A new trajectory approach for investigating the association between an environmental or occupational exposure over lifetime and the risk of chronic disease: Application to smoking, asbestos, and lung cancer

Trajectories of long-term exposure to PCB153 and Benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) air pollution and risk of breast cancer

BACKGROUND

While genetic, hormonal, and lifestyle factors partially elucidate the incidence of breast cancer, emerging research has underscored the potential contribution of air pollution. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) are of particular concern due to endocrine-disrupting properties and their carcinogenetic effect.

OBJECTIVE

To identify distinct long term trajectories of exposure to PCB153 and BaP, and estimate their associations with breast cancer risk.

METHODS

We used data from the XENAIR case-control study, nested within the ongoing prospective French E3N cohort which enrolled 98,995 women aged 40-65 years in 1990-1991. Cases were incident cases of primary invasive breast cancer diagnosed from cohort entry to 2011. Controls were randomly selected by incidence density sampling, and individually matched to cases on delay since cohort entry, and date, age, department of residence, and menopausal status at cohort entry. Annual mean outdoor PCB153 and BaP concentrations at residential addresses from 1990 to 2011 were estimated using the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model. Latent class mixed models were used to identify profiles of exposure trajectories from cohort entry to the index date, and conditional logistic regression to estimate their association with the odds of breast cancer.

RESULTS

5058 cases and 5059 controls contributed to the analysis. Five profiles of trajectories of PCB153 exposure were identified. The class with the highest PCB153 concentrations had a 69% increased odds of breast cancer compared to the class with the lowest concentrations (95% CI 1.08, 2.64), after adjustment for education and matching factors. The association between identified BaP trajectories and breast cancer was weaker and suffered from large CI.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support an association between long term exposure to PCB153 and the risk of breast cancer, and encourage further studies to account for lifetime exposure to persistent organic pollutants.

Estimating effects of longitudinal and cumulative exposure to PFAS mixtures on early adolescent body composition

Few methods have been used to characterize repeatedly measured biomarkers of chemical mixtures. We applied latent profile analysis (LPA) to serum concentrations of 4 perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) measured at 4 time points from gestation to age 12 years. We evaluated the relationships between profiles and z scores of height, body mass index, fat mass index, and lean body mass index at age 12 years (n = 218). We compared LPA findings with an alternative approach for cumulative PFAS mixtures using g-computation to estimate the effect of simultaneously increasing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for all PFAS. We identified 2 profiles: a higher PFAS profile (35% of sample) and a lower PFAS profile (relative to each other), based on their average PFAS concentrations at all time points. The higher PFAS profile had generally lower z scores for all outcomes, with somewhat larger effects for males, though all 95% CIs crossed the null. For example, the higher PFAS profile was associated with a 0.50-unit lower (β = -0.50; 95% CI, -1.07 to 0.08) BMI z score among males but not among females (β = 0.04; 95% CI, -0.45 to 0.54). We observed similar patterns with AUCs. We found that a higher childhood PFAS profile and higher cumulative PFAS mixtures may be associated with altered growth in early adolescence. This article is part of a Special Collection on Environmental Epidemiology.

Joint Effects of Indoor Air Pollution and Maternal Psychosocial Factors During Pregnancy on Trajectories of Early Childhood Psychopathology

Background

Prenatal indoor air pollution and maternal psychosocial factors have been associated with adverse psychopathology. We used environmental exposure mixture methodology to investigate joint effects of both exposure classes on child behavior trajectories.

Methods

For 360 children from the South African Drakenstein Child Health Study, we created trajectories of Child Behavior Checklist scores (24, 42, 60 months) using latent class linear mixed effects models. Indoor air pollutants and psychosocial factors were measured during pregnancy (2 nd trimester). After adjusting for confounding, single-exposure effects (per natural log-1 unit increase) were assessed using polytomous logistic regression models; joint effects using self-organizing maps (SOM), and principal component (PC) analysis.

Results

High externalizing trajectory was associated with increased particulate matter (PM 10 ) exposure (OR [95%-CI]: 1.25 [1.01,1.55]) and SOM exposure profile most associated with smoking (2.67 [1.14,6.27]). Medium internalizing trajectory was associated with increased emotional intimate partner violence (2.66 [1.17,5.57]), increasing trajectory with increased benzene (1.24 [1.02,1.51]) and toluene (1.21 [1.02,1.44]) and the PC most correlated with benzene and toluene (1.25 [1.02, 1.54]).

