Towards a global understanding of the drivers of marine and terrestrial biodiversity

Assessing the global distribution and risk of harmful microalgae: A focus on three toxic Alexandrium dinoflagellates

Harmful dinoflagellates and their resulting blooms pose a threat to marine life and human health. However, to date, global maps of marine life often overlook harmful microorganisms. As harmful algal blooms (HABs) increase in frequency, severity, and extent, understanding the distribution of harmful dinoflagellates and their drivers is crucial for their management. We used MaxEnt, random forest, and ensemble models to map the habitats of the representative HABs species in the genus Alexandrium, including A. catenella, A. minutum, and A. pacificum. Since species occurrence records used in previous studies were solely morphology-based, potentially leading to misidentifications, we corrected these species' distribution records using molecular criteria. The results showed that the key environmental drivers included the distance to the coastline, bathymetry, sea surface temperature (SST), and dissolved oxygen. Alexandrium catenella thrives in temperate to cold zones and is driven by low SST and high oxygen levels. Alexandrium pacificum mainly inhabits the Temperate Northern Pacific and prefers warmer SST and lower oxygen levels. Alexandrium minutum thrives universally and adapts widely to SST and oxygen. By analyzing the habitat suitability of locations with recorded HAB occurrences, we found that high habitat suitability could serve as a reference indicator for bloom risk. Therefore, we have proposed a qualitative method to spatially assess the harmful algae risk according to the habitat suitability. On the global risk map, coastal temperate seas, such as the Mediterranean, Northwest Pacific, and Southern Australia, faced higher risks. Although HABs currently have restricted geographic distributions, our study found these harmful algae possess high environmental tolerance and can thrive across diverse habitats. HAB impacts could increase if climate changes or ocean conditions became more favorable. Marine transportation may also spread the harmful algae to new unaffected ecosystems. This study has pioneered the assessment of harmful algal risk based on habitat suitability.

Late Cretaceous ammonoids show that drivers of diversification are regionally heterogeneous

Palaeontologists have long sought to explain the diversification of individual clades to whole biotas at global scales. Advances in our understanding of the spatial distribution of the fossil record through geological time, however, has demonstrated that global trends in biodiversity were a mosaic of regionally heterogeneous diversification processes. Drivers of diversification must presumably have also displayed regional variation to produce the spatial disparities observed in past taxonomic richness. Here, we analyse the fossil record of ammonoids, pelagic shelled cephalopods, through the Late Cretaceous, characterised by some palaeontologists as an interval of biotic decline prior to their total extinction at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary. We regionally subdivide this record to eliminate the impacts of spatial sampling biases and infer regional origination and extinction rates corrected for temporal sampling biases using Bayesian methods. We then model these rates using biotic and abiotic drivers commonly inferred to influence diversification. Ammonoid diversification dynamics and responses to this common set of diversity drivers were regionally heterogeneous, do not support ecological decline, and demonstrate that their global diversification signal is influenced by spatial disparities in sampling effort. These results call into question the feasibility of seeking drivers of diversity at global scales in the fossil record.

Extreme and compound ocean events are key drivers of projected low pelagic fish biomass

Ocean extreme events, such as marine heatwaves, can have harmful impacts on marine ecosystems. Understanding the risks posed by such extreme events is key to develop strategies to predict and mitigate their effects. However, the underlying ocean conditions driving severe impacts on marine ecosystems are complex and often unknown as risks to marine ecosystems arise not only from hazards but also from the interactions between hazards, exposure and vulnerability. Marine ecosystems may not be impacted by extreme events in single drivers but rather by the compounding effects of moderate ocean anomalies. Here, we employ an ensemble climate-impact modeling approach that combines a global marine fish model with output from a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model, to identify the key ocean ecosystem drivers associated with the most severe impacts on the total biomass of 326 pelagic fish species. We show that low net primary productivity is the most influential driver of extremely low fish biomass over 68% of the ocean area considered by the model, especially in the subtropics and the mid-latitudes, followed by high temperature and low oxygen in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the high latitudes. Severe biomass loss is generally driven by extreme anomalies in at least one ocean ecosystem driver, except in the tropics, where a combination of moderate ocean anomalies is sufficient to drive extreme impacts. Single moderate anomalies never drive extremely low fish biomass. Compound events with either moderate or extreme ocean conditions are a necessary condition for extremely low fish biomass over 78% of the global ocean, and compound events with at least one extreme variable are a necessary condition over 61% of the global ocean. Overall, our model results highlight the crucial role of extreme and compound events in driving severe impacts on pelagic marine ecosystems.

