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Ahmad F, Mori T, Rehan M, Bosso L, Kabir M. Applying a Random Encounter Model to Estimate the Asiatic Black Bear ( Ursus thibetanus) Density from Camera Traps in the Hindu Raj Mountains, Pakistan. BIOLOGY 2024; 13:341. [PMID: 38785823 PMCID: PMC11117995 DOI: 10.3390/biology13050341] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2024] [Revised: 04/18/2024] [Accepted: 05/08/2024] [Indexed: 05/25/2024]
Abstract
Estimating the population density of vulnerable species, such as the elusive and nocturnal Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus), is essential for wildlife conservation and management. We used camera traps and a Random Encounter Model (REM) to estimate the population density of U. thibetanus during the autumn and winter seasons in the Hindu Raj Mountains. We installed 23 camera traps from October to December 2020 and acquired 66 independent pictures of Asiatic black bears over 428 trap nights. Our results showed that the bears preferred lowland areas with the presence of Quercus spp. We estimated, using the REM, a population density of U. thibetanus of 1.875 (standard error = 0.185) per square kilometer, which is significantly higher than that in other habitats. Our results showed that during autumn and winter, the bear population density tends to concentrate at lower elevations. Forest cover showed a positive correlation with the rates of bear encounters unlike the Euclidean distance to human settlements, altitude, and aspect variables. The approaches used here are cost-effective for estimating the population density of rare and vulnerable species such as U. thibetanus, and can be used to estimate their population density in Pakistan. Population density estimation can identify areas where the bears live and human-bear conflicts occurred and use this information in future wildlife management plans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Faizan Ahmad
- Wildlife Ecology Lab, Department of Forestry & Wildlife Management, The University of Haripur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 22600, Pakistan; (F.A.); (M.R.)
| | - Tomoki Mori
- Institute for Mountain Science, Shinshu University, Kamiina County, Nagano 380-8544, Japan;
- Laboratory of Environmental Zoology, Faculty of Agriculture, Meijo University, Nagoya 468-8502, Japan
| | - Muhammad Rehan
- Wildlife Ecology Lab, Department of Forestry & Wildlife Management, The University of Haripur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 22600, Pakistan; (F.A.); (M.R.)
| | - Luciano Bosso
- Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean, National Research Council of Italy, Piazzale E. Fermi, 1, 80055 Portici, Italy;
| | - Muhammad Kabir
- Wildlife Ecology Lab, Department of Forestry & Wildlife Management, The University of Haripur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 22600, Pakistan; (F.A.); (M.R.)
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Khan TU, Ullah I, Hu Y, Liang J, Ahmad S, Omifolaji JK, Hu H. Assessment of Suitable Habitat of the Demoiselle Crane ( Anthropoides virgo) in the Wake of Climate Change: A Study of Its Wintering Refugees in Pakistan. Animals (Basel) 2024; 14:1453. [PMID: 38791670 PMCID: PMC11117222 DOI: 10.3390/ani14101453] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2024] [Revised: 04/17/2024] [Accepted: 04/22/2024] [Indexed: 05/26/2024] Open
Abstract
The inevitable impacts of climate change have reverberated across ecosystems and caused substantial global biodiversity loss. Climate-induced habitat loss has contributed to range shifts at both species and community levels. Given the importance of identifying suitable habitats for at-risk species, it is imperative to assess potential current and future distributions, and to understand influential environmental factors. Like many species, the Demoiselle crane is not immune to climatic pressures. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces in Pakistan are known wintering grounds for this species. Given that Pakistan is among the top five countries facing devastating effects of climate change, this study sought to conduct species distribution modeling under climate change using data collected during 4 years of field surveys. We developed a Maximum Entropy distribution model to predict the current and projected future distribution of the species across the study area. Future habitat projections for 2050 and 2070 were carried out using two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) under three global circulation models, including HADGEM2-AO, BCC-CSM1-1, and CCSM4. The most influential factors shaping Demoiselle Crane habitat suitability included the temperature seasonality, annual mean temperature, terrain ruggedness index, and human population density, all of which contributed significantly to the suitability (81.3%). The model identified 35% of the study area as moderately suitable (134,068 km2) and highly suitable (27,911 km2) habitat for the species under current climatic conditions. Under changing climate scenarios, our model predicted a major loss of the species' current suitable habitat, with shrinkage and shift towards western-central areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan boarder. The RCP 8.5, which is the extreme climate change scenario, portrays particularly severe consequences, with habitat losses reaching 65% in 2050 and 85% in 2070. This comprehensive study provides useful insights into the Demoiselle Crane habitat's current and future dynamics in Pakistan.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tauheed Ullah Khan
- Guangdong Key Laboratory of Animal Conservation and Resource Utilization, Guangdong Public Laboratory of Wild Animal Conservation and Utilization, Institute of Zoology, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510260, China (J.K.O.)
| | - Inam Ullah
- Institute of Biological Sciences, Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan 29220, Pakistan;
- College of Wildlife and Protected Areas, Northeast Forestry University, No. 26, Hexing Road, Harbin 150040, China
| | - Yiming Hu
- Guangdong Key Laboratory of Animal Conservation and Resource Utilization, Guangdong Public Laboratory of Wild Animal Conservation and Utilization, Institute of Zoology, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510260, China (J.K.O.)
| | - Jianchao Liang
- Guangdong Key Laboratory of Animal Conservation and Resource Utilization, Guangdong Public Laboratory of Wild Animal Conservation and Utilization, Institute of Zoology, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510260, China (J.K.O.)
| | - Shahid Ahmad
- School of Ecology and Environment, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China
- Center for Eco-Environment Restoration Engineering of Hainan Province, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China
| | - James Kehinde Omifolaji
- Guangdong Key Laboratory of Animal Conservation and Resource Utilization, Guangdong Public Laboratory of Wild Animal Conservation and Utilization, Institute of Zoology, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510260, China (J.K.O.)
| | - Huijian Hu
- Guangdong Key Laboratory of Animal Conservation and Resource Utilization, Guangdong Public Laboratory of Wild Animal Conservation and Utilization, Institute of Zoology, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510260, China (J.K.O.)
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Borovichev EA, Kozhin MN, Koroleva NE, Petrova OV, Akhmerova DR, Shulina MV. Conservation of the Rare and Endangered Vascular Plants in the Mining and Tourism Area: Khibiny Mountains, Murmansk Region, Russia. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2024; 13:1180. [PMID: 38732395 PMCID: PMC11085426 DOI: 10.3390/plants13091180] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2024] [Revised: 04/11/2024] [Accepted: 04/17/2024] [Indexed: 05/13/2024]
Abstract
The Khibiny Mountains (hereafter called Khibiny Mts.) are one of the most urbanized and industrialized regions in the Russian Arctic. There are combined a developed mining complex, elaborate infrastructure, a well-known tourist resort, and a large population, all amidst an exceptionally rich biodiversity of plants. In this study, we analyzed the current knowledge of the spatial distribution of rare and endangered vascular plants and vegetation and the impacts of human activities on these ecosystems. Approximately 28% of the protected vascular plant species in the Murmansk Region were registered within the confines of the Khibiny Mts. In particular, although only a handful of protected species had a widespread presence, most rare species were confined to the southern reaches of the mountain range, with only a select few extending into other parts. Papaver lapponicum was the only species that thrived across the entire territory, including industrial areas. The studied territory contained nine specially protected areas spanning 123,220 hectares. Nature monuments adjacent to mining sites and urban centers play an important role in preserving regional biodiversity. However, the expansion of the mining industry, alongside deforestation and wildfires, poses considerable threats to the biodiversity of the Khibiny Mts. A comprehensive biodiversity conservation strategy implemented in this region balances the local and expansive territorial protection of rare species and habitats, ensuring environmental preservation while facilitating social and economic progress, a noteworthy example of environmental protection in the Arctic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eugene A. Borovichev
- Avrorin Polar-Alpine Botanical Garden-Institute, Kola Science Center, Russian Academy of Sciences, Apatity 184209, Russia; (M.N.K.); (N.E.K.); (O.V.P.)
| | - Mikhail N. Kozhin
- Avrorin Polar-Alpine Botanical Garden-Institute, Kola Science Center, Russian Academy of Sciences, Apatity 184209, Russia; (M.N.K.); (N.E.K.); (O.V.P.)
| | - Natalia E. Koroleva
- Avrorin Polar-Alpine Botanical Garden-Institute, Kola Science Center, Russian Academy of Sciences, Apatity 184209, Russia; (M.N.K.); (N.E.K.); (O.V.P.)
| | - Olga V. Petrova
- Avrorin Polar-Alpine Botanical Garden-Institute, Kola Science Center, Russian Academy of Sciences, Apatity 184209, Russia; (M.N.K.); (N.E.K.); (O.V.P.)
| | - Diana R. Akhmerova
- Institute of Industrial Ecology Problems in the North, Kola Science Center, Russian Academy of Sciences, Apatity 184209, Russia; (D.R.A.); (M.V.S.)
| | - Maria V. Shulina
- Institute of Industrial Ecology Problems in the North, Kola Science Center, Russian Academy of Sciences, Apatity 184209, Russia; (D.R.A.); (M.V.S.)
