Worldwide Increase of Obesity Is Related to the Reduced Opportunity for Natural Selection

Microevolutionary hypothesis of the obesity epidemic

The obesity epidemic represents potentially the largest phenotypic change in Homo sapiens since the origin of the species. Despite obesity's high heritability, it is generally presumed a change in the gene pool could not have caused the obesity epidemic. Here we advance the hypothesis that a rapid change in the obesogenic gene pool has occurred second to the introduction of modern obstetrics dramatically altering evolutionary pressures on obesity-the microevolutionary hypothesis of the obesity epidemic. Obesity is known to increase childbirth-related mortality several fold. Prior to modern obstetrics, childbirth-related mortality occurred in over 10% of women in their lifetime. After modern obstetrics, this mortality reduced to a fraction of a percent, thereby lifting a strong negative selection pressure. Regression analysis of data for ~ 190 countries was carried out to examine associations between 1990 lifetime maternal death rates (LMDR) and current obesity rates. Multivariate regression showed LMDR correlated more strongly with national obesity rates than GDP, calorie intake and physical inactivity. Analyses controlling for confounders via partial correlation show that LMDR explains approximately 11% of the variability of obesity rate between nations. For nations with LMDR above the median (>0.45%), LMDR explains 33% of obesity variance, while calorie intake, GDP and physical inactivity show no association with obesity in these nations. The microevolutionary hypothesis offers a parsimonious explanation of the global nature of the obesity epidemic.

A cross-sectional study of medial longitudinal arch development in children with different BMI

Introduction

The influence of excess weight on the development of children's feet remains a subject of debate. To further elucidate whether this relation occurs, this study compared arch morphology and flexibility in three groups of children: underweight, normal, and overweight.

Methods

In total, 1,532 children (807 boys, 725 girls; age range 7-11 years) participated in the study. The researchers measured the participants' height and weight, calculated their body mass index, and categorized their weight status as underweight, normal weight, or overweight. A three-dimensional foot model was taken using a three-dimensional plantar scanner under non-weight-bearing and weight-bearing conditions to obtain arch morphometric indices (arch index and arch volume) and arch flexibility index (arch volume index).

Results

Analysis of the data showed that the arch index was higher in overweight children compared to underweight and normal weight children (p < 0.05), but the differences in arch volume and arch volume index in overweight children compared to underweight and normal weight children were not statistically significant (p > 0.05). All children were divided into flatfoot, normal, and pes cavus groups according to arch index, and the arch volume index was statistically significant (p < 0.01).

Conclusions

Overweight was not absolutely associated with arch structure and arch flexibility in children from a three-dimensional perspective. Arch development is a long-term process, and it is not clear whether being overweight has an effect on soft tissue or bone formation. Future studies will focus on the effects of long-term overweight on foot structure and arch flexibility in children.

Modern medical services, a double-edged sword manages symptoms, but accumulates genetic background of cardiovascular diseases: A cross populational analysis of 217 countries

Background and Aims

Through reduced natural selection, measured with Biological State Index (I bs), modern medicine enables most people to survive well beyond the reproductive lifespan leading to deleterious gene accumulation in population. This study explored the role of reduced natural selection in increasing cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence worldwide.

Methods

Country-specific estimates of CVD incidence and the index of reduced natural selection were captured for analysis of their correlation. Aging, affluence, obesity prevalence, and urbanization were considered as the potential confounders in the analyses.

Results

Worldwide, I bs was significantly correlated with CVD incidence in the bivariate correlation analyses. This relationship remains when the contributing effects from aging, affluence, obesity prevalence, and urbanization are removed in partial correlation model. Multiple linear regression (enter) shows that I bs is a significant predictor of CVD incidence. Stepwise multiple linear regression selects I bs as the variable having the second greatest influence on CVD incidence after ageing. I bs showed a significantly greater correlation with CVD incidence in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) than in high-income countries.

Conclusion

Worldwide, through reducing natural selection, the side effects of healthcare services may have been partially contributing to the increase of CVD incidence worldwide with special regard to LMICs.

