Investigating risk factors for under-five mortality in an HIV hyper-endemic area of rural South Africa, from 2000-2014

Geospatial correlations and variations in child mortality and stunting in South Africa: Evaluating distal vs structural determinants

South Africa has one of the highest child mortality and stunting rates in the world. Flexible geoadditive models were used to investigate the geospatial variations in child mortality and stunting in South Africa. We used consecutive rounds of national surveys (2008-2017). The child mortality declined from 31 % to 24 % over time. Lack of medical insurance, black ethnicity, low-socioeconomic conditions, and poor housing conditions were identified as the most significant correlates of child mortality. The model predicted degrees of freedom which was estimated as 19.55 (p < 0.001), provided compelling evidence for sub-geographical level variations in child mortality which ranged from 6 % to 35 % across the country. Population level impact of the distal characteristics on child mortality and stunting exceeded that of other risk factors. Geospatial analysis can help in monitoring trends in child mortality over time and in evaluating the impact of health interventions.

Correction: Investigating risk factors for under-five mortality in an HIV hyper-endemic area of rural South Africa, from 2000-2014

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0207294.].

Household structure, composition and child mortality in the unfolding antiretroviral therapy era in rural South Africa: comparative evidence from population surveillance, 2000-2015

OBJECTIVES

The structure and composition of the household has important influences on child mortality. However, little is known about these factors in HIV-endemic areas and how associations may change with the introduction and widespread availability of antiretroviral treatment (ART). We use comparative, longitudinal data from two demographic surveillance sites in rural South Africa (2000-2015) on mortality of children younger than 5 years (n=101 105).

DESIGN

We use multilevel discrete time event history analysis to estimate children's probability of dying by their matrilineal residential arrangements. We also test if associations have changed over time with ART availability.

SETTING

Rural South Africa.

PARTICIPANTS

Children younger than 5 years (n=101 105).

RESULTS

3603 children died between 2000 and 2015. Mortality risks differed by co-residence patterns along with different types of kin present in the household. Children in nuclear households with both parents had the lowest risk of dying compared with all other household types. Associations with kin and child mortality were moderated by parental status. Having older siblings lowered the probability of dying only for children in a household with both parents (relative risk ratio (RRR)=0.736, 95% CI (0.633 to 0.855)). Only in the later ART period was there evidence that older adult kin lowered the probability of dying for children in single parent households (RRR=0.753, 95% CI (0.664 to 0.853)).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide comparative evidence of how differential household profiles may place children at higher mortality risk. Formative research is needed to understand the role of other household kin in promoting child well-being, particularly in one-parent households that are increasingly prevalent.

The HIV paradox: Perinatal mortality is lower in HIV-positive mothers-A field case-control study in Ethiopia

OBJECTIVE

Sub-Saharan African countries have the highest perinatal mortality rates. Although HIV is a risk factor for perinatal death, antioretroviral therapy (ART) programs have been associated with better outcomes. We aimed to investigate how maternal HIV affects perinatal mortality.

METHODS

The authors performed a nested case-control study at Saint Luke Hospital, Wolisso, Ethiopia. Data on sociodemographic characteristics, current maternal conditions, obstetric history, and antenatal care (ANC) services utilization were collected. The association between perinatal mortality and HIV was assessed with logistic regression adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

A total of 3525 birthing women were enrolled, including 1175 cases and 2350 controls. Perinatal mortality was lower among HIV-positive women (18.3% vs. 33.6%, P = 0.007). Crude analysis showed a protective effect of HIV (odds ratio, 0.442 [95% confidence interval, 0.241-0.810]), which remained after adjustment (adjusted odds ratio, 0.483 [95% confidence interval, 0.246-0.947]). Among HIV-negative women, access to ANC for women from rural areas was almost half (18.8% vs. 36.2%; P < 0.001), whereas in HIV-positive women, no differences were noted (P = 0.795).

CONCLUSION

Among HIV-positive mothers, perinatal mortality was halved and differences in access to ANC services by area were eliminated. These data highlight the benefits of integrating ANC and HIV services in promoting access to the health care system, reducing inequalities and improving neonatal mortality.

