1
|
Tapias-Rivera J, Martínez-Vega RA, Román-Pérez S, Santos-Luna R, Amaya-Larios IY, Diaz-Quijano FA, Ramos-Castañeda J. Microclimate factors related to dengue virus burden clusters in two endemic towns of Mexico. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0302025. [PMID: 38843173 PMCID: PMC11156286 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0302025] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2023] [Accepted: 03/26/2024] [Indexed: 06/09/2024] Open
Abstract
In dengue-endemic areas, transmission control is limited by the difficulty of achieving sufficient coverage and sustainability of interventions. To maximize the effectiveness of interventions, areas with higher transmission could be identified and prioritized. The aim was to identify burden clusters of Dengue virus (DENV) infection and evaluate their association with microclimatic factors in two endemic towns from southern Mexico. Information from a prospective population cohort study (2·5 years of follow-up) was used, microclimatic variables were calculated from satellite information, and a cross-sectional design was conducted to evaluate the relationship between the outcome and microclimatic variables in the five surveys. Spatial clustering was observed in specific geographic areas at different periods. Both, land surface temperature (aPR 0·945; IC95% 0·895-0·996) and soil humidity (aPR 3·018; IC95% 1·013-8·994), were independently associated with DENV burden clusters. These findings can help health authorities design focused dengue surveillance and control activities in dengue endemic areas.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Johanna Tapias-Rivera
- Maestría en Investigación en Enfermedades Infecciosas, Facultad de Ciencias Médicas y de la Salud, Instituto de Investigación Masira, Universidad de Santander, Bucaramanga, Santander, Colombia
| | - Ruth Aralí Martínez-Vega
- Escuela de Medicina, Facultad de Ciencias Médicas y de la Salud, Instituto de Investigación Masira, Universidad de Santander, Bucaramanga, Santander, Colombia
| | - Susana Román-Pérez
- Centro de Investigación en Evaluación y Encuestas, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, Morelos, México
| | - Rene Santos-Luna
- Centro de Investigación en Evaluación y Encuestas, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, Morelos, México
| | | | - Fredi Alexander Diaz-Quijano
- Department of Epidemiology–Laboratório de Inferência Causal em Epidemiologia (LINCE-USP), School of Public Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - José Ramos-Castañeda
- Centro de Investigaciones Sobre Enfermedades Infecciosas, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, Morelos, México
- Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad Anahuac, Ciudad de México, México
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Silva AT, Dorn RC, Tomás LR, Santos LB, Skalinski LM, Pinho ST. Spatial analysis of Dengue through the reproduction numbers relating to socioeconomic features: Case studies on two Brazilian urban centers. Infect Dis Model 2024; 9:142-157. [PMID: 38268698 PMCID: PMC10805647 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.12.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2023] [Revised: 12/08/2023] [Accepted: 12/16/2023] [Indexed: 01/26/2024] Open
Abstract
The study of the propagation of infectious diseases in urban centers finds a close connection with their population's social characteristics and behavior. This work performs a spatial analysis of dengue cases in urban centers based on the basic reproduction numbers, R0, and incidence by planning areas (PAs), as well as their correlations with the Human Development Index (HDI) and the number of trips. We analyzed dengue epidemics in 2002 at two Brazilian urban centers, Belo Horizonte (BH) and Rio de Janeiro (RJ), using PAs as spatial units. Our results reveal heterogeneous spatial scenarios for both cities, with very weak correlations between R0 and both the number of trips and the HDI; in BH, the values of R0 show a less spatial heterogeneous pattern than in RJ. For BH, there are moderate correlations between incidence and both the number of trips and the HDI; meanwhile, they weakly correlate for RJ. Finally, the absence of strong correlations between the considered measures indicates that the transmission process should be treated considering the city as a whole.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ana T.C. Silva
- Departamento de Física, Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana, Av. Transnordestina, s/n. Novo Horizonte, Feira de Santana, 44036-900, BA, Brazil
- Instituto de Física, Universidade Federal da Bahia, Rua Barão de Jeremoabo s/n, Campus Universitário de Ondina, Salvador, 40170-115, BA, Brazil
| | - Rejane C. Dorn
- Instituto de Física, Universidade Federal da Bahia, Rua Barão de Jeremoabo s/n, Campus Universitário de Ondina, Salvador, 40170-115, BA, Brazil
| | - Lívia R. Tomás
- Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN), Estrada Dr. Altino Bondensan, 500, São José dos Campos, 12247-016, SP, Brazil
| | - Leonardo B.L. Santos
- Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN), Estrada Dr. Altino Bondensan, 500, São José dos Campos, 12247-016, SP, Brazil
| | - Lacita M. Skalinski
- Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz, Campus Soane Nazaré de Andrade, Rodovia Jorge Amado, Km 16, Salobrinho, Ilhéus, 45662-900, BA, Brazil
- Instituto de Saúde Coletiva, Universidade Federal da Bahia, R. Basílio da Gama, s/n - Canela, Salvador, 40110-140, BA, Brazil
| | - Suani T.R. Pinho
- Instituto de Física, Universidade Federal da Bahia, Rua Barão de Jeremoabo s/n, Campus Universitário de Ondina, Salvador, 40170-115, BA, Brazil
- Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia - Sistemas Complexos, Virtual Institution, Brazil
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Pearson AL, Tribby C, Brown CD, Yang JA, Pfeiffer K, Jankowska MM. Systematic review of best practices for GPS data usage, processing, and linkage in health, exposure science and environmental context research. BMJ Open 2024; 14:e077036. [PMID: 38307539 PMCID: PMC10836389 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-077036] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2023] [Accepted: 01/16/2024] [Indexed: 02/04/2024] Open
Abstract
Global Positioning System (GPS) technology is increasingly used in health research to capture individual mobility and contextual and environmental exposures. However, the tools, techniques and decisions for using GPS data vary from study to study, making comparisons and reproducibility challenging. OBJECTIVES The objectives of this systematic review were to (1) identify best practices for GPS data collection and processing; (2) quantify reporting of best practices in published studies; and (3) discuss examples found in reviewed manuscripts that future researchers may employ for reporting GPS data usage, processing and linkage of GPS data in health studies. DESIGN A systematic review. DATA SOURCES Electronic databases searched (24 October 2023) were PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science (PROSPERO ID: CRD42022322166). ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA Included peer-reviewed studies published in English met at least one of the criteria: (1) protocols involving GPS for exposure/context and human health research purposes and containing empirical data; (2) linkage of GPS data to other data intended for research on contextual influences on health; (3) associations between GPS-measured mobility or exposures and health; (4) derived variable methods using GPS data in health research; or (5) comparison of GPS tracking with other methods (eg, travel diary). DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS We examined 157 manuscripts for reporting of best practices including wear time, sampling frequency, data validity, noise/signal loss and data linkage to assess risk of bias. RESULTS We found that 6% of the studies did not disclose the GPS device model used, only 12.1% reported the per cent of GPS data lost by signal loss, only 15.7% reported the per cent of GPS data considered to be noise and only 68.2% reported the inclusion criteria for their data. CONCLUSIONS Our recommendations for reporting on GPS usage, processing and linkage may be transferrable to other geospatial devices, with the hope of promoting transparency and reproducibility in this research. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER CRD42022322166.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Amber L Pearson
- CS Mott Department of Public Health, Michigan State University, Flint, MI, USA
| | - Calvin Tribby
- Department of Population Sciences, Beckman Research Institute of City of Hope, Duarte, California, USA
| | - Catherine D Brown
- Department of Geography, Environment and Spatial Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA
| | - Jiue-An Yang
- Department of Population Sciences, Beckman Research Institute of City of Hope, Duarte, California, USA
| | - Karin Pfeiffer
- Department of Kinesiology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA
| | - Marta M Jankowska
- Department of Population Sciences, Beckman Research Institute of City of Hope, Duarte, California, USA
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Giral-Barajas J, Herrera-Nolasco CI, Herrera-Valdez MA, López SI. A probabilistic approach for the study of epidemiological dynamics of infectious diseases: Basic model and properties. J Theor Biol 2023; 572:111576. [PMID: 37437710 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111576] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/31/2022] [Revised: 06/23/2023] [Accepted: 07/03/2023] [Indexed: 07/14/2023]
Abstract
The dynamics of epidemiological phenomena associated to infectious diseases have long been modelled taking different approaches. However, recent pandemic events exposed many areas of opportunity to improve the existing models. We develop a stochastic model based on the idea that transitions between epidemiological stages are alike sampling processes that may involve more than one subset of the population or may be mostly dependent on time intervals defined by pathological or clinical criteria. We apply the model to simulate epidemics, analyse the final distribution of the case fatality ratio, and define a basic reproductive number to determine the existence of a probabilistic phase transition for the dynamics. The resulting modelling scheme is robust, easy to implement, and can readily lend itself for extensions aimed at answering questions that emerge from close examination of data trends, such as those emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic, and other infectious diseases.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- José Giral-Barajas
- Departamento de Matemáticas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico
| | - Carlos Ignacio Herrera-Nolasco
- Departamento de Matemáticas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico; Laboratorio de Dinámica, Biofísica, y Fisiología de Sistemas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico
| | - Marco Arieli Herrera-Valdez
- Departamento de Matemáticas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico; Laboratorio de Dinámica, Biofísica, y Fisiología de Sistemas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico.