Although in shortage, nursing workforce is still a significant contributor to life expectancy at birth

OBJECTIVES

Previous studies have not fully reported the strength and independency of the correlation of nursing workforce to life expectancy. This study advances that nursing workforce is a major independent contributor to life expectancy at birth (LEB) globally and regionally.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional study was conducted at population level.

SAMPLE

Ecological data were extracted from the United Nations agencies for 215 populations. Each population is considered a research subject.

MEASUREMENTS

The correlation between nursing workforce and LEB was analyzed with scatter plots, bivariate correlation, partial correlation, and multiple linear regression analyses, Analysis of Variance post hoc and independent T-test. Economic affluence, urban lifestyle and obesity were included as the potential confounders in this study.

INTERVENTION

Not applicable RESULTS: Nursing workforce correlated to LEB and this relationship remained regardless of the competition of economic affluence, urbanization, and obesity. Second to economic affluence, nursing workforce showed the greatest influence on LEB. In total, 64.50% of LEB was explained in this study. Nursing workforce was a determinant of regional variations of LEB.

CONCLUSIONS

Nursing workforce may be a significant contributor to LEB globally and regionally. This contribution was independent of the potential confounding effects of economic affluence, urbanization, and obesity.

Platelet CFTR inhibition enhances arterial thrombosis via increasing intracellular Cl- concentration and activation of SGK1 signaling pathway

Platelet hyperactivity is essential for thrombus formation in coronary artery diseases (CAD). Dysfunction of the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) in patients with cystic fibrosis elevates intracellular Cl- levels ([Cl-]i) and enhanced platelet hyperactivity. In this study, we explored whether alteration of [Cl-]i has a pathological role in regulating platelet hyperactivity and arterial thrombosis formation. CFTR expression was significantly decreased, while [Cl-]i was increased in platelets from CAD patients. In a FeCl3-induced mouse mesenteric arteriole thrombosis model, platelet-specific Cftr-knockout and/or pre-administration of ion channel inhibitor CFTRinh-172 increased platelet [Cl-]i, which accelerated thrombus formation, enhanced platelet aggregation and ATP release, and increased P2Y12 and PAR4 expression in platelets. Conversely, Cftr-overexpressing platelets resulted in subnormal [Cl-]i, thereby decreasing thrombosis formation. Our results showed that clamping [Cl-]i at high levels or Cftr deficiency-induced [Cl-]i increasement dramatically augmented phosphorylation (Ser422) of serum and glucocorticoid-regulated kinase (SGK1), subsequently upregulated P2Y12 and PAR4 expression via NF-κB signaling. Constitutively active mutant S422D SGK1 markedly increased P2Y12 and PAR4 expression. The specific SGK1 inhibitor GSK-650394 decreased platelet aggregation in wildtype and platelet-specific Cftr knockout mice, and platelet SGK1 phosphorylation was observed in line with increased [Cl-]i and decreased CFTR expression in CAD patients. Co-transfection of S422D SGK1 and adenovirus-induced CFTR overexpression in MEG-01 cells restored platelet activation signaling cascade. Our results suggest that [Cl-]i is a novel positive regulator of platelet activation and arterial thrombus formation via the activation of a [Cl-]i-sensitive SGK1 signaling pathway. Therefore, [Cl-]i in platelets is a novel potential biomarker for platelet hyperactivity, and CFTR may be a potential therapeutic target for platelet activation in CAD.

