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Maitland DO, Richter K, Raj RP, Bonaduce A, Nisancioglu KH, Taylor MA, Stephenson TS. Determining sea-level rise in the Caribbean: A shift from temperature to mass control. Sci Rep 2024; 14:10387. [PMID: 38710717 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-60201-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2023] [Accepted: 04/18/2024] [Indexed: 05/08/2024] Open
Abstract
Tropical Small Island Developing States (SIDS), such as those in the Caribbean, are among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, most notably sea-level rise. The current sea-level rise in the Caribbean is 3.40 ± 0.3 mm/year (1993-2019), which is similar to the 3.25 ± 0.4 mm/year global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise (1993-2018). Throughout the year, Caribbean seasonal sea-level variability is found to respond to sea surface temperature variability. Over the past few decades, the trend in Caribbean Sea-level rise is also found to be variable. Satellite altimetry and steric sea-level records of the Caribbean region reveal a shift in the late 2003-early 2004, which separates two distinct periods of sea-level rise. Thermal expansion dominates the sea-level trend from 1993-2003. Following this period, there is an increased trend in sea-level rise, with a dominance of mass changes from 2004-2019, as confirmed by GRACE data. During this period, the sea-level trend is 6.15 ± 0.5 mm/year, which is 67% faster than the most recent estimates of global mean sea-level rise provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (3.69 ± 0.5 mm/year for the period 2006-2018). Despite its reduced importance, increasing temperatures contribute greatly to sea-level rise in the Caribbean region through thermal expansion of ocean water, hence there is a need to limit the current trend of global warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Deron O Maitland
- Department of Physics, The University of the West Indies, Kingston 07, JMAAW15, Jamaica.
- Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, 5020, Bergen, Norway.
| | - Kristin Richter
- NORCE Norwegian Research Center, and Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, 5008, Bergen, Norway
| | - Roshin P Raj
- Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Bergen, 5006, Bergen, Norway
| | - Antonio Bonaduce
- Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Bergen, 5006, Bergen, Norway
| | - Kerim H Nisancioglu
- Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, 5020, Bergen, Norway.
| | - Michael A Taylor
- Department of Physics, The University of the West Indies, Kingston 07, JMAAW15, Jamaica
| | - Tannecia S Stephenson
- Department of Physics, The University of the West Indies, Kingston 07, JMAAW15, Jamaica
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McKeen T, Bondarenko M, Kerr D, Esch T, Marconcini M, Palacios-Lopez D, Zeidler J, Valle RC, Juran S, Tatem AJ, Sorichetta A. High-resolution gridded population datasets for Latin America and the Caribbean using official statistics. Sci Data 2023; 10:436. [PMID: 37419895 PMCID: PMC10328919 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-023-02305-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/20/2023] [Accepted: 06/12/2023] [Indexed: 07/09/2023] Open
Abstract
"Leaving no one behind" is the fundamental objective of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Latin America and the Caribbean is marked by social inequalities, whilst its total population is projected to increase to almost 760 million by 2050. In this context, contemporary and spatially detailed datasets that accurately capture the distribution of residential population are critical to appropriately inform and support environmental, health, and developmental applications at subnational levels. Existing datasets are under-utilised by governments due to the non-alignment with their own statistics. Therefore, official statistics at the finest level of administrative units available have been implemented to construct an open-access repository of high-resolution gridded population datasets for 40 countries in Latin American and the Caribbean. These datasets are detailed here, alongside the 'top-down' approach and methods to generate and validate them. Population distribution datasets for each country were created at a resolution of 3 arc-seconds (approximately 100 m at the equator), and are all available from the WorldPop Data Repository.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tom McKeen
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
| | - Maksym Bondarenko
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - David Kerr
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Thomas Esch
- German Aerospace Centre (DLR), Wessling, Germany
| | | | | | | | - R Catalina Valle
- United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean, Panama, Panama
| | - Sabrina Juran
- United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean, Panama, Panama
| | - Andrew J Tatem
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Alessandro Sorichetta
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra "A. Desio", Università degli Studi di Milano, Milano, Italy
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Unguendoli S, Biolchi LG, Aguzzi M, Pillai UPA, Alessandri J, Valentini A. A modeling application of integrated nature based solutions (NBS) for coastal erosion and flooding mitigation in the Emilia-Romagna coastline (Northeast Italy). THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 867:161357. [PMID: 36603618 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.161357] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2022] [Revised: 12/23/2022] [Accepted: 12/30/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Worldwide, climate change adaptation in coastal areas is a growing challenge. The most common solutions such as seawalls and breakwaters are expensive and often lead to unexpected disastrous effects on the neighboring unprotected areas. In recent years, this awareness has guided coastal managers to adopt alternative solutions with lower environmental impact to protect coastal areas, defined as Nature-Based Solutions (NBSs). NBS are quite popular around the world but are often analyzed and implemented individually at pilot sites. This contribution analyzes the effectiveness of two NBS to mitigate coastal impacts (coastal flooding and erosion) under three historical storms along the Emilia-Romagna coasts and the induced improvements due to their potential integration. Through numerical simulations with XBeach, this study demonstrated that the presence of seagrass meadows of Zostera marina produces an average attenuation of 32 % of the storm peak with a maximum attenuation of 89 % in incoming wave height. Seagrass also mitigates flooded areas and maximum inundation depths by 37 % and 58 % respectively. The artificial dune leads to higher mitigation in terms of inundation of the lagoon (up to 75 %), also avoiding any morphological variations behind it. Seagrass has also been shown to be able to reduce beach erosion volumes up to 55 %. The synergic effect of the two NBS improves the capacity to mitigate both inundation (with a benefit of up to 77 % for flooded area attenuation with respect to cases without any defenses) and coastal erosion. Results of the study suggest that the two NBS will work together to produce co-benefits in terms of preservation of their efficiency, development of habitats for organisms and vegetation species, and thereby offering an important social value in terms of possible tourism, recreation and research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Silvia Unguendoli
- Hydro-Meteo-Climate Structure of the Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna, Arpae-SIMC, Bologna 40122, Italy.
