The impact of COVID-19 on fertility behaviour and intentions in a middle income country

Identifying the effects of large catastrophic shocks on the distribution of births using a combination of Benford's law and the Vector Error Correction Model(VECM)

This study examines the case of Romanian births, jointly distributed by age groups of mother and father, covering the period 1958-2022, under the potential influence of significant disruptors. Demographic shocks like armed conflicts, epidemics, floods, or slave trade are already present in the literature. Therefore, our study searches for the effects of World War II, the 1966 Anti-abortion Decree and COVID-19 shocks on birth distribution. Other legislative and political changes are not marginalized. Applying First Digit Law of Benford we search for anomalies in birth data. Then, following a vector-autoregressive method, we search for a long-term relation between fertility rate and anomaly in birth distribution. We also try to link disruptors and their potential effects as well. We found a statistically significant long term relation between fertility rate and birth distribution by age of parents. We confirm World War II as a major shock, and our results suggest adding the 1966 Anti-abortion Decree to the list of catastrophic events. The current work also reveals a time lag of 15 years between shock and its effects and a persistence of 15 to 20 years. COVID-19 does not impact (yet) the birth distribution by age of parents.

Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 on Fertility: An Integrative Review

This integrative review aimed to explore the impact of the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on fertility to establish foundational knowledge and guide future epidemiological studies. The PubMed and Central Journal of Medicine databases were searched, yielding 80 relevant articles published between 2019 and 2021. Of these, 14 were published in Japanese and 66 in English. None of the Japanese studies met the inclusion criteria. Fourteen English-language studies, all of which were retrieved from PubMed, were included in the final analysis. No relevant literature was found in the Central Journal of Medicine. The keywords used were COVID-19, fertility, and demographics. COVID-19 led to an increase in unplanned pregnancies and abortions in developing countries. Fever associated with the infection was suggested to have reduced sperm concentration and motility, and the spread of the infection caused young couples to delay childbearing, potentially decreasing fertility. Conversely, relatively older couples showed fewer changes in their childbearing plans, indicating that COVID-19 had both positive and negative effects on fertility. Physical, psychological, and economic factors as well as sex, age, and cultural background exerted complex effects on fertility. Herein, the impact of social crises on fertility rates has been discussed in the context of the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Analysing the effects of this pandemic on fertility rates is crucial for understanding future demographic trends and national strengths. This study provides valuable data for future research in this field.

The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on fertility behaviour in Indian states: Evidence from the National Family Health Survey (2019/21)

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic affected a broad spectrum of people's lives very quickly. Although the pandemic could influence people's fertility behaviours in several ways, there is little knowledge about such influence in diverse socioeconomic and cultural settings. This study investigated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility behaviours and desires among women in a lower-middle-income country, India.

DATA AND METHODS

Our study analyzed cross-sectional data from 13 states and union territories (UTs) in India that were surveyed in pre- and post-lockdown periods by the 2019/21 National Family Health Survey (NFHS). The data were analysed using the descriptive analysis technique and the multilevel logit model. All these analyses were performed using the technique developed for complex sample design.

RESULTS

The poverty-stricken states of Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand and the Odisha state with moderate socioeconomic status experienced a significant decrease in contraceptive use and non-significant changes in the desire for birth and sexual activities after the lockdown. Contraceptive use significantly increased after the lockdown in the rich states of Punjab, Delhi, and Tamil Nadu, as well as in the Arunachal Pradesh state with moderate socioeconomic status. The changes in fertility behaviours in Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Odisha may influence fertility positively, while those changes in Punjab, Delhi, Tamil Nadu, and Arunachal Pradesh may influence fertility negatively.

CONCLUSION

At the aggregate level, there was a significant increase in desire for another child and a decrease in contraceptive use after the lockdown, which may influence fertility positively but can be compensated by reduced sexual activities. The influence of the fertility trends in the states with pro-natalist changes on India's recent fertility trend could be greater than those with anti-natalist changes, which can be better understood by analyzing reliable data from a couple of years following the 2019/21 NFHS.

The (temporary) Covid-19 baby bust in Mexico

In this paper, we investigate whether fertility and newborn health changed during the Covid-19 pandemic in Mexico. We use national administrative data and an event-study design to examine the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on fertility and newborn health characteristics. Our findings suggest that Mexico's fertility declined temporarily as measured by conceptions that likely occurred during the stay-at-home order. Initially, the general fertility rate fell by 11-12 per cent but quickly rebounded and returned close to its original levels by the end of 2021. Newborn health also deteriorated during the pandemic. Instances of low birthweight and prematurity substantially increased, with both remaining elevated over the entire pandemic period.