Significantly different roles of economic affluence in sex-specific obesity prevalence rates: understanding more modifications within female body weight management

Socioeconomic status has been associated with obesity prevalence increase in both males and females worldwide. We examined the magnitude of the difference between the two relationships and explored the independence of both relationships. Country specific data on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, sex-specific obesity prevalence rates, urbanisation, total calories availability and level of obesity, genetic background accumulation (measured by the Biological State Index, I_bs) were obtained for 191 countries. Curvilinear regressions, bivariate and partial correlations, linear mixed models and multivariate linear regression analyses were used to examine the relationship between GDP and obesity prevalence rates in males and females respectively. Fisher’s r-to-z transformation, F-test and R² increment in multivariate regression were used to compare results for males and females. GDP significantly correlated with sex-specific obesity prevalence rates, but significantly more strongly with male obesity prevalence in bivariate correlation analyses. These relationships remained independent of calories availability, I_bs and urbanization in partial correlation model. Stepwise multiple regression identified that GDP was a significant predictor of obesity prevalence in both sexes. Multivariate stepwise regression showed that, when adding GDP as an obesity prevalence predictor, the absolute increment of R² in male fit model (0.046) was almost four (4) times greater than the absolute increment in female model fit (0.012). The Stepwise analyses also revealed that 68.0% of male but only 37.4% of female obesity prevalence rates were explained by the total contributing effects of GDP, I_bs, urbanization and calories availability. In both Pearson’s r and nonparametric analyses, GDP contributes significantly more to male obesity than to female obesity in both developed and developing countries. GDP also determined the significant regional variation in male, but not female obesity prevalence. GDP may contribute to obesity prevalence significantly more in males than in females regardless of the confounding effects of I_bs, urbanization and calories. This may suggest that aetiologies for female obesity are much more complex than for males and more confounders should be included in the future studies when data are available.

Moral foundations tracked over 200 years of lexicographic data, and their predictors

The prediction that reduction of negative selection decreases group-level competitiveness, as reflected in increased individual-focused and diminished group-focused moral foundations, is tested. To measure this hypothesized shift in moral foundations, we conduct a culturomic analysis of the utilization frequencies of items sourced from the moral foundations item pool, tracked among Britannic populations from 1800 to 1999 using Google Ngram Viewer. The resultant higher-order factor, which tracks increasing individualizing values and decreasing binding values, is termed Asabiyyah (capturing social cohesion and collective purpose). Two predictors of this factor are examined: change in the strength of intergroup competition and change in levels of indicators of developmental instability. Both the strength of intergroup competition and levels of developmental instability associate with Asabiyyah. Rising developmental instability mediates the impact of inter-group competition, indicating that reduced between-group competition might have relaxed negative selection against mutations, which might reduce Asabiyyah via their effects on inter-genomic transactions. These results must be interpreted carefully, given the clear real-world evidence that explicit commitment to group-oriented values often features in harmful and maladaptive social and political ideologies of an extreme character.

Healthcare services relaxing natural selection may contribute to increase of dementia incidence

Ageing and genetic traits can only explain the increasing dementia incidence partially. Advanced healthcare services allow dementia patients to survive natural selection and pass their genes onto the next generation. Country-specific estimates of dementia incidence rates (all ages and 15-49 years old), Biological State Index expressing reduced natural selection (Is), ageing indexed by life expectancy e(65), GDP PPP and urbanization were obtained for analysing the global and regional correlations between reduced natural selection and dementia incidence with SPSS v. 27. Worldwide, Is significantly, but inversely, correlates with dementia incidence rates for both all ages and 15-49 years old in bivariate correlations. These relationships remain inversely correlated regardless of the competing contributing effects from ageing, GDP and urbanization in partial correlation model. Results of multiple linear regression (enter) have shown that Is is the significant predictor of dementia incidence among all ages and 15-49 years old. Subsequently, Is was selected as the variable having the greatest influence on dementia incidence in stepwise multiple linear regression. The Is correlated with dementia incidence more strongly in developed population groupings. Worldwide, reduced natural selection may be yet another significant contributor to dementia incidence with special regard to developed populations.

Large household reduces dementia mortality: A cross-sectional data analysis of 183 populations

BACKGROUND

Large households/families may create more happiness and offer more comprehensive healthcare among the members. We correlated household size to dementia mortality rate at population level for analysing its protecting role against dementia mortality.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cross-sectional study. Dementia specific mortality rates of the 183 member states of World Health Organization were calculated and matched with the respective country data on household size, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), urban population and ageing. Scatter plots were produced to explore and visualize the correlations between household size and dementia mortality rates. Pearson's and nonparametric correlations were used to evaluate the strength and direction of the associations between household size and all other variables. Partial correlation of Pearson's approach was used to identify that household size protects against dementia regardless of the competing effects from ageing, GDP and urbanization. Multiple regression was used to identify significant predictors of dementia mortality.

