produce a "successful" outcome. For normally distributed observations, uncertainty about the variance of the normal distribution also needs to be accounted for, but there is little guidance in the literature on how to elicit a distribution for a variance parameter. We present a simple elicitation method, and illustrate how the elicited distribution is incorporated within an assurance calculation. We also consider multi-stage trials, where a decision to proceed with a larger trial will follow from the outcome of a smaller trial; we illustrate the role of the elicited distribution in assessing the information provided by a proposed smaller trial. Free software is available for implementing our methods.

European consensus-based recommendations for the diagnosis and treatment of rare paediatric vasculitides - the SHARE initiative

OBJECTIVES

The European initiative Single Hub and Access point for paediatric Rheumatology in Europe (SHARE) aimed to optimize care for children with rheumatic diseases. Systemic vasculitides are very rare in children. Consequently, despite recent advances, paediatric-specific information is sparse. The lack of evidence-based recommendations is an important, unmet need. This study aimed to provide recommendations for diagnosing and treating children with rare forms of childhood systemic vasculitis.

METHODS

Recommendations were developed by a consensus process in accordance with the European League Against Rheumatism standard operating procedures. A systematic literature review informed the recommendations, which were devised and evaluated by a panel of experts via an online survey, and two consensus meetings using nominal group technique. Recommendations were accepted when ⩾ 80% of experts agreed.

RESULTS

Ninety-three relevant articles were found, and 78 recommendations were accepted in the two consensus meetings. General, cross-cutting recommendations and disease-specific statements regarding the diagnosis and treatment of childhood-onset PAN, granulomatosis with polyangiitis, microscopic polyangiitis, eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis, and Takayasu arteritis are provided.

CONCLUSION

These Single Hub and Access point for paediatric Rheumatology in Europe recommendations were formulated through an evidence-based consensus process to support uniform, high-quality standard of care for children with rare forms of paediatric systemic vasculitis.

Practical help for specifying the target difference in sample size calculations for RCTs: the DELTA2 five-stage study, including a workshop

BACKGROUND

The randomised controlled trial is widely considered to be the gold standard study for comparing the effectiveness of health interventions. Central to its design is a calculation of the number of participants needed (the sample size) for the trial. The sample size is typically calculated by specifying the magnitude of the difference in the primary outcome between the intervention effects for the population of interest. This difference is called the 'target difference' and should be appropriate for the principal estimand of interest and determined by the primary aim of the study. The target difference between treatments should be considered realistic and/or important by one or more key stakeholder groups.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the report is to provide practical help on the choice of target difference used in the sample size calculation for a randomised controlled trial for researchers and funder representatives.

METHODS

The Difference ELicitation in TriAls2 (DELTA2) recommendations and advice were developed through a five-stage process, which included two literature reviews of existing funder guidance and recent methodological literature; a Delphi process to engage with a wider group of stakeholders; a 2-day workshop; and finalising the core document.

RESULTS

Advice is provided for definitive trials (Phase III/IV studies). Methods for choosing the target difference are reviewed. To aid those new to the topic, and to encourage better practice, 10 recommendations are made regarding choosing the target difference and undertaking a sample size calculation. Recommended reporting items for trial proposal, protocols and results papers under the conventional approach are also provided. Case studies reflecting different trial designs and covering different conditions are provided. Alternative trial designs and methods for choosing the sample size are also briefly considered.

CONCLUSIONS

Choosing an appropriate sample size is crucial if a study is to inform clinical practice. The number of patients recruited into the trial needs to be sufficient to answer the objectives; however, the number should not be higher than necessary to avoid unnecessary burden on patients and wasting precious resources. The choice of the target difference is a key part of this process under the conventional approach to sample size calculations. This document provides advice and recommendations to improve practice and reporting regarding this aspect of trial design. Future work could extend the work to address other less common approaches to the sample size calculations, particularly in terms of appropriate reporting items.

FUNDING

Funded by the Medical Research Council (MRC) UK and the National Institute for Health Research as part of the MRC-National Institute for Health Research Methodology Research programme.