Baby Bump or Baby Slump? COVID-19, Lockdowns, and their Effects on Births in Australia

This study examines changes in birth rates in Australia during the COVID-19 pandemic and the extent to which such changes were influenced by lockdowns. We use natality data at State and small regional area levels spanning the period from 2011 to 2022. In our empirical approach, we first take advantage of a unique quasi-experimental setting that arose in Victoria, Australia's second most populous State, during the first year of the pandemic. Victoria imposed a 111-day stay-at-home lockdown while other States and Territories enforced milder restrictions on social and economic activities. We then exploit lockdowns that lasted more than three months in Victoria and New South Wales in the second year of the pandemic. Within these quasi-experimental settings, our empirical approach was to first use monthly data at the State-level and estimate birth rate deviations from secular trends for the months affected by COVID-19 policies. We also estimate separate models to examine variations in births across regional areas with different compositions of Indigenous population, unemployment, low-income, and non-English speaking residents. Our findings reveal a nationwide fertility increase in 2021, but Victoria exhibited slower growth, especially in areas with higher unemployment, lower income, and more non-English speaking residents. In 2022, we find evidence of a gradual return of birth rates to pre-pandemic trends, though this is mainly concentrated in the major cities. While the second-year lockdowns had limited impacts, language-diverse areas still mostly experienced lower rates of growth in birth rates.

Self-reported condom use among Washington State residents prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional analysis of BRFSS data

OBJECTIVES

COVID-19 significantly impacted healthcare access and sexual behaviour, but little is known about how COVID-19 affected condom use. This study aimed to investigate whether self-reported condom use and sex in Washington State changed during pandemic restrictions compared with prepandemic.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional survey data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System.

SETTING

Washington State.

PARTICIPANTS

11 684 participants aged 18-65.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was changes in the prevalence of condom use by time of interview pre-COVID-19, before the Washington State lockdown (1 January 2019 to 23 March 2020, n=7708) and during COVID-19, after the first state lockdown (24 March 2020 to 31 December 2020, n=3976). The secondary outcome was changes in the prevalence of reported sex during the same periods. We assessed whether associations differed by rurality and HIV risk behaviour.

RESULTS

Condom use was similar during COVID-19 (37.3%) compared with pre-COVID-19 (37.8%) (adjusted prevalence ratio (PR): 0.98, 95% CI 0.89, 1.01). Associations did not differ by rurality or HIV risk behaviour. Compared with pre-COVID-19 (83.0%), a smaller proportion of respondents reported having sex in the last 12 months during COVID-19 (80.5%), a relative decrease of 3% (PR: 0.97, 95% CI 0.96, 0.99; p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of reported sex declined during COVID-19, but condom use remained steady in Washington. As our reproductive health system faces increased challenges, these results may inform future sexual health services.

Social Climate, Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions: from the Great Recession to the Covid-19 Crisis

The literature on fertility in context of crises considers major crises exclusively as economic experiences, however, they are also social phenomena, affecting communities, morality and social interactions. When changes in the social climate are of a sufficient magnitude, they tend to break down the social fabric and generate additional uncertainty, more of a social form, which may affect reproductive decisions beyond economic uncertainty alone. Applying Fixed Effects Models to 18 waves of the Swiss Household Panel (2004-2021), this study evaluates the relationship between changes in social climate and social uncertainty and first and second order childbearing intentions, net of economic uncertainty, sociodemographic determinants and unobserved time-invariant individual and local area characteristics. Canton-level mean and variance of generalized trust and optimism about the future are used as proxies of the quality and the unpredictability of the social climate respondents live in. Besides parity, the study explores period variation by comparing the time around the Great Recession (before, during and after) and the years around the Covid-19 pandemic. Results show that the worsening of the social climate and its growing uncertainty correlate with lower and more uncertain first and second birth intentions. Yet, important parity-period interactions emerge.

Childcare burden and changes in fertility desires of mothers during the COVID-19 pandemic

Objectives

Previous studies have documented a decline in fertility desires and intentions following the COVID-19 outbreak, but the reasons for this decline are not well understood. This study examined whether childcare burden on mothers during the lockdown and quarantines, COVID-related stress, and COVID exposure were associated with a change in the desired number of children.