RESULTS

Household size was in a negative and moderately strong correlation (r = -0.6034, p < 0.001) with dementia mortality. This relationship was confirmed in both Pearson r (r = - 0.524, p<0.001) and nonparametric (rho  =  -0.579, p < 0.001) analyses. When we controlled for the contribution of ageing, socio-economic status and urban lifestyle in partial correlation analysis, large household was still in inverse and significant correlation to dementia mortality (r = -0.331, p <0.001). This suggested that, statistically, large household protect against dementia mortality regardless of the contributing effects of ageing, socio-economic status and urban lifestyle. Stepwise multiple regression analysis selected large household as the variable having the greatest contribution to dementia mortality with R2 = 0.263 while ageing was placed second increasing R2 to 0.259. GDP and urbanization were removed as having no statistically significant influence on dementia mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

While acknowledging ageing, urban lifestyle and greater GDP associated with dementia mortality, this study suggested that, at population level, household size was another risk factor for dementia mortality. As part of dementia prevention, healthcare practitioners should encourage people to increase their positive interactions with persons from their neighbourhood or other fields where large household/family size is hard to achieve.

Total Meat Intake is Associated with Life Expectancy: A Cross-Sectional Data Analysis of 175 Contemporary Populations

Background

The association between a plant-based diet (vegetarianism) and extended life span is increasingly criticised since it may be based on the lack of representative data and insufficient removal of confounders such as lifestyles.

Aim

We examined the association between meat intake and life expectancy at a population level based on ecological data published by the United Nations agencies.

Methods

Population-specific data were obtained from 175 countries/territories. Scatter plots, bivariate, partial correlation and linear regression models were used with SPSS 25 to explore and compare the correlations between newborn life expectancy (e₍₀₎), life expectancy at 5 years of life (e₍₅₎) and intakes of meat, and carbohydrate crops, respectively. The established risk factors to life expectancy – caloric intake, urbanization, obesity and education levels – were included as the potential confounders.

Results

Worldwide, bivariate correlation analyses revealed that meat intake is positively correlated with life expectancies. This relationship remained significant when influences of caloric intake, urbanization, obesity, education and carbohydrate crops were statistically controlled. Stepwise linear regression selected meat intake, not carbohydrate crops, as one of the significant predictors of life expectancy. In contrast, carbohydrate crops showed weak and negative correlation with life expectancy.

Conclusion

If meat intake is not incorporated into nutrition science for predicting human life expectancy, results could prove inaccurate.

Gluten consumption may contribute to worldwide obesity prevalence

Gluten consumption has been controversially associated with obesity in previous studies. We sought to examine this association at the worldwide level.

Country specific data were obtained from 168 countries. Scatter plots, bivariate, partial correlation and multiple linear regression models were used to explore and compare the coincidence between obesity prevalence and consumption of gluten, non-gluten cereal protein and total cereal protein respectively. The established risk factors of obesity: caloric intake, sedentary lifestyle, urbanization, socioeconomic status, meat protein intake and sugar consumption were included in analyses as potential confounders. The 168 countries were also stratified into developing and developed country groupings for further examination of the relationships.

