Elucidating vaccine efficacy using a correlate of protection, demographics, and logistic regression

BACKGROUND

Vaccine efficacy (VE) assessed in a randomized controlled clinical trial can be affected by demographic, clinical, and other subject-specific characteristics evaluated as baseline covariates. Understanding the effect of covariates on efficacy is key to decisions by vaccine developers and public health authorities.

METHODS

This work evaluates the impact of including correlate of protection (CoP) data in logistic regression on its performance in identifying statistically and clinically significant covariates in settings typical for a vaccine phase 3 trial. The proposed approach uses CoP data and covariate data as predictors of clinical outcome (diseased versus non-diseased) and is compared to logistic regression (without CoP data) to relate vaccination status and covariate data to clinical outcome.

RESULTS

Clinical trial simulations, in which the true relationship between CoP data and clinical outcome probability is a sigmoid function, show that use of CoP data increases the positive predictive value for detection of a covariate effect. If the true relationship is characterized by a decreasing convex function, use of CoP data does not substantially change positive or negative predictive value. In either scenario, vaccine efficacy is estimated more precisely (i.e., confidence intervals are narrower) in covariate-defined subgroups if CoP data are used, implying that using CoP data increases the ability to determine clinical significance of baseline covariate effects on efficacy.

CONCLUSIONS

This study proposes and evaluates a novel approach for assessing baseline demographic covariates potentially affecting VE. Results show that the proposed approach can sensitively and specifically identify potentially important covariates and provides a method for evaluating their likely clinical significance in terms of predicted impact on vaccine efficacy. It shows further that inclusion of CoP data can enable more precise VE estimation, thus enhancing study power and/or efficiency and providing even better information to support health policy and development decisions.

Representation of Investigators by Gender Among Authors of Phase 3 Oncology Trials Worldwide

This cross-sectional study uses worldwide oncology trial data to examine the proportion of female investigators in each country and across all trials.

Characteristics and Research Waste Among Randomized Clinical Trials in Gastric Cancer

IMPORTANCE

The results of numerous large randomized clinical trials (RCTs) have changed clinical practice in gastric cancer (GC). However, research waste (ie, unpublished data, inadequate reporting, or avoidable design limitations) is still a major challenge for evidence-based medicine.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the characteristics of GC RCTs in the past 20 years and the presence of research waste and to explore potential targets for improvement.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this cross-sectional study of GC RCTs, ClinicalTrials.gov was searched for phase 3 or 4 RCTs registered from January 2000 to December 2019 using the keyword gastric cancer. Independent investigators undertook assessments and resolved discrepancies via consensus. Data were analyzed from August through December 2020.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcomes were descriptions of the characteristics of GC RCTs and the proportion of studies with signs of research waste. Research waste was defined as unpublished data, inadequate reporting, or avoidable design limitations. Publication status was determined by searching PubMed and Scopus databases. The adequacy of reporting was evaluated using the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) reporting guideline checklist. Avoidable design limitations were determined based on existing bias or lack of cited systematic literature reviews. In the analyses of research waste, 125 RCTs that ended after June 2016 without publication were excluded.

RESULTS

A total of 262 GC RCTs were included. The number of RCTs increased from 25 trials in 2000 to 2004 to 97 trials in 2015 to 2019, with a greater increase among RCTs of targeted therapy or immunotherapy, which increased from 0 trials in 2000 to 2004 to 36 trials in 2015 to 2019. The proportion of RCTs that were multicenter was higher in non-Asian regions than in Asian regions (50 of 71 RCTs [70.4%] vs 96 of 191 RCTs [50.3%]; P = .004). The analysis of research waste included 137 RCTs, of which 81 (59.1%) were published. Among published RCTs, 65 (80.2%) were judged to be adequately reported and 63 (77.8%) had avoidable design defects. Additionally, 119 RCTs (86.9%) had 1 or more features of research waste. Study settings that included blinding (odds ratio [OR], 0.56; 95% CI, 0.33-0.93; P = .03), a greater number of participants (ie, ≥200 participants; OR, 0.07; 95% CI, 0.01-0.51; P = .01), and external funding support (OR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.08-0.60; P = .004) were associated with lower odds of research waste. Additionally, 35 RCTs (49.3%) were referenced in guidelines, and 18 RCTs (22.2%) had their prospective data reused.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

To our knowledge, this study is the first to describe the characteristics of GC RCTs in the past 20 years, and it found a research waste burden, which may provide evidence for the development of rational RCTs and reduction of waste in the future.

The quality of clinical trials in neuroendocrine tumours; have we learnt from our mistakes? An evaluation of phase II and phase III clinical trials

The quality and reporting of neuroendocrine tumour (NET) clinical trials has previously been found to be heterogeneous impairing trial interpretability. We aimed to perform an updated review of the quality of phase II/III clinical trials in NET to assess if trial design and reporting have improved since 2011. We performed a PubMed search for phase II/III trials evaluating systemic anticancer therapies or liver-directed therapies published between 2011 and 2018. Data collected comprised administrative data, study population characteristics, endpoints, reporting and statistical design parameters, and results. Sixty studies were included (5218 patients): 50 phase II and 10 phase III trials. Study populations were heterogeneous: 52% of trials allowed tumours from various primary sites, 28% allowed both well- and poorly-differentiated tumour morphology or did not specify, and 57% did not report proliferative indices and/or tumour grade in ≥80% of the study population. Only 36% of trials mandated radiological disease progression on participant enrolment using a validated measure. Statistical design and primary endpoint were clearly defined in 67% and 88% of trials, respectively. Toxicity (88%), radiological response rate (85%) and progression-free survival/time to progression (82%) were well reported in a majority of trials, but health-related quality of life was included in the minority. Of the randomised trials (n = 11), study populations were more homogeneous and study design was more often clearly defined; however, only 45% mandated radiological progression at baseline as measured per Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumours, and reporting of health-related quality of life (55%) remained suboptimal. The design and reporting of NET clinical trials, predominantly of single-arm phase II trials, remains suboptimal and has not considerably improved over time despite the growth in our knowledge of the biology and unique characteristics of NETs. Higher quality is seen in randomised trials, although certain design and reporting elements remain inadequate in some studies. We must prioritise the design and conduct of NET clinical trials to effectively inform future research and guide practice change.

Comparison of insulin glargine 300 U/mL versus glargine 100 U/mL on glycemic control and hypoglycemic events in East Asian patients with type 2 diabetes: A Patient-level meta-analysis of phase 3 studies

AIMS

To evaluate efficacy and safety of Gla-300 with Gla-100 in a patient-level meta-analysis among large East Asian patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

METHODS

A patient level meta-analysis of three EDITION studies with similar design and endpoints were conducted over 6-months treatment period. The analysis included 547 patients treated with Gla-300 and 348 patients treated with Gla-100.

RESULTS

Over 6-month treatment period, mean change in HbA1c was similar for Gla-300 [Least square (LS) mean, (SE): -1.13 (0.05) % and Gla-100: -1.14 (0.05) %], showing non-inferiority of Gla-300 to Gla-100 (LS mean difference: 0.02%, 95% CI: -0.08 to 0.11). Gla-300 was associated with reduced risk of hypoglycemic event (confirmed ≤ 3.9 mmol/L or severe) vs Gla-100 at any time of day or at night (00:00-05:59 h). The event rates of hypoglycemia were consistently lower with Gla-300 than Gla-100. Severe hypoglycemia was rare in both treatment groups. Weight gain was minimal in both treatment groups.

CONCLUSION

Gla-300 provides comparable glycemic control to Gla-100 in East Asian patients with broad clinical spectrum of T2DM, with consistently less hypoglycemia at any time of the day and night.

Prevalence of control groups in cardiovascular clinical trials: An analysis of ClinicalTrials.gov from 2009 through 2019

Clinical trials provide the foundational evidence that guide many patient-facing decisions; however, the therapeutic effect and safety of an intervention is best evaluated when compared to a control group. We used ClinicalTrials.gov to describe the proportion of registered Phase III and IV cardiovascular clinical trials that contain a control group from 2009 through 2019. Of 1,677 registered Phase III and IV cardiovascular clinical trials, 81.2% contain a control group, and the annual prevalence remained unchanged between 2009 and 2019.

Characteristics of Brazilian clinical studies registered in ClinicalTrials.gov between 2010 and 2020

AIM

Evidence-based medicine uses high-quality methods, such as randomization and blinding prcedures, to support and inform clinical practice. The investigation of trials registered in clinical research databases may help understand the main characteristics of studies conducted in countries, such as Brazil. This study aimed to investigate the characteristics of Brazilian clinical trials registered in ClinicalTrials.gov in the last decade.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study performed in ClinicalTrials.gov database with clinical studies registered in Brazil between 2010 and 2020. A search was conducted in the database considering this period using filters for country (Brazil), start date (01 January 2010) and end date (date of the search: 07 May 2020). Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the studies. All analyses were conducted on Stata 14.2.