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Nan Q, Li C, Li X, Zheng D, Li Z, Zhao L. Modeling the Potential Distribution Patterns of the Invasive Plant Species Phytolacca americana in China in Response to Climate Change. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2024; 13:1082. [PMID: 38674491 PMCID: PMC11054219 DOI: 10.3390/plants13081082] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2024] [Revised: 03/31/2024] [Accepted: 04/09/2024] [Indexed: 04/28/2024]
Abstract
Phytolacca americana, introduced to China in the 20th century for its medicinal properties, has posed a significant ecological and agricultural challenge. Its prolific fruit production, high reproductive coefficient, adaptability, and toxic roots and fruits have led to the formation of monoculture communities, reducing native species diversity and posing threats to agriculture, human and animal health, and local ecosystems. Understanding its potential distribution patterns at a regional scale and its response to climate change is essential for effective monitoring, management, and control. In this study, we utilized the Maxent model to simulate potential habitat areas of P. americana across three timeframes (current, 2050s, and 2070s) under three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). Leveraging data from 556 P. americana sites across China, we employed ROC curves to assess the prediction accuracy. Our findings highlight key environmental factors influencing P. americana's geographical distribution, including the driest month's precipitation, the coldest month's minimum temperature, the wettest month's precipitation, isothermality, and temperature annual range. Under current climate conditions, P. americana potentially inhabits 280.26 × 104 km2 in China, with a concentration in 27 provinces and cities within the Yangtze River basin and its southern regions. While future climate change scenarios do not drastically alter the total suitable area, the proportions of high and low-suitability areas decrease over time, shifting towards moderate suitability. Specifically, in the SSP126 scenario, the centroid of the predicted suitable area shifts northeastward and then southwestward. In contrast, in the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, the centroid shifts northward.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qianru Nan
- School of Resources and Environmental Science, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China; (Q.N.); (X.L.); (D.Z.); (Z.L.)
| | - Chunhui Li
- Agricultural Development Service Centre of Enshi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture, Enshi 44500, China
| | - Xinghao Li
- School of Resources and Environmental Science, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China; (Q.N.); (X.L.); (D.Z.); (Z.L.)
| | - Danni Zheng
- School of Resources and Environmental Science, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China; (Q.N.); (X.L.); (D.Z.); (Z.L.)
| | - Zhaohua Li
- School of Resources and Environmental Science, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China; (Q.N.); (X.L.); (D.Z.); (Z.L.)
| | - Liya Zhao
- School of Resources and Environmental Science, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China; (Q.N.); (X.L.); (D.Z.); (Z.L.)
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Bełcik M, Lenda ML, Pustkowiak S, Woźniak B, Skórka P. Social information modifies the associations between forest fragmentation and the abundance of a passerine bird. Sci Rep 2023; 13:21386. [PMID: 38049553 PMCID: PMC10696010 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-48512-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/30/2023] [Accepted: 11/27/2023] [Indexed: 12/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Habitat loss and fragmentation are the main factors driving the occurrence and abundance of species in the landscape. However, the local occurrence and abundance of species may also depend on conspecific and heterospecific social information e.g. clues of animals' presence or their voices. We investigated the impact of the interaction between different types of social information and forest fragmentation on the abundance of the song thrush, Turdus philomelos, in Central Europe. Three types of social information (attractive, repulsive, and mixed) and procedural control were broadcasted via loudspeakers in 150 forest patches that varied in size and isolation metrics. Repulsive social information (cues of presence of predator) decreased abundance of song thrush. Also, the repulsive social information changed the association between forest patch isolation, size and the abundance. Attractive social information (songs of the studied thrush) had no effect on song thrush abundance. However, the attractive social information reversed the positive correlation between habitat patch size and the abundance. Mixed social information (both repulsive and attractive) had no impact on the abundance nor interacted with habitat fragmentation. The observed effects mostly did not last to the next breeding season. Overall, our findings indicate that lands of fear and social attraction could modify the effect of habitat fragmentation on the species abundance but these effects probably are not long-lasting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michał Bełcik
- Institute of Nature Conservation, Polish Academy of Sciences, Mickiewicza 33, 31-120, Kraków, Poland.
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, 4072, Australia.
| | - Magdalena Lidia Lenda
- Institute of Nature Conservation, Polish Academy of Sciences, Mickiewicza 33, 31-120, Kraków, Poland
| | - Sylwia Pustkowiak
- Population Ecology Lab, Institute of Environmental Biology, Faculty of Biology, Adam Mickiewicz University, Uniwersytetu Poznańskiego 6, 61-614, Poznań, Poland
| | - Bartłomiej Woźniak
- Department of Forest Zoology and Wildlife Management, Institute of Forest Sciences, Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW, Nowoursynowska 159, 02-776, Warsaw, Poland
| | - Piotr Skórka
- Institute of Nature Conservation, Polish Academy of Sciences, Mickiewicza 33, 31-120, Kraków, Poland
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Dhakal T, Kim TS, Kim SH, Tiwari S, Kim JY, Jang GS, Lee DH. Distribution of sika deer (Cervus nippon) and the bioclimatic impact on their habitats in South Korea. Sci Rep 2023; 13:19040. [PMID: 37923751 PMCID: PMC10624661 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-45845-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2023] [Accepted: 10/24/2023] [Indexed: 11/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Invasive species and climate change are primary factors influencing biodiversity, and examining the behavior of invasive species is essential for effective conservation management. Here, we report the global distribution of the sika deer (Cervus nippon) based on locations reported in published literature (Google Scholar), the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) database, and the International Union for Conservation of Nature report. We used the maximum entropy (Maxent) model to examine the impact of climate change on sika deer habitats in South Korea based on GBIF occurrence data and WorldClim bioclimatic variables. Habitat suitability analysis was performed using the Maxent model under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 (for predicted climatic conditions in both 2050 and 2070) to project the effects of different climate change scenarios on South Korean sika deer habitats. We identified that the sika deer is distributed in 39 countries worldwide. Due to climate change effects, South Korean sika deer habitats will decline by approximately 24.98% and 20.63% (under RCP 4.5) and by 50.51% and 57.35% (under RCP 8.5) by 2050 and 2070, respectively. Our findings shed light on sika deer ecology and provide reference data for future conservation management strategies and policy design.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thakur Dhakal
- Department of Life Sciences, Yeungnam University, Gyeongsan, 38541, Republic of Korea
| | - Tae-Su Kim
- Department of Life Sciences, Yeungnam University, Gyeongsan, 38541, Republic of Korea
| | - Seong-Hyeon Kim
- Department of Life Sciences, Yeungnam University, Gyeongsan, 38541, Republic of Korea
| | - Shraddha Tiwari
- College of Veterinary Medicine, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon, 24341, Republic of Korea
| | - Jun-Young Kim
- Department of Life Sciences, Yeungnam University, Gyeongsan, 38541, Republic of Korea
| | - Gab-Sue Jang
- Department of Life Sciences, Yeungnam University, Gyeongsan, 38541, Republic of Korea.
| | - Do-Hun Lee
- National Institute of Ecology, Seocheon, 33657, Republic of Korea.
