Changing Patterns of Undiagnosed HIV Infection in the Netherlands: Who Benefits Most from Intensified HIV Test and Treat Policies?

The CHALO! 2.0 mHealth-Based Multilevel Intervention to Promote HIV Testing and Linkage-to-Care Among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Mumbai, India: Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Current programs to engage marginalized populations such as gay and bisexual individuals and other men who have sex with men (MSM) in HIV prevention interventions do not often reach all MSM who may benefit from them. To reduce the global burden of HIV, far-reaching strategies are needed to engage MSM in HIV prevention and treatment. Globally, including low- and middle-income countries, MSM are now widely using internet-based social and mobile technologies (SMTs; eg, dating apps, social media, and WhatsApp [Meta]), which provides an unprecedented opportunity to engage unreached and underserved groups, such as MSM for HIV prevention and care.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of a multilevel mobile health (mHealth)-based intervention to improve HIV testing uptake and status neutral linkage-to-care among sexually active MSM reached through internet-based platforms in Mumbai, India.

METHODS

In this randomized controlled trial, we will determine whether CHALO! 2.0 (a theory-based multilevel intervention delivered in part through WhatsApp) results in increased HIV testing and linkage-to-care (prevention or treatment). This study is being conducted among 1000 sexually active MSM who are unaware of their HIV status (never tested or tested >6 months ago) and are recruited through SMTs in Mumbai, India. We will conduct a 12-week, 3-arm randomized trial comparing CHALO! 2.0 to 2 control conditions-an attention-matched SMT-based control (also including a digital coupon for free HIV testing) and a digital coupon-only control. The primary outcomes will be HIV testing and status neutral linkage-to-care by 6 months post enrollment. Participants will be followed up for a total of 18 months to evaluate the long-term impact.

RESULTS

The study was funded in 2020, with recruitment having started in April 2022 due to delays from the COVID-19 pandemic. Baseline survey data collection began in April 2022, with follow-up surveys starting in July 2022. As of April 2022, we enrolled 1004 participants in the study. The completion of follow-up data collection is expected in January 2025, with results to be published thereafter.

CONCLUSIONS

While global health agencies have called for internet-based interventions to engage populations vulnerable to HIV who are not being reached, few proven effective and scalable models exist and none is in India, which has one of the world's largest HIV epidemics. This study will address this gap by testing a multicomponent mHealth intervention to reach and engage MSM at high priority for HIV interventions and link them to HIV testing and prevention or treatment.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04814654; https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04814654. Clinical Trial Registry of India CTRI/2021/03/032280.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/59873.

A survey-based assessment of rates and covariates of mpox diagnosis and vaccination provides evidence to refine eligibility criteria for mpox vaccination among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men in the Netherlands

Background

The 2022 multicountry mpox outbreaks predominantly affected gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) in non-endemic countries, including in the Netherlands. We conducted a survey-based assessment of the alignment between the risk factors associated with mpox diagnosis among GBMSM in the Netherlands and the eligibility criteria used in 2022 for vaccinating this group, with the aim to refine these criteria.

Methods

An online self-report survey was conducted among adult GBMSM in the Netherlands between 29 July and 30 August 2022, corresponding to the first month of the Dutch mpox vaccination campaign. GBMSM were recruited via advertisements on social media and gay dating apps. Participants reported on their sexual behaviour, mpox diagnosis, and/or (initial) mpox vaccination since the start of the outbreak. Covariables of mpox diagnosis and vaccination were assessed using logistic regression analyses.

Results

Of the 2,460 participants, 73 (3.0%, 95% CI 2.3-3.6%) were diagnosed with mpox and 485 (19.7%, 95% CI 18.1-21.3%) had received (initial) mpox vaccination. Using sample weighting, we estimated that, of the GBMSM population aged 18-80 years in the Netherlands, 1.1% (95% CI 0.7-1.6%) had been diagnosed with mpox and 7.8% (95% CI 6.8-8.9%) had received (initial) vaccination. HIV-PrEP use, living with HIV, reporting ≥20 sex partners in the past 12 months, and sex in sex venues/parties in the past 2 months were independent risk factors for mpox diagnosis. Except for sex in sex venues/parties, these variables were also independently associated with mpox vaccination.

Conclusion

This study provides novel evidence regarding the degree to which the 2022 eligibility criteria for mpox vaccination align with the risk factors for mpox among GBMSM in the Netherlands. The findings contribute to a refinement of the eligibility criteria for mpox vaccination, to which sex in sex venues/parties should be added.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hepatitis B virus vaccination and transmission among men who have sex with men: a mathematical modelling study

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Factors associated with immunological and virological discordant responses to highly active antiretroviral therapy among adult HIV positive individuals in Ethiopia: A cross-sectional study

In clinical practice, not all human immune deficiency virus (HIV) positive individuals who received highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) achieve the desired concordant response characterized by a sustained viral suppression or immune recovery. The expected success of HAART doesn't occur in all treated patients and a discordant response between CD4 count and the viral load (VL) has been a major concern in the treatment of HIV patients. Thus, this study is designed to describe the factors associated with immunological and virological discordant responses to HAART among adult HIV positive individuals.A hospital-based cross-sectional study with secondary data review was conducted on 423 HIV positive individuals on HAART from February 1 to April 30, 2017. Socio-demographic characteristics, clinical data and about 10 mL of blood specimen for HIV VL, and CD4 count measurement were collected. The data was entered into SPSS version 20 and descriptive, bivariate, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was employed.The mean age of the patients at study time was 39 (±9.8). The average follow-up duration of patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) was 7 (±3) years. The prevalence of immunological discordance and virological discordance to HAART were 13.2% and 47%, respectively. With multivariate logistic regression analysis duration of follow-up on ART ≤ 6 years (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 3.29 (1.80-6.03), P ≤ .001) and VL ≥20 copies/mm3 (AOR = 3.08 [1.70-5.61], P ≤ .001) were significant factors for immunological discordance conversely the patients who switched drug as a result of TB (AOR = 3.33 [1.10-10.08], P = .03) was significant factors for virological discordance.The prevalence of immunological discordance and virological discordance to HAART among HIV patients is high. Patients with the duration of follow-up on ART ≤ 6 years, VL ≥ 20 copies/mm3 and patients who switched drugs as a result of TB were significant factors for discordance. Hence, intensive adherence support and counseling should be provided to achieve the UNAIDS 90 target. HIV positive individuals co-infected with TB, who have had VL ≥ 20 copies/mm3 and who are ≤6 years duration of follow-up on ART need to be carefully monitored. In addition, national based study of discordant groups is recommended.

