The Pneumonia Severity Index as a Predictor of In-Hospital Mortality in Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

One-year mortality and readmission risks following hospitalization for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease based on the types of acute respiratory failure: An observational study

Few studies have examined the risk factors associated with the type of acute respiratory failure (ARF) in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This study evaluated the clinical characteristics and prognosis of patients hospitalized for acute exacerbation of COPD based on the type of ARF. The medical charts of hospitalized patients with acute exacerbation of COPD between 2016 and 2021 were retrospectively reviewed. We classified ARF into 2 types: type 1 ARF with PaO2 < 60 mm Hg in room air or a ratio of arterial partial pressure to fractional inspired oxygen < 300, and type 2 ARF with PaCO2 > 45 mm Hg and arterial pH < 7.35. A total of 435 patients were enrolled in study, including 170 participants without ARF, 165 with type 1 ARF, and 100 with type 2 ARF. Compared with the non-ARF group, the frequency of high-flow nasal cannula, noninvasive ventilation, intensive care unit admissions, and in-hospital deaths was higher in the ARF group compared with the non-ARF group. The ARF group had higher 1-year mortality group (hazard ratio [HR], 2.809; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.099-7.180; P = .031) and readmission within 1-year rates (HR, 1.561; 95% CI, 1.061-2.295; P = .024) than the non-ARF group. The type 1 ARF group had a higher risk of 1-year mortality (HR, 3.022; 95% CI, 1.041-8.774; P = .042) and hospital readmission within 1-year (HR, 2.053; 95% CI, 1.230-3.428; P = .006) compared with the non-ARF group. There was no difference in mortality and readmission rates between the type 1 and type 2 ARF groups. In conclusion, patients with type 1 ARF rather than type 2 ARF had higher mortality and readmission rates than those without ARF. The prognoses of patients with type 1 and type 2 ARF were similar.

Risk factors for anxiety and its impacts on acute exacerbation in older patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Background

Anxiety is common in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), especially in older patients with the definition of age over 60 years old. Few studies have focused on anxiety in older COPD patients. This study aimed to analyze the risk factors of anxiety in older COPD patients and the impacts of anxiety on future acute exacerbation.

Methods

The general information, questionnaire data, previous acute exacerbation and pulmonary function were collected. Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale (HAMA) was used to evaluate the anxiety of older COPD patients. The patients were followed up for one year, the number and the degrees of acute exacerbations of COPD were recorded.

Results

A total of 424 older COPD patients were included in the analysis. 19.81% (N = 84) had anxiety symptoms, and 80.19% (N = 340) had no anxiety symptoms. There were increased pack-years, more comorbidities, and more previous acute exacerbations in older COPD patients with anxiety compared to those without anxiety (P < 0.05). Meanwhile, a higher modified Medical Research Council (mMRC), a higher COPD assessment test (CAT) score and a shorter six-minute walking distance (6MWD) were found in older COPD patients with anxiety (P < 0.05). The BODE index, mMRC, CAT score, comorbidities and acute exacerbations were associated with anxiety. Eventually, anxiety will increase the risk of future acute exacerbation in older COPD patients (OR = 4.250, 95% CI: 2.369-7.626).

Conclusion

Older COPD patients with anxiety had worsening symptoms, more comorbidities and frequent acute exacerbation. Meanwhile, anxiety may increase the risk of acute exacerbation in the future. Therefore, interventions should be provided to reduce the risk of anxiety in older COPD patients at an early stage.

A pooled analysis of the risk prediction models for mortality in acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

OBJECTIVE

The prognosis for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is not optimistic, and severe AECOPD leads to an increased risk of mortality. Prediction models help distinguish between high- and low-risk groups. At present, many prediction models have been established and validated, which need to be systematically reviewed to screen out more suitable models that can be used in the clinic and provide evidence for future research.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library and Web of Science databases for studies on risk models for AECOPD mortality from their inception to 10 April 2022. The risk of bias was assessed using the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST). Stata software (version 16) was used to synthesize the C-statistics for each model.

RESULTS

A total of 37 studies were included. The development of risk prediction models for mortality in patients with AECOPD was described in 26 articles, in which the most common predictors were age (n = 17), dyspnea grade (n = 11), altered mental status (n = 8), pneumonia (n = 6) and blood urea nitrogen (BUN, n = 6). The remaining 11 articles only externally validated existing models. All 37 studies were evaluated at a high risk of bias using PROBAST. We performed a meta-analysis of five models included in 15 studies. DECAF (dyspnoea, eosinopenia, consolidation, acidemia and atrial fibrillation) performed well in predicting in-hospital death [C-statistic = 0.91, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.83, 0.98] and 90-day death [C-statistic = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.69, 0.82] and CURB-65 (confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure and age) performed well in predicting 30-day death [C-statistic = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.70, 0.77].

