Modeling drug-resistant tuberculosis amplification rates and intervention strategies in Bangladesh

The impact of triple doses vaccination and other interventions for controlling the outbreak of COVID-19 cases and mortality in Australia: A modelling study

COVID-19 is a significant public health problem around the globe, including in Australia. Despite this, Australia's Ministry of Health has expanded COVID-19 control measures widely, logistical trials exist, and the disease burden still needs more clarity. One of the best methods to comprehend the dynamics of disease transmission is by mathematical modeling of COVID-19, which also makes it possible to quantify factors in many places, including Australia. In order to understand the dynamics of COVID-19 in Australia, we examine a mathematical modeling framework for the virus in this study. Australian COVID-19 actual incidence data from January to December 2021 was used to calibrate the model. We also performed a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters and found that the COVID-19 transmission rate was the primary factor in determining the basic reproduction number (R0). Gradually influential intervention policies were established, with accurate effect and coverage regulated with the help of COVID-19 experts in Australia. We simulated data for the period from April 2022 to August 2023. To ascertain which of these outcomes is most effective in lowering the COVID-19 burden, we here assessed the COVID-19 burden (as shown by the number of incident cases and mortality) under a range of intervention scenarios. Regarding the policy of single intervention, the fastest and most efficient way to lower the incidence of COVID-19 is via increasing the first-dose immunization rate, while an improved treatment rate for the afflicted population is also helps to lower mortality in Australia. Furthermore, our results imply that integrating more therapies at the same time increases their efficacy, particularly for mortality, which significantly reduced with a moderate effort, while lowering the number of COVID-19 instances necessitates a major and ongoing commitment.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 intervention policies using a mathematical model: an optimal control approach

COVID-19 is an infectious disease that causes millions of deaths worldwide, and it is the principal leading cause of morbidity and mortality in all nations. Although the governments of developed and developing countries are enforcing their universal control strategies, more precise and cost-effective single or combination interventions are required to control COVID-19 outbreaks. Using proper optimal control strategies with appropriate cost-effectiveness analysis is important to simulate, examine, and forecast the COVID-19 transmission phase. In this study, we developed a COVID-19 mathematical model and considered two important features including direct link between vaccination and latently population, and practical healthcare cost by separation of infections into Mild and Critical cases. We derived basic reproduction numbers and performed mesh and contour plots to explore the impact of different parameters on COVID-19 dynamics. Our model fitted and calibrated with number of cases of the COVID-19 data in Bangladesh as a case study to determine the optimal combinations of interventions for particular scenarios. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of varying single and combinations of three intervention strategies, including transmission control, treatment, and vaccination, all within the optimal control framework of the single-intervention policies; enhanced transmission control is the most cost-effective and prompt in declining the COVID-19 cases in Bangladesh. Our finding recommends that a three-intervention strategy that integrates transmission control, treatment, and vaccination is the most cost-effective compared to single and double intervention techniques and potentially reduce the overall infections. Other policies can be implemented to control COVID-19 depending on the accessibility of funds and policymakers' judgments.

Analysis of the different interventions scenario for programmatic measles control in Bangladesh: A modelling study

In recent years measles has been one of the most critical public health problem in Bangladesh. Although the Ministry of Health in Bangladesh employs a broad extension of measles control policies, logistical challenges exist, and there is significant doubt regarding the disease burden. Mathematical modelling of measles is considered one of the most effective ways to understand infection transmission and estimate parameters in different countries, such as Bangladesh. In this study, a mathematical modelling framework is presented to explore the dynamics of measles in Bangladesh. We calibrated the model using cumulative measles incidence data from 2000 to 2019. Also, we performed a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters and found that the contact rate had the most significant influence on the basic reproduction number R0. Four hypothetical intervention scenarios were developed and simulated for the period from 2020 to 2035. The results show that the scenario which combines enhanced treatment for exposed and infected population, first and second doses of vaccine is the most effective at rapidly reducing the total number of measles incidence and mortality in Bangladesh. Our findings also suggest that strategies that focus on a single interventions do not dramatically affect the decline in measles incidence cases; instead, those that combine two or more interventions simultaneously are the most effective in decreasing the burden of measles incidence and mortality. In addition, we also evaluated the cost-effectiveness of varying combinations of three basic control strategies including distancing, vaccination and treatment, all within the optimal control framework. Our finding suggested that combines distancing, vaccination and treatment control strategy is the most cost-effective for reducing the burden of measles in Bangladesh. Other strategies can be comprised to measles depending on the availability of funds and policymakers' choices.