Understanding Reasons for HIV Late Diagnosis: A Qualitative Study Among HIV-Positive Individuals in Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Since the introduction of effective anti-retroviral therapy, early diagnosis and treatment of HIV have become increasingly important from individual and public health perspectives. People who are diagnosed with a CD4 count below 350 cells/µL blood are today considered to be “late” diagnoses. In an effort to understand the reasons for late diagnosis, we conducted in-depth interviews (n = 14) in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Two main factors were identified: psychosocial factors and health-system factors. Psychosocial factors relate to people’s personal relationship with health professionals, low risk perception, fear related to the outcome of testing, and trauma from observed past experiences of living with HIV. Health-system factors relate to institutional barriers and missed opportunities during client-provider interactions. We conclude that in order to mitigate late diagnosis, the social and institutional context within which HIV testing is conducted should be addressed.

Offering a choice of daily and event-driven preexposure prophylaxis for men who have sex with men in the Netherlands: a cost-effectiveness analysis

OBJECTIVES

To assess the cost-effectiveness of a preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) programme offering a choice of daily and event-driven PrEP for men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Netherlands.

METHODS

We used an agent-based transmission model and an economic model to simulate a programme offering only daily PrEP and a programme offering daily and event-driven PrEP. Use of PrEP medication and preference for daily versus event-driven PrEP were estimated from the Amsterdam PrEP Demonstration Project (AMPrEP). We calculated costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER), over 2018-2027. An ICER less than €20 000 per QALY gained was considered cost-effective.

RESULTS

Using AMPrEP data, we estimated that 27% of PrEP users chose event-driven PrEP with a median of 12 pills per month; daily PrEP users used a median of 30 pills per month. With PrEP, 3740 HIV infections were averted and 1482 QALYs were gained over 2018-2027, compared to the scenario without PrEP. The probability of the PrEP programme being cost-effective (compared to not having a PrEP programme) increased from 91% with daily PrEP to 94% with a choice of daily and event-driven PrEP. The probability of being cost-saving increased from 42% with only daily PrEP to 48% with choice of daily and event-driven PrEP.

CONCLUSIONS

A daily PrEP programme for MSM would be cost-effective. Providing a choice of daily and event-driven PrEP can result in savings and is more likely to be cost-effective and cost-saving, compared to a programme offering only daily PrEP.

Placing sexually transmitted infection surveillance data in perspective by using national probability sample surveys

BACKGROUND

Many European countries do not have comprehensive sexually transmitted infection (STI) surveillance in place. The objective was to investigate whether national probability sample surveys are useful in placing STI surveillance into perspective.

METHODS

We used data from the Dutch national cross-sectional probability sample survey on sexual health 2016 (18-34-year-old sexually active individuals). Descriptive analyses were performed regarding STI testing (last year). Test numbers were extrapolated from the survey and compared with surveillance data from sexual health centres (SHCs) (complete) and general practitioners (GPs) (representative estimates from 7% of all GPs). Statistical differences in characteristics between SHC attendees and general population (according to weighted survey participants) were determined using χ2 statistic. Predictors of recent testing at GPs or SHCs were determined using multinomial multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

Of the 17 222 survey invitees, 3217 (19%) were eligible for analyses. Testing uptake was higher in women (17.2%, 14.8-20.0%) than men (11.5%, 9.1-14.3%). The majority of tests were conducted by GPs followed by SHCs and hospitals. Number of tests extrapolated from the survey was similar to SHC surveillance data, but higher than GP surveillance data (women only). Testing at SHCs was associated with high-risk behaviour and with living in highly urbanized areas. Low education level and older age were, next to high-risk behaviour factors, determinants of testing at GPs.

CONCLUSIONS

National probability sample surveys are useful for placing STI surveillance data into perspective by providing insights in testing patterns in the general population and identifying strengths and weaknesses of national surveillance systems.

Ending risk-group HBV vaccination for MSM after the introduction of universal infant HBV vaccination: A mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

Risk-group HBV vaccination for men who have sex with men (MSM) was introduced in the Netherlands in 2002, followed by universal infant vaccination in 2011, that will enable termination of risk-group vaccination over time. The introduction of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention might result in increased HBV testing and vaccination against HBV. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of the transition from risk-group to universal HBV vaccination, accounting for improvements in HBV testing and treatment, as well as the introduction of PrEP.

METHODS

We developed a mathematical model for HBV transmission among MSM. Universal vaccination was modelled by assigning some MSM (5-15% in 2028 increasing to 80-90% in 2033 and thereafter) to be vaccinated when they become sexually active. We investigated different scenarios assuming 0.5% extra vaccination rate and 0.5% extra testing rate due to PrEP consultations; and 5% of HIV-negative MSM on PrEP, that will reduce the probability of HBV acquisition by 88%.

RESULTS

Universal vaccination resulted in a reduction of 24% (interquartile range; 22-25%) of the total number of HBV infections among MSM estimated to occur from 2020 to 2070. With universal vaccination, terminating risk-group vaccination in 2030 or 2040 resulted in 30% or 10% more HBV infections over 2020-2070, respectively, compared to continuation of risk-group vaccination until 2070. With PrEP and continued risk-group vaccination, the total number of HBV infections over 2020-2070 was reduced by 13%.

CONCLUSIONS

Universal HBV vaccination can lead to a major reduction in HBV incidence among MSM in the future. The reduction becomes smaller when ending risk-group HBV vaccination, but larger by PrEP use for HIV prevention. Efforts to keep high levels of HBV vaccination, testing, and treatment have to be continued in the coming decades in order to eliminate HBV as a health threat for MSM.