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides information on the characteristics, performance and risk of bias of a risk model for AECOPD mortality. This pooled analysis of the present study suggests that the DECAF performs well in predicting in-hospital and 90-day deaths. Yet, external validation in different populations is still needed to prove this performance.

Decoding the Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Puzzle: Investigating the Significance of Exacerbation Scores in Triage Decision-Making

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a complex disease pathology of the lungs that has a significant impact on global health. It has been a major contributor to global mortality and morbidity, with COPD exacerbations posing a substantial economic burden on the healthcare systems. Appropriate triaging of patients with COPD exacerbation is crucial to reduce the burden of hospitalization, especially in the intensive care unit (ICU). Understanding the significance of exacerbation scores in triage decision-making is essential for improving outcomes and optimizing patient care. To aid this triage decision-making, several scoring systems have been developed. This review article aims to discuss the different scores, including assessment of Confusion, Urea, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, and Age (≥65 years) (CURB-65); Dyspnoea, Eosinopenia, Consolidation, Acidaemia and atrial Fibrillation (DECAF), Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR); Platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR); Pneumonia severity index/Pneumonia Patient Outcomes Research Team (PSI/PORT); and elevated BUN, Altered mental status, Pulse, Age (>65 years) (BAP-65), and their role in triaging COPD exacerbations. Proper triaging allows for the appropriate allocation of resources and timely interventions based on severity. Further research and validation are needed to establish the optimal use and integration of these scores in clinical practice, particularly in ICU settings.

The arrival ward requiring help by wheelchair or medical cart, arterial oxygenation index, age, albumin and neutrophil count score: Predicting in-hospital mortality in Chinese patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROUND

In this study, we will derive and validate a prognostic tool to predict in-hospital death based on Chinese acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) patients.

METHODS

Independent predictors of in-hospital death were identified by logistic regression analysis and incorporated into a clinical prediction tool.

RESULTS

The clinical prediction model was developed with data from 1121 patients and validated with data from 245 patients. The five predictors of in-hospital death from the development cohort (Arrival ward requiring help by wheelchair or medical cart, Arterial oxygenation index, Age, Albumin and Neutrophil count) were combined to form the AAAAN Score. The AAAAN Score achieved good discrimination (AUC = 0.85, 95% CI 0.81-0.89) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square value was 3.33, p = 0.65). The AAAAN Score, which underwent internal bootstrap validation, also showed excellent discrimination for mortality (AUC = 0.85, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.89) and performed more strongly than other clinical prediction tools. Patients were categorized into 3 risk groups based on the scores: low risk (0-2 points, 0.7% in-hospital mortality), intermediate risk (3-4 points, 4.1% in-hospital mortality), and high risk (5-7 points, 23.4% in-hospital mortality). Predictive performance was confirmed by external validation.

CONCLUSIONS

The AAAAN Score is a prognostic tool to predict in-hospital death in Chinese AECOPD patients.

Prediction of individual mortality risk among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a convenient, online, individualized, predictive mortality risk tool based on a retrospective cohort study

Background

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a serious condition with a poor prognosis. No clinical study has reported an individual-level mortality risk curve for patients with COPD. As such, the present study aimed to construct a prognostic model for predicting individual mortality risk among patients with COPD, and to provide an online predictive tool to more easily predict individual mortality risk in this patient population.

Patients and methods

The current study retrospectively included data from 1,255 patients with COPD. Random survival forest plots and Cox proportional hazards regression were used to screen for independent risk factors in patients with COPD. A prognostic model for predicting mortality risk was constructed using eight risk factors.

Results

Cox proportional hazards regression analysis identified eight independent risk factors among COPD patients: B-type natriuretic peptide (hazard ratio [HR] 1.248 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.155-1.348]); albumin (HR 0.952 [95% CI 0.931-0.974); age (HR 1.033 [95% CI 1.022-1.044]); globulin (HR 1.057 [95% CI 1.038-1.077]); smoking years (HR 1.011 [95% CI 1.006-1.015]); partial pressure of arterial carbon dioxide (HR 1.012 [95% CI 1.007-1.017]); granulocyte ratio (HR 1.018 [95% CI 1.010-1.026]); and blood urea nitrogen (HR 1.041 [95% CI 1.017-1.066]). A prognostic model for predicting risk for death was constructed using these eight risk factors. The areas under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves for 1, 3, and 5 years were 0.784, 0.801, and 0.806 in the model cohort, respectively. Furthermore, an online predictive tool, the "Survival Curve Prediction System for COPD patients", was developed, providing an individual mortality risk predictive curve, and predicted mortality rate and 95% CI at a specific time.