Modelling COVID-19 pandemic control strategies in metropolitan and rural health districts in New South Wales, Australia

COVID-19 remains a significant public health problem in New South Wales, Australia. Although the NSW government is employing various control policies, more specific and compelling interventions are needed to control the spread of COVID-19. This paper presents a modified SEIR-X model based on a nonlinear ordinary differential equations system that considers the transmission routes from asymptomatic (Exposed) and symptomatic (Mild and Critical) individuals. The model is fitted to the corresponding cumulative number of cases in metropolitan and rural health districts of NSW reported by the Health Department and parameterised using the least-squares method. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text], which measures the possible spread of COVID-19 in a population, is computed using the next generation operator method. Sensitivity analysis of the model parameters reveals that the transmission rate had an enormous influence on [Formula: see text], which may be an option for controlling this disease. Two time-dependent control strategies, namely preventive (it refers to effort at inhibiting the virus transmission and prevention of case development from Exposed, Mild, Critical, Non-hospitalised and Hospitalised population) and management (it refers to enhance the management of Non-hospitalised and Hospitalised individuals who are infected by COVID-19) measures, are considered to mitigate this disease's dynamics using Pontryagin's maximum principle. The most sensible control strategy is determined through the cost-effectiveness analysis for the metropolitan and rural health districts of NSW. Our findings suggest that of the single intervention strategies, enhanced preventive strategy is more cost-effective than management control strategy, as it promptly reduces COVID-19 cases in NSW. In addition, combining preventive and management interventions simultaneously is found to be the most cost-effective. Alternative policies can be implemented to control COVID-19 depending on the policymakers' decisions. Numerical simulations of the overall system are performed to demonstrate the theoretical outcomes.

Mathematical analysis of a two-strain tuberculosis model in Bangladesh

Tuberculosis (TB) is an airborne infectious disease that causes millions of deaths worldwide each year (1.2 million people died in 2019). Alarmingly, several strains of the causative agent, Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB)—including drug-susceptible (DS) and drug-resistant (DR) variants—already circulate throughout most developing and developed countries, particularly in Bangladesh, with totally drug-resistant strains starting to emerge. In this study we develop a two-strain DS and DR TB transmission model and perform an analysis of the system properties and solutions. Both analytical and numerical results show that the prevalence of drug-resistant infection increases with an increasing drug use through amplification. Both analytic results and numerical simulations suggest that if the basic reproduction numbers of both DS (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{R}}_{{0{\text{s}}}}$$\end{document}R0s) and DR (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{R}}_{{0{\text{r}}}}$$\end{document}R0r) TB are less than one, i.e. \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\max \left[ {{\text{R}}_{{0{\text{s}}}} ,{\text{ R}}_{{0{\text{r}}}} } \right] < 1,$$\end{document}maxR0s,R0r<1, the disease-free equilibrium is asymptotically stable, meaning that the disease naturally dies out. Furthermore, if \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{R}}_{{0{\text{r}}}} > {\text{max}}\left[ {{\text{R}}_{{0{\text{s}}}} ,1} \right]$$\end{document}R0r>maxR0s,1, then DS TB dies out but DR TB persists in the population, and if \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{R}}_{{0{\text{s}}}} > {\text{max}}\left[ {{\text{R}}_{{0{\text{r}}}} ,1} \right]$$\end{document}R0s>maxR0r,1 both DS TB and DR TB persist in the population. Further, sensitivity analysis of the model parameters found that the transmission rate of both strains had the greatest influence on DS and DR TB prevalence. We also investigated the effect of treatment rates and amplification on both DS and DR TB prevalence; results indicate that inadequate or inappropriate treatment makes co-existence more likely and increases the relative abundance of DR TB infections.

A Review of COVID-19 Modelling Strategies in Three Countries to Develop a Research Framework for Regional Areas

At the end of December 2019, an outbreak of COVID-19 occurred in Wuhan city, China. Modelling plays a crucial role in developing a strategy to prevent a disease outbreak from spreading around the globe. Models have contributed to the perspicacity of epidemiological variations between and within nations and the planning of desired control strategies. In this paper, a literature review was conducted to summarise knowledge about COVID-19 disease modelling in three countries-China, the UK and Australia-to develop a robust research framework for the regional areas that are urban and rural health districts of New South Wales, Australia. In different aspects of modelling, summarising disease and intervention strategies can help policymakers control the outbreak of COVID-19 and may motivate modelling disease-related research at a finer level of regional geospatial scales in the future.