| | - Luis Germano Biolchi
- Hydro-Meteo-Climate Structure of the Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna, Arpae-SIMC, Bologna 40122, Italy
| | - Margherita Aguzzi
- Hydro-Meteo-Climate Structure of the Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna, Arpae-SIMC, Bologna 40122, Italy
| | | | - Jacopo Alessandri
- Hydro-Meteo-Climate Structure of the Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna, Arpae-SIMC, Bologna 40122, Italy; Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Bologna, Bologna 40127, Italy
| | - Andrea Valentini
- Hydro-Meteo-Climate Structure of the Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna, Arpae-SIMC, Bologna 40122, Italy
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Calvopiña M, Romero-Alvarez D, Vasconez E, Valverde-Muñoz G, Trueba G, Garcia-Bereguiain MA, Orlando SA. Leptospirosis in Ecuador: Current Status and Future Prospects. Trop Med Infect Dis 2023; 8:tropicalmed8040202. [PMID: 37104328 PMCID: PMC10141158 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed8040202] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2023] [Revised: 03/09/2023] [Accepted: 03/14/2023] [Indexed: 04/28/2023] Open
Abstract
The location of Ecuador-an equatorial nation-favors the multiplication and dispersal of the Leptospira genus both on the Pacific Coast and in the Amazon tropical ecoregions. Nevertheless, leptospirosis epidemiology has not been fully addressed, even though the disease has been recognized as a significant public health problem in the country. The purpose of this literature review is to update knowledge on the epidemiology and geographical distribution of Leptospira spp. and leptospirosis in Ecuador to target future research and develop a national control strategy. A retrospective literature search using five international, regional, and national databases on Leptospira and leptospirosis including humans, animals, and environmental isolations of the bacteria and the disease incidence in Ecuador published between 1919 and 2022 (103 years) with no restriction on language or publication date was performed. We found and analyzed 47 publications including 22 of humans, 19 of animals, and two of the environments; three of these covered more than one of these topics, and one covered all three (i.e., One Health). Most (60%) of the studies were conducted in the Coastal ecoregion. Twenty-four (51%) were published in international journals, and 27 (57%) were in Spanish. A total of 7342 human and 6314 other animal cases were studied. Leptospirosis was a frequent cause of acute undifferentiated febrile illness in the Coast and Amazon and was associated with rainfall. All three major clusters of Leptospira-pathogenic, intermediate, and saprophytic-were identified from both healthy and febrile humans, the environment, and animals; moreover, nine species and 29 serovars were recorded over the three Ecuadorian ecoregions. Leptospira infections were diagnosed in livestock, companion, and wild animals from the Amazon and the Coast regions along with sea lions from the Galápagos Islands. Microscopic-agglutination test was the diagnostic tool most widely used. Three reviews covering national data on outpatients and inpatients determined the varied annual incidence and mortality rate, with males being more commonly affected. No human cases have been reported in the Galápagos Islands. Genomic sequences of three pathogenic Leptospira were reported. No studies on clinical ground, antibiotic resistance, or treatment were reported, nor were control programs or clinical-practice guidelines found. The published literature demonstrated that leptospirosis was and still is an endemic disease with active transmission in the four geoclimatic regions of Ecuador including the Galápagos Islands. Animal infections, distributed in mainland and insular Ecuador, pose a significant health risk for humans. Nationwide epidemiological surveys-encouraging more research on the fauna and environment with appropriate sampling design on risk factors for human and animal leptospirosis, Leptospira genotyping, increased laboratory capability, and readily available official data-are required to improve our understanding of transmission patterns and to develop effective national intervention strategies with the intention of applying One Health approaches.
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Affiliation(s)
- Manuel Calvopiña
- One Health Research Group, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Las Américas (UDLA), Quito 170124, Ecuador
| | - Daniel Romero-Alvarez
- One Health Research Group, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Las Américas (UDLA), Quito 170124, Ecuador
- Biodiversity Institute and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA
| | - Eduardo Vasconez
- One Health Research Group, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Las Américas (UDLA), Quito 170124, Ecuador
| | - Gabriela Valverde-Muñoz
- Proyecto de Fortalecimiento de la Atención Integral de Personas con Discapacidad, Ministerio de Salud Pública, Quito 170702, Ecuador
| | - Gabriel Trueba
- Institute of Microbiology, Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Quito 170901, Ecuador
| | - Miguel Angel Garcia-Bereguiain
- One Health Research Group, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Las Américas (UDLA), Quito 170124, Ecuador
- Universidad Latinoamerica de Costa Rica, San Jose 11501, Costa Rica
| | - Solon Alberto Orlando
- Instituto Nacional de Investigación en Salud Pública INSPI, Quito 3961, Ecuador
- Universidad Espíritu Santo, Guayaquil 092301, Ecuador
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Calvopiña M, Vásconez E, Coral-Almeida M, Romero-Alvarez D, Garcia-Bereguiain MA, Orlando A. Leptospirosis: Morbidity, mortality, and spatial distribution of hospitalized cases in Ecuador. A nationwide study 2000-2020. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2022; 16:e0010430. [PMID: 35551530 PMCID: PMC9129009 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010430] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2021] [Revised: 05/24/2022] [Accepted: 04/18/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Background In Ecuador, leptospirosis surveillance involves a mandatory notification of all cases and a hospitalization for severe illness. Morbidity and mortality are, nevertheless, underestimated and contribute directly to the status of leptospirosis as a neglected disease. Leptospira spp. is zoonotic in Ecuador with established endemic transmission in the Tropics. Here, we review retrospective national data within the country to aid in control strategies. Methodology/Principal findings In a population-based nationwide study, we analysed morbidity, mortality, and spatial distribution on confirmed hospital-discharged leptospirosis cases from 2000–2020 from a publicly accesible National Database, including males and females of all ages. We computed data for the 24 provinces across the four-geoclimatic regions of Ecuador based on seasonal and monthly variations and calculated rates according to age and sex. The spatial distribution was estimated at the level of ecoregions, provinces, and cantons. A total of 2,584 hospitalizations were recorded over all three continental regions in 22 provinces, except Carchi province and the Galapagos Islands. The annual incidence varied from 0.27 to 2.45 cases per 100,000 inhabitants with ages ranging from 1 to 98 years-old and an overall male/female ratio of 1.92:1. Most hospitalizations and deaths occurred in males ages 25–34 years. We registered 79 fatalities (3.06%); the highest mortality rate was 0.05 per 100,000 inhabitants. More cases clustered in the tropical cantons of central and north of the Coast and in the southern Amazon when compared to the Andes. Conclusions and significance Our findings evidence leptospirosis endemicity and pinpoint the highest incidence within resource-poor tropical settings. The highest incidence occurred in males of adult age, with those also exhibiting the highest mortality. The national incidence rate was stable, but peaks occurred intermittently during the rainy seasons. Thus, strategies aimed at leptospirosis monitoring and control involving the application of preventive measures should consider this season and the aforementioned high-risk groups. Leptospirosis is a neglected tropical disease poorly characterized in Latin American countries like Ecuador. Although this zoonotic disease is considered by the Epidemiology Department of the Ministry of Public Health to be of mandatory notification, an updated document on the patterns of morbidity and mortality or a control strategy do not yet exist. In the present study, we carried out a retrospective analysis of Ecuadorian national data (INEC) on hospitalized cases and deaths from 2000 through 2020 to estimate the trends of morbidity and mortality, and the spatial distribution of this disease throughout its four geoclimatic regions (Pacific coastal, Andes, Amazon, and the Galapagos Islands). The INEC recorded only hospitalized cases, meaning those with severe illness. The spatial distribution was estimated at the ecoregion, province, and canton levels. With a total number of 2,584 hospitalizations, an annual incidence ranging from 0.27 to 2.45 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, and a fatality rate of 3.06% during the period of study. Our findings evidence the endemicity of leptospirosis, particularly within the neglected tropical settings in the Ecuadorian Coast and Amazon regions. Despite the wide geographic distribution of leptospirosis and its severity in terms of incidence, morbidity, and mortality, leptospirosis is not yet considered a “tool-ready” disease for control/elimination and research initiatives.