| | - Sergio I López
- Departamento de Matemáticas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico.
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Carrillo MA, Cardenas R, Yañez J, Petzold M, Kroeger A. Risk of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya transmission in the metropolitan area of Cucuta, Colombia: cross-sectional analysis, baseline for a cluster-randomised controlled trial of a novel vector tool for water containers. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:1000. [PMID: 37254133 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-15893-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/07/2023] [Accepted: 05/15/2023] [Indexed: 06/01/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Arbovirus diseases such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya are a public health threat in tropical and subtropical areas. In the absence of a vaccine or specific treatment, vector management (in this case the control of the primary vector Aedes aegypti) is the best practice to prevent the three diseases. A good understanding of vector behaviour, ecology, human mobility and water use can help design effective vector control programmes. This study collected baseline information on these factors for identifying the arbovirus transmission risk and assessed the requirements for a large intervention trial in Colombia. METHODS Baseline surveys were conducted in 5,997 households, randomly selected from 24 clusters (neighbourhoods with on average 2000 houses and 250 households inspected) in the metropolitan area of Cucuta, Colombia. The study established population characteristics including water management and mobility as well as larval-pupal indices which were estimated and compared in all clusters. Additionally, the study estimated disease incidence from two sources: self-reported dengue cases in the household survey and cases notified by the national surveillance system. RESULTS In all 24 study clusters similar social and demographic characteristics were found but the entomological indicators and estimated disease incidence rates varied. The entomological indicators showed a high vector infestation: House Index = 25.1%, Container Index = 12.3% and Breteau Index = 29.6. Pupae per person Index (PPI) as an indicator of the transmission risk showed a large range from 0.22 to 2.04 indicating a high transmission risk in most clusters. The concrete ground tanks for laundry -mostly outdoors and uncovered- were the containers with the highest production of Ae. aegypti as 86.3% of all 17,613 pupae were identified in these containers. Also, the annual incidence of dengue was high: 841.6 self-reported cases per 100,000 inhabitants and the dengue incidence notified by the National surveillance system was 1,013.4 cases per 100,000 in 2019. Only 2.2% of the households used container water for drinking. 40.3% of the study population travelled during the day (when Aedes mosquitoes bite) outside their clusters. CONCLUSIONS The production of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes occurred almost exclusively in concrete ground tanks for laundry (lavadero), the primary intervention target. The baseline study provides necessary evidence for the design and implementation of a cluster randomized intervention trial in Colombia.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Maria Angelica Carrillo
- Centre for Medicine and Society, Master Programme Global Urban Health, Albert-Ludwigs University Freiburg, Freiburg in Breisgau, Germany.