Conclusion

The current study constructed a prognostic model for predicting an individual mortality risk curve for COPD patients after discharge and provides a convenient online predictive tool for this patient population. This predictive tool may provide valuable prognostic information for clinical treatment decision making during hospitalization and health management after discharge (https://zhangzhiqiao15.shinyapps.io/Smart_survival_predictive_system_for_COPD/).

The Combined Value of Type2 Inflammatory Markers in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

The roles of type2 inflammatory markers in chronic airway diseases have been assessed in previous studies. However, the relationship between the combined value of these biomarkers and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has not been fully elucidated. We aimed to investigate the roles of the combined value of the fraction of exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) level and blood eosinophil count in COPD and the predictive capability of these biomarkers. In total, 266 patients were included in our analysis. When the two type2 biomarkers were assessed separately, there were limited correlations between either increased FeNO level or blood eosinophil count and decreased incidence of total exacerbation or frequency of mild exacerbation. Combining these two biomarkers strengthened their association with both incidence and frequency of acute exacerbation. In addition, during further assessment, simultaneously increased FeNO level and blood eosinophil count were associated with both mild and moderate acute exacerbation. Among the subjects included in this analysis, although the predictive capability was improved when these two biomarkers were combined, the improvement was not statistically significant, indicating the need to increase the sample size. The combination of FeNO level and blood eosinophil count exhibited strong and independent additive value in the assessment of acute exacerbation in COPD; simultaneously increased FeNO level and blood eosinophil count played a protective role in progression of COPD.

Emergency admission parameters for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with hypercapnic respiratory failure

Background

Acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is a common presentation in emergency departments (ED) that can be fatal. This study aimed to develop a mortality risk assessment model for patients presenting to the ED with AECOPD and hypercapnic respiratory failure.

Methods

We analysed 601 participants who were presented to an ED of a tertiary hospital with AECOPD between 2018 and 2020. Patient demographics, vital signs, and altered mental status were assessed on admission; moreover, the initial laboratory findings and major comorbidities were assessed. We used least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression to identify predictors for establishing a nomogram for in-hospital mortality. Predictive ability was assessed using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). A 500 bootstrap method was applied for internal validation; moreover, the model’s clinical utility was evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA). Additionally, the nomogram was compared with other prognostic models, including CRB65, CURB65, BAP65, and NEWS.

Results

Among the 601 patients, 19 (3.16%) died during hospitalization. LASSO regression analysis identified 7 variables, including respiratory rate, PCO₂, lactic acid, blood urea nitrogen, haemoglobin, platelet distribution width, and platelet count. These 7 variables and the variable of concomitant pneumonia were used to establish a predictive model. The nomogram showed good calibration and discrimination for mortality (AUC 0.940; 95% CI 0.895–0.985), which was higher than that of previous models. The DCA showed that our nomogram had clinical utility.

Conclusions

Our nomogram, which is based on clinical variables that can be easily obtained at presentation, showed favourable predictive accuracy for mortality in patients with AECOPD with hypercapnic respiratory failure.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12890-021-01624-1.

Which one is superior in predicting 30 and 90 days mortality after COPD exacerbation: DECAF, CURB-65, PSI, BAP-65, PLR, NLR

Objectives: The major scores associated with the mortality after COPD exacerbations were; DECAF, CURB-65, PSI and BAP-65 scores. We aimed to compare these scores in predicting 30- and 90-day mortality in patients hospitalized with exacerbation of COPD.Methods: The data of 141 patients who were hospitalized with the diagnosis of COPD exacerbation between January 2018 and March 2019 and accepted to participate in the study were prospectively recorded.Results: Age, mean modified-medical-research-council (mMRC) dyspnea score, pleural effusion, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), presence of atrial fibrillation (AF), PaCO2 pressure values were found to be significantly higher at both 30 and 90-days deceased group, while hemoglobin, albumin and pH values were significantly lower (all p < 0.05). DECAF, CURB-65, PSI and BAP-65 scores were significantly higher for both 30 and 90-days mortality (all p < 0.05). DECAF, CURB-65, PSI, BAP-65 scores, PLR, NLR predicted to 30 day and 90 day mortality. But, CURB-65 found (OR 2.968 and 2.284, respectively) superior to others in predicting 30 and 90-days mortality.Conclusions: CURB-65 score is a significant, simple and feasible score for predicting 30 and 90 days mortality in COPD exacerbation and may be routinely used in all patients hospitalized with COPD exacerbation.