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Affiliation(s)
- Manuel Calvopiña
- One Health Research Group, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad De Las Américas (UDLA), Quito, Ecuador
- * E-mail: ,
| | - Eduardo Vásconez
- One Health Research Group, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad De Las Américas (UDLA), Quito, Ecuador
| | - Marco Coral-Almeida
- Grupo de Bioquimioinformática GBQ, Facultad de ciencias de la salud, Universidad De Las Américas (UDLA), Quito, Ecuador
| | - Daniel Romero-Alvarez
- One Health Research Group, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad De Las Américas (UDLA), Quito, Ecuador
- Biodiversity Institute and Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, United States of America
| | | | - Alberto Orlando
- Instituto Nacional de Investigación en Salud Pública (INSPI), Quito, Ecuador
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Espinoza-Tenorio A, Ehuan-Noh RG, Cuevas-Gómez GA, Narchi NE, Ramos-Muñoz DE, Fernández-Rivera Melo FJ, Saldívar-Moreno A, Zepeda-Domínguez JA, Pérez-Jiménez JC, Oliveto-Andrade A, Torre J. Between uncertainty and hope: Young leaders as agents of change in sustainable small-scale fisheries. AMBIO 2022; 51:1287-1301. [PMID: 34727363 PMCID: PMC8561361 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-021-01639-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2021] [Revised: 07/23/2021] [Accepted: 09/23/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
The path to sustainable small-scale fisheries (SSF) is based on multiple learning processes that must transcend generational changes. To understand young leaders from communities with sustainable SSF management practices in Mexico, we used in-depth interviews to identify their shared motivations and perceptions for accepting their fishing heritage. These possible future decision-makers act as agents of change due to their organizational and technological abilities. However, young people are currently at a crossroads. Many inherited a passion for the sea and want to improve and diversify the fishing sector, yet young leaders do not want to accept a legacy of complicated socioenvironmental conditions that can limit their futures. These future leaders are especially concerned by the uncertainty caused by climate change. If fishing and generational change are not valued in planning processes, the continuity of fisheries, the success of conservation actions, and the lifestyles of young fishers will remain uncertain.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alejandro Espinoza-Tenorio
- Department of Sustainability Science, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Av. Rancho Polígono 2-A, 24500 Lerma, Campeche Mexico
| | - Romana Gabriela Ehuan-Noh
- Department of Sustainability Science, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Av. Rancho Polígono 2-A, 24500 Lerma, Campeche Mexico
| | | | - Nemer E. Narchi
- Colegio de Michoacán, Cerro de Nahuatzen 85, Fracc. Jardines del Cerro Grande, La Piedad, Michoacán Mexico
| | - Dora Elia Ramos-Muñoz
- Department of Society and Cultura, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Carretera Panamericana y Periférico Sur s/n Barrio María Auxiliadora, 29290 San Cristóbal de Las Casas, Chiapas Mexico
| | | | - Antonio Saldívar-Moreno
- Department of Society and Cultura, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Carretera Panamericana y Periférico Sur s/n Barrio María Auxiliadora, 29290 San Cristóbal de Las Casas, Chiapas Mexico
| | - José Alberto Zepeda-Domínguez
- Universidad Autónoma de Baja California-Facultad de Ciencias Marinas, Carretera Transpeninsular Ensenada - Tijuana No. 3917. Colonia Playitas, CP 22860 Ensenada, Baja California Mexico
| | - Juan Carlos Pérez-Jiménez
- Department of Sustainability Science, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Av. Rancho Polígono 2-A, 24500 Lerma, Campeche Mexico
| | - Alma Oliveto-Andrade
- Department of Sustainability Science, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Av. Rancho Polígono 2-A, 24500 Lerma, Campeche Mexico
| | - Jorge Torre
- Comunidad y Biodiversidad A.C., Isla del Peruano No. 215, CP: 85448 Guaymas, Sonora Mexico
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Abstract
Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), like many other regions in the world, are areas that are prone to hydrometeorological disasters, which threaten livelihoods and cause economic losses. To derive LAC’s status in the field of flood risk-related research, we conducted a bibliometric analysis of the region’s publication record using the Web of Science journal database (WoS). After analysing a total of 1887 references according to inclusion-exclusion criteria, 302 articles published in the last 20 years were selected. The research articles published in the period 2000–2020 revealed that Mexico, Brazil, and certain South American countries such as Chile, Peru, and Argentina are more productive in flood risk research. Scientific research is increasing, and most of the available studies focus on lowland areas. The frequently-used keywords are generic, and there is often verbatim copying from the title of the article, which shows the poor coherence between the title, abstract, and keywords. This limited diversification of keywords is of little use in bibliometric studies, reducing their visibility and negatively impacting the citation count level. LAC flood studies are mainly related to hydrometeorological assessments, flood risk analyses, geomorphological and ecosystem studies, flood vulnerability and resilience approaches, and statistical and geographic information science evaluations. This systematic review reveals that although flood risk research has been important in the last two decades, future research linked with future climatic scenarios is key to the development of realistic solutions to disaster risks.