The impact of the German timber footprint on potential species loss in supply regions

Previous own assessments have shown that a) Germany has a wood consumption above global average, b) is strongly dependent on imports and c) has a domestic roundwood production that is at the limit of the sustainable harvest potential. Thereby Germany further increases the pressures on global forests which are already stressed by climate-change related impacts and a continuously growing global demand for wood. This leads to negative impacts on the biodiversity in the areas where wood is harvested. This paper aims to show the connection between Germany's timber consumption footprint and the impact on the biodiversity in the regions where the roundwood is sourced. A two-step process is used. In the first step, high-resolution land cover and land use maps are used as a basis for the countryside species-area relationship model, assessing the projected loss of the four taxa amphibians, birds, mammals and reptiles in relation to undisturbed natural ecosystems due to forests occupied for roundwood production. In the second step, roundwood equivalents consumed in Germany in 2015 are traced back to the region of origin using an environmentally-extended input-output analysis and the thereby induced potential species loss is calculated. We show that the highest impact on projected species richness loss caused by roundwood logging is taking place in Oceania (3.34E-03 species/m3), Carribean (1.56E-04 species/m3), and East Asia (1.43E-04 species/m3). German roundwood consumption has the highest projected species loss in the United States (7.4 species), followed by China (7.3 species) and Brazil (4.8 species). From a biodiversity impact perspective, Germany could theoretically reduce its impact by relocating imports to European countries. In view of the planetary boundary of sustainable roundwood consumption, which has already been exceeded, reducing consumption appears to be the only viable long-term option for high-consumption countries such as Germany to reduce negative impacts on global biodiversity.

Forecasting distributional shifts of Patella spp. in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean, under climate change

Mapping species' geographical distribution is fundamental for understanding current patterns and forecasting future changes. Living on rocky shores along the intertidal zone, limpets are vulnerable to climate change, as their range limits are controlled by seawater temperature. Many works have been studying limpets' potential responses to climate change at local and regional scales. Focusing on four Patella species living on the rocky shores of the Portuguese continental coast, this study aims to predict climate change impacts on their global distribution, while exploring the role of the Portuguese intertidal as potential climate refugia. Ecological niche models combine occurrences and environmental data to identify the drivers of these species' distributions, define their current range, and project to future climate scenarios. The distribution of these limpets was mostly defined by low bathymetry (intertidal) and the seawater temperature. Independent of the climate scenario, all species will gain suitable conditions at the northern distribution edge while losing in the south, yet only the extent of occurrence of P. rustica is expected to contract. Apart from the southern coast, maintenance of suitable conditions for these limpets' occurrence was predicted for the western coast of Portugal. The predicted northward range shift follows the observed pattern observed for many intertidal species. Given the ecosystem role of this species, attention should be given to their southern range limits. Under the current upwelling effect, the Portuguese western coast might constitute thermal refugia for limpets in the future.

Discovering marine biodiversity in the 21st century

We review the current knowledge of the biodiversity of the ocean as well as the levels of decline and threat for species and habitats. The lack of understanding of the distribution of life in the ocean is identified as a significant barrier to restoring its biodiversity and health. We explore why the science of taxonomy has failed to deliver knowledge of what species are present in the ocean, how they are distributed and how they are responding to global and regional to local anthropogenic pressures. This failure prevents nations from meeting their international commitments to conserve marine biodiversity with the results that investment in taxonomy has declined in many countries. We explore a range of new technologies and approaches for discovery of marine species and their detection and monitoring. These include: imaging methods, molecular approaches, active and passive acoustics, the use of interconnected databases and citizen science. Whilst no one method is suitable for discovering or detecting all groups of organisms many are complementary and have been combined to give a more complete picture of biodiversity in marine ecosystems. We conclude that integrated approaches represent the best way forwards for accelerating species discovery, description and biodiversity assessment. Examples of integrated taxonomic approaches are identified from terrestrial ecosystems. Such integrated taxonomic approaches require the adoption of cybertaxonomy approaches and will be boosted by new autonomous sampling platforms and development of machine-speed exchange of digital information between databases.