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Wang X, Peng P, Bai M, Bai W, Zhang S, Feng Y, Wang J, Tang Y. Impacts of physiological characteristics and human activities on the species distribution models of orchids taking the Hengduan Mountains as a case. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10566. [PMID: 37791293 PMCID: PMC10542477 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10566] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2023] [Revised: 09/06/2023] [Accepted: 09/14/2023] [Indexed: 10/05/2023] Open
Abstract
The biogeography research of orchids through species distribution models (SDMs), a vital tool in the biogeography field, is critical to understanding the fundamental geographic distribution patterns and identifying conservation priorities. The correspondence between species occurrence and environmental information is crucial to the model's performance. However, ecological preferences unique to different orchid species, such as their life forms, are often overlooked during the modeling process. This oversight can introduce bias and increase model uncertainty. Additionally, human activities, as an important potential predictor, have not been quantified in any orchid SDMs. Taking the Hengduan Mountains as an example, we preprocessed all orchid species' occurrences based on physiological characteristics. Choosing five spatial factors related to human activities to quantify the interference and enter into models as HI factor. Using different modeling methods (GLM, MaxEnt, and RF) and evaluation indices (AUC, TSS, and Kappa), diverse modeling strategies have been constructed in the study. A double-ranking method has been adopted to select the critical orchid distribution regions. The results showed that classification models based on physiological characteristics significantly improved the model's accuracy while adding the HI factor had the same effect but the absence of enough significance. Suitability maps indicated that highly heterogeneous mountainous areas were vital for the distribution of orchids in the Hengduan Mountains. Different distribution patterns and critical regions existed between various orchid life forms geographically - terrestrial orchids were dominant in the mountain, and mycoherterophical orchids were primarily located in the north, more influenced by vegetation and temperature. Critical regions of epiphytic orchids were in the south due to a greater dependence on precipitation and temperature. These studies are informative for understanding the orchids' geographic distribution patterns in the Hengduan Mountains, promoting conservation and providing references for similar research beyond orchids.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xue‐Man Wang
- College of Earth SciencesChengdu University of TechnologyChengduChina
| | - Pei‐Hao Peng
- College of Earth SciencesChengdu University of TechnologyChengduChina
| | - Mao‐Yang Bai
- College of Earth SciencesChengdu University of TechnologyChengduChina
| | - Wen‐Qian Bai
- College of Earth SciencesChengdu University of TechnologyChengduChina
| | - Shi‐Qi Zhang
- College of Earth SciencesChengdu University of TechnologyChengduChina
| | - Yu Feng
- College of Earth SciencesChengdu University of TechnologyChengduChina
| | - Juan Wang
- College of Tourism and Urban‐rural PlanningChengdu University of TechnologyChengduChina
| | - Ying Tang
- College of Tourism and Urban‐rural PlanningChengdu University of TechnologyChengduChina
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Ahmed AS, Bekele A, Kasso M, Atickem A. Impact of climate change on the distribution and predicted habitat suitability of two fruit bats ( Rousettus aegyptiacus and Epomophorus labiatus) in Ethiopia: Implications for conservation. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10481. [PMID: 37711498 PMCID: PMC10497737 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10481] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/22/2023] [Revised: 08/05/2023] [Accepted: 08/08/2023] [Indexed: 09/16/2023] Open
Abstract
Fruit bats serve as crucial bioindicators, seed dispersers, pollinators, and contributors to food security within ecosystems. However, their population and distribution were threatened by climate change and anthropogenic pressures. Understanding the impacts of these pressures through mapping distribution and habitat suitability is crucial for identifying high-priority areas and implementing effective conservation and management plans. We predicted the distribution and extent of habitat suitability for Rousettus aegyptiacus and Epomophorus labiatus under climate change scenarios using average predictions from four different algorithms to produce an ensemble model. Seasonal precipitation, population index, land-use land cover, vegetation, and the mean temperature of the driest quarter majorly contributed to the predicted habitat suitability for both species. The current predicted sizes of suitable habitats for R. aegyptiacus and E. labiatus were varied, on average 60,271.4 and 85,176.1 km2, respectively. The change in species range size for R. aegyptiacus showed gains in suitable areas of 24.4% and 22.8% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. However, for E. labiatus, suitable areas decreased by 0.95% and 2% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. The range size change of suitable areas between 2050 and 2070 for R. aegyptiacus and E. labiatus shows losses of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively. The predicted maps indicate that the midlands and highlands of southern and eastern Ethiopia harbor highly suitable areas for both species. In contrast, the areas in the northern and central highlands are fragmented. The current model findings show that climate change and anthropogenic pressures have notable impacts on the geographic ranges of two species. Moreover, the predicted suitable habitats for both species are found both within and outside of their historical ranges, which has important implications for conservation efforts. Our ensemble predictions are vital for identifying high-priority areas for fruit bat species conservation efforts and management to mitigate climate change and anthropogenic pressures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ahmed Seid Ahmed
- Department of BiologyHawassa UniversityHawassaEthiopia
- Department of Zoological SciencesAddis Ababa UniversityAddis AbabaEthiopia
| | - Afework Bekele
- Department of Zoological SciencesAddis Ababa UniversityAddis AbabaEthiopia
| | - Mohammed Kasso
- Department of BiologyDire Dawa UniversityDire DawaEthiopia
| | - Anagaw Atickem
- Department of Zoological SciencesAddis Ababa UniversityAddis AbabaEthiopia
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Zhou H, Feng L, Fu L, Sharma RP, Zhou X, Zhao X. Modelling the effects of topographic heterogeneity on distribution of Nitraria tangutorum Bobr. species in deserts using LiDAR-data. Sci Rep 2023; 13:13673. [PMID: 37608034 PMCID: PMC10444836 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-40678-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2023] [Accepted: 08/16/2023] [Indexed: 08/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Microclimate ecology is attracting renewed attention because of its fundamental importance in understanding how organisms respond to climate change. Many hot issues can be investigated in desert ecosystems, including the relationship between species distribution and environmental gradients (e.g., elevation, slope, topographic convergence index, and solar insolation). Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can be used to understand these relationships. We used data acquired from the important desert plant Nitraria tangutorum Bobr. communities and desert topographic factors extracted from LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data of one square kilometer in the inner Mongolia region of China to develop SDMs. We evaluated the performance of SDMs developed with a variety of both the parametric and nonparametric algorithms (Bioclimatic Modelling (BIOCLIM), Domain, Mahalanobi, Generalized Linear Model, Generalized Additive Model, Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate these algorithms. The SDMs developed with RF showed the best performance based on the area under curve (0.7733). We also produced the Nitraria tangutorum Bobr. distribution maps with the best SDM and suitable habitat area of the Domain model. Based on the suitability map, we conclude that Nitraria tangutorum Bobr. is more suited to southern part with 0-20 degree slopes at an elevation of approximately 1010 m. This is the first attempt of modelling the effects of topographic heterogeneity on the desert species distribution on a small scale. The presented SDMs can have important applications for predicting species distribution and will be useful for preparing conservation and management strategies for desert ecosystems on a small scale.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huoyan Zhou
- School of Ecology and Environment Science, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650031, Yunnan Province, People's Republic of China
- Research Institute of Forestry Policy and Information, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, 100091, People's Republic of China
| | - Linyan Feng
- Institute of Forest Resource Information Techniques, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, 100091, People's Republic of China
| | - Liyong Fu
- Institute of Forest Resource Information Techniques, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, 100091, People's Republic of China
| | - Ram P Sharma
- Institute of Forestry, Tribhuvan University, Kritipur, Kathmandu, 44600, Nepal
| | - Xiao Zhou
- International Center for Bamboo and Rattan, Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing, 100091, China
| | - Xiaodi Zhao
- Research Institute of Forestry Policy and Information, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, 100091, People's Republic of China.
- Faculty of Forestry, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada.