Defining consensus opinion to develop randomised controlled trials in rare diseases using Bayesian design: An example of a proposed trial of adalimumab versus pamidronate for children with CNO/CRMO

Introduction

Chronic nonbacterial osteomyelitis (CNO) is a rare autoinflammatory bone disorder primarily affecting children and adolescents. It can lead to chronic pain, bony deformities and fractures. The pathophysiology of CNO is incompletely understood. Scientific evidence suggests dysregulated expression of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines to be centrally involved. Currently, treatment is largely based on retrospective observational studies and expert opinion. Treatment usually includes nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and/or glucocorticoids, followed by a range of drugs in unresponsive cases. While randomised clinical trials are lacking, retrospective and prospective non-controlled studies suggest effectiveness of TNF inhibitors and bisphosphonates. The objective of the Bayesian consensus meeting was to quantify prior expert opinion.

Methods

Twelve international CNO experts were randomly chosen to be invited to a Bayesian prior elicitation meeting.

Results

Results showed that a typical new patient treated with pamidronate would have an 84% chance of improvement in their pain score relative to baseline at 26 weeks and an 83% chance on adalimumab. Experts thought there was a 50% chance that a new typical patient would record a pain score of 28mm (pamidronate) to 30mm (adalimumab) or better at 26 weeks. There was a modest trend in prior opinion to indicate an advantage of pamidronate vs adalimumab, with a 68% prior chance that pamidronate is superior to adalimumab by some margin. However, it is clear that there is considerable uncertainty about the precise relative merits of the two treatments.

Conclusions

The rarity of CNO leads to challenges in conducting randomised controlled trials with sufficient power to provide a definitive outcome. We address this using a Bayesian design, and here describe the process and outcome of the elicitation exercise to establish expert prior opinion. This opinion will be tested in the planned prospective CNO study. The process for establishing expert consensus opinion in CNO will be helpful for developing studies in other rare paediatric diseases.

Bayesian sample size determination for phase IIA clinical trials using historical data and semi-parametric prior's elicitation

The Simon's two-stage design is the most commonly applied among multi-stage designs in phase IIA clinical trials. It combines the sample sizes at the two stages in order to minimize either the expected or the maximum sample size. When the uncertainty about pre-trial beliefs on the expected or desired response rate is high, a Bayesian alternative should be considered since it allows to deal with the entire distribution of the parameter of interest in a more natural way. In this setting, a crucial issue is how to construct a distribution from the available summaries to use as a clinical prior in a Bayesian design. In this work, we explore the Bayesian counterparts of the Simon's two-stage design based on the predictive version of the single threshold design. This design requires specifying two prior distributions: the analysis prior, which is used to compute the posterior probabilities, and the design prior, which is employed to obtain the prior predictive distribution. While the usual approach is to build beta priors for carrying out a conjugate analysis, we derived both the analysis and the design distributions through linear combinations of B-splines. The motivating example is the planning of the phase IIA two-stage trial on anti-HER2 DNA vaccine in breast cancer, where initial beliefs formed from elicited experts' opinions and historical data showed a high level of uncertainty. In a sample size determination problem, the impact of different priors is evaluated.

Epidemiology of Lower Extremity Deep Venous Thrombosis in Critically Ill Adolescents

OBJECTIVE

To determine the epidemiology of lower extremity deep venous thrombosis (DVT) in critically ill adolescents, which currently is unclear.

STUDY DESIGN

We performed a multicenter, prospective, cohort study. Adolescents aged 13-17 years who were admitted to 6 pediatric intensive care units and were anticipated to receive cardiopulmonary support for at least 48 hours were eligible, unless they were admitted with DVT or pulmonary embolism or were receiving or anticipated to receive therapeutic anticoagulation. While patients were in the unit, serial sonograms of the lower extremities were performed, then centrally adjudicated. Bayesian statistics were used to leverage the similarities between adults and adolescents.

RESULTS

A total of 88 adolescents were enrolled, from whom 184 lower extremity sonograms were performed. Of these, 9 adolescents developed DVT, with 1 having bilateral DVT. The frequency of DVT was 12.4% (95% credible interval: 6.1%, 20.1%), which ranged from 6.3% to 19.8% with a variability of 41.0% across units. All cases of DVT occurred in adolescents who received invasive mechanical ventilation (frequency: 16.5%; 95% credible interval 8.1%, 26.6%). DVT was associated with femoral central venous catheterization (OR 15.44; 95% credible interval 1.62, 69.05) and severe illness (OR for every 0.1 increase in risk of mortality 3.11; 95% credible interval 1.19, 6.85). DVT appears to be associated with prolonged days on support.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight the similarities and differences in the epidemiology of DVT between adults and adolescents. They support the conduct and inform the design of a trial of pharmacologic prophylaxis in critically ill adolescents.