Prognostic Value of Hyponatremia During Acute Painful Episodes in Sickle Cell Disease

BACKGROUND

Low plasma sodium concentration has been recognized as a prognostic factor in several disorders but never evaluated in sickle cell disease. The present study evaluates its value at admission to predict a complication in adult patients with sickle cell disease hospitalized for an initially uncomplicated acute painful episode.

METHODS

The primary outcome of this retrospective study, performed between 2010 and 2015 in a French referral center for sickle cell disease, was a composite criterion including acute chest syndrome, intensive care unit transfer, red blood cell transfusion or inpatient death. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, hemoglobin genotype and concentration, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) concentration, and white blood cell count.

RESULTS

We included 1218 stays (406 patients). No inpatient death occurred during the study period. Hyponatremia (plasma sodium ≤135 mmol/L) at admission in the center was associated with the primary outcome (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.95, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.3-2.91, P = 0.001), with acute chest syndrome (OR 1.95 [95% CI 1.2-3.17, P = 0.008]), and red blood cell transfusion (OR 2.71 [95% CI 1.58-4.65, P <0.001]) but not significantly with intensive care unit transfer (OR 1.83 [95% CI 0.94-3.79, P = 0.074]). Adjusted mean length of stay was longer by 1.1 days (95% CI 0.5-1.6, P <0.001) in patients with hyponatremia at admission.

CONCLUSIONS

Hyponatremia at admission in the medical department for an acute painful episode is a strong and independent prognostic factor of unfavorable outcome and, notably, acute chest syndrome. It could help targeting patients who may benefit from closer monitoring.

Pneumonic versus Nonpneumonic Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) often suffer acute exacerbations (AECOPD) and community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), named nonpneumonic and pneumonic exacerbations of COPD, respectively. Abnormal host defense mechanisms may play a role in the specificity of the systemic inflammatory response. Given the association of this aspect to some biomarkers at admission (e.g., C-reactive protein), it can be used to help to discriminate AECOPD and CAP, especially in cases with doubtful infiltrates and advanced lung impairment. Fever, sputum purulence, chills, and pleuritic pain are typical clinical features of CAP in a patient with COPD, whereas isolated dyspnea at admission has been reported to predict AECOPD. Although CAP may have a worse outcome in terms of mortality (in hospital and short term), length of hospitalization, and early readmission rates, this has only been confirmed in a few prospective studies. There is a lack of methodologically sound research confirming the impact of severe AECOPD and COPD + CAP. Here, we review studies reporting head-to-head comparisons between AECOPD and CAP + COPD in hospitalized patients. We focus on the epidemiology, risk factors, systemic inflammatory response, clinical and microbiological characteristics, outcomes, and treatment approaches. Finally, we briefly discuss some proposals on how we should orient research in the future.

The v-DECAF score can predict 90-day all-cause mortality in patients with COPD exacerbation requiring invasive mechanical ventilation

INTRODUCTION

The DECAF score is a simple and effective tool for predicting mortality in patients hospitalized with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD); however, the DECAF score has not been validated in AECOPD patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). We devised the ventilator (v)-DECAF score, in which "anemia" replaces "acidaemia," for use in AECOPD patients requiring IMV. The objective of this study was to compare the predictive efficacy of the v-DECAF score and the DECAF score.

METHODS

This study prospectively recruited 112 consecutive AECOPD patients requiring IMV from a single center. The clinical endpoint was 90-day all-cause mortality. Demographic and clinical data were recorded, as well as APACHE II, GCS, CURB-65, BAP-65 and DECAF scores, and the newly devised v-DECAF score. The discriminatory value of the scoring systems in predicting 90-day all-cause mortality was determined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve.

RESULTS

In multivariate logistic regression analysis, the v-DECAF score was an independent predictor of 90-day all-cause mortality (odds ratio 3.004, 95% CI 1.658-5.445, P < 0.001). The AUROC of the v-DECAF and DECAF scores were 0.852 (95% CI 0.766-0.938) and 0.777 (95%CI: 0.676-0.878), respectively. The v-DECAF score had a better predictive value for 90-day all-cause mortality compared to the DECAF score (Z = 2.338, P = 0.019).