Methods

The survey was conducted online, in Poland from April to July 2021 on a sample of 622 non-pregnant mothers without diagnosed infertility.

Results

Associations were observed between childcare responsibilities during the quarantine and fertility desires: mothers who solely or mainly took care of their children during the quarantine(s) were more likely to decrease their desired number of children ([adjusted] aOR = 1.91, 95% CI = 1.16-3.15). Mothers with higher levels of COVID-related stress (aOR = 1.81, 95% CI = 1.48-2.22) and a greater COVID exposure index (aOR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.12-1.72) were more likely to decrease their fertility desires.

Conclusion

Higher childcare burden during quarantines was related to a lower desired number of children among mothers. Both greater COVID-related stress and COVID exposure were associated with fertility desires, regardless of childcare responsibilities during the pandemic.

The relationship between staying at home during the pandemic and the number of conceptions: A national panel data analysis

hether the COVID-19 pandemic has changed fertility patterns is still an open question, as social isolation for long periods can impact the number of conceptions in many ways. We combine administrative data on all recent births in Brazil with daily data on individual location to estimate the relationship between the share of individuals staying close to their homes in each week and the number of conceptions in that same week, comparing municipalities with different social isolation patterns during the first semester of 2020. We find that conceptions unequivocally decline when social isolation increases. The effect is stronger for women who are between 21 and 25 years old and more educated, as well as for richer, larger, and more urban municipalities. COVID-19 is likely to change fertility across countries depending on the behavior of the population and on the lock-down measures implemented to fight the pandemic.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on contraceptive methods, abortion, and unintended pregnancy: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

By creating an international emergency, the COVID-19 pandemic may have led to compromised reproductive health care, including family planning services, and thus increased unintended pregnancies and unsafe abortions. This study was conducted to compare methods of contraception, abortion, and unintended pregnancies in those served by the health centers of Babol city in Iran, both before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted including 425 participants registered to the health centers of Babol city, Mazandaran province, Iran. Using a multi-stage method, 6 urban health centers and 10 rural centers were selected for inclusion. Proportional allocation method was used for sampling those who met the inclusion criteria. A questionnaire was used to collect data in relation to individual characteristics and reproductive behaviors via 6 questions focused upon methods and preparation of contraception, number and type of abortions, and number and causes of unintended pregnancy from July to November 2021. The data were analyzed using SPSS software version 26. Significance level was considered to be p < 0.05 in all tests.

RESULTS

Most participants aged between 20 and 29 years old had a diploma level of education, were housewives and lived in the city. Prior to the pandemic, 32.0% used modern contraceptive methods and 31.6% used these during the pandemic. No change in the combination of contraceptive methods used was observed between these two periods. Approximately two-thirds used the withdrawal method in both periods. The majority of participants in both periods purchased their contraceptives from a pharmacy. Unintended pregnancy increased from 20.4% prior to the pandemic to 25.4% during the pandemic. Abortions increased from 19.1% prior to the pandemic to 20.9% during the pandemic, although these findings were not found to be statistically significant. Contraceptive methods had a statistically significant relationship with age, education, spouse's education, spouse's occupation, and place of residence. The number of unintended pregnancies had a significant relationship with age, the educational level of both participants and their spouses and socio-economic status, and the number of abortions had a statistically significant relationship with the age and education level of the spouse (p > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Despite there being no change in contraceptive methods compared to the pre-pandemic period, an increase in the number of unintended pregnancies, abortions and illegal abortions was observed. This may be indicative of an unmet need for family planning services during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The impact of COVID-19 on the intention of third-child in China: an empirical analysis based on survey data

BACKGROUND

Against the grim background of declining intention to have children, the ravages of COVID-19 have pushed China and the world into a more complex social environment. To adapt to the new situation, the Chinese government implemented the three-child policy in 2021.

OBJECTIVE

COVID-19 pandemic indirectly affects the country's internal economic development, employment, fertility plans or intention, and other major issues related to the people's livelihood, while undermining the stable operation of society. This paper explores the question that will COVID-19 pandemic affect Chinese people's intention to have a third child. And What are the relevant factors inside?

METHOD

The data in this paper are from the Survey released by the Population Policy and Development Research Center of Chongqing Technology and Business University (PDPR-CTBU), including 10,323 samples from mainland China. This paper uses the logit regression model and KHB mediated effect model (a binary response model given by Karlson, Holm, and Breen) to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors on Chinese residents' intention to have a third child.