'I don't want anyone to know': Experiences of obtaining access to HIV testing by Eastern European, non-European Union sex workers in Amsterdam, the Netherlands

Historically, the Netherlands has hosted a large number of migrant sex workers. Since sex work is considered a legal profession it might serve as an example of better access to health services, including HIV testing, at least for those working within the legal framework. However, migrant sex workers, especially non-European Union (EU) nationals, might not be eligible to register for official employment and thus face obstacles in obtaining access to health services, becoming essentially invisible. This study examined context-specific vulnerabilities of migrant female sex workers (FSWs) from Belarus, Moldova, Russia and Ukraine, whether and how they have access to HIV testing compared to other EE, non-EU migrant FSWs in Amsterdam in the Netherlands. We conducted a multi-stakeholder perspective study from November 2015 to September 2017 in Amsterdam. The study comprised 1) semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders (N = 19); 2) in-depth interviews with Eastern European, non-EU migrant FSWs (N = 5) and field observations of the escort agency working with them; and 3) in-depth interviews with key stakeholders (N = 12). We found six key barriers to HIV testing: 1) migration and sex-work policies; 2) stigma, including self-stigmatization; 3) lack of trust in healthcare providers or social workers; 4) low levels of Dutch or English languages; 5) negative experience in accessing healthcare services in the home country; and 6) low perceived risk and HIV-related knowledge. Having a family and children, social support and working at the licensed sex-work venues might facilitate HIV testing. However, Internet-based sex workers remain invisible in the sex-work industry. Our findings indicate the importance of addressing women’s diverse experiences, shaped by intrapersonal, interpersonal, community, network and policy-level factors, with stigma being at the core. We call for the scaling up of outreach interventions focusing on FSWs and, in particular, migrant FSWs working online.

Chronic hepatitis B and C infections in the Netherlands: estimated prevalence in risk groups and the general population

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections are usually asymptomatic for decades, thus targeted screening can prevent liver disease by timely diagnosis and linkage to care. More robust estimates of chronic HBV and HCV infections in the general population and risk groups are needed. Using a modified workbook method, the total number of ever chronically infected individuals in the Netherlands in 2016 was determined using population size and prevalence estimates from studies in the general and high-risk population. The estimated 2016 chronic HBV infection prevalence is 0.34% (low 0.22%, high 0.47%), corresponding to approximately 49 000 (low 31 000, high 66 000) HBV-infected individuals aged 15 years and older. The estimated ever-chronic HCV infection prevalence is 0.16% (low 0.06%, high 0.27%), corresponding to approximately 23 000 (low 8000, high 38 000) ever-chronic HCV-infected individuals. The prevalence of chronic HBV and HCV infections in the Netherlands is low. First-generation migrants account for most infections with 81% and 60% of chronic HBV and HCV infections, respectively. However, about one-fifth of HCV infections is found in the general population at low risk. This method can serve as an example for countries in need of more accurate prevalence estimates, to help the design and evaluation of prevention and control policies.

Cost-effectiveness of increased HIV testing among MSM in The Netherlands

OBJECTIVES

To assess the cost-effectiveness of increased consistent HIV testing among MSM in the Netherlands.

METHODS

Among MSM testing at sexually transmitted infection clinics in the Netherlands in 2014-2015, approximately 20% tested consistently every 6 months. We examined four scenarios with increased percentage of MSM testing every 6 months: a small and a moderate increase among all MSM; a small and a moderate increase only among MSM with at least 10 partners in the preceding 6 months. We used an agent-based model to calculate numbers of HIV infections and AIDS cases prevented with increased HIV testing. These numbers were used in an economic model to calculate costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) due to increased testing, over 2018-2027, taking a healthcare payer perspective.

RESULTS

A small increase in the percentage testing every 6 months among all MSM resulted in 490 averted HIV infections and an average ICER of &OV0556;27 900/QALY gained. A moderate increase among all MSM, resulted in 1380 averted HIV infections and an average ICER of &OV0556;36 700/QALY gained. Both were not cost-effective, with a &OV0556;20 000 willingness-to-pay threshold. Increasing the percentage testing every 6 months only among MSM with at least 10 partners in the preceding 6 months resulted in less averted HIV infections than increased testing among all MSM, but was on average cost-saving.

CONCLUSION

Increased HIV testing can prevent considerable numbers of new HIV infections among MSM, but may be cost-effective only if targeted at high-risk individuals, such as those with many partners.

People living with undiagnosed HIV infection and a low CD4 count: estimates from surveillance data, Italy, 2012 to 2014

Background and aims

Late HIV diagnosis is associated with onward HIV transmission, higher morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. In Italy, more than half of people living with HIV were diagnosed late during the last decade, with a CD4 count < 350 cells/mm³ at diagnosis. We aimed to determine the number and characteristics of people living with undiagnosed HIV infection and low CD4 counts in Italy.

Methods

Data on newly reported HIV diagnoses from 2012 –2014 were obtained from the national HIV surveillance system. We used the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control HIV modelling tool to calculate the undiagnosed prevalence and yearly diagnosed fraction (YDF) in people with low CD4 count.

Results

The estimated annual number undiagnosed HIV infections with low CD4 count was on average 6,028 (95% confidence interval (CI): 4,954–8,043) from 2012–2014. In 2014, most of the undiagnosed people with low CD4 count were men (82.8%), a third acquired HIV through sex between men (MSM) (35.0%), and heterosexual transmission (33.4%), respectively. The prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infection was 11.3 (95% CI: 9.3–14.9) per 100,000 residents ranging from 0.7 to 20.8 between Italian regions. Nationally the prevalence rate was 280.4 (95% CI: 173.3–450.2) per 100,000 MSM, 8.3 (95% CI: 4.9–13.6) per 100,000 heterosexual men, and 3.0 (95% CI: 1.4–5.6) per 100,000 women. The YDF was highest among heterosexual women (27.1%; 95% CI: 16.9–45.2%).

Conclusions

These findings highlight the importance of improving efforts to identify undiagnosed HIV infections primarily among men, both MSM and heterosexual men.

Linkage and retention in HCV care for HIV-infected populations: early data from the DAA era

Introduction

There is currently no published data on the effectiveness of DAA treatment for elimination of HCV infection in HIV‐infected populations at a population level. However, a number of relevant studies and initiatives are emerging. This research aims to report cascade of care data for emerging HCV elimination initiatives and studies that are currently being evaluated in HIV/HCV co‐infected populations in the context of implementation science theory.