Key issues in Rett syndrome: emotional, behavioural and autonomic dysregulation (EBAD) - a target for clinical trials

Complex neurodevelopmental disorders need multi-disciplinary treatment approaches for optimal care. The clinical effectiveness of treatments is limited in patients with rare genetic syndromes with multisystem morbidity. Emotional and behavioural dysregulation is common across many neurodevelopmental disorders. It can manifest in children across multiple diagnostic groups, including those on the autism spectrum and in rare genetic syndromes such as Rett Syndrome (RTT). There is, however a remarkable scarcity in the literature on the impact of the autonomic component on emotional and behavioural regulation in these disorders, and on the longer-term outcomes on disorder burden.RTT is a debilitating and often life-threatening disorder involving multiple overlapping physiological systems. Autonomic dysregulation otherwise known as dysautonomia is a cardinal feature of RTT characterised by an imbalance between the sympathetic and parasympathetic arms of the autonomic nervous system. Unlocking the autonomic component of emotional and behavioural dysregulation would be central in reducing the impairment seen in patients with RTT. In this vein, Emotional, Behavioural and Autonomic Dysregulation (EBAD) would be a useful construct to target for treatment which could mitigate burden and improve the quality of life of patients.RTT can be considered as a congenital dysautonomia and because EBAD can give rise to impairments occurring in multiple overlapping physiological systems, understanding these physiological responses arising out of EBAD would be a critical part to consider when planning treatment strategies and improving clinical outcomes in these patients. Biometric guided pharmacological and bio-feedback therapy for the behavioural and emotional aspects of the disorder offers an attracting perspective to manage EBAD in these patients. This can also allow for the stratification of patients into clinical trials and could ultimately help streamline the patient care pathway for optimal outcomes.The objectives of this review are to emphasise the key issues relating to the management of EBAD in patients with RTT, appraise clinical trials done in RTT from the perspective of autonomic physiology and to discuss the potential of EBAD as a target for clinical trials.

Using a meta-narrative literature review and focus groups with key stakeholders to identify perceived challenges and solutions for generating robust evidence on the effectiveness of treatments for rare diseases

INTRODUCTION

For many rare diseases, strong analytic study designs for evaluating the efficacy and effectiveness of interventions are challenging to implement because of small, geographically dispersed patient populations and underlying clinical heterogeneity. The objective of this study was to integrate perspectives from published literature and key rare disease stakeholders to better understand the perceived challenges and proposed methodological approaches to research on clinical interventions for rare diseases.

METHODS

We used a meta-narrative literature review and focus group interviews with key rare disease stakeholders to better understand the perceived challenges in generating and synthesizing treatment effectiveness evidence, and to describe various research methods for mitigating these identified challenges. Data from both components of this study were synthesized narratively according to research paradigms that emerged from our data.

RESULTS

Results from our meta-narrative literature review and focus group interviews revealed three fundamental challenges in generating robust treatment effectiveness evidence for rare diseases: i) limitations in recruiting a sufficient sample size to achieve planned statistical power; ii) inability to account for clinical heterogeneity and assess treatment effects across a clinical spectrum; and iii) reliance on short-term, surrogate outcomes whose clinical relevance is often unclear. We mapped these challenges and associated solutions to three interrelated research paradigms: i) explanatory evidence generation; ii) comparative effectiveness/pragmatic evidence generation; and iii) patient-oriented evidence generation. Within each research paradigm, numerous criticisms and potential solutions have been described with respect to overcoming these challenges from a research study design perspective.

CONCLUSIONS

Over time, discussions about clinical research for interventions for rare diseases have moved beyond methodological approaches to overcome challenges related to explanatory evidence generation, with increased recognition of the importance of pragmatic and patient-oriented evidence. Future directions for our work include developing a framework to expand current evidence synthesis practices to take into consideration many of the concepts discussed in this paper.