RESULTS

In total, 5368 studies were retrieved, which were mostly randomized (93.2%), blinded (63.2%), Phase III (48.7%) interventional studies (89.9%) with small sample sizes (57.2%) conducted with adults (93.0%) using drugs (42.7%) with a treatment purpose (77.3%), with funding from institutions other than the industry, the NIH, and the US Federal (71.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of Brazilian clinical studies used blinding and randomization procedures in the last 10 years. However, the predominance of trials with small sample sizes and with a focus on adult patients indicate the need of larger studies conducted with the pediatric population.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Bevacizumab in First-Line Metastatic Breast Cancer: Lessons for Research and Regulatory Enterprises

BACKGROUND

The US Food and Drug Administration's accelerated approval and later withdrawal of bevacizumab in patients with metastatic breast cancer (mBC) is a seminal case for ongoing debates about the validity of using progression-free survival (PFS) as a surrogate measure for overall survival (OS) in cancer drug approvals. We systematically reviewed and meta-analyzed the evidence around bevacizumab's regulatory approval and withdrawal in mBC.

METHODS

We searched for all published phase II or III clinical trials testing bevacizumab as a first-line therapy for patients with mBC. Data were extracted on trial demographics, interventions, and outcomes. Descriptive analysis was stratified by whether the trial was initiated before, during, or after the accelerated approval. We used a cumulative random-effects meta-analysis to assess the evolution of evidence of the effect of bevacizumab on PFS and OS. We estimated the association between the trial-level PFS and OS effect using a nonlinear mixed-regression model.

RESULTS

Fifty-two studies were included. Trial activity dramatically dropped after the accelerated approval was withdrawn. Eight clinical trials reported hazard ratios (hazard ratios) and were meta-analyzed. The cumulative hazard ratio for PFS was 0.72 (95% CI = 0.65 to 0.79), and the cumulative hazard ratio for OS was 0.90 (95% CI = 0.80 to 1.01). The regression model showed a statistically nonsignificant association between PFS benefit and OS benefit (β = 0.43, SE = 0.81).

CONCLUSION

The US Food and Drug Administration's decision-making in this case was consistent with the evolving state of evidence. However, the fact that seven clinical trials are insufficient to conclude validity (or lack thereof) for a trial-level surrogate suggests that it would be more efficient to conduct trials using the more clinically meaningful endpoints.

An Integrated Analysis of the Safety of Tofacitinib in Psoriatic Arthritis across Phase III and Long-Term Extension Studies with Comparison to Real-World Observational Data

INTRODUCTION

Tofacitinib is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of psoriatic arthritis (PsA).

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to compare the incidence rates (IRs) of adverse events in tofacitinib clinical trials and real-world observational data for alternative treatments.

METHODS

The tofacitinib "dose-comparison cohort" included months 0-12 of two phase III studies (tofacitinib 5 [n = 238] and 10 [n = 236] mg twice daily [BID]); the "all-tofacitinib comparison cohort" (n = 783) included two phase III and one ongoing long-term extension study (data cutoff May 2016). An "observational comparison cohort" (n = 5799) comprised patients initiating a conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD), biologic DMARD, or apremilast in the US Truven MarketScan database from 2010 to 2015. IRs for serious infections (SIEs; requiring hospitalization), herpes zoster (HZ), malignancies (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer [NMSC]), NMSC, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) across cohorts were qualitatively compared.

RESULTS

IRs (patients with events/100 patient-years) for SIEs were similar between the tofacitinib dose-comparison cohort (5 mg BID: 1.3; 10 mg BID: 2.0) and the observational comparison cohort (1.1-7.9; treatment dependent). The tofacitinib dose-comparison cohort had a higher rate of HZ (5 mg BID: 2.0; 10 mg BID: 2.7) than did the observational comparison cohort (0.8-2.0). IRs for NMSC were generally lower in the all-tofacitinib comparison cohort (0.5) than in the observational comparison cohort (0.4-6.0). IRs for MACE, malignancies excluding NMSC, and NMSC were similar between cohorts.

CONCLUSION

In patients with PsA, tofacitinib had a safety profile similar to that of other systemic therapies in real-world settings, except for the risk of HZ, a known risk of tofacitinib.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01877668; NCT01882439; NCT01976364.

Dissemination of trial results to participants in phase III pragmatic clinical trials: an audit of trial investigators intentions

OBJECTIVE

To determine the proportion of Phase III clinical trials given a favourable opinion by a research ethics committee in the UK that provided trial results to those who participated.

DESIGN

Audit of records.

SETTING

Phase III clinical trials registered on the UK's research permissions system (Integrated Research Application System) between the 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2017.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Proportion of trial investigators that intended to provide results to trial participants compared against what trials reported to ethics committees at the end of study.

RESULTS

Out of 1404 Phase III trials, 87.7% (n=1231) trials stated they intended to disseminate results to participants while 12.3% (n=173) trials stated they would not. Out of these 1231 trials, 18.8% (n=231) trials intended to actively communicate trial results or a means of accessing results to their participants, a further 80.5% (n=991) reported passive intention to disseminate and for the remainder (n=9) the process was unclear. Of the 370 End of Study reports (30% of all included studies) that could be accessed 10 (2.7%) explicitly mentioned activities related to dissemination of findings to participants with the majority (74.9%) having no mention and a further 22.4% of reports not being accessible. Of the 10 which did report dissemination of results to participants the majority (n=6) were through a lay summary or letter.

CONCLUSIONS

Reported intention to disseminate results to trial participants among trial investigators is high, however, reporting of feedback methods is lacking. In addition, mechanisms to ensure intentions to disseminate trial results are translated into actual behaviour need to be put in place to ensure those who participate in trials have the opportunity to find out about the results.

Quantifying treatment effects using the personalized chance of longer survival

The hazard ratio is widely used to measure or to summarize the magnitude of treatment effects, but it is justifiably difficult to interpret in a meaningful way to patients and perhaps for clinicians as well. In addition, it is most meaningful when the hazard functions are approximately proportional over time. We propose a new measure, termed personalized chance of longer survival. The measure, which quantifies the probability of living longer with one treatment over the another, accounts for individualized characteristics to directly address personalized treatment effects. Hence, the measure is patient focused, which can be used to evaluate subgroups easily. We believe it is intuitive to understand and clinically interpretable in the presence of nonproportionality. Furthermore, because it estimates the probability of living longer by some fixed amount of time, it encodes the probabilistic part of treatment effect estimation. We provide nonparametric estimation and inference procedures that can accommodate censored survival outcomes. We conduct extensive simulation studies, which characterize performance of the proposed method, and data from a large randomized Phase III clinical trial (SWOG S0819) are analyzed using the proposed method.

Advances in the treatment of diabetic retinopathy

As the diabetes epidemic in the United States continues to worsen, so too does the prevalence of diabetic retinopathy (DR). DR is divided broadly into nonproliferative and proliferative stages, with or without vision-threatening macular edema. Progression to proliferative DR is associated with vision loss that is often irreparable, and a rapid decline in health-related quality of life. Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)-A is upregulated in the diabetic eye, and has been identified as a key driver of DR pathogenesis. With this perspective, we review the published phase III clinical trial data of anti-VEGF therapies approved for the treatment of DR in the United States. Using the Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study Diabetic Retinopathy Severity Scale, in which an improvement of ≥2 steps is considered clinically significant, approximately one-third of patients with DR and macular edema experience this level of improvement after 1 year of treatment with either ranibizumab or aflibercept. The rates of clinically significant DR improvement with ranibizumab could be twice that in the subgroup of patients with moderately severe or severe nonproliferative DR and macular edema. These clinical trial data indicate that intraocular inhibition of VEGF is a rational approach for the management of DR.

Pooled Analysis of external-beam RADiotherapy parameters in phase II and phase III trials in radiochemotherapy in Anal Cancer (PARADAC)

PURPOSE

Concomitant external-beam radiochemotherapy (5-fluorouracil-mitomycin C) has become the standard of care in anal cancer since the '90s. A pooled analysis of individual patient data from 7 major trials was performed quantifying the effect of radiation therapy (RT)-related parameters on the outcome of patients with anal cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Pooling databases from combined modality trials, the impact of RT parameters (total dose, gap duration, OTT: overall treatment time) on outcome including locoregional failure (LRF), 5-year progression free survival (PFS) and toxicities were investigated. Individual patient data were received for 10/13 identified published studies conducted from 1987 to 2008 (n = 3031). A Cox regression model was used (landmark = 3 months after RT for first follow-up).

RESULTS

After data inspection indicating severe heterogeneity between trials, only 1343 patients from 7/10 studies received were analysed (the most recent ones, since 1994; median follow-up = 4.1 years). A higher overall 5-year LRF rate [22.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 22.3-27.3%)] significantly correlated with longer OTT (p = 0.03), larger tumour size (p < 0.001) and male gender (p = 0.045). Although significant differences were not observed, subset analyses for LRF (dose range: 50.4-59 Gy) seemed to favour lower doses (p = 0.412), and when comparing a 2-week gap versus 3 (dose: 59.4 Gy), results suggested 3 weeks might be detrimental (p = 0.245). For a 2-week gap versus none (dose range: 55-59.4 Gy), no difference was observed (p = 0.89). Five-year PFS was 65.7% (95% CI: 62.8-68.5%). Higher PFS rates were observed in women (p < 0.001), smaller tumour sizes (p < 0.001) and shorter OTT (p = 0.025). Five-year overall survival [76.7% (95% CI: 73.9%-79.3%)] correlated positively with female gender (p < 0.001), small tumour size (p = 0.027) and short OTT (p = 0.026). Descriptive toxicity data are presented.