Methods

HCV elimination initiatives and studies in HIV co‐infected populations that are currently underway were identified. Context, intervention characteristics and cascade of care data were synthesized in the context of implementation science frameworks.

Results

Seven HCV elimination initiatives and studies were identified in HIV co‐infected populations, mainly operating in high‐income countries. Four were focused mainly on HCV elimination in HIV‐infected gay and bisexual men (GBM), and three included a combination of people who inject drugs (PWID), GBM and other HIV‐infected populations. None were evaluating treatment delivery in incarcerated populations. Overall, HCV RNA was detected in 4894 HIV‐infected participants (range within studies: 297 to 994): 48% of these initiated HCV treatment (range: 21% to 85%; within studies from a period where DAAs were broadly available the total is 57%, range: 36% to 74%). Among studies with treatment completion data, 96% of 1109 initiating treatment completed treatment (range: 94% to 99%). Among those who could be assessed for sustained virological response at 12 weeks (SVR12), 1631 of 1757 attained SVR12 (93%, range: 86% to 98%).

Conclusions

Early results from emerging research on HCV elimination in HIV‐infected populations suggest that HCV treatment uptake is higher than reported levels prior to DAA treatment availability, but approximately half of patients remain untreated. These results are among diagnosed populations and additional effort is required to increase diagnosis rates. Among those who have initiated treatment, completion and SVR rates are promising. More data are required in order to evaluate the effectiveness of these elimination programmes in the long term, assess which intervention components are effective, and whether they need to be tailored to particular population groups.

Reducing health disparities: key factors for successful implementation of social network testing with HIV self-tests among men who have sex with men with a non-western migration background in the Netherlands

Improving testing uptake among men who have sex with men with a non-western migration background (MSM-NW) is a public health priority, as people who are unaware of their HIV infection are at higher risk of transmitting HIV and are unable to benefit from HIV treatment. Formative semi-structured interviews with 13 MSM-NW assessed key factors for the successful implementation of social network testing with HIV self-tests (SNT-HIVST). Interviews were thematically analysed. Participants mentioned that SNT-HIVST might overcome barriers to regular HIV testing including; being seen while testing, disclosure of sexual identity, and stigma related to HIV and sexual practices. Trust between the HIVST distributer and receiver was important. Finally, SNT-HIVST requires tailored peer support to address practical, informational, and emotional needs. MSM-NW distributing HIVST can have an important role in reducing health disparities in testing uptake among MSM-NW. Provided sufficient trust among MSM-NW; key factors found for successful implementation were education through an e-tool, and establishing quality support by a peer-coordinator for unanticipated questions. In conclusion, HIVST distribution has the potential to reduce health disparities in testing uptake, in particular, if adjusted to MSM-NWs individual preferences and the needs and preferences of the person they are inviting to test.

Are Opportunities Being Missed? Burden of HIV, STI and TB, and Unawareness of HIV among African Migrants

Sub-Saharan African migrants (SSAMs) have been disproportionately affected by infectious disease burden. We aimed to identify correlates of HIV, past sexually transmitted infection (STI) and past Tuberculosis infection (TB), as well as examine HIV seropositivity unawareness and testing history among SSAMs. A venue-based sample of 790 SSAMs completed a cross-sectional biobehavioral survey on sexual practices, HIV testing and self-reported infectious diseases; an HIV rapid test was offered. Overall, 5.4% of participants were HIV-positive and 16.7% reported a past STI. Odds of being HIV positive or having a past STI were higher among participants with low socioeconomic status and who experienced violence from a partner. Increased odds of having a past STI were also found among long-term migrants and those who reported sexual risk behaviors. In total, 4.1% of participants had TB in the past; these were more likely male and HIV positive. Unawareness of HIV-positive status was notably high (35%). Half of the participants had never been tested for HIV before, including over a third of those who had STI or TB in the past. Efforts are needed to reduce missed opportunities for HIV/STIs prevention and uptake of HIV testing among SSAMs through more integrated care, while addressing social determinants of infectious diseases.

HIV outcomes among migrants from low-income and middle-income countries living in high-income countries: a review of recent evidence

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Migrants living in high-income countries are disproportionately affected by HIV infection and frequently have characteristics associated with poor HIV clinical outcomes. HIV epidemiology among migrants is influenced by changes in migration patterns and variations in transmission risk behaviors. Here we review the recently published literature on known HIV outcomes among migrants from low-income and middle-income countries living in high-income countries.

RECENT FINDINGS

High proportions of migrants acquire HIV after migration, and this group frequently presents to care late. Once established in care, migrants are often more likely to experience worse HIV treatment outcomes compared with native populations. Multiple individual and structural factors influence HIV diagnosis and treatment outcomes among migrants, including disruption of social networks, increased sexual risk behaviors, communication barriers, limited access to care, and stigma. Few studies have examined interventions targeted at improving HIV outcomes among migrants.

SUMMARY

Stigma and limited access to care appear to be primary drivers of poor HIV outcomes among migrants in high-income countries. Addressing these disparities is limited by difficulties in identifying and monitoring this population as well as a lack of evidence regarding appropriate interventions for migrants living with HIV. Improving outcomes for this group requires interventions that are specifically targeted at this marginalized and growing population.

The Denominator problem: estimating the size of local populations of men-who-have-sex-with-men and rates of HIV and other STIs in Switzerland

OBJECTIVES

There is no estimate of the current number of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Switzerland, or of their geographical distribution. We aimed to (1) estimate MSM concentration factors and population sizes for 83 Swiss postal code areas (PCA), including the nine largest Swiss cities, and (2) calculate MSM-specific local HIV prevalence and yearly rates of diagnosed HIV, hepatitis C virus (HCV), syphilis and gonorrhoea.

METHODS

We triangulated data from general population estimates, MSM online surveys, published data on HIV prevalence and Swiss notification data for HIV and STDs. We compared two different formulae for the estimation of local MSM populations and calculated Bayesian 95%-credible-intervals (CrI) for each PCA.