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Touza J, Lacambra C, Kiss A, Amboage RM, Sierra P, Solan M, Godbold JA, Spencer T, White PCL. Coping and Adaptation in Response to Environmental and Climatic Stressors in Caribbean Coastal Communities. ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2021; 68:505-521. [PMID: 34327556 PMCID: PMC8416820 DOI: 10.1007/s00267-021-01500-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2019] [Accepted: 07/01/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Cumulative and synergistic impacts from environmental pressures, particularly in low-lying tropical coastal regions, present challenges for the governance of ecosystems, which provide natural resource-based livelihoods for communities. Here, we seek to understand the relationship between responses to the impacts of El Niño and La Niña events and the vulnerability of mangrove-dependent communities in the Caribbean region of Colombia. Using two case study sites, we show how communities are impacted by, and undertake reactive short-term responses to, El Niño and La Niña events, and how such responses can affect their adaptive capacity to progressive environmental deterioration. We show that certain coping measures to climate variability currently deliver maladaptive outcomes, resulting in circumstances that could contribute to system 'lock-in' and engender undesirable ecological states, exacerbating future livelihood vulnerabilities. We highlight the significant role of social barriers on vulnerabilities within the region, including perceptions of state abandonment, mistrust and conflicts with authorities. Opportunities to reduce vulnerability include enhancing the communities' capacity to adopt more positive and preventative responses based on demonstrable experiential learning capacity. However, these will require close cooperation between formal and informal organisations at different levels, and the development of shared coherent adaptation strategies to manage the complexity of multiple interacting environmental and climatic pressures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julia Touza
- Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, Wentworth Way, York, YO10 5NG, UK.
- York Environmental Sustainability Institute, University of York, York, YO10 5NG, UK.
| | - Carmen Lacambra
- Grupo Laera, Avenida Carrera 9, No. 113-52 Oficina 1901, PBX 4863358, Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Alexandra Kiss
- Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, Wentworth Way, York, YO10 5NG, UK
| | - Rosa Mato Amboage
- Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, Wentworth Way, York, YO10 5NG, UK
| | - Paula Sierra
- Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras (INVEMAR), Calle 25, n° 2-25, Playa Salguero, Santa Marta, Colombia
| | - Martin Solan
- Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton, Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
| | - Jasmin A Godbold
- Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton, Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Southampton, Highfield Campus, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - Thomas Spencer
- Cambridge Coastal Research Unit, Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EN, UK
| | - Piran C L White
- Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, Wentworth Way, York, YO10 5NG, UK
- Interdisciplinary Global Development Centre, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, UK
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Community Perception and Adaptation to Climate Change in Coastal Areas of Mexico. WATER 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/w13182483] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
Climate change adaptation is an increasingly important topic addressed in the face of the current and expected future impacts by climate change that the social, economic and ecological systems are experiencing worldwide. Despite the advances reported in the literature, adaptation to climate change is still considered a challenge to move from planning to the practical implementation of successful interventions. In this regard, identifying international key barriers, exchanges of experiences and lessons learned may facilitate the progress of the coasts’ sustainable and resilient future. The coast of Mexico is an excellent study area. High population densities occur along the coastal zone, whose main economic activity is related to primary and tertiary sectors. Additionally, a great diversity of coastal ecosystems exists, which are threatened by anthropogenic and hydrometeorological impacts. Under these circumstances, the population is becoming aware of the urgent need to adapt to the consequences of climate change. In this sense, this paper reviews research contributions concerning population perception to climate change and adaptation strategies in Mexico’s coastal zone. The findings highlight critical institutional difficulties and social barriers that have impeded the effective implementation of adaptation strategies to climate change in Mexico and consider steps to address them. However, adaptation strategies that show the prevention culture of some coastal communities have been found and also results of successful projects carried out, especially on mangrove forest and coral reef restoration, which are of essential importance to consider to progress on the path of a successful adaptation to climate change in Mexico.
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Abstract
The Earth’s climate is changing; ice sheets and glaciers are melting and coastal hazards and sea level are rising in response. With a total population of over 300 million people situated on coasts, including 20 of the planet’s 33 megacities (over 10 million people), low-lying coastal areas represent one of the most vulnerable areas to the impacts of climate change. Many of the largest cities along the Atlantic coast of the U.S. are already experiencing frequent high tide flooding, and these events will increase in frequency, depth, duration and extent as sea levels continue to rise at an accelerating rate throughout the 21st century and beyond. Cities in southeast Asia and islands in the Indo-Pacific and Caribbean are also suffering the effects of extreme weather events combined with other factors that increase coastal risk. While short-term extreme events such as hurricanes, El Niños and severe storms come and go and will be more damaging in the short term, sea-level rise is a long-term permanent change of state. However, the effects of sea-level rise are compounded with other hazards, such as increased wave action or a loss of ecosystems. As sea-level rise could lead to the displacement of hundreds of millions of people, this may be one of the greatest challenges that human civilization has ever faced, with associated inundation of major cities, loss of coastal infrastructure, increased saltwater intrusion and damage to coastal aquifers among many other global impacts, as well as geopolitical and legal implications. While there are several short-term responses or adaptation options, we need to begin to think longer term for both public infrastructure and private development. This article provides an overview of the status on adaptation to climate change in coastal zones.
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Turvey ST, Duncan C, Upham NS, Harrison X, Dávalos LM. Where the wild things were: intrinsic and extrinsic extinction predictors in the world's most depleted mammal fauna. Proc Biol Sci 2021; 288:20202905. [PMID: 33715429 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2020.2905] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Preventing extinctions requires understanding macroecological patterns of vulnerability or persistence. However, correlates of risk can be nonlinear, within-species risk varies geographically, and current-day threats cannot reveal drivers of past losses. We investigated factors that regulated survival or extinction in Caribbean mammals, which have experienced the globally highest level of human-caused postglacial mammalian extinctions, and included all extinct and extant Holocene island populations of non-volant species (219 survivals or extinctions across 118 islands). Extinction selectivity shows a statistically detectable and complex body mass effect, with survival probability decreasing for both mass extremes, indicating that intermediate-sized species have been more resilient. A strong interaction between mass and age of first human arrival provides quantitative evidence of larger mammals going extinct on the earliest islands colonized, revealing an extinction filter caused by past human activities. Survival probability increases on islands with lower mean elevation (mostly small cays acting as offshore refugia) and decreases with more frequent hurricanes, highlighting the risk of extreme weather events and rising sea levels to surviving species on low-lying cays. These findings demonstrate the interplay between intrinsic biology, regional ecology and specific local threats, providing insights for understanding drivers of biodiversity loss across island systems and fragmented habitats worldwide.
