Will China's fertilizer use continue to decline? Evidence from LMDI analysis based on crops, regions and fertilizer types

Nutrient changes in the Bohai Sea over the past two decades

With the growing problem of eutrophication in the Bohai Sea, actions have been taken to reduce nutrient inputs, but it remains to be seen whether nutrient levels and structure have been ameliorated. In this study, the nutrient trends in the Bohai Sea are re-examined based on observations from 2000 to 2019. The results suggest that dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) concentrations and DIN/DIP (dissolved inorganic phosphate) ratios gradually increased from 2000 to 2013 but dramatically decreased from 2013 to 2019. The increase and decrease rates of DIN concentrations decreased with increasing water depth, indicating that DIN concentrations in nearshore waters responded more rapidly to changes in human activities. However, DIP concentrations responded weakly to nutrient inputs, with their trends uncoupled. The DIN/DIP ratios have declined close to and in some seasons even below the canonical Redfield ratio in areas with water depths >20 m recently, implying that relative nutrient limitation in these areas may be shifting from relative phosphorus (P) limitation to absence of relative nutrient limitation or relative nitrogen (N) limitation. Atmospheric deposition, wastewater discharge, and riverine input were responsible for 66 %, 21 %, and 13 % of the variance in the decline of DIN concentration, respectively. Several environmental indicators responded positively to the decrease in DIN concentrations and DIN/DIP ratios, with varying degrees of recovery recently. Our study proves the phased success of various nutrient reduction measures taken by the Chinese government to improve the environment of the Bohai Sea over the past decade.

The Effect of Technical Training Provided by Agricultural Cooperatives on Farmers' Adoption of Organic Fertilizers in China: Based on the Mediation Role of Ability and Perception

Organic fertilizers can be crucial in promoting sustainable agricultural development, but they are not used in a wide-ranging way among smallholder farmers in many developing countries. In China, cooperatives are considered essential subjects of agricultural technical training, but it is more common to join cooperatives without participating in their technical training. Thus, joining cooperatives or not cannot simply be used to assess the role of cooperatives in influencing the farmers' production behavior. Based on survey data of 1160 citrus farmers in Sichuan Province, China, this study estimated the effect of the technical training provided by agricultural cooperatives on farmers' adoption of organic fertilizers, taking into account the farmers' ability and perception as the mediation variables. The findings showed that participating in the technical training provided by agricultural cooperatives could significantly enhance the likelihood that farmers will adopt organic fertilizers. The impact was 81.6% in influencing the farmer's abilities and 7.64% in their perceptions of organic fertilizers. Furthermore, other variables, such as farm sizes, land transfers, and education levels, also make a difference in the effectiveness of the agricultural cooperatives' technical training. This study provides support for developing pertinent policies to promote the complete adoption of agricultural cooperatives' technical training functions and the widespread use of organic fertilizers.

Optimizing plant density and balancing NPK inputs in combination with innovative fertilizer product for sustainable maize production in North China Plain

Excessive NPK inputs but low grain yield and high environmental impact are common issues in maize production in North China Plain (NCP). The objective of our study was to test whether a combined strategy of optimizing plant density, balancing NPK input, and innovating one-time fertilizer products could achieve a more sustainable maize production in NCP. Thus, a field experiment was conducted at Luanna County NCP with the treatments of unfertilized control (CK), farmer practice (FP, conventional plant density and NPK input), conventional one-time urea-based coated fertilizer (CF, optimized plant density and NPK input), and five newly designed innovative one-time NPK fertilizers of ammonium sulphate and urea synergy (IF, optimized plant density and NPK input), innovative fertilizer with various additives of urea inhibitors (IF + UI), double inhibitors (IF + DI), micro-organisms (IF + MI), and trace elements (IF + TE). The grain yield, N sustainability indicators (N use efficiency NUE, partial factor productivity of N PFPN, and N surplus), and cost-benefits analysis were examined over the maize growing season of 2020. Results had shown that on average the five innovative fertilizers (IF, IF + UI, IF + DI, IF + MI, and IF + TE) and CF that had optimized plant density and NPK input achieved 13.5%, 98.6%, 105.9%, 37.4% higher yield, PFPN, NUE, net-benefits as well as 207.1% lower N surplus compared with FP respectively. Notably, the innovative fertilizer with various effective additives (IF + UI, IF + DI, IF + MI, and IF + TE) which can be commonly found in the fertilizer market hadn’t resulted in a significant improvement in yield and NUE rather a greater cost and lower net benefits in comparison to IF. In summary, our study highlighted the effectiveness of the combined strategy of optimized plant density, balancing NPK input, and innovative NPK fertiliser on sustainable maize production in NCP, however, the innovative fertilisers with effective additives should be properly selected for better economic benefits.