RESULTS

Across Switzerland, we estimate the MSM population aged 15-64 at roughly 80 000 men (95% CrI 64 000-96 000). (1) MSM in Switzerland were most concentrated in the five largest cities of Zurich, Geneva, Lausanne, Bern and Basel. (2) We estimate that in 2012, 6300 MSM, or 8.0%, were living with HIV, both diagnosed and undiagnosed and 1700 MSM, or 2.2%, had non-suppressed HIV infection. Between 2010 and 2013, average yearly rates of diagnosed HIV, HCV, syphilis and gonorrhoea were 0.3%, 0.02%, 0.4 % and 0.4 %, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Combining general population data, MSM online surveys and notification data allows the calculation of realistic estimates of local MSM populations and thus proportions of MSM with diagnosed HIV and other STIs, with implications for prevention planning, commissioning of health services and counselling MSM on HIV/STI risk. Our methodology for Switzerland is transferable to other countries with similar data sources.

Elimination prospects of the Dutch HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men in the era of preexposure prophylaxis

Objective:

Preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a promising intervention to help end the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Netherlands. We aimed to assess the impact of PrEP on HIV prevalence in this population and to determine the levels of PrEP coverage necessary for HIV elimination.

Design and methods:

We developed a mathematical model of HIV transmission in a population stratified by sexual risk behavior with universal antiretroviral treatment (ART) and daily PrEP use depending on an individual's risk behavior. We computed the effective reproduction number, HIV prevalence, ART and PrEP coverage for increasing ART and PrEP uptake levels, and examined how these were affected by PrEP effectiveness and duration of PrEP use.

Results:

At current levels of ART coverage of 80%, PrEP effectiveness of 86% and PrEP duration of 5 years, HIV elimination required 82% PrEP coverage in the highest risk group (12 000 MSM with more than 18 partners per year). If ART coverage increased by 9%, the elimination threshold was at 70% PrEP coverage. For shorter PrEP duration and lower effectiveness elimination prospects were less favorable. For the same number of PrEP users distributed among two groups with highest risk behavior, prevalence dropped from the current 8 to 4.6%.

Conclusion:

PrEP for HIV prevention among MSM could, in principle, eliminate HIV from this population in the Netherlands. The highest impact of PrEP on prevalence was predicted when ART and PrEP coverage increased simultaneously and PrEP was used by the highest risk individuals.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men in the Amsterdam Cohort Studies: Use, eligibility, and intention to use

Objective

Currently, HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is not covered by health insurance in the Netherlands. We examined time trends in use of PrEP, characteristics of PrEP users, PrEP eligibility and intention to use PrEP among HIV-negative men who have sex with men (MSM) participating in the Amsterdam Cohort Studies (ACS).

Design

Prospective cohort study.

Methods

We used data from four 6-monthly questionnaire waves, collected between 2015–2017. PrEP use over time was examined in logistic regression models using generalized estimating equations. Using descriptive statistics, we compared PrEP users before first-time initiation to non-PrEP-users. We used national guidelines to assess PrEP eligibility.

Results

We included 687 MSM. Median age was 40 (IQR 33–47) years in 2015. Recent PrEP use was reported by 57/687 (8%) MSM. PrEP use increased over calendar time (P<0.001) to 7% in 2017. PrEP users did not differ from non-PrEP users in socio-demographic characteristics, but reported a significantly higher median number of casual sex partners, more often reported condomless anal sex and chemsex with casual partners, and more often had an sexually transmitted infection in the preceding 6 months (all P<0.05). PrEP eligibility increased over time, but the effect was not statistically significant (P = 0.075). PrEP eligibility criteria were met by 149/460 (32%) at wave 4, of whom 31/149 (21%) reported use of PrEP. The proportion with a high intention to use PrEP was greater among eligible than non-eligible MSM (51% vs. 24%, P<0.001).

Conclusion

PrEP use increased over time but remained under 10%, even though 32% met the eligibility criteria, of whom 51% had a high intention to use PrEP. This suggests that a large proportion of Dutch MSM at risk could benefit from PrEP.

Increasing awareness and prompting HIV testing: Contributions of Amsterdam HIV Testing Week 2016

We evaluated Amsterdam HIV Testing Week (HTW) 2016 regarding its primary goals of raising awareness and prompting HIV testing. Participating services offered free, anonymous HIV testing, with a focus on reaching men who have sex with men (MSM) and people with a non-western migration background. Sociodemographic characteristics, HIV testing history, intention to test regularly, beliefs about personal risk and severity of HIV, and perceived social norms regarding HIV testing and people living with HIV were assessed among all who tested. A community quick scan assessed awareness of Amsterdam HTW 2016 and attitudes and intentions regarding HIV testing. Of 806 people tested, 59.6% (405/679) belonged to key populations. None tested HIV-positive and 37.6% intended to test regularly in the future. The community quick scan found moderate awareness of Amsterdam HTW 2016. Awareness was highest among recent testers and HIV-positive MSM and not associated with HIV testing attitudes and intentions. People tested during Amsterdam HTW 2016 were from key populations and/or were not (adequately) reached via traditional testing approaches. The contribution of the Amsterdam HTW approach to raising awareness and prompting HIV testing in key populations may benefit from focusing on HIV-negative individuals who have not been tested recently.

Development and evaluation of a blended educational programme for general practitioners' trainers to stimulate proactive HIV testing

Background

In the Netherlands, a substantial proportion of newly diagnosed HIV patients present late for care, therefore, we investigated the effectiveness of a blended educational programme for trainers of GPs designed to stimulate proactive HIV testing.

Methods

GP trainers at the Academic Medical Center in Amsterdam were invited to participate in a two days training programme incorporating evidence-based practice guidelines and multiple teaching strategies, including interactive lectures, discussion groups, e-learning and quality improvement targets. The GP trainers completed questionnaires before and after the programme to evaluate the effect of the programme. We also used six-monthly cumulative laboratory data from 2010 to 2015 to compare the participating GPs’ HIV tests to the general trend in testing among non-participating GPs.