Biogeography of terrestrial vertebrates and its conservation implications in a transitional region in western Mexico

Conservation biogeography, which applies principles, theories, and analyses of biodiversity distribution patterns to address conservation challenges, can provide valuable insight and guidance to policy making for protection of biodiversity at multiple scales. The temperate and tropical ecosystems of the Nearctic-Neotropical transition in the small western state of Colima, Mexico, support a mosaic of remarkably diverse fauna and flora and provide a rare opportunity to determine spatial distribution patterns of terrestrial vertebrate species, assess human-induced threats, and identify potential conservation strategies. We analyzed the spatial distribution patterns and correlated them with the current land cover and extent of the protected areas. Despite its limited geographic extension, 29% (866) of all vertebrates, and almost a quarter of both endemic and threatened species in Mexico, live in Colima. Our analysis identified clear high-richness concentration sites (i.e., “hotspots”) coincident for all groups and that elevation and both temperate and tropical ecosystems composition exert significant influence on richness patterns. Furthermore, current species´ distribution also showed significant correlation with natural and disturbed landcover. Significant hotspots for all species groups coincided poorly with the limited protected areas in the state (only 3.8%). The current state of natural land cover (less than 16%) in the state, coupled with its remarkable biological importance, highlights the need for further complementary conservation efforts including expansion and creation of new protected areas, significant restoration efforts and other conservation measures to maintain this uniquely biogeographic and biological diverse region of the country.

Impacts on food web properties of island invertebrate communities vary between different human land uses

Human land use is of growing concern for island ecosystems. Besides direct impacts on biodiversity, land uses can alter the functioning and structure of ecosystems. Central to this are impacts on food webs. The release of additional nutrients from human origin, habitat homogenization, or environmental filtering due to human land use can change the diet of individual consumer species (i.e., their trophic niches) and the distribution and overlap of trophic niches within a food web. However, it remains largely unclear whether the effects on food web properties vary between the different and predominant human land uses present on islands. Here, we investigated the impact of two dominant human land uses on small oceanic islands (i.e., urban and tourism development) and tested if and how different land uses on islands affect food web structure. To disentangle human land uses, we investigated islands, which were either privately owned by a tourist facility (i.e., exclusively tourism land use) or experienced urban development from the local population (i.e., urban land use), or remained uninhabited, serving as reference sites free of direct land use. Using stable isotope analysis, we show that isotope signature, trophic (isotopic) niches, and overall food web properties of the investigated island invertebrate communities were significantly changed under both land use regimes. While trophic diversity was reduced and trophic niche widths increased under tourism land use, the investigated food webs showed reduced trophic diversity at the food web base and a more uneven trophic niche distribution under urban land use. In summary, these findings show that different human land uses can have contrasting impacts on oceanic island food webs. As oceanic islands experience rapidly growing human land conversion, our results indicate that they may also face increasing yet unpredictable long-term changes in food web dynamics.

Integrating laboratory experiments and biogeographic modelling approaches to understand sensitivity to ocean warming in rare and common marine annelids

Among ectotherms, rare species are expected to have a narrower thermal niche breadth and reduced acclimation capacity and thus be more vulnerable to global warming than their common relatives. To assess these hypotheses, we experimentally quantified the thermal sensitivity of seven common, uncommon, and rare species of temperate marine annelids of the genus Ophryotrocha to assess their vulnerability to ocean warming. We measured the upper and lower limits of physiological thermal tolerance, survival, and reproductive performance of each species along a temperature gradient (18, 24, and 30 °C). We then combined this information to produce curves of each species' fundamental thermal niche by including trait plasticity. Each thermal curve was then expressed as a habitat suitability index (HSI) and projected for the Mediterranean Sea and temperate Atlantic Ocean under a present day (1970-2000), mid- (2050-2059) and late- (2090-2099) 21st Century scenario for two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Rare and uncommon species showed a reduced upper thermal tolerance compared to common species, and the niche breadth and acclimation capacity were comparable among groups. The simulations predicted an overall increase in the HSI for all species and identified potential hotspots of HSI decline for uncommon and rare species along the warm boundaries of their potential distribution, though they failed to project the higher sensitivity of these species into a greater vulnerability to ocean warming. In the discussion, we provide some caveats on the implications of our results for conservation efforts.