CONCLUSION

For patients receiving concurrent external-beam doublet chemoradiation, a longer OTT seems detrimental to outcome. Further trials involving modern techniques may better define optimal OTT and total dose.

Advanced pancreatic cancer clinical trials: The continued underrepresentation of older patients

OBJECTIVES

Older patients make up the majority of patients with pancreatic cancer, with a median age of 71 years at diagnosis. However, older patients are underrepresented in clinical trials in pancreatic cancer. This study investigates trends in age distribution of patients enrolled in clinical trials for advanced pancreatic cancer over time, and examines outcomes and toxicity in older patient subgroups from two studies conducted by Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group and American College of Radiology Imaging Network (ECOG-ACRIN) in this disease.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

16,042 patients from 38 phase III clinical trials for locally advanced or metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma published between 1997 and 2016 were identified and included in this analysis. Outcomes and toxicity by age were examined in two of the trials, ECOG-ACRIN trials E2297 and E6201, which included a total of 1146 patients.

RESULTS

The median age across the trials was 62.7 years; median ages for individual trials ranged from 57 years to 66 years. Weighted linear regression showed no significant change in median age over time. Combined analysis of the two ECOG-ACRIN trials demonstrated higher rates of fatigue, thrombocytopenia, and infection in those ≥75 years compared with those <75 years, but despite this showed no difference in overall survival (OS) or progression-free survival (PFS) (OS: 5.7 vs. 5.6 months and PFS: 2.8 vs 3.5 months).

CONCLUSIONS

Enrollment of older adults in phase III pancreatic cancer clinical trials has not increased over time, despite increasing number of older patients seen in clinic. Increased efforts are needed to enhance enrollment of older patients in clinical trials, and to promote trials specifically for older patients, in order to improve the evidence base for treating this patient population.

Older-Patient-Specific Cancer Trials: A Pooled Analysis of 2,277 Patients (A151715)

BACKGROUND

Less than 3% of older patients with cancer are enrolled in clinical trials. To reverse this underrepresentation, we compared older patients enrolled with older-patient-specific trials, defined as those designed for older patients with cancer, with those enrolled in age-unspecified trials.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We focused on individual patient data from those ≥65 years (younger patients excluded) and included all Alliance phase III adjuvant breast cancer trials from 1985-2012.

RESULTS

Among 2,277 patients, 1,014 had been enrolled to older-patient-specific and 1,263 to age-unspecified trials. The median age (range) in the older-patient-specific trials was 72 (65-89) years compared with 68 (65-84) years in the cohort of older patients in age-unspecified trials; p < .0001. A greater percentage of patients 75 years or older had enrolled in older-patient-specific trials compared with the cohort of age-unspecified trials: 26% versus 6% (p < .0001). Median overall survival (OS) was 12.8 years (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.9-13.7) and 13.5 years (95% CI, 12.9-14.1) for older-patient-specific and age-unspecified trials, respectively. OS was comparable (hazard ratio [HR], 1.08; 95% CI, 0.92-1.28; p = .34; referent: age-unspecified trials), after adjusting for age, estrogen receptor status, tumor size, and lymph node status. Similar findings were reached for recurrence-free survival. A lower rate of grade 3-5 adverse events (hematologic and nonhematologic) was reported in older-patient-specific trials (43% vs. 58%; p < .0001). Sensitivity analysis with chemotherapy only trials and subset analysis, adjusted for performance score, yielded similar OS results.

CONCLUSION

Older-patient-specific trials appear to address this underrepresentation of older patients with ostensibly comparable outcomes. Clinical trial identification numbers. NCT00003088 (CALGB 9741); NCT00024102 (CALGB 49907); NCT00068601 (CALGB 40401); NCT00005970 (NCCTG N9831) IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: This work underscores the importance of clinical trials that focus on the recruitment of older patients with cancer.

Association of Industry and Academic Sponsorship With Negative Phase 3 Oncology Trials and Reported Outcomes on Participant Survival: A Pooled Analysis

Importance

Only 3.4% of cancer drugs evaluated in phase 1 trials are approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, with most failing in phase 3 trials.

Objective

To investigate whether an association exists between the sponsorship and conduct of a negative phase 3 randomized clinical trial (RCT) investigating a cancer drug that lacked supporting phase 2 trial evidence for that drug, and to evaluate the association with overall survival among patients randomized to the experimental arm of such phase 3 trials.

Data Sources

Articles in the Lancet, Lancet Oncology, JAMA, JAMA Oncology, and Journal of Clinical Oncology published between January 2016 and June 2018 were searched.

Study Selection

Phase 3 RCTs of cancer drugs that failed to improve the primary end point were selected and any prior phase 2 trial of the same drug that supported the phase 3 trial was selected without any date or journal restrictions.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Percentages of negative phase 3 RCTs of cancer drugs that lacked any phase 2 evidence, had a negative phase 2 trial, or had a positive phase 2 study were extracted. Associations were assessed using the Fisher exact test. Pooled hazard ratios and 95% CIs for the overall survival of patients enrolled in these negative phase 3 RCTs were estimated using a random-effects model.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Negative phase 3 RCTs with a lack of a phase 2 trial or the presence of a negative phase 2 trial and overall survival of enrolled patients in the phase 3 RCTs.

Results

In this meta-epidemiological study, 67 negative phase 3 RCTs on cancer drugs, which included 64 600 patients, met the criteria of being sponsored by industry or academic groups, of which 42 RCTs (63%) were industry sponsored and the remaining 25 RCTs (37%) were academic. A phase 2 trial was not available for 28 of these trials (42%). Of 29 trials (43%) with a phase 2 trial available, 8 trials (28%) failed to meet their primary end points and 5 of those were industry sponsored. There was no association with overall survival for patients participating in these negative phase 3 RCTs (pooled hazard ratio, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.96-1.02). When the pooled analysis was limited to the 27 RCTs with a hazard ratio above 1.00, the overall pooled hazard ratio for overall survival was 1.11 (95% CI, 1.06-1.16). No association between having a negative or undefined phase 2 trial and trial sponsorship was found using the Fisher exact test.

Conclusions and Relevance

More than 40% of the negative phase 3 RCTs in oncology published in these 5 journals were conducted without a supporting phase 2 trial and were sponsored by both academia and industry. Running such trials not only may risk loss of resources owing to a failed trial but also may be associated with decreased patient survival. Further research and regulations in this area appear warranted.

Reduction in albuminuria with dapagliflozin cannot be predicted by baseline clinical characteristics or changes in most other risk markers

The sodium glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitor dapagliflozin has been shown to decrease urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR). This effect, however, varies among individual patients. In this study, we assessed the baseline characteristics and concurrent changes in other cardiovascular risk markers that might be associated with UACR response to dapagliflozin. A pooled analysis of 11 phase 3 randomized, controlled clinical trials was performed. UACR change from baseline after 24 weeks treatment with dapagliflozin 10 mg/d in 531 patients with type 2 diabetes and UACR ≥30 mg/g at baseline was determined. UACR response was defined as >30% reduction from baseline at 24 weeks, whereas UACR non-response was defined as ≤30% reduction at 24 weeks. A total of 288 (54%) patients were classified as responders and 243 (46%) as non-responders. At 24 weeks, the UACR-adjusted mean change from baseline was -71.2% and 25.9% in responders and non-responders, respectively. Baseline characteristics were similar between both groups. Changes in HbA1c and body weight were comparable across groups. Responders showed a numerically larger reduction in estimated glomerular filtration rate and systolic blood pressure versus non-responders. UACR reduction to dapagliflozin is an individual characteristic that cannot be predicted by baseline clinical features or changes in metabolic variables. Whether UACR response would improve long-term renal and cardiovascular outcomes remains to be determined.

A management system for randomized clinical trials: A novel way to supply medication

Background

Randomized controlled clinical trials require management effort, involving huge organizational, economic and informatics investments. Information technology offers opportunities to approach clinical trial methodology in new ways. However, there are only a few reports of computerized data and drug management systems.

Objective

This paper describes a novel software created specifically for the management of a randomized trial of diet and metformin in people with metabolic syndrome (the Me.Me.Me. trial).

Methods

Me.Me.Me. is an ongoing phase III randomized controlled trial in healthy people with metabolic syndrome to test the hypothesis that comprehensive lifestyle changes and/or metformin can prevent age-related chronic non-communicable diseases. To manage all the phases of the trial, we created a software which is a state pattern machine, user friendly, web-based, able to maintain the correct balance between randomization groups, and structured in various levels of security in order to guarantee the participant’s privacy and compliance with the study protocol. The software achieves budget savings: drug management is not based on patients’ packs, but on the actual need for drugs according to each participant’s “state”, with strict guidelines for the handling and supply of medication.

Results

The trial is ongoing and recruitment will close on August 31, 2018. To date, 11737 bottles of metformin/placebo have been dispensed to 1054 randomized participants, with drug savings of 29.5%.

Conclusions

A software which takes into account the “state” of participant might be a powerful resource for developing and managing clinical trials, helping avoid poor treatment allocation, and wastage of drugs and money.

Me.Me.Me. trial

EUDRACT no. 2012-005427-32.

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02960711.