Results

150 GP trainers attended the first session, and 74 completed the questionnaires for both sessions. GPs median score on achieving their quality improvement targets was high and the quality of the programme highly appreciated. Between 2010 and 2013, the mean annual number of laboratory-documented HIV tests decreased by 9.1% in the 624 GPs in the control group, and by 13.0% for 11 GPs in the intervention group. After the programme, the annual decreases were 2.3% and 1.8%, respectively. Before the programme, the GPs in the intervention group had 50% more laboratory-documented HIV tests than GPs in the control group. After the programme, GPs in the intervention group had twice as many laboratory-documented HIV tests as the controls.

Conclusions

We provided a detailed description of a programme based on educational and clinical evidence. We could not retrieve laboratory-documented HIV testing data for the majority of GPs in both the intervention and control groups. Therefore, the limited results should be interpreted with caution as our findings may not be representative of all participants. The blended educational programme appears to have stabilized – at a higher level – the initially stronger downward trend in testing for 11 GPs undergoing the intervention, indicating that the programme may have had an impact on their HIV testing behaviour.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12875-018-0723-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Estimating the HIV undiagnosed population in Catalonia, Spain: descriptive and comparative data analysis to identify differences in MSM stratified by migrant and Spanish-born population

OBJECTIVE

Undiagnosed HIV continues to be a hindrance to efforts aimed at reducing incidence of HIV. The objective of this study was to provide an estimate of the HIV undiagnosed population in Catalonia and compare the HIV care cascade with this step included between high-risk populations.

METHODS

To estimate HIV incidence, time between infection and diagnosis and the undiagnosed population stratified by CD4 count, we used the ECDC HIV Modelling Tool V.1.2.2. This model uses data on new HIV and AIDS diagnoses from the Catalan HIV/AIDS surveillance system from 2001 to 2013. Data used to estimate the proportion of people enrolled, on ART and virally suppressed in the HIV care cascade were derived from the PISCIS cohort.

RESULTS

The total number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Catalonia in 2013 was 34 729 (32 740 to 36 827), with 12.3% (11.8 to 18.1) of whom were undiagnosed. By 2013, there were 8458 (8101 to 9079) Spanish-born men who have sex with men (MSM) and 2538 (2334 to 2918) migrant MSM living with HIV in Catalonia. A greater proportion of migrant MSM than local MSM was undiagnosed (32% vs 22%). In the subsequent steps of the HIV care cascade, migrants MSM experience greater losses than the Spanish-born MSM: in retention in care (74% vs 55%), in the proportion on combination antiretroviral treatment (70% vs 50%) and virally suppressed (65% vs 46%).

CONCLUSIONS

By the end of 2013, there were an estimated 34 729 PLHIV in Catalonia, of whom 4271 were still undiagnosed. This study shows that the Catalan epidemic of HIV has continued to expand with the key group sustaining HIV transmission being MSM living with undiagnosed HIV.

HIV testing week 2015: lowering barriers for HIV testing among high-risk groups in Amsterdam

BACKGROUND

Evaluation of the HIV Testing Week (HTW) 2015 in Amsterdam: the number of (positive) tested persons, characteristics and testing history of the tested population, the differences in attendance per location and the healthcare workers' experiences and opinions concerning the HTW.

METHODS

The HTW took place from 28 November till 4 December 2015. Anonymous HIV rapid testing (INSTI™ HIV1/HIV2 Ab test or Determine™ HIV-1/2 Ag/Ab test) was offered free of charge at four hospitals, 12 general practitioner (GP) clinics, a sexually transmitted infections (STI) clinic, a laboratory, sites of a community-based organisation, and at outreach locations. Home-based testing (OraQuick® In-Home HIV Test) was offered online. The focus was to motivate two groups to test: men who have sex with men (MSM) and non-Western migrants. Questionnaires regarding participant's characteristics and HIV testing history were collected. Also healthcare workers were asked to complete a questionnaire evaluating the HTW.

RESULTS

In total, 1231 participants were tested. With three positive HIV tests, the detection rate was 0.3% (95%CI 0.26-0.37). Of all participants, 24.7% (304/1231) were MSM. Respectively, 22.3% (275/1231) and 15.7% (193/1231) were first- and second-generation migrants from a non-Western country. Altogether, 56.7% (698/1231) of participants belonged to one of the targeted risk groups. For 32.7% (402/1231) of participants, it was the first time they received testing, and 35.1% (432/1231) were tested more than 1 year ago. Among MSM 13.2% were tested for the first time, among first- and second-generation non-Western migrants this percentage was significantly higher at 27.2% and 33.5% respectively (p < 0.01). The number of tested participants per location varied widely, especially between GP clinics (range 3-63). Healthcare workers were positive about the HTW: about half (46.2%) stated they would more readily offer an HIV test following their experience with the HTW.

CONCLUSIONS

This was the first time the Amsterdam HTW was organised on such a large scale. The majority of the tested population belonged to one of the targeted risk groups and received testing either for the first time or for the first time in over a year. It is important to further build upon the experiences of the HTW and offer free of charge low-threshold HIV testing more structurally. An evaluation of cost-effectiveness is also warranted for future editions of the HTW.

Occult HIV infection in a large sample of health-care users in Lombardy, Italy in 2014-2015: implications for control strategies

We estimated the number of people unaware of their human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in our province, Pavia (population 540 000) in Lombardy, Italy, by means of anonymous unlinked testing of 10 044 serum/plasma samples residual from clinical analyses at the outpatient clinic of Policlinico San Matteo in 2014 and 2015. Ethical and legal approval was obtained prior to study start. Samples were irreversibly anonymised, only retaining gender and 5-year age class. Five sample pools were tested for HIV using LIAISON® XL MUREX HIV Ab/Ag (DiaSorin, Saluggia, Italy). If the pool tested positive, individual samples underwent confirmatory tests, Innotest HIV Antigen mAb (Fujirebio Europe, Gent, Belgium) and HIV BLOT 2·2 (MP Diagnostics, Singapore). Among the 10 044 samples processed, eight were confirmed positive (0·08%, 95% confidence interval 0·03-0·16%), all were males and age was >50 in 3 (37·5%). If projected to the entire population of the Pavia province, this would result in approximately 1000 people unaware of their HIV infection, with age older than expected. In Italy, HIV testing is voluntary, universally free-of-charge and (upon request) anonymous. Nevertheless, this study demonstrates that it is suboptimally employed, and that new strategies and population-level actions will be needed to achieve better implementation of HIV testing and HIV control in our province.