An evolving marine environment and its driving forces of algal blooms in the Southern Yellow Sea of China

Continuing global warming and intensification of human activities have substantially disturbed the balance of coastal marine ecosystems, potentially creating favorable conditions for algal blooms. Using serial remote sensing data and various national and provincial statistics, we investigated the spatial and temporal variations of the environmental driving forces for algal blooms in the Southern Yellow Sea between 2003 and 2017. The findings suggest that (1) Continual warming was observed in the Southern Yellow Sea. The study area evidenced more than three times the warming speed (0.41 °C/decade) of the global oceans (0.12 °C/decade) during the same period. There was an apparent warming zone in the region where macroalgal blooms tended to spread, with a heating of 1.0-1.5 °C (May-June). (2) Nutrient loadings have diverse patterns, characterized by fast-growing aquaculture activities and declining nutrients from land-based agriculture fertilizers and sewage discharge (based on published national and provincial statistics). (3) Growing expansion of algal blooms in the Southern Yellow Sea was confirmed by the relative increases in average May-June chlorophyll-a concentration of 46.7% and floating biomass area from 3.3% in 2003 to 13.4% in 2017. (4) While spatial correlation analysis showed a positive influence of the ocean surface temperature on chlorophyll-a, their relatively moderate (r = 0.40, p < 0.15) and declining correlations suggest that nutrient enrichment could be comparatively more influential on macroalgal blooms. Nutrient loading from the discharge of wastewater sourced from coastal aquaculture and organic residuals from land-sourcing sewage and industrial pollution, even though declining as reported, is still upholding a high level of nutrient enrichment in the study area. In addition, the fixed facilities for seaweed mariculture in the region provide vast breeding surfaces for algae. Consequently, the Southern Yellow Sea has become an ideal marine area for algal blooms.

Phosphorus status and adsorption characteristics of perennial vegetable-cultivated soils in South China

Phosphorus (P) is an essential element for crop production and a key source of nonpoint pollution in agroecosystems. In this study, we sought to analyze P levels and the factors affecting soil P availability, via P adsorption, in a typical field system that is characterized by the year-round cultivation of vegetables. A total of 190 sites were sampled from vegetable fields in Guangdong Province, South China. Within the research area, average concentrations of 124.49 mg P kg-1 and 1.55 g P kg-1 were recorded for available P (AP) and total P (TP), respectively, which are 8.53- and 1.78-fold higher, respectively, than the corresponding values recorded in 1980. The determined P adsorption maximum (Qm) averaged at 488.38 mg kg-1, which represents a reduction of 16% compared to the values obtained four decades ago. Accumulations of both TP and AP were found to be negatively correlated with the soil’s maximum adsorption buffering capacity (MBC), although no significant correlations with the soil binding energies (k) and Qm, were seen. However, soil pH was found to be significantly correlated with k and Qm. Furthermore, both free Mn oxides (Mnd) and silt concentrations in the soil were found to contribute to explaining the variations in Qm. Collectively, the findings of this study provide evidence to indicate that there has been an excessive accumulation of P in the perennial vegetable fields of Guangdong Province over the past four decades, which may have had negative effects on the P supply potential of the soil by reducing the maximum adsorption buffering capacity.

The greenhouse gas footprints of China's food production and consumption (1987-2017)

As China urbanized and its economy grew rapidly, its food production and consumption patterns changed dramatically over the past three decades. With this in mind, we evaluate how the nation's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to food production and consumption altered from 1987 to 2017. We further explore key factors that affect GHG emission changes from agricultural production and household diet perspectives. We find that the GHG emissions from China's food production rose 51 percent, while that from food consumption rose 64 percent. The rise in GHG footprint of China's food production was largely caused by the increasing material- and energy-intensive food production system. Agricultural modernization was a main cause of the rise in GHGs, as China was late to the game in improving agricultural productivity. But a more meat-intensive diet accompanied by a general rise in households' use of processed food also helped to drive these transformations. China's growing appetite for meat not only intensified GHG mitigation pressures domestically, but also abroad, as Chinese households began to demand greater variety that was satisfied via imports. Indeed, GHG emissions embodied in imported meats rose over eleven-fold from 2007 to 2017. Through this study, we highlight the importance of future policy-making focused on a more sustainable food system in China to benefit the world's environment, health, and climate.

