Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of bovine brucellosis surveillance in a disease-free country using stochastic scenario tree modelling

Approaches for disease prioritization and decision-making in animal health, 2000-2021: a structured scoping review

This scoping review identifies and describes the methods used to prioritize diseases for resource allocation across disease control, surveillance, and research and the methods used generally in decision-making on animal health policy. Three electronic databases (Medline/PubMed, Embase, and CAB Abstracts) were searched for articles from 2000 to 2021. Searches identified 6, 395 articles after de-duplication, with an additional 64 articles added manually. A total of 6, 460 articles were imported to online document review management software (sysrev.com) for screening. Based on inclusion and exclusion criteria, 532 articles passed the first screening, and after a second round of screening, 336 articles were recommended for full review. A total of 40 articles were removed after data extraction. Another 11 articles were added, having been obtained from cross-citations of already identified articles, providing a total of 307 articles to be considered in the scoping review. The results show that the main methods used for disease prioritization were based on economic analysis, multi-criteria evaluation, risk assessment, simple ranking, spatial risk mapping, and simulation modeling. Disease prioritization was performed to aid in decision-making related to various categories: (1) disease control, prevention, or eradication strategies, (2) general organizational strategy, (3) identification of high-risk areas or populations, (4) assessment of risk of disease introduction or occurrence, (5) disease surveillance, and (6) research priority setting. Of the articles included in data extraction, 50.5% had a national focus, 12.3% were local, 11.9% were regional, 6.5% were sub-national, and 3.9% were global. In 15.2% of the articles, the geographic focus was not specified. The scoping review revealed the lack of comprehensive, integrated, and mutually compatible approaches to disease prioritization and decision support tools for animal health. We recommend that future studies should focus on creating comprehensive and harmonized frameworks describing methods for disease prioritization and decision-making tools in animal health.

A systematic review of economic assessments for brucellosis control interventions in livestock populations

Brucellosis in livestock is a disease of paramount importance to animal and human health authorities due to its socio-economic and public health consequences. Benefit cost analyses can help policymakers decide whether allocation of resources is economically beneficial to cover the costs of brucellosis control interventions in populations. One broad question of interest is: what are the consequences of acting, or failing to act, on policy options of selected intervention scenarios (e.g., vaccination, test-and-slaughter, vaccination combined with test-and-slaughter, versus a status-quo scenario). The objective of the systematic review reported here was to conduct a critical appraisal of published research reports of economic assessments of brucellosis control interventions in livestock populations. The systematic review followed standard guidelines using a Population, Intervention, Comparison, Outcome, and Context framework and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. The review targeted research reports focused on brucellosis control interventions in livestock populations at the national or regional level. Economic outcomes of interest were benefit-cost ratio (BCR), net present value, internal rate of return, or payback period. Eleven studies conducted in Brazil, China, India, Iraq, Mexico, Mongolia, Spain, Turkey, or the USA met the inclusion criteria and were included. The baseline prevalence of brucellosis in selected study populations ranged from 1.4% in cattle in Turkey to 20% in goats in Mexico. In six studies, selected intervention scenarios of vaccination alone produced BCRs that ranged from 3.2 in yaks in China or in cattle, sheep and goats in Mongolia, to 21.3 in cattle and/or buffalo in India. In three studies, interventions of test-and-slaughter produced BCRs that ranged from - 1.2 in goats in Mexico to 0.6 in cattle in Spain. In four studies, vaccination in combination with test-and-slaughter produced BCRs that ranged from 0.2 in yaks in China to 3.7 in cattle and buffalo in India. In seven studies, using sensitivity analysis, different input parameters (prevalence of brucellosis, meat price, cashmere price, vaccination coverage, test-and-slaughter coverage, milk price, vaccination protection, abortion cost, abortion rate, or price of lamb) had an impact on economic outcomes. Vaccination alone was cost-effective, but test-and-slaughter was not, for brucellosis control in selected livestock populations in focus countries. Vaccination in combination with test-and-slaughter produced profitable or nonprofitable economic outcomes. While most studies reported the cost and benefits of implementing brucellosis control interventions, only one study explained socio-economic consequences of economic outcomes, when acting, or failing to act, on selected interventions in livestock populations.

Assessment of the Current Surveillance System for Human Leptospirosis in Ecuador by Decision Analytic Modeling

Leptospirosis is a globally disseminated zoonotic disease with no national surveillance systems. On the other hand, surveillance is crucial for improving population health, and surveillance systems produce data that motivates action. Unfortunately, like many other countries, Ecuador put in place a monitoring system that has never been tested. The goal of this study was to use scenario tree modeling to assess the sensitivity of Ecuador's current national surveillance system to human leptospirosis as the basis for an economic assessment of the system. We created a decision-tree model to analyze the current system's sensitivity. The inputs were described as probabilities distributions, and the model assessed the program's sensitivity as an output. The model also considers the geographical and weather variations across Ecuador's three continental regions: Andean, Amazonia, and the Coast. Several data sources were used to create the model, including leptospirosis records from Ecuador's Ministry of Public Health, national and international literature, and expert elicitation, all of which were incorporated in a Bayesian framework. We were able to determine the most critical parameters influencing each scenario's output (CSU) sensitivity through sensitivity analysis. The Coast region had the best sensitivity scenario, with a median of 0.85% (IC 95% 0.41-0.99), followed by the Amazonia with a median of 0.54% (CI 95% 0.18-0.99) and the Andes with a median of 0.29% (CI 95% 0.02-0.89). As per the sensitivity study, the most influential criteria on the system's sensitivity were "Attendance or probability of going to a health center" and "probability of having symptoms," notably for the Coast and Amazonia Regions.