RESULTS

The results suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic has a negative effect on Chinese residents' intention to have a third child. In-depth research on the mediating effect of KHB shows that COVID-19 pandemic will further inhibit residents' intention to have a third child by affecting their childcare arrangements, increasing their childcare costs, and increasing their exposure to occupational hazards.

CONTRIBUTION

This paper is more pioneering in focusing on the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the intention to have three children in China. The study provides empirical evidence for understanding the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on fertility intentions, albeit in the context of policy support.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the attitude towards childbearing of married aged 20-30 Turkish women who are not yet mothers: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has not only changed physical health and the economy, but also changed plans for the future with its impact on social status and mental health. Changes in fertility preferences in many countries are also part of this influence. We aimed to evaluate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on attitude toward the childbearing in women.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted on married aged 20-30 Turkish women who are not yet mothers, between January and June 2022, using Google forms. The questionnaire consisted of the sociodemographic data form, The Attitude towards Fertility and Childbearing Scale, and the Fear of COVID-19 Scale. In addition, women were asked about their exposure to COVID-19 and the severity of their illness.

RESULTS

Only one-third of participants said they would like to have children in the next year; 61.2% would consider them later, while 4.5% did not. Common reasons for not intending to have children were "it is early to become a mother (34%)", "economic difficulties (25.3%)", and "career plans (16%)". The fear of COVID-19 scale score, with an arithmetic mean of 16.8 ± 5.5, was found to be significantly lower in women who did not want to have children in the next year than in women who wanted to have children (p = 0.042). Except for the profession, there was no significant difference between the COVID-19 fear scores by the participants' sociodemographic characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

Among the married aged 20-30 Turkish women who are not yet mothers, the rate of those who intend to childbearing was found still low. The main reason for women who did not want to have children in the next year was that they thought it was too early to have a child. Besides low fear of COVID-19 scale scores; economic concerns and career plans, which came in second and third place in the reason list, showed that the fear of infected with SARS-CoV-2 during the pandemic did not affect the women's attitudes toward fertility.

Comparing reproductive intentions before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Reproductive behaviors and intentions are affected by several factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. This study was conducted with the aim of comparing the intention to reproduce and its causes in Iran during the period prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

This descriptive-comparative study included 425 cisgender women from 6 urban health centers and 10 rural centers in Babol city, Mazandaran province, Iran. Urban and rural health centers were selected using a multi-stage approach with proportional allocation. A questionnaire was used to collect data in relation to individual characteristics and reproductive intentions.

RESULTS

Most participants aged between 20 and 29 years had a diploma level of education, were housewives and lived in the city. The intention to reproduce decreased from 11.4% before the pandemic to 5.4% during the pandemic (p = 0.006). The most common reason for wanting to have children prior to the pandemic was not having children (54.2%). During the pandemic, a desire to reach the ideal number of children was the most common reason to want to have children (59.1%), though no statistically significant difference was observed between the two periods (p = 0.303). The most common reason for not wanting to have children in both periods was having enough children already (45.2% before and 40.9% during the pandemic). The reasons for not wanting to have children had a statistically significant difference between the two periods (p < 0.001). Reproductive intentions had a statistically significant relationship with the variables of age (p < 0.001), the education level of both participants (p < 0.001) and spouses (p = 0.006), occupation (p = 0.004), and socio-economic status (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Despite restrictions and lockdowns, the COVID-19 pandemic had a negative impact on people's desire to reproduce in this context. Economic problems caused by the sanctions which increased during the COVID-19 crisis may be one of the reasons for a reduction in people's intentions to become parents. Future research could usefully investigate whether this decrease in the desire to reproduce will lead to significant changes in population level and future birth rates.

Determining the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Availability, Use, and Readiness of Family Planning and Contraceptive Services at Selected Primary Health Care Facilities in Africa and Asia: Protocol for a Mixed Methods Study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated social restrictions may have disrupted the provision of essential services, including family planning (FP) and contraceptive services. This protocol is adapted from a generic study protocol titled "Health systems analysis and evaluations of the barriers to availability and readiness of sexual and reproductive health services in COVID-19 affected areas," conducted by the World Health Organization (WHO) Department of Reproductive Health and Research.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to assess the availability and use of FP and contraceptive services in primary health facilities during and after the COVID-19 pandemic; assess the risk perceptions of COVID-19 stigma, barriers to access, and quality of services from clients' and providers' perspectives in the COVID-19-affected areas; and assess the postpandemic recovery of the facilities in the provision of FP and contraceptive services.

