Long term monitoring of jaguars in the Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary, Belize; Implications for camera trap studies of carnivores

Tourism-supported working lands sustain a growing jaguar population in the Colombian Llanos

Understanding large carnivore demography on human-dominated lands is a priority to inform conservation strategies, yet few studies examine long-term trends. Jaguars (Panthera onca) are one such species whose population trends and survival rates remain unknown across working lands. We integrated nine years of camera trap data and tourist photos to estimate jaguar density, survival, abundance, and probability of tourist sightings on a working ranch and tourism destination in Colombia. We found that abundance increased from five individuals in 2014 to 28 in 2022, and density increased from 1.88 ± 0.87 per 100 km² in 2014 to 3.80 ± 1.08 jaguars per 100 km² in 2022. The probability of a tourist viewing a jaguar increased from 0% in 2014 to 40% in 2020 before the Covid-19 pandemic. Our results are the first robust estimates of jaguar survival and abundance on working lands. Our findings highlight the importance of productive lands for jaguar conservation and suggest that a tourism destination and working ranch can host an abundant population of jaguars when accompanied by conservation agreements and conflict interventions. Our analytical model that combines conventional data collection with tourist sightings can be applied to other species that are observed during tourism activities.Entender los patrones demográficos de los grandes carnívoros al interior de paisajes antrópicos es fundamental para el diseño de estrategias de conservación efectivas. En el Neotrópico, el jaguar (Panthera onca) es una de estas especies cuyas tendencias poblacionales y tasas de supervivencia en paisajes productivos son desconocidas. Para entender mejor estas dinámicas, integramos nueve años de fototrampeo junto a fotos de turistas para estimar la densidad, supervivencia, abundancia y probabilidad de avistamiento de esta especie en una finca ganadera y destino turístico en Colombia. Entre 2014 y 2022 encontramos que la abundancia incrementó de cinco a 28 individuos y la densidad de 1.88 ± 0.87 jaguares/ 100 km² a 3.80 ± 1.08 jaguares/ 100 km². La probabilidad de avistamiento por turistas aumentó de 0% en 2014 a 40% en 2020 antes de la pandemia del Covid-19. Nuestros resultados presentan las primeras estimaciones robustas de abundancia y supervivencia de este felino en paisajes antrópicos dónde el manejo de sistemas productivos combinados con turismo e intervenciones para la mitigación del conflicto puede albergar poblaciones abundantes de jaguares, demostrando su importancia para la conservación de esta especie. Nuestro modelo, al combinar datos convencionales con avistamientos, podría ser aplicado a otras especies observadas durante actividades turísticas.

Multi-lingual multi-platform investigations of online trade in jaguar parts

We conducted research to understand online trade in jaguar parts and develop tools of utility for jaguars and other species. Our research took place to identify potential trade across 31 online platforms in Spanish, Portuguese, English, Dutch, French, Chinese, and Vietnamese. We identified 230 posts from between 2009 and 2019. We screened the images of animal parts shown in search results to verify if from jaguar; 71 posts on 12 different platforms in four languages were accompanied by images identified as definitely jaguar, including a total of 125 jaguar parts (50.7% posts in Spanish, 25.4% Portuguese, 22.5% Chinese and 1.4% French). Search effort varied among languages due to staff availability. Standardizing for effort across languages by dividing number of posts advertising jaguars by search time and number of individual searches completed via term/platform combinations changed the proportions the rankings of posts adjusted for effort were led by Portuguese, Chinese, and Spanish. Teeth were the most common part; 156 posts offered at least 367 teeth and from these, 95 were assessed as definitely jaguar; 71 of which could be linked to a location, with the majority offered for sale from Mexico, China, Bolivia, and Brazil (26.8, 25.4, 16.9, and 12.7% respectively). The second most traded item, skins and derivative items were only identified from Latin America: Brazil (7), followed by Peru (6), Bolivia (3), Mexico (2 and 1 skin piece), and Nicaragua and Venezuela (1 each). Whether by number of posts or pieces, the most commonly parts were: teeth, skins/pieces of skins, heads, and bodies. Our research took place within a longer-term project to assist law enforcement in host countries to better identify potential illegal trade and presents a snapshot of online jaguar trade and methods that also may have utility for many species traded online.

