The transmissibility of noroviruses: Statistical modeling of outbreak events with known route of transmission in Japan

Impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic on the Prevalence and Incidence of Gastrointestinal Viruses in Children up to Five Years Old: a Retrospective Cohort Study

The aim is determining the impact of non-pharmaceutical measures (NPIs) against SARS-CoV-2 in the incidence and prevalence of gastrointestinal viruses (GV) in children. Demographic, analytical, and clinical data of children from which samples were received at the Hospital Universitario La Paz (Madrid, Spain) and that had a gastrointestinal infection with a positive sample through multiplex-PCR for GV were collected. The time periods included were prepandemic (P1): March 14, 2019 to March 14, 2020 and pandemic (P2): March 15, 2020 to March 15, 2021. The global prevalence, relative incidence (RI, per 1,000 admissions) and absolute incidence (AI, per 100,000 population) of GV were compared for both time periods. The prevalence of GV versus SARS-CoV-2 was determined for P2. Seven-hundred and 50 out of 2,547 children analyzed in P1 and 106 out of 1,368 in P2 were positive by PCR for GV (46.3% decrease in P2). Prevalence and RI of GV declined in P2, except for the RI of rotavirus. Adenovirus showed the largest decreased of prevalence and RI (100%), followed by sapovirus. Astrovirus reduction was less pronounced (3.1% versus 0.4%). Norovirus was the most frequent virus in both time periods and its prevalence and RI also decreased in P2 (15.2% versus 4.7% and 3.40 versus 1.74, respectively). Rotavirus had the smallest decrease in prevalence (2.6% versus 2.5%), and its RI increased during P2 from 0.7 to 0.93. After removing the rotavirus vaccine strains from the analysis, the prevalence and RI decreased during P2 (2.1% to 0.7% and 0.5 to 0.3, respectively). The AI decreased during P2 in all GV, and the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and GV was inversely proportional over time. Prevalence and incidence of GV have decreased during the pandemic, probably due to the implementation of NPIs against this virus and the reduction of health care attention to infections other than COVID-19. The differences in the decrease of prevalence and incidence for each virus may be explained by differences in the transmission and the resistance in the environment. Prevalence and RI of rotavirus might be biased since the PCR used detects both the infecting and the vaccine strains.

IMPORTANCE Our original article contains an analysis of the impact of the measures applied against SARS-CoV-2 on the prevalence and incidence of GV in children. The small number of studies published to date that analyze the impact of these measures individually on each of the GV makes our study of great interest at this time.

Multiplex PCR method for the detection of human norovirus, Salmonella spp., Shigella spp., and shiga toxin producing Escherichia coli in blackberry, coriander, lettuce and strawberry

A multiplex PCR method was developed for the simultaneous detection of murine norovirus (MNV-1) as a surrogate for human norovirus (HuNoV) GI and GII, Salmonella spp., Shigella spp., and Shiga toxin producing Escherichia coli (STEC) in fresh produce. The toxicity of the glycine buffer on bacterial pathogens viability was evaluated. The growth of each of the three pathogens (previously stressed) was evaluated at 35 and 41.5 °C in modified buffered peptone water (mBPW) and trypticase soy broth (TSB), supplemented with vancomycin, novobiocin and brilliant green at two concentration levels. The selected conditions for simultaneous enrichment were: 41.5 °C/mBPW/supplemented with 8 ppm vancomycin, 0.6 ppm novobiocin and 0.2 ppm brilliant green. The pathogens and aerobic plate count (APC) growth was evaluated in the enrichment of lettuce, coriander, strawberry and blackberry under the best enrichment conditions. Starting from 1 to 10 CFU/mL, Salmonella reached from 7.63 to 8.91, Shigella 6.81 to 7.76 and STEC 7.43 to 9.27 log CFU/mL. The population reached for the APC was 5.11-6.56 log CFU/mL. Simultaneous detection by PCR was done using designed primers targeting invA, ipaH, stx1 and stx2 genes, and MNV-1. The detection sensitivity was 10-100 PFU for the MNV-1 and 1-10 CFU for each pathogenic bacteria. This protocol takes 6 h for MNV-1 and 24 h for Salmonella spp., Shigella spp., and STEC detection from the same food portion. In total, 200 samples were analyzed from retail markets from Queretaro, Mexico. Two strawberry samples were positive for HuNoV GI and one lettuce sample was positive for STEC. In conclusion, the method developed in this study is capable of detecting HuNoV GI and GII, Salmonella spp., Shigella spp and STEC from the same fresh produce sample.