| | - Rocio Cardenas
- Centre for Medicine and Society, Master Programme Global Urban Health, Albert-Ludwigs University Freiburg, Freiburg in Breisgau, Germany
| | - Johanna Yañez
- Vector Control Programme, Instituto Departamental de Salud Norte de Santander, Cucuta, Colombia
| | - Max Petzold
- Institute of Public Health, Gothenburg University, Göteborg, Sweden
| | - Axel Kroeger
- Centre for Medicine and Society, Master Programme Global Urban Health, Albert-Ludwigs University Freiburg, Freiburg in Breisgau, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Belaunzarán-Zamudio PF, Rincón León HA, Caballero Sosa S, Ruiz E, Nájera Cancino JG, de La Rosa PR, Guerrero Almeida MDL, Powers JH, Beigel JH, Hunsberger S, Trujillo K, Ramos P, Arteaga-Cabello FJ, López-Roblero A, Valdés-Salgado R, Arroyo-Figueroa H, Becerril E, Ruiz-Palacios G. Different epidemiological profiles in patients with Zika and dengue infection in Tapachula, Chiapas in Mexico (2016-2018): an observational, prospective cohort study. BMC Infect Dis 2021; 21:881. [PMID: 34454432 PMCID: PMC8397877 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-021-06520-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2020] [Accepted: 08/02/2021] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The introduction of Zika and chikungunya to dengue hyperendemic regions increased interest in better understanding characteristics of these infections. We conducted a cohort study in Mexico to evaluate the natural history of Zika infection. We describe here the frequency of Zika, chikungunya and dengue virus infections immediately after Zika introduction in Mexico, and baseline characteristics of participants for each type of infection. METHODS Prospective, observational cohort evaluating the natural history of Zika virus infection in the Mexico-Guatemala border area. Patients with fever, rash or both, meeting the modified criteria of PAHO for probable Zika cases were enrolled (June 2016-July 2018) and followed-up for 6 months. We collected data on sociodemographic, environmental exposure, clinical and laboratory characteristics. Diagnosis was established based on viral RNA identification in serum and urine samples using RT-PCR for Zika, chikungunya, and dengue. We describe the baseline sociodemographic and environmental exposure characteristics of participants according to diagnosis, and the frequency of these infections over a two-year period immediately after Zika introduction in Mexico. RESULTS We enrolled 427 participants. Most patients (n = 307, 65.7%) had an acute illness episode with no identified pathogen (UIE), 37 (8%) Zika, 82 (17.6%) dengue, and 1 (0.2%) chikungunya. In 2016 Zika predominated, declined in 2017 and disappeared in 2018; while dengue increased after 2017. Patients with dengue were more likely to be men, younger, and with lower education than those with Zika and UIE. They also reported closer contact with water sources, and with other people diagnosed with dengue. Participants with Zika reported sexual exposure more frequently than people with dengue and UIE. Zika was more likely to be identified in urine while dengue was more likely found in blood in the first seven days of symptoms; but PCR results for both were similar at day 7-14 after symptom onset. CONCLUSIONS During the first 2 years of Zika introduction to this dengue hyper-endemic region, frequency of Zika peaked and fell over a two-year period; while dengue progressively increased with a predominance in 2018. Different epidemiologic patterns between Zika, dengue and UIE were observed. Trial registration Clinical.Trials.gov (NCT02831699).
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Pablo F Belaunzarán-Zamudio
- Departamento de Infectología, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico.
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Bethesda, MD, USA.