Integration of VIIRS Observations with GEDI-Lidar Measurements to Monitor Forest Structure Dynamics from 2013 to 2020 across the Conterminous United States

Consistent and spatially explicit periodic monitoring of forest structure is essential for estimating forest-related carbon emissions, analyzing forest degradation, and supporting sustainable forest management policies. To date, few products are available that allow for continental to global operational monitoring of changes in canopy structure. In this study, we explored the synergy between the NASA’s spaceborne Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) waveform LiDAR and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data to produce spatially explicit and consistent annual maps of canopy height (CH), percent canopy cover (PCC), plant area index (PAI), and foliage height diversity (FHD) across the conterminous United States (CONUS) at a 1-km resolution for 2013–2020. The accuracies of the annual maps were assessed using forest structure attribute derived from airborne laser scanning (ALS) data acquired between 2013 and 2020 for the 48 National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) field sites distributed across the CONUS. The root mean square error (RMSE) values of the annual canopy height maps as compared with the ALS reference data varied from a minimum of 3.31-m for 2020 to a maximum of 4.19-m for 2017. Similarly, the RMSE values for PCC ranged between 8% (2020) and 11% (all other years). Qualitative evaluations of the annual maps using time series of very high-resolution images further suggested that the VIIRS-derived products could capture both large and “more” subtle changes in forest structure associated with partial harvesting, wind damage, wildfires, and other environmental stresses. The methods developed in this study are expected to enable multi-decadal analysis of forest structure and its dynamics using consistent satellite observations from moderate resolution sensors such as VIIRS onboard JPSS satellites.

Marine diversity patterns in Australia are filtered through biogeography

Latitudinal diversity gradients are among the most striking patterns in nature. Despite a large body of work investigating both geographic and environmental drivers, biogeographical provinces have not been included in statistical models of diversity patterns. Instead, spatial studies tend to focus on species-area and local-regional relationships. Here, we investigate correlates of a latitudinal diversity pattern in Australian coastal molluscs. We use an online database of greater than 300 000 specimens and quantify diversity using four methods to account for sampling variation. Additionally, we present a biogeographic scheme using factor analysis that allows for both gradients and sharp boundaries between clusters. The factors are defined on the basis of species composition and are independent of diversity. Regardless of the measure used, diversity is not directly explained by combinations of abiotic variables. Instead, transitions between regions better explain the observed patterns. Biogeographic gradients can in turn be explained by environmental variables, suggesting that environmental controls on diversity may be indirect. Faunas within provinces are homogeneous regardless of environmental variability. Thus, transitions between provinces explain most of the variation in diversity because small-scale factors are dampened. This explanation contrasts with the species-energy hypothesis. Future work should more carefully consider biogeographic gradients when investigating diversity patterns.

Effects of ignoring survey design information for data reuse

Data are currently being used, and reused, in ecological research at an unprecedented rate. To ensure appropriate reuse however, we need to ask the question: "Are aggregated databases currently providing the right information to enable effective and unbiased reuse?" We investigate this question, with a focus on designs that purposefully favor the selection of sampling locations (upweighting the probability of selection of some locations). These designs are common and examples are those designs that have uneven inclusion probabilities or are stratified. We perform a simulation experiment by creating data sets with progressively more uneven inclusion probabilities and examine the resulting estimates of the average number of individuals per unit area (density). The effect of ignoring the survey design can be profound, with biases of up to 250% in density estimates when naive analytical methods are used. This density estimation bias is not reduced by adding more data. Fortunately, the estimation bias can be mitigated by using an appropriate estimator or an appropriate model that incorporates the design information. These are only available however, when essential information about the survey design is available: the sample location selection process (e.g., inclusion probabilities), and/or covariates used in their specification. The results suggest that such information must be stored and served with the data to support meaningful inference and data reuse.

The geographic disparity of historical greenhouse emissions and projected climate change

One challenge in climate change communication is that the causes and impacts of global warming are unrelated at local spatial scales. Using high-resolution datasets of historical anthropogenic greenhouse emissions and an ensemble of 21st century surface temperature projections, we developed a spatially explicit index of local climate disparity. This index identifies positive (low emissions, large temperature shifts) and negative disparity regions (high emissions, small temperature shifts), with global coverage. Across all climate change projections we analyzed, 99% of the earth's surface area has a positive index value. This result underscores that while emissions are geographically concentrated, warming is globally widespread. From our index, the regions of the greatest positive disparity appear concentrated in the polar arctic, Central Asia, and Africa with negative disparity regions in western Europe, Southeast Asia, and eastern North America. Straightforward illustrations of this complex relationship may inform on equity, enhance public understanding, and increase collective global action.