METHODS

In-depth interviews will be conducted with clients-women in the reproductive age group and their male partners who visit the selected health facilities for FP and contraceptive services-and health providers (the most knowledgeable person on FP and contraceptive service provision) at the selected health facilities. Focus group discussions will be conducted with clients at the selected health facilities and in the community. The in-depth interviews and focus group discussions will help to understand clients' and health service providers' perspectives of FP and contraceptive service availability and readiness in COVID-19-affected areas. A cross-sectional health facility assessment will be conducted in all the selected health facilities to determine the health facility infrastructure's ability and readiness to provide FP and contraceptive services and to capture the trends in FP and contraceptive services available during the COVID-19 pandemic. Scientific approval for this study is obtained from the WHO Research Project Review Panel, and the WHO Ethics Review Committee has given ethical approval in the 3 countries.

RESULTS

Using a standardized research protocol will ensure that the results from this study can be compared across regions and countries. The study was funded in March 2021. It received ethics approval from the WHO Ethics Review Committee in February 2022. We completed data collection in September 2022. We plan to complete the data analysis by March 2023. We plan to publish the study results by Summer 2023.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings from this study will provide a better understanding of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on FP and contraceptive services at the facility level, which will help policy makers and health managers develop and strengthen FP policies and services in health facilities to be more responsive to community needs.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/43329.

The impact of COVID-19 on the number of births in Yucatan, Mexico

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the number of births in Yucatan, Mexico during 2020 and 2021.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A total of 470 651 live births occurred in Yucatan from January 1st, 2008, to December 31st, 2021, and were included in the analysis. The monthly number of births observed during January 2008-February 2020 was used to describe pre-pandemic trends. Time-series analysis was applied to examine whether the number of births observed from December 2020 (9 months after the beginning of the pandemic) to December 2021 differed from the expected values. Trends in the number of births according to maternal age, parity and education were examined to identify changes differentiated by sociodemographic characteristics.

RESULTS

The number of births in 2021 decreased by 18% (5869 births) compared with 2019, which represents a reduction from 12.89 to 12.48 per thousand inhabitants. The observed number of births from December 2020 to July 2021 was significantly lower than the figure expected. April (expected = 2863 vs. observed = 1722), May (expected = 2948 vs. observed = 1990), and June (expected = 2997 vs. observed = 1978) 2021 showed the largest differences between expected and observed values. Then, from August to December 2021, the observed number of births fell within the expected range. Birth decline was slightly more pronounced among mothers between 20 and 29 years of age and in those without previous offspring.

CONCLUSION

We provide evidence of birth decline in Yucatan during the COVID-19 pandemic. Birth rate reduction in Yucatan doubled the world average and young women without children were the most affected.

Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on women's fertility intentions and its policy implications for China and the rest of the world: a perspective essay

The COVID-19 pandemic and its social, economic, and health implications have generally reduced women's fertility intentions in different countries. In this article, we aimed to review studies of the impact of COVID-19 infection on women's fertility intentions and interventions to provide a theoretical basis and practical benchmark for the development of effective intervention strategies in China, which lifted its zero COVID system in early December 2022.

Childbearing decisions and related factors in the COVID-19 pandemic: A narrative review study

The COVID-19 pandemic has had considerable consequences in many areas of life, including the social area and childbearing plans. The present narrative review aimed to examine the childbearing decisions and its related factors during the COVID-19 pandemic. This review was conducted by searching in scientific databases, including Web of Science, Science Direct, Google Scholar, Scopus, Cochrane, PubMed, ProQuest, Scientific Information Database (SID), Iranian Research Institute for Information Science and Technology (IranDoc) and Iranian Journal Database (Magiran) in June 2022. The search resulted in 111 sources, of which 16 were in line with the research objective. Couples have mainly cancelled or delayed their previous plans related to childbearing decisions. There are two groups of direct and indirect factors related to childbearing decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic: The former includes (1) well-being-related factors such as economic conditions, interpersonal relationships and gender roles in terms of task division; and (2) health-related factors, including health emergencies and physical and psychological health. The latter includes factors such as social distancing and social media. Based on the results, governments should facilitate childbearing by adjusting existing policies, addressing economic insecurity and protecting the livelihoods of those affected by the crisis. Health policymakers and planners must also prioritize women's access to reproductive health services in a safe environment while promoting equity in access. It is also necessary to promote the quality and quantity of indirect care and virtual counseling based on the needs of women in crisis.

