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Ruggeri K, Stock F, Haslam SA, Capraro V, Boggio P, Ellemers N, Cichocka A, Douglas KM, Rand DG, van der Linden S, Cikara M, Finkel EJ, Druckman JN, Wohl MJA, Petty RE, Tucker JA, Shariff A, Gelfand M, Packer D, Jetten J, Van Lange PAM, Pennycook G, Peters E, Baicker K, Crum A, Weeden KA, Napper L, Tabri N, Zaki J, Skitka L, Kitayama S, Mobbs D, Sunstein CR, Ashcroft-Jones S, Todsen AL, Hajian A, Verra S, Buehler V, Friedemann M, Hecht M, Mobarak RS, Karakasheva R, Tünte MR, Yeung SK, Rosenbaum RS, Lep Ž, Yamada Y, Hudson SKTJ, Macchia L, Soboleva I, Dimant E, Geiger SJ, Jarke H, Wingen T, Berkessel JB, Mareva S, McGill L, Papa F, Većkalov B, Afif Z, Buabang EK, Landman M, Tavera F, Andrews JL, Bursalıoğlu A, Zupan Z, Wagner L, Navajas J, Vranka M, Kasdan D, Chen P, Hudson KR, Novak LM, Teas P, Rachev NR, Galizzi MM, Milkman KL, Petrović M, Van Bavel JJ, Willer R. A synthesis of evidence for policy from behavioural science during COVID-19. Nature 2024; 625:134-147. [PMID: 38093007 PMCID: PMC10764287 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06840-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2022] [Accepted: 11/06/2023] [Indexed: 12/22/2023]
Abstract
Scientific evidence regularly guides policy decisions1, with behavioural science increasingly part of this process2. In April 2020, an influential paper3 proposed 19 policy recommendations ('claims') detailing how evidence from behavioural science could contribute to efforts to reduce impacts and end the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we assess 747 pandemic-related research articles that empirically investigated those claims. We report the scale of evidence and whether evidence supports them to indicate applicability for policymaking. Two independent teams, involving 72 reviewers, found evidence for 18 of 19 claims, with both teams finding evidence supporting 16 (89%) of those 18 claims. The strongest evidence supported claims that anticipated culture, polarization and misinformation would be associated with policy effectiveness. Claims suggesting trusted leaders and positive social norms increased adherence to behavioural interventions also had strong empirical support, as did appealing to social consensus or bipartisan agreement. Targeted language in messaging yielded mixed effects and there were no effects for highlighting individual benefits or protecting others. No available evidence existed to assess any distinct differences in effects between using the terms 'physical distancing' and 'social distancing'. Analysis of 463 papers containing data showed generally large samples; 418 involved human participants with a mean of 16,848 (median of 1,699). That statistical power underscored improved suitability of behavioural science research for informing policy decisions. Furthermore, by implementing a standardized approach to evidence selection and synthesis, we amplify broader implications for advancing scientific evidence in policy formulation and prioritization.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kai Ruggeri
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York City, NY, USA.
- Policy Research Group, Centre for Business Research, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
- 274th ASOS, US Air Force/New York Air National Guard, Syracuse, NY, United States.
| | - Friederike Stock
- Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany
- Department of Psychology, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | | | | | - Paulo Boggio
- Mackenzie Presbyterian University, São Paulo, Brazil
- National Institute of Science and Technology on Social and Affective Neuroscience, CNPq, São Paulo, Brazil
| | | | | | | | - David G Rand
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | | | | | - Eli J Finkel
- Department of Psychology, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA
- Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA
| | | | - Michael J A Wohl
- Department of Psychology, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Richard E Petty
- Department of Psychology, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - Joshua A Tucker
- Department of Politics & Center for Social Media and Politics, New York University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Azim Shariff
- Department of Psychology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | | | | | - Jolanda Jetten
- University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Paul A M Van Lange
- Institute for Brain and Behavior Amsterdam, Department of Experimental and Applied Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
- Global Faculty, Social and Economic Behavior, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
| | | | - Ellen Peters
- Center for Science Communication Research, School of Journalism and Communication, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, USA
- Psychology Department, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, USA
| | | | - Alia Crum
- Department of Psychology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | | | | | - Nassim Tabri
- Department of Psychology, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Linda Skitka
- University of Illinois Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
| | | | - Dean Mobbs
- Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
- Computation and Neural Systems Program, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | | | - Sarah Ashcroft-Jones
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York City, NY, USA
- Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Anna Louise Todsen
- Department of Social Policy and Evaluation, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | | | | | | | - Marlene Hecht
- Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany
- Department of Psychology, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Rayyan S Mobarak
- Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | | | - Markus R Tünte
- Department of Developmental and Educational Psychology, Faculty of Psychology, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Siu Kit Yeung
- Department of Psychology, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - R Shayna Rosenbaum
- Department of Psychology, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Rotman Research Institute, Baycrest Academy for Research and Education, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Žan Lep
- Department of Psychology, Faculty of Arts, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia
- Centre for Applied Epistemology, Educational Research Institute, Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | - Yuki Yamada
- Faculty of Arts and Science, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
| | | | | | | | - Eugen Dimant
- Center for Social Norms and Behavioral Dynamics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA
- CESifo, Munich, Germany
| | - Sandra J Geiger
- Environmental Psychology, Department of Cognition, Emotion, and Methods in Psychology, Faculty of Psychology, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Hannes Jarke
- Policy Research Group, Centre for Business Research, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Tobias Wingen
- University of Bonn, University Hospital Bonn, Institute of General Practice and Family Medicine, Bonn, Germany
