A Review of the Statistical and Quantitative Methods Used to Study Alcohol-Attributable Crime

A visual approach for defining the spatial relationships among crashes, crimes, and alcohol retailers: Applying the color mixing theorem to define the colocation pattern of multiple variables

In traffic safety studies, the few scholars who have focused on analyzing disaggregated data obtained results that have been either difficult to explain or demonstrate because they did not provide clear visual maps or utilize statistical tests to quantify the spatial relationships. In order to increase the use of such disaggregated spatial methods for use in traffic safety studies, the current study documents the application of a new RGB (red, green, blue) model which combines the color additive theorem and the kernel density map (KDE) to define crash colocation patterns and the coincidence spaces of related variables. This study contributes to the literature in three major ways: (1) a new RGB model was established and applied in the field of traffic safety; (2) the variable dimensions were expanded from two to three; and, (3) the dimension of uncertainty was also included. When the new RGB model was utilized with data collected in College Station, Texas, the results indicated that the new colocation map is able to clearly and accurately define colocation hotspots of crashes, crimes, and alcohol retailers. As expected, these hotspots are located in areas with many bars, the largest strip malls and busiest intersections. The intensity maps have provided results consistent with the above colocation maps. However, the uncertainty map does not show a relatively higher level of certainty regarding the location of hotspots as we expected because the input of each variable was not related to the highest kernel value. Therefore, future scholars should focus on the colocation and intensity maps while using the uncertainty map as a reference for individual event risk evaluation only.

Assessment of recent alcohol consumption by detecting ethyl glucuronide and ethyl sulphate level among traffic accident patients

Objective: This study aims to explain whether EtG and EtS, which are two non-oxidative ethanol metabolites secreted by the liver and used as markers of alcohol intake related to an incident, were also present in whole blood samples of patients with traffic accident injuries.Methods: EtG and EtS concentrations in all of the whole blood samples were sent to the Forensic Medicine Department of Cukurova University for testing Blood Alcohol Concentrations (BAC) via validated liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometer method.Results: The scope of the study covers 200 patients that were admitted to medical services within 12 h following the incident. Of all patients 16.5% were found to be BAC positive, while 35.5 and 23.5 were positive for EtG and EtS, respectively. All samples with a positive BAC result were also positive for EtG and EtS.Conclusion: Detection of EtG and EtS, minor metabolites along with ethanol in the blood can serve as an objective tool to provide further analysis regarding alcohol-related traffic accidents at emergency services.

The Spatial and Social Patterning of Property and Violent Crime in Toronto Neighbourhoods: A Spatial-Quantitative Approach

Criminal activities are often unevenly distributed over space. The literature shows that the occurrence of crime is frequently concentrated in particular neighbourhoods and is related to a variety of socioeconomic and crime opportunity factors. This study explores the broad patterning of property and violent crime among different socio-economic stratums and across space by examining the neighbourhood socioeconomic conditions and individual characteristics of offenders associated with crime in the city of Toronto, which consists of 140 neighbourhoods. Despite being the largest urban centre in Canada, with a fast-growing population, Toronto is under-studied in crime analysis from a spatial perspective. In this study, both property and violent crime data sets from the years 2014 to 2016 and census-based Ontario-Marginalisation index are analysed using spatial and quantitative methods. Spatial techniques such as Local Moran’s I are applied to analyse the spatial distribution of criminal activity while accounting for spatial autocorrelation. Distance-to-crime is measured to explore the spatial behaviour of criminal activity. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) linear regression is conducted to explore the ways in which individual and neighbourhood demographic characteristics relate to crime rates at the neighbourhood level. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is used to further our understanding of the spatially varying relationships between crime and the independent variables included in the OLS model. Property and violent crime across the three years of the study show a similar distribution of significant crime hot spots in the core, northwest, and east end of the city. The OLS model indicates offender-related demographics (i.e., age, marital status) to be a significant predictor of both types of crime, but in different ways. Neighbourhood contextual variables are measured by the four dimensions of the Ontario-Marginalisation Index. They are significantly associated with violent and property crime in different ways. The GWR is a more suitable model to explain the variations in observed property crime rates across different neighbourhoods. It also identifies spatial non-stationarity in relationships. The study provides implications for crime prevention and security through an enhanced understanding of crime patterns and factors. It points to the need for safe neighbourhoods, to be built not only by the law enforcement sector but by a wide range of social and economic sectors and services.

Testing the impact of local alcohol licencing policies on reported crime rates in England

Background

Excessive alcohol use contributes to public nuisance, antisocial behaviour, and domestic, interpersonal and sexual violence. We test whether licencing policies aimed at restricting its spatial and/or temporal availability, including cumulative impact zones, are associated with reductions in alcohol-related crime.

Methods

Reported crimes at English lower tier local authority (LTLA) level were used to calculate the rates of reported crimes including alcohol-attributable rates of sexual offences and violence against a person, and public order offences. Financial fraud was included as a control crime not directly associated with alcohol abuse. Each area was classified as to its cumulative licensing policy intensity for 2009–2015 and categorised as ‘passive’, low, medium or high. Crime rates adjusted for area deprivation, outlet density, alcohol-related hospital admissions and population size at baseline were analysed using hierarchical (log-rate) growth modelling.

Results

284 of 326 LTLAs could be linked and had complete data. From 2009 to 2013 alcohol-related violent and sexual crimes and public order offences rates declined faster in areas with more ‘intense’ policies (about 1.2, 0.10 and 1.7 per 1000 people compared with 0.6, 0.01 and 1.0 per 1000 people in ‘passive’ areas, respectively). Post-2013, the recorded rates increased again. No trends were observed for financial fraud.

Conclusions

Local areas in England with more intense alcohol licensing policies had a stronger decline in rates of violent crimes, sexual crimes and public order offences in the period up to 2013 of the order of 4–6% greater compared with areas where these policies were not in place, but not thereafter.