Conclusions

Prenatal exposure to environmental pollutants and psychosocial factors was associated with internalizing and externalizing child behavior trajectories. Understanding joint effects of adverse exposure mixtures will facilitate targeted interventions to prevent childhood psychopathology.

Race, Toxic Exposures, and Environmental Health: The Contestation of Lupus among Farmworkers

Extant research has established that low-wage workers of color are at higher risk for occupational exposures. While the medical sociology literature regarding contested illness provides insights into the dynamics surrounding workplace exposures, some environmental illnesses such as lupus have gotten scant analytical attention. This is a significant gap because women of color, who are more likely to hold these high-risk jobs, are disproportionately affected by the disease. We examine a case of pesticide exposure among Black women farmworkers in Florida. We investigate how race and occupation intersect to shape lived experiences with toxics and what role race plays in the process of contesting exposures and illness. Our data include in-depth interviews (N = 36), media coverage, and archival materials. Our findings indicate that race-related factors played an important part in shaping the farmworkers' experiences with exposures, illness, and interaction with elite actors.

Lifetime Sunburn Trajectories and Associated Risks of Cutaneous Melanoma and Squamous Cell Carcinoma Among a Cohort of Norwegian Women

Importance

To our knowledge, no study has prospectively investigated sunburn patterns over age periods from childhood to adulthood and their associations with skin cancer risk.

Objective

To identify lifetime trajectories of sunburns and compare the association between these trajectories and subsequent risk of cutaneous melanoma and squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC).

Design, Setting, and Participants

This population-based cohort study included participants from the Norwegian Women and Cancer Study, established in 1991, with follow-up through 2018. Baseline questionnaires were issued from 1991 to 2007, with follow-up questionnaires every 5 to 7 years. Data analysis was performed from March 16, 2021, to December 4, 2021.

Exposures

Participants reported pigmentation factors, sunbathing vacations, and indoor tanning. Annual frequencies of sunburns were reported for childhood, adolescence, and adulthood.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Information on cancer diagnoses, emigration, and death were obtained through linkage to the Cancer Registry of Norway using the unique personal identification number of Norwegian citizens.

Results

Of the 172 472 women (age range, 31-70 years) who returned questionnaires, 169 768 received questions about sunburns at study inclusion. Five classes (stable low, low-moderate-low, low to high, high to low, and stable high) of individual lifetime sunburn trajectories with similar shapes were estimated in 3 samples up to 39 years (n = 159 773), up to 49 years (n = 153 297), and up to 59 years (n = 119 170). Mean follow-up ranged from 14.3 to 19.5 years in the 3 samples, during which 1252 to 1774 women were diagnosed with incident primary melanoma and 739 to 871 women with incident primary cSCC. With hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs estimated using a Cox proportional hazards model, the stable high and high to low trajectories showed statistically significant increased melanoma and cSCC risks compared with the stable low trajectory across all samples (≤39 years for stable high and high to low trajectories: melanoma: HR, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.28-1.75] and HR, 1.44 [95% CI, 1.20-1.73]; cSCC: HR, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.22-1.87] and HR, 1.47 [95% CI, 1.14-1.91]). Other trajectories showed increased risk, though generally weaker and mainly estimates that were not statistically significant. There was no statistically significant heterogeneity between melanoma and cSCC estimates.

Conclusion and Relevance

This cohort study showed that high sunburn frequency throughout life was associated with increased melanoma and cSCC risk. Furthermore, sunburns in childhood are especially important for subsequent risk of these skin cancers. Avoiding sunburns throughout life, in particular in childhood, is therefore crucial.