A post-hoc pooled analysis to evaluate the risk of hypoglycaemia with insulin glargine 300 U/mL (Gla-300) versus 100 U/mL (Gla-100) over wider nocturnal windows in individuals with type 2 diabetes on a basal-only insulin regimen

The EDITION trials in type 2 diabetes demonstrated comparable glycaemic control with less nocturnal and anytime (24-hour) hypoglycaemia for insulin glargine 300 U/mL (Gla-300) versus glargine 100 U/mL (Gla-100). However, the predefined nocturnal window (0:00-5:59 AM) may not be the most relevant for clinical practice. This post-hoc analysis compared expansions of the predefined nocturnal interval during basal insulin treatment without prandial insulin. Patient-level, 6-month data, pooled from the EDITION 2 and 3 trials and the EDITION JP 2 trial (N = 1922, basal insulin only) were analysed. Accompanying hypoglycaemia during treatment with Gla-300 was compared to that during treatment with Gla-100, using predefined (0:00-5:59 AM) and expanded (10:00 PM-5:59 AM, 0:00-7:59 AM, 10:00 PM to pre-breakfast SMPG) windows. Confirmed (≤3.9 mmol/L [≤70 mg/dL]) or severe hypoglycaemic events were reported most frequently between 6:00 AM and 8:00 AM. Windows expanded beyond 6:00 AM included more events than other windows. The percentage of participants with at least one event was lower with Gla-300 than Gla-100 in all windows examined. Expanding the nocturnal interval allows better assessment of the risk of hypoglycaemia associated with basal insulin. The risk of nocturnal hypoglycaemia was consistently lower with Gla-300 versus Gla-100 using all four windows.

Development and validation of a prediction model for the probability of responding to placebo in antidepressant trials: a pooled analysis of individual patient data

BACKGROUND

Identifying potential placebo responders among apparent drug responders is critical to dissect drug-specific and nonspecific effects in depression.

OBJECTIVE

This project aimed to develop and test a prediction model for the probability of responding to placebo in antidepressant trials. Such a model will allow us to estimate the probability of placebo response among drug responders in antidepressants trials.

METHODS

We identified all placebo-controlled, double-blind randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of second generation antidepressants for major depressive disorder conducted in Japan and requested their individual patient data (IPD) to pharmaceutical companies. We obtained IPD (n=1493) from four phase II/III RCTs comparing mirtazapine, escitalopram, duloxetine, paroxetine and placebo. Out of 1493 participants in the four clinical trials, 440 participants allocated to placebo were included in the analyses. Our primary outcome was response, defined as 50% or greater reduction on Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression at study endpoint. We used multivariable logistic regression to develop a prediction model. All available candidate of predictor variables were tested through a backward variable selection and covariates were selected for the prediction model. The performance of the model was assessed by using Hosmer-Lemeshow test for calibration and the area under the ROC curve for discrimination.

FINDINGS

Placebo response rates differed between 31% and 59% (grand average: 43%) among four trials. Four variables were selected from all candidate variables and included in the final model: age at onset, age at baseline, bodily symptoms, and study-level difference. The final model performed satisfactorily in terms of calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.92) and discrimination (the area under the ROC curve (AUC): 0.70).

CONCLUSIONS

Our model is expected to help researchers discriminate individuals who are more likely to respond to placebo from those who are less likely so.

CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS

A larger sample and more precise individual participant information should be collected for better performance. Examination of external validity in independent datasets is warranted.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42017055912.

Alirocumab safety in people with and without diabetes mellitus: pooled data from 14 ODYSSEY trials

AIM

To evaluate the safety of the proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitor alirocumab according to diabetes mellitus status.

METHODS

Safety data from 14 trials (8-104-week durations) were analysed by treatment (alirocumab or placebo/ezetimibe control) and diabetes status (yes/no, defined by medical history). Adverse event data were assessed using descriptive statistics and Cox models.

RESULTS

Of the 5234 trial participants, 1554 (29.7%) had diabetes. Overall, treatment-emergent adverse events were similar in the alirocumab and control groups, except for more frequent local injection site reactions with alirocumab. Fewer people with diabetes experienced local injection site reactions [alirocumab, 3.5%, control, 2.9%; hazard ratio 1.24 (95% CI 0.68-2.25)] than those without diabetes [alirocumab, 7.5%; control, 4.9%; hazard ratio 1.51 (95% CI 1.13-2.01)]. Those with diabetes reported a greater number of serious adverse events (alirocumab, 19.4%; control, 19.7%) than those without diabetes (alirocumab, 14.5%; control, 13.5%). In people with diabetes, major adverse cardiac events occurred in 2.7% of alirocumab-treated people [control, 3.3%; hazard ratio 0.74 (95% CI 0.41-1.35)]; in those without diabetes, 1.8% of alirocumab-treated people had major adverse cardiac events [control, 1.7%; hazard ratio 0.95 (95% CI 0.56-1.62)]. Overall, no increase in HbA1c or fasting plasma glucose vs control treatment groups was observed, regardless of diabetes status.

CONCLUSION

This pooled analysis across 14 trials demonstrated similar safety for alirocumab vs control treatment, irrespective of diabetes status, except for more frequent local injection site reactions with alirocumab. People with diabetes reported fewer local injection site reactions than those without diabetes.

Achieving glycaemic control without weight gain, hypoglycaemia, or gastrointestinal adverse events in type 2 diabetes in the SUSTAIN clinical trial programme

AIM

To evaluate the potential for semaglutide to help people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) achieve glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) targets while avoiding unwanted outcomes, such as weight gain, hypoglycaemia and gastrointestinal (GI) side effects.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data from the phase IIIa SUSTAIN 1 to 5 clinical trials were analysed. Participants had inadequately controlled T2D and were drug-naïve (SUSTAIN 1) or on a range of background treatments (SUSTAIN 2 to 5). The main protocol-specified composite endpoint was the proportion of participants achieving HbA1c <53 mmol/mol (7.0%) at end of treatment (30 or 56 weeks) without weight gain and with no severe or blood glucose (BG)-confirmed symptomatic hypoglycaemia. A post hoc composite endpoint was the proportion of participants achieving the primary composite endpoint without moderate or severe GI adverse events (AEs).

RESULTS

Across the SUSTAIN trials 1 to 5, 3918 participants with T2D were randomized to once-weekly subcutaneous semaglutide 0.5 mg, 1.0 mg, or comparators (placebo, sitagliptin 100 mg, exenatide extended release 2.0 mg or insulin glargine). The proportion of participants achieving HbA1c <53 mmol/mol (7.0%) with no weight gain and no severe/BG-confirmed symptomatic hypoglycaemia was 47% to 66% (semaglutide 0.5 mg) and 57% to 74% (semaglutide 1.0 mg) vs 7% to 19% (placebo) and 16% to 29% (active comparators; all P < .0001). More participants achieved the primary composite endpoint with no moderate or severe GI AEs with semaglutide vs comparators (all P < .0001).

CONCLUSION

Semaglutide helped more people with T2D achieve HbA1c targets than did comparators in the SUSTAIN 1 to 5 trials, while avoiding unwanted outcomes such as weight gain, hypoglycaemia and GI side effects.

Efficacy and safety of alirocumab among individuals with diabetes mellitus and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the ODYSSEY phase 3 trials

AIMS

Individuals with both diabetes mellitus (DM) and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) are at very high risk of cardiovascular events. This post-hoc analysis evaluated efficacy and safety of the PCSK9 inhibitor alirocumab among 984 individuals with DM and ASCVD pooled from 9 ODYSSEY Phase 3 trials.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Changes in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and other lipids from baseline to Week 24 were analysed (intention-to-treat) in four pools by alirocumab dosage (150 mg every 2 weeks [150] or 75 mg with possible increase to 150 mg every 2 weeks [75/150]), control (placebo/ezetimibe) and background statin usage (yes/no).

RESULTS

At Week 24, LDL-C changes from baseline in pools with background statins were -61.5% with alirocumab 150 (vs -1.0% with placebo), -46.4% with alirocumab 75/150 (vs +6.3% with placebo) and -48.7% with alirocumab 75/150 (vs -20.6% with ezetimibe), and -54.9% with alirocumab 75/150 (vs +4.0% with ezetimibe) without background statins. A greater proportion of alirocumab recipients achieved LDL-C < 70 and < 55 mg/dL at Week 24 vs controls. Alirocumab also resulted in significant reductions in non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, apolipoprotein B and lipoprotein(a) vs controls. Alirocumab did not appear to affect glycaemia over 78-104 weeks. Overall safety was similar between treatment groups, with a higher injection-site reaction frequency (mostly mild) with alirocumab.

CONCLUSION

Alirocumab significantly reduced LDL-C and other atherogenic lipid parameters, and was generally well tolerated in individuals with DM and ASCVD.

Systematic bias between blinded independent central review and local assessment: literature review and analyses of 76 phase III randomised controlled trials in 45 688 patients with advanced solid tumour

OBJECTIVE

Unbiased assessment of tumour response is crucial in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Blinded independent central review is usually used as a supplemental or monitor to local assessment but is costly. The aim of this study is to investigate whether systematic bias existed in RCTs by comparing the treatment effects of efficacy endpoints between central and local assessments.

DESIGN

Literature review, pooling analysis and correlation analysis.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, from 1 January 2010 to 30 June 2017.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES

Eligible articles are phase III RCTs comparing anticancer agents for advanced solid tumours. Additionally, the articles should report objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR), progression-free survival (PFS) or time to progression (TTP); the treatment effect of these endpoints, OR or HR, should be based on central and local assessments.