Worldwide, bivariate correlation analyses revealed that the strength and direction of correlations between all variables (independent, dependent and potential confounders) were at similar levels. Obesity prevalence was positively correlated to gluten consumption but was negatively correlated to consumption of non-gluten cereal protein, and was in almost nil correlation to total cereal protein consumption. These relationships were similar across all countries (n= 168), developed country grouping (N=44) and developing country grouping (n=124). When caloric intake, Gross Domestic Product at Purchasing Power Parity, sedentary lifestyle and urbanization were kept statistically constant in the partial correlation analysis, obesity was significantly correlated to gluten consumption in all countries, developed country grouping and developing country grouping, and was significantly but inversely and weakly correlated to non-gluten cereal protein in all countries and developing countries, and was in almost nil correlation to total cereal protein in all country groupings. Globally, stepwise multiple regression analysis, when all the independent variables and potential confounding factors were included, selected consumption of sugar as the variable having the greatest influence on obesity with R2 = 0.510, while gluten was placed second increasing R2 to 0.596. Gluten consumption may have been emerging as an inconspicuous, but significant cause of obesity. While Westernization has driven the diet patterns worldwide to incorporate more gluten crops, obesity prevalence projection methods may estimate future obesity rates poorly if gluten consumption is not considered.

Is dietary vitamin B intake associated with weight disorders in children and adolescents? The weight disorders survey of the CASPIAN-IV Study

Background: Weight disorders are highly prevalent at the global level. Vitamin B groups are clearly involved in intracellular mechanisms, energy equation, and weight gain. The present study aims to evaluate the association of dietary vitamin B intake and obesity in a large pediatric population. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted among children and adolescents, aged 6-18years, living in urban and rural areas of 30 provinces of Iran. The BMI-for-age classifications were as follow: percentile <0.1, (emaciated), 0.1 ≤percentile <2.35 (thin), 2.35 ≤percentile≤84.1 (normal), 84.1 <percentile ≤97.7 (overweight), 97.1 <percentile (obese). A valid 168-item semi-quantitative Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ) was used to assess the usual dietary intake including vitamin B. Results: Out of 5606 children and adolescents participated (mean age: 11.62, SD: 3.32),46.8% were girls. The intake of thiamin, pyridoxine, niacin and pantothenic acid increased the likelihood of obesity, compared with the normal-weight group. Odds ratios (ORs) (95% CI) of obesity for vitamin B1, B3, B5, and B6 were 1.32 (1.14-1.53), 1.01 (1.00-1.02), 1.04 (1.00-1.08),and 1.20 (1.04-1.38), respectively. Riboflavin, cyanocobalamin, biotin and folic acid did not have any significant association with weight disorders (B2: OR=1.09, 95% CI =0.99-1.20); B12:OR=1.00, 95% CI=0.98-1.03; B8: OR=1.00, 95% CI=0.99-1.00 B9: OR=1.00, 95% CI=1.00-1.00). Conclusion: The current study showed a significant correlation between consumption of vitamin B group and increased risk of excess weight.

Greater family size is associated with less cancer risk: an ecological analysis of 178 countries

BACKGROUND

Greater family size measured with total fertility rate (TFR) and with household size, may offer more life satisfaction to the family members. Positive psychological well-being has been postulated to decrease cancer initiation risk. This ecological study aims to examine the worldwide correlation between family size, used as the measure of positive psychological well-being, and total cancer incidence rates.

METHODS

Country specific estimates obtained from United Nations agencies on total cancer incidence rates (total, female and male rates in age range 0-49 years and all ages respectively), all ages site cancer incidence (bladder, breast, cervix uteri, colorectum, corpus uteri, lung, ovary and stomach), TFR, household size, life expectancy, urbanization, per capita GDP PPP and self-calculated Biological State Index (Ibs) were matched for data analysis. Pearson's, non-parametric Spearman's, partial correlations, independent T-test and multivariate regressions were conducted in SPSS.

RESULTS

Worldwide, TFR and household size were significantly and negatively correlated to all the cancer incidence variables. These correlations remained significant in partial correlation analysis when GDP, life expectancy, Ibs and urbanization were controlled for. TFR correlated to male cancer incidence rate (all ages) significantly stronger than it did to female cancer incidence rate (all ages) in both Pearson's and partial correlations. Multivariate stepwise regression analysis indicated that TFR and household size were consistently significant predictors of all cancer incidence variables.

CONCLUSIONS

Countries with greater family size have lower cancer risk in both females, and especially males. Our results seem to suggest that it may be worthwhile further examining correlations between family size and cancer risk in males and females through the cohort and case-control studies based on large samples.