Potential role of melatonin in prevention and treatment of lung cancer

Lung cancer is the second most common cancer and the most lethal cancer worldwide. Melatonin, an indoleamine produced in the pineal gland, shows anticancer effects on a variety of cancers, especially lung cancer. Herein, we clarify the pathophysiology of lung cancer, the association of circadian rhythm with lung, and the relationship between shift work and the incidence of lung cancer. Special focus is placed on the role of melatonin receptors in lung cancer, the relationship between inflammation and lung cancer, control of cell proliferation, apoptosis, autophagy, and immunomodulation in lung cancer by melatonin. A review of the drug synergy of melatonin with other anticancer drugs suggests its usefulness in combination therapy. In summary, the information compiled may serve as a comprehensive reference for the various mechanisms of action of melatonin against lung cancer, as a guide for the design of future experimental research and for advancing melatonin as a therapeutic agent for lung cancer.

Epidemiological trends and incidence prediction of lung cancer in China based on the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

Lung cancer remains the most common malignancy in China. This study aims to provide scientific support for the prevention and treatment of lung cancer by analyzing the epidemiological trends of lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2019. Based on the global health exchange database (GHDx), joinpoint and age-period-cohort analyses were performed to explore the trend of lung cancer incidence and mortality rates from 1990 to 2019. According to incidence rates from 1990 to 2019, a model was constructed to predict the incidence rates in the next 5 years. In addition, changes in risk factors associated with lung cancer deaths were compared between 1990 and 2019 and between males and females in 2019. The results are as follows. The age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), and age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) of lung cancer among Chinese had overall upward trends from 1990 to 2019. The ASDRs of females and males in China decreased since 2010. Interestingly, from 2016 to 2019, the ASIRs and ASDRs of females rose significantly. The age-period-cohort model showed that the incidence and mortality rates of lung cancer in China increased with age, and the growth rate accelerated after 45 years old. After 2004, the relative risks of lung cancer incidence increased with the passage of the period. Also, after the 1950-1954 birth cohort, the risks of lung cancer incidence and death began to decrease. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model predicted that the incidence rates of lung cancer in China would continue to rise in the next 5 years. The top five risk factors for lung cancer deaths of both genders in 2019 were smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, secondhand smoke, high fasting plasma glucose, and household air pollution from solid fuels. The above results provided precise clues for the prevention and treatment of lung cancer in China.

Using linear and natural cubic splines, SITAR, and latent trajectory models to characterise nonlinear longitudinal growth trajectories in cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Longitudinal data analysis can improve our understanding of the influences on health trajectories across the life-course. There are a variety of statistical models which can be used, and their fitting and interpretation can be complex, particularly where there is a nonlinear trajectory. Our aim was to provide an accessible guide along with applied examples to using four sophisticated modelling procedures for describing nonlinear growth trajectories.

METHODS

This expository paper provides an illustrative guide to summarising nonlinear growth trajectories for repeatedly measured continuous outcomes using (i) linear spline and (ii) natural cubic spline linear mixed-effects (LME) models, (iii) Super Imposition by Translation and Rotation (SITAR) nonlinear mixed effects models, and (iv) latent trajectory models. The underlying model for each approach, their similarities and differences, and their advantages and disadvantages are described. Their application and correct interpretation of their results is illustrated by analysing repeated bone mass measures to characterise bone growth patterns and their sex differences in three cohort studies from the UK, USA, and Canada comprising 8500 individuals and 37,000 measurements from ages 5-40 years. Recommendations for choosing a modelling approach are provided along with a discussion and signposting on further modelling extensions for analysing trajectory exposures and outcomes, and multiple cohorts.

RESULTS

Linear and natural cubic spline LME models and SITAR provided similar summary of the mean bone growth trajectory and growth velocity, and the sex differences in growth patterns. Growth velocity (in grams/year) peaked during adolescence, and peaked earlier in females than males e.g., mean age at peak bone mineral content accrual from multicohort SITAR models was 12.2 years in females and 13.9 years in males. Latent trajectory models (with trajectory shapes estimated using a natural cubic spline) identified up to four subgroups of individuals with distinct trajectories throughout adolescence.

CONCLUSIONS

LME models with linear and natural cubic splines, SITAR, and latent trajectory models are useful for describing nonlinear growth trajectories, and these methods can be adapted for other complex traits. Choice of method depends on the research aims, complexity of the trajectory, and available data. Scripts and synthetic datasets are provided for readers to replicate trajectory modelling and visualisation using the R statistical computing software.