Factors Associated with Fertility Intention among Chinese Married Youth during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Using the childbearing survey data from Hubei Province in March 2022, this article empirically analyzed the status quo of fertility intention and its influencing factors among Chinese married youth during the COVID-19 pandemic. In our analysis, fertility intention was operationalized as the ideal number of children and short-term fertility plan. Statistical results showed that the average ideal number of children stood at 1.652, which was lower than the population replacement level, whilst only 16.4% of married youth had a short-term fertility plan. By utilizing a binary logit regression model and the sheaf coefficient technique, we found that COVID-19-induced factors (i.e., change in the marital relationship during the epidemic, delayed pregnancy preparation due to vaccination) had a more stable effect on fertility intention, especially on short-term fertility planning. Parenting perception characteristics exerted a great impact on the ideal number of children but a relatively small impact on short-term fertility planning. Meanwhile, married youth with stable jobs and a high family income did not necessarily show stronger fertility intentions than those with fewer socioeconomic resources. In addition, the findings also reveal that the relative importance of fertility-influencing factors could vary at different fertile stages, which have valuable implications for population policy in Chinese contexts.

The impact of lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility intentions

Lockdown edicts during the COVID-19 pandemic have led to concerns about consequences for childbirth plans and decisions. Robust empirical research to either refute or confirm these concerns, however, is lacking. To evaluate the causal impact of lockdowns on fertility, we exploited a large sample of Australians (aged 18-45) from a nationally representative household panel survey and leveraged variation from a unique natural experiment that occurred in Australia in 2020: a lockdown imposed in the state of Victoria, but not elsewhere in Australia. Difference-in-differences models were estimated comparing changes in fertility intentions of persons who resided in Victoria during lockdown, or within four weeks of the lockdown being lifted, and those living elsewhere in Australia. Results revealed a significantly larger decline in reported intentions of having another child among women who lived through the protracted lockdown. The average effect was small, with fertility intentions estimated to fall by between 2.8% and 4.3% of the pre-pandemic mean. This negative effect was, however, more pronounced among those aged over 35 years, the less educated, and those employed on fixed-term contracts. Impacts on men's fertility intentions were generally negligible, but with a notable exception being Indigenous Australians.

Projecting Spanish fertility at regional level: A hierarchical Bayesian approach

The transition from a demographic regime of high mortality and high fertility to one with low mortality and low fertility is universal and comes along with the process of socio-economic modernization. The Spanish total fertility rate has decreased to below replacement levels in the last decades. The decline has persisted since the 1960s and is diverse across the country. Based on that diversity, the use of population forecasts, not only at national but at regional levels, for planning purposes (governments and private sector) with large horizons has become a must to provide essential services. Using a Bayesian hierarchical model we constructed probabilistic fertility forecasts for Spain at the regional level. Although this approach is already issued by the United Nations little research has been done focusing on the Spanish subnational level. Our objective is to disaggregate the national projections of the total fertility rate for Spain into regional forecasts. The results of this research will show the model fitting, first to the national level and then using a multifaceted and continuous evolution of fertility over time, at the regional level, to check its convergence.

The Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Fertility Intentions of Women with Childbearing Age in China

On 31 May 2021, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed the policy that a couple can have three children, and rolled out more supportive measures to further optimize the fertility policies. However, while the Chinese government is further optimizing its fertility policy, the sudden outbreak of COVID-19 is raging around the world, which threatens the implementation of China's fertility optimization policy. Based on this, this paper firstly explores the impact of COVID-19 on women's fertility intentions. Secondly, based on the Theory of Planned Behavior, this paper constructs a structural equation model to quantitatively reveal the specific factors that affect women's fertility intentions under the epidemic, as well as their impact paths, and then puts forward corresponding suggestions for the government to solve the problem of fertility, aiming at delaying population aging and optimizing population structure. The research results show that: (1) COVID-19 lowers the fertility intentions of women of childbearing age. (2) During the pandemic, economic pressure emerged as the biggest factor affecting women's fertility intentions. The decline in income caused by the pandemic has become an important factor in preventing women from having children. (3) The conflict between work and childbearing is still an important factor affecting the fertility intentions of women of childbearing age. The government's provision of perfect childcare services and their strengthening of the protection of women's employment rights and interests will greatly reduce women's anxiety about childbearing.