Prostate Cancer Incidence is Correlated to Total Meat Intake– a Cross-National Ecologic Analysis of 172 Countries

Objective: To examine the association of total meat (animal flesh) consumption to prostate cancer incidence (PC61) at population level. Subjects and Methods: Data from 172 countries were extracted for analysis. Associations between country specific per capita total meat intake and PC61 incidence at country level were examined using Pearson’s r and Spearman rho, partial correlation, stepwise multiple linear regression analyses with ageing, GDP, Is (index of magnitude of prostate cancer gene accumulation at population level), obesity prevalence and urbanization included as the confounding factors. Countries were also grouped for regional association analysis. The data were log-transformed for analysis in SPSS. Microsoft Excel, and ANOVA Post hoc Scheffe tests were applied to calculate and compare mean differences between country groupings. Results: Worldwide, total meat intake was strongly and positively associated with PC61 incidence in Pearson’s r (r= 0.595, p<0.001) and Spearman rho (r= 0.637, p<0.001) analyses. This relationship remained significant in partial correlation (r= 0.295, p<0.001) when ageing, GDP, Is, obesity prevalence and urbanization were kept statistically constant. GDP was weakly and insignificantly associated with PC61 when total meat intake was kept statistically constant. Stepwise multiple linear regression identified that total meat was a significant predictor of PC61 with total meat intake and all the five confounders included as the independent variables (R2=0.417). Post hoc Scheffe tests revealed nine significant mean differences of PC61 between the six WHO regions, but all disappeared when the contributing effect of total meat on PC61 incidence rate was removed. GDP was not identified as the statistically significant predictor of PC61 in either of the models including or excluding total meat as the independent variable. Conclusions: Total meat intake is an independent predictor of PC61 worldwide, and the determinant of regional variation of PC61. The longitudinal cohort studies are proposed to explore the association further.

Low fertility may be a significant determinant of ovarian cancer worldwide: an ecological analysis of cross- sectional data from 182 countries

BACKGROUND

Ageing, socioeconomic level, obesity, fertility, relaxed natural selection and urbanization have been postulated as the risk factors of ovarian cancer (OC56). We sought to identify which factor plays the most significant role in predicting OC56 incidence rate worldwide.

METHODS

Bivariate correlation analysis was performed to assess the relationships between country-specific estimates of ageing (measured by life expectancy), GDP PPP (Purchasing power parity), obesity prevalence, fertility (indexed by the crude birth rate), opportunity for natural selection (Ibs) and urbanization. Partial correlation was used to compare contribution of different variables. Fisher A-to-Z was used to compare the correlation coefficients. Multiple linear regression (Enter and Stepwise) was conducted to identify significant determinants of OC56 incidence. ANOVA with post hoc Bonferroni analysis was performed to compare differences between the means of OC56 incidence rate and residuals of OC56 standardised on fertility and GDP respectively between the six WHO regions.

RESULTS

Bivariate analyses revealed that OC56 was significantly and strongly correlated to ageing, GDP, obesity, low fertility, Ibs and urbanization. However, partial correlation analysis identified that fertility and ageing were the only variables that had a significant correlation to OC56 incidence when the other five variables were kept statistically constant. Fisher A-to-Z revealed that OC56 had a significantly stronger correlation to low fertility than to ageing. Stepwise linear regression analysis only identified fertility as the significant predictor of OC56. ANOVA showed that, between the six WHO regions, multiple mean differences of OC56 incidence were significant, but all disappeared when the contributing effect of fertility on OC56 incidence rate was removed.

CONCLUSIONS

Low fertility may be the most significant determining predictor of OC56 incidence worldwide.

Relaxed natural selection contributes to global obesity increase more in males than in females due to more environmental modifications in female body mass

OBJECTIVE

Relaxed natural selection, measured by Biological State Index (Ibs), results in unfavourable genes/mutations accumulation in population. Obesity is partly heritable. We aim to examine and compare the effects of relaxed natural selection on male and female obesity prevalence.