Economic Benefits of Diagnostic Testing in Livestock: Anaplasmosis in Cattle

Anaplasmosis is a costly livestock disease that persists across the United States and the world. While the traditional control options of feed additives, vaccination, and post-infection antibiotic treatments exist, the highly infectious, often asymptomatic onset of anaplasmosis in cattle makes the optimal combination of disease control measures uncertain. Reducing the infection uncertainty through early detection may help producer management decisions and reduce the economic impact of anaplasmosis. To address this, we calculate the costs of applying a range of anaplasmosis control decisions for a representative cow-calf producer in the United States and extend existing analyses to incorporate early detection through diagnostic testing. We use parameters from extant literature, including for mortality, morbidity, and treatment costs to populate a stochastic, dynamic model. Updating the cost estimates finds that production losses account for the majority of anaplasmosis costs, following previous empirical estimates. Using these estimates in our decision model, the outcomes suggest that diagnostic testing with preventative treatments is the optimal herd management strategy. By further framing our findings in the context of three anaplasmosis infection regions in the United States (endemic, disease free, non-endemic buffer), we show that additional considerations exist, which can make sub-optimal control strategies competitive. Our analysis provides an initial exploration of the economic feasibility of diagnostic testing, while helping to assess the burden of anaplasmosis more accurately.

Assessment of the cost-effectiveness of alternative bovine tuberculosis surveillance protocols in French cattle farms using the mixed interferon gamma test

Periodic screening in farms, using intradermal cervical comparative tuberculin test (ICCT), is a component of the French ante mortem surveillance of bovine tuberculosis (bTB). Previous studies have estimated the cost-effectiveness of the French mandatory bTB screening protocols. In these protocols, a second ICCT (ICCT2) is performed 42 days after the first one (ICCT1), either on the entire herd (strict protocol) or in series on animals with non-negative results (reactors) to ICCT1 (compliant protocol). The 42-days interval reduced protocols' cost-effectiveness. To minimize this interval, we suggested two alternative protocols, in which a mixed interferon gamma test (IFNMIX), with better sensitivity than ICCT2 and comparable specificity, replaces the ICCT2, and is carried out directly after the ICCT1. In the strict alternative protocol, reactors to ICCT1 are culled to perform laboratory analyses (PCR, bacteriology). Negative results to these analyses imply the IFNMIX testing of the entire herd. In the compliant alternative protocol, only reactor(s) to ICCT1 are tested with IFNMIX, and animals with positive results to IFNMIX are culled for laboratory analyses. We evaluated these protocols through scenario tree modelling. The estimated cost-effectiveness indexes showed that the compliant alternative protocol was the most efficient. The strict protocols (mandatory and alternative) were never the most efficient, but were the most effective. Therefore, using IFNMIX instead of ICCT2 may be useful in reducing the costs of the compliant protocol used when the probability of infection is considered low. The strict alternative protocol may become more attractive would IFNMIX's price decreased.

Integrating data of veterinarians' practices in assessing the cost effectiveness of three components of the bovine tuberculosis surveillance system by intradermal tuberculin testing in French cattle farms through a scenario-tree approach

Disease surveillance systems' effectiveness relies on participants following prescribed practices. We developed a general method to improve a previous cost-effectiveness evaluation of three French screening program protocols for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) to account for the practices of participants by scenario tree modelling. This method relies on: 1) semi-directive interviews of participants to identify the variability of practices and potentially influential factors, and to understand the sociological context; 2) a quantitative survey, based on multiple-choice questions, to quantify various practices and identify significantly influential factors by multivariable regression analyses; 3) addition of the scenario-tree nodes corresponding to the practices and their influential factors and configuration of the new limbs according to the data of the quantitative survey. We used this approach to integrate data concerning veterinary practices and identify some failures to conform to regulatory guidelines regarding intradermal cervical comparative tuberculin test (SICCT) (testing and notification of non-negative results). Such nonconformities appeared to be mainly caused by cattle restraint issues and the perception of veterinarians of the bTB control program. Indeed, their perception of that program significantly influenced veterinarians' practices. We modelled the influence of the SICCT practices on the SICCT results. The incorporation of these data led to a major decrease of the herd sensitivity estimations relative to the previous assessments that did not incorporate data of practices (15% to 42% decrease). This result shows the important impact of veterinarians' practices and their influencing factors (such as perception of the bTB control program) on the effectiveness of the surveillance system.

Characterization and evolution of countries affected by bovine brucellosis (1996-2014)

This paper describes the global distribution and temporal evolution of bovine brucellosis due to Brucella abortus during a 19-year period (1996-2014) using the information officially reported to the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) by veterinary services of 156 countries. Variables that can influence the health status of bovine brucellosis (i.e., year, per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), continent and bovine population) were also analysed. Countries were classified into three categories of health situations: ENZOOTIC: countries infected, which may have been free of brucellosis but for periods of fewer than 3 years; NON-ENZOOTIC: countries where the disease was present but that had at least a 3-year period without the disease; and FREE: countries where the disease remained absent during the whole period. The countries free from bovine brucellosis, or in the process of eradication, were located in Oceania and Europe, while the more affected regions were Central and South America, Africa and parts of Asia. Among the Non-Enzootic countries, the results showed that a very high proportion managed to control the disease during the period of study, with a sharp decline in the percentage of infected countries from 71% in 1996 to 10% in 2014. Among the Enzootic countries, a much smaller proportion managed to control the disease, with a slight drop in the percentage of infected countries from 92% in 1996 to 80% in 2014. A relationship was found between the status of the disease and the availability of economic resources; thus, countries with a high GDP per capita tended to be free from bovine brucellosis. On the other hand, countries with a larger bovine population showed a greater probability to have the disease present. An increase in surveillance programmes and implementation of control policies were observed during the period of study.