Bayesian Modeling of Prion Disease Dynamics in Mule Deer Using Population Monitoring and Capture-Recapture Data

Spatio-temporal changes in chronic wasting disease risk in wild deer during 14 years of surveillance in Alberta, Canada

Disease risk modeling is a key first step to understand the spatio-temporal dynamics of wildlife disease and to direct cost-effective surveillance and management. In Alberta, active surveillance for chronic wasting disease (CWD) in wild cervids began in 1998 with the first case detected in free-ranging cervids in 2005. Following the detection, a herd reduction program was implemented during 2005-2008 and in 2006 the ongoing hunter-based CWD Surveillance Program became mandatory in high-risk Wildlife Management Units (WMU). We used data collected during the CWD surveillance program to 1) document growth in sex-specific CWD prevalence (proportion of deer in sample that is CWD-positive) in hunter-harvest deer in 6 WMUs consistently monitored from 2006 to 2018, 2) document landscape features associated with where CWD-positive compared to CWD-negative deer were removed during hunter harvest and herd reduction in an early (2005-2012) and in a late period (2013-2017), and 3) to map the spatial risk of harvesting a deer infected with CWD in the prairie parklands of Alberta. In the 6 continuously monitored WMUs, risk of a harvested deer being CWD positive increased from 2006 to 2018 with CWD prevalence remaining highest in male mule deer whereas overall growth rate in CWD prevalence was greater in female mule deer, but similar to male white-tailed deer. We found no evidence that the 3-year herd reduction program conducted immediately after CWD was first detected affected the rate at which CWD grew over the course of the invasion. Risk of deer being CWD-positive was the highest in animals taken near small stream drainages and on soils with low organic carbon content in the early period, whereas risk became highest in areas of agriculture especially when far from large river drainages where deer often concentrate in isolated woody patches. The change in the influence of proximity to known CWD-positive cases suggested the disease was initially patchy but became more spatially homogeneous over time. Our results indicate that a targeted-removal program will remove more CWD positive animals compared to hunter harvest. However, the discontinuation of targeted removals during our research program, restricted our ability to assess its long term impact on CWD prevalence.

Inferring Chronic Wasting Disease Incidence from Prevalence Data

Incidence of chronic wasting disease infection showed strong, positive correlation (r≥0.944) with apparent prevalence among female and male mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in seven herds previously studied in Colorado and Wyoming, US. With attention to monitoring method consistency and context, inferring that observed prevalence trends reflect underlying epidemic dynamics in mule deer herds appears justifiable.

HUNTING PRESSURE MODULATES PRION INFECTION RISK IN MULE DEER HERDS

The emergence of chronic wasting disease, an infectious prion disease of multiple deer species, has motivated international calls for sustainable, socially accepted control measures. Here, we describe long-term, spatially replicated relationships in Colorado, US, mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) herds that show hunting pressure can modulate apparent epidemic dynamics as reflected by prevalence trends. Across 12 areas in Colorado studied between 2002-18, those with the largest declines in annual hunting license numbers (pressure) showed the largest increases in the proportion of infected adult (≥2-yr-old) male deer killed by hunters (prevalence); prevalence trends were comparatively flat in most areas where license numbers had been maintained or increased. The mean number of licenses issued in the 2 yr prior best explained observed patterns: increasing licenses lowered subsequent risk of harvesting an infected deer, and decreasing licenses increased that risk. Our findings suggest that harvesting mule deer with sufficient hunting pressure might control chronic wasting disease-especially when prevalence is low-but that harvest prescriptions promoting an abundance of mature male deer contribute to the exponential growth of epidemics.

Harvest strategies for the elimination of low prevalence wildlife diseases

The intensive harvesting of hosts is often the only practicable strategy for controlling emerging wildlife diseases. Several harvesting approaches have been explored theoretically with the objective of lowering transmission rates, decreasing the transmission period or specifically targeting spatial disease clusters or high-risk demographic groups. Here, we present a novel model-based approach to evaluate alternative harvest regimes, in terms of demographic composition and rates, intended to increase the probability to remove all infected individuals in the population during the early phase of an outbreak. We tested the utility of the method for the elimination of chronic wasting disease based on empirical data for reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) in Norway, in populations with (Nordfjella) and without (Hardangervidda) knowledge about exact disease prevalence and population abundance. Low and medium harvest intensities were unsuccessful in eliminating the disease, even at low prevalence. High-intensity harvesting had a high likelihood of eliminating the disease, but probability was strongly influenced by the disease prevalence. We suggest that the uncertainty about disease prevalence can be mitigated by using an adaptive management approach: forecast from models after each harvest season with updated data, derive prevalence estimates and forecast further harvesting. We identified the problems arising from disease surveillance with large fluctuations in harvesting pressure and hence sample sizes. The elimination method may be suitable for pathogens that cause long-lasting infections and with slow epidemic growth, but the method should only be attempted if there is a low risk of reinfection, either by a new disease introduction event (e.g. dispersing hosts) or due to environmental reservoirs. Our simulations highlighted the short time window when such a strategy is likely to be successful before approaching near complete eradication of the population.