Evolution of prevention of vertical HIV transmission in Uganda: 2008–2017

OBJECTIVES

Uganda adapted its policy for prevention of vertical transmission (VT) of HIV transmission as the World Health Organization released Options A, B and B+. We assessed trends in diagnostic testing, breastfeeding practices, maternal and infant antiretroviral therapy (ART), mortality, VT and HIV-free survival (HFS) among Ugandan infants born to women living with HIV during this period of successive guideline changes.

METHODS

This is is a retrospective observational study of infants attending early infant diagnosis clinics at two Ugandan hospitals.

RESULTS

A total of 1885 infants (48% female) were managed from 2009 to 2017. DNA polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for early infant diagnosis was performed on 1719 infants (92%, one or more PCR tests) and 676 infants (36%, two PCR tests). HIV serology was performed on 90 infants (4.8%). Testing increased over the study period but remained suboptimal, due to high loss to follow-up (LTFU). A total of 93% of infants were breastfed, for a median of 9.5 months. The duration of breast milk exposure increased over the study period, consistent with guidelines that increasingly encouraged breastfeeding. Nine cases (0.48%) of suspected breast milk transmission were observed. The use of ART increased significantly over the study period. Mortality (3.5%, 2.7% and 1.1%; p = 0.0076) and VT (17%, 12% and 7.4%; p < 0.0001) decreased over the study period (2008-2010, 2011-2012 and 2013-2017, respectively). LTFU values were 31%, 49% and 59% at 6, 12 and 18 months of age, respectively, with only modest improvements over time. HFS could only be conclusively documented in 532 infants (28%) because of LTFU.

CONCLUSIONS

From 2009 to 2017, outcomes improved among HIV-exposed infants in Uganda. LTFU remains a barrier to optimal care.

Socio-economic factors affecting high infant and child mortality rates in selected African countries: does globalisation play any role?

Background

Despite the declining trends worldwide, infant and child mortality rates are still high in many African countries. These high rates are problematic; therefore, this study attempts to explore the contributing factors that cause high infant and child mortality rates in 14 African countries using panel data for the period of 2000–2018. In particular, the role globalisation is explored.

Methods

The panel corrected standard error (PCSE), the Feasible generalized least square (FGLS) models, and the pair-wise Granger causality test have been applied as methodological approaches.

Results

The public health expenditure, numbers of physicians, globalization, economic development, education, good governance, and HIV prevalence rate have been revealed as the determinants of infant and child mortality in these countries. All these variables except the HIV prevalence rate negatively affect the infant and child mortality rates, while the HIV prevalence rate is found to be positive. Bidirectional and unidirectional causal relationships between the variables are also attained.

Conclusions

Effective socio-economic policy priority with due consideration of globalization should be emphasized to reduce infant and child mortality rates in these countries.

Incidence of Mortality among Under-Five-Year-Old Children Born to Women Living with HIV and Those Born to Women Not Living with HIV in Botswana: A 5-Year Retrospective Study

Background

Child mortality is a core indicator for child health and wellness. Botswana reported an under-five-year-old children (UFC) mortality rate of 48 deaths per 1000 live births in 2017 against 152 deaths per 1000 live births in 1971. This was a commendable accomplishment. However, given the current country situation whereby 23% of children are born to women living with HIV, the incidence of mortality among UFC born to women living with and not living with HIV and their survival are better health metrics to inform decision making. Nevertheless, such data are still very scarce in Botswana. The study's objective was to estimate the incidence of UFC mortality among children born to women living with and not living with HIV and to compare UFC survival between the two groups.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study of mortality among UFC was conducted in Botswana, including all UFC born between January 2014 and June 2018. Data were extracted from the National Under-Five Mortality Audit Committee (NUFMAC) database using a standardized data collection tool. The incidence rate of UFC death was estimated as a function of the duration from birth to death. Survival functions of UFC born to women living with and not living with HIV were plotted and compared using Kaplan–Meier survival analysis.