| | | | - Sandra Caballero Sosa
- Clínica Hospital Dr. Roberto Nettel Flores, Instituto de Seguridad y Servicios Sociales de los Trabajadores del Estado, Tapachula, Chiapas, Mexico
| | - Emilia Ruiz
- Hospital General de Tapachula, Tapachula, Chiapas, Mexico
| | | | | | | | - John H Powers
- Leidos Biomedical Research, Inc., Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick, MD, USA
| | - John H Beigel
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Sally Hunsberger
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Karina Trujillo
- Hospital Regional de Alta Especialidad Ciudad Salud, Tapachula, Chiapas, Mexico
| | - Pilar Ramos
- Departamento de Infectología, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Fernando J Arteaga-Cabello
- Departamento de Infectología, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico
| | | | | | - Hugo Arroyo-Figueroa
- Mexican Emerging Infectious Diseases Clinical Research Network (La Red), Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Eli Becerril
- Mexican Emerging Infectious Diseases Clinical Research Network (La Red), Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Guillermo Ruiz-Palacios
- Departamento de Infectología, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Schaber KL, Perkins TA, Lloyd AL, Waller LA, Kitron U, Paz-Soldan VA, Elder JP, Rothman AL, Civitello DJ, Elson WH, Morrison AC, Scott TW, Vazquez-Prokopec GM. Disease-driven reduction in human mobility influences human-mosquito contacts and dengue transmission dynamics. PLoS Comput Biol 2021; 17:e1008627. [PMID: 33465065 PMCID: PMC7845972 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008627] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2020] [Revised: 01/29/2021] [Accepted: 12/11/2020] [Indexed: 02/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Heterogeneous exposure to mosquitoes determines an individual’s contribution to vector-borne pathogen transmission. Particularly for dengue virus (DENV), there is a major difficulty in quantifying human-vector contacts due to the unknown coupled effect of key heterogeneities. To test the hypothesis that the reduction of human out-of-home mobility due to dengue illness will significantly influence population-level dynamics and the structure of DENV transmission chains, we extended an existing modeling framework to include social structure, disease-driven mobility reductions, and heterogeneous transmissibility from different infectious groups. Compared to a baseline model, naïve to human pre-symptomatic infectiousness and disease-driven mobility changes, a model including both parameters predicted an increase of 37% in the probability of a DENV outbreak occurring; a model including mobility change alone predicted a 15.5% increase compared to the baseline model. At the individual level, models including mobility change led to a reduction of the importance of out-of-home onward transmission (R, the fraction of secondary cases predicted to be generated by an individual) by symptomatic individuals (up to -62%) at the expense of an increase in the relevance of their home (up to +40%). An individual’s positive contribution to R could be predicted by a GAM including a non-linear interaction between an individual’s biting suitability and the number of mosquitoes in their home (>10 mosquitoes and 0.6 individual attractiveness significantly increased R). We conclude that the complex fabric of social relationships and differential behavioral response to dengue illness cause the fraction of symptomatic DENV infections to concentrate transmission in specific locations, whereas asymptomatic carriers (including individuals in their pre-symptomatic period) move the virus throughout the landscape. Our findings point to the difficulty of focusing vector control interventions reactively on the home of symptomatic individuals, as this approach will fail to contain virus propagation by visitors to their house and asymptomatic carriers. Human mobility patterns can play an integral role in vector-borne disease dynamics by characterizing an individual’s potential contacts with disease-transmitting vectors. Dengue virus is transmitted by a sedentary vector, but human mobility allows individuals to have contact with mosquitoes at their home and other houses they frequent (their activity space). When accounting for the decreased mobility of symptomatic dengue cases in an agent-based simulation model, however, we found a severely diminished role of the activity space in onward transmission. Those who received the majority of their mosquito contacts outside their home experienced decreases in expected bites and onward transmission when mobility changes were accounted for. Onward transmission was driven by a synergistic relationship between the number of mosquitoes in an individual’s home and their biting suitability, where even those with the highest biting suitability would have limited contribution to transmission given a low number of household mosquitoes. Reactive vector control, which often targets symptomatic cases, could be effective for slowing onward transmission from these cases, but will fail to control virus transmission due to the disproportionate contribution of asymptomatic infections.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Kathryn L. Schaber
