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Vujcich D, Roberts M, Selway T, Nattabi B. The Application of Systems Thinking to the Prevention and Control of Sexually Transmissible Infections among Adolescents and Adults: A Scoping Review. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:ijerph20095708. [PMID: 37174226 PMCID: PMC10178699 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20095708] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2023] [Revised: 04/20/2023] [Accepted: 04/30/2023] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Systems thinking is a mechanism for making sense of complex systems that challenge linear explanations of cause-and-effect. While the prevention and control of sexually transmissible infections (STIs) has been identified as an area that may benefit from systems-level analyses, no review on the subject currently exists. The aim of this study is to conduct a scoping review to identify literature in which systems thinking has been applied to the prevention and control of STIs among adolescent and adult populations. Joanna Briggs Institute guidelines for the conduct of scoping reviews were followed. Five databases were searched for English-language studies published after 2011. A total of n = 6102 studies were screened against inclusion criteria and n = 70 were included in the review. The majority of studies (n = 34) were conducted in African nations. Few studies focused on priority sub-populations, and 93% were focused on HIV (n = 65). The most commonly applied systems thinking method was system dynamics modelling (n = 28). The review highlights areas for future research, including the need for more STI systems thinking studies focused on: (1) migrant and Indigenous populations; (2) conditions such as syphilis; and (3) innovations such as pre-exposure prophylaxis and at-home testing for HIV. The need for conceptual clarity around 'systems thinking' is also highlighted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Vujcich
- Western Australian Sexual Health and Blood-Borne Virus Applied Research and Evaluation Network, School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, WA 6102, Australia
| | - Meagan Roberts
- Western Australian Sexual Health and Blood-Borne Virus Applied Research and Evaluation Network, School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, WA 6102, Australia
| | - Tyler Selway
- Western Australian Sexual Health and Blood-Borne Virus Applied Research and Evaluation Network, School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, WA 6102, Australia
| | - Barbara Nattabi
- School of Population and Global Health, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6009, Australia
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Agent-based model projections for reducing HIV infection among MSM: Prevention and care pathways to end the HIV epidemic in Chicago, Illinois. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0274288. [PMID: 36251657 PMCID: PMC9576079 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0274288] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2022] [Accepted: 08/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Our objective is to improve local decision-making for strategies to end the HIV epidemic using the newly developed Levers of HIV agent-based model (ABM). Agent-based models use computer simulations that incorporate heterogeneity in individual behaviors and interactions, allow emergence of systemic behaviors, and extrapolate into the future. The Levers of HIV model (LHM) uses Chicago neighborhood demographics, data on sex-risk behaviors and sexual networks, and data on the prevention and care cascades, to model local dynamics. It models the impact of changes in local preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and antiretroviral treatment (ART) (ie, levers) for meeting Illinois' goal of "Getting to Zero" (GTZ) -reducing by 90% new HIV infections among men who have sex with men (MSM) by 2030. We simulate a 15-year period (2016-2030) for 2304 distinct scenarios based on 6 levers related to HIV treatment and prevention: (1) linkage to PrEP for those testing negative, (2) linkage to ART for those living with HIV, (3) adherence to PrEP, (4) viral suppression by means of ART, (5) PrEP retention, and (6) ART retention. Using tree-based methods, we identify the best scenarios at achieving a 90% HIV infection reduction by 2030. The optimal scenario consisted of the highest levels of ART retention and PrEP adherence, next to highest levels of PrEP retention, and moderate levels of PrEP linkage, achieved 90% reduction by 2030 in 58% of simulations. We used Bayesian posterior predictive distributions based on our simulated results to determine the likelihood of attaining 90% HIV infection reduction using the most recent Chicago Department of Public Health surveillance data and found that projections of the current rate of decline (2016-2019) would not achieve the 90% (p = 0.0006) reduction target for 2030. Our results suggest that increases are needed at all steps of the PrEP cascade, combined with increases in retention in HIV care, to approach 90% reduction in new HIV diagnoses by 2030. These findings show how simulation modeling with local data can guide policy makers to identify and invest in efficient care models to achieve long-term local goals of ending the HIV epidemic.