CONCLUSION

The v-DECAF score had good discriminatory power in predicting 90-day all-cause mortality in AECOPD patients requiring IMV.

Independent factors associated with pneumonia among hospitalized patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Acute exacerbations (AE) affect the prognosis of hospitalized patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Pneumonia further affects their prognosis and early diagnosis of pneumonia in AECOPD is important to initiate treatments. This study aimed to examine the differences between hospitalized AECOPD patients with and without pneumonia in order to identify risk factors of pneumonia among hospitalized patients with AECOPD.This was a retrospective case-control study of patients with COPD hospitalized at the respiratory ward of Beijing Shijitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, from October 2010 to October 2013. Patients were divided into the pneumonia and nonpneumonia groups based on exudations or opacities on chest computed tomography (CT) at admission. Data were analyzed using the chi-square test and independent 2-sample ANOVA in SPSS 20.0. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the factors independently associated with pneumonia. P < .05 was considered statistically significant.A total of 164 patients were included. Smoking history (OR = 2.646, 95%CI 1.153-6.074, P = .022), use of drugs during the stable stage (OR = 0.435, 95%CI 0.216-0.877, P = .020), D-dimer levels (OR = 1.001, 95%CI 1.000-1.002, P = .049), percentage of neutrophils (OR = 0.271, 95%CI 0.078-0.940, P = .040), and magnitude of neutrophils increase (OR = 0.946, 95%CI 0.896-0.999, P = .046) were independently associated with pneumonia in patients with AECOPD. For severe and very severe COPD patients, smoking history (OR = 4.426, 95%CI 1.458-13.435, P = .009), use of drugs during the stable stage (OR = 0.384, 95%CI 0.168-0.877, P = .042), and fever (OR = 0.426, 95%CI 0.187-0.969, P = .023) were independently associated with pneumonia.Smoking history, use of drugs during the stable stage, and percentage of neutrophils are independently associated with CT-diagnosed pneumonia among hospitalized AECOPD patients.

Development of a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality of patients with exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Background and objectives

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) often experience exacerbations of their disease, sometimes requiring hospital admission and being associated with increased mortality. Although previous studies have reported mortality from exacerbations of COPD, there is limited information about prediction of individual in-hospital mortality. We therefore aimed to use data from a nationwide inpatient database in Japan to generate a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality from patients’ characteristics on admission.

Methods

We retrospectively collected data on patients with COPD who had been admitted for exacerbations and been discharged between July 1, 2010 and March 31, 2013. We performed multivariable logistic regression analysis to examine factors associated with in-hospital mortality and thereafter used these factors to develop a nomogram for predicting in-hospital prognosis.

Results

The study comprised 3,064 eligible patients. In-hospital death occurred in 209 patients (6.8%). Higher mortality was associated with older age, being male, lower body mass index, disturbance of consciousness, severe dyspnea, history of mechanical ventilation, pneumonia, and having no asthma on admission. We developed a nomogram based on these variables to predict in-hospital mortality. The concordance index of the nomogram was 0.775. Internal validation was performed by a bootstrap method with 50 resamples, and calibration plots were found to be well fitted to predict in-hospital mortality.

Conclusion

We developed a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality of exacerbations of COPD. This nomogram could help clinicians to predict risk of in-hospital mortality in individual patients with COPD exacerbation.

[Outcome predictors for COPD patients hospitalized for acute exacerbation]

BACKGROUND

Prognostic factors for clinical failure of acute exacerbation in patients with COPD (AECOPD) are of special importance in order to choose an adequate therapy and resources during inpatient treatment. Our database was analyzed to identify predictors for a negative outcome.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In a retrospective analysis medical records of 616 patients (299 women; 317 men) hospitalized for AECOPD between January 2011 and January 2016 were analyzed in order to evaluate demographic and clinical parameters leading to adverse events. Only the first admission was considered. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the relative risk (odds ratio (OR) leading to severe adverse events such as intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation (invasive or noninvasive), early readmission to ICU and hospital and death).