RESULTS

Of 76 included trials involving 45 688 patients, 17 (22%) trials reported their endpoints with statistically inconsistent inferences (p value lower/higher than the probability of type I error) between central and local assessments; among them, 9 (53%) trials had statistically significant inference based on central assessment. Pooling analysis presented no systematic bias when comparing treatment effects of both assessments (ORR: OR=1.02 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.07), p=0.42, I2=0%; DCR: OR=0.97 (95% CI 0.92 to 1.03), p=0.32, I2=0%); PFS: HR=1.01 (95% CI 0.99 to 1.02), p=0.32, I2=0%; TTP: HR=1.04 (95% CI 0.95 to 1.14), p=0.37, I2=0%), regardless of funding source, mask, region, tumour type, study design, number of enrolled patients, response assessment criteria, primary endpoint and trials with statistically consistent/inconsistent inferences. Correlation analysis also presented no sign of systematic bias between central and local assessments (ORR, DCR, PFS: r>0.90, p<0.01; TTP: r=0.90, p=0.29).

CONCLUSIONS

No systematic bias could be found between local and central assessments in phase III RCTs on solid tumours. However, statistically inconsistent inferences could be made in many trials between both assessments.

Cost Effectiveness of Secukinumab for the Treatment of Active Psoriatic Arthritis in the UK

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to determine the cost effectiveness of secukinumab, a fully human interleukin-17A inhibitor, for adults in the UK with active psoriatic arthritis (PsA) who are tumour necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) naïve and without concomitant moderate-to-severe psoriasis, and who have responded inadequately to conventional systemic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (csDMARDs).

PERSPECTIVE AND SETTING

The study took the perspective and setting of the UK National Health Service (NHS).

METHODS

The model structure was a 3-month decision tree leading into a Markov model. Separate analyses based on the number of prior csDMARDs (one and  two or more) were conducted, with secukinumab 150 mg compared to standard of care (SoC) and TNFis, respectively, for each subpopulation. Clinical parameters, including response at 3 months, were from the FUTURE 2 trial and a network meta-analysis. Outcomes included total costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) over the 40-year time horizon (3.5% annual discount for both outcomes; cost year 2017), and incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs).

RESULTS

The ICER for secukinumab 150 mg versus SoC was £28,748 per QALY gained (one prior csDMARD). Secukinumab 150 mg dominated golimumab, certolizumab pegol and etanercept, and had an ICER of £5680 per QALY gained versus adalimumab and > £1 million saved per QALY foregone versus infliximab (two or more prior csDMARDs). Valuing one QALY at between £20,000 and £30,000, the probability of secukinumab having the highest net monetary benefit was 48.9% (one prior csDMARD) and 88.9% (two or more prior csDMARDs). Parameters related to Health Assessment Questionnaire scores were most influential.

CONCLUSIONS

Secukinumab 150 mg at list price appears to represent a cost-effective use of NHS resources for adults with PsA who have responded inadequately to one or two or more prior csDMARDs.

The current status of clinical trials focusing on nasopharyngeal carcinoma: A comprehensive analysis of ClinicalTrials.gov database

PURPOSE

Clinical Trials have emerged as the main force in driving the development of medicine. However, little is known about the current status of clinical trials regarding nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). This study aimed at providing a comprehensive landscape of NPC-related trials on the basis of ClinicalTrials.gov database.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We used the keyword "nasopharyngeal carcinoma" to search the ClinicalTrials.gov database and assessed the characteristics of these trials.

RESULTS

Up to December 30, 2016, 462 eligible trials in total were identified, of which 222 (48.0%) recruited only NPC (NPC trials) and the other 240 (52.0%) recruited both NPC and other cancers (multiple cancer trials). Moreover, 47 (10.2%) were Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-related trials and 267 (57.8%) focused on metastatic/recurrent disease. Compared with NPC trials, the multiple cancer trials had a higher percentage of phase 1 (26.7% vs. 6.7%, P < 0.001) studies and more patients with metastatic/recurrent disease (72.5% vs. 41.9%, P < 0.001). Notably, non-EBV trials had more phase 2 or 3 (78.4% vs. 48.8%, P < 0.001) and interventional studies (89.5% vs. 70.7%, P = 0.002) than EBV trials. Obviously, more phase 2/3 or 3 trials were conducted in patients with non-metastatic/recurrent disease (29.4% vs. 4.9%, P < 0.001); however, metastatic/recurrent trials were more likely to be anticancer (94.6% vs. 63.6%, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The role of plasma EBV DNA in clinical trials is underestimated, and high-level randomized clinical trials should be performed for patients with metastatic/recurrent disease.

Uric acid lowering in relation to HbA1c reductions with the SGLT2 inhibitor tofogliflozin

An integrated analysis was performed with data from 4 phase 2 and phase 3 studies of tofogliflozin in which patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus received the sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor tofogliflozin for up to 24 weeks. Sex differences, baseline haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and serum uric acid (UA) levels, and log₁₀ -transformed urinary N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase ratio were significantly correlated with the reduction in serum UA levels at both 4 and 24 weeks in multivariate analysis (respectively, P < .0001). The decrease in HbA1c levels was greatest in the group with the highest baseline HbA1c level (quartile 4; HbA1c > 8.6%) and lowest in the group with the lowest baseline HbA1c level (quartile 1; HbA1c ≤ 7.4%). The decrease in serum UA levels was greatest in the quartile 1 group and lowest in the quartile 4 group. In most groups, the maximum decrease in serum UA levels was seen in the first 4 weeks, while the maximum decrease in HbA1c was seen at week 24. Thus, serum UA levels were significantly decreased in patients with moderate HbA1c levels.

National Trends in Extended Procedures for Ovarian Cancer Debulking Surgery

OBJECTIVE

Primary cytoreduction for ovarian cancer often requires extended radical procedures and is associated with significant morbidity. In 2010, neoadjuvant chemotherapy was shown to have similar survival to primary cytoreduction but with less need for radical surgery. We hypothesized that the increased use of neoadjuvant chemotherapy would decrease the use of radical cytoreductive procedures and thus examined trends in the performance of radical cytoreductive procedures.

METHODS

We used the Nationwide Inpatient Sample to determine the annual number of extended procedures (colon, small intestine, liver, diaphragm, spleen, and gastric resection, ileostomy, colostomy) performed in women undergoing surgery for ovarian cancer from 1998 to 2013. Estimates were weighted to provide national averages. To account for changes in incidence over time, we used national incidence rates and report procedures performed per 1000 new cases of ovarian cancer. Trends were assessed using Cochrane-Armitage tests.

RESULTS

We identified 274,639 ovarian cancer patients who underwent surgery, ranging from 15,720 to 18,714 procedures performed each year. We identified a significant increase in the use of extended procedures over this period. These differences were significant for absolute numbers of procedures, rate per 1000 new ovarian cancer cases, and percent per hysterectomy/bilateral salpingoophorectomy for rectosigmoid resection, diaphragm resection, splenectomy, ileostomy, and liver resection. Specifically, the use of these procedures rose from 1998 to 2010, declined in 2011, and rose again in 2012 and 2013.

CONCLUSIONS

Although there was a transient decrease in the use of extended cytoreductive procedures from 2010 to 2011 after the publication of randomized neoadjuvant trial data, use of these procedures again rose in 2012 and 2013.

Neuropsychiatric safety with liraglutide 3.0 mg for weight management: Results from randomized controlled phase 2 and 3a trials

AIMS

Liraglutide, a GLP-1 receptor agonist, regulates appetite via receptors in the brain. Because of concerns regarding the potential of centrally-acting anti-obesity medications to affect mental health, pooled neuropsychiatric safety data from all phase 2 and 3a randomized, double-blind trials with liraglutide 3.0 mg were evaluated post hoc.

METHODS

Data from the liraglutide weight-management programme were pooled. Across trials, individuals with a body mass index ≥30 or ≥27 kg/m² with weight-related comorbidities were randomized to once-daily subcutaneous liraglutide 3.0 mg (n = 3384) or placebo (n = 1941), both with a 500 kcal/d deficit diet, plus exercise. Adverse events related to neuropsychiatric safety were collected in all trials. Additionally, in the phase 3a trials, validated mental-health questionnaires were prospectively and systematically administered.

RESULTS

In the pooled analysis of 5325 randomized and exposed individuals, rates of depression (2.1 vs 2.1 events/100 person-years) and anxiety (1.9 vs 1.7 events/100 person-years) through adverse event reporting were similarly low in liraglutide and placebo groups. Nine (0.3%) individuals receiving liraglutide and 2 (0.1%) receiving placebo reported adverse events of suicidal ideation or behaviour. In phase 3a trials, mean baseline Patient Health Questionnaire-9 scores of 2.8 ± 3.0 vs 2.9 ± 3.1 for liraglutide vs placebo improved to 1.8 ± 2.7 vs 1.9 ± 2.7, respectively, at treatment end; 34/3291 individuals (1.0%) receiving liraglutide 3.0 mg vs 19/1843 (1.0%) receiving placebo reported suicidal ideation on the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale.