Trends in gastrointestinal infections before and during nonpharmaceutical interventions in Korea in comparison with the United States

OBJECTIVES

This study examined how trends in the weekly frequencies of gastrointestinal infectious diseases changed before and during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Korea, and compared them with the trends in the United States.

METHODS

We compared the weekly frequencies of gastrointestinal infectious diseases (16 bacterial and 6 viral diseases) in Korea during weeks 5-52 before and after COVID-19. In addition, the weekly frequencies of 5 gastrointestinal infectious diseases in the United States (data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) that overlapped with those in Korea were compared.

RESULTS

The mean weekly number of total cases of gastrointestinal infectious diseases in Korea showed a significant decrease (from 522 before COVID-19 to 245 after COVID-19, p<0.01). Only bacterial gastrointestinal infectious diseases caused by Campylobacter increased significantly; other bacterial gastrointestinal infectious diseases showed either a decrease or no change. The incidence of all other viral diseases decreased. In the United States, the weekly numbers of Salmonella, Campylobacter, typhoid, shigellosis, and hepatitis A virus cases sharply decreased after the COVID-19 outbreak. The weekly case numbers of all viral diseases markedly decreased in both countries; however, bacterial gastrointestinal infectious diseases showed a different pattern.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of gastrointestinal infectious diseases decreased after the COVID-19 outbreak. In contrast, Campylobacter infections showed an increasing trend in Korea, but a decreasing trend in the United States. Further studies are needed to elucidate the different trends in bacterial and viral infectious diseases before and after non-pharmaceutical interventions and between different countries.

Norovirus: Facts and Reflections from Past, Present, and Future

Human Norovirus is currently the main viral cause of acute gastroenteritis (AGEs) in most countries worldwide. Nearly 50 years after the discovery of the "Norwalk virus" by Kapikian and colleagues, the scientific and medical community continue to generate new knowledge on the full biological and disease spectrum of Norovirus infection. Nevertheless, several areas remain incompletely understood due to the serious constraints to effectively replicate and propagate the virus. Here, we present a narrated historic perspective and summarize our current knowledge, including insights and reflections on current points of interest for a broad medical community, including clinical and molecular epidemiology, viral-host-microbiota interactions, antivirals, and vaccine prototypes. We also include a reflection on the present and future impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on Norovirus infection and disease.

Long-term dynamics of Norovirus transmission in Japan, 2005-2019

Norovirus continues to evolve, adjusting its pathogenesis and transmissibility. In the present study, we systematically collected datasets on Norovirus outbreaks in Japan from 2005 to 2019 and analyzed time-dependent changes in the asymptomatic ratio, the probability of virus detection, and the probability of infection given exposure. Reports of 1,728 outbreaks were published, and feces from all involved individuals, including those with asymptomatic infection, were tested for virus in 434 outbreaks. We found that the outbreak size did not markedly change over this period, but the variance in outbreak size increased during the winter (November–April). Assuming that natural history parameters did not vary over time, the asymptomatic ratio, the probability of virus detection, and the probability of infection given exposure were estimated to be 18.6%, 63.3% and 84.5%, respectively. However, a model with time-varying natural history parameters yielded better goodness-of-fit and suggested that the asymptomatic ratio varied by year. The asymptomatic ratio was as high as 25.8% for outbreaks caused by genotype GII.4 noroviruses. We conclude that Norovirus transmissibility has not changed markedly since 2005, and that yearly variation in the asymptomatic ratio could potentially be explained by the circulating dominant genotype.