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10
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Wettasin M, Chaiyarat R, Youngpoy N, Jieychien N, Sukmasuang R, Tanhan P. Environmental factors induced crop raiding by wild Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) in the Eastern Economic Corridor, Thailand. Sci Rep 2023; 13:13388. [PMID: 37591860 PMCID: PMC10435484 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-40070-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2023] [Accepted: 08/03/2023] [Indexed: 08/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Crop raiding are an increasing concern in wildlife conservation. This study identified the environmental factors that cause wild Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) to enter sub-urban and rural areas and share resources with humans in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) in the eastern part of Thailand. The snowball method was used to interview villagers that had crop raiding experienced in seven provinces of the EEC and adjacent provinces in the eastern part of Thailand in 2020, and data from 183 households indicated that crop raiding had increased continuously from 2000 to 2020, especially in Chonburi, Chachoengsao, and Prachinburi provinces, which have seen increases in damaged agricultural areas. MaxEnt analysis showed an increase in incidents of crop raiding, while the elephants distribution area decreased from 9534 km2 in 2000 to 5199 km2 in 2010 and 4850 km2 in 2020. The study area has had land use changes in the low elevations from croplands of cassava and sugar cane to eucalyptus, para rubber, and fruits. These mixed crop plantations provide a pseudo-habitat for wild Asian elephants. The results from this study provide evidence that changes in land use and reduction of suitable habitat are factors that influenced the movement of wild Asian elephants to the rural agricultural areas and increased the incidents of crop raiding.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maneepailin Wettasin
- Environmental Management and Technology, Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom, 73170, Thailand
| | - Rattanawat Chaiyarat
- Wildlife and Plant Research Center, Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom, 73170, Thailand.
| | - Namphung Youngpoy
- Wildlife and Plant Research Center, Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom, 73170, Thailand
| | - Nawee Jieychien
- Wildlife and Plant Research Center, Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom, 73170, Thailand
| | - Ronglarp Sukmasuang
- Department of Forest Biology, Faculty of Forestry, Kasetsart University, Bangkok, 10900, Thailand
| | - Phanwimol Tanhan
- Department of Pharmacology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Kasetsart University, Bangkok, 10900, Thailand
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11
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Gufi Y, Manaye A, Tesfamariam B, Abrha H, Tesfaye M, Hintsa S. Modeling impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution and abundances of Tamarindus indica in Tigray region, Ethiopia. Heliyon 2023; 9:e17471. [PMID: 37449191 PMCID: PMC10336433 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17471] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2022] [Revised: 06/17/2023] [Accepted: 06/19/2023] [Indexed: 07/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Tamarindus indica is a multipurpose dry land species in sub-Saharan that is traditionally used to build resilience into the farming system. The species is highly threatened and listed on the IUCN Red List. However, information on how climatic condition locally influences its ecological distribution is limited. This study investigates the current and future suitable habitat for the species in the Tigray region, in northern Ethiopia. A total of 220 species presence points and the number of T. indica within a 50 m × 50 m plot were collected. In addition, 19 bioclimatic variables, 3 topographic variables and soil data were used to model the impact of future climate conditions under two Representative Concentration Path Ways (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5). MaxEnt-v-3.3.3 k, Diva-GIS-7.5, and GIS10.6 were used to model the current and future distribution. SPSSv-26 was also utilized to analyze the relationship between the species' abundance and environmental variables. Results showed that the environmental variables determining most for the distribution of T. indica were mean diurnal range (Bio2 (56.9%)); temperature seasonality (Bio4 (10.3%)) and temperature annual range (Bio7 (9.2%)). The model suggested that the current distribution of T. indica covers an area of 9209 km2 (14.04%). This would have increased to 29,363 km2 (44.78%) and 11,046 km2 (16.85%) by 2070 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Compared to the high-impact areas, new gains of suitable areas (net 25,081 km2) for the future distribution of the species were predicted in 2070-RCP4.5. Altitude, rainfall, temperature, silt contents of soils and soil pH have significant contributions (P-value<0.05) to the abundance of T. indica. However, altitude has a negative relationship with the abundance of T. indica. Additional studies to understand population trends and other threats are recommended.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yirga Gufi
- Ethiopian Forest Development, Mekelle Centre, Mekelle, Ethiopia
| | | | | | - Haftu Abrha
- Institutes of Climate and Society, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
- University Felix Houphouet-Boigny, Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire
- Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Lot 660, Hay Moulay Rachid, Ben Guerir, 43150, Morocco
| | - Musse Tesfaye
- Institute of International Forestry and Forest Products, Technical University of Dresden, 01737, Tharandt, Germany
| | - Sibhatleab Hintsa
- Tigray Agricultural Research Institute, Abergelle Agricultural Research Center, Ethiopia
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12
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Buonincontri MP, Bosso L, Smeraldo S, Chiusano ML, Pasta S, Di Pasquale G. Shedding light on the effects of climate and anthropogenic pressures on the disappearance of Fagus sylvatica in the Italian lowlands: evidence from archaeo-anthracology and spatial analyses. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 877:162893. [PMID: 36933734 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162893] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2023] [Revised: 03/11/2023] [Accepted: 03/12/2023] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
Fagus sylvatica is one of the most representative trees of the European deciduous broadleaved forests, yet the impact of changing climatic conditions and anthropogenic pressures (anthromes) on its presence and distribution in the coastal and lowland areas of the Mediterranean Basin has long been overlooked. Here, we first analysed the local forest composition in two different time intervals (350-300 Before Current Era, BCE and 150-100 BCE) using charred wood remains from the Etruscan site of Cetamura (Tuscany, central Italy). Additionally, we reviewed all the relevant publications and the wood/charcoal data obtained from anthracological analysis in F. sylvatica, focusing on samples that date back to 4000 years before present, to better understand the drivers of beech presence and distribution during the Late Holocene (LH) in the Italian Peninsula. Then, we combined charcoal and spatial analyses to test the distribution of beech woodland at low elevation during LH in Italy and to evaluate the effect of climate change and/or anthrome on the disappearance of F. sylvatica from the lowlands. We collected 1383 charcoal fragments in Cetamura belonging to 21 woody taxa, with F. sylvatica being the most abundant species (28 %), followed by other broadleaved trees. We identified 25 sites in the Italian Peninsula with beech charcoals in the last 4000 years. Our spatial analyses showed a marked decrease in habitat suitability of F. sylvatica from LH to the present (ca. 48 %), particularly in the lowlands (0-300 m above sea level, a.s.l.) and in areas included between 300-600 m a.s.l. with a subsequent shift upwards of the beech woodland of ca. 200 m from the past to the present. In the lowland areas, where F. sylvatica has disappeared, anthrome alone and climate + anthorme had a main effect on beech distribution whitin 0-50 m a.s.l., while the climate from 50 to 300 m a.s.l. Furthermore, climate affect also the beech distrinution in the areas >300 m a.s.l., while climate + anthrome and antrhome alone were mainly focused on the lowland areas. Our results highlight the advantage of combining different approaches, such as charcoal analysis and spatial analyses, to explore biogeographic questions about the past and current distribution of F. sylvatica, with important implications for today's forest management and conservation policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mauro Paolo Buonincontri
- Department of History and Cultural Heritage, University of Siena, via Roma 47, Siena 53100, Italy; Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Naples "Federico II", via Università 100, Napoli 80055, Italy
| | - Luciano Bosso
- Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Naples "Federico II", via Università 100, Napoli 80055, Italy.
| | - Sonia Smeraldo
- Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Naples "Federico II", via Università 100, Napoli 80055, Italy
| | - Maria Luisa Chiusano
- Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Naples "Federico II", via Università 100, Napoli 80055, Italy
| | - Salvatore Pasta
- Institute of Biosciences and BioResources, Italian National Research Council, Corso Calatafimi 414, 90129 Palermo, Italy
| | - Gaetano Di Pasquale
- Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Naples "Federico II", via Università 100, Napoli 80055, Italy.