Results

The overall incidence of UFC death was 4.63/1000 child months (CM) (95% CI 4.36–4.90). The incidence of UFC death among children born to women living with HIV was 6.96/1000 CM (95% CI 6.47–7.45) and that of UFC born to women not living with HIV was 4.34/1000 CM (95% CI 4.03–4.65). The overall average and standard error (SE) time to event/death for UFC born to women living with and not living with HIV was 54.80 (0.18) months. The mean (SE) time to death for UFC born to women living with HIV was 52.79 (0.41) months and that of UFC born to women not living with HIV was 55.44 (0.19) months (log-rank X² = 37.59, p < 0.001). Prematurity or low birth weight was the leading cause of UFC death in both groups; but, it was higher in UFC born to women not living with HIV subgroup than their counterparts. Four cases only or 0.5% of the 806 death cases reported by reporting physicians were attributable to HIV-related complications.

Conclusion

Despite the commendable efforts made in reducing UFC death, the incidence of UFC death among UFC born to women living with HIV in Botswana is still higher, and their survival is shorter compared to UFC born to women not living with HIV. Child survival interventions should prioritize UFC born to women living with HIV to improve their survival.

Skewed logit model for analyzing correlated infant morbidity data

BACKGROUND

Infant morbidity is a topic of interest because it is used globally as an indicator of the status of health care in a country. A large body of evidence supports an association between bacterial vaginosis (BV) and infant morbidity. When estimating the relationship between the predictors and the estimated variable of morbidity severity, the latter exhibits imbalanced data, which means that violation of symmetry is expected. Two competing methods of analysis, that is, (1) probit and (2) logit techniques, can be considered in this context and have been applied to model such outcomes. However, these models may yield inconsistent results. While non-normal modeling approaches have been embraced in the recent past, the skewed logit model has been given little attention. In this study, we exemplify its usefulness in analyzing imbalanced longitudinal responses data.

METHODOLOGY

While numerous non-normal methods for modeling binomial responses are well established, there is a need for comparison studies to assess their usefulness in different scenarios, especially under a longitudinal setting. This is addressed in this study. We use a dataset from Kenya about infants born to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positive mothers, who are also screened for BV. We aimed to investigate the effect of BV on infant morbidity across time. We derived a score for morbidity incidences depending on illnesses reported during the month of reference. By adjusting for the mother's BV status, the child's HIV status, sex, feeding status, and weight for age, we estimated the standard binary logit and skewed logit models, both using Generalized Estimating Equations.

RESULTS

Results show that accounting for skewness in imbalanced binary data can show associations between variables in line with expectations documented by the literature. In addition, an in-depth analysis accounting for skewness has shown that, over time, maternal BV is associated with multiple health conditions in infants.

INTERPRETATION

Maternal BV status was positively associated with infant morbidity incidences, which highlights the need for early intervention in cases of HIV-infected pregnant women.

Linking the timing of a mother's and child's death: Comparative evidence from two rural South African population-based surveillance studies, 2000-2015

BACKGROUND

The effect of the period before a mother's death on child survival has been assessed in only a few studies. We conducted a comparative investigation of the effect of the timing of a mother's death on child survival up to age five years in rural South Africa.

METHODS

We used discrete time survival analysis on data from two HIV-endemic population surveillance sites (2000-2015) to estimate a child's risk of dying before and after their mother's death. We tested if this relationship varied between sites and by availability of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We assessed if related adults in the household altered the effect of a mother's death on child survival.

FINDINGS

3,618 children died from 2000-2015. The probability of a child dying began to increase in the 7-11 months prior to the mother's death and increased markedly in the 3 months before (2000-2003 relative risk = 22.2, 95% CI = 14.2-34.6) and 3 months following her death (2000-2003 RR = 20.1; CI = 10.3-39.4). This increased risk pattern was evident at both sites. The pattern attenuated with ART availability but remained even with availability at both sites. The father and maternal grandmother in the household lowered children's mortality risk independent of the association between timing of mother and child mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The persistence of elevated mortality risk both before and after the mother's death for children of different ages suggests that absence of maternal care and abrupt breastfeeding cessation might be crucial risk factors. Formative research is needed to understand the circumstances for children when a mother is very ill or dies, and behavioral and other risk factors that increase both the mother and child's risk of dying. Identifying families when a mother is very ill and implementing training and support strategies for other members of the household are urgently needed to reduce preventable child mortality.