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Affiliation(s)
- Samuel T Turvey
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK
| | - Clare Duncan
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK.,Centre for Ecology and Conservation, Biosciences, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Cornwall TR10 9FE, UK
| | - Nathan S Upham
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA.,Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA.,School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281, USA
| | - Xavier Harrison
- Biosciences, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Streatham Campus, Exeter EX4 4QD, UK
| | - Liliana M Dávalos
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, New York 11794, USA.,Consortium for Inter-Disciplinary Environmental Research, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794, USA
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12
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Godwyn-Paulson P, Jonathan MP, Hernandez FR, Muthusankar G, Lakshumanan C. Coastline variability of several Latin American cities alongside Pacific Ocean due to the unusual "Sea Swell" events of 2015. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2020; 192:522. [PMID: 32671479 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-020-08469-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/06/2020] [Accepted: 06/29/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
This study aims to report the short-term coastline dynamics and inundation limits of coastal cities along the Eastern Pacific due to the sea swell events that occurred during April to May 2015. The multi-temporal satellite datasets from Landsat such as Enhanced Thematic Mapper (L7 ETM+) and Operational Land Imager/Thermal Infrared Sensor (L8 OLI/TIRS) of different periods before and after the swell events were used to identify the shoreline changes. The satellite images were pre-processed using ERDAS imagine 9.2, and the coastline was digitized in ArcGIS 10.4.1 for ten cities spread across from Mexico to Chile (in Pacific coast) using the spectral water indices, and the shoreline change rate and erosion/accretion pattern at each transect were estimated using the statistical parameters embedded in Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS). The maximum erosion and accretion were observed in El Salvador (268 m) and Huatulco (Mexico) (115 m), respectively. Likewise, the maximum inundation was observed in El Salvador with 268 m and Acapulco (Mexico) with 254 m, and the tide gauge data suggest a possible relation to the bathymetry and the geomorphological conditions of the coast. Overall, the results indicate that the Eastern Pacific Ocean side sea swell events has led to extreme coastal flooding in recent years due to the increase in the mean sea level and the unpredictable variation in El Niño/Southern Oscillation events. Graphical abstract.
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Affiliation(s)
- P Godwyn-Paulson
- Centro Interdisciplinario de Investigaciones y Estudios sobre Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo (CIIEMAD), Instituto Politécnico Nacional (IPN), Calle 30 de Junio de 1520, Barrio la Laguna Ticomán, Del. Gustavo A. Madero, C.P.07340, Ciudad de Mexico (CDMX), Mexico
| | - M P Jonathan
- Centro Interdisciplinario de Investigaciones y Estudios sobre Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo (CIIEMAD), Instituto Politécnico Nacional (IPN), Calle 30 de Junio de 1520, Barrio la Laguna Ticomán, Del. Gustavo A. Madero, C.P.07340, Ciudad de Mexico (CDMX), Mexico.
| | - Francisco Reyes Hernandez
- Centro Interdisciplinario de Investigaciones y Estudios sobre Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo (CIIEMAD), Instituto Politécnico Nacional (IPN), Calle 30 de Junio de 1520, Barrio la Laguna Ticomán, Del. Gustavo A. Madero, C.P.07340, Ciudad de Mexico (CDMX), Mexico
| | - G Muthusankar
- French Institute of Pondicherry, 11 St Louis Street, P.B. 33, Puducherry, 605001, India
| | - C Lakshumanan
- Centre for Remote Sensing, Bharathidasan University, Khajamalai Campus, Tiruchirappalli, 620023, India
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13
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Menéndez P, Losada IJ, Torres-Ortega S, Narayan S, Beck MW. The Global Flood Protection Benefits of Mangroves. Sci Rep 2020; 10:4404. [PMID: 32157114 PMCID: PMC7064529 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-61136-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 120] [Impact Index Per Article: 30.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2019] [Accepted: 02/17/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Coastal flood risks are rising rapidly. We provide high resolution estimates of the economic value of mangroves forests for flood risk reduction every 20 km worldwide. We develop a probabilistic, process-based valuation of the effects of mangroves on averting damages to people and property. We couple spatially-explicit 2-D hydrodynamic analyses with economic models, and find that mangroves provide flood protection benefits exceeding $US 65 billion per year. If mangroves were lost, 15 million more people would be flooded annually across the world. Some of the nations that receive the greatest economic benefits include the USA, China, India and Mexico. Vietnam, India and Bangladesh receive the greatest benefits in terms of people protected. Many (>45) 20-km coastal stretches particularly those near cities receive more than $US 250 million annually in flood protection benefits from mangroves. These results demonstrate the value of mangroves as natural coastal defenses at global, national and local scales, which can inform incentives for mangrove conservation and restoration in development, climate adaptation, disaster risk reduction and insurance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pelayo Menéndez
- IHCantabria - Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria, 39011, Santander, Spain.
- Institute of Marine Sciences, University California, Santa Cruz, CA, 95062, USA.
| | - Iñigo J Losada
- IHCantabria - Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria, 39011, Santander, Spain
| | - Saul Torres-Ortega
- IHCantabria - Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria, 39011, Santander, Spain
| | - Siddharth Narayan
- Institute of Marine Sciences, University California, Santa Cruz, CA, 95062, USA
- Department of Coastal Studies, East Carolina University, 850-NC 345, Wanchese, NC, 27959, USA
| | - Michael W Beck
- Institute of Marine Sciences, University California, Santa Cruz, CA, 95062, USA
- The Nature Conservancy, Santa Cruz, CA, 95062, USA
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14
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Toulkeridis T, Tamayo E, Simón-Baile D, Merizalde-Mora MJ, Reyes –Yunga DF, Viera-Torres M, Heredia M. Climate Change according to Ecuadorian academics–Perceptions versus facts. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2020. [DOI: 10.17163/lgr.n31.2020.02] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
Climate change has become one of the most important topics in each country’s government agendas. The current effects demand quicker actions in order to decrease the speed at which the global warming and climate is changing, which are commonly seen in global agreements to reduce pollution. However, the main changes to face and mitigate such phenomena depends on each country´s decision and not on global agreements as the causes are continent-wide although the effects and magnitudes may be local. One of the key components for an effective adaption and mitigation is the role that the population have over national decisions. For this reason, the level of awareness and knowledge about what is occurring in their surroundings vital, thus the importance of a correct information broadcast and education. For the aforementioned reasons, the current study compares the recent perception of a well-educated Ecuadorean community regarding the climate change worldwide and in Ecuador with the scientific evidence and historical facts, and how it affects its vulnerability to the climate change effects.