- Program of Population Biology, Ecology and Evolution, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - T. Alex Perkins
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America
| | - Alun L. Lloyd
- Biomathematics Graduate Program and Department of Mathematics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Lance A. Waller
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Uriel Kitron
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Valerie A. Paz-Soldan
- Department of Global Community Health and Behavioral Sciences, Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana, United States of America
| | - John P. Elder
- Graduate School of Public Health, San Diego State University, San Diego, California, United States of America
| | - Alan L. Rothman
- Institute for Immunology and Informatics and Department of Cell and Molecular Biology, University of Rhode Island, Providence, Rhode Island, United States of America
| | - David J. Civitello
- Department of Biology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - William H. Elson
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Amy C. Morrison
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Thomas W. Scott
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Gonzalo M. Vazquez-Prokopec
- Program of Population Biology, Ecology and Evolution, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Núñez-López M, Alarcón Ramos L, Velasco-Hernández JX. Migration rate estimation in an epidemic network. APPLIED MATHEMATICAL MODELLING 2021; 89:1949-1964. [PMID: 32952269 PMCID: PMC7486824 DOI: 10.1016/j.apm.2020.08.025] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2020] [Revised: 07/31/2020] [Accepted: 08/06/2020] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
Most of the recent epidemic outbreaks in the world have as a trigger, a strong migratory component as has been evident in the recent Covid-19 pandemic. In this work we address the problem of migration of human populations and its effect on pathogen reinfections in the case of Dengue, using a Markov-chain susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) metapopulation model over a network. Our model postulates a general contact rate that represents a local measure of several factors: the population size of infected hosts that arrive at a given location as a function of total population size, the current incidence at neighboring locations, and the connectivity of the network where the disease spreads. This parameter can be interpreted as an indicator of outbreak risk at a given location. This parameter is tied to the fraction of individuals that move across boundaries (migration). To illustrate our model capabilities, we estimate from epidemic Dengue data in Mexico the dynamics of migration at a regional scale incorporating climate variability represented by an index based on precipitation data.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- M Núñez-López
- Department of Mathematics, ITAM Río Hondo 1, Ciudad de México 01080, México
| | - L Alarcón Ramos
- Departamento de Matemáticas Aplicadas y Sistemas, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Cuajimalpa, Av. Vasco de Quiroga 4871, Cuajimalpa de Morelos, 05300, México
| | - J X Velasco-Hernández
- Instituto de Matemáticas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Boulevard Juriquilla No. 3001, Juriquilla, 76230, México
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
A Mapping Review on Urban Landscape Factors of Dengue Retrieved from Earth Observation Data, GIS Techniques, and Survey Questionnaires. REMOTE SENSING 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/rs12060932] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
To date, there is no effective treatment to cure dengue fever, a mosquito-borne disease which has a major impact on human populations in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Although the characteristics of dengue infection are well known, factors associated with landscape are highly scale dependent in time and space, and therefore difficult to monitor. We propose here a mapping review based on 78 articles that study the relationships between landscape factors and urban dengue cases considering household, neighborhood and administrative levels. Landscape factors were retrieved from survey questionnaires, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and remote sensing (RS) techniques. We structured these into groups composed of land cover, land use, and housing type and characteristics, as well as subgroups referring to construction material, urban typology, and infrastructure level. We mapped the co-occurrence networks associated with these factors, and analyzed their relevance according to a three-valued interpretation (positive, negative, non significant). From a methodological perspective, coupling RS and GIS techniques with field surveys including entomological observations should be systematically considered, as none digital land use or land cover variables appears to be an univocal determinant of dengue occurrences. Remote sensing urban mapping is however of interest to provide a geographical frame to distribute human population and movement in relation to their activities in the city, and as spatialized input variables for epidemiological and entomological models.