Under-Five Mortality in Buea Health District, Southwest Cameroon: Evidence from a Community-Based Birth Cohort Study of Rate, Causes, and Age-Specific Patterns

Background

Updating the knowledge base on the causes and patterns of under-five mortality (U5M) is crucial for the design of suitable interventions to improve survival of children under five.

Objectives

To assess the rate, causes, and age-specific patterns of U5M in Buea Health District, Cameroon.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study involving 2000 randomly selected households was conducted. Live births registered between September 2004 and September 2009 were recorded. The under-five mortality rate (U5MR) was defined by the number of deaths that occurred on or before 5 years of age per 1000 live births. Causes of death were assigned using the InterVA-4 software.

Results

A total of 2210 live births were recorded. There were 92 deaths, and the U5MR was 42 per 1000 live births. The mean age at death was 11 ± 15.9 months. The most frequent causes of death were neonatal causes (37%), malaria (28%), and pneumonia (15%). Deaths during infancy accounted for 64.1% of U5M, with 43.5% neonatal (86% occurring within the first 24 hours of life) and 20.7% postneonatal. The main causes of death in infancy were birth asphyxia (37.5%), pneumonia (17.5%), complications of prematurity (10%), and malaria (10%). Child deaths accounted for 35.8% of U5M. Malaria, pneumonia, and diarrhoeal illnesses accounted for the majority of child deaths.

Conclusions

Almost half of U5M occurred during the neonatal period. Improvements in intrapartum care and the prevention and effective treatment of neonatal conditions, malaria, and pneumonia could considerably reduce U5M in Buea.

Dolutegravir versus efavirenz in women starting HIV therapy in late pregnancy (DolPHIN-2): an open-label, randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Late initiation of HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) in pregnancy is associated with not achieving viral suppression before giving birth and increased mother-to-child transmission of HIV. We aimed to investigate virological suppression before giving birth with dolutegravir compared with efavirenz, when initiated during the third trimester.

METHODS

In this randomised, open-label trial, DolPHIN-2, we recruited pregnant women in South Africa and Uganda aged at least 18 years, with untreated but confirmed HIV infection and an estimated gestation of at least 28 weeks, initiating ART in third trimester. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to dolutegravir-based or efavirenz-based therapy. HIV viral load was measured 7 days and 28 days after antiretroviral initiation, at 36 weeks' gestation, and at the post-partum visit (0-14 days post partum). The primary efficacy outcome was a viral load of less than 50 copies per mL at the first post-partum visit, and the primary safety outcome was the occurrence of drug-related adverse events in mothers and infants until the post-partum visit. Longer-term follow-up of mothers and infants continues. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03249181.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 23, and Aug 15, 2018, we randomly assigned 268 mothers to dolutegravir (135) or efavirenz (133). All mothers and their infants were included in the safety analysis, and 250 mothers (125 in the dolutegravir group, 125 in the efavirenz group) and their infants in efficacy analyses, by intention-to-treat analyses. The median duration of maternal therapy at birth was 55 days (IQR 33-77). 89 (74%) of 120 in the dolutegravir group had viral loads less than 50 copies per mL, compared with 50 (43%) of 117 in the efavirenz group (risk ratio 1·64, 95% CI 1·31-2·06). 30 (22%) of 137 mothers in the dolutegravir group reported serious adverse events compared with 14 (11%) of 131 in the efavirenz group (p=0·013), particularly surrounding pregnancy and puerperium. We found no differences in births less than 37 weeks and less than 34 weeks gestation (16·4% vs 3·3%, across both groups). Three stillbirths in the dolutegravir group and one in the efavirenz group were considered unrelated to treatment. Three infant HIV infections were detected, all in the dolutegravir group, and were considered likely to be in-utero transmissions.

INTERPRETATION

Our data support the revision to WHO guidelines recommending the transition to dolutegravir in first-line ART for all adults, regardless of pregnancy or child-bearing potential.

FUNDING

Unitaid.