Effect of agricultural subsidies on the use of chemical fertilizer

Agricultural subsidies lead to changes in the use of chemical fertilizer by farmers. Using data from a household survey conducted annually by the Rural Economy Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture of China from 2014 to 2018, Control Function (CF) approach and Heteroskedasticity-based identification strategy were employed to analyze the impact of agricultural subsidies on chemical fertilizer use by rice farmers. After addressing the problem of endogeneity, we found that agricultural subsidies have a significantly negative impact on the use of chemical fertilizer. Precisely, every 100% increase in agricultural subsidies would result in an average decrease of 3.4% in chemical fertilizer use. In addition, results of heterogeneity analysis showed that agricultural subsidies had a stronger negative impact on fertilizer use as rice-planting experience increases. But the ability of rice-planting management and off-farm labor within household could reduce this negative impact. We also found that the effect of arable land productivity conservation subsidies policy was short-lived. Furthermore, based on the frame of structural equation model (SEM), the results of mediation analysis showed that agricultural machine and rice-planting area had partial mediation of 5.3% and 41%, respectively. It implied that agricultural subsidies reduced fertilizer use by promoting the adoption of agricultural techniques and expanding the planting area. In brief, agricultural subsidies had both technical effect and scale effect. But the mediating effect of household income was not significant. This study is intended to assist the concerned authority and agriculture sector to understand the positive role of agricultural subsidies in sustainable production, and provides some feasible policy proposals.

Evaluating the effectiveness of soil conservation at the basin scale using floodplain sedimentary archives

Evaluation of the spatial and temporal composition of floodplain sediments and soils is critical in the creation of soil management strategies for impacted riverine catchments. The objective of this study was to determine the distribution, and to identify the sources, of particulate trace elements and fallout radionuclides in the catchment of the River Avon (SW England), where sedimentary processes had been altered by reservoir construction in the 1950s. The catchment was compartmentalized into its main functional units namely, cultivated land, pasture, woodland, wet moorland, and channel bank. Surface soils were collected in each unit, along with four strategically-placed cores, all of which were analyzed for particle size, fallout radionuclides and elemental concentrations. Sediment particle sizes and sediment accumulation rates were affected by the construction of the reservoir, specifically the distributions of silt and clay. The concentrations of fertilizer constituent Cr and P were highly correlated in the mid-catchment but were unrelated downstream due to elevated concentrations of Cr from geological deposits. Copper, As, Pb and Sn had variable down-core distributions, with pulses in concentrations due to mining inputs. The contributions of the end-member sources of particulate elements in the sedimentary mixtures were evaluated, quantitatively, using a Bayesian Mixing Model and the cultivated land was identified as a significant contributor to the mixtures, independent of space and time. The results contribute to advances in soil quality and conservation measures as components of a catchment management plan for the Avon, an approach maybe applicable to other small catchments in the UK and internationally.

A transition management framework to stimulate a circular phosphorus system

As the global population is projected to increase by two billion people by 2050, so will the demand for phosphorus (P), an essential nutrient for all living organisms and a major driver of eutrophication. To sustainably meet these challenges, we apply the conceptual framework of transition management (TM) to demonstrate how the trajectory of the current linear P use system could be strategically shifted toward a more circular P system. We present US case studies to examine P transitions management in intensive agriculture, wastewater disposal, and food waste management. Our goal is twofold. By first understanding past transitions in P management in the USA, we can build upon these insights for future management. This can then be applied to other global regions such as developing countries to bypass stages of transition as they intensify agriculture, incorporate sewers into cities, and expand waste management, to avoid becoming entrenched in unsustainable P management. We suggest how spaces for experimentation and collaboration can be created, how and which actor networks can be mobilized, and what action strategies and policies can be recommended to accelerate their transition to P sustainability. Our case studies show that while substantial improvements have been made, the transition toward a circular economy of P is far from complete. Our findings point to the value of utilizing TM for future progress in the US Development of TM frameworks for managing P in other regions of the world may enable them to achieve sustainable P development faster and more effectively than the USA.

Fertilizers and nitrate pollution of surface and ground water: an increasingly pervasive global problem

Nitrate pollution of ground and surface water bodies all over the world is generally linked with continually increasing global fertilizer nitrogen (N) use. But after 1990, with more fertilizer N consumption in developing countries especially in East and South Asia than in the industrialized nations in North America and Europe, nitrate pollution of freshwaters is now increasingly becoming a pervasive global problem. In this review it has been attempted to review the research information generated during the last two decades from all over the world on different aspects of nitrate pollution of natural water bodies. It is now evident that not more than 50% of the fertilizer N is directly used by the crops to which it is applied. While a small portion may directly leach down and may reach ground and surface water bodies, a large proportion ends up in the soil organic N pool from where N is mineralized and is taken up by plants and/or lost via leaching during several decades. Present trends of nitrate pollution of freshwaters, therefore, reflect legacies of current and past applications of fertilizers and manures. Tools such as simulation models and the natural variation in the stable isotopes of N and oxygen are now being extensively used to study the contribution of fertilizers and other sources to nitrate enrichment of freshwaters. Impacts of agricultural stewardship measures are being assessed and nitrate enrichment of water bodies is being managed using modern digital models and frameworks. Improved water and fertilizer management in agroecosystems can reduce the contribution of fertilizers to nitrate pollution of water bodies but a host of factors determine the magnitude. Future research needs are also considered.