| | - Jana B Berkessel
- Mannheim Centre for European Social Research, University of Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Silvana Mareva
- MRC Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- Psychology Department, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Lucy McGill
- University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
- University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands
| | - Francesca Papa
- Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris, France
| | | | | | - Eike K Buabang
- Trinity College Institute of Neuroscience, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Marna Landman
- Gordon Institute of Business Science, University of Pretoria, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Felice Tavera
- Department of Psychology, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
| | - Jack L Andrews
- Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- University College, Oxford, UK
| | - Aslı Bursalıoğlu
- Department of Psychology, Loyola University Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Zorana Zupan
- Institute of Psychology, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Lisa Wagner
- Jacobs Center for Productive Youth Development, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
- Department of Psychology, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Joaquín Navajas
- Laboratorio de Neurociencia, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, Buenos Aires, Argentina
- Escuela de Negocios, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, Buenos Aires, Argentina
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | | | - David Kasdan
- Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Patricia Chen
- University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA
- National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | | | | | - Paul Teas
- University of Illinois Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Nikolay R Rachev
- Department of General, Experimental, Developmental, and Health Psychology, Sofia University St. Kliment Ohridski, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - Matteo M Galizzi
- Department of Psychological and Behavioural Science, London School of Economics, London, UK
| | | | - Marija Petrović
- Department of Psychology & Laboratory for Research of Individual Differences, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Jay J Van Bavel
- Department of Psychology & Center for Neural Science, New York University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Robb Willer
- Department of Sociology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
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Hitchings MDT, Ranzani OT, Lind ML, Dorion M, D'Agostini TL, de Paula RC, de Paula OFP, de Moura Villela EF, Scaramuzzini Torres MS, de Oliveira SB, Schulz W, Almiron M, Said R, de Oliveira RD, Vieira da Silva P, de Araújo WN, Gorinchteyn JC, Dean NE, Andrews JR, Cummings DAT, Ko AI, Croda J. Change in covid-19 risk over time following vaccination with CoronaVac: test negative case-control study. BMJ 2022; 377:e070102. [PMID: 35697361 PMCID: PMC9189440 DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2022-070102] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/04/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To estimate the change in odds of covid-19 over time following primary series completion of the inactivated whole virus vaccine CoronaVac (Sinovac Biotech) in São Paulo State, Brazil. DESIGN Test negative case-control study. SETTING Community testing for covid-19 in São Paulo State, Brazil. PARTICIPANTS Adults aged ≥18 years who were residents of São Paulo state, had received two doses of CoronaVac, did not have a laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection before vaccination, and underwent reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing for SARS-CoV-2 from 17 January to 14 December 2021. Cases were matched to test negative controls by age (in 5 year bands), municipality of residence, healthcare worker status, and epidemiological week of RT-PCR test. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES RT-PCR confirmed symptomatic covid-19 and associated hospital admissions and deaths. Conditional logistic regression was adjusted for sex, number of covid-19 associated comorbidities, race, and previous acute respiratory illness. RESULTS From 202 741 eligible people, 52 170 cases with symptomatic covid-19 and 69 115 test negative controls with covid-19 symptoms were formed into 43 257 matched sets. Adjusted odds ratios of symptomatic covid-19 increased with time since completion of the vaccination series. The increase in odds was greater in younger people and among healthcare workers, although sensitivity analyses suggested that this was in part due to bias. In addition, the adjusted odds ratios of covid-19 related hospital admission or death significantly increased with time compared with the odds 14-41 days after series completion: from 1.25 (95% confidence interval 1.04 to 1.51) at 70-97 days up to 1.94 (1.41 to 2.67) from 182 days onwards. CONCLUSIONS Significant increases in the risk of moderate and severe covid-19 outcomes occurred three months after primary vaccination with CoronaVac among people aged 65 and older. These findings provide supportive evidence for the implementation of vaccine boosters in these populations who received this inactivated vaccine. Studies of waning should include analyses designed to uncover common biases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matt D T Hitchings
- Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Otavio T Ranzani
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
- Pulmonary Division, Heart Institute (InCor), Hospital das Clinicas HCFMUSP, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | - Margaret L Lind
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Murilo Dorion
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Wade Schulz
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Maria Almiron
- Pan American Health Organization, Brasília, DF, Brazil
| | - Rodrigo Said
- Pan American Health Organization, Brasília, DF, Brazil
| | | | | | - Wildo Navegantes de Araújo
- Pan American Health Organization, Brasília, DF, Brazil
- Universidade de Brasília, Brasília, DF, Brazil
- National Institute for Science and Technology for Health Technology Assessment, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
| | | | - Natalie E Dean
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Jason R Andrews
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
- Contributed equally
| | - Derek A T Cummings
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- Contributed equally
| | - Albert I Ko
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
- Instituto Gonçalo Moniz, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Salvador, BA, Brazil
- Contributed equally
| | - Julio Croda
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
- Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul - UFMS, Campo Grande, MS, Brazil
- Fiocruz Mato Grosso do Sul, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Campo Grande, MS, Brazil
- Contributed equally
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