Comparing viral load metrics and evaluating their use for HIV surveillance

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the value of in-care viral load (ICVL) and other viral load (VL) metrics for HIV surveillance by comparing time trends and associations with numbers of new HIV diagnoses.

METHODS

Data from 20,740 HIV patients registered in the Dutch ATHENA-cohort between 2002 and 2013 were used. We compared: six ICVL metrics (i.e. mean of the mean/first/last/highest log VL, median of the median log VL, first log VL for newly diagnosed combined with mean log VL for all others), log VL at diagnosis, proportion of patients with transmission risk (>400 copies/ml) or suppressed VL (≤200 copies/ml). Subgroup differences were assessed using Kruskal-Wallis and chi-square tests. Negative binomial regression was used for studying associations between VL metrics and numbers of new diagnoses 1-4 years later.

RESULTS

Most ICVL metrics showed similar decreasing trends over time. Differences in covariables were found for all VL metrics. Mean ICVL showed the strongest association with new diagnoses: a decrease of one log unit in mean ICVL was associated with a 21% decrease in new diagnoses two years later.

CONCLUSIONS

VL metrics may be of value for enhancing HIV surveillance by identifying subgroup differences in impact of treatment on viral suppression, and by predicting numbers of new diagnoses in subsequent years.

An epidemiological modelling study to estimate the composition of HIV-positive populations including migrants from endemic settings

OBJECTIVE

Migrants account for a significant number of people living with HIV in Europe, and it is important to fully consider this population in national estimates. Using a novel approach with the UK as an example, we present key public health measures of the HIV epidemic, taking into account both in-country infections and infections likely to have been acquired abroad.

DESIGN

Mathematical model calibrated to extensive data sources.

METHODS

An individual-based stochastic simulation model is used to calibrate to routinely collected surveillance data in the UK. Data on number of new HIV diagnoses, number of deaths, CD4 cell count at diagnosis, as well as time of arrival into the UK for migrants and the annual number of people receiving care were used.

RESULTS

An estimated 106 400 (90% plausibility range: 88 700-124 600) people were living with HIV in the UK in 2013. Twenty-three percent of these people, 24 600 (15 000-36 200) were estimated to be undiagnosed; this number has remained stable over the last decade. An estimated 32% of the total undiagnosed population had CD4 cell count less than 350 cells/μl in 2013. Twenty-five and 23% of black African men and women heterosexuals living with HIV were undiagnosed respectively.

CONCLUSION

We have shown a working example to characterize the HIV population in a European context which incorporates migrants from countries with generalized epidemics. Despite all aspects of HIV care being free and widely available to anyone in need in the UK, there is still a substantial number of people who are not yet diagnosed and thus not in care.

Missed opportunities to offer HIV tests to high-risk groups during general practitioners' STI-related consultations: an observational study

OBJECTIVES

Prior research has shown that Dutch general practitioners (GPs) do not always offer HIV testing and the number of undiagnosed HIV patients remains high. We aimed to further investigate the frequency and reasons for (not) testing for HIV and the contribution of GPs to the diagnosis of HIV infections in the Netherlands.

DESIGN

Observational study.

SETTING

(1) Dutch primary care network of 42-45 sentinel practices where report forms during sexually transmitted infection (STI)-related consultations were routinely collected, 2008-2013. (2) Dutch observational cohort with medical data of HIV-positive patients in HIV care, 2008-2013.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The proportion of STI-related consultations in patients from high-risk groups tested for HIV, with additional information requested from GPs on HIV testing preconsultation or postconsultation for whom HIV testing was indicated, but not performed. Next, information was collected on the profile of HIV-positive patients entering specialised HIV care following diagnosis by GPs.

RESULTS

Initially, an HIV test was reported (360/907) in 40% of STI-related consultations in high-risk groups. Additionally, in 26% of consultations an HIV test had been performed in previous or follow-up consultations or at different STI-care facilities. The main reasons for not testing were perceived insignificant risk; 'too' recent risk according to GPs or the reluctance of patients. The initiative of the patient was a strong determinant for HIV testing. GPs diagnosed about one third of all newly found cases of HIV. Compared with STI clinics, HIV-positive patients diagnosed in general practice were more likely to be older, female, heterosexual male or sub-Saharan African.

CONCLUSIONS

In one-third of the STI-related consultations of persons from high-risk groups, no HIV test was performed in primary care, which is lower than previously reported. Risk-based testing has intrinsic limitations and implementation of new additional strategies in primary care is warranted.

Determinants of never having tested for HIV among MSM in the Netherlands

OBJECTIVES

Men who have sex with men (MSM) who are unaware of their HIV infection are more likely to infect others, and unable to receive treatment. Therefore, we aimed to identify the proportion and characteristics of Dutch MSM who never tested for HIV.

METHODS

In 2010, the European MSM Internet Survey (EMIS) recruited 174,209 men from 38 countries through an anonymous online questionnaire in 25 languages. We analysed data from participants living in the Netherlands (N=3787). The outcome we investigated was having never (lifetime) been tested for HIV.

RESULTS

A total of 770 MSM (20.4%) had never been tested for HIV. In multivariate regression analyses, not being from Amsterdam (adjusted OR, aOR 1.54, CI 1.17 to 2.03), with low education (aOR 1.28, CI 1.04 to 1.57) and low knowledge on HIV-testing (aOR 2.23, CI 1.37 to 3.64) were significantly associated with never having tested. Lower sexual risk (including having fewer sexual partners (aOR 2.19, CI 1.57 to 3.04) and no anal intercourse (aOR 5.99, CI 3.04 to 11.77)), and less social engagement (including being less out (aOR 1.93, CI 1.55 to 2.40)) were also associated with having never been tested. Additionally, 36.1% of MSM who never tested for HIV reported high-risk sexual behaviour that may have put them at HIV risk.

CONCLUSIONS

MSM make their own risk assessments that inform their choices about HIV-testing. Nevertheless, MSM who were never tested may have been at risk for HIV, and remain important to target for HIV interventions.

