The health impact of human papillomavirus vaccination in the situation of primary human papillomavirus screening: A mathematical modeling study

Safety profile assessment of HPV4 and HPV9 vaccines through the passive surveillance system of the Veneto Region (Italy) between 2008 and 2022: A 15-year retrospective observational study

In Veneto Region, HPV vaccine has been actively offered to 12 year-old females since 2008, and to 12 year-old males since 2015. The study aims to analyze the safety profile of HPV4v and HPV9v vaccines and perform a case-by-case review of conditions of interest. Spontaneous reports related to HPV uploaded to the database of the Regional Pharmacovigilance Center between 2008-2022 were included. HPV vaccine doses administered until April 2022 in the Veneto Region were considered to calculate the reporting rate (RR). Potential "safety concerns" examined as conditions of interest were included through Standardized MedDRA or preferred terms searching queries. The level of diagnostic certainty was evaluated as per the Brighton Collaboration case definition criteria. A total of 637 reports and 1316 Adverse Events Following Immunizations (AEFI) were retrieved: 469 for HPV4v (73.6 %) and 168 for HPV9v (26.4 %). Serious reports were 71 (11.1 %): 49 (10.4 %) for HPV4v and 22 (13.1 %) for HPV9v. The RR for serious events between 2008-2022 was 6.9/100,000 administered doses, with no differences by vaccine type. Females and adults showed higher overall RR compared to males and to children and adolescents (p < 0.001), this result was confirmed by stratifying analysis by vaccine type. One case of Guillain Barré syndrome, anaphylactic shock, thrombocytopenia, Henoch Schoenlein purpura and four generalized seizures were reviewed. Vaccinovigilance data from the Veneto Region reaffirm a good safety profile for HPV vaccination and found no vaccine-related unexpected events. Such a detailed analysis may assist healthcare providers to advocate properly for HPV vaccination.

Rapid elimination of cervical cancer while maintaining the harms and benefits ratio of cervical cancer screening: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and intensifying screening expedite cervical cancer (CC) elimination, yet also deteriorate the balance between harms and benefits of screening. We aimed to find screening strategies that eliminate CC rapidly but maintain an acceptable harms-benefits ratio of screening.

METHODS

Two microsimulation models (STDSIM and MISCAN) were applied to simulate HPV transmission and CC screening for the Dutch female population between 2022 and 2100. We estimated the CC elimination year and harms-benefits ratios of screening for 228 unique scenarios varying in vaccination (coverage and vaccine type) and screening (coverage and number of lifetime invitations in vaccinated cohorts). The acceptable harms-benefits ratio was defined as the number of women needed to refer (NNR) to prevent one CC death under the current programme for unvaccinated cohorts (82.17).

RESULTS

Under current vaccination conditions (bivalent vaccine, 55% coverage in girls, 27.5% coverage in boys), maintaining current screening conditions is projected to eliminate CC by 2042, but increases the present NNR with 41%. Reducing the number of lifetime screens from presently five to three and increasing screening coverage (61% to 70%) would prevent an increase in harms and only delay elimination by 1 year. Scaling vaccination coverage to 90% in boys and girls with the nonavalent vaccine is estimated to eliminate CC by 2040 under current screening conditions, but exceeds the acceptable NNR with 23%. Here, changing from five to two lifetime screens would keep the NNR acceptable without delaying CC elimination.

CONCLUSIONS

De-intensifying CC screening in vaccinated cohorts leads to little or no delay in CC elimination while it substantially reduces the harms of screening. Therefore, de-intensifying CC screening in vaccinated cohorts should be considered to ensure acceptable harms-benefits ratios on the road to CC elimination.

Shift in harms and benefits of cervical cancer screening in the era of HPV screening and vaccination: a modelling study

Objective

To calculate the changes in harms and benefits of cervical cancer screening over the first three screening rounds of the Dutch high‐risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) screening programme.

Design

Microsimulation study.

Setting

Dutch hrHPV screening programme; women are invited for screening every 5 or 10 years (depending on age and screening history) from age 30 to 65.

Population

Partly vaccinated population of 100 million Dutch women.

Methods

Microsimulation model MISCAN was used to estimate screening effects. Sensitivity analyses were performed on test characteristics and attendance.

Main outcome measures

Harms (screening tests, unnecessary referrals, treatment‐related health problems), benefits (CIN2⁺ diagnoses) and programme efficiency (number needed to screen [NNS]) over the first (period 2017–2021), second (period 2022–2026) and third (period 2027–2031) rounds of hrHPV‐based screening.

Results

The number of screening tests and CIN2⁺ diagnoses decreased from the first to the second round (−25.8% and −23.6%, respectively). In the third screening round, these numbers decreased further, albeit only slightly (−2.7% and −5.3%, respectively). NNS to detect a CIN2⁺ remained constant over the rounds; however, it increased in younger age groups while decreasing in older age groups.

Conclusion

Both harms and benefits of hrHPV screening decreased over the first screening rounds. For younger women, the efficiency would decrease, whereas longer screening intervals would lead to increased efficiency in older women. Programme efficiency overall remained stable, showing the importance of longer intervals for low‐risk women.

Tweetable abstract:

Cervical cancer screening: both harms and benefits of hrHPV screening will decrease in the future.

Cervical cancer screening: both harms and benefits of hrHPV screening will decrease in the future.