Mathematical analysis of a measles transmission dynamics model in Bangladesh with double dose vaccination

Although the availability of the measles vaccine, it is still epidemic in many countries globally, including Bangladesh. Eradication of measles needs to keep the basic reproduction number less than one \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$(\mathrm{i}.\mathrm{e}. \, \, {\mathrm{R}}_{0}<1)$$\end{document}(i.e.R0<1). This paper investigates a modified (SVEIR) measles compartmental model with double dose vaccination in Bangladesh to simulate the measles prevalence. We perform a dynamical analysis of the resulting system and find that the model contains two equilibrium points: a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium. The disease will be died out if the basic reproduction number is less than one \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$(\mathrm{i}.\mathrm{e}. \, \, {\mathrm{ R}}_{0}<1)$$\end{document}(i.e.R0<1), and if greater than one \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$(\mathrm{i}.\mathrm{e}. \, \, {\mathrm{R}}_{0}>1)$$\end{document}(i.e.R0>1) epidemic occurs. While using the Routh-Hurwitz criteria, the equilibria are found to be locally asymptotically stable under the former condition on \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\mathrm{R}}_{0}$$\end{document}R0. The partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs), a global sensitivity analysis method is used to compute \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\mathrm{R}}_{0}$$\end{document}R0 and measles prevalence \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\left({\mathrm{I}}^{*}\right)$$\end{document}I∗ with respect to the estimated and fitted model parameters. We found that the transmission rate \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$(\upbeta )$$\end{document}(β) had the most significant influence on measles prevalence. Numerical simulations were carried out to commissions our analytical outcomes. These findings show that how progression rate, transmission rate and double dose vaccination rate affect the dynamics of measles prevalence. The information that we generate from this study may help government and public health professionals in making strategies to deal with the omissions of a measles outbreak and thus control and prevent an epidemic in Bangladesh.

Scenario analysis for programmatic tuberculosis control in Bangladesh: a mathematical modelling study

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health problem in Bangladesh. Although the National TB control program of Bangladesh is implementing a comprehensive expansion of TB control strategies, logistical challenges exist, and there is significant uncertainty concerning the disease burden. Mathematical modelling of TB is considered one of the most effective ways to understand the dynamics of infection transmission and allows quantification of parameters in different settings, including Bangladesh. In this study, we present a two-strain mathematical modelling framework to explore the dynamics of drug-susceptible (DS) and multidrug-resistant (MDR) TB in Bangladesh. We calibrated the model using DS and MDR-TB annual incidence data from Bangladesh from years 2001 to 2015. Further, we performed a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters and found that the contact rate of both strains had the largest influence on the basic reproduction numbers [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] of DS and MDR-TB, respectively. Increasingly powerful intervention strategies were developed, with realistic impact and coverage determined with the help of local staff. We simulated for the period from 2020 to 2035. Here, we projected the DS and MDR-TB burden (as measured by the number of incident cases and mortality) under a range of intervention scenarios to determine which of these scenario is the most effective at reducing burden. Of the single-intervention strategies, enhanced case detection is the most effective and prompt in reducing DS and MDR-TB incidence and mortality in Bangladesh and that with GeneXpert testing was also highly effective in decreasing the burden of MDR-TB. Our findings also suggest combining additional interventions simultaneously leads to greater effectiveness, particularly for MDR-TB, which we estimate requires a modest investment to substantially reduce, whereas DS-TB requires a strong sustained investment.

Tuberculosis in an Immunocompetent Immigrant Patient

Peritoneal tuberculosis (TB) is a rare medical condition in developed nations like the United States, and it is uncommon to observe this condition in patients without underlying immunosuppression. This report describes a patient who developed abdominal pain, constipation, and ascites. And later on, he was diagnosed with peritoneal TB following laparoscopy with peritoneal biopsy. The patient was an immigrant from a high TB burden country but had no other common risk factors for the development of peritoneal TB. Treatment with anti-TB therapy resulted in significant clinical improvement.