RESULTS

An increased risk of an ICU admission was found for patients with a coronary heart disease (OR = 5.734; p = 0.009) and for patients requiring an antibiotic therapy (OR = 11.721; p = 0.003). An increased risk for rehospitalisation and mortality was found for age (OR = 1.034; p = 0.028) and a longer duration of the hospital stay (OR = 1.063; p = 0.042). A lower C‑reactive protein (CRP) level was associated with a lower risk of readmission to the hospital (OR = 0.991; p = 0.03). An increased risk of ventilator therapy was found for patients with chronic heart failure (OR = 6.166; p = 0.02) and sleep apnea syndrome (OR = 6.698; p = 0.003), diabetes (OR = 3.754; p = 0.041) and a long stay in the ICU (OR = 2.018; p = 0.000).

CONCLUSIONS

Comorbidities in patients with AECOPD were found to be a major risk factor for ICU admission and mechanical ventilation. Elderly patients and patients with prolonged hospital stay showed a higher risk for readmission and mortality. Patients with a low CRP blood level seemed to have a lower risk for rehospitalisation.

Prognostic role of D-dimer for in-hospital and 1-year mortality in exacerbations of COPD

Background and objective

Serum D-dimer is elevated in respiratory disease. The objective of our study was to investigate the effect of D-dimer on in-hospital and 1-year mortality after acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD).

Methods

Upon admission, we measured 343 AECOPD patients’ serum D-dimer levels and arterial blood gas analysis, and recorded their clinical characteristics. The level of D-dimer that discriminated survivors and non-survivors was determined using a receiver operator curve (ROC). The risk factors for in-hospital mortality were identified through univariate analysis and multiple logistic regression analyses. To evaluate the predictive role of D-dimer for 1-year mortality, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed.

Results

In all, 28 patients died, and 315 patients survived in the in-hospital period. The group of dead patients had lower pH levels (7.35±0.11 vs 7.39±0.05, P<0.0001), higher D-dimer, arterial carbon dioxide tension (PaCO₂), C-reactive protein (CRP), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) levels (D-dimer 2,244.9±2,310.7 vs 768.2±1,078.4 µg/L, P<0.0001; PaCO₂: 58.8±29.7 vs 46.1±27.0 mmHg, P=0.018; CRP: 81.5±66, P=0.001; BUN: 10.20±6.87 vs 6.15±3.15 mmol/L, P<0.0001), and lower hemoglobin levels (118.6±29.4 vs 128.3±18.2 g/L, P=0.001). The areas under the ROC curves of D-dimer for in-hospital death were 0.748 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.641–0.854). D-dimer ≥985 ng/L was a risk factor for in-hospital mortality (relative risk =6.51; 95% CI 3.06–13.83). Multivariate logistic regression analysis also showed that D-dimer ≥985 ng/L and heart failure were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality. Both univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that D-dimer ≥985 ng/L was an independent risk factor for 1-year death (hazard ratio (HR) 3.48, 95% CI 2.07–5.85 for the univariate analysis; and HR 1.96, 95% CI 1.05–3.65 for the multivariate analysis).

Conclusion

D-dimer was a strong and independent risk factor for in-hospital and 1-year death for AECOPD patients.

Acute exacerbation of COPD

The literature of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is fast expanding. This review focuses on several aspects of acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) including epidemiology, diagnosis and management. COPD poses a major health and economic burden in the Asia-Pacific region, as it does worldwide. Triggering factors of AECOPD include infectious (bacteria and viruses) and environmental (air pollution and meteorological effect) factors. Disruption in the dynamic balance between the 'pathogens' (viral and bacterial) and the normal bacterial communities that constitute the lung microbiome likely contributes to the risk of exacerbations. The diagnostic approach to AECOPD varies based on the clinical setting and severity of the exacerbation. After history and examination, a number of investigations may be useful, including oximetry, sputum culture, chest X-ray and blood tests for inflammatory markers. Arterial blood gases should be considered in severe exacerbations, to characterize respiratory failure. Depending on the severity, the acute management of AECOPD involves use of bronchodilators, steroids, antibiotics, oxygen and noninvasive ventilation. Hospitalization may be required, for severe exacerbations. Nonpharmacological interventions including disease-specific self-management, pulmonary rehabilitation, early medical follow-up, home visits by respiratory health workers, integrated programmes and telehealth-assisted hospital at home have been studied during hospitalization and shortly after discharge in patients who have had a recent AECOPD. Pharmacological approaches to reducing risk of future exacerbations include long-acting bronchodilators, inhaled steroids, mucolytics, vaccinations and long-term macrolides. Further studies are needed to assess the cost-effectiveness of these interventions in preventing COPD exacerbations.