Impacts of Dams and Global Warming on Fish Biodiversity in the Indo-Burma Hotspot

River regulation and climate change reduce river flows to major Australian floodplain wetland

Freshwater ecosystems, including rivers and floodplain wetlands, face severe stress from unsustainable water resources development, with climate change exerting further pressure. This study compares the relative effects of river regulation and projected climate change on river flows to the semi-arid Lowbidgee Floodplain (3250 km2), the largest wetland ecosystem on the heavily regulated Murrumbidgee River, Australia's second longest river, within the Murray-Darling Basin. We modelled annual natural streamflow in the lower Murrumbidgee River before major dam constructions and water diversions (1890-1927), linking river flows to runoff from the upper Murrumbidgee catchment. Extending this analysis to the full rainfall-runoff dataset (1890-2018), we compared modelled natural flows to observed river flows affected by dams and water withdrawals. Additionally, we modelled climate change impacts on river discharge and overbank flows, which reduced inundation of riparian habitats. Current river regulation has reduced median annual streamflow by 43% from 2565 × 106 m³ to 1490 × 106 m³ during 1958-2018, relative to modelled natural flows, with a more pronounced 55% reduction in the last three decades (1988-2018). The return period of major overbank flows, essential for river-floodplain habitat connectivity, more than doubled from once every 2.0 years to once every 4.4 years (1916-2018). Mean climate change projections indicated an additional 7-10% decrease in median annual streamflow by 2047-2075, relative to 1977-2005. The annual duration of major floods declined from an average of 11.3 days under natural flow conditions to 4.5 days under the current regulated river flow regime, with a further reduction to 1.6-1.8 days (83-85% decrease) projected by 2047-2075, due to climate change. We recommend prioritising mitigation of river regulation effects, as these pose the most immediate threats to riverine ecosystems, including their native biodiversity, in the Murrumbidgee River catchment. Our 'natural flow' model offers critical insights for shaping environmental policy and managing environmental flows to mimic natural flow regimes, supporting the conservation and restoration of freshwater ecosystems, like the Lowbidgee Floodplain wetlands. Our approach is transferable to other large river systems globally, using available or modelled streamflow data.

Bending the curve of global freshwater biodiversity loss: what are the prospects?

Freshwater biodiversity conservation has received substantial attention in the scientific literature and is finally being recognized in policy frameworks such as the Global Biodiversity Framework and its associated targets for 2030. This is important progress. Nonetheless, freshwater species continue to be confronted with high levels of imperilment and widespread ecosystem degradation. An Emergency Recovery Plan (ERP) proposed in 2020 comprises six measures intended to "bend the curve" of freshwater biodiversity loss, if they are widely adopted and adequately supported. We review evidence suggesting that the combined intensity of persistent and emerging threats to freshwater biodiversity has become so serious that current and projected efforts to preserve, protect and restore inland-water ecosystems may be insufficient to avert substantial biodiversity losses in the coming decades. In particular, climate change, with its complex and harmful impacts, will frustrate attempts to prevent biodiversity losses from freshwater ecosystems already affected by multiple threats. Interactions among these threats will limit recovery of populations and exacerbate declines resulting in local or even global extinctions, especially among low-viability populations in degraded or fragmented ecosystems. In addition to impediments represented by climate change, we identify several other areas where the absolute scarcity of fresh water, inadequate scientific information or predictive capacity, and a widespread failure to mitigate anthropogenic stressors, are liable to set limits on the recovery of freshwater biodiversity. Implementation of the ERP rapidly and at scale through many widely dispersed local actions focused on regions of high freshwater biodiversity and intense threat, together with an intensification of ex-situ conservation efforts, will be necessary to preserve native freshwater biodiversity during an increasingly uncertain climatic future in which poorly understood, emergent and interacting threats have become more influential. But implementation of the ERP must be accompanied by measures that will improve water, energy and food security for humans - without further compromising the condition of freshwater ecosystems. Unfortunately, the inadequate political implementation of policies to arrest widely recognized environmental challenges such as climate change do not inspire confidence about the possible success of the ERP. In many parts of the world, the Anthropocene future seems certain to include extended periods with an absolute scarcity of uncontaminated surface runoff that will inevitably be appropriated by humans. Unless there is a step-change in societal awareness of - and commitment to - the conservation of freshwater biodiversity, together with necessary actions to arrest climate change, implementation of established methods for protecting freshwater biodiversity may not bend the curve enough to prevent continued ecosystem degradation and species loss.