Accelerated onset of chronic wasting disease in elk (Cervus canadensis) vaccinated with a PrPSc-specific vaccine and housed in a prion contaminated environment

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal prion disease affecting multiple cervid species. Effective management tools for this disease, particularly in free-ranging populations, are currently limited. We evaluated a novel CWD vaccine in elk (Cervus canadensis) naturally exposed to CWD through a prion-contaminated environment. The vaccine targets a YYR disease-specific epitope to induce antibody responses specific to the misfolded (PrP^Sc) conformation. Female elk calves (n = 41) were captured from western Wyoming and transported to the Thorne-Williams Wildlife Research Center where CWD has been documented since 1979. Elk were held in contaminated pens for 14 to 20 days before being alternately assigned to either a vaccine (n = 21) or control group (n = 20). Vaccinated animals initially received two vaccinations approximately 42 days apart and annual vaccinations thereafter. Vaccination induced elevated YYR-specific antibody titers in all animals. Elk were genotyped for the prion protein gene at codon 132, monitored for clinical signs of CWD through daily observation, for disease status through periodic biopsy of rrectoanal mucosa-associated lympoid tissue (RAMALT), and monitored for YYR-specific serum antibody titres. Mean survival of vaccinated elk with the 132MM genotype (n = 15) was significantly shorter (800 days) than unvaccinated elk (n = 13) of the same genotype (1062 days; p = 0.003). Mean days until positive RAMALT biopsy for 132MM vaccinated elk (6 7 8) were significantly shorter than unvaccinated 132MM elk (990; p = 0.012). There was, however, no significant difference in survival between vaccinated (n = 4) and control (n = 5) elk with the 132ML genotype (p = 0.35) or in timing of positive RAMALT biopsies of 132ML elk (p = 0.66). There was no strong (p = 0.17) correlation between YYR-specific antibody titers and survival time. Determining the mechanism by which this vaccine accelerates onset of CWD will be important to direct further CWD vaccine research.

Chronic wasting disease: an evolving prion disease of cervids

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a relatively new and burgeoning prion epidemic of deer, elk, reindeer, and moose, which are members of the cervid family. While the disease was first described in captive deer, its subsequent discovery in various species of free-ranging animals makes it the only currently recognized prion disorder of both wild and farmed animals. In addition to its expanding range of host species, CWD continues to spread from North America to new geographic areas, including South Korea, and most recently Norway, marking the first time this disease was detected in Europe. Its unparalleled efficiency of contagious transmission, combined with high densities of deer in certain areas, complicates strategies for controlling CWD, raising concerns about its potential for spread to new species. Because there is a high prevalence of CWD in deer and elk, which are commonly hunted and consumed by humans, and since prions from cattle with bovine spongiform encephalopathy have been transmitted to humans causing variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, the possibility of zoonotic transmission of CWD is particularly concerning. Here we review the clinical and pathologic features of CWD and its disturbing epidemiology, and discuss features that affect its transmission, including genetic susceptibility, pathogenesis, and agent strain variability. Finally, we discuss evidence that speaks to the potential for zoonotic transmission of this emerging disease.

Molecular Mechanisms of Chronic Wasting Disease Prion Propagation

Prion disease epidemics, which have been unpredictable recurrences, are of significant concern for animal and human health. Examples include kuru, once the leading cause of death among the Fore people in Papua New Guinea and caused by mortuary feasting; bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and its subsequent transmission to humans in the form of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD), and repeated examples of large-scale prion disease epidemics in animals caused by contaminated vaccines. The etiology of chronic wasting disease (CWD), a relatively new and burgeoning prion epidemic in deer, elk, and moose (members of the cervid family), is more enigmatic. The disease was first described in captive and later in wild mule deer and subsequently in free-ranging as well as captive Rocky Mountain elk, white-tailed deer, and most recently moose. It is therefore the only recognized prion disorder of both wild and captive animals. In addition to its expanding range of hosts, CWD continues to spread to new geographical areas, including recent cases in Norway. The unparalleled efficiency of the contagious transmission of the disease combined with high densities of deer in certain areas of North America complicates strategies for controlling CWD and raises concerns about its potential spread to new species. Because there is a high prevalence of CWD in deer and elk, which are commonly hunted and consumed by humans, the possibility of zoonotic transmission is particularly concerning. Here, we review the current status of naturally occurring CWD and describe advances in our understanding of its molecular pathogenesis, as shown by studies of CWD prions in novel in vivo and in vitro systems.

