Effect of climate dataset selection on simulations of terrestrial GPP: Highest uncertainty for tropical regions

Spatiotemporal Variation in Gross Primary Productivity and Their Responses to Climate in the Great Lakes Region of Sub-Saharan Africa during 2001–2020

The impacts of climate on spatiotemporal variations of eco-physiological and bio-physical factors have been widely explored in previous research, especially in dry areas. However, the understanding of gross primary productivity (GPP) variations and its interactions with climate in humid and semi-humid areas remains unclear. Based on hyperspectral satellite remotely sensed vegetation phenology processes and related indices and the re-analysed climate datasets, we investigated the seasonal and inter-annual variability of GPP by using different light-use efficiency (LUE) models including the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approaches (CASA) model, vegetation photosynthesis models (VPMChl and VPMCanopy) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) GPP products (MOD17A2H) during 2001–2020 over the Great Lakes region of Sub-Saharan Africa (GLR-SSA). The models’ validation against the in situ GPP-based upscaled observations (GPP-EC) indicated that these three models can explain 82%, 79% and 80% of GPP variations with root mean square error (RMSE) values of 5.7, 8.82 and 10.12 g C·m−2·yr−1, respectively. The spatiotemporal variations of GPP showed that the GLR-SSA experienced: (i) high GPP values during December-May; (ii) high annual GPP increase during 2002–2003, 2011–2013 and 2015–2016 and annual decreasing with a marked alternation in other years; (iii) evergreen broadleaf forests having the highest GPP values while grasslands and croplands showing lower GPP values. The spatial correlation between GPP and climate factors indicated 60% relative correlation between precipitation and GPP and 65% correction between surface air temperature and GPP. The results also showed high GPP values under wet conditions (in rainy seasons and humid areas) that significantly fell by the rise of dry conditions (in long dry season and arid areas). Therefore, these results showed that climate factors have potential impact on GPP variability in this region. However, these findings may provide a better understanding of climate implications on GPP variability in the GLR-SSA and other tropical climate zones.

Bayesian network based procedure for regional drought monitoring: The Seasonally Combinative Regional Drought Indicator

Drought is a complex natural hazard. It occurs due to a prolonged period of deficient in rainfall amount in a certain region. Unlike other natural hazards, drought hazard has a recurrent occurrence. Therefore, comprehensive drought monitoring is essential for regional climate control and water management authorities. In this paper, we have proposed a new drought indicator: the Seasonally Combinative Regional Drought Indicator (SCRDI). The SCRDI integrates Bayesian networking theory with Standardized Precipitation Temperature Index (SPTI) at varying gauge stations in various month/seasons. Application of SCRDI is based on five gauging stations of Northern Area of Pakistan. We have found that the proposed indicator accounts the effect of climate variation within a specified territory, accurately characterizes drought by capturing seasonal dependencies in geospatial variation scenario, and reduces the large/complex data for future drought monitoring. In summary, the proposed indicator can be used for comprehensive characterization and assessment of drought at a certain region.

Climate-Driven Variability and Trends in Plant Productivity Over Recent Decades Based on Three Global Products

Variability in climate exerts a strong influence on vegetation productivity (gross primary productivity; GPP), and therefore has a large impact on the land carbon sink. However, no direct observations of global GPP exist, and estimates rely on models that are constrained by observations at various spatial and temporal scales. Here, we assess the consistency in GPP from global products which extend for more than three decades; two observation-based approaches, the upscaling of FLUXNET site observations (FLUXCOM) and a remote sensing derived light use efficiency model (RS-LUE), and from a suite of terrestrial biosphere models (TRENDYv6). At local scales, we find high correlations in annual GPP among the products, with exceptions in tropical and high northern latitudes. On longer time scales, the products agree on the direction of trends over 58% of the land, with large increases across northern latitudes driven by warming trends. Further, tropical regions exhibit the largest interannual variability in GPP, with both rainforests and savannas contributing substantially. Variability in savanna GPP is likely predominantly driven by water availability, although temperature could play a role via soil moisture-atmosphere feedbacks. There is, however, no consensus on the magnitude and driver of variability of tropical forests, which suggest uncertainties in process representations and underlying observations remain. These results emphasize the need for more direct long-term observations of GPP along with an extension of in situ networks in underrepresented regions (e.g., tropical forests). Such capabilities would support efforts to better validate relevant processes in models, to more accurately estimate GPP.