Opening the floodgates for invasion-modelling the distribution dynamics of invasive alien fishes in India

Invasive alien species have become the second major threat to biodiversity affecting all three major ecosystems (terrestrial, marine, and freshwater). Increasing drivers such as habitat destruction, expanding horticulture and aquaculture industries, and global pet and food trade have created pathways for exotic species to be introduced leading to severe impacts on recipient ecosystems. Although relatively less studied than terrestrial ecosystems, freshwater ecosystems are highly susceptible to biological invasions. In India, there has been a noticeable increase in the introduction of alien fish species in freshwater environments. In the current study, we aimed to understand how climate change can affect the dynamics of the biological invasion of invasive alien fishes in India. We also evaluated the river-linking project's impact on the homogenization of biota in Indian freshwater bodies. We used species occurrence records with selected environmental variables to assess vulnerable locations for current and future biological invasion using species distribution models. Our study has identified and mapped the vulnerable regions to invasion in India. Our research indicates that the interlinking of rivers connects susceptible regions housing endangered fish species with invasive hotspots. Invasive alien fishes from the source basin may invade vulnerable basins and compete with the native species. Based on the results, we discuss some of the key areas for the management of these invasive alien species in the freshwater ecosystems.

Fish biodiversity declines with dam development in the Lower Mekong Basin

Hydropower dams are a source of renewable energy, but dam development and hydropower generation negatively affect freshwater ecosystems, biodiversity, and food security. We assess the effects of hydropower dam development on spatial-temporal changes in fish biodiversity from 2007 to 2014 in the Sekong, Sesan, and Srepok Basins-major tributaries to the Mekong River. By analyzing a 7-year fish monitoring dataset, and regressing fish abundance and biodiversity trends against cumulative number of upstream dams, we found that hydropower dams reduced fish biodiversity, including migratory, IUCN threatened and indicator species in the Sesan and Srepok Basins where most dams have been constructed. Meanwhile, fish biodiversity increased in the Sekong, the basin with the fewest dams. Fish fauna in the Sesan and Srepok Basins decreased from 60 and 29 species in 2007 to 42 and 25 species in 2014, respectively; while they increased from 33 in 2007 to 56 species in 2014 in the Sekong Basin. This is one of the first empirical studies to show reduced diversity following dam construction and fragmentation, and increased diversity in less regulated rivers in the Mekong River. Our results underscore the importance of the Sekong Basin to fish biodiversity and highlight the likely significance of all remaining free-flowing sections of the Lower Mekong Basin, including the Sekong, Cambodian Mekong, and Tonle Sap Rivers to migratory and threatened fish species. To preserve biodiversity, developing alternative renewable sources of energy or re-operating existing dams to increase power generation are recommended over constructing new hydropower dams.

Changes in the Suitable Habitats of Three Endemic Fishes to Climate Change in Tibet