EVALUATION OF A TEST AND CULL STRATEGY FOR REDUCING PREVALENCE OF CHRONIC WASTING DISEASE IN MULE DEER ( ODOCOILEUS HEMIONUS)

We evaluated a test and cull strategy for lowering chronic wasting disease (CWD) prevalence in a naturally-infected, free-ranging mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus) herd wintering in the town of Estes Park, Colorado, US and in nearby Rocky Mountain National Park. We tested 48-68% of the estimated number of adult (≥1 yr old) deer annually for 5 yr via tonsil biopsy immunohistochemistry (IHC), collecting 1,251 samples from >700 individuals and removing IHC-positive deer. Among males, CWD prevalence during the last 3 yr of selective culling was lower (one-sided Fisher's exact test P=0.014) than in the period prior. In contrast, CWD prevalence among females before culling and after culling were equivalent ( P=0.777). Relatively higher annual testing of males (mean 77%) compared to females (mean 51%) might have contributed to differences seen in responses to management. A more intensive and sustained effort or modified spatial approach might have reduced prevalence more consistently in both sexes. Limitations of this technique in wider management application include cost and labor as well as property access and animal tolerance to repeated capture. However, elements of this approach could potentially be used to augment harvest-based disease management.

Endemic chronic wasting disease causes mule deer population decline in Wyoming

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), and moose (Alces alces shirasi) in North America. In southeastern Wyoming average annual CWD prevalence in mule deer exceeds 20% and appears to contribute to regional population declines. We determined the effect of CWD on mule deer demography using age-specific, female-only, CWD transition matrix models to estimate the population growth rate (λ). Mule deer were captured from 2010-2014 in southern Converse County Wyoming, USA. Captured adult (≥ 1.5 years old) deer were tested ante-mortem for CWD using tonsil biopsies and monitored using radio telemetry. Mean annual survival rates of CWD-negative and CWD-positive deer were 0.76 and 0.32, respectively. Pregnancy and fawn recruitment were not observed to be influenced by CWD. We estimated λ = 0.79, indicating an annual population decline of 21% under current CWD prevalence levels. A model derived from the demography of only CWD-negative individuals yielded; λ = 1.00, indicating a stable population if CWD were absent. These findings support CWD as a significant contributor to mule deer population decline. Chronic wasting disease is difficult or impossible to eradicate with current tools, given significant environmental contamination, and at present our best recommendation for control of this disease is to minimize spread to new areas and naïve cervid populations.

The Ecology of Prions

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) affects cervids and is the only known prion disease readily transmitted among free-ranging wild animal populations in nature. The increasing spread and prevalence of CWD among cervid populations threaten the survival of deer and elk herds in North America, and potentially beyond. This review focuses on prion ecology, specifically that of CWD, and the current understanding of the role that the environment may play in disease propagation. We recount the discovery of CWD, discuss the role of the environment in indirect CWD transmission, and consider potentially relevant environmental reservoirs and vectors. We conclude by discussing how understanding the environmental persistence of CWD lends insight into transmission dynamics and potential management and mitigation strategies.

Systematic review of management strategies to control chronic wasting disease in wild deer populations in North America

Background

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a contagious, fatal prion disease affecting cervids in a growing number of regions across North America. Projected deer population declines and concern about potential spread of CWD to other species warrant strategies to manage this disease. Control efforts to date have been largely unsuccessful, resulting in continuing spread and increasing prevalence. This systematic review summarizes peer-reviewed published reports describing field-applicable CWD control strategies in wild deer populations in North America using systematic review methods. Ten databases were searched for peer-reviewed literature. Following deduplication, relevance screening, full-text appraisal, subject matter expert review and qualitative data extraction, nine references were included describing four distinct management strategies.

Results

Six of the nine studies used predictive modeling to evaluate control strategies. All six demonstrated one or more interventions to be effective but results were dependant on parameters and assumptions used in the model. Three found preferential removal of CWD infected deer to be effective in reducing CWD prevalence; one model evaluated a test and slaughter strategy, the other selective removal of infected deer by predators and the third evaluated increased harvest of the sex with highest prevalence (males). Three models evaluated non-selective harvest of deer. There were only three reports that examined primary data collected as part of observational studies. Two of these studies supported the effectiveness of intensive non-selective culling; the third study did not find a difference between areas that were subjected to culling and those that were not. Seven of the nine studies were conducted in the United States.

Conclusions

This review highlights the paucity of evaluated, field-applicable control strategies for CWD in wild deer populations. Knowledge gaps in the complex epidemiology of CWD and the intricacies inherent to prion diseases currently pose significant challenges to effective control of this disease in wild deer in North America.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12917-016-0804-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.