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13
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Mkala EM, Mwanzia V, Nzei J, Oluoch WA, Ngarega BK, Wanga VO, Oulo MA, Ngarega BK, Munyao F, Kilingo FM, Rono P, Waswa EN, Mutinda ES, Ochieng CO, Mwachala G, Hu GW, Wang QF, Katunge JK, Victoire CI. Predicting the potential impacts of climate change on the endangered endemic annonaceae species in east africa. Heliyon 2023; 9:e17405. [PMID: 37416643 PMCID: PMC10320037 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17405] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2023] [Revised: 06/15/2023] [Accepted: 06/15/2023] [Indexed: 07/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Globally, endemic species and natural habitats have been significantly impacted by climate change, and further considerable impacts are predicted. Therefore, understanding how endemic species are impacted by climate change can aid in advancing the necessary conservation initiatives. The use of niche modeling is becoming a popular topic in biological conservation to forecast changes in species distributions under various climate change scenarios. This study used the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator version 1 (ACCESS-CM2) general circulation model of coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) to model the current distribution of suitable habitat for the four threatened Annonaceae species endemic to East Africa (EA), to determine the impact of climate change on their suitable habitat in the years 2050 (average for 2041-2060) and 2070 (average for 2061-2080). Two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) SSP370 and SSP585 were used to project the contraction and expansion of suitable habitats for Uvariodendron kirkii, Uvaria kirkii, Uvariodendron dzomboense and Asteranthe asterias endemic to Kenya and Tanzania in EA. The current distribution for all four species is highly influenced by precipitation, temperature, and environmental factors (population, potential evapotranspiration, and aridity index). Although the loss of the original suitable habitat is anticipated to be significant, appropriate habitat expansion and contraction are projections for all species. More than 70% and 40% of the original habitats of Uvariodendron dzombense and Uvariodendron kirkii are predicted to be destroyed by climate change, respectively. Based on our research, we suggest that areas that are expected to shrink owing to climate change be classified as important protection zones for the preservation of Annonaceae species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elijah Mbandi Mkala
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
| | - Virginia Mwanzia
- Lukenya University, Athi River, P.O Box 90-90128, Mtito Andei, Kenya
| | - Johh Nzei
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
| | - Wyclife Agumba Oluoch
- Center for Development Research – ZEF, University of Bonn, Genscherallee 3, 53113, Bonn, Germany
| | - Boniface K. Ngarega
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
- Centre for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Menglun, 666303, China
| | - Vincent Okello Wanga
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
| | - Milicent Akinyi Oulo
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
| | - Boniface K. Ngarega
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
- Centre for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Menglun, 666303, China
| | - Fredrick Munyao
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
| | - Flory Mkangombe Kilingo
- UNEP-TONGJI Institute of Environmental Science and Sustainable Development (IESD), Tongji University, Siping Road 1239, Shanghai, 200092, PR China
| | - Penninah Rono
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
| | - Emmanuel Nyongesa Waswa
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
| | - Elizabeth Syowai Mutinda
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
| | - Clintone Onyango Ochieng
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
| | - Geoffrey Mwachala
- East African Herbarium, National Museums of Kenya, P. O. Box 451660-0100, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Guang-Wan Hu
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
| | - Qing-Feng Wang
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
| | - Jacinta Kaweze Katunge
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
| | - Calmina Izabayo Victoire
- CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China
- Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN-100049, China
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14
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Dai Y, Huang H, Qing Y, Li J, Li D. Ecological response of an umbrella species to changing climate and land use: Habitat conservation for Asiatic black bear in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region, Southwestern China. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10222. [PMID: 37384242 PMCID: PMC10293704 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10222] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2023] [Revised: 06/06/2023] [Accepted: 06/12/2023] [Indexed: 06/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate and land use changes are increasingly recognized as major threats to global biodiversity, with significant impacts on wildlife populations and ecosystems worldwide. The study of how climate and land use changes impact wildlife is of paramount importance for advancing our understanding of ecological processes in the face of global environmental change, informing conservation planning and management, and identifying the mechanisms and thresholds that underlie species' responses to shifting climatic conditions. The Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) is a prominent umbrella species in a biodiversity hotspot in Southwestern China, and its conservation is vital for safeguarding sympatric species. However, the extent to which this species' habitat may respond to global climate and land use changes is poorly understood, underscoring the need for further investigation. Our goal was to anticipate the potential impacts of upcoming climate and land use changes on the distribution and dispersal patterns of the Asiatic black bear in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region. We used MaxEnt modeling to evaluate habitat vulnerability using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three scenarios of climate and land use changes. Subsequently, we used Circuit Theory to identify prospective dispersal paths. Our results revealed that the current area of suitable habitat for the Asiatic black bear was 225,609.59 km2 (comprising 39.69% of the total study area), but was expected to decrease by -53.1%, -49.48%, and -28.55% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 projection scenarios, respectively. Across all three GCMs, the distribution areas and dispersal paths of the Asiatic black bear were projected to shift to higher altitudes and constrict by the 2070s. Furthermore, the results indicated that the density of dispersal paths would decrease, while the resistance to dispersal would increase across the study area. In order to protect the Asiatic black bear, it is essential to prioritize the protection of climate refugia and dispersal paths. Our findings provide a sound scientific foundation for the allocation of such protected areas in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region that are both effective and adaptive in the face of ongoing global climate and land use changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yunchuan Dai
- Institute for Ecology and Environmental Resources, Research Center for Ecological Security and Green DevelopmentChongqing Academy of Social SciencesChongqingChina
| | - Heqing Huang
- Chongqing Academy of Ecology and Environmental SciencesChongqingChina
| | - Yu Qing
- Chongqing Industry Polytechnic CollegeChongqingChina
| | - Jiatong Li
- School of TourismKaili UniversityKailiChina
| | - Dayong Li
- Key Laboratory of Southwest China Wildlife Resources Conservation (Ministry of Education)China West Normal UniversityNanchongChina
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15
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Mtsetfwa FP, Kruger L, McCleery RA. Climate change decouples dominant tree species in African savannas. Sci Rep 2023; 13:7619. [PMID: 37165034 PMCID: PMC10172338 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-34550-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2023] [Accepted: 05/03/2023] [Indexed: 05/12/2023] Open
Abstract
To understand how two dominant African savanna trees will continue to respond to climate changes, we examined their regeneration niche and adult tree distributions. Specifically, we wanted to (1) determine if distributional patterns were shifting, (2) predict future distributions under different climate change scenarios and (3) evaluate the realism of predicted future distributions. We randomly placed 40 grids into 6 strata across a climate gradient in the kingdom of Eswatini. Within these grids, we sampled adult and seedling marula (Scelerocarya birrea) and knobthorn (Senegalia nigrecens) trees and used the data to model their abundance. Next, we quantified shifts in distributional patterns (e.g., expansion or contraction) by measuring the current and projected areas of overlap between seedling and adult trees. Finally, we predicted future distributions of abundance based on predicted climate conditions. We found knobthorn seedlings within a small portion of the adult distribution, suggesting it was unlikely to track climate changes. Alternatively, finding marula seedlings on and beyond one edge of the adult distribution, suggested its range would shift toward cooler climates. Predicted future distributions suggest suitable climate for both species would transition out of savannas and into grasslands. Future projections (2041-2070) appeared consistent with observed distributions of marula, but knobthorn predictions were unrealistic given the lack of evidence for regeneration outside of its current range. The idiosyncratic responses of these species to climate change are likely to decouple these keystone structures in the coming decades and are likely to have considerable cascading effects including the potential rearrangement of faunal communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fezile P Mtsetfwa
- Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, School of Natural Resource and Environment, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
- School of Animal Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Laurence Kruger
- Organisation for Tropical Studies, Skukuza, South Africa
- Biology Department, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Robert A McCleery
- Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, School of Natural Resource and Environment, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
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16
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Beridze B, Sękiewicz K, Walas Ł, Thomas PA, Danelia I, Fazaliyev V, Kvartskhava G, Sós J, Dering M. Biodiversity protection against anthropogenic climate change: Conservation prioritization of Castanea sativa in the South Caucasus based on genetic and ecological metrics. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10068. [PMID: 37214605 PMCID: PMC10196223 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10068] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2023] [Revised: 04/12/2023] [Accepted: 04/21/2023] [Indexed: 05/24/2023] Open