Unveiling demographic and mating strategies of Panthera onca in the Pantanal, Brazil

We conducted the first long-term and large-scale study of demographic characteristics and reproductive behavior in a wild jaguar (Panthera onca) population. Data were collected through a combination of direct observations and camera trapping on a study area that operates both as a cattle ranch and ecotourism destination. Jaguars exhibited two birth peaks: April/May and October/November, that are the end and the beginning of the wet season in the Pantanal, respectively. The average litter size was 1.43 ± 0.65. Single cubs made up a total of 65.7% of the births, and we found a slight predominance of females (1.15:1 ratio) in litters. The mean age at independence was 17.6 ± 0.98 months, with sex-biased dispersal, with all males (n = 27) leaving the natal home range and 63.6% of females exhibiting philopatry. The interbirth intervals were 21.8 ± 3.2 months and the mean age at first parturition was 31.8 ± 4.2 months. Our results estimated a lifetime reproductive success for female jaguars of 8.13 cubs. Our observations also indicate that female jaguars can display mating behavior during cub rearing or pregnancy, representing 41.4% of the consorts and copulations recorded. We speculate that this behavior has evolved as a defense against infanticide and physical harm to the female. To our knowledge, this is the first time that such behavior is described for this species. All aggressive interactions between females involved the presence of cubs, following the offspring–defense hypothesis, that lead to territoriality among females in mammals, regardless of food availability. In the face of growing threats to this apex predator, this work unveils several aspects of its natural history, representing a baseline for comparison with future research and providing critical information for population viability analysis and conservation planning in the long term.

Dietary similarity among jaguars (Panthera onca) in a high-density population

Prey remains found in carnivore scats provide generalised dietary profiles of sampled populations. The profile may be biased if individual diets differ and some individuals are over- or under-represented in the sample. Quantifying individual contributions allows us to recognise these potential biases and better interpret generalised profiles. Knowing the dietary differences or similarity between individuals can help us to understand selection pressures and identify drivers of distribution and abundance. Using the results of individual faecal genotyping, we re-interpreted our previously-published generalised dietary profile of an elusive, neotropical felid, the jaguar (Panthera onca; Foster et al. (2010)). We quantified individual sample sizes, assessed whether the generalised profile was influenced by the inclusion of scats originating from the same individual and prey carcass (pseudo-replication), and quantified the distribution of prey species among individuals. From an original sample of 322 jaguar scats from a high-density jaguar population in Belize, we identified 206 prey items (individual prey animals) in 176 independent scats representing 32 jaguars (26 males, 3 females, 3 unknown sex). The influence of pseudo-replication in the original dietary profile was minimal. The majority of scats (94%) came from male jaguars. Eight males accounted for two-thirds of the prey items, while 24 jaguars each contributed <5% of the prey items. With few exceptions, the jaguars followed the same broad diet, a 2:1:1 ratio of nine-banded armadillos (Dasypus noveminctus), other vertebrates ≤10kg, and ungulates, primarily peccaries (Tayassu pecari and Pecari tajacu). We noted prey switching between wild and domestic ungulates for individuals spanning protected forests and farmland. This first scat-based study exploring individual variation in jaguar diet highlights the importance of armadillos and peccaries for male jaguars in Belize, the need for research on their roles in supporting high-density jaguar populations, and the need for more data on female diet from across the jaguar range.