As one of the most sensitive regions to global climate change, Tibet is subject to remarkable changes in biota over the past decades, including endemic fish species. However, no study has attempted to predict the changes in the distribution of Tibetan fishes, leaving a great blank for aquatic conservation in Tibet. Based on the Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt), this study predicted the changes in the suitable habitats of three endemic fish species, including two species mainly inhabiting the rivers (Glyptosternon maculatum, Oxygymnocypris stewartii) and one species mainly inhabiting lakes (Gymnocypris selincuoensis) in Tibet under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) under two future scenarios (2050 and 2090), and explored the impact of the barrier effects of hydropower projects on the suitable habitats of fish. The results showed that under the four scenarios, the net change in the suitable habitats of the G. maculatum was negative (-2.0--18.8%), while the suitable habitats of the O. stewartii and G. selincuoensis would be expanded, with the net change of 60.0-238.3% and 46.4-56.9%, respectively. Under different scenarios, the suitable habitats of the three species had a tendency to migrate to a higher elevation, and the largest expansion in the range of migration was projected to occur under the 2090-RCP8.5 scenario. In addition, due to the impact of the hydropower projects, the ability of G. maculatum to obtain new suitable habitats from climate change would be reduced by 2.0-8.1%, which was less than the loss induced by climate change (5.5-25.1%), while the suitable habitats of O. stewartii would be reduced by 3.0-9.7%, which was more than the impact of climate change (about 1%). The results of this study have guiding significance for the conservation and management of fish resources diversity in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin and Siling Co basin of Tibet, and also provide a reference for the coordination and scientific planning of hydropower projects in Tibet.

Climate change negative effects on the Neotropical fishery resources may be exacerbated by hydroelectric dams

Climate change is now recognized as a reality and along with human pressures such as river fragmentation by dams, amplifies the threats to freshwater ecosystems and their biodiversity. In the Brazilian portion of the Upper Paraguay River Basin (UPRB) that encompasses the Pantanal, one of the largest tropical wetlands in the world, in addition to the high biodiversity found there, fisheries are an important ecosystem service mostly supported by migratory fishes. We estimated the current range of migratory fish of commercial interest, also assessing the climate change effects predicted on the distribution patterns. Then, we assessed the effects of future climate on fish richness, and combining species ranges with routes blocked by artificial dams investigated possible impacts on fishery and food security in the UPRB. Climate change will induce range contraction between 47% and 100% for the species analyzed, and only four migratory fish may have suitable habitat until the end-of-century. The local richness will reduce about 85% in the basin. River fragmentation by dams acting together with climate change will prevent upstream shifts for most fish species. About 4% of present range and up to 45% of future range of migratory fish should be blocked by dams in UPRB. Consequently, this will also negatively affect fishery yield and food security in the future.

Effects of Dams on Vertebrate Diversity: A Global Analysis

Dams are crucial for water supply in human populations and are becoming more common globally for hydroelectric power generation. Dams alter natural habitats and their biodiversity; however, studies are inconclusive about their effects on them. This study aimed to examine the effects of dams on vertebrates and the determinants of changes in global biodiversity and their relationship with critical areas for conservation. We evaluated the effects of dams on vertebrate richness and abundance. We performed a meta-analysis based on 120 case studies. We evaluated the overall effect on richness and abundance and examined these effects regarding taxa, disturbance type, latitudinal zone, zoogeographic zone, biodiversity hotspots, dam size and purpose, and species extinction risk. We conducted an overall analysis that included all species, and then we conducted separate analyses for terrestrial and aquatic species. Dams had a negative effect on vertebrate richness but not on vertebrate abundance. These effects were influenced by larger dams with fragmentation and were more pronounced within hotspots and in countries with a low species extinction risk. Such negative effects were explained by terrestrial vertebrates (particularly birds and mammals) because species richness and the abundance of aquatic vertebrates (fish) were not affected by dams in any case. Our results showed that habitat fragmentation created by large dams changes vertebrate communities, negatively affecting species richness in some areas of conservation concern. We propose implementing reservoirs in areas where they would have a lower impact on biodiversity and avoiding large dams in priority areas for conservation and where endangered species inhabit.

Natal origin and migration pathways of Mekong catfish (Pangasius krempfi) using strontium isotopes and trace element concentrations in environmental water and otoliths