Abstract
The climate drives species distribution and genetic diversity; the latter defines the adaptability of populations and species. The ongoing climate crisis induces tree decline in many regions, compromising the mitigation potential of forests. Scientific-based strategies for prioritizing forest tree populations are critical to managing the impact of climate change. Identifying future climate refugia, which are locations naturally buffering the negative impact of climate change, may facilitate local conservation. In this work, we conducted the populations' prioritization for Castanea sativa (sweet chestnut), a Neogene relict growing in the Caucasus global biodiversity hotspot. We generated genetic and ecological metrics for 21 sites in Georgia and Azerbaijan, which cover the natural range of sweet chestnut across the region. We demonstrated that climate primarily drives the pattern of genetic diversity in C. sativa, proved with a significant isolation-by-environment model. In future, climate change may significantly reorganize the species' genetic diversity, inducing even some genetic loss, especially in the very distinct eastern fringe of the species range in Azerbaijan. Based on our combined approach, we mapped populations suitable for ex situ and in situ conservation, accounting for genetic variability and the location of future climate refugia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Berika Beridze
- Institute of DendrologyPolish Academy of SciencesKórnikPoland
- Faculty of BiologyAdam Mickiewicz UniversityPoznańPoland
| | | | - Łukasz Walas
- Institute of DendrologyPolish Academy of SciencesKórnikPoland
| | - Peter A. Thomas
- School of Biological SciencesKeele UniversityStaffordshireUK
| | - Irina Danelia
- National Botanical Garden of GeorgiaTbilisiGeorgia
- Faculty of Agricultural Science and Bio‐System EngineeringGeorgian Technical UniversityTbilisiGeorgia
| | - Vahid Fazaliyev
- Forest Development ServiceMinistry of Ecology and Natural Resources of AzerbaijanBakuAzerbaijan
| | - Giorgi Kvartskhava
- Faculty of Agricultural Science and Bio‐System EngineeringGeorgian Technical UniversityTbilisiGeorgia
| | - Jan Sós
- Department of SilviculturePoznań University of Life SciencesPoznańPoland
| | - Monika Dering
- Institute of DendrologyPolish Academy of SciencesKórnikPoland
- Department of SilviculturePoznań University of Life SciencesPoznańPoland
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17
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Li X, Zhang S, Huang R, Feng L, Xu S, Liu B. Diversity and distribution variation of urban spontaneous vegetation with distinct frequencies along river corridors in a fast-growing city. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 333:117446. [PMID: 36758408 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117446] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2022] [Revised: 12/28/2022] [Accepted: 02/01/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
River corridors are vital to urban ecology, regulating climate and providing habitats for animals. Spontaneous plants naturally colonize various spaces therein, where they play important roles. Previous studies have explored many factors driving spontaneous plant diversity at the city scale and in specific habitats. However, we lack a holistic understanding of the diversity and distribution of variation of spontaneous vegetation that directly reflects the effects of urbanization. We conducted a field study of 1250 sample plots along river corridors in Chengdu, a fast-growing city in China, and the spontaneous plants in fifteen microhabitat types were surveyed. Diversity and distribution patterns were examined for species with distinct dispersal abilities. There was a far greater richness of occasional species compared to dominant and common species, but occasional species were markedly less abundant. Vacant lots and natural riverbanks harbored the most species, but revetment walls and lawns also supported a considerable number of species, especially in the city center. Species diversity among different urban areas was strongly related to microhabitat conditions. The proportions of dominant, common, and occasional species varied among communities. In communities on vacant lots of less urbanized areas, the richness of dominant species was greater, whereas in green spaces created by planted vegetation, occasional species were more diverse. Green space microenvironments are hospitable to some rare species. Urbanization and microhabitats have co-effects and thus ultimately determine diversity and distribution patterns. Such patterns, if linked to ecological and ornamental value, can provide a new perspective and nature-based solutions to urban rewilding and landscape design.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaopeng Li
- School of Architecture, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 611756, Sichuan, China.
| | - Sining Zhang
- School of Architecture, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 611756, Sichuan, China.
| | - Rui Huang
- School of Architecture, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 611756, Sichuan, China.
| | - Li Feng
- Chengdu Park City Construction and Development Research Institute, Chengdu, 610031, Sichuan, China.
| | - Sihui Xu
- School of Architecture, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 611756, Sichuan, China.
| | - Baichuan Liu
- School of Architecture, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 611756, Sichuan, China.
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18
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Li J, Shi X, He X, Li D, Hu Q, Zhang Y, Ran J. Free-ranging livestock affected the spatiotemporal behavior of the endangered snow leopard ( Panthera uncia). Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e9992. [PMID: 37091566 PMCID: PMC10115902 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.9992] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2022] [Revised: 03/22/2023] [Accepted: 03/27/2023] [Indexed: 04/25/2023] Open
Abstract
Long recognized as a threat to wildlife, particularly for large carnivores, livestock grazing in protected areas can potentially undermine conservation objectives. The interspecific interactions among livestock, snow leopards (Panthera uncia), and their wild prey in fragile Asian highland ecosystems have been a subject of debate. We strategically deployed 164 camera traps in the Wolong National Nature Reserve to systematically investigate the activities of snow leopards, their primary wild ungulate prey species, and free-ranging livestock. We found that snow leopard habitat use was influenced by both wild prey and livestock. Blue sheep served as the main wild prey that spatially attracted snow leopards and coexisted with yaks while free-ranging yaks significantly restricted snow leopard habitat use both temporally and spatially. This study challenges the conventional understanding that livestock indirectly impacts large carnivores by competing with and displacing wild prey. Our findings highlight that free-ranging yaks within the alpine canyon terrain could directly limit snow leopard habitat use, suggesting a potential risk of grazing in reducing apex predator distribution and jeopardizing their populations. Consequently, managing their coexistence in shared habitats requires a more nuanced approach. Furthermore, our research underscores the importance of further research efforts aimed at enhancing our comprehension of the complex interplay within animal communities and ecosystems. This knowledge will contribute to the development of informed, evidence-based conservation strategies and policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiaxin Li
- Key Laboratory of Bioresources and Eco‐Environment of Ministry of Education, College of Life SciencesSichuan UniversityChengduSichuanChina
| | - Xiaogang Shi
- Wolong National Nature ReserveAdministration Bureau of Wolong National Nature ReserveWolong Town, Wenchuan CountyAbaChina
| | - Xingcheng He
- Key Laboratory of Bioresources and Eco‐Environment of Ministry of Education, College of Life SciencesSichuan UniversityChengduSichuanChina
| | - Dongrui Li
- Key Laboratory of Bioresources and Eco‐Environment of Ministry of Education, College of Life SciencesSichuan UniversityChengduSichuanChina
| | - Qiang Hu
- Wolong National Nature ReserveAdministration Bureau of Wolong National Nature ReserveWolong Town, Wenchuan CountyAbaChina
| | - Yanni Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Bioresources and Eco‐Environment of Ministry of Education, College of Life SciencesSichuan UniversityChengduSichuanChina
| | - Jianghong Ran
- Key Laboratory of Bioresources and Eco‐Environment of Ministry of Education, College of Life SciencesSichuan UniversityChengduSichuanChina
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Moheb Z, Nelson MF, Ostrowski S, Zahler PI, Bowlick FJ, Fuller TK. Factors influencing the diurnal spring distribution of sympatric urial and Siberian ibex in the Hindu Kush Mountains of Wakhan National Park, Afghanistan. Glob Ecol Conserv 2023. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2023.e02423] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/06/2023] Open
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Modeling current and future distribution patterns of Uvaria chamae in Benin (West Africa): Challenges and opportunities for its sustainable management. Heliyon 2023; 9:e13658. [PMID: 36879756 PMCID: PMC9984439 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e13658] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2022] [Revised: 02/06/2023] [Accepted: 02/07/2023] [Indexed: 02/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Uvaria chamae is a wild shrub species widely used as a source for traditional medicine, food and fuel in West Africa. The species is threatened by uncontrolled harvesting of its roots for pharmaceutical applications and by the extension of agricultural land. This study assessed the role of environmental variables for the current distribution and the potential impact of climate change on the future spatial distribution of U. chamae in Benin. We used data related to climate, soil, topography and land cover to model the distribution of the species. Occurrence data were combined with six least correlated bioclimatic variables derived from the WorldClim database, data on soil layers (texture and pH) and topography (slope) obtained from the FAO world database and land cover from the DIVA-GIS site. Random Forest (RF), Generalized Additive Models (GAM), Generalized Linear Models (GLM) and the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm were used to predict the current and future (2050-2070) distribution of the species. Two climate change scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) were considered for the future predictions. The results showed that climate (i.e., water availability) and soil type are the key predictors of the distribution of the species. Based on future climate projections, RF, GLM and GAM models predict that the Guinean-Congolian and Sudano-Guinean zones of Benin will remain suitable for U. chamae, while it will decline in these zones according to the MaxEnt model. These results call for a timely management effort for the species in Benin through its introduction into agroforestry systems to ensure the continuity of its ecosystem services.