Enabling conditions for an equitable and sustainable blue economy

The future of the global ocean economy is currently envisioned as advancing towards a 'blue economy'-socially equitable, environmentally sustainable and economically viable ocean industries^1,2. However, tensions exist within sustainable development approaches, arising from differing perspectives framed around natural capital or social equity. Here we show that there are stark differences in outlook on the capacity for establishing a blue economy, and on its potential outcomes, when social conditions and governance capacity-not just resource availability-are considered, and we highlight limits to establishing multiple overlapping industries. This is reflected by an analysis using a fuzzy logic model to integrate indicators from multiple disciplines and to evaluate their current capacity to contribute to establishing equitable, sustainable and viable ocean sectors consistent with a blue economy approach. We find that the key differences in the capacity of regions to achieve a blue economy are not due to available natural resources, but include factors such as national stability, corruption and infrastructure, which can be improved through targeted investments and cross-scale cooperation. Knowledge gaps can be addressed by integrating historical natural and social science information on the drivers and outcomes of resource use and management, thus identifying equitable pathways to establishing or transforming ocean sectors^1,3,4. Our results suggest that policymakers must engage researchers and stakeholders to promote evidence-based, collaborative planning that ensures that sectors are chosen carefully, that local benefits are prioritized, and that the blue economy delivers on its social, environmental and economic goals.

Coastal sharks supply the global shark fin trade

Progress in global shark conservation has been limited by constraints to understanding the species composition and geographic origins of the shark fin trade. Previous assessments that relied on earlier genetic techniques and official trade records focused on abundant pelagic species traded between Europe and Asia. Here, we combine recent advances in DNA barcoding and species distribution modelling to identify the species and source the geographic origin of fins sold at market. Derived models of species environmental niches indicated that shark fishing effort is concentrated within Exclusive Economic Zones, mostly in coastal Australia, Indonesia, the United States, Brazil, Mexico and Japan. By coupling two distinct tools, barcoding and niche modelling, our results provide new insights for monitoring and enforcement. They suggest stronger local controls of coastal fishing may help regulate the unsustainable global trade in shark fins.

Spatially congruent sites of importance for global shark and ray biodiversity

Many important areas identified for conservation priorities focus on areas of high species richness, however, it is unclear whether these areas change depending on what aspect of richness is considered (e.g. evolutionary distinctiveness, endemicity, or threatened species). Furthermore, little is known of the extent of spatial congruency between biodiversity measures in the marine realm. Here, we used the distribution maps of all known marine sharks, rays, and chimaeras (class Chondrichthyes) to examine the extent of spatial congruency across the hotspots of three measures of species richness: total number of species, evolutionarily distinct species, and endemic species. We assessed the spatial congruency between hotspots considering all species, as well as on the subset of the threatened species only. We consider three definitions of hotspot (2.5%, 5%, and 10% of cells with the highest numbers of species) and three levels of spatial resolution (1°, 4°, and 8° grid cells). Overall, we found low congruency among all three measures of species richness, with the threatened species comprising a smaller subset of the overall species patterns irrespective of hotspot definition. Areas of congruency at 1° and 5% richest cells contain over half (64%) of all sharks and rays and occurred off the coasts of: (1) Northern Mexico Gulf of California, (2) USA Gulf of Mexico, (3) Ecuador, (4) Uruguay and southern Brazil, (5) South Africa, southern Mozambique, and southern Namibia, (6) Japan, Taiwan, and parts of southern China, and (7) eastern and western Australia. Coarsening resolution increases congruency two-fold for all species but remains relatively low for threatened measures, and geographic locations of congruent areas also change. Finally, for pairwise comparisons of biodiversity measures, evolutionarily distinct species richness had the highest overlap with total species richness regardless of resolution or definition of hotspot. We suggest that focusing conservation attention solely on areas of high total species richness will not necessarily contribute efforts towards species that are most at risk, nor will it protect other important dimensions of species richness.

Zooplankton biogeographic boundaries in the California Current System as determined from metabarcoding

Within the southern California Current ecosystem there are two well-documented breaks in marine community structure at Point Conception and Punta Eugenia. We explored the presence of similar breaks in a diverse zooplankton community through metabarcoding of mixed net tow tissue samples collected during an expedition from Monterey to Baja California in February of 2012. We recovered a high diversity of species as well as patterns of species presence that align with their previously documented ranges in this region. We found a clear break at Punta Eugenia in overall zooplankton community structure, while Point Conception was weakly linked to changes in community structure. We analyzed this dataset through two parallel bioinformatic pipelines to examine the robustness of these results. Our overall conclusions were consistent across both pipelines, however there were differences in species detection. This study illustrates the utility of metabarcoding analysis on mixed tissue samples for recovering known patterns of diversity, as well as allowing elucidation of broad patterns of community differentiation across many groups of organisms.