To improve our knowledge of the migration pathway of a highly threatened fish species along the Mekong River, strontium isotope ratios (87Sr/86Sr) and 18 trace element concentrations were measured in the water and in the otoliths of an anadromous catfish, Pangasius krempfi, to infer its natal origin and potential migration pathways. Water was sampled at 18 locations along the mainstream, tributaries and distributaries of the Mekong River. To check for accuracy and precision, measurements of the 87Sr/86Sr ratios and trace element concentrations were then compared in two laboratories that use different analytical methods. Differences in trace element concentrations between locations were not significant and could not, therefore, be used to discriminate between migration pathways. However, the Mekong mainstream, tributaries and distributaries could all be discriminated using Sr isotopes. The 87Sr/86Sr profiles recorded in P. krempfi otoliths showed that there were three contingents with obligate freshwater hatching and variable spawning sites along the Mekong mainstream, from Phnom Penh (Cambodia) to Nong Khai (Thailand) or further. After hatching, the fish migrated more or less rapidly to the Mekong Delta and then settled for most of their lifetime in brackish water. Spawning habitats and migration routes may be threatened by habitat shifts and the increasing number of hydropower dams along the river, especially the contingents born above Khone Falls (Laos). The conservation of P. krempfi, as well as other migratory fish in the Mekong River, requires agreements, common actions and management by all countries along the Mekong River. This study highlighted the importance of using both Sr/Ca and 87Sr/86Sr ratios to understand life history of anadromous fishes as the 87Sr/86Sr ratio in the water was shown to be less effective than the Sr/Ca ratio in identifying movements between different saline areas.

The role of connectivity in the interplay between climate change and the spread of alien fish in a large Mediterranean river

Understanding how global change and connectivity will jointly modify the distribution of riverine species is crucial for conservation biology and environmental management. However, little is known about the interaction between climate change and fragmentation and how movement barriers might impede native species from adjusting their distributions versus limit the further spread of alien species. In this study, we modelled the current and future distributions of 11 native and five alien fishes in the large and heavily fragmented Ebro River, located within the Mediterranean region, which has many freshwater endemics severely threatened by global change. We considered 10 climate change models and five modelling algorithms and assessed the effects of connectivity on the accessibility of future suitable habitats. Thereby, we identify most conflict-prone river reaches, that is, where barriers pose a particular trade-off between isolating and negatively impacting native species versus potentially reducing the risk of alien species spread. Our results projected upstream habitat shifts for the vast majority of the species. Climate change affected species differently, with alien species generally showing larger habitat gains compared to natives. Most pronounced distributional changes (i.e. losses of native species and gains of alien species) and compositional turnover might be expected in the lower and mid reaches of large tributaries of the Ebro River. The role of anthropogenic barriers in this context is often ambiguous but rather unfavourable, as they not only restrict native fishes but also alter stream habitats and flow conditions. However, with our spatial modelling framework, we could identify specific river reaches where the connectivity trade-off in the context of climate change is particularly relevant. Overall, our findings emphasize the importance of the complex effects that climate change, riverine connectivity and alien species are expected to impose on river communities and the urgent need to adapt management strategies accordingly.

Multiple threats imperil freshwater biodiversity in the Anthropocene

Appropriation of fresh water to meet human needs is growing, and competition among users will intensify in a warmer and more crowded world. This essay explains why freshwater ecosystems are global hotspots of biological richness, despite a panoply of interacting threats that jeopardize biodiversity. The combined effects of these threats will soon become detrimental to humans since provision of ecosystem services, such as protein from capture fisheries, can only be sustained if waters remain healthy. Climate change poses an insidious existential threat to freshwater biodiversity in the Anthropocene, but immediate risks from dams, habitat degradation and pollution could well be far greater.

Impacts of Mainstream Hydropower Dams on Fisheries and Agriculture in Lower Mekong Basin