García, M. André Sandoval-Lemus, Vivian R. González-Castillo, Gerber D. Guzmán-Flores, Cristel M. Pineda. New queen? Evidence of a long-living Jaguar Panthera onca (Mammalia: Carnivora: Felidae) in Tikal National Park, Guatemala

Despite the abundant literature on the Jaguar Panthera onca, several aspects of its natural history and ecology such as longevity and residency of wild individuals are still little studied and poorly known. We conducted a camera trapping study in Tikal National Park, Guatemala, during the dry season and early rainy season from April to July 2018. We compared our results with results of previous studies and thereby came across a presumably female adult individual that was recorded in 2009 and again during our survey. We therefore assume that this virtual female is a potential long-term resident Jaguar in this core zone of the Selva Maya, one of the largest and well-conserved forests in the Neotropics and a priority area for the conservation of this species. We recommend implementing systematic and long-termed studies in Guatemala as a tool for the evaluation and management of the species, and to monitor the effectiveness of protected and priority areas in order to ensure the conservation of the Jaguar.

A questionnaire-based investigation to explore the social and legal implications derived from the use of camera traps for wildlife monitoring and conservation

Camera traps are non-invasive monitoring tools largely used to detect species presence or population dynamics. The use of camera traps for wildlife conservation purposes raises questions about privacy invasion when images of people are taken. Throughout the use of an online questionnaire survey, we assessed the degree of knowledge about social and legal implications derived from the deployment of camera traps. Our results revealed a consistent gap in term of knowledge about legal implications derived by the use of camera traps among respondents. Most of those who were aware of such legislation did not take specific actions to prevent legal consequences, probably to reduce the risk of theft or vandalism. Most respondents declared that images of people were unintentionally collected. Some of them stated that images which may violate privacy issues or showed nefarious activities were stored for internal processing or reported to local authorities. Our research thus confirmed that privacy invasion is a widely poorly treated issue in the wildlife conservation dimension. Furthermore, despite camera traps being used to improve conservation efforts, the detection of individuals engaged in private or illegal activities poses further complications in terms of pursuance of legal actions when an individual is identified by these images. So, appropriate guidelines for images analysis need to be designed, and subsequently followed. Lastly, adopting effective methods to protect cameras from the risk of theft and/or vandalism is of primary concern.

Landscape patterns in the occupancy of jaguars (Panthera onca) and their primary prey species in a disturbed region of the Selva Maya in Mexico

In order to prioritize the conservation and management efforts to protect jaguars (Panthera onca), it is of utmost importance to determine their tolerance in face of human disturbances, habitat modifications and varying degrees of prey availability. We assessed the occupancy probability of jaguars and five of their most common prey species throughout a heterogeneous landscape in the Selva Maya in southern Mexico: armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus), coati (Nasua narica), paca (Cuniculus paca), white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), and collared peccary (Dicotyles tajacu). Additionally, we projected prey and Jaguar occupancies onto a 5993 km2 landscape based on the habitat type in the area. We averaged the best prey models ranked by QAICc and found that white-tailed deer had the highest average occupancy probability of 0.72 ± 0.06 and paca the lowest with 0.14 ± 0.04. The average occupancy probability for jaguars was 0.35 ± 0.07 and the strongest predictor of jaguar occupancy was a positive effect of collared peccary occupancy. These findings support previous studies that show that predator distribution is largely influenced by their prey availability, even in the midst of degraded habitats, and underlies the essential need to incorporate protection plans for prey species in jaguar conservation strategies.