Easy access to vaccination was important for adherence during the 2016-2019 HPV catch-up vaccination in Norway

Between September and October 2019, the Norwegian Institute for Public Health (NIPH) surveyed women born between 1991 and 1996 who were offered catch-up vaccination for human papilloma virus (HPV). The aim was to identify determinants of vaccine schedule adherence. A random sample of 10,000 women who were offered catch-up vaccination were invited to participate in the survey. We defined adherence as receiving all three doses. Determinants of HPV vaccination adherence were investigated using descriptive, univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses providing adjusted odds ratios (aOR). Data from 3,762 respondents who received at least one dose were included. Overall, 92.1% (95% CI = 89.3-91.9) of those initiating vaccination adhered to the complete schedule. The following factors were significantly associated with HPV vaccination adherence compared to non-adherence: country of origin (aOR = 0.43; 95% CI = 0.47-0.97), having children (aOR = 0.51; 95% CI = 0.35-0.73), ease of finding out where to get vaccinated (aOR = 1.94; 95% CI = 1.69-2.23), preference for receiving information from health authorities (aOR = 1.37; 95% CI = 1.04-1.81) and vaccination being readily available (aOR = 2.28; 95% CI = 1.50-3.37). Information from NIPH via SMS and social media were negatively associated for Norwegians (aOR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.46-1.01) and positively associated for those whose country of origin was not Norway (aOR = 1.48, 95% CI = 0.69-3.14; not significant). Those who did not adhere to the full vaccination schedule reported that they had forgotten (40.4%; 95% CI = 33.5-47.8) or had no time (32.9%; 95% CI = 26.2-40.4). Despite NIPH's targeted communication campaign, the main barriers for HPV vaccination adherence were difficulty to find out where to get the vaccine, forgetting to take the vaccine or not having time to complete the schedule.

Impact of disruptions and recovery for established cervical screening programs across a range of high-income country program designs, using COVID-19 as an example: A modelled analysis

COVID-19 has disrupted cervical screening in several countries, due to a range of policy-, health-service and participant-related factors. Using three well-established models of cervical cancer natural history adapted to simulate screening across four countries, we compared the impact of a range of standardised screening disruption scenarios in four countries that vary in their cervical cancer prevention programs. All scenarios assumed a 6- or 12-month disruption followed by a rapid catch-up of missed screens. Cervical screening disruptions could increase cervical cancer cases by up to 5-6%. In all settings, more than 60% of the excess cancer burden due to disruptions are likely to have occurred in women aged less than 50 years in 2020, including settings where women in their 30s have previously been offered HPV vaccination. Approximately 15-30% of cancers predicted to result from disruptions could be prevented by maintaining colposcopy and precancer treatment services during any disruption period. Disruptions to primary screening had greater adverse effects in situations where women due to attend for screening in 2020 had cytology (vs. HPV) as their previous primary test. Rapid catch-up would dramatically increase demand for HPV tests in 2021, which it may not be feasible to meet because of competing demands on the testing machines and reagents due to COVID tests. These findings can inform future prioritisation strategies for catch-up that balance potential constraints on resourcing with clinical need.

Molecular markers for cervical cancer screening

INTRODUCTION

Cervical cancer remains a significant healthcare problem, notably in low- to middle-income countries. While a negative test for hrHPV has a predictive value of more than 99.5%, its positive predictive value is less than 10% for CIN2+ stages. This makes the use of a so-called triage test indispensable for population-based screening to avoid referring women, that are ultimately at low risk of developing cervical cancer, to a gynecologist. This review will give an overview of tests that are based on epigenetic marker panels and protein markers.

AREAS COVERED

There is a medical need for molecular markers with a better predictive value to discriminate hrHPV-positive women that are at risk of developing cervical cancer from those that are not. Areas covered are epigenetic and protein markers as well as health economic considerations in view of the fact that most cases of cervical cancer arise in low-to-middle-income countries.

EXPERT OPINION

While there are biomarker assays based on changes at the nucleic acid (DNA methylation patterns, miRNAs) and at the protein level, they are not widely used in population screening. Combining nucleic acid-based and protein-based tests could improve the overall specificity for discriminating CIN2+ lesions that carry a low risk of progressing to cervical cancer within the screening interval from those that carry an elevated risk. The challenge is to reduce unnecessary referrals without an undesired increase in false-negative diagnoses resulting in cases of cervical cancer that could have been prevented. A further challenge is to develop tests for low-and middle-income countries, which is critical to reduce the worldwide burden of cervical cancer.

Does Male Circumcision Reduce Women's Risk of Sexually Transmitted Infections, Cervical Cancer, and Associated Conditions?

Background: Male circumcision (MC) is proven to substantially reduce men's risk of a number of sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We conducted a detailed systematic review of the scientific literature to determine the relationship between MC and risk of STIs and associated conditions in women. Methods: Database searches by "circumcision women" and "circumcision female" identified 68 relevant articles for inclusion. Examination of bibliographies of these yielded 14 further publications. Each was rated for quality using a conventional rating system. Results: Evaluation of the data from the studies retrieved showed that MC is associated with a reduced risk in women of being infected by oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes and of contracting cervical cancer. Data from randomized controlled trials and other studies has confirmed that partner MC reduces women's risk not only of oncogenic HPV, but as well Trichomonas vaginalis, bacterial vaginosis and possibly genital ulcer disease. For herpes simplex virus type 2, Chlamydia trachomatis, Treponema pallidum, human immunodeficiency virus and candidiasis, the evidence is mixed. Male partner MC did not reduce risk of gonorrhea, Mycoplasma genitalium, dysuria or vaginal discharge in women. Conclusion: MC reduces risk of oncogenic HPV genotypes, cervical cancer, T. vaginalis, bacterial vaginosis and possibly genital ulcer disease in women. The reduction in risk of these STIs and cervical cancer adds to the data supporting global efforts to deploy MC as a health-promoting and life-saving public health measure and supplements other STI prevention strategies.