CONCLUSIONS

Results of this exploratory pooled analysis provide no cause for concern regarding the neuropsychiatric safety of treatment with liraglutide 3.0 mg in patients similar to those included in the examined trials. Although there was a small numerical imbalance in suicidal ideation with liraglutide through adverse event reporting, no between-treatment imbalances in suicidal ideation/behaviour or depression were noted through prospective questionnaire assessments.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) prevalence and its metabolic associations in patients with type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes

We investigated non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) prevalence and its metabolic associations in patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D), and in insulin-naïve and insulin-treated patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Baseline data from patients who had liver fat content (LFC) evaluated by magnetic resonance imaging in four phase 3 studies of basal insulin peglispro (BIL) were analysed. Associations of NAFLD with clinical characteristics, glycaemic control and diabetes therapy were evaluated. The prevalence of NAFLD (defined as LFC ≥ 6%) was low in T1D (8.8%) but high in T2D, with greater prevalence in insulin-naïve (75.6%) vs insulin-treated (61.7%) T2D patients. LFC (mean ± SD) was higher in T2D patients (insulin-naïve, 13.0% ± 8.4%; insulin-treated, 10.2% ± 7.8%) than in T1D patients (3.2% ± 3.2%). In T2D, NAFLD was associated with several markers of insulin resistance. In all three populations, there was an absence of association of HbA1c with LFC, but insulin doses were higher in patients with NAFLD.

Many-to-one comparisons after safety selection in multi-arm clinical trials

In phase II platform trials, ‘many-to-one’ comparisons are performed when K experimental treatments are compared with a common control to identify the most promising treatment(s) to be selected for Phase III trials. However, when sample sizes are limited, such as when the disease of interest is rare, only a single Phase II/III trial addressing both treatment selection and confirmatory efficacy testing may be feasible. In this paper, we suggest a two-step safety selection and testing procedure for such seamless trials. At the end of the study, treatments are first screened on the basis of safety, and those deemed to be sufficiently safe are then taken forwards for efficacy testing against a common control. All safety and efficacy evaluations are therefore performed at the end of the study, when for each patient all safety and efficacy data are available. If confirmatory conclusions are to be drawn from the trial, strict control of the family-wise error rate (FWER) is essential. However, to avoid unnecessary losses in power, no type I error rate should be “wasted” on comparisons which are no longer of interest because treatments have been dropped due to safety concerns. We investigate the impact on power and FWER control of multiplicity adjustments which correct efficacy tests only for the number of safe selected treatments instead of adjusting for all K null hypotheses the trial begins testing. We derive conditions under which strict control of the FWER can be achieved. Procedures using the estimated association between safety and efficacy outcomes are developed for the case when the correlation between endpoints is unknown. The operating characteristics of the proposed procedures are assessed via simulation.

Clinical Calculator for Early Mortality in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: An Analysis of Patients From 28 Clinical Trials in the Aide et Recherche en Cancérologie Digestive Database

Purpose Factors contributing to early mortality after initiation of treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer are poorly understood. Materials and Methods Data from 22,654 patients enrolled in 28 randomized phase III trials contained in the ARCAD (Aide et Recherche en Cancérologie Digestive) database were pooled. Multivariable logistic regression models for 30-, 60-, and 90-day mortality were constructed, including clinically and statistically significant patient and disease factors and interaction terms. A calculator (nomogram) for 90-day mortality was developed and validated internally using bootstrapping methods and externally using a 10% random holdout sample from each trial. The impact of early progression on the likelihood of survival to 90 days was examined with time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models. Results Mortality rates were 1.4% at 30 days, 3.4% at 60 days, and 5.5% at 90 days. Among baseline factors, advanced age, lower body mass index, poorer performance status, increased number of metastatic sites, BRAF mutant status, and several laboratory parameters were associated with increased likelihood of early mortality. A multivariable model for 90-day mortality showed strong internal discrimination (C-index, 0.77) and good calibration across risk groups as well as accurate predictions in the external validation set, both overall and within patient subgroups. Conclusion A validated clinical nomogram has been developed to quantify the risk of early death for individual patients during initial treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer. This tool may be used for patient eligibility assessment or risk stratification in future clinical trials and to identify patients requiring more or less aggressive therapy and additional supportive measures during and after treatment.

Nonpublication of trial results for new neurological drugs: A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate nonpublication rates among trials of new successful and unsuccessful neurological drugs.

METHODS

"Licensed" drugs consisted of all novel agents receiving US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) licensure 2005-2012 inclusive in seven neurological disorders. "Stalled" drugs included all experimental agents tested in the same domains that had at least one completed phase III trial in the same time frame, but failed to receive FDA approval. Trials of these drugs were included in our sample if their primary outcome collection occurred before October 1, 2010. We determined the publication status of eligible trials using searches of clinicaltrials.gov, Google Scholar, PubMed, Embase, sponsor websites, and direct electronic query of trial contacts and sponsors. The primary outcome was time to journal publication (or results reporting in other media) after study completion.

RESULTS

The adjusted hazard ratio for publication was 1.79 (95% confidence interval, 1.20-2.67) in favor of licensed drugs. Based on the criteria for nonpublication in this report, 14,092 and 33,882 volunteers participated in unpublished trials of licensed and stalled neurological drugs, respectively. Result data were not publicly available in any form for 10% (16 of 163) and 46% (94 of 203) of trials of licensed and stalled drugs, respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Results of trials for stalled drugs are heavily under-reported. This deprives research and care communities of evidence about pathophysiology, drug class effects, and the value of surrogate endpoints in trials. Ann Neurol 2017;81:782-789.

Patient-level meta-analysis of efficacy and hypoglycaemia in people with type 2 diabetes initiating insulin glargine 100U/mL or neutral protamine Hagedorn insulin analysed according to concomitant oral antidiabetes therapy

AIMS

Evaluate efficacy and hypoglycaemia according to concomitant oral antidiabetes drug (OAD) in people with type 2 diabetes initiating insulin glargine 100U/mL (Gla-100) or neutral protamine Hagedorn (NPH) insulin once daily.

METHODS

Four studies (target fasting plasma glucose [FPG] ⩽100mg/dL [⩽5.6mmol/L]; duration ⩾24weeks) were included. Standardised data from 2091 subjects (Gla-100, n=1024; NPH insulin, n=1067) were analysed. Endpoints included glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and FPG change, glycaemic target achievement, hypoglycaemia, weight change, and insulin dose.

RESULTS

Mean HbA1c and FPG reductions were similar with Gla-100 and NPH insulin regardless of concomitant OAD (P=0.184 and P=0.553, respectively) and similar proportions of subjects achieved HbA1c <7.0% (P=0.603). There was a trend for more subjects treated with Gla-100 achieving FPG ⩽100mg/dL versus NPH insulin (relative risk [RR] 1.09 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.97-1.23]; P=0.135). Plasma glucose confirmed (<70mg/dL) overall and nocturnal hypoglycaemia incidences and rates were lower with Gla-100 versus NPH insulin (overall RR 0.93 [95% CI 0.87-1.00]; P=0.041; nocturnal RR 0.73 [95% CI 0.65-0.83]; P<0.001). After 24weeks, weight gain and insulin doses were higher with Gla-100 versus NPH insulin (2.7kg vs 2.3kg, P=0.009 and 0.42U/kg vs 0.39U/kg; P=0.003, respectively). Insulin doses were higher when either insulin was added to sulfonylurea alone.

CONCLUSIONS

Pooled results from treat-to-target trials in insulin-naïve people with type 2 diabetes demonstrate a significantly lower overall and nocturnal hypoglycaemia risk across different plasma glucose definitions with Gla-100 versus NPH insulin at similar glycaemic control. OAD therapy co-administered with Gla-100 or NPH insulin impacts glycaemic control and overall nocturnal hypoglycaemia risk.

Quantitative Characterization of the Exposure-Response Relationship for Cancer Immunotherapy: A Case Study of Nivolumab in Patients With Advanced Melanoma

To inform the benefit-risk assessment of nivolumab in patients with advanced melanoma, analyses of efficacy and safety exposure-response (E-R) relationships were conducted with data from patients with advanced melanoma enrolled in two clinical studies (phase I and phase III) who received nivolumab 0.1-10.0 mg/kg every 2 weeks. E-R efficacy analyses were performed by relating the nivolumab time-averaged concentration after the first dose (Cavg1 ) to two endpoints: RECIST objective response (OR) and overall survival (OS). E-R safety analyses characterized the relationship between nivolumab Cavg1 and the hazard of all-causality adverse events leading to discontinuation or death (AE-DC/D). Nivolumab exposure represented by Cavg1 was not a significant predictor of OR, OS, or the hazard of AE-DC/D. E-R efficacy and safety relationships were relatively flat over the exposure range.

The impact of diabetes mellitus on survival following resection and adjuvant chemotherapy for pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND

Diabetes mellitus is frequently observed in pancreatic cancer patients and is both a risk factor and an early manifestation of the disease.

METHODS

We analysed the prognostic impact of diabetes on the outcome of pancreatic cancer following resection and adjuvant chemotherapy using individual patient data from three European Study Group for Pancreatic Cancer randomised controlled trials. Analyses were carried out to assess the association between clinical characteristics and the presence of preoperative diabetes, as well as the effect of diabetic status on overall survival.