Factors associated with presenting late or with advanced HIV disease in the Netherlands, 1996-2014: results from a national observational cohort

OBJECTIVES

Early testing for HIV and entry into care are crucial to optimise treatment outcomes of HIV-infected patients and to prevent spread of HIV. We examined risk factors for presentation with late or advanced disease in HIV-infected patients in the Netherlands.

METHODS

HIV-infected patients registered in care between January 1996 and June 2014 were selected from the ATHENA national observational HIV cohort. Risk factors for late presentation and advanced disease were analysed by multivariable logistic regression. Furthermore, geographical differences and time trends were examined.

RESULTS

Of 20,965 patients, 53% presented with late-stage HIV infection, and 35% had advanced disease. Late presentation decreased from 62% (1996) to 42% (2013), while advanced disease decreased from 46% to 26%. Late presentation only declined significantly among men having sex with men (MSM; p <0.001), but not among heterosexual males (p=0.08) and females (p=0.73). Factors associated with late presentation were: heterosexual male (adjusted OR (aOR), 1.59; 95% CI 1.44 to 1.75 vs MSM), injecting drug use (2.00; CI 1.69 to 2.38), age ≥ 50 years (1.46; CI 1.33 to 1.60 vs 30-49 years), region of origin (South-East Asia 2.14; 1.80 to 2.54, sub-Saharan Africa 2.11; 1.88 to 2.36, Surinam 1.59; 1.37 to 1.84, Caribbean 1.31; 1.13 to 1.53, Latin America 1.23; 1.04 to 1.46 vs the Netherlands), and location of HIV diagnosis (hospital 3.27; 2.94 to 3.63, general practitioner 1.66; 1.50 to 1.83, antenatal screening 1.76; 1.38 to 2.34 vs sexually transmitted infection clinic). No association was found for socioeconomic status or level of urbanisation. Compared with Amsterdam, 2 regions had higher adjusted odds and 2 regions had lower odds of late presentation. Results were highly similar for advanced disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the overall rate of late presentation is declining in the Netherlands, targeted programmes to reduce late HIV diagnoses remain needed for all risk groups, but should be prioritised for heterosexual males, migrant populations, people aged ≥ 50 years and certain regions in the Netherlands.

Impact of HIV care facility characteristics on the cascade of care in HIV-infected patients in the Netherlands

OBJECTIVE

Successful treatment of people infected with HIV requires that patients are retained in HIV care, use combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) and ultimately reach and sustain viral suppression. Our aim was to identify health facility characteristics associated with these steps in the cascade of HIV care.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

We included data from all adult HIV-1-infected patients who entered care in the Netherlands between 2007 and 2013 (N = 7120). Multivariate logistic regression was used to examine the associations between health facility characteristics and the outcomes 'currently in care', 'initiated cART', and 'viral suppression'.

RESULTS

The proportion of patients 'currently in care' was high in all 26 treatment centres. cART initiation was positively associated with the accreditation of the health facility [OR (odds ratio): 1.62; 95% CI (confidence interval): 1.18-2.23] and the performance of an internal audit in the preceding 3 years (OR: 1.36; 95% CI: 1.02-1.81). The odds of cART initiation were higher in middle-sized (OR: 2.00; 95% CI: 1.25-3.21) and large HIV treatment centres (OR: 1.80; 95% CI: 1.14-2.84) compared with small centres (<300 HIV-infected patients). Viral suppression was negatively associated with the presence of a social worker in the HIV treatment team (OR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.43-0.91).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results confirm that appointing expert HIV treatment centres facilitates retention in care and that a minimum volume requirement may be desirable. Our findings suggest that quality assessment through accreditation and the measurement of performance benefits the delivery of HIV care.

Dispersion of the HIV-1 Epidemic in Men Who Have Sex with Men in the Netherlands: A Combined Mathematical Model and Phylogenetic Analysis

BACKGROUND

The HIV-1 subtype B epidemic amongst men who have sex with men (MSM) is resurgent in many countries despite the widespread use of effective combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). In this combined mathematical and phylogenetic study of observational data, we aimed to find out the extent to which the resurgent epidemic is the result of newly introduced strains or of growth of already circulating strains.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

As of November 2011, the ATHENA observational HIV cohort of all patients in care in the Netherlands since 1996 included HIV-1 subtype B polymerase sequences from 5,852 patients. Patients who were diagnosed between 1981 and 1995 were included in the cohort if they were still alive in 1996. The ten most similar sequences to each ATHENA sequence were selected from the Los Alamos HIV Sequence Database, and a phylogenetic tree was created of a total of 8,320 sequences. Large transmission clusters that included ≥10 ATHENA sequences were selected, with a local support value ≥ 0.9 and median pairwise patristic distance below the fifth percentile of distances in the whole tree. Time-varying reproduction numbers of the large MSM-majority clusters were estimated through mathematical modeling. We identified 106 large transmission clusters, including 3,061 (52%) ATHENA and 652 Los Alamos sequences. Half of the HIV sequences from MSM registered in the cohort in the Netherlands (2,128 of 4,288) were included in 91 large MSM-majority clusters. Strikingly, at least 54 (59%) of these 91 MSM-majority clusters were already circulating before 1996, when cART was introduced, and have persisted to the present. Overall, 1,226 (35%) of the 3,460 diagnoses among MSM since 1996 were found in these 54 long-standing clusters. The reproduction numbers of all large MSM-majority clusters were around the epidemic threshold value of one over the whole study period. A tendency towards higher numbers was visible in recent years, especially in the more recently introduced clusters. The mean age of MSM at diagnosis increased by 0.45 years/year within clusters, but new clusters appeared with lower mean age. Major strengths of this study are the high proportion of HIV-positive MSM with a sequence in this study and the combined application of phylogenetic and modeling approaches. Main limitations are the assumption that the sampled population is representative of the overall HIV-positive population and the assumption that the diagnosis interval distribution is similar between clusters.

CONCLUSIONS

The resurgent HIV epidemic amongst MSM in the Netherlands is driven by several large, persistent, self-sustaining, and, in many cases, growing sub-epidemics shifting towards new generations of MSM. Many of the sub-epidemics have been present since the early epidemic, to which new sub-epidemics are being added.