Beyond words: From jaguar population trends to conservation and public policy in Mexico

The jaguar (Panthera onca) is one of the most threatened carnivores in the Americas. Despite a long history of research on this charismatic species, to date there have been few systematic efforts to assess its population size and status in most countries across its distribution range. We present here the results of the two National Jaguar Surveys for Mexico, the first national censuses in any country within the species distribution. We estimated jaguar densities from field data collected at 13 localities in 2008-2010 (2010 hereafter) and 11 localities in 2016-2018 (2018 hereafter). We used the 2010 census results as the basis to develop a National Jaguar Conservation Strategy that identified critical issues for jaguar conservation in Mexico. We worked with the Mexican government to implement the conservation strategy and then evaluated its effectivity. To compare the 2010 and 2018 results, we estimated the amount of jaguar-suitable habitat in the entire country based on an ecological niche model for both periods. Suitable jaguar habitat covered ~267,063 km2 (13.9% of the country's territory) in 2010 and ~ 288,890 km2 (~14.8% of the country's territory) in 2018. Using the most conservative density values for each priority region, we estimated jaguar densities for both the high and low suitable habitats. The total jaguar population was estimated in ~4,000 individuals for 2010 census and ~4,800 for the 2018 census. The Yucatan Peninsula was the region with the largest population, around 2000 jaguars, in both censuses. Our promising results indicate that the actions we proposed in the National Jaguar Conservation Strategy, some of which have been implemented working together with the Federal Government, other NGO's, and land owners, are improving jaguar conservation in Mexico. The continuation of surveys and monitoring programs of the jaguar populations in Mexico will provide accurate information to design and implement effective, science-based conservation measures to try to ensure that robust jaguar populations remain a permanent fixture of Mexico's natural heritage.

Long-term monitoring of margays (Leopardus wiedii): Implications for understanding low detection rates

Population assessments of wide-ranging, cryptic, terrestrial mammals rely on camera trap surveys. While camera trapping is a powerful method of detecting presence, it is difficult distinguishing rarity from low detection rate. The margay (Leopardus wiedii) is an example of a species considered rare based on its low detection rates across its range. Although margays have a wide distribution, detection rates with camera traps are universally low; consequently, the species is listed as Near Threatened. Our 12-year camera trap study of margays in protected broadleaf forest in Belize suggests that while margays have low detection rate, they do not seem to be rare, rather that they are difficult to detect with camera traps. We detected a maximum of 187 individuals, all with few or no recaptures over the years (mean = 2.0 captures/individual ± SD 2.1), with two-thirds of individuals detected only once. The few individuals that were recaptured across years exhibited long tenures up to 9 years and were at least 10 years old at their final detection. We detected multiple individuals of both sexes at the same locations during the same survey, suggesting overlapping ranges with non-exclusive territories, providing further evidence of a high-density population. By studying the sparse annual datasets across multiple years, we found evidence of an abundant margay population in the forest of the Cockscomb Basin, which might have been deemed low density and rare, if studied in the short term. We encourage more long-term camera trap studies to assess population status of semi-arboreal carnivore species that have hitherto been considered rare based on low detection rates.

Activity patterns of tayra (Eira barbara) across their distribution

Species’ activity patterns are driven by the need to meet basic requirements of food, social interactions, movement, and rest, but often are influenced by a variety of biotic and abiotic factors. We used camera-trap data to describe and compare the activity patterns of the relatively poorly studied tayra (Eira barbara) across 10 populations distributed from the south of Mexico to the north of Argentina, and attempted to identify biotic or abiotic factors that may be associated with variation in level of diurnality. In a subset of sites we also aimed to document potential seasonal variation in activity. We used a kernel density estimator based on the time of independent photographic events to calculate the proportion of diurnal, crepuscular, and nocturnal activity of each population. Tayras were mostly active during diurnal periods (79.31%, 759 records), with a lower proportion of crepuscular activity (18.07%, 173 records) yet we documented some variation in patterns across the 10 study areas (activity overlap coefficient varied from Δ 4 = 0.64 to Δ 1 = 0.95). In northern localities, activity peaked twice during the day (bimodal) with most activity ocurring in the morning, whereas closer to the geographical equator, activity was constant (unimodal) throughout the day, peaking at midday: activity either was unimodal or bimodal in southern localities. Despite investigating multiple potential abiotic and biotic predictors, only latitude was associated with variation in the proportion of diurnal activity by tayras across its range, with increased diurnal activity closer to the equator. Seasonal comparisons in activity showed a tendency to reduce diurnality in dry versus rainy seasons, but the pattern was not consistently significant. This is the most comprehensive description of tayra activity patterns to date, and lends novel insight into the potential flexibility of the species to adapt to local conditions.