Changes in the Occurrence of Gastrointestinal Infections after COVID-19 in Korea

BACKGROUND

After the global epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), lifestyle changes to curb the spread of COVID-19 (e.g., wearing a mask, hand washing, and social distancing) have also affected the outbreak of other infectious diseases. However, few studies have been conducted on whether the incidence of gastrointestinal infections has changed over the past year with COVID-19. In this study, we examined how the incidence of gastrointestinal infections has changed since COVID-19 outbreak through open data.

METHODS

We summarized the data on the several viruses and bacteria that cause gastrointestinal infections from the open data of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency for 3 years from March 2018 to February 2021 (from Spring 2018 to Winter 2020). Moreover, we confirmed three most common legal gastrointestinal infectious pathogens from March 2016.

RESULTS

From March 2020, when the COVID-19 epidemic was in full swing and social distancing and personal hygiene management were heavily emphasized, the incidence of infection from each virus was drastically decreased. The reduction rates compared to the averages of the last 2 years were as follows: total viruses 31.9%, norovirus 40.2%, group A rotavirus 31.8%, enteric adenovirus 13.4%, astrovirus 7.0%, and sapovirus 12.2%. Among bacterial pathogens, the infection rates of Campylobacter and Clostridium perfringens did not decrease but rather increased in some periods when compared to the average of the last two years. The incidence of nontyphoidal Salmonella, Staphylococcus aureus, or enteropathogenic Escherichia coli somewhat decreased but not significantly compared to the previous two years.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of infection from gastrointestinal viruses, which are mainly caused by the fecal-to-oral route and require direct contact among people, was significantly reduced, whereas the incidence of bacterial pathogens, which have food-mediated transmission as the main cause of infection, did not decrease significantly.

Effect of a wet market on coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission dynamics in China, 2019-2020

OBJECTIVES

The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) originating from Wuhan spread rapidly throughout China. While its origin remains uncertain, accumulating evidence links a wet market with the early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan. Similarly, the influence of the marketplace on the early transmission dynamics is yet to be investigated.

METHODS

Using the daily series of COVID-19 incidence, stratified according to contact history with the market, we have conducted quantitative modeling analyses to estimate the reproduction numbers (R) for market-to-human and human-to-human transmission, the reporting probability, and the early effects of public health interventions.

RESULTS

We estimated R at 0.24 (95% CrI: 0.01-1.38) for market-to-human transmission and 2.37 (95% CrI: 2.08-2.71) for human-to-human transmission during the early spread in China (2019-2020). Moreover, we estimated that the reporting rate for cases stemming from market-to-human transmission was 2-34 fold higher than that for cases stemming from human-to-human transmission, suggesting that contact history with the wet market played a key role in identifying COVID-19 cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Our R estimate tied to market-to-human transmission had substantial uncertainty, but it was significantly lower compared with the reproduction number driving human-to-human transmission. Our results also suggest that asymptomatic and subclinical infections constitute a substantial component of the COVID-19 morbidity burden.

High transmissibility of norovirus among infants and school children during the 2016/17 season in Osaka, Japan

The number of person-to-person transmitted norovirus cases (n = 4,712) in school children in Osaka, Japan, during 2016/17 was the largest since 2012/13. Norovirus outbreaks were reported by 101 schools including 53 nursery schools (1,927 cases), 18 kindergartens (1,086 cases) and 30 elementary schools (1,699 cases). The dominant genotype among outbreaks was GII.P16-GII.2 (57.4%; 58/101), followed by GII.P2-GII.2 (8.9%; 9/101) and GII.P7-GII.6 (5.9%; 6/101). GII.4 was not detected despite dominance in previous years.