METHODS

Data for 191 countries of the world were captured for this ecological study. Curvilinear regressions, bivariate and partial correlations, linear mixed models and multivariate linear regression analyses were used to examine the relationship between Ibs and sex-specific obesity prevalence. Per capita GDP, urbanization and caloric intake were controlled for as the confounding factors. Fisher r-to-z transformation, R2 increment in multivariate regression and F-test were used to compare the correlations.

RESULTS

Curvilinear regressions, bivariate and partial correlations (controlled for GDP, urbanization and calories) revealed that Ibs was significantly correlated to obesity prevalence of both sexes, but significantly stronger to male than to female obesity prevalence. Curvilinear regression models also showed strong correlations. Mixed linear models, with effects of GDP, urbanisation and caloric intake controlled for, showed that male and female average obesity prevalence rates were significantly higher in countries with greater Ibs value than their equivalents in countries with lower Ibs. Between higher and lower Ibs countries, the gap of male obesity prevalence is 60% greater than the gap of female obesity prevalence. Stepwise multiple regression identified that Ibs was a significant predictor of obesity prevalence of both sexes. Multivariate regression showed that, adding Ibs as an obesity predictor, R2 increment in male model was significantly greater than in female model.

CONCLUSIONS

Relaxed natural selection may drive males and females to accumulate metabolic faulty genes equally. Probably due to greater environmental, personal intervention in regulating female body mass, relaxed natural selection shows less contributing effects to female obesity prevalence than to male obesity prevalence. Gene therapy to prevent obesity may need to be also taken into account.

Increasing variability of body mass and health correlates in Swiss conscripts, a possible role of relaxed natural selection?

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The body mass index (BMI) is an established anthropometric index for the development of obesity-related conditions. However, little is known about the distribution of BMI within a population, especially about this distribution's temporal change. Here, we analysed changes in the distribution of height, weight and BMI over the past 140 years based on data of Swiss conscripts and tested for correlations between anthropometric data and standard blood parameters.

METHODS

Height and weight were measured in 59 504 young Swiss males aged 18-19 years during conscription in 1875-79, 1932-36, 1994 and 2010-12. For 65% of conscripts in 2010-12, results of standard blood analysis were available. We calculated descriptive statistics of the distribution of height, weight and BMI over the four time periods and tested for associations between BMI and metabolic parameters.

RESULTS

Average and median body height, body weight and BMI increased over time. Height did no longer increase between 1994 and 2010-12, while weight and BMI still increased over these two decades. Variability ranges of weight and BMI increased over time, while variation of body height remained constant. Elevated levels of metabolic and inflammatory blood parameters were found at both ends of BMI distribution.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Both overweight and underweight subgroups showed similar changes in inflammation parameters, pointing toward related metabolic deficiencies in both conditions. In addition to environmental influences, our results indicate a potential role of relaxed natural selection on genes affecting metabolism and body composition.

The evolution of body fatness: trading off disease and predation risk

Human obesity has a large genetic component, yet has many serious negative consequences. How this state of affairs has evolved has generated wide debate. The thrifty gene hypothesis was the first attempt to explain obesity as a consequence of adaptive responses to an ancient environment that in modern society become disadvantageous. The idea is that genes (or more precisely, alleles) predisposing to obesity may have been selected for by repeated exposure to famines. However, this idea has many flaws: for instance, selection of the supposed magnitude over the duration of human evolution would fix any thrifty alleles (famines kill the old and young, not the obese) and there is no evidence that hunter-gatherer populations become obese between famines. An alternative idea (called thrifty late) is that selection in famines has only happened since the agricultural revolution. However, this is inconsistent with the absence of strong signatures of selection at single nucleotide polymorphisms linked to obesity. In parallel to discussions about the origin of obesity, there has been much debate regarding the regulation of body weight. There are three basic models: the set-point, settling point and dual-intervention point models. Selection might act against low and high levels of adiposity because food unpredictability and the risk of starvation selects against low adiposity whereas the risk of predation selects against high adiposity. Although evidence for the latter is quite strong, evidence for the former is relatively weak. The release from predation ∼2-million years ago is suggested to have led to the upper intervention point drifting in evolutionary time, leading to the modern distribution of obesity: the drifty gene hypothesis. Recent critiques of the dual-intervention point/drifty gene idea are flawed and inconsistent with known aspects of energy balance physiology. Here, I present a new formulation of the dual-intervention point model. This model includes the novel suggestion that food unpredictability and starvation are insignificant factors driving fat storage, and that the main force driving up fat storage is the risk of disease and the need to survive periods of pathogen-induced anorexia. This model shows why two independent intervention points are more likely to evolve than a single set point. The molecular basis of the lower intervention point is likely based around the leptin pathway signalling. Determining the molecular basis of the upper intervention point is a crucial key target for future obesity research. A potential definitive test to separate the different models is also described.