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Linton SL, Jarlais DCD, Ornstein JT, Kasman M, Hammond R, Kianian B, Smith JC, Wolfe ME, Ross Z, German D, Flynn C, Raymond HF, Klevens RM, Spencer E, Schacht JM, Finlayson T, Paz-Bailey G, Wejnert C, Cooper HLF. An application of agent-based modeling to explore the impact of decreasing incarceration rates and increasing drug treatment access on sero-discordant partnerships among people who inject drugs. THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DRUG POLICY 2021; 94:103194. [PMID: 33812133 PMCID: PMC8608566 DOI: 10.1016/j.drugpo.2021.103194] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2020] [Revised: 02/19/2021] [Accepted: 02/24/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND People who inject drugs (PWID) lag behind other key populations in HIV care continuum outcomes. The impacts of criminal justice reform and increasing drug treatment access on HIV have been underexplored. METHODS We developed agent-based models (ABM) of sexual partnerships among PWID and non-PWID, and injection equipment-sharing partnerships among PWID in five US cities (Baltimore, Boston, Miami, New York City, San Francisco) over 3 years. The first set of ABM projected changes in partnership discordance among PWID as a function of decreasing ZIP code-level incarceration rates. The second set projected discordance as a function of increasing ZIP code-level drug treatment access. ABM were parameterized and validated overall, and by city and PWID race/ethnicity (Black, Latino, White) using National HIV Behavioral Surveillance data, administrative ZIP code-level data, surveillance reports and prior literature. Informed by research on prisoner release and community-level HIV prevalence, reductions in incarceration rates were fixed at 5% and 30% and respectively projected to increase ZIP code-level HIV prevalence by 2% and 12%. Increases in drug treatment access were fixed at 30% and 58%. RESULTS In each city, a 30% reduction in ZIP code-level incarceration rates and 12% increase in ZIP code-level HIV prevalence significantly increased sero-discordance among at least one racial/ethnic group of PWID by 1-3 percentage points. A 5% reduction in incarceration rates, and 30% and 58% increases in drug treatment access, led to isolated significant changes in sero-discordance among Black and White PWID that were less than 1 percentage point. CONCLUSION Reductions in incarceration rates may lead to short-term increases in sero-discordant partnerships among some PWID by increasing community-level HIV prevalence. Efforts to increase HIV testing, engagement in care and community reintegration post release, should be strengthened in the wake of incarceration reform. Additional research should confirm these findings and explore the lack of widespread impacts of drug treatment in this study.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sabriya L Linton
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
| | - Don C Des Jarlais
- College of Global Public Health, New York University, New York City, NY, USA
| | - Joseph T Ornstein
- School of Public and International Affairs, The University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
| | - Matt Kasman
- Brookings Institution, District of Columbia, USA
| | - Ross Hammond
- Brookings Institution, District of Columbia, USA
| | - Behzad Kianian
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Justin C Smith
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Mary E Wolfe
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Zev Ross
- ZevRoss Spatial Analysis, Ithaca, NY, USA
| | - Danielle German
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Colin Flynn
- Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | | | | | - Emma Spencer
- Florida Department of Health, Tallahassee, FL, USA
| | | | | | | | - Cyprian Wejnert
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
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Adams JW, Khan MR, Bessey S, Friedman SR, McMahon JM, Lurie MN, Galea S, Marshall BD. Preexposure prophylaxis strategies for African-American women affected by mass incarceration. AIDS 2021; 35:453-462. [PMID: 33170818 PMCID: PMC7855567 DOI: 10.1097/qad.0000000000002749] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2020] [Revised: 09/14/2020] [Accepted: 10/12/2020] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE We aimed to determine the effectiveness of various preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) prescription strategies for African-American women impacted by mass incarceration within an urban setting. DESIGN An agent-based model was utilized to evaluate prevention strategies in an efficient, ethical manner. By defining agents, their characteristics and relationships, we assessed population-level effects of PrEP on HIV incidence. METHODS We tested hypothetical PrEP prescription strategies within a simulation representing the African-American population of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Four strategies were evaluated: PrEP for women meeting CDC indicators regarding partner characteristics, PrEP for women with a recently incarcerated male partner, PrEP for women with a recently released male partner and couples-based PrEP at time of release. Interventions occurred alongside scale-up of HAART. We evaluated reductions in HIV transmissions, the number of persons on PrEP needed to avert one HIV transmission (NNT) and the resulting proportions of people on PrEP. RESULTS Scenarios prescribing PrEP based on criminal justice system involvement reduced HIV transmissions. The NNT ranged from 147 (couples-based scenario) to 300 (recently released scenario). The percentage of the female population covered by PrEP at any one time ranged from 0.14% (couples-based) to 10.8% (CDC-based). CDC-guideline scenarios were consistently less efficient compared to the justice-involved interventions. CONCLUSION Expanding PrEP for African-American women and their male partners affected by incarceration should be considered in national HIV prevention goals and correctional facilities leveraged as intervention sites. Partner characteristics in the current CDC indications may be more effective and efficient if guidelines considered criminal justice involvement.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joëlla W. Adams
- Brown University School of Public Health, Providence, Rhode Island
| | - Maria R. Khan
- Division of Comparative Effectiveness and Decision Science, Department of Population Health, New York University
| | - S.E. Bessey
- Brown University School of Public Health, Providence, Rhode Island
| | | | | | - Mark N. Lurie
- Brown University School of Public Health, Providence, Rhode Island
| | - Sandro Galea
- Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
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