The riverine ecosystems of the Mekong River Basin possess the world’s most productive inland fishery and provide highly productive food crops for millions of people annually. The development of hydropower potential in the Mekong River has long been of interest to governments in the region. Among the existing 64 dams, 46 dams have been built in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) to produce up to 8650 MW of electricity. Additionally, of the 123 proposed built hydropower dams, eleven hydropower plants have been nominated for the river mainstream and are expected to install a total of 13,000 MW in the LMB countries. However, serious concerns have intensified over the potential negative economic consequences, especially on fisheries and agriculture in Cambodia and Vietnam. To date, most of the concerns have concentrated on the impacts on hydrology, environment, livelihood, and diversity in the LMB attributed to hydropower development. This paper, however, discusses the fishery and agricultural sectors of the LMB and focuses on the downstream floodplains of Cambodia and Vietnam. The dam construction has caused greater losses of biodiversity and fisheries than climate change in the LMB. The reduction of 276,847 and 178,169 t of fish, 3.7% and 2.3% of rice, 21.0% and 10.0% of maize will contribute to a decrease of 3.7% and 0.3% of the GDP of Cambodia and Vietnam, respectively. Lao PDR may benefit the most revenue from electricity generation than the other country in the LMB, as most of the proposed dams are projected in the country. Cambodia burdens 3/4 of the reduction of total capture fishery destruction, whilst Lao PDR, Thailand, and Vietnam endure the remaining 1/3 losses. The tradeoff analyses reveal that losses of capture fisheries, sediment or nutrients, and social mitigation costs are greater than the benefits from electricity generation, improved irrigation, and flood control of the LMB region. The socioeconomic and environmental damage caused by hydropower dams in developing countries, including the Mekong, is greater than the early costs in North America and Europe. It is proposed that dam construction for hydropower in the Mekong River, as well as other rivers in developing countries, should be gradually removed and shifted toward solar, wind, and other renewable resources.

Predicting impacts of future climate change and hydropower development towards habitats of native and non-native fishes

Climate change and hydropower development are two primary stressors affecting riverine ecosystems and both stressors facilitate invasions by non-native species. However, little study has focused on how habitats of native and non-native fishes may be affected by independent or combined impacts of such stressors. Here we used the Jinsha River as an example to predict habitat change and distributional shift of native and non-native fishes with species distribution models. The Jinsha River Basin has nearly 40 cascade dams constructed or planned and located in the Tibetan Plateau, which is sensitive to future climate change. Two climate change scenarios and future hydropower development were combined to produce five scenarios of future changes. Under the impacts of independent extreme climate change or hydropower development, non-native fishes showed greater habitat gain in total, while native fishes shifted their distribution into tributaries and higher elevations, and impacts were stronger in combined scenarios. Habitat overlap between the two groups also increased in future scenarios. Certain fish traits correlated with stressors in habitat change prediction. River basins with hydropower development were shown to face higher risk of non-native fishes invasion under future climate change. As the most biodiverse river basins globally are threatened by hydropower development, our results emphasize the importance of regulating non-native fish introduction in reservoirs. Our approaches are also applicable to other systems globally to better understand how hydropower development and climate change may increase invasion risk, and therefore help conserve native species effectively.

Extended Water-Level Drawdowns in Dammed Rivers Enhance Fish Habitat: Environmental Pool Management in the Upper Mississippi River

Environmental Pool Management (EPM) can improve ecosystem function in rivers by restoring aspects of the natural flow regime lost to dam construction. EPM recreates summer baseflow conditions and promotes the growth of terrestrial vegetation which is inundated in the fall, thereby improving habitat heterogeneity for many aquatic taxa. A three-year experiment was conducted wherein terrestrial floodplain areas were dewatered through EPM water-level reductions and the resulting terrestrial vegetation was (1) allowed to remain or (2) removed in paired plots in Mississippi River pool 25. Fish assemblage and abundance were quantified in paired plots after inundation. Abundances of many fish species were greater in vegetated plots, especially for species that utilize vegetation during portions of their life history. Fish assemblages varied more between plot types when the magnitude of EPM water-level drawdowns was greater, which produced greater vegetation growth. Young-of-year individuals, especially from small, early maturing species and/or species reliant on vegetation for refuge, feeding, or life history, utilized vegetated plots more than devegetated plots. Vegetation growth produced under EPM was heavily used by river fishes, including young-of-year individuals, which may ultimately positively influence recruitment. Increased habitat heterogeneity may mitigate some of the negative impacts of dam construction and water-level regulation on river fishes. Annual variability in vegetation responses that occurs under EPM enhances natural environmental variability which could ultimately contribute to increased fish diversity. Low-cost programs like EPM can be implemented as a part of adaptive management plans to help maintain biodiversity and ecosystem health in anthropogenically altered rivers.