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Sarkar D, Talukdar G. Predicting the impact of future climate changes and range-shifts of Indian hornbills (family: Bucerotidae). ECOL INFORM 2023. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2023.101987] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/11/2023]
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22
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Yousefi M, Naderloo R. Global habitat suitability modeling reveals insufficient habitat protection for mangrove crabs. Sci Rep 2022; 12:21713. [PMID: 36522394 PMCID: PMC9755133 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-26226-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2022] [Accepted: 12/12/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Mangrove crabs are important components of mangrove forests however their large scale habitat suitability and conservation received little attention. The Metopograpsus thukuhar/cannicci species complex is a mangrove dwelling species occurs in the Indo-Pacific mangrove forests. Since identifying the complex suitable habitat is critical for its conservation, we modeled global habitat suitability of the complex within marine biogeographic realms and estimated representation of the complex suitable habitats within marine protected areas. We found that the complex' largest and smallest suitable ranges are located in Central Indo-Pacific and Temperate Southern Africa realms, respectively. Only 12.5% of the complex suitable habitat is protected. The highest proportion of the complex' protected suitable habitat (22.9%) is located in Western Indo-Pacific realm while the lowest proportion of the complex' protected suitable habitat (1.38%) is located in Central Indo-Pacific realm. Suitable unprotected habitats of the complex identified in this study have high priority for conservation and should be included in marine protected areas to ensure species conservation. Our results show that species distribution models are practical tools to study marine species distribution across large spatial scales and help marine conservation planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Masoud Yousefi
- grid.46072.370000 0004 0612 7950School of Biology, College of Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, 14155-6455 Iran
| | - Reza Naderloo
- grid.46072.370000 0004 0612 7950School of Biology, College of Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, 14155-6455 Iran
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Shen Y, Tu Z, Zhang Y, Zhong W, Xia H, Hao Z, Zhang C, Li H. Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of two relict Liriodendron species by coupling the MaxEnt model and actual physiological indicators in relation to stress tolerance. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2022; 322:116024. [PMID: 36055092 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2022] [Revised: 07/19/2022] [Accepted: 08/13/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Climate change has a crucial impact on the distributions of plants, especially relict species. Hence, predicting the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of relict plants is critical for their future conservation. Liriodendron plants are relict trees, and only two natural species have survived: L. chinense and L. tulipifera. However, the extent of the impact of future climate change on the distributions of these two Liriodendron species remains unclear. Therefore, we predicted the suitable habitat distributions of two Liriodendron species under present and future climate scenarios using MaxEnt modeling. The results showed that the area of suitable habitats for two Liriodendron species would significantly decrease. However, the two relict species presented different habitat shift patterns, with a local contraction of suitable habitat for L. chinense and a northward shift in suitable habitat for L. tulipifera, indicating that changes in environmental factors will affect the distributions of these species. Among the environmental factors assessed, May precipitation induced the largest impact on the L. chinense distribution, while L. tulipifera was significantly affected by precipitation in the driest quarter. Furthermore, to explore the relationship between habitat suitability and Liriodendron stress tolerance, we analyzed six physiological indicators of stress tolerance by sampling twelve provenances of L. chinense and five provenances of L. tulipifera. The composite index of six physiological indicators was significantly negatively correlated with the habitat suitability of the species. The stress tolerance of Liriodendron plants in highly suitable areas was lower than that in areas with moderate or low suitability. Overall, these findings improve our understanding of the ecological impacts of climate change, informing future conservation efforts for Liriodendron species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yufang Shen
- Key Laboratory of Forest Genetics and Biotechnology of Ministry of Education, Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China; College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China.
| | - Zhonghua Tu
- Key Laboratory of Forest Genetics and Biotechnology of Ministry of Education, Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China; College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China.
| | - Yali Zhang
- College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China.
| | - Weiping Zhong
- Key Laboratory of Forest Genetics and Biotechnology of Ministry of Education, Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China; College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China.
| | - Hui Xia
- Key Laboratory of Forest Genetics and Biotechnology of Ministry of Education, Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China; College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China.
| | - Ziyuan Hao
- Key Laboratory of Forest Genetics and Biotechnology of Ministry of Education, Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China; College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China.
| | - Chengge Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Forest Genetics and Biotechnology of Ministry of Education, Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China; College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China.
| | - Huogen Li
- Key Laboratory of Forest Genetics and Biotechnology of Ministry of Education, Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China; College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China.
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Zhang L, Li Q, Kou X, Ouyang Z. Distributions of two native ungulates at the third pole are highly sensitive to global warming. Glob Ecol Conserv 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2022.e02292] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
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25
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Ahmad S, Ali H, Asif M, Khan T, Din N, Rehman EU, Hameed S, Din JU, Nawaz MA. Spatial density pattern of Himalayan Ibex (Capra sibirica) in Pakistan. Glob Ecol Conserv 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2022.e02288] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
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26
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Density Pattern of Flare-Horned Markhor (Capra falconeri) in Northern Pakistan. SUSTAINABILITY 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/su14159567] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Wild ungulates play vital roles in maintaining a balanced ecosystem through herbivory and are also an important determinant of carnivores’ density. The flare-horned markhor (Capra falconeri) is a threatened wild goat distributed across the mountain ranges of Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, Russia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. The remote terrain and fragmented population limit our understanding of the population ecology of markhor, though knowledge of the target species population is vital for making informed management decisions. Therefore, the current study was designed to determine the markhor population across their range in Northern Pakistan and to evaluate the efforts made by the government and non-government organizations for the conservation of markhor. Double-observer surveys were conducted during 2019–2021 in nine major watersheds of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan covering an area of 4664 km2. Secondary data were collected for unassessed areas to gain a holistic overview of the markhor population and density in the region. Results revealed a markhor population of 7579, with a density of 0.30 animals per km2 in Northern Pakistan. Our analysis of the double-observer data through the Bayesian behavioral capture–recapture model estimated a population of 5993 individuals (95% CI) of markhor across nine study sites, with a density of 1.28 animals per km2. A review of secondary data revealed that a population of about 1586 was present in the un-surveyed area (20,033.33 km2), with a density of 0.08 per km2. A total of 146 groups of markhor were counted, with a mean group size of 23 (3–58) individuals. There were 109 males and 108 young per 100 females in the population. Among 1936 recorded males, Class I males accounted for 27.74%, followed by Class II (26.45%), Class IV (trophy-size) (23.40%), and Class III (22.42%). The overall detection probability was recorded as 0.87 and 0.68 for the first observer and second observer, respectively. Compared with the past reports, the population of markhor in Northern Pakistan appears to be increasing, particularly in protected areas (PAs) such as national parks and community-controlled hunting areas (CCHAs). Conservation programs, notably trophy hunting and PA networks, appear to be vital in sustaining markhor populations in parts of the species range. We recommend expansion in such programs in the markhor range in order to maintain a viable population of this majestic wild goat in the region.