Jaguar (Panthera onca) density and tenure in a critical biological corridor

We estimated jaguar density and tenure, and investigated ranging behavior, using camera traps across the Maya Forest Corridor, a human-influenced landscape in central Belize that forms the only remaining connection for jaguar populations inhabiting two regional forest blocks: the Selva Maya and the Maya Mountain Massif. Jaguars were ubiquitous across the study area. Similar to the neighboring Selva Maya, mean density ranged from 1.5 to 3.1 jaguars per 100 km2, estimated by spatial capture-recapture models. Cameras detected almost twice as many males as females, probably reflecting detection bias, and males ranged more widely than females within the camera grid. Both sexes crossed two major rivers, while highway crossings were rare and male-biased, raising concern that the highway could prevent female movement if traffic increases. Jaguars were more transient where the landscape was fragmented with settlements and agriculture than in contiguous forest. Compared with jaguars in the protected forests of the Maya Mountains, jaguars in central Belize displayed a lower potential for investment in intraspecific communication, indicative of a lower quality landscape; however, we did detect mating behavior and juveniles. Tenure of individuals was shorter than in the protected forests, with a higher turnover rate for males than females. At least three-quarters of reported jaguar deaths caused by people were male jaguars, and the majority was retaliation for livestock predation. Jaguars seem relatively tolerant to the human-influenced landscape of central Belize. However, intensification of game hunting and lethal control of predators would threaten population persistence, while increased highway traffic and clear-cutting riparian forest would severely limit the corridor function. Our results show that the viability of the corridor, and thus the long-term survival of jaguar populations in this region, will depend on appropriate land-use planning, nonlethal control of livestock predators, enforcement of game hunting regulations, and wildlife-friendly features in future road developments.

Rise and fall of a Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) stepping-stone population in central Germany

After having been extinct for approximately 200 years, the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) is currently being reintroduced in several European countries. However, it still occurs in several local, isolated populations. Given the patchy distribution of its forest habitat within a human-dominated landscape, the formation of population stepping-stones, i.e., small lynx occurrences between source populations, has been suggested an important mechanism for the expansion of lynx in central Europe. We studied the population history of such a stepping-stone population, which emerged approximately 60 km southwest of a larger reintroduced population in central Germany. We also examined migrations of lynx between the source population and the stepping-stone. At the beginning of our study in autumn 2014, our study population consisted of a minimum number of six resident individuals of both sexes that successfully reproduced in the area. However, over the course of only a single year, this subpopulation declined to only a single resident male as a consequence of death and emigration. In the 4 years after this decline, the subpopulation did not recover due to the absence of female dispersal into the area. Our study illustrates the vulnerability of small, isolated populations to stochastic demographic events and suggests that constraints on female dispersal are a major reason for the slow expansion of lynx in central Europe. To promote the expansion of lynx, active population management will be required, involving the translocation of females to reinforce existing stepping-stone populations or to create new ones.

Spatially explicit capture recapture density estimates: Robustness, accuracy and precision in a long-term study of jaguars (Panthera onca)