Better decision making in drug development through adoption of formal prior elicitation

With the continued increase in the use of Bayesian methods in drug development, there is a need for statisticians to have tools to develop robust and defensible informative prior distributions. Whilst relevant empirical data should, where possible, provide the basis for such priors, it is often the case that limitations in data and/or our understanding may preclude direct construction of a data-based prior. Formal expert elicitation methods are a key technique that can be used to determine priors in these situations. Within GlaxoSmithKline, we have adopted a structured approach to prior elicitation on the basis of the SHELF elicitation framework and routinely use this in conjunction with calculation of probability of success (assurance) of the next study(s) to inform internal decision making at key project milestones. The aim of this paper is to share our experiences of embedding the use of prior elicitation within a large pharmaceutical company, highlighting both the benefits and challenges of prior elicitation through a series of case studies. We have found that putting team beliefs into the shape of a quantitative probability distribution provides a firm anchor for all internal decision making, enabling teams to provide investment boards with formally appropriate estimates of the probability of trial success as well as robust plans for interim decision rules where appropriate. As an added benefit, the elicitation process provides transparency about the beliefs and risks of the potential medicine, ultimately enabling better portfolio and company-wide decision making.

Childhood systemic vasculitis

Vasculitides are characterized by inflammation of the vessel wall. Most of the vasculitides tend to occur in vessels of a specific size and certain target organs. In this review, we discuss each specific childhood vasculitis according to the latest Chapel Hill Consensus Conference 2012 nomenclature system and the Ankara 2008 classification criteria. We have also reviewed the clinical and laboratory characteristics and the recent treatment recommendations for the vasculitides we encounter in children.

Optic Neuropathy Secondary to Polyarteritis Nodosa, Case Report, and Diagnostic Challenges

Purpose

To describe a case of optic neuropathy as a primary manifestation of polyarteritis nodosa (PAN) and discuss diagnostic challenges.

Methods

Case report.

Results

A 41-year-old Hispanic man presented with a 2-day history of reduced visual acuity in his left eye. Physical examination revealed a complete visual field loss in the affected eye. Best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) in the left eye was hand motion, and fundus examination revealed a hyperemic optic disk with blurred margins, swelling, retinal folds, dilated veins, and normal size arteries. BCVA in the right eye was 20/20; no anomalies were seen during examination of the fundus. The patient was started on oral corticosteroids and once the diagnosis of PAN was made, cyclophosphamide was added to the treatment regimen. Six months later, the patient recovered his BCVA to 20/20 in his left eye.

Conclusion

Rarely does optic neuropathy present as a primary manifestation of PAN; nevertheless, it represents an ophthalmologic emergency that requires expeditious anti-inflammatory and immunosuppressive treatment to decrease the probability of permanent visual damage. Unfortunately, diagnosing PAN is challenging as it necessitates a high index of suspicion. In young male patients who present for the first time with diminished visual acuity, ophthalmologists become cornerstones in the suspicion of this diagnosis and should be responsible for continuing the study until a diagnosis is reached to ensure rapid commencement of immunosuppressive treatment.

[Hypertension and intermittent convulsions for one month in a school-age child]

Childhood polyarteritis nodosa (PAN) is a rare systemic vasculitis and the delayed diagnosis and treatment will cause high incidence of sequelae and high mortality. This article reports a girl with childhood PAN due to posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome (PRES). The girl aged ten years was admitted to the hospital due to hypertension and convulsions for one month. She had complaints of headache, vomiting, and blurred vision before convulsions. At six months before admission, a mass was observed in the neck. The physical examination showed that she had hypertension and no abnormal findings in the central nervous system. The brain magnetic resonance imaging manifested long T1 and T2 signals, high signal intensities on fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) images, and iso-signal intensity on diffusion-weighted imaging in the white matter of the left occipital lobe. Therefore, the cause of convulsions was considered as PRES. Mass biopsy suggested PAN and no findings supported tuberculosis. The right kidney atrophy was observed by ultrasound examination. Emission computed tomography of the kidney showed multiple vascular stenosis and no blood perfusion in the right kidney, so PAN was confirmed. These findings suggest that PAN should be considered in patients with vasculitis who had involvements of multiple systems after excluding common vasculitis, such as Kawasaki disease and Henoch-Schönlein purpura. Biopsy and angiography should be performed as early as possible for timely diagnosis and treatment.