RESULTS

In total, 1105 patients were included in the analysis, of whom 257 (23%) had confirmed diabetes and 848 (77%) did not. Median (95% confidence interval (CI)) unadjusted overall survival in non-diabetic patients was 22.3 (20.8-24.1) months compared with 18.8 (16.9-22.1) months for diabetic patients (P=0.24). Diabetic patients were older, had increased weight and more co-morbidities. Following adjustment, multivariable analysis demonstrated that diabetic patients had an increased risk of death (hazard ratio: 1.19 (95% CI 1.01, 1.40), P=0.034). Maximum tumour size of diabetic patients was larger at randomisation (33.6 vs 29.7 mm, P=0.026).

CONCLUSIONS

Diabetes mellitus was associated with increased tumour size and reduced survival following pancreatic cancer resection and adjuvant chemotherapy.

Heterogeneity in disease free survival between centers: lessons learned from an EORTC breast cancer trial

Background Large phase III clinical trials convey a lot of important information besides the main analysis of the treatment effect. For example, the use of multicenter clinical trial data to identify prognostic indices is now common. In addition, the study of heterogeneity in patient outcome between centers has received considerable attention in recent years. In this paper, we explain and illustrate a method used to investigate such heterogeneity with data from an early breast cancer clinical trial.

Methods The inclusion of a random effect for center in a Cox proportional hazards model allows us to study the heterogeneity in time-to-event outcomes between centers. Such a model has the major advantage that it provides a measure of the spread of outcomes over centers. This technique is illustrated using data from EORTC trial 10854, a randomized phase III trial comparing perioperative chemotherapy with no perioperative chemotherapy for early breast cancer; 2793 patients were entered by 14 centers.

Results Substantial heterogeneity between centers was detected for disease-free survival. This can be explained by the geographical area in which the center is located, with better outcomes achieved in France as compared with southern Europe and South Africa. None of the prognostic factors considered could explain this heterogeneity.

Conclusion Although clinical trials are run with the objective of removing as much heterogeneity as possible, some heterogeneity in the outcome of patients between centers may remain, as was the case in our study. The use of a random effect for center within a Cox PH model is an excellent method to investigate this heterogeneity. Such types of analyses, although exploratory, provide further insight into possible factors which may have an impact on the patient's outcome.

Comparison of the Non-VKA Oral Anticoagulants Apixaban, Dabigatran, and Rivaroxaban in the Extended Treatment and Prevention of Venous Thromboembolism: Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

Background

Historically, warfarin or aspirin have been the recommended therapeutic options for the extended treatment (>3 months) of VTE. Data from Phase III randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are now available for non-VKA oral anticoagulants (NOACs) in this indication. The current systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA) were conducted to compare the efficacy and safety of anticoagulants for the extended treatment of VTE.

Methods

Electronic databases (accessed July 2014 and updated April 2016) were systematically searched to identify RCTs evaluating apixaban, aspirin, dabigatran, edoxaban, rivaroxaban, and warfarin for the extended treatment of VTE. Eligible studies included adults with an objectively confirmed deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism or both. A fixed-effect Bayesian NMA was conducted, and results were presented as relative risks (RRs). Sensitivity analyses examining (i) the dataset employed according to the time frame for outcome assessment (ii) the model used for the NMA were conducted.

Results

Eleven Phase III RCTs (examining apixaban, aspirin, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, warfarin and placebo) were included. The risk of the composite efficacy outcome (VTE and VTE-related death) was statistically significantly lower with the NOACs and warfarin INR 2.0–3.0 compared with aspirin, with no significant differences between the NOACs. Treatment with apixaban (RR 0.23, 95% CrI 0.10, 0.55) or dabigatran (RR 0.55, 95% Crl 0.43, 0.71) was associated with a statistically significantly reduced risk of ‘major or clinically relevant non-major bleed’ compared with warfarin INR 2.0–3.0. Apixaban also showed a significantly reduced risk compared with dabigatran (RR 0.42, 95% Crl 0.18, 0.97) and rivaroxaban (RR 0.23, 95% Crl 0.09, 0.59). Sensitivity analyses indicate that results were dependent on the dataset, but not on the type of NMA model employed.

Conclusions

Results from the NMA indicate that NOACs are an effective treatment for prevention of VTE or VTE-related death) in the extended treatment setting. However, bleeding risk differs between potential treatments, with apixaban reporting the most favourable profile compared with other NOACs, warfarin INR 2.0–3.0, and aspirin.

Integrated safety of levodopa-carbidopa intestinal gel from prospective clinical trials

BACKGROUND

Continuous administration of levodopa-carbidopa intestinal gel (carbidopa-levodopa enteral suspension) through a percutaneous endoscopic gastrojejunostomy is a treatment option for advanced Parkinson disease (PD) patients with motor fluctuations resistant to standard oral medications. Safety data from 4 prospective studies were integrated to assess the safety of this therapy.

METHODS

Safety data from 4 studies were summarized using 2 overlapping data sets, permitting the separation of procedure/device-associated (n = 395) from non-procedure/device adverse events (n = 412).

RESULTS

At the data cutoff, median exposure to levodopa-carbidopa intestinal gel was 911 days (range, 1-1980 days) with 963 total patient-years of exposure. Procedure/device adverse events occurred in 300 patients (76%), and serious adverse events occurred in 68 (17%); most frequently reported procedure/device adverse events and serious adverse events were complications of device insertion (41% and 8%, respectively) and abdominal pain (36% and 4%, respectively). Non-procedure/device adverse events occurred in 92% (379), with most frequently reported being insomnia (23%) and falls (23%); 42% (171) had non-procedure/device serious adverse events, with most frequently reported being pneumonia (5%) and PD symptoms (2%). Adverse events led to discontinuation in 17% (72), most frequently because of complication of device insertion (2.4%). There were 34 treatment-emergent deaths (8.3%) in the overlapping data sets, 2 of which (0.5%) were considered "possibly related" to the treatment system.

CONCLUSION

In the largest collection of levodopa-carbidopa intestinal gel safety data from prospective clinical studies, procedure/device events were frequently reported and occasionally life threatening. Most non-procedure/device events were typical for levodopa treatment and an elderly population. These factors combined with high treatment efficacy led to a relatively low discontinuation rate in advanced PD patients.

Flexible selection of a single treatment incorporating short-term endpoint information in a phase II/III clinical trial

Seamless phase II/III clinical trials in which an experimental treatment is selected at an interim analysis have been the focus of much recent research interest. Many of the methods proposed are based on the group sequential approach. This paper considers designs of this type in which the treatment selection can be based on short-term endpoint information for more patients than have primary endpoint data available. We show that in such a case, the familywise type I error rate may be inflated if previously proposed group sequential methods are used and the treatment selection rule is not specified in advance. A method is proposed to avoid this inflation by considering the treatment selection that maximises the conditional error given the data available at the interim analysis. A simulation study is reported that illustrates the type I error rate inflation and compares the power of the new approach with two other methods: a combination testing approach and a group sequential method that does not use the short-term endpoint data, both of which also strongly control the type I error rate. The new method is also illustrated through application to a study in Alzheimer's disease.

Impact of a Dynamic Microbiological Environment on the Clinical Efficacy of Ertapenem and Piperacillin/Tazobactam in the Treatment of Complicated Community-Acquired Intra-Abdominal Infection in Spain: A Cost-Consequence Analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The microbial susceptibility of many antibiotics has been affected by prescribing patterns and their extensive use. The purpose of this evaluation was to assess how these changes could affect the initial efficacy of ertapenem and piperacillin/tazobactam in the treatment of complicated intra-abdominal infections (IAIs) acquired in the community and the potential consequences this may have in healthcare costs in Spain.

METHODS

The Initial efficacy of ertapenem and piperacillin/tazobactam for patients with APACHE (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) II scores <10 was extracted from a multicenter randomized study and were combined with the current microbial susceptibilities obtained from the SMART study, a multinational surveillance program. Country-specific pathogens distribution was extracted from a national study in patients with community-acquired IAI. The estimated effectiveness was used in a decision-analytic model to compare total costs between ertapenem and piperacillin/tazobactam in the treatment of complicated IAI. The model performs extensive one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

The model suggested a savings of €209 (year 2012 values) per patient when complicated IAIs acquired in the community (APACHE II <10) were treated with ertapenem instead of piperacillin/tazobactam. One-way sensitivity analyses showed length of stay as the key driver parameter. Further analysis of this parameter and probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of our evaluation, with a 58% likelihood of ertapenem being dominant.

CONCLUSIONS

Ertapenem appears to be a cost-saving strategy over piperacillin/tazobactam for the treatment of patients with complicated IAIs acquired in the community in Spain.

PATIENTS ACHIEVING GOOD GLYCEMIC CONTROL (HBA1c <7%) EXPERIENCE A LOWER RATE OF HYPOGLYCEMIA WITH INSULIN DEGLUDEC THAN WITH INSULIN GLARGINE: A META-ANALYSIS OF PHASE 3A TRIALS

OBJECTIVE

Meta-analysis to compare hypoglycemia rates of basal insulin degludec (IDeg) with insulin glargine (IGlar) in patients with diabetes achieving good glycemic control (hemoglobin A1c [HbA1c] <7% at end of trial).