Collapse
|
10
|
Schaber KL, Paz-Soldan VA, Morrison AC, Elson WHD, Rothman AL, Mores CN, Astete-Vega H, Scott TW, Waller LA, Kitron U, Elder JP, Barker CM, Perkins TA, Vazquez-Prokopec GM. Dengue illness impacts daily human mobility patterns in Iquitos, Peru. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2019; 13:e0007756. [PMID: 31545804 PMCID: PMC6776364 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007756] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2019] [Revised: 10/03/2019] [Accepted: 09/05/2019] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Human mobility plays a central role in shaping pathogen transmission by generating spatial and/or individual variability in potential pathogen-transmitting contacts. Recent research has shown that symptomatic infection can influence human mobility and pathogen transmission dynamics. Better understanding the complex relationship between symptom severity, infectiousness, and human mobility requires quantification of movement patterns throughout infectiousness. For dengue virus (DENV), human infectiousness peaks 0–2 days after symptom onset, making it paramount to understand human movement patterns from the beginning of illness. Methodology and principal findings Through community-based febrile surveillance and RT-PCR assays, we identified a cohort of DENV+ residents of the city of Iquitos, Peru (n = 63). Using retrospective interviews, we measured the movements of these individuals when healthy and during each day of symptomatic illness. The most dramatic changes in mobility occurred during the first three days after symptom onset; individuals visited significantly fewer locations (Wilcoxon test, p = 0.017) and spent significantly more time at home (Wilcoxon test, p = 0.005), compared to when healthy. By 7–9 days after symptom onset, mobility measures had returned to healthy levels. Throughout an individual’s symptomatic period, the day of illness and their subjective sense of well-being were the most significant predictors for the number of locations and houses they visited. Conclusions/Significance Our study is one of the first to collect and analyze human mobility data at a daily scale during symptomatic infection. Accounting for the observed changes in human mobility throughout illness will improve understanding of the impact of disease on DENV transmission dynamics and the interpretation of public health-based surveillance data. Dengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease of humans worldwide. Due to the limited mobility of the mosquitoes that transmit dengue virus, human mobility can be a key to both understanding an individual’s exposure to the virus and explaining the spread of dengue throughout a population. Accurate disease models should include human mobility; however, changes in human movement patterns due to the presence of symptoms need to be taken into account. We quantified the impact of symptom presence on human mobility throughout the infectious period by analyzing a dataset on the daily movements of dengue virus infected individuals. Accounting for these changing patterns of mobility will improve understanding of the complex relationship between symptom severity, human movement, and dengue virus transmission. Furthermore, dengue transmission models that incorporate symptom-driven mobility changes can be used to evaluate scenarios and strategies for disease prevention.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Kathryn L. Schaber
- Program of Population Biology, Ecology and Evolution, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Valerie A. Paz-Soldan
- Department of Global Community Health and Behavioral Sciences, Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana, United States of America
| | - Amy C. Morrison
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - William H. D. Elson
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Alan L. Rothman
- Institute for Immunology and Informatics and Department of Cell and Molecular Biology, University of Rhode Island, Providence, Rhode Island, United States of America
| | - Christopher N. Mores
- Department of Virology and Emerging Infections, U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6, Lima and Iquitos, Peru
| | - Helvio Astete-Vega
- Department of Virology and Emerging Infections, U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6, Lima and Iquitos, Peru
| | - Thomas W. Scott
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Lance A. Waller
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Uriel Kitron
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - John P. Elder
- Graduate School of Public Health, San Diego State University, San Diego, California, United States of America
| | - Christopher M. Barker
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - T. Alex Perkins
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America
| | - Gonzalo M. Vazquez-Prokopec
- Program of Population Biology, Ecology and Evolution, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Fine-scale GPS tracking to quantify human movement patterns and exposure to leptospires in the urban slum environment. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018; 12:e0006752. [PMID: 30169513 PMCID: PMC6143277 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006752] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2018] [Revised: 09/18/2018] [Accepted: 08/14/2018] [Indexed: 12/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Human movement is likely an important risk factor for environmentally-transmitted pathogens. While epidemiologic studies have traditionally focused on household risk factors, individual movement data could provide critical additional information about risk of exposure to such pathogens. We conducted global positioning system (GPS) tracking of urban slum residents to quantify their fine-scale movement patterns and evaluate their exposures to environmental sources of leptospirosis transmission. Methodology/Principal findings We recruited participants from an ongoing cohort study in an urban slum in Brazil and tracked them for 24 hours at 30-second intervals. Among 172 subjects asked to participate in this cross-sectional study, 130 agreed to participate and 109 had good quality data and were included in analyses. The majority of recorded locations were near participant residences (87.7% within 50 meters of the house), regardless of age or gender. Similarly, exposure to environmental sources of leptospirosis transmission did not vary by age or gender. However, males, who have higher infection rates, visited a significantly larger area during the 24-hour period than did females (34,549m2 versus 22,733m2, p = 0.005). Four male participants had serologic evidence of Leptospira infection during the study period. These individuals had significantly larger activity spaces than uninfected males (61,310m2 vs 31,575m2, p = 0.006) and elevated exposure to rodent activity (p = 0.046) and trash deposits (p = 0.031). Conclusions/Significance GPS tracking was an effective tool for quantifying individual mobility in the complex urban slum environment and identifying risk exposures associated with that movement. This study suggests that in addition to source reduction, barrier interventions that reduce contact with transmission sources as slum residents move within their communities may be a useful prevention strategy for leptospirosis. Environmental features of urban slums including inadequate sanitation, substandard housing, and population crowding predispose residents to numerous infections. Despite this shared environment, not all slum residents, even within households, have equal risk of infection with specific pathogens and we do not know why. Individual movement data will help us better understand how slum residents interact with their environment. We conducted GPS tracking of 109 urban slum residents in Brazil to quantify their movement patterns and how these influence exposure to leptospirosis, an environmentally transmitted infection common in urban slums. Slum inhabitants, regardless of age and gender, spent most of their time close to home and had similar exposures to environmental features associated with leptospirosis infection. However, males visited a larger area on a daily basis, which may explain their higher leptospirosis risk. Based on screening of the slum population conducted at six-month intervals, four individuals (all male) became infected with Leptospira during our study. These individuals visited a significantly larger area than other males and had higher exposure to rodents and trash deposits than did other participants. GPS tracking allowed us to identify movement and movement-induced exposure as risk factors for leptospirosis infection and could provide similarly important information for other environmentally-transmitted pathogens.