Development of the Tailored Rett Intervention and Assessment Longitudinal (TRIAL) database and the Rett Evaluation of Symptoms and Treatments (REST) Questionnaire

INTRODUCTION

Rett syndrome (RTT) is a pervasive neurodevelopmental disorder that presents with deficits in brain functioning leading to language and learning regression, characteristic hand stereotypies and developmental delay. Different mutations in the gene implicated in RTT-methyl-CpG-binding protein 2 (MECP2) establishes RTT as a disorder with divergent symptomatology ranging from individuals with severe to milder phenotypes. A reliable and single multidimensional questionnaire is needed that can embrace all symptoms, and the relationships between them, and can map clinically meaningful data to symptomatology across the lifespan in patients with RTT. As part of the HealthTracker-based Tailored Rett Intervention and Assessment Longitudinal (TRIAL) database, the Rett Evaluation of Symptoms and Treatments (REST) Questionnaire will be able to marry with the physiological aspects of the disease obtained using wearable sensor technology, along with genetic and psychosocial data to stratify patients. Taken together, the web-based TRIAL database will empower clinicians and researchers with the confidence to delineate between different aspects of disorder symptomatology to streamline care pathways for individuals or for those patients entering clinical trials. This protocol describes the anticipated development of the REST questionnaire and the TRIAL database which links with the outcomes of the wearable sensor technology, and will serve as a barometer for longitudinal patient monitoring in patients with RTT.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The US Food and Drug Administration Guidance for Patient-Reported Outcome Measures will be used as a template to inform the methodology of the study. It will follow an iterative framework that will include item/concept identification, item/concept elicitation in parent/carer-mediated focus groups, expert clinician feedback, web-based presentation of questionnaires, initial scale development, instrument refinement and instrument validation.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has received favourable opinion from the National Health Service (NHS) Research Ethics Committee (REC): NHS Research Ethics Committee (REC)-London, Bromley Research Ethics Committee (reference: 15/LO/1772).

Therapeutic advances in the treatment of vasculitis

Considerable therapeutic advances for the treatment of vasculitis of the young have been made in the past 10 years, including the development of outcome measures that facilitate clinical trial design. Notably, these include: a recognition that some patients with Kawasaki Disease require corticosteroids as primary treatment combined with IVIG; implementation of rare disease trial design for polyarteritis nodosa to deliver the first randomised controlled trial for children; first clinical trials involving children for anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA) vasculitis; and identification of monogenic forms of vasculitis that provide an understanding of pathogenesis, thus facilitating more targeted treatment. Robust randomised controlled trials for Henoch Schönlein Purpura nephritis and Takayasu arteritis are needed; there is also an over-arching need for trials examining new agents that facilitate corticosteroid sparing, of particular importance in the paediatric population since glucocorticoid toxicity is a major concern.

Rett Syndrome: Crossing the Threshold to Clinical Translation

Lying at the intersection between neurobiology and epigenetics, Rett syndrome (RTT) has garnered intense interest in recent years, not only from a broad range of academic scientists, but also from the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries. In addition to the critical need for treatments for this devastating disorder, optimism for developing RTT treatments derives from a unique convergence of factors, including a known monogenic cause, reversibility of symptoms in preclinical models, a strong clinical research infrastructure highlighted by an NIH-funded natural history study and well-established clinics with significant patient populations. Here, we review recent advances in understanding the biology of RTT, particularly promising preclinical findings, lessons from past clinical trials, and critical elements of trial design for rare disorders.

Bayesian methods for the design and interpretation of clinical trials in very rare diseases

This paper considers the design and interpretation of clinical trials comparing treatments for conditions so rare that worldwide recruitment efforts are likely to yield total sample sizes of 50 or fewer, even when patients are recruited over several years. For such studies, the sample size needed to meet a conventional frequentist power requirement is clearly infeasible. Rather, the expectation of any such trial has to be limited to the generation of an improved understanding of treatment options. We propose a Bayesian approach for the conduct of rare-disease trials comparing an experimental treatment with a control where patient responses are classified as a success or failure. A systematic elicitation from clinicians of their beliefs concerning treatment efficacy is used to establish Bayesian priors for unknown model parameters. The process of determining the prior is described, including the possibility of formally considering results from related trials. As sample sizes are small, it is possible to compute all possible posterior distributions of the two success rates. A number of allocation ratios between the two treatment groups can be considered with a view to maximising the prior probability that the trial concludes recommending the new treatment when in fact it is non-inferior to control. Consideration of the extent to which opinion can be changed, even by data from the best feasible design, can help to determine whether such a trial is worthwhile.