METHODS

In a preplanned meta-analysis, patient data from 7 randomized, treat-to-target, 26- or 52-week trials in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) or type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) who administered IDeg (n = 2,899) or IGlar (n = 1,431) once daily were analyzed. Using a negative binomial regression model, this meta-analysis compared hypoglycemia rates in patients achieving HbA1c <7% at end of trial with IDeg (n = 1,347) and IGlar (n = 697).

RESULTS

In all trials, IDeg was noninferior to IGlar in HbA1c reduction from baseline. At end of trial, 2,044 patients (T2DM, n = 1,661; T1DM, n = 383) achieved HbA1c <7%. The overall confirmed hypoglycemia rate, defined as plasma glucose <56 mg/dL or severe hypoglycemia if requiring assistance, was significantly lower with IDeg versus IGlar (estimated rate ratio [ERR] IDeg:IGlar, 0.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76 to 0.98). The nocturnal confirmed hypoglycemia rate, defined as occurring between midnight and 6:00 am, was significantly lower with IDeg (ERR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.52 to 0.77). In the maintenance period (16 weeks onward when average insulin dose and glycemic levels stabilized), the overall confirmed hypoglycemia rate was significantly lower (ERR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.68 to 0.92) and the nocturnal confirmed hypoglycemia rate was significantly lower (ERR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.45 to 0.72) with IDeg versus IGlar.

CONCLUSION

Patients with T1DM and T2DM achieved HbA1c <7% with significantly lower rates of overall and nocturnal confirmed hypoglycemia with IDeg versus IGlar. The lower hypoglycemia rate with IDeg was more pronounced in the maintenance period.

Alopecia as surrogate marker for chemotherapy response in patients with primary epithelial ovarian cancer: a metaanalysis of four prospective randomised phase III trials with 5114 patients

PURPOSE

Alopecia is a common side-effect of chemotherapy and affects quality of life of cancer patients. Some patients and physicians believe that alopecia could be a surrogate marker for response to chemotherapy and impact on prognosis. However, this was never been tested in a sufficiently large cohort of ovarian cancer patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We analysed retrospectively the meta-databank of four prospective randomised phase-III-trials with platinum- and taxane-based 1st-line-chemotherapy in patients with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) regarding the impact of alopecia overall outcome.

RESULTS

For 4705 (92.0%) of a total of 5114 EOC-patients alopecia was documented. They had received on median six cycle platinum-taxane chemotherapy (range 0-11) with 4186 (89.0%) having completed ⩾ 6 cycles. Worst alopecia grade was 0 in 2.4%, 1 in 2.9% and 2 in 94.7% of the patients. In a univariate analysis, including all patients, grade-0/1 alopecia was associated with significantly lower progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) compared to grade-2 alopecia. However when assessing only those patients who completed ⩾ 6 chemotherapy-cycles and hence eliminating the bias of lower total dose of treatment, alopecia failed to retain any significant impact on survival in the multivariate analysis. Merely the time point of alopecia onset was an independent prognostic factor of survival: patients who developed grade-2 alopecia up to cycle 3 had a significantly longer OS compared to patients who experienced alopecia later during therapy (hazard ratio (HR): 1.25; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04-1.50).

CONCLUSIONS

Within a large EOC-patient cohort with 1st-line platinum- and taxane-based chemotherapy early onset alopecia appears to be significantly associated with a more favourable outcome in those patients who completed ⩾ 6 chemotherapy cycles. It remains to be elucidated if early onset alopecia is just a surrogate marker for higher sensitivity to chemotherapy or if other biological effects are underlying.

Assessment of health status over time by Prevalence and Weighted Prevalence functions: Interface in R

The importance of evaluating complications and toxicity during and following treatment has been stressed in many publications. In most studies, these endpoints are presented descriptively and summarized by numbers and percentages but descriptive methods are rarely sufficient to evaluate treatment-related complications. Pepe and Lancar developed Prevalence and Weighted Prevalence functions which take into account the duration and the severity of complication unlike conventional methods of survival analysis or competing risks which are limited to the time to first event. The purpose of this paper is to describe features and use of two R functions, main.preval.func and main.wpreval.func, which were designed for the analysis of survival adjusted for quality of life. These functions compute descriptive statistics, survival and competing risks analysis and especially Prevalence and Weighted Prevalence estimations with confidence intervals and associated test statistics. The use of these functions is illustrated by several examples.

Targeted survival improvements in clinical trials: are you an absolutist or relativist?

In this issue of Cancer, Castonguay et al highlight problems with reliably estimating the median OS in the control arm of clinical trials in ovarian cancer. This suggests that more careful reflection is generally required concerning how clinically relevant differences are determined and highlights further issues with the selection of overall survival as a primary endpoint. The article also raises questions regarding the prevalent standard statistical approach used to design and analyze studies with time to event outcomes.

Unsuccessful trial accrual and human subjects protections: an empirical analysis of recently closed trials

BACKGROUND

Ethical evaluation of risk-benefit in clinical trials is premised on the achievability of resolving research questions motivating an investigation.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the fraction and number of patients enrolled in trials that were at risk of not meaningfully addressing their primary research objective due to unsuccessful patient accrual.

METHODS

We used the National Library of Medicine clinical trial registry to capture all initiated phases 2 and 3 intervention clinical trials that were registered as closed in 2011. We then determined the number that had been terminated due to unsuccessful accrual and the number that had closed after less than 85% of the target number of human subjects had been enrolled. Five factors were tested for association with unsuccessful accrual.

RESULTS

Of 2579 eligible trials, 481 (19%) either terminated for failed accrual or completed with less than 85% expected enrolment, seriously compromising their statistical power. Factors associated with unsuccessful accrual included greater number of eligibility criteria (p = 0.013), non-industry funding (25% vs 16%, p < 0.0001), earlier trial phase (23% vs 16%, p < 0.0001), fewer number of research sites at trial completion (p < 0.0001) and at registration (p < 0.0001), and an active (non-placebo) comparator (23% vs 16%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

A total of 48,027 patients had enrolled in trials closed in 2011 who were unable to answer the primary research question meaningfully. Ethics bodies, investigators, and data monitoring committees should carefully scrutinize trial design, recruitment plans, and feasibility of achieving accrual targets when designing and reviewing trials, monitor accrual once initiated, and take corrective action when accrual is lagging.

Cost utility of telaprevir-PR (peginterferon-ribavirin) versus boceprevir-PR and versus PR alone in chronic hepatitis C in The Netherlands

BACKGROUND

The hepatitis C virus may lead to cirrhosis, liver cancer, liver transplant, and increased mortality. With standard treatment peginterferon-alpha and ribavirin (PR), sustained viral response (SVR) was less than 50 %. SVR rates improve greatly when PR is combined with telaprevir or boceprevir.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to assess the cost utility of telaprevir-peginterferon-ribavirin (TPR) versus PR and boceprevir-peginterferon-ribavirin (BPR) in treatment-naïve (TN) and treatment-experienced (TE) adults with chronic hepatitis C in the Netherlands.

METHODS

A Markov model with a lifelong time horizon and annual cycles was developed. Clinical data stemmed from phase III trials (TPR vs PR, BPR vs PR). A mixed treatment comparison (MTC) was developed to compare TPR and BPR indirectly. Unit costs and utilities based on EQ-5D were established in a Dutch cross-sectional study. Cost per quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) was calculated according to the societal perspective.

RESULTS

Treating TN patients with TPR generates 1.12 additional QALYs with €333 additional cost compared with PR, resulting in an incremental cost-utility ratio of €299/QALY. In TE patients, TPR dominates PR with cost savings (-€7,819) and 1.63 additional QALYs. TPR dominates BPR yielding additional QALYs (0.26 in TN; 0.71 in TE) and cost savings (-€7,296, -€18,144, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

TPR seems a cost-effective alternative to PR in TN patients and dominant in TE patients. TPR was a dominant, more effective and less costly alternative to BPR in both patient types. The cost effectiveness of both TPR and BPR is well below generally accepted willingness-to-pay thresholds and may be considered cost effective.

Lixisenatide plus basal insulin in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a meta-analysis

AIMS

The efficacy of the once-daily prandial GLP-1 receptor agonist lixisenatide plus basal insulin in T2DM was assessed by pooling results of phase III trials.

METHODS

A meta-analysis was performed of results from three trials in the GetGoal clinical program concerning lixisenatide or placebo plus basal insulin with/without OADs. The primary endpoint was change in HbA1c from baseline to week 24. Secondary endpoints were change in PPG, FPG, insulin dose, and weight from baseline to week 24. Hypoglycemia rates and several composite endpoints were assessed.

RESULTS

Lixisenatide plus basal insulin was significantly more effective than basal insulin alone at reducing HbA1c at 24 weeks. Composite and secondary endpoints were improved significantly with lixisenatide plus basal insulin, with the exception of FPG, which showed no significant difference between the groups. Lixisenatide plus basal insulin was associated with an increased incidence of hypoglycemia versus basal insulin alone.

CONCLUSIONS

Lixisenatide plus basal insulin resulted in significant improvement in glycemic control versus basal insulin alone, particularly in terms of controlling PPG. Prandial lixisenatide in combination with basal insulin is a suitable option for treatment intensification in patients with T2DM insufficiently controlled with basal insulin, as these agents have complementary effects on PPG and FPG, respectively.