The prevalence of non-GII.4 norovirus genotypes in acute gastroenteritis outbreaks in Jinan, China

Noroviruses (NoVs) are the leading cause of acute viral gastroenteritis outbreaks. From June 2015 to March 2017, fifteen outbreaks of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) were reported to the Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention in China. To identify the circulating NoV genotypes associated with outbreaks in Jinan, China, 414 specimens from the 15 outbreaks were collected and analyzed for the causative viruses, and phylogenetic analysis was performed on the NoV-positive strains. The NoV detection rate was 57.5% (238/414), and a total of 14 outbreaks were caused by NoVs (eight by infection with genogroup II (GII), five by mixed infection with GI and GII, and one by mixed infection with GII and rotavirus (RoV)-A). A total of 75 NoV sequences were obtained from 13 NoV-positive outbreaks and classified into seven genotypes (38 GII.17, 13 GII.2, 4 GII.3, 4 GII.1, 10 GI.6, 5 GI.5 and 1 GI.3), while GII.4 was not identified. The most prevalent genotype changed yearly during the 2015–2017 period. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that these NoV genotypes had high homology with the strains circulating worldwide, especially strains from Asian countries and cities. Our study illustrated that multiple non-GII.4 NoV genotypes were prevalent in outbreaks of AGE in Jinan, China. Year-round surveillance of multiple NoV genotypes could help health authorities reduce the impact of NoV outbreaks on public health.

An outbreak of norovirus infection caused by ice cubes and a leaking air ventilation valve

A gastrointestinal outbreak was reported among 154 diners who attended a Christmas buffet on the 9 and 10 December 2016. A retrospective cohort study was undertaken. Faecal samples, water, ice and an air ventilation device were tested for indicators and routine pathogens. Altogether 26% (24/91) fulfilled the case definition of having typical viral gastrointestinal symptoms. Norovirus genogroup I was detected in faecal samples from three cases. One of these cases tested positive also for sapovirus and had a family member testing positive for both norovirus and sapovirus. A diner who drank water or drinks with ice cubes (risk ratios (RR) 6.5, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.5–113.0) or both (RR 8.2, 95% CI 1.7–145.5) had an increased risk in a dose-response manner. Ice cubes from three vending machines had high levels of heterotrophic bacteria. A faulty air ventilation valve in the space where the ice cube machine was located was considered a likely cause of this outbreak. Leaking air ventilation valves may represent a neglected route of transmission in viral gastrointestinal outbreaks.

Household transmission of acute gastroenteritis during the winter season in Japan

Objectives

Acute gastroenteritis, including illness caused by norovirus, is sometimes transmissible among susceptible persons who experience close contact, including those within a household, and it disturbs social activities of patients and their family. However, epidemiological assessment of the transmissibility and its heterogeneity has not been conducted. The present study aimed to quantify the frequency of household transmission that was likely caused by norovirus, and characterize its determinants.

Methods

A household survey was conducted, analyzing the history of suspected norovirus infection from January to March, 2017. Noro-like illness was clinically defined as a patient with either: (i) diarrhea or vomiting multiple times a day; or (ii) diarrhea or vomiting persisting for 2 or more days.

Results

Among 380 households, 132 households (34.7%) were eligible for epidemiological analysis, with an estimated secondary attack risk of 13.8% (38/276). Age-specific secondary attack risk was highest among index case patients aged 0 to 14 years (25.8%). The prevalence of vomiting in this age group was higher than in other age groups, with an odds ratio of household transmission estimated at 4.3.

Conclusions

Age-dependent heterogeneity was successfully identified, offering critical insights into future considerations for norovirus control at various social settings.

Norovirus transmission dynamics: a modelling review

Norovirus is one of the leading causes of viral gastroenteritis worldwide and responsible for substantial morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. To further understanding of the epidemiology and control of norovirus, there has been much recent interest in describing the transmission dynamics of norovirus through mathematical models. In this study, we review the current modelling approaches for norovirus transmission. We examine the data and methods used to estimate these models that vary structurally and parametrically between different epidemiological contexts. Many of the existing studies at population level have focused on the same case notification dataset, whereas models from outbreak settings are highly specific and difficult to generalise. In this review, we explore the consistency in the description of norovirus transmission dynamics and the robustness of parameter estimates between studies. In particular, we find that there is considerable variability in estimates of key parameters such as the basic reproduction number, which may mean that the effort required to control norovirus at the population level may currently be underestimated.