Camera trapping is the standard field method of monitoring cryptic, low-density mammal populations. Typically, researchers run camera surveys for 60 to 90 days and estimate density using closed population spatially explicit capture-recapture (SCR) models. The SCR models estimate density, capture probability (g0), and a scale parameter (σ) that reflects ranging behaviour. We used a year of camera data from 20 camera stations to estimate the density of male jaguars (Panthera onca) in the Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary in Belize, using closed population SCR models. We subsampled the dataset into 276 90-day sessions and 186 180-day sessions. Estimated density fluctuated from 0.51 to 5.30 male jaguars / 100 km2 between the 90-day sessions, with comparatively robust and precise estimates for the 180-day sessions (0.73 to 3.75 male jaguars / 100 km2). We explain the variation in density estimates from the 90-day sessions in terms of temporal variation in social behaviour, specifically male competition and mating events during the three-month wet season. Density estimates from the 90-day sessions varied with σ, but not with the number of individuals detected, suggesting that variation in density was almost fully attributable to changes in estimated ranging behaviour. We found that the models overestimated σ when compared to the mean ranging distance derived from GPS tracking data from two collared individuals in the camera grid. Overestimation of σ when compared to GPS collar data was more pronounced for the 180-day sessions than the 90-day sessions. We conclude that one-off ('snap-shot') short-term, small-scale camera trap surveys do not sufficiently sample wide-ranging large carnivores. When using SCR models to estimate the density from these data, we caution against the use of poor sampling designs and/or misinterpretation of scope of inference. Although the density estimates from one-off, short-term, small-scale camera trap surveys may be statistically accurate within each short-term sampling period, the variation between density estimates from multiple sessions throughout the year illustrate that the estimates obtained should be carefully interpreted and extrapolated, because different factors, such as temporal stochasticity in behaviour of a few individuals, may have strong repercussions on density estimates. Because of temporal variation in behaviour, reliable density estimates will require larger samples of individuals and spatial recaptures than those presented in this study (mean +/- SD = 14.2 +/- 1.2 individuals, 37.7 +/- 4.7 spatial recaptures, N = 276 sessions), which are representative of, or higher than published sample sizes. To satisfy the need for larger samples, camera surveys will need to be more expansive with a higher density of stations. In the absence of this, we advocate longer sampling periods and subsampling through time as a means of understanding and describing stability or variation between density estimates.

Population genetic structure and habitat connectivity for jaguar (Panthera onca) conservation in Central Belize

BACKGROUND

Connectivity among jaguar (Panthera onca) populations will ensure natural gene flow and the long-term survival of the species throughout its range. Jaguar conservation efforts have focused primarily on connecting suitable habitat in a broad-scale. Accelerated habitat reduction, human-wildlife conflict, limited funding, and the complexity of jaguar behaviour have proven challenging to maintain connectivity between populations effectively. Here, we used non-invasive genetic sampling and individual-based conservation genetic analyses to assess genetic diversity and levels of genetic connectivity between individuals in the Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary and the Maya Forest Corridor. We used expert knowledge and scientific literature to develop models of landscape permeability based on circuit theory with fine-scale landscape features as ecosystem types, distance to human settlements and roads to predict the most probable jaguar movement across central Belize.

RESULTS

We used 12 highly polymorphic microsatellite loci to identify 50 individual jaguars. We detected high levels of genetic diversity across loci (HE = 0.61, HO = 0.55, and NA = 9.33). Using Bayesian clustering and multivariate models to assess gene flow and genetic structure, we identified one single group of jaguars (K = 1). We identified critical areas for jaguar movement that fall outside the boundaries of current protected areas in central Belize. We detected two main areas of high landscape permeability in a stretch of approximately 18 km between Sittee River Forest Reserve and Manatee Forest Reserve that may increase functional connectivity and facilitate jaguar dispersal from and to Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary. Our analysis provides important insights on fine-scale genetic and landscape connectivity of jaguars in central Belize, an area of conservation concern.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of our study demonstrate high levels of relatively recent gene flow for jaguars between two study sites in central Belize. Our landscape analysis detected corridors of expected jaguar movement between the Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary and the Maya Forest Corridor. We highlight the importance of maintaining already established corridors and consolidating new areas that further promote jaguar movement across suitable habitat beyond the boundaries of currently protected areas. Continued conservation efforts within identified corridors will further maintain and increase genetic connectivity in central Belize.