Collapse
|
12
|
Falcón-Lezama JA, Martínez-Vega RA, Kuri-Morales PA, Ramos-Castañeda J, Adams B. Day-to-Day Population Movement and the Management of Dengue Epidemics. Bull Math Biol 2016; 78:2011-2033. [PMID: 27704330 PMCID: PMC5069346 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-016-0209-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2015] [Accepted: 09/21/2016] [Indexed: 12/03/2022]
Abstract
Dengue is a growing public health problem in tropical and subtropical cities. It is transmitted by mosquitoes, and the main strategy for epidemic prevention and control is insecticide fumigation. Effective management is, however, proving elusive. People’s day-to-day movement about the city is believed to be an important factor in the epidemiological dynamics. We use a simple model to examine the fundamental roles of broad demographic and spatial structures in epidemic initiation, growth and control. We show that the key factors are local dilution, characterised by the vector–host ratio, and spatial connectivity, characterised by the extent of habitually variable movement patterns. Epidemic risk in the population is driven by the demographic groups that frequent the areas with the highest vector–host ratio, even if they only spend some of their time there. Synchronisation of epidemic trajectories in different demographic groups is governed by the vector–host ratios to which they are exposed and the strength of connectivity. Strategies for epidemic prevention and management may be made more effective if they take into account the fluctuating landscape of transmission intensity associated with spatial heterogeneity in the vector–host ratio and people’s day-to-day movement patterns.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jorge A Falcón-Lezama
- Centro de Investigaciones sobre Enfermedades Infecciosas, Instituto Nacional de Salud Publica, Universidad 655, Colonia Sta. Maria Ahuacatitlán, Cerrada Los Pinos y Caminera. C.P., 62100, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico.,Carlos Slim Health Institute, Lago Zurich 245, Edif. Presa Falcón piso 20, Ampliación Granada. Del. Miguel Hidalgo, C.P. 11529, Ciudad de Mexico, Mexico
| | - Ruth A Martínez-Vega
- Organizacion Latinoamericana de Fomento a la Investigacion en Salud, Calle 110 No. 21-30, Of. 604, Bucaramanga, Santander, Colombia
| | - Pablo A Kuri-Morales
- Subsecretaría de Prevención y Promoción de la Salud, Lieja 7, 1er piso, Colonia Juárez, Del. Cuauhtémoc, C.P. 06600, Ciudad de Mexico, Mexico
| | - José Ramos-Castañeda
- Centro de Investigaciones sobre Enfermedades Infecciosas, Instituto Nacional de Salud Publica, Universidad 655, Colonia Sta. Maria Ahuacatitlán, Cerrada Los Pinos y Caminera. C.P., 62100, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico.,UTMB Center for Tropical Diseases, University of Texas Medical Branch, 301 University Blvd., Galveston, TX, 77555-0435, USA
| | - Ben Adams
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath, Bath, BA27AY, UK.
| |
Collapse
|