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Bartlow AW, Giermakowski JT, Painter CW, Neville P, Schultz-Fellenz ES, Crawford BM, Lavadie-Bulnes AF, Thompson BE, Hathcock CD. Modeling the distribution of the endangered Jemez Mountains salamander ( Plethodon neomexicanus) in relation to geology, topography, and climate. Ecol Evol 2022; 12:e9161. [PMID: 36035267 PMCID: PMC9399451 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.9161] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2021] [Revised: 06/30/2022] [Accepted: 07/12/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The Jemez Mountains salamander (Plethodon neomexicanus; hereafter JMS) is an endangered salamander restricted to the Jemez Mountains in north‐central New Mexico, United States. This strictly terrestrial and lungless species requires moist surface conditions for activities such as mating and foraging. Threats to its current habitat include fire suppression and ensuing severe fires, changes in forest composition, habitat fragmentation, and climate change. Forest composition changes resulting from reduced fire frequency and increased tree density suggest that its current aboveground habitat does not mirror its historically successful habitat regime. However, because of its limited habitat area and underground behavior, we hypothesized that geology and topography might play a significant role in the current distribution of the salamander. We modeled the distribution of the JMS using a machine learning algorithm to assess how geology, topography, and climate variables influence its distribution. The best habitat suitability model indicates that geology type and maximum winter temperature (November to March) were most important in predicting the distribution of the salamander (23.5% and 50.3% permutation importance, respectively). Minimum winter temperature was also an important variable (21.4%), suggesting this also plays a role in salamander habitat. Our habitat suitability map reveals low uncertainty in model predictions, and we found slight discrepancies between the designated critical habitat and the most suitable areas for the JMS. Because geological features are important to its distribution, we recommend that geological and topographical data are considered, both during survey design and in the description of localities of JMS records once detected.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew W Bartlow
- Biosecurity & Public Health Group Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos New Mexico USA
| | - J Tomasz Giermakowski
- Museum of Southwestern Biology 1 University of New Mexico Albuquerque New Mexico USA.,Earth Data Analysis Center 1 University of New Mexico Albuquerque New Mexico USA
| | - Charles W Painter
- Endangered Species Program, New Mexico Department of Game and Fish Santa Fe New Mexico USA
| | - Paul Neville
- Earth Data Analysis Center 1 University of New Mexico Albuquerque New Mexico USA
| | - Emily S Schultz-Fellenz
- Earth and Environmental Sciences Division Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos New Mexico USA
| | - Brandon M Crawford
- Earth and Environmental Sciences Division Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos New Mexico USA
| | - Anita F Lavadie-Bulnes
- Earth and Environmental Sciences Division Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos New Mexico USA
| | - Brent E Thompson
- Environmental Stewardship Group Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos New Mexico USA
| | - Charles D Hathcock
- Environmental Stewardship Group Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos New Mexico USA
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Tesfaw A, Senbeta F, Alemu D, Teferi E. Estimating the Economic Values of Restricted Monoculture Eucalyptus Plantations: A Choice Modeling Approach. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:ijerph19159073. [PMID: 35897444 PMCID: PMC9332550 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19159073] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2022] [Revised: 04/01/2022] [Accepted: 04/07/2022] [Indexed: 12/03/2022]
Abstract
Today, evaluating ecological wellbeing and ecosystem services is becoming a great concern towards conserving the natural resource base. Healthy functioning ecosystems have fundamental roles for aiding humankind to lead a healthy life and ensure an improved social welfare. Estimating the non-market benefits of ecosystem services can help experts and the public frame policy directions designed for landscape development. The ecosystem of the Eucalyptus hotspot highlands of northwestern Ethiopia, where this study was carried out, provides services that are essential to changes in the life of the society and biodiversity. However, in recent years, the ecosystem is facing a serious threat from intensive monoculture plantations of Eucalyptus. This has resulted in transformation of the cultural landscapes and a loss of biodiversity. The problem in turn calls for designing appropriate ecological improvement programs. Thus, the current study examined the preferences of residents concerning this area and estimated their willingness to pay (WTP) for the proposed ecosystem improvement programs using a Choice Experiment approach. Data were aggregated from 388 residents using a questionnaire survey in January 2020. The survey contained ecological improvement schemes and a hypothetical event by which respondents expressed their willingness to pay a yearly utility fee as a compensation for the improvement programs. Results showed significant differences in resident preferences towards the proposed ecological improvement attributes. The findings also indicated that the socioeconomic backgrounds of residents contributed for the heterogeneity in their WTP for ecological improvement schemes. Accordingly, the marginal willingness to pay of residents was USD 205/person/year for the respective ecological improvement attributes. The findings suggest that policy makers should consider such attribute-based public preferences while planning landscape development and conservation programs. This study can provide vital policy implications and contribute to knowledge as it presents how the non-market valuations of ecosystems help maximize social welfare.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amare Tesfaw
- Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos P.O. Box 269, Ethiopia
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +251-913-23-30-94
| | - Feyera Senbeta
- Center for Environment and Development Studies, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa P.O. Box 1176, Ethiopia; (F.S.); (E.T.)
| | - Dawit Alemu
- Bilateral Ethio-Netherlands Effort for Food, Income & Trade Partnership (BENEFIT), Addis Ababa P.O. Box 88, Ethiopia;
| | - Ermias Teferi
- Center for Environment and Development Studies, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa P.O. Box 1176, Ethiopia; (F.S.); (E.T.)
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Prediction of the potential distribution of the predatory mite Neoseiulus californicus (McGregor) in China under current and future climate scenarios. Sci Rep 2022; 12:11807. [PMID: 35821252 PMCID: PMC9276784 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-15308-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2022] [Accepted: 06/22/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Neoseiulus californicus is a predatory mite with a wide global distribution that can effectively control a variety of pest mites. In this study, MaxEnt was used to analyse the potential distribution of N. californicus in China and the BCC-CSM2-MR model was used to predict changes in the suitable areas for the mite from 2021 to 2100 under the scenarios of SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585. The results showed that (1) the average of area under curve value of the model was over 0.95, which demonstrated an excellent model accuracy. (2) Annual mean temperature (Bio1), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19), and precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17) were the main climatic variables that affected and controlled the potential distribution of N. californicus, with suitable ranges of 6.97–23.27 °C, 71.36–3924.8 mm, and 41.94–585.08 mm, respectively. (3) The suitable areas for N. californicus were mainly distributed in the southern half of China, with a total suitable area of 226.22 × 104 km2 in current. Under the future climate scenario, compared with the current scenario, lowly and moderately suitable areas of N. californicus increased, while highly suitable areas decreased. Therefore, it may be necessary to cultivate high-temperature resistant strains of N. californicus to adapt to future environmental changes.
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Abstract
Recent studies carried out by landscape and urban ecologists have shown that habitat fragmentation has negative environmental effects and is accountable for the loss of biodiversity. The development and extension of road infrastructure to support economic growth, the urbanization and the land-use changes are major drivers of habitat fragmentation. Planners have attempted to develop tools for restoring connectivity and stopping biodiversity loss at the landscape scale and which can be applied at the urban scale, too. The study fills in the gap by developing a methodology for identifying the ecological corridors of a Romanian large carnivore (brown bear) in the Romanian Carpathian Mountains at several spatial scales. The methodology relies on geospatial data; this is equally its most important advantage and challenge. Our findings suggest that the implementation of ecological corridors in current planning practice must be completed cautiously, provided the possible restrictions are imposed on economic activities by plans, and highlight the importance of field data in increasing the scientific soundness of the results. In addition, the findings show the need to interconnect spatial planning policies with environmental policies by improving the actual legislation.
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Mkala EM, Jost M, Wanke S, Ngarega BK, Hughes A, Mutinda ES, Waswa EN, Mwanzia VM, Oulo MA, Wanga VO, Ngumbau VM, Mwachala G, Hu GW, Wang QF. How vulnerable are holoparasitic plants with obligate hosts to negative climate change impacts? ECOL INFORM 2022; 69:101636. [DOI: https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101636] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/21/2023]
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32
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Mkala EM, Jost M, Wanke S, Ngarega BK, Hughes A, Mutinda ES, Waswa EN, Mwanzia VM, Oulo MA, Wanga VO, Ngumbau VM, Mwachala G, Hu GW, Wang QF. How vulnerable are holoparasitic plants with obligate hosts to negative climate change impacts? ECOL INFORM 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101636] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
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