Phenotype diffusion and one health: A proposed framework for investigating the plurality of obesity epidemics across many species

We propose the idea of "phenotype diffusion," which is a rapid convergence of an observed trait in some human and animal populations. The words phenotype and diffusion both imply observations independent of mechanism as phenotypes are observed traits with multiple possible genetic mechanisms and diffusion is an observed state of being widely distributed. Recognizing shared changes in phenotype in multiple species does not by itself reveal a particular mechanism such as a shared exposure, shared adaptive need, particular stochastic process or a transmission pathway. Instead, identifying phenotype diffusion suggests the mechanism should be explored to help illuminate the ways human and animal health are connected and new opportunities for optimizing these links. Using the plurality of obesity epidemics across multiple species as a prototype for shared changes in phenotype, the goal of this review was to explore eco-evolutionary theories that could inform further investigation. First, evolutionary changes described by hologenome evolution, pawnobe evolution, transposable element (TE) thrust and the drifty gene hypothesis will be discussed within the context of the selection asymmetries among human and animal populations. Secondly, the ecology of common source exposures (bovine milk, xenohormesis and "obesogens"), niche evolution and the hygiene hypothesis will be summarized. Finally, we synthesize these considerations. For example, many agricultural breeds have been aggressively selected for weight gain, microbiota (e.g., adenovirus 36, toxoplasmosis) associated with (or infecting) these breeds cause experimental weight gain in other animals, and these same microbes are associated with human obesity. We propose applications of phenotype diffusion could include zoonotic biosurveillance, biocontainment, antibiotic stewardship and environmental priorities. The One Health field is focused on the connections between the health of humans, animals and the environment, and so identification of phenotype diffusion is highly relevant for practitioners (public health officials, physicians and veterinarians) in this field.

Cancer incidence increasing globally: The role of relaxed natural selection

Cancer incidence increase has multiple aetiologies. Mutant alleles accumulation in populations may be one of them due to strong heritability of many cancers. The opportunity for the operation of natural selection has decreased in the past ~150 years because of reduction in mortality and fertility. Mutation‐selection balance may have been disturbed in this process and genes providing background for some cancers may have been accumulating in human gene pools. Worldwide, based on the WHO statistics for 173 countries the index of the opportunity for selection is strongly inversely correlated with cancer incidence in peoples aged 0–49 years and in people of all ages. This relationship remains significant when gross domestic product per capita (GDP), life expectancy of older people (e₅₀), obesity, physical inactivity, smoking and urbanization are kept statistically constant for fifteen (15) of twenty‐seven (27) individual cancers incidence rates. Twelve (12) cancers which are not correlated with relaxed natural selection after considering the six potential confounders are largely attributable to external causes like viruses and toxins. Ratios of the average cancer incidence rates of the 10 countries with lowest opportunities for selection to the average cancer incidence rates of the 10 countries with highest opportunities for selection are 2.3 (all cancers at all ages), 2.4 (all cancers in 0–49 years age group), 5.7 (average ratios of strongly genetically based cancers) and 2.1 (average ratios of cancers with less genetic background).