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15
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Tauzer E, Borbor-Cordova MJ, Mendoza J, De La Cuadra T, Cunalata J, Stewart-Ibarra AM. A participatory community case study of periurban coastal flood vulnerability in southern Ecuador. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0224171. [PMID: 31652292 PMCID: PMC6814235 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0224171] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2019] [Accepted: 10/06/2019] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Populations in coastal cities are exposed to increasing risk of flooding, resulting in rising damages to health and assets. Adaptation measures, such as early warning systems for floods (EWSFs), have the potential to reduce the risk and impact of flood events when tailored to reflect the local social-ecological context and needs. Community perceptions and experiences play a critical role in risk management, since perceptions influence people's behaviors in response to EWSFs and other interventions. METHODS We investigated community perceptions and responses in flood-prone periurban areas in the coastal city of Machala, Ecuador. Focus groups (n = 11) were held with community members (n = 65 people) to assess perceptions of flood exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and current alert systems. Discussions were audio recorded, transcribed, and coded by topic. Participatory maps were field validated, georeferenced, and digitized using GIS software. Qualitative data were triangulated with historical government information on rainfall, flood events, population demographics, and disease outbreaks. RESULTS Flooding was associated with seasonal rainfall, El Niño events, high ocean tides, blocked drainage areas, overflowing canals, collapsed sewer systems, and low local elevation. Participatory maps revealed spatial heterogeneity in perceived flood risk across the community. Ten areas of special concern were mapped, including places with strong currents during floods, low elevation areas with schools and homes, and other places that accumulate stagnant water. Sensitive populations included children, the elderly, physically handicapped people, low-income families, and recent migrants. Flood impacts included damages to property and infrastructure, power outages, and the economic cost of rebuilding/repairs. Health impacts included outbreaks of infectious diseases, skin infections, snakebite, and injury/drowning. Adaptive capacity was weakest during the preparation and recovery stages of flooding. Participants perceived that their capacity to take action was limited by a lack of social organization, political engagement, and financial capital. People perceived that flood forecasts were too general, and instead relied on alerts via social media. CONCLUSIONS This study highlights the challenges and opportunities for climate change adaptation in coastal cities. Areas of special concern provide clear local policy targets. The participatory approach presented here (1) provides important context to shape local policy and interventions in Ecuador, complimenting data gathered through standard flood reports, (2) provides a voice for marginalized communities and a mechanism to raise local awareness, and (3) provides a research framework that can be adapted to other resource-limited coastal communities at risk of flooding.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erica Tauzer
- Institute for Global Health & Translational Science, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, New York, United States of America
| | - Mercy J Borbor-Cordova
- Facultad de Ingeniería Marítima y Ciencias del Mar, Escuela Superior Politecnica del Litoral (ESPOL), Guayaquil, Guayas Province, Ecuador
| | - Jhoyzett Mendoza
- National Service for Risk Management and Emergencies, Guayaquil, Guayas Province, Ecuador
| | - Telmo De La Cuadra
- National Service for Risk Management and Emergencies, Guayaquil, Guayas Province, Ecuador
| | - Jorge Cunalata
- Universidad Tecnica de Machala, Machala, El Oro Province, Ecuador
| | - Anna M Stewart-Ibarra
- Institute for Global Health & Translational Science, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, New York, United States of America
- Department of Medicine, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, New York, United States of America
- InterAmerican Institute for Global Change Research (IAI), Montevideo, Department of Montevideo, Uruguay
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16
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Menéndez P, Losada IJ, Torres-Ortega S, Toimil A, Beck MW. Assessing the effects of using high-quality data and high-resolution models in valuing flood protection services of mangroves. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0220941. [PMID: 31430317 PMCID: PMC6701829 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0220941] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/09/2018] [Accepted: 07/27/2019] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
The rate of change on coastlines is accelerating from climate change and coastal development. Coastal flooding is a particularly pressing and increasing problem, which affects hundreds of millions of people and damages trillions of US$ in property. Scientists, practitioners and managers must be able to quickly assess flood risk and identify appropriate adaptation and risk reduction measures often with limited data and tools, particularly in developing countries. To inform these decision-making processes, we identify how sensitive flood risk and adaptation analyses are to changes in the resolution of data and models. We further do these comparisons in the context of assess the benefits of an ecosystem-based approach for risk reduction. There is growing interest in these ecosystem-based approaches as cost effective measures for adaptation and risk reduction. We assess flood risks from tropical cyclones and the flood risk reduction benefits provided by mangroves in Pagbilao (the Philippines). Then, we also compare risks and risk reduction (benefits) using different quality data and models, to identify where to invest in in new modeling and data acquisition to improve decision-making. We find that coastal flood risk valuation improves by using high resolution topography and long time series of data on tropical cyclones, while flood reduction benefits of mangroves are better valued by using consistent databases and models along the whole process rather than investing in single measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pelayo Menéndez
- Environmental Hydraulics Institute (IHCantabria), Universidad de Cantabria—Avda, Isabel Torres, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
| | - Iñigo J. Losada
- Environmental Hydraulics Institute (IHCantabria), Universidad de Cantabria—Avda, Isabel Torres, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
| | - Saúl Torres-Ortega
- Environmental Hydraulics Institute (IHCantabria), Universidad de Cantabria—Avda, Isabel Torres, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
| | - Alexandra Toimil
- Environmental Hydraulics Institute (IHCantabria), Universidad de Cantabria—Avda, Isabel Torres, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
| | - Michael W. Beck
- Institute of Marine Sciences, University California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States of America
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17
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De Jesus Crespo R, Wu J, Myer M, Yee S, Fulford R. Flood protection ecosystem services in the coast of Puerto Rico: Associations between extreme weather, flood hazard mitigation and gastrointestinal illness. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2019; 676:343-355. [PMID: 31048165 PMCID: PMC10026149 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.287] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2019] [Revised: 03/22/2019] [Accepted: 04/19/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Floods are becoming increasingly influential in coastal cities due to the intensification of extreme weather events. The impacts of flooding go beyond damages to infrastructure, it also affects human health. During floods, discharge of sewage into streets increases exposure to pathogens causing gastrointestinal (GI) illnesses. A potential strategy for coastal protection during weather hazards is the use of flood protection ecosystem services, but their effectiveness at ameliorating the impact of floods on GI illnesses remain understudied. Here we explore the relationship between extreme rainfall, flood protection ecosystem services, and the occurrence of Medicare claims for gastrointestinal (GI) illnesses in Puerto Rico. We first conducted model averaging to detect variables explaining flood impact for the years (1999-2014), and then used these variables as predictors in a spatio-temporal analysis of GI illness in the same period (1999-2013). Our results show that flood impact varies proportionally with extreme rainfall, and inversely with flood protection ecosystem services, particularly due to the presence of karst soils. The protective effect of karst soils is lost when there is a high percentage of people living in flood prone areas, as suggested by a significant interaction effect between these two variables. In support of our hypotheses, cases of GI illness also spike after extreme rainfall events and are affected by the interaction effect of karst soils and people living in flood prone areas. Our results support the linkage between extreme weather events, flood damages and GI illnesses, and suggests a buffering role of ecosystem services that promote rainfall infiltration. The relevance of these ecosystem services, however, is affected by planning decisions such as residential development in flood prone areas. Our results help inform planning strategies for future weather hazards, accounting for the role of natural and built infrastructure on minimizing flood impacts and human health effects.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - J Wu
- USEPA, ORD, NHERL, RTP, United States of America
| | - M Myer
- USEPA, ORD, NERL, Athens, GA, United States of America
| | - S Yee
- USEPA, ORD, NHERL, GED, United States of America
| | - R Fulford
- USEPA, ORD, NHERL, GED, United States of America
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18
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Beck MW, Losada IJ, Menéndez P, Reguero BG, Díaz-Simal P, Fernández F. The global flood protection savings provided by coral reefs. Nat Commun 2018; 9:2186. [PMID: 29895942 PMCID: PMC5997709 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-04568-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 64] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2015] [Accepted: 05/10/2018] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Coral reefs can provide significant coastal protection benefits to people and property. Here we show that the annual expected damages from flooding would double, and costs from frequent storms would triple without reefs. For 100-year storm events, flood damages would increase by 91% to $US 272 billion without reefs. The countries with the most to gain from reef management are Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Mexico, and Cuba; annual expected flood savings exceed $400 M for each of these nations. Sea-level rise will increase flood risk, but substantial impacts could happen from reef loss alone without better near-term management. We provide a global, process-based valuation of an ecosystem service across an entire marine biome at (sub)national levels. These spatially explicit benefits inform critical risk and environmental management decisions, and the expected benefits can be directly considered by governments (e.g., national accounts, recovery plans) and businesses (e.g., insurance).
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael W Beck
- The Nature Conservancy, University of California, 115 McAllister Way, Santa Cruz, CA, 95060, USA.
- Department of Ocean Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, 95060, USA.
| | - Iñigo J Losada
- Environmental Hydraulics Institute "IHCantabria", Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Cantabria, 39011, Spain
| | - Pelayo Menéndez
- Environmental Hydraulics Institute "IHCantabria", Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Cantabria, 39011, Spain
| | - Borja G Reguero
- The Nature Conservancy, University of California, 115 McAllister Way, Santa Cruz, CA, 95060, USA
- Department of Ocean Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, 95060, USA
| | - Pedro Díaz-Simal
- Environmental Hydraulics Institute "IHCantabria", Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Cantabria, 39011, Spain
| | - Felipe Fernández
- Environmental Hydraulics Institute "IHCantabria", Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Cantabria, 39011, Spain
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19
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Reguero BG, Beck MW, Bresch DN, Calil J, Meliane I. Comparing the cost effectiveness of nature-based and coastal adaptation: A case study from the Gulf Coast of the United States. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0192132. [PMID: 29641611 PMCID: PMC5894966 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0192132] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2017] [Accepted: 01/17/2018] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Coastal risks are increasing from both development and climate change. Interest is growing in the protective role that coastal nature-based measures (or green infrastructure), such as reefs and wetlands, can play in adapting to these risks. However, a lack of quantitative information on their relative costs and benefits is one principal factor limiting their use more broadly. Here, we apply a quantitative risk assessment framework to assess coastal flood risk (from climate change and economic exposure growth) across the United States Gulf of Mexico coast to compare the cost effectiveness of different adaptation measures. These include nature-based (e.g. oyster reef restoration), structural or grey (e.g., seawalls) and policy measures (e.g. home elevation). We first find that coastal development will be a critical driver of risk, particularly for major disasters, but climate change will cause more recurrent losses through changes in storms and relative sea level rise. By 2030, flooding will cost $134–176.6 billion (for different economic growth scenarios), but as the effects of climate change, land subsidence and concentration of assets in the coastal zone increase, annualized risk will more than double by 2050 with respect to 2030. However, from the portfolio we studied, the set of cost-effective adaptation measures (with benefit to cost ratios above 1) could prevent up to $57–101 billion in losses, which represents 42.8–57.2% of the total risk. Nature-based adaptation options could avert more than $50 billion of these costs, and do so cost effectively with average benefit to cost ratios above 3.5. Wetland and oyster reef restoration are found to be particularly cost-effective. This study demonstrates that the cost effectiveness of nature-based, grey and policy measures can be compared quantitatively with one another, and that the cost effectiveness of adaptation becomes more attractive as climate change and coastal development intensifies in the future. It also shows that investments in nature-based adaptation could meet multiple objectives for environmental restoration, adaptation and flood risk reduction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Borja G. Reguero
- Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- The Nature Conservancy, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Michael W. Beck
- Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- The Nature Conservancy, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - David N. Bresch
- Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Juliano Calil
- Department of Ocean Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Imen Meliane
- The Nature Conservancy, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
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20
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Reguero BG, Beck MW, Agostini VN, Kramer P, Hancock B. Coral reefs for coastal protection: A new methodological approach and engineering case study in Grenada. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2018; 210:146-161. [PMID: 29339333 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.01.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2017] [Revised: 01/05/2018] [Accepted: 01/06/2018] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Coastal communities in tropical environments are at increasing risk from both environmental degradation and climate change and require urgent local adaptation action. Evidences show coral reefs play a critical role in wave attenuation but relatively little direct connection has been drawn between these effects and impacts on shorelines. Reefs are rarely assessed for their coastal protection service and thus not managed for their infrastructure benefits, while widespread damage and degradation continues. This paper presents a systematic approach to assess the protective role of coral reefs and to examine solutions based on the reef's influence on wave propagation patterns. Portions of the shoreline of Grenville Bay, Grenada, have seen acute shoreline erosion and coastal flooding. This paper (i) analyzes the historical changes in the shoreline and the local marine, (ii) assess the role of coral reefs in shoreline positioning through a shoreline equilibrium model first applied to coral reef environments, and (iii) design and begin implementation of a reef-based solution to reduce erosion and flooding. Coastline changes in the bay over the past 6 decades are analyzed from bathymetry and benthic surveys, historical imagery, historical wave and sea level data and modeling of wave dynamics. The analysis shows that, at present, the healthy and well-developed coral reefs system in the southern bay keeps the shoreline in equilibrium and stable, whereas reef degradation in the northern bay is linked with severe coastal erosion. A comparison of wave energy modeling for past bathymetry indicates that degradation of the coral reefs better explains erosion than changes in climate and historical sea level rise. Using this knowledge on how reefs affect the hydrodynamics, a reef restoration solution is designed and studied to ameliorate the coastal erosion and flooding. A characteristic design provides a modular design that can meet specific engineering, ecological and implementation criteria. Four pilot units were implemented in 2015 and are currently being field-tested. This paper presents one of the few existing examples available to date of a reef restoration project designed and engineered to deliver risk reduction benefits. The case study shows how engineering and ecology can work together in community-based adaptation. Our findings are particularly important for Small Island States on the front lines of climate change, who have the most to gain from protecting and managing coral reefs as coastal infrastructure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Borja G Reguero
- Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California, 115 McAllister Road, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA; The Nature Conservancy, 115 McAllister Road, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA.
| | - Michael W Beck
- The Nature Conservancy, 115 McAllister Road, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA; Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California, 115 McAllister Road, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA.
| | - Vera N Agostini
- The Nature Conservancy, 255 Alhambra Circle Suite 640, Coral Gables, FL 33134, USA.
| | - Philip Kramer
- The Nature Conservancy, 115 McAllister Road, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA; Florida Institute of Oceanography, 830 1st St S, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA.
| | - Boze Hancock
- The Nature Conservancy, 215 South Ferry Rd., Narragansett, RI 02882, USA.
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21
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Calil J, Reguero BG, Zamora AR, Losada IJ, Méndez FJ. Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI): A multidisciplinary risk index for Latin America and the Caribbean. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0187011. [PMID: 29095841 PMCID: PMC5667813 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0187011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2016] [Accepted: 10/11/2017] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
As the world’s population grows to a projected 11.2 billion by 2100, the number of people living in low-lying areas exposed to coastal hazards is projected to increase. Critical infrastructure and valuable assets continue to be placed in vulnerable areas, and in recent years, millions of people have been displaced by natural hazards. Impacts from coastal hazards depend on the number of people, value of assets, and presence of critical resources in harm’s way. Risks related to natural hazards are determined by a complex interaction between physical hazards, the vulnerability of a society or social-ecological system and its exposure to such hazards. Moreover, these risks are amplified by challenging socioeconomic dynamics, including poorly planned urban development, income inequality, and poverty. This study employs a combination of machine learning clustering techniques (Self Organizing Maps and K-Means) and a spatial index, to assess coastal risks in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) on a comparative scale. The proposed method meets multiple objectives, including the identification of hotspots and key drivers of coastal risk, and the ability to process large-volume multidimensional and multivariate datasets, effectively reducing sixteen variables related to coastal hazards, geographic exposure, and socioeconomic vulnerability, into a single index. Our results demonstrate that in LAC, more than 500,000 people live in areas where coastal hazards, exposure (of people, assets and ecosystems) and poverty converge, creating the ideal conditions for a perfect storm. Hotspot locations of coastal risk, identified by the proposed Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI), contain more than 300,00 people and include: El Oro, Ecuador; Sinaloa, Mexico; Usulutan, El Salvador; and Chiapas, Mexico. Our results provide important insights into potential adaptation alternatives that could reduce the impacts of future hazards. Effective adaptation options must not only focus on developing coastal defenses, but also on improving practices and policies related to urban development, agricultural land use, and conservation, as well as ameliorating socioeconomic conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juliano Calil
- Center for the Blue Economy, Middlebury Institute of International Studies, Monterey, California, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Borja G. Reguero
- Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- The Nature Conservancy, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Ana R. Zamora
- Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Cantabria, Spain
| | - Iñigo J. Losada
- Environmental Hydraulics Institute “IH Cantabria”, Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Cantabria, Spain
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22
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Li AML. Ecological determinants of health: food and environment on human health. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2017; 24:9002-9015. [PMID: 26552789 PMCID: PMC7089083 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-015-5707-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/26/2015] [Accepted: 10/27/2015] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
Human health and diseases are determined by many complex factors. Health threats from the human-animal-ecosystems interface (HAEI) and zoonotic diseases (zoonoses) impose an increasing risk continuously to public health, from those emerging pathogens transmitted through contact with animals, food, water and contaminated environments. Immense challenges forced on the ecological perspectives on food and the eco-environments, including aquaculture, agriculture and the entire food systems. Impacts of food and eco-environments on human health will be examined amongst the importance of human interventions for intended purposes in lowering the adverse effects on the biodiversity. The complexity of relevant conditions defined as factors contributing to the ecological determinants of health will be illuminated from different perspectives based on concepts, citations, examples and models, in conjunction with harmful consequential effects of human-induced disturbances to our environments and food systems, together with the burdens from ecosystem disruption, environmental hazards and loss of ecosystem functions. The eco-health literacy should be further promoting under the "One Health" vision, with "One World" concept under Ecological Public Health Model for sustaining our environments and the planet earth for all beings, which is coincidentally echoing Confucian's theory for the environmental ethics of ecological harmony.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alice M L Li
- College of Life Sciences and Technology, HKU SPACE, Hong Kong SAR, People's Republic of China.
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23
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Bussard A, Corre E, Hubas C, Duvernois-Berthet E, Le Corguillé G, Jourdren L, Coulpier F, Claquin P, Lopez PJ. Physiological adjustments and transcriptome reprogramming are involved in the acclimation to salinity gradients in diatoms. Environ Microbiol 2016; 19:909-925. [DOI: 10.1111/1462-2920.13398] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Adrien Bussard
- UMR Biologie des Organismes et des Ecosystèmes Aquatiques, CNRS 7208-MNHN-UPMC-IRD 207-UCN-UA; 43 rue Cuvier Paris 75005 France
| | - Erwan Corre
- CNRS, UPMC, FR2424, ABiMS, Station Biologique; Roscoff 29680 France
| | - Cédric Hubas
- UMR Biologie des Organismes et des Ecosystèmes Aquatiques, CNRS 7208-MNHN-UPMC-IRD 207-UCN-UA; 43 rue Cuvier Paris 75005 France
| | | | | | - Laurent Jourdren
- Ecole Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, CNRS, Inserm, Institut de Biologie de l'Ecole Normale Supérieure (IBENS), Plateforme Génomique; Paris 75005 France
| | - Fanny Coulpier
- Ecole Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, CNRS, Inserm, Institut de Biologie de l'Ecole Normale Supérieure (IBENS), Plateforme Génomique; Paris 75005 France
| | - Pascal Claquin
- UMR Biologie des Organismes et des Ecosystèmes Aquatiques, CNRS 7208-MNHN-UPMC-IRD 207-UCN-UA, Esplanade de la paix; Caen 14032 France
| | - Pascal Jean Lopez
- UMR Biologie des Organismes et des Ecosystèmes Aquatiques, CNRS 7208-MNHN-UPMC-IRD 207-UCN-UA